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STATE OF THE ART REVIEW Guidelines, Adaptation Strategies and Plans at regional and local level

Francesca Giordano (ISPRA) Rosa Anna Mascolo (ISPRA)

DRAFT REPORT

WORKSHOP Life Project ACT - Adapting to Climate change in Time No LIFE08 ENV/IT/000436 Rome, July the 19th-21st 2010


CONTENTS INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................... - 1 PART 1. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY CONCEPTS .................................. - 3 1.1 A brief overview on climate change ................................................................................... - 3 1.2 Defining adaptation: a multidimensional concept................................................................ - 4 1.3 Fundamental concepts in adaptation: climate change impacts, vulnerability and risk .......... - 6 1.4 Impacts of Europe’s climate change ................................................................................... - 8 PART 2. SETTING THE FRAMEWORK AT EUROPEAN AND MEMBER STATES LEVEL ........................................................................................................................................ - 11 2.1 EU policy framework ....................................................................................................... - 11 2.2 National Adaptation Strategies and Plans in Europe ......................................................... - 13 PART 3. FROM THEORY: REGIONAL AND LOCAL GUIDELINES FOR ADAPTATION- 17 3.1 Key features of existing regional and local guidelines....................................................... - 17 3.1.1 Gaining political backing and managerial commitment.................................................. - 20 3.1.2 Embedding climate change adaptation within existing plans, policies and programmes . - 22 3.1.3 Developing an evidence base......................................................................................... - 22 3.1.4 Identification of key vulnerabilities ............................................................................... - 25 3.1.5 Selection and assessment of adaptation options ............................................................. - 31 3.1.6 Stakeholder engagement and communication ................................................................ - 41 3.1.7 Monitoring, evaluation and review............................................................................... - 45 3.2 Barriers to overcome ........................................................................................................ - 48 PART 4. TO PRACTICE: REGIONAL AND LOCAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND PLANS......................................................................................................................................... - 51 4.1 Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans: some examples in and outside Europe- 51 4.2 Learning form the Mediterranean Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans ........ - 53 4.2.1 General information ...................................................................................................... - 54 4.2.2 The knowledge base framework .................................................................................... - 55 4.2.3 Stakeholder involvement and communication................................................................ - 56 4.2.4 Adaptation options ........................................................................................................ - 57 4.2.5 Monitoring, evaluation and review ................................................................................ - 58 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... - 60 ANNEX I – Analysis scheme of the Adaptation Regional and Local Strategies/Plans............. - 61 ANNEX II - Climate and socio-economic scenarios................................................................. - 105 ANNEX III - Adaptive capacity ............................................................................................... - 110 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................... - 115 -

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INTRODUCTION This document is intended to provide a state of the art review of the existing European and international Guidelines for the formulation of Regional and Local Strategies and Plans for the adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, an inventory of the Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans implemented in Europe, with a particular focus on the Mediterranean case studies is provided. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches were analyzed by means of an appropriate analysis scheme drawn on the basis of the literature reviewed. The document is therefore divided into four parts. In particular, Part 1 and Part 2 describe the general key concepts on adaptation and define the framework of adaptation policies at European and Member States level: -

PART 1: Adaptation to climate change: key concepts provides the basic knowledge about climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation;

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PART 2: Setting the framework at European and Member States level presents the EU policy framework on adaptation and provides an overview about the National Strategies and Plans developed and in progress within the EU.

Part 3 and Part 4 pave the way, from theory to practice, for the development of an adaptation policy framework at regional and local level: -

PART 3: From theory: Regional and Local Guidelines for Adaptation describes the key features of existing Guidelines for adaptation at Regional and Local level and points out strengths and weaknesses found;

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PART 4: To practice: Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans provides an overview of the main Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans developed in and outside Europe. Furthermore, a comparative assessment aiming at the analysis of strengths and weaknesses of the most representative Mediterranean case studies is provided (see also Annex I).


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PART 1. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY CONCEPTS 1.1 A brief overview on climate change Life on Earth as we know it today is made possible by relatively warm temperatures. Without gases like water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane in the atmosphere, the Earth would be much colder than it is now and most of the water on the planet would be frozen. At certain levels, these “greenhouse gases” make the planet liveable for humans and many other kinds of plants and animals by trapping some of the heat radiating outward from the Earth, much like the walls of a greenhouse trap heated air. This process of limiting heat loss through the atmosphere is called the “greenhouse effect” (Figure 1).

Fig. 1 - Greenhouse effect.

Through daily activities such as burning fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, natural gas), agricultural practices, and clearing forests, humans have released large amounts of heat trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in a short period of time (Table 1). Since about 1750 this rapid and large release of greenhouse gases has caused important changes in the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere and, consequently, in our global climate. Greenhouse gas

Percent change 1750-2005

2005 atmospheric concentration

Historical perspective on current concentration Higher than any in the past 650,000 years

Carbon dioxide

+35%

379 ppm

Methane

+142%

1,774 ppb

Higher than any in at least 650,000 years

Nitrous oxide

+18%

319 ppb

Appears to be higher than any in the past 650,000 years

Major sources, human and natural

Fossil fuel use, deforestation and land use changes, agriculture, cement production, decomposition of organic matter, oxidation of organic carbon in soils, oceans Agriculture, fossil fuel use, ruminants (e.g., cows) and manure management, landfills, wetlands, decomposition of organic matter Agriculture, fossil fuel use, animal manure management, sewage treatment, nitric acid production, variety of biological sources in soil and water

Table 1 – Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations between 1750 (the start of the Industrial Age) and 2005. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are measured in parts per million (ppm), which refers to the total number of carbon dioxide molecules per one million molecules of dry air by volume. Methane and nitrous oxide are measured in parts per billion (ppb).Source(s): IPCC 2001a, USEPA 2006abc, IPCC 2007b.

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As summarised by the 4th IPCC Report, based on climate observations series, global warming is accelerating, most probably as a result of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Global average temperature (land and ocean) in 2007 was 0.8 °C above the pre-industrial level (defined as the 1850–1899 average; the increase over land only was 1.0 °C). Eleven of the 12 years between 1996 and 2007 rank among the 12 warmest years (the exception being 1996). The warmest two years on record were 2005 and 1998. The rate of increase of global average temperature has increased from an average of 0.1°C per decade over the past 100 years to 0.2 °C per decade over the past 10 years. This increase has already had a considerable impact on many physical and biological systems worldwide. Access to safe drinking water is becoming more and more limited. Biodiversity is at risk with 20–30% of plant and animal species likely to become endangered if temperatures continue to rise. The risk of famine is increasing and the number of people at risk could become as high as several hundred million. Rising sea levels threaten the Nile, Ganges and Mekong deltas and could displace over 1 million people in each delta by 2050. Many small-island states have already been affected by increased sea levels. Human and animal health is also at risk. Extreme weather events could lead to a substantial rise in infectious diseases. Many of these risks are most strongly felt in the developing world where famine and natural disasters occur more frequently. However, this does not mean that Europe is safe. Its natural environment, society and economy will all be affected by climate change. Water scarcity will only increase in Southern Europe and coastal zones will continue to be at risk of rising sea levels. In addition, the energy sector will face great strain as there will be a higher demand for air conditioning and extreme weather could threaten energy infrastructure1. Climate change will lead also to significant economic and social impacts with some regions and sectors likely to bear greater adverse affects. Certain sections of society (the elderly, disabled, lowincome households) are also expected to suffer more (IPCC, 2007a; IPCC 2007b).

1.2 Defining adaptation: a multidimensional concept Addressing climate change requires two types of response. Firstly, and importantly, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) generated by human activities (mitigation strategy) and secondly we must take adaptation action to deal with the unavoidable impacts. In the light of this, as stressed by the “EU White Paper on Adaptation” (EC, 2009), mitigation needs to be necessarily coupled with adaptation actions. These, be they anticipatory or reactive, represent the only viable option to cope with unavoidable climate change impacts that mitigation cannot eliminate. We need therefore to take measures to adapt. Adaptation is not an alternative to mitigation, but rather a complementary approach: the greater the commitment to mitigation, the smaller the effort in terms of adaptation, and vice versa. Adaptation and mitigation are both viable strategies to combat damages due to climate change. However they tackle the problem from completely different angles and work at different spatial and time scales. Mitigation is “global” and “long term” while adaptation is “local” and “shorter term”. This has several important implications. Firstly, mitigation can be considered as a permanent solution to anthropogenic climate change. Indeed, once abated, one ton of say CO2, cannot produce damage anymore (unless its removal is temporary like in the case of carbon capture and sequestration provided by forests or agricultural land). In contrast, adaptation is more temporary as it typically addresses current or expected damages. It thus may require adjustments should the damage change or be substantially different from what was originally expected (Bosello et al., 2009). Secondly, the effects of mitigation and adaptation occur at different times. Mitigation is constrained by “long-term climatic inertia”, while adaptation by a “shorter-term, social-economic inertia”. In 1 http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/newsanddoc/article_4059_en.htm.

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other words, emission reductions today will translate in a lower temperature increase and ultimately lower damage only in the (far) future, whereas adaptation measures, once implemented, are immediately effective in reducing the damage. This differentiation is particularly relevant under the policy making perspective: probably, the stronger reason for the scarce appeal of mitigation policies is their “certain” and “present” cost facing a future and thus uncertain benefit. This can be less of an issue for adaptation. Thirdly, mitigation provides a “global”, whereas adaptation provides a “local” response to anthropogenic climate change. The benefits induced by a ton of carbon abated are experienced irrespectively of where this ton has been abated. Differently, adaptation entails measures implemented locally whose benefits advantage primarily the local communities targeted. Adaptation to climate change received a wide set of definitions, by the scientific and the policy environment (see the Box – Definitions of adaptation). Definitions of adaptation “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation” (IPCC 4AR, 2007). “Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change. For example, flood walls should be built and in numerous cases it is probably advisable to move human settlements out of flood plains and other low-lying areas…” (UNFCCC). “…a process by which strategies to moderate, cope with and take advantage of the consequences of climatic events are enhanced, developed, and implemented” (UNDP, 2005). “The process or outcome of a process that leads to a reduction in harm or risk of harm, or realization of benefits associated with climate variability and climate change” (UKCIP, 2003). Source: Harley et al., 2008. The large number of not always coincident definitions already highlights a specific problem concerning adaptation: it is a process that can take the most diverse forms depending on where and when it occurs and on who is adapting to what. Adaptation can be identified along three dimensions: - the subject of adaptation: who or what adapts; - the object of adaptation: what they adapt to; - the way in which adaptation takes place: how they adapt. The subject of adaptation: who or what adapts. Adaptation materialises in changes in ecological, social and/or economic systems. These changes can be the result of natural responses and in this case they usually involve organisms or species, or of socio-economic or institutional reactions in which case they are undertaken by individual or collective actors, private or public agents. The object of adaptation: what they adapt to. In the case of climate change, adaptive responses can be induced either by changes in average conditions or by changes in variability of extreme events. While in the first case the change is slow and usually falls within the “coping range” of systems, in the second case changes are abrupt and outside this coping range . How adaptation occurs: modes, resources and results. The existing literature proposes several criteria that can be used to identify the different adaptation processes. Table 2 offers a tentative summary of this classification based upon spatial and temporal aspects, forms and evaluation of performances.

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Concept or Attribute Purposefulness Timing Temporal Scope Spatial Scope Function/Effects Form Valuation of Performance

Autonomous → Planned Anticipatory → Reactive, Responsive Short term → Long term Localised → Widespread Retreat – accommodate – protect – prevent Structural – legal – institutional Effectiveness-efficiency-equity-feasibility

Table 2: Adaptation: Possible criteria for classification. Source: Adapted from S. Fankhauser et al., 1999.

1.3 Fundamental concepts in adaptation: climate change impacts, vulnerability and risk Climate change impacts, vulnerability and risk are distinct but related concepts (Figure 2). The IPCC provides official definition of such concepts. Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). Mitigation

GHG Emission

Climate change

Exposure

Socioeconomic and institutional capacity

Sensitivity

Willingness to adapt

Adaptive capacity

Potential impacts

Vulnerability

Human systems and the natural environment

Adaptation

Fig. 2: Conceptual diagram for climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Source: European Environment Agency, 2008. Impacts of Europe’s changing climate: 2008 indicator based assessment (Ch. 6. Adaptation to climate change).

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The impacts are the effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: - potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation. - residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Vulnerability = function [exposure (+); sensitivity (+); adaptive capacity (-)] Systems that are sensitive to climate and less able to adapt to changes are generally considered to be vulnerable to damage from climate change, as they are sensitive to changes in climate and have limited capacity to adapt to those changes (Harley et al., 2008). Various factors influence exposure, including:  location in risk-prone areas (e.g. flood zones, urban heat islands, drought-prone areas, mountain areas, coasts and estuaries);  for households: quality of housing (e.g. high degree of thermal isolation of houses reduce the rate of heat transfer);  for biodiversity: geographic mobility (e.g. species that are unable to avoid climate hazards such as flood water or soil-drying are more exposed to the impact). Factors influencing sensitivity, include:  for socio-economic groups: physical and mental health, age;  for sectors: extent to which products and services are affected by climate stimuli;  for assets and infrastructure: extent to which physical structure and services derived from those structures are affected by climate stimuli;  for ecosystems: the health, connectivity and robustness of the ecosystem will determine its sensitivity to climate impacts. Finally, adaptive capacity is influenced by key factors, including:  access and ability to process information on climate change;  ability to spread risk (e.g. through insurance);  resources to invest in adaptation;  flexibility of system to change in response to climate stimuli;  willingness to change and adapt within the region but also on the supra-regional and national level;  ability for species to migrate or for ecosystems to expand/ shift gradually into new zones. As a result, groups and systems that tend to have low adaptive capacity include older people, low income households and ethnic or linguistic minorities; enterprises running on a modest working capital and dependent of weather conditions such as small farming and fishing businesses/ families and self-employed professionals and fragile and highly specialized ecosystems (Ribeiro M. et al., 2009). The concept of risk is often confused with vulnerability. Risk relates to a characteristic of a system or a decision where the probability that certain state or outcomes have occurred or may occur is precisely known. Risk assessments combine the probability of an event occurring, with the impact or consequence associated with that event.

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1.4 Impacts of Europe’s climate change The severity of the impacts of climate change varies by region. The most vulnerable regions in Europe are Southern Europe, the Mediterranean Basin, Outermost regions and the Arctic. Furthermore, mountain areas in particular the Alps, islands, coastal and urban areas and densely populated floodplains are facing particular problems. Outside Europe, developing countries (including small island states) will remain particularly vulnerable. Climate change will impact a number of natural systems and socio-economic sectors (Figure 3; Table 3).

Fig. 3: Synthesis scheme of the potential impacts of climate change. Source: Environment DG based on EEA, 2008, OECD 2008 and TEEB.

In agriculture projected climate changes will affect crop yields, livestock management and the location of production. The increasing likelihood and severity of extreme weather events will considerably increase the risk of crop failure. Climate change will also affect soil by depleting organic matter – a major contributor to soil fertility. The effects of climate change on forests are likely to include changes in forest health and productivity and changes to the geographic range of certain tree species. Climate change will be an added stress for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Effects will also be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems. Coastal erosion rates will increase and existing defences may provide insufficient protection. In this context, islands and outermost regions deserve special consideration. In the energy sector, climate change will have a direct effect on both the supply and demand of energy. The projected impact of climate change on precipitation and glacier melt indicate that hydropower production could increase by 5% or more in northern Europe and decrease by 25% or more in southern Europe. Decreased precipitation and heat waves are also expected to influence negatively the cooling process of thermal power plants. On the demand side, increasing summer peaks for cooling and impacts from extreme weather events will affect in particular electricity distribution. Extreme climate events cause huge economic and social impacts. Infrastructure (buildings, transport, energy and water supply) is affected, posing a specific threat to densely populated areas. The situation could be exacerbated by the rise in sea level. A more strategic and long-term approach -8-


to spatial planning will be necessary, both on land and on marine areas, including in transport, regional development, industry, tourism and energy policies. Tourism is likely to suffer from decreasing snow cover in Alpine areas and from increasing temperatures in Mediterranean regions. Unsustainable forms of tourism can exacerbate the negative effects of climate change. Changing weather conditions will also have profound effects on human, animal and plant health. As extreme events become more frequent, weather-related deaths and diseases could rise. Climate change could also increase the spread of serious infectious vector-borne transmissible diseases including zoonoses2. Climate change will threaten animal wellbeing and could also impact plant health, favouring new or migrant harmful organisms, which could adversely affect trade in animals, plants and their products. Projected effect

Examples of projected impacts with high confidence of occurrence

Over most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights, warmer and more frequent hot days and nights.

Increased yields in colder environments; decreased yields in warmer environments; increased insect outbreaks. Effects on water resources relying on snow melt; effects on some water supply. Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure. Reduced energy demand for heating; increased demand for cooling; declining air quality in cities; reduced disruption to transport due to snow, ice; effects on winter tourism.

Virtually certain (>99% probability of occurrence)

Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas. Very likely (90 to 99% of probability)

Heavy precipitation events. Frequency increases over most areas. Very likely (90 to 99% of probability)

Reduced yields in warmer regions due to heat stress; wild fire danger increase. Increased water demand; water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms. Increased risk of heat-related mortality, especially for the elderly, chronically sick, very young and socially isolated. Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without appropriate housing; impacts on elderly, very young and poor. Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to cultivate land due to water logging of soils. Adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater; contamination of water supply; water scarcity may be relieved. Increased risk of deaths, injuries, infectious, respiratory and skin diseases. Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding; pressures on urban and rural infrastructures; loss of property.

Land degradation, lower yields/crop damage and failure; increased livestock deaths; increased risk of wildfire. More widespread water stress. Likely Increased risk of food and water shortage; increased risk of malnutrition; (66 to 90% of probability) increased risk of water- and food-borne diseases. Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies; reduced hydropower generation potentials; potential for population migration. Table 3: Projected effects of global warming during the 21st Century. Source: IPCC, 2007b. Area affected by drought increases.

Climate change will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where water plays a crucial role. More than 80% of agricultural land is rain-fed. Food production also depends on available water resources for irrigation. Limited water availability already poses a problem in many parts of Europe and the situation is likely to deteriorate further due to climate change, with Europe’s high water stress areas expected to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s. This could also increase migration pressures.

2 Zoonoses are diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans.

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Climate change will increasingly drive ecosystem including marine ecosystems and biodiversity loss, affecting individual species and significantly impacting ecosystems and their related services, on which society depends. Ecosystems play a direct role in climate regulation with peat lands, wetlands and the deep sea providing significant storage for carbon. In addition, salt marsh ecosystems and dunes provide protection against storms. Other ecosystem services will also be affected such as the provision of drinking water, food production and building materials and oceans can deteriorate through acidification. Some land use practices and planning decisions (e.g. construction on flood plains), as well as unsustainable use of the sea (e.g. overfishing) have rendered ecosystems and socioeconomic systems more vulnerable to climate change and thus less capable of adapting. In particular the Mediterranean basin, is strongly vulnerable: climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity. In addition, the risk of water flooding due to the increasing level of the sea is high in all the coastal areas including the Adriatic basin. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat- waves, and the frequency of wildfires (EEA, 2008; EC, 2009).

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PART 2. SETTING THE FRAMEWORK AT EUROPEAN AND MEMBER STATES LEVEL 2.1 EU policy framework The EU’s agreed climate change legislation puts in place the concrete measures to reach the EU's commitment to reduce emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and is capable of being amended to deliver a 30% reduction if agreed as part of an international agreement in which other developed countries agree to comparable reductions and appropriate contributions by economically more advanced developing countries based on their responsibilities and capabilities. However, even if the world succeeds in limiting and then reducing GHG emissions, our planet will take time to recover from the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Thus we will be faced with the impact of climate change for at least the next 50 years. Current climate change policies - under discussion within the EU aim at setting a “prudential” 2°C threshold to temperature increase above preindustrial level within the century. The aim is to limit the impacts of climate change and the likelihood of massive and irreversible disruptions of the global ecosystem. Thus, even assuming a successful accomplishment, the world will be anyway exposed to a certain degree of climate change and to its negative consequences for the century to come. Moreover, the stated target is considered particularly ambitious: it requires aggressive mitigation actions from developed regions, coupled with an extended international participation involving a still-to-reach explicit commitment to binding emission reduction from major polluters among developing countries. Accordingly, it is very likely that the world will face a higher temperature increase and more damaging consequences than those expected from a 2°C warming (EC, 2009). On 29 June 2007 the Commission adopted its Green Paper3 on Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action (EC, 2007). This Green Paper builds upon the work and findings of the European Climate Change Programme4 and represents the Commission's first comprehensive policy initiative on adaptation and can therefore be considered as a milestone. The paper argues that next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions, and sets out four lines of priority action at the Community level5: 1. First Pillar encourages early action in the EU: this involves integrating adaptation when implementing and modifying existing legislation. This can be done in a variety of policy areas such as agriculture, rural development, industry and services, energy, transport, health, water, fisheries and ecosystems. The EU is active in all of these areas and needs to consider adaptation when creating new legislation. In addition, adaptation should be integrated into Community funding programmes and the EU should develop new policy responses. 2. Second Pillar is about integrating adaptation into external EU actions. When dealing with external partners, the EU needs to promote adaptation and make it part of its relationship with all third countries. Furthermore, adaptation policies could be shared between partners, with trade agreements used to promote green technologies and investment. 3. Third Pillar aims to reduce uncertainty by expanding the knowledge base through integrated climate research. Research is key for effective adaptation as practical adaptation actions and measures must be based on sound, scientific, technical and socio-economic information. The increasing importance of research on adaptation to climate change has been recognised by the Commission in funding a number of projects related to this issue in previous Research Framework Programmes. In the Seventh Framework Programme, research on adaptation to climate change will play a bigger role and the EU will need to further promote research that can help develop a truly effective climate policy. 3 COM(2007) 354. 4 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm. 5 CEC, (2007b).

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4. Fourth Pillar is about involving European society, business and the public sector in the preparation of coordinated and comprehensive adaptation strategies. Adaptation could cause significant changes in many different sectors; as such dialogue is needed between affected parties, civil society and the EU, through which all parties could address their concerns and the most effective adaptation policy be created. In April 2009 the European Commission presented a policy paper known as a White Paper6 Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action (EC, 2009) which sets out a framework for adaptation measures and policies to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and to strengthen the EU’s resilience to cope with a changing climate. The White Paper builds on the wide-ranging consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper and further research efforts that identified action to be taken in the short-term. The framework is designed to evolve as further evidence becomes available. It will complement action by Member States and support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change, particularly in developing countries. The White Paper adopts a phased approach: phase 1 (2009-2012) will lay the ground work for preparing a comprehensive EU adaptation strategy to be implemented during phase 2, starting in 2013. Phase 1 focuses on four key pillars for action: 1. Building a solid knowledge base: while in recent decades the availability of observed and projected data and information on climate change impacts across Europe has improved, many weaknesses still exist. Information availability differs considerably across regions, European-wide monitoring programmes and spatially detailed information including climate change impact scenarios are lacking. 2. Integrating adaptation into EU key policy areas: there are a number of sectors with strong EU policy involvement where climate risk and adaptation measures will need to be considered. The mainstreaming of adaptation7 into sectoral policies at European level is important in order to reduce, in the long-term the vulnerability of sectors such as: agriculture, forests, bio-diversity, fisheries, energy, transport, water and health.. 3. Employing a combination of policy instruments (market-based instruments, guidelines, public-private partnerships) to ensure effective delivery of adaptation: Climate change is one of the priorities for the EU's current multi-annual financial framework (2007-2013) and it is important to ensure that the available funds are used to reflect this priority. In addition, optimising the use of insurance and other financial services products could also be explored. Consideration should also be given to the role of specialised Market Based Instruments. 4. Stepping up international cooperation on adaptation:. EU external cooperation should make a significant contribution to promoting adaptation in partner countries; particularly neighbouring countries. Bilateral and regional financial assistance programmes will aim to integrate adaptation considerations into all relevant sectors. To support cooperation on adaptation and with a view to taking this framework forward, the Commission intends to set up an Impact and Adaptation Steering Group (IASG) which will play a role in developing the four pillars identified above to help develop the EU strategy and prepare national adaptation strategies by the Member States. The EU encourages, in fact, the further development of National and Regional Adaptation Strategies with a view to considering mandatory adaptation strategies from 2012. Adaptation will be a long and continuous process. It will operate at all levels and require close coordination with stakeholders. The Commission will regularly review progress in implementing the first phase of the framework for action identified in this White paper with a view to developing a comprehensive adaptation strategy from 2013.

6 COM(2009) 147 final. 7 Mainstreaming adaptation means using or creating mechanisms that allow decision makers to integrate further climate risks into all relevant policy interventions.

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Putting into practice adaptation measures could save the EU and its Member States billions of euros. The sooner action is taken to adapt Europe to climate change, the better. Action needs to be taken at all levels with help from all sectors. At national level, disaster and crisis management needs to be improved. Rapid-response capabilities need to be boosted and disaster-prevention programmes need to be put into place. Adaptation strategies should be developed and shared to reduce costs across Member States. Particular attention needs to be given to the social elements of adaptation strategies as often the poorest parts of society are at the greatest risk. At regional level, minimum standards need to be set and enforced. As regional and local authorities are the most knowledgeable about the local natural and human conditions, these authorities have a large role to play in adaptation. As the EEA has recognized in its technical reports, in fact adaptation must occur mainly at sub-national and local levels, but involves all levels of decisionmaking from municipalities to international organizations. The peculiarity of adaptation is that it can be better understood and implemented by looking at a specific area, characterized by similar patterns (geographical, economic and social), where vulnerability would hence be similar. This area is often not coincident with the national territory.

2.2 National Adaptation Strategies and Plans in Europe Adaptation is a relatively new topic on the political agenda of the European Union, though since 2005 many countries have already launched initiatives with the main objective of promoting adaptation to climate change and drawing up policies, strategies and plans or sectoral programs, in order to ensure future sustainable development for their regions and avoid paying a very high price in terms of environmental damage, loss of human lives and economic costs. European countries are at different stages in preparing, developing and implementing National Adaptation Strategies (Table 4). The progress made thus far depends on a number of factors including the magnitude and nature of observed impacts, the assessment of current and future vulnerability, and the existing capacity to adapt. One of the first initiatives of that kind in Europe was undertaken by Finland, which adopted in 2005 a National Adaptation Strategy (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, 2005), with the objective of reinforcing and expanding the country’s capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change as well as taking advantage of the potential opportunities The sectors covered in the strategy are agriculture and food production, forestry, fisheries, reindeer and game husbandry, water resources, biodiversity, industry, energy, transport, land use and communities, building, health, tourism and recreation, and insurance. The responsibility for implementation of the national adaptation strategy lies with the respective sectoral ministries, some of which have started to prepare sectoral assessments and action plans to include adaptation into other policies In France a National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change was published in 2006 by the National Observatory dedicated to the effects of climate change (ONERC, 2007). The strategy represents an intermediate step between the scientific diagnosis and the implementation of an action plan containing precise measures to be enacted at different decision-making levels. The key priorities for adaptation in France are, in particular, public security and health; social aspects, including inequality of risks, costs and opportunities and preservation of natural heritage, included in 43 specific recommendations. The further step will be the translation of these recommendations into a binding national adaptation plan, which comprises substantive proposals for action, by 2010– 2011. Spain has had a national climate change strategy since 2005, established by a national decree. However, the main components of this strategy relate to mitigation options. In addition, the first national adaptation plan in Europe – Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PNACC) – was published in 2006 (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, 2006). The PNACC focuses on the following sectors: biodiversity, water resources, forest, agriculture, coastal zones, hunting and continental fishing, mountainous regions, soils, marine ecosystems and - 13 -


fisheries, transport, human health, industry and energy, tourism, construction and urbanisation, finance and insurance. In March 2008, Denmark also drew up its Strategi for tilpasning til klimaÌndringer i Danmark (Danish strategy for adaptation to a changing climate). This strategy stresses that it is important that, as far as possible, authorities, enterprises and individuals should react to the consequences of climate change in good time on their own initiative. To support this, the Danish strategy calls for the implementation of information initiatives, a research strategy and measures to facilitate the consideration of climate change issues in planning and development. In addition, the strategy outlines the challenges faced by vulnerable sectors in particular coastal management, construction, energy supply, water supply, agriculture and forestry, fisheries, nature and nature management, planning, human health, emergency and rescue services, and insurance related aspects (Danish Government, 2008). In the Netherlands, the government has formulated a formal Dutch National Adaptation Strategy in 2007 entitled Make Space for Climate! (VROM, 2007b). This strategy consists of a short political document endorsed by all relevant ministries and other governmental bodies, and a more detailed background document. The strategy documents are the starting points for formulating more substantive climate adaptation policy. However, it should be noted that this document relates primarily to spatial measures, although raising awareness and identifying gaps in knowledge are also part of the strategy. In addition, sectoral plans have been developed, including a national plan for heat waves, and a State Advisory Commission has presented recommendations in September 2008 (Swart R. et al., 2009) . The United Kingdom, where a legislative proposal, The Climate Change Bill, was presented to Parliament in November of 2007 and converted into law in November of 2008, can be considered one of the first countries in the world to possess a binding, long-term framework for addressing the topics of mitigation and adaptation. The United Kingdom, in fact, has been active in climate change science from an early stage and policy responses have been debated and developed from the late 1980s onwards. Adaptation has been approached through a number of programmes and initiatives, some general, some sectorspecific. In its UK Climate Change programme (established 2000, reviewed 2006) the government set out its intention to develop a comprehensive and robust approach to adaptation in the UK, alongside mitigation issues. In the summer of 2008 the Government launched Adapting to Climate Change in England: a Framework for Action (DEFRA, 2008a), the national adaptation strategy for England, the largest constituent country of the UK. A Climate Change Act has been adopted. This will place a statutory duty on the Government to carry out a detailed national risk assessment and develop a programme to implement adaptation (together with a series of other measures including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions). In December 2008 Germany adopted its German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, in order to create a framework for adapting to the impacts of climate change in Germany. The actual development process was launched in 2007, conducted by the Federal Environmental Ministry, informed by numerous stakeholder consultations and supported by KOMPASS, a special focal point of the Federal Environmental Agency commissioned to coordinate research and to enhance the science-policy-nexus. The strategy primarily describes the contribution of the Federation, thus acting as a guide for other actors. The strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term, step-by-step process undertaken in cooperation with the federal Länder and other civil groups and aimed at assessing the risks of climate change, identifying the possible need for action, defining appropriate goals and developing and implementing options for adaptation measures. First mid-term review is scheduled for April 2013 (The Federal Government, 2008). Finally, Hungary set up recently its national strategy entitled Hungarian National Climate Change Strategy.

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Adaptation funds Adaptation to climate change is a challenge for all countries. Some industrialized countries, such as the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Germany, Australia, and Canada, are ahead of the United States in planning for climate change impacts, and their experiences provide valuable lessons for policymakers. From a global perspective, the adaptation challenge is probably greatest for developing countries. They are generally more vulnerable to climate change by virtue of being at lower latitudes, where impacts such as increased disease and extreme heat and drought will be more pronounced, and because their economies are more dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and tourism. What’s more, with lower per capita incomes, weaker institutions, and limited access to technology, developing countries have less adaptive capacity. In the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States and other developed countries committed generally to help “particularly vulnerable” countries adapt to climate change. In coming decades, adaptation in developing countries is estimated to require tens of billions of dollars annually. To date, $279 million in multilateral support has been pledged. Additional funds are now being generated through a levy on emissions credits generated through the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Under the Bali Roadmap, which launched talks on a post2012 international climate agreement, stronger adaptation support is one of the core issues to be negotiated. Effective international support will likely require stronger efforts both within and outside the UN climate change regime. Within the regime, options include support for comprehensive national adaptation strategies and for implementation of high-priority projects. Other support can be provided through multilateral and bilateral assistance programs to better integrate climate adaptation into the development process. Source: Burton I. et al., 2006.

Several countries are expected to adopt national adaptation strategies in the next years and other countries are in the process of assessing their vulnerability to climate change. The recent and current rapid pace of developments in the context of National Adaptation Strategies across Europe implies that policies in this area are developing extremely rapidly. In particular, Austria has only recently begun to work on a National Adaptation Strategy. In 2007 the Austrian government decided informally to develop an adaptation strategy. However, to date there have been no official statements regarding the general aims, concepts and timescale of such a strategy. Meanwhile, Austria has evaluated the available knowledge base, concluding that Austria lacks sufficient and comprehensive understanding of the regional impacts of climate change and adaptation options. Nevertheless, for some sectors, specific impact and adaptation studies exist (e.g., on flood protection – although these are not been specifically linked to the issue of climate change). Latvia does not yet have a National Adaptation Strategy. Meanwhile, an informative report on adaptation was submitted to the government in 2008, and will serve as a basis for the further development of a national strategy. In Norway, a scoping study for a National Adaptation Strategy was published in 2004, outlining the key challenges a strategy would need to address and discussing possible approaches to structuring adaptation policy. Recently, the Norwegian Government published a draft consultation paper on three main objectives designed to tackle the issue of climate change adaptation: (a) map vulnerability to climate change in Norway; (b) enhance understanding about climate change and adaptation; and (c) stimulate the exchange of information and capacity building. Complementing this, the Ministry of Environment – based on input from 13 ministries – presented a cross-cutting report in early 2007 detailing Norway’s vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This report summarises challenges for key sectors, i.e. biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, infrastructure, spatial planning, energy, human health, insurance, foreign policy and the Arctic. In Portugal no dedicated National Adaptation Strategy exists yet, although there is a growing recognition of the need for adaptation strategies. The SIAM project (Santos F. D., Forbes K., Moita R., 2002) produced a comprehensive overview of scenarios, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation measures available. In the future, this reference document is to be translated into a concrete plan for adaptation, strongly based on active involvement and commitment by stakeholders from different sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, insurance companies, water companies, health sector etc. Meanwhile, several regional and sectoral actors and institutes have already started to take climate change into consideration in their sectoral plans; examples include the National Heat waves - 15 -


Contingency Plan, the Commission for Droughts, the Icarus alert system for the city of Lisbon, the Adaptation Measures in the National Forest Strategy and the related Plan against Forest Fires. Sweden has not yet developed a dedicated National Adaptation Strategy, and may opt to stay with an integrated and coordinated cooperation between vulnerable sectors. In 2007 the Klimat-och sürbarhetsutredningen (Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability) presented its final report, Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities. This 680 page report summarizes the challenges Sweden faces; it focuses on key sectors such as communications, technical support systems, development and buildings, rural businesses and tourism, the natural environment and environmental goals, human health, changes in the world around us and their impacts on Sweden. The report also looks at the information needed to help reduce vulnerability and offers a set of concrete proposals. It will be subject to a public review and will serve as one of the inputs into a forthcoming climate bill. This bill is expected to focus primarily on climate mitigation, however (Swart R. et al., 2009). European country in which a formal National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) has been adopted Finland France Spain Denmark Hungary Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Norway Sweden European countries in which governments are preparing a NAS or in which preparatory work has been under taken Estonia Ireland Latvia Austria Belgium Portugal

Year in which a NAS was adopted 2005 2006 2006 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 Year in which a NAS is expected 2009 2009 2009 2011 2012 SIAM Project

Table 4:National Adaptation Strategies under preparation or adopted in Europe. Source: EEA website.

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PART 3. FROM THEORY: REGIONAL AND LOCAL GUIDELINES FOR ADAPTATION 3.1 Key features of existing regional and local guidelines Adaptation to climate change is complex as the severity of the impacts will vary from region to region, depending on physical conditions, the degree of socio-economic development, natural and human adaptive capacity, health services, and response mechanisms. Some regions and cities have already produced Regional Adaptation Strategies; others are in the process of doing so. However it has been recognized that uncertainties on the scale, timing and consequences of climate change, as well as the lack of information, knowledge and expertise at local and regional level is, in part, hindering the development of regional climate adaptation strategies. As indicated in the recently published White Paper on Adaptation, the European Commission wishes to mobilize climate change adaptation responses and promote best practice amongst public authorities at local, regional and national level by providing technical guidance, case studies and examples of best practices. Guidance documents8 developed in and outside the EU have been reviewed in order to identify common key features for developing adaptation strategies. In Europe already some examples of guidelines at different governance levels were developed. The few guidance documents found at local level have been realized in the United Kingdom (Scotland and England). Other examples of guidance developed in the United Kingdom refer to the various levels of governance. Transboundary level of governance has also been considered in particular as regards water and coastal management. Finally, two examples of guidance at various levels developed outside Europe have been considered (Table 5). Guidance document

Country

Level of governance

EUROPE Scottish Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) Guidance9 The Nottingham Declaration Action Plan10 Design of guidelines for the elaboration of regional climate change adaptation strategies11 UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Identifying Adaptation Options12 UKCIP Adaptation Wizard13 European Spatial Planning: Adapting to Climate Events (ESPACE) programme Planning in a changing climate14 ESPACE A toolkit for delivering water management climate change adaptation through the planning system15 Towards Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Baltic Sea Region (ASTRA)16 NordRegio, Climate Change Emergenices and European Municipalities: Guidelines for

Scotland, United Kingdom

Local

England, United Kingdom Europe

Local Regional

United Kingdom

All levels

United Kingdom North West Europe – England, Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany North West Europe – England, Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany Baltic Sea Region

All levels All levels

Norway, Sweden, Finland

Transboundary

Transboundary

Transboundary

8 Guidance documents are intended as documents that present a methodology or approach for developing an adaptation strategy. 9 http://www.sccip.org.uk/Projects/Default.aspx?pid=17. 10 http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/nottingham/Nottingham-Declaration/Developing-an-Action-Plan. 11 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/adaptation/pdf/RAS%20Final%20Report.pdf. 12 http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?id=23&option=com_content&task=view. 13 http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?Itemid=273&id=147&option=com_content&task=view. 14 http://www.espace-project.org/part1/publications/ESPACE%20Stategy%20Final.pdf. 15 http://www.espace-project.org/publications/library/SEERA%20toolkit_appendix_7.pdf. 16 Hilpert, K., Mannke, F., Schmidt-Thomé, P., 2007. Towards Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Baltic Sea Region Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region, Espoo Available at: http://www.astraproject.org/.

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Adaptation and Response17 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe - wide Europe (UNECE) Draft Guidance on Water and Climate Adaptation18 OUTSIDE EUROPE International Council for Local Environmental International Initiatives (ICLEI) guidance Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments19 United Nations Development Programme International (UNDP) guidance on Formulating an Adaptation Strategy20 The USAID Guidance manual for development International planning: Adapting to Climate Variability and Change.21 Table 5: Adaptation guidelines reviewed in this study.

Transboundary

All levels

All levels

All levels

On the basis of the literature reviewed, and in particular in accordance to Ribeiro M. et al. (2009), the following specific key features were identified: 1. Gaining political backing and managerial commitment As a first step in developing an adaptation strategy, a preparedness group comprising a leader and core team should be established. To help gain backing, it is recommended to secure a meeting with corporate management and present a brief on why a climate change adaptation strategy is needed. If backing cannot be secured, involve staff across all departments within the local government as they may then influence their own managers. Making a statement about the motivation for considering climate change adaptation as well as the attitude towards climate risk can provide another substantial case upon which to seek managerial and political backing. Once established, the team’s role will be to conduct a climate resilience study, identify priority action areas, set goals, implement the plan and finally measure, monitor and review the plan. The success of an adaptation strategy is dependent on cumulative action across departments and by forming a group, actions can be monitored and coordinated at a more strategic level. 2. Embedding climate change adaptation within existing plans, policies and programmes The integration of adaptation actions into existing policy can be instigated through existing regulatory mechanisms such as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Regulations, enacted in Europe by the Directive 2001/42/EC. SEA is a tool for assessing the potential implications of plans and programmes on the environment and it aims to integrate environmental issues into the planning process at an early stage. 3. Developing an evidence base A robust adaptation strategy will be based on sound science and the best available technology. Examples of climate change scenarios: the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provides climate change projections in the UK and is widely used by regional and local authorities, as well as other practitioners, to develop adaptation strategies in the UK. At the EU level, PRUDENCE regional climate models are tools used in many of the RAS reviewed to illustrate projected changes in future climate. The IPCC climate change scenarios are used in many of the other EU Member States’ strategies. Other sources of scientific evidence include flood risk maps 17 Nordregio (2009) Climate Change Emergencies and European Municipalities. Guidelines for adaptation and response. Page 3. 18http://www.preventionweb.net/files/8986_GuidanceWaterClimateAdaptationfinaldraftamsterdam.pdf. 19 http://www.icleiusa.org/action-center/planning/guidebooks. 20 http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html. 21 USAID. Guidance manual for development planning: Adapting to Climate Variability and Change. Available at: http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/docs/reports/cc_vamanual.pdf.

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which indicate how a region is likely to be impacted under changing patterns of precipitation (UNECE, 2008). Meteorological offices, national datasets, government departments’ archives, journalistic sources and research institutes are other useful sources of scientific evidence for climate change. Once evidence has been gathered on the projected impacts of climate change, a risk assessment can be undertaken. Climate risk is the result of the interaction of physical hazards with the sensitivity or vulnerability of the exposed systems. There are different ways of conducting a risk assessment: in general, the process will involve evidence gathering, identification and analysis of risks, evaluation of risks using a ‘low, medium or high’ ranking system with justifications given to the ranking of each impact. Alternatively, rankings can be converted into number form to provide a quantitative assessment of risks. Flood risk assessments are prepared by or for developers and aim to assess the impact that developments may have on flood risk (ESPACE, 2007). 4. Identification of key vulnerabilities During a vulnerability analysis, climate and socioeconomic factors that may enhance vulnerability, including geography, demographics and economics, should be assessed in order to identify those sectors, regions or groups most vulnerable to climate change impacts. A sensitivity analysis can be carried out at a strategic level or for priority areas, for example, transport, health or tourism. This information is typically compiled in a vulnerability matrix. Key vulnerabilities can be identified through researching journalistic sources such as local and national newspaper media. (UKCIP, 2005; Nordregio, 2009). 5. Selection and assessment of adaptation options There are different ways to select adaptation options. Establishing a set of guiding principles can help to focus on the reasons for adapting in the first place: - increase public awareness of climate change and its impacts; - increase technical capacity for adapting to climate change; - mainstreaming information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks and impacts into planning, policy and investment; - increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural and human systems; - strengthen community partnerships to reduce vulnerability and risk to climate change (Snover A. K. et al., 2007). Once adaptation options have been identified they should be assessed in terms of cost benefit and relevance. Cost benefit analysis is often used to quantify the cost of adapting to climate change through an analysis of monetary cost versus social, environmental and economic benefits. Avoiding mal-adaptation is also important to avoid actions which limit or restrict future adaptations. One must consider the impact of adaptation options on mitigation options and vice-versa (Hilpert K. et al., 2007; ESPACE, 2007). 6. Stakeholder engagement and communication Once adaptation options have been selected, the adaptation strategy can be compiled. This stage should effectively engage stakeholders in order to maximise understanding and acceptance of the strategy. Different degrees of participation, from non-participation which involves a one-way exchange of information from policy makers to participants, to engagement where stakeholders are able to inform the decisions made, will be necessary at different times of the process and it is important that these are established early on in the process to provide maximum benefits. There is added value in stakeholder engagement. By having planners and developers work in collaboration, knowledge transfer will be made easier as bodies will be able to advise, support and implement the adaptation strategy. Stakeholders must be consulted at the appropriate stage in the design of the strategy. For instance, before developing the strategy, there should be consultation on the needs of the community (ESPACE, 2007; Nordregio, 2009).

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7. Monitoring, evaluation and review Strategies should be reviewed on an annual basis or more frequently to ensure the effectiveness of adaptation decisions and to keep it relevant (UKCIP, 2005). There are a range of methods for monitoring the progress of an adaptation strategy, including setting targets and indicators. Targets should be specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and timeframed (Snover A. K. et al., 2007; UNECE, 2008). Indicators can then be used to measure the success of the strategy. Other ways to measure progress include conducting public surveys, monitoring the number of visits to a climate change community website and monitoring the number of requests for climate change literature (Snover A. K. et al., 2007). Adaptation strategies will not be successful unless there is a willingness to adapt among those affected, as well as a degree of consensus regarding what types of actions are appropriate. 3.1.1 Gaining political backing and managerial commitment As a first step in developing an adaptation strategy, a preparedness group comprising a leader and core team should be established. To help gain backing, it is recommended to secure a meeting with corporate management and present a brief on why a climate change adaptation strategy is needed. If backing cannot be secured, involve staff across all departments within the local government as they may then influence their own managers. Making a statement about the motivation for considering climate change adaptation as well as the attitude towards climate risk can provide another substantial case upon which to seek managerial and political backing. Once established, the team’s role will be to conduct a climate resilience study, to establish the stakeholder process, to identify priority action areas, to set goals, the review the policy process, to implement the plan, to develop a communication plan and finally measure, monitor and review the plan (UNDP, 2004). The project team needs to identify ongoing and/or planned projects within the country that have relevance to the adaptation project. These projects may be complementary, and possibly synergistic The success of an adaptation strategy is dependent on cumulative action across departments and by forming a group, actions can be monitored and coordinated at a more strategic level (Table 6). What do I need to do before I start? - Engage your colleagues. Gather a small team of people around you who can work with you throughout the process. Getting the right people on board from the outset will lead to a better product. - Consider the decision-making culture of your organisation. The strategy that you develop by working through the strategy, or the decisions that you make, are likely to be implemented through your organisation’s existing procedures. Make sure you have a good understanding of these procedures at the outset, as this will help you to determine the most effective way of implementing your strategy/decision. - Familiarise yourself with the principles of good adaptation that will underpin the process of completing the Wizard and should inform your thinking. - Work in partnership Working in partnership is a core principle of effective adaptation. Identifying and engaging with the relevant community of interest is critical for success. Stakeholders bring knowledge and skills to the process. The more comprehensive that knowledge and skills base is, and the more informed they are about the adaptation process, the more likely adaptation is to succeed. Stakeholders can also help to identify potential conflicts or synergies between adaptation and other initiatives. Adaptation by one organisation, or system, should not make it more difficult for others to manage their climate risks or other development goals. So called maladaptations should be avoided. Similarly, synergies between adaptation measures and other planned initiatives should be exploited where possible. Engaging the appropriate stakeholder community can help identify potential maladaptations and synergies that may otherwise be missed. Source: UKCIP Adaptation Wizard (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/).

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Gaining political backing and managerial commitment Interdepartmental climate change preparedness team

Method

Source

Leader and a core team representing the disciplines and departments appropriate for the climate change impacts. Potential disciplines: agriculture, economic development, emergency management, fire, flood control, natural resources, parks and recreation, forestry, planning and zoning, public health, stormwater management, transportation, wastewater treatment, water supply, coastal zone management.

ICLEI

Climate preparedness champion

Leader who is already committed to other environmental issues, former elected officials or departments heads, key business leaders, long-range planners, and/or other respected members of the community at large, economic champion.

ICLEI

Message on the importance of and need for climate change preparedness

Description of changes that have already been observed or changes that are expected, how climate change may impact the community; need for action but balance the challenges with optimism; to identify other similar communities that are planning for climate change; to develop a course for action.

ICLEI

Spreading the message

Brown-bag seminars; department meetings; scientific briefings to councils and executive staff (for internal audiences); newsletters, fact sheets, utility inserts and brochures, website (for both internal and external audiences); public meetings, press release/public statements, media training events, events aimed at businesses and nongovernmental organizations (for external audiences).

ICLEI

Team leader

Centrally locate, have a good grasp of the organization’s overall responsibilities and objectives and be able to communicate well with colleagues from other departments or divisions.

ICLEI

Objectives of the team

Climate resiliency study; identify priority planning areas for action; goals and develop the plan; measure your progress and update your plan.

ICLEI

Climate change point person

Coordination preparedness efforts and seeking outside help.

ICLEI

Guiding questions

1. What is the development objective or outcome sought? What is the scope for the policy, plan or project and what are the priority systems? 2. What key policy processes are related to this objective? 3. What groups are particularly at risk to climate change and how can they engage in the policy, plan or project design process as stakeholders? 4. What information is available related to current and future climate change vulnerability and hazards, and what does this information suggest about policy, plan or project risks and responses (a preliminary overview)? 5. What is the proposed approach and method for the policy, plan or project formulation (hazards-based, vulnerability-based, adaptive capacity, or policy-based)? 6. What is the policy, plan or project outline and plan? 1. Who is affected by climate change, including variability, in the priority system? 2. Who in the priority system are the potential leaders in the government, research communities, and civil society

UNDP

Questions to aid description of stakeholders

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UNDP


3. 4.

5.

6.

7.

(e.g., non-governmental organisations, associations, local communities)?Who is responsible for facilitating and implementing policies and measures for adaptation? Who controls the largest financial contributions for sectoral lending, or direct foreign investment? Who is actively working in the priority system on relevant issues (e.g., disaster management, poverty alleviation, forest management or community development)? Who is concerned with the priority system and the project result? Possibilities include national or local government, scientists, technology suppliers, economists, universities, private companies, NGOs,co-operatives, trade unions, communities and women and youth movements. Which stakeholders are responsible for formal and informal dissemination of knowledge? Is there a media presence? Which stakeholders are likely to be affected by the implementation of adaptation policies and measures in the priority system?

Table 6: Steps and methods suggested for gaining political backing and managerial commitment.

GUIDING QUESTIONS 1. What is the development objective or outcome sought? What is the scope for the policy, plan or project and what are the priority systems? 2. What key policy processes are related to this objective? 3. What groups are particularly at risk to climate change and how can they engage in the policy, plan or project design process as stakeholders? 4. What information is available related to current and future climate change vulnerability and hazards, and what does this information suggest about policy, plan or project risks and responses (a preliminary overview)? 5. What is the proposed approach and method for the policy, plan or project formulation (hazards-based, vulnerability-based, adaptive capacity, or policy-based)? 6. What is the policy, plan or project outline and plan? Source: (UNDP, 2004). 3.1.2 Embedding climate change adaptation within existing plans, policies and programmes The integration of adaptation actions into existing policy can be instigated through existing regulatory mechanisms such as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Regulations, enacted in Europe by the Directive 2001/42/EC. SEA is a tool for assessing the potential implications of plans and programmes on the environment and it aims to integrate environmental issues into the planning process at an early stage. 3.1.3 Developing an evidence base The first step is collecting and reviewing important climate information. Answering the question How could climate change affect my region, and do these impacts pose a risk for my community? requires collecting and evaluating basic information from published research on how climate is expected to change in the region – a fundamental and ongoing part of preparing for climate change impacts. The activities will be therefore addressed to collect the information on a few key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation; how climate changes will vary with season; the range of climate change that the community could experience. Furthermore, it will be required to understand the certainty of the information and why projections of a change may vary from one study to another; the tracking other critical information about the studies and reports collected. Example of - 22 -


source of information are peer-reviewed assessment reports; peer-reviewed journal articles and books; the gray literature (papers and reports from research groups and governmental agencies; conference proceedings); fact sheets and brochures; media stories. It is often useful to group the information on the impacts of climate change in relation to sectors, a general grouping used to describe any resource, ecological system, species, management area, activity or other area of interest that may be affected by climate change. The information sources previously identified are also good starting points for learning more about projected climate change impacts in the region. Additionally, sector-specific climate change reports (special reports on water resources, forest resources, etc.) may include information relevant to the region. Potential sectors of impacts of climate change could include: hydrology and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, forests, tourism, energy, transportation, infrastructure, coastal resources and ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, business, health, emergency response. Planning for climate change requires identifying which sectors of a community are likely to be affected by a changing climate. Most communities will be sensitive to climate change in one or more of the sectors. The likelihood of any one impact occurring will vary by community. Climate change impacts are estimated based on specific climate change scenarios; a range of impact scenarios will be found when there are a variety of climate change projections. In order to compare and assess the study results for each source the following information must be examined: the sectors and/or types of species covered by the study; the changes (impacts) projected by the study; the time period in which those changes are expected (2020, 2040, 2100) and the reference period for comparison (1950-2000 average conditions); how the size of the projected changes compare to recent conditions; the models and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used; the amount of confidence in the projections (to the extent that this can be assessed); the geographic area covered by the study; the departments and/or programs within the community government that will be affected by the projected impacts. Some troubles could occur in finding impacts information that seems sufficiently detailed for planning, or in finding impacts information at all. One option for dealing with little information about projected climate change impacts is to look at how sensitive the community is to past and present-day climate (e.g. drought) and weather events (e.g. floods). A good place to begin is with the various department heads and staff in the community government. What does their experience tell them about sensitivity to 20th century climate and weather events? What analyses have been done within their respective departments on climate and weather impacts? Consider developing and distributing a questionnaire to gather relevant information. Other options include collecting information through staff meetings, special workshops, or lunch-time brown bag discussions. Interviews with long-time residents, examining government records, and reviewing media archives are also effective ways of gathering more information on the impacts of notable past climate and weather events. In addition information about local impacts from broader-scale studies or studies from other regions to develop a picture of how climate change might affect the region or specific sectors within your region (e.g. forests or water supply) can be extrapolated. This exercise can provide valuable qualitative information, but it is important to note that local impacts may vary from study results given the specific characteristics of the local system. If possible, consult with an expert familiar with the underlying causes of climate sensitivity. Once collected and reviewed a body of basic information about climate change impacts to the region, it is time to decide whether the information warrants moving forward with preparedness planning. Will climate change have an impact on the community and the government’s responsibilities? Do these impacts appear significant enough to begin preparing for climate change? If the answer to these questions is yes it is time to begin preparing for climate change. The identification of the planning areas relevant to climate change represent the successive step. Planning areas are the areas in which a government or community manages, plans or makes policy affecting the services and activities associated with built, natural and human systems. Systems refer - 23 -


to the built, natural and human networks that provide important services or activities within a community or region. The suggestion is to group these planning areas by sector. After listing the planning areas, the identification of the current and expected stresses to systems in these planning areas is required. In articulating the stresses to the built, natural or human systems, the effects of both known climate conditions and non-climate stresses such as population growth, economic development and other major trends, should be considered. The results will be organized in the following form: sectors, planning areas and current and expected stresses to systems in this planning area. It is particularly important to review non-climate related stresses to your planning areas at this stage in the process (Table 7) (UNDP, 2004; Snover A. K. et al., 2007). Developing an evidence base

Method

Source

Collecting and reviewing important climate information

- Collection of the information on a few key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation; - Collection of the information about how climate changes will vary with season; - Collection of the information about the range of climate change that the community could experience; - Sector-specific climate change reports (special reports on water resources, forest resources, etc.) may include information relevant to the region - Understand and log the certainty of the information; - Understand and track why projections of a change may vary from one study to another; - Track other critical information about the studies and reports collected. - Information about local impacts from broader-scale studies or studies from other regions to develop a picture of how climate change might affect the region or specific sectors within your region (e.g. forests or water supply) can be extrapolated. - Peer-reviewed assessment reports; - Peer-reviewed journal articles and books; - The gray literature (papers and reports from research groups and governmental agencies; conference proceedings); - Fact sheets and brochures; - Media stories.

ICLEI

Grouping the information in sectors

Potential sectors of impacts: hydrology and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, forests, tourism, energy, transportation, infrastructure, coastal resources and ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, business, health, emergency response.

ICLEI

Comparing and assessing the study results

Key elements: - Sectors and/or types of species covered by the study; - The impacts projected by the study; - The time period in which those changes are expected (2020, 2040, 2100); - The reference period for comparison (1950-2000 average conditions); - How the size of the projected changes compare to recent conditions; - The models and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used; - The amount of confidence in the projections (to the extent that this can be assessed); - The geographic area covered by the study; - The departments and/or programs within the community government that will be affected by the

ICLEI

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projected impacts. Dealing with little information

Options: - Questionnaire in order to investigate at how sensitive the community is to past and present-day climate (e.g. drought) and weather events (e.g. floods); - Staff meetings, special workshops, or lunch-time brown bag discussions. Interviews with long-time residents, examining government records, and reviewing media archives are also effective ways of gathering more information on the impacts of notable past climate and weather events.

ICLEI

Identification of the planning areas relevant to climate change

Suggestions: - Grouping the planning areas by sector; - Identification of the current and expected stresses (climate and non-climate) to systems in these planning areas; - Organize the results in a table with Sectors, Planning areas, Current and expected stresses to systems.

ICLEI

Table 7: Steps and methods suggested for developing an evidence base.

3.1.4 Identification of key vulnerabilities Vulnerability is considered the susceptibility of a system to harm from climate change. Vulnerability assessment can be conducted in-house, trough the climate change preparedness team, on with assistance of consulting agencies or universities based researchers. Before beginning assessment project team can explore a range of vulnerabilities: Human vulnerability (sample system – smallholders): - are there vulnerable groups within the system? Which groups? - what is their key vulnerability (e.g., crop failure due to drought)? - historically, what is the typical impact on these groups (e.g., food shortage and malnutrition)? - historically, what is the magnitude of the impact (e.g.,250,000 people affected over two years)? - historically, have lives been lost because of this impact? How many? - what has been done to mitigate this impact? How effective were these measures? - what is the current level of risk? Economic vulnerability (sample system – water resources): - is the system closely linked to the economy? - what are the key links (e.g., crop irrigation, agricultural livelihoods, industrial processes)? - what is the vulnerability associated with these links (e.g., reduced productivity or lost crops through drought)? - historically, what is the typical impact (e.g., drop in sorghum production, reduction of the workforce)? - historically, what is the magnitude of the impact (e.g., over five-year period, two of five regions were affected, a 10% drop in sorghum export, a 5% increase in unemployment)? - what has been done to mitigate this impact? How effective were these measures? - what is the current level of risk? Physical vulnerability (sample system – coastal region): - is the system physically vulnerable (e.g., to coastal land loss or infrastructure damage)? - what is the specific vulnerability (e.g., infrastructure damage through coastal inundation)?

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- historically, what is the magnitude of the impact (e.g., in a 1997 event, 20% of coastal structures in District X were damaged)? In order to complete a vulnerability assessment for the planning areas, a three-step process can be considered: 1. a sensitivity analysis for the systems associated with the planning areas identified; 2. an evaluation of the adaptive capacity of the systems associated with each of these planning areas; 3. an assessment of how vulnerable the systems in your planning areas are to the effects of climate change. Adaptive capacity is generally high in Europe for human systems; however it will vary for different hazards, meaning that some groups or systems will be more vulnerable to some hazards than others. For example Southern Europe and the European Arctic are more vulnerable than other parts of Europe8. Knowing the adaptive capacity of key systems in the region will also help to devise adaptation measures; if low income groups are less likely to respond to market incentives to adapt their homes, for example, a narrower range of adaptation options can be considered to improve resilience among these communities. In order to determine whether a system in a given planning area is sensitive to climate change, some questions are of great concern. If the system is likely to be affected as a result of projected climate change, it should be considered sensitive to climate change. Questions aiming at the identification of which climate conditions affect the stresses on the systems, how do they affect the systems, which are the projected climate change impacts and what degree of sensitivity to changes in climate will allow to perform the sensitivity analysis. Anywhere you have identified a system stress that will be significantly affected by a projected change in climate, you have identified a planning area that is sensitive to climate change. Other questions could be relevant in order to analyse the degree of sensitivity, concerning in particular the exposure, or the extent to which a system comes into contact with climate conditions or specific climate impacts – as a general rule, the greater the exposure, the higher the sensitivity to climate change, the existing stresses – as a general rule, stressed systems are more likely to be sensitive to impacts of climate change, the limiting factors, the impact threshold associated with the system (Table 8) (Snover A. K. et al., 2007). 1. Sector

2. Planning area

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 3. Current and expected stresses to systems in the planning area 4. Known climate conditions relevant to systems in the planning area 5. How known climate conditions currently affect systems in the planning area 6. How known climate conditions are projected to change 7. Projected impact of changes to systems in the planning area (without preparedness action) 8. Projected change in stresses to systems 9. Degree of system sensitivity to climate change

Table 8: Climate change sensitivity analysis. Source: Snover A. K. et al., 2007.

Climate outcomes are typically described through hydrological and meteorological variables. Depending on the nature of the consequences and the nature of the impacts processes, these variables may be used directly, or secondary variables may be computed. In many sectors and regions, there are already well-developed models and frameworks that describe system sensitivity. In many instances, detailed process models may be either unavailable, or too - 26 -


complex for inclusion in the assessment. In such cases, a variety of simpler techniques may be adopted, including empirical models based on analysis of historical data and events or models that look at simple climatic thresholds (e.g., the probability of drought). If it is difficult to implement even simple empirical approaches, an alternative might be to use expert opinion or examples form. Adaptive capacity describes the ability of built, natural and human systems associated with a given planning area to accommodate changes in climate with minimum disruption or minimum additional cost. Evaluating adaptive capacity is the second step in the vulnerability assessment of a planning area. As a general rule, systems that have high adaptive capacity are better able to deal with climate change impacts. To develop the adaptive capacity table the guiding question should be: to what extent are the systems associated with this planning area able to accommodate changes in climate at minimum disruption or cost? Many considerations have to be kept in mind in conducting the adaptive capacity analysis, about the current ability of the systems to accommodate change in climate, the barriers which could occur, the stresses that will limit the ability to accommodate changes in climate, the rate of projected changes, the efforts underway (Table 9). Sectoral experts on the climate change preparedness team will be valuable sources for the information needed on existing policies, practices, infrastructure and authorities in this stage of the assessment. It might also be considered to ask stakeholders and other colleagues how existing policies, practices, infrastructure and authorities might provide both opportunities and barriers to preparing for climate change. This can be done in a qualitative way face-to-face at public meetings, staff meetings, special workshops, lunch-time brown bag discussions, or via a questionnaire. However, the understanding of the additional relative cost to a given system of accommodating projected climate change impacts will eventually help to make prioritization decisions (Snover A. K. et al., 2007). 1. Sector

2. Planning area

3. Current and expected stresses to systems in the planning area

7. Projected impact of changes to systems in the planning area (without preparedness action)

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS 10. Ability of the 11. Adaptive systems in this capacity of this planning area to planning area accommodate projected impacts with minimum disruption or costs

Table 9: Climate change adaptive capacity analysis. Source: Snover A. K. et al., 2007.

Vulnerability is a measure of potential future harm. It is important to consider that we are interested in the vulnerability of something to something, namely a potential climatic event or related harm (e.g. flood damage or drought). Assessments of vulnerability should capture current vulnerability as well as vulnerability to potential future harm. In this way vulnerability assessment shares many similarities with traditional risk assessment; It is important to understand the process by which risks are created. The EC is currently investigating the feasibility of developing Vulnerability Indicators, which in future may be used to map vulnerability to climate hazards. Vulnerability indicators can be used to monitor, communicate and compare vulnerabilities of areas and sectors expected to be hit the hardest by climate change and have limited ability to respond. Vulnerabilities indicators are thus useful tools that may help understand where planned adaptation policy might be needed. different, but related settings (e.g., similar countries) to develop understanding of the relationship between hazards, exposure and outcomes (UNDP, 2004). The final step in the vulnerability assessment process is to combine the findings about sensitivity and adaptability to determine how and where your community is vulnerable to climate change. - 27 -


Planning areas with systems that are sensitive to climate and less able to adapt to changes are generally considered to be vulnerable to climate change impacts. The vulnerability assessment can be qualitative (high, medium, low) and/or quantitative exercise depending on the type of information available and the amount of resources available for a more quantitative investigation (Table 10). Vulnerability assessment is not static: existing vulnerabilities that you identify in this assessment will change, and new vulnerabilities will emerge as a result of climate change impacts on the frequency, intensity, duration and/or extent of specific climate events; the emergence of new threats such as the introduction of a new invasive species or disease into the community; new information on how climate change may affect specific systems in planning areas within your community; implementation of preparedness actions; changes in the community’s size, economy, preferences or other factors that can influence a community’s vulnerability to climate change. 1. Sector

2. Planning area

3. Current and expected stresses to systems in the planning area

7. Projected climate change impacts to systems in the planning area

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 8. Degree 10&11. 12. of Adaptive Vulnerability sensitivity capacity of of systems in of systems systems in this this planning in this planning area area planning area

Table 10: Climate change vulnerability assessment. Source: Snover A. K. et al., 2007.

Vulnerability is above all a local concept. It is important to collect regional information, but local knowledge held by local stakeholders should form the foundations for vulnerability assessment, using the information to indicate how conditions will change in future. These key stakeholders will learn from the process of assessing vulnerability to climate change, which can be as important as gathering the available data in one place to assist decision-making. It may be helpful to categorise the results of the vulnerability assessment according to themes. The appropriate categorisation will depend on the regional context. For example: • Water Safety and Supply (including flooding, drainage and sewerage, sea level rise, drought, water quality impacts); • Health (including heat stress, disease migration, cross-sectoral and secondary impacts on health); • Landscape Management (spatial planning, building design, biodiversity). Assessing future vulnerability. The next activity in a vulnerability assessment is to develop a more qualitative understanding of the drivers of vulnerability, in order to better understand possible future vulnerability: what shapes future exposure to climatic risks?; at what scales?. This analysis links the present with pathways of the future, pathways that may lead to sustainable development or increased vulnerability through maladaptation. Based on knowledge about vulnerabilities of systems in planning areas, other step is conduct climate change risk assessment for those systems. As in other fields that require risk management, the process of priority setting for the climate change preparedness efforts will be based on the estimation of climate risk to systems in the planning areas: Risk = consequence X probability where the consequences are the known or estimated consequences of a particular climate change impact and the probability indicates how likely is it that a projected impact will occur. Probability can be assessed qualitatively (high, medium, low) particularly in cases where resources are limited, information is limited, or the consequences of the impacts are small. In cases where a quantitative estimate of probability is warranted, more technical analytical techniques can be used. Use the - 28 -


information collected for the vulnerability assessment to estimate the consequence, probability, and resulting risk of specific climate change impacts to systems in the planning areas. It is good practice to describe why a high, medium or low rating was assigned to a given system. Each qualitative statement can be also converted into a numeric score (high=5, medium-high=4, medium=3, medium-low=2, low=1) to develop risk scores for each impact. For cases where the consequence or probability of an impact is unknown, other factors could help to determine the appropriate level of risk such as how important is the potential impact in context of other issues the government is currently managing, how problematic would the impact increase be for systems in the planning areas, how effectively the government currently handles the stresses, what is the adaptive capacity associated with systems in that planning area (Table 11) (Snover A. K., 2007). 1. Sector

2. Planning area

3. Current and expected stresses to systems in the planning area

7. Projected RISK ANALYSIS climate 13. 14. Probability change Consequence of impact (high, impacts to of impact medium, low, systems in (high, medium, unknown) the planning low) area Table 11: Climate change risk analysis. Source: Snover A. K. et al., 2007.

15. Estimated risk to systems in the planning area (high, medium, low)

Understanding current climate risks is a more appropriate basis for developing adaptation strategies to manage future climate risks than simply collecting baseline climate data and perturbing that data using scenarios of climate change. The relationships between current climate risks, vulnerability to those risks and the adaptations developed to manage those risks are often neglected in assessment methodologies – but not always in assessments themselves. Adaptation will be more successful if it accounts for both current and future climate risks. Within the broad framework of assessing risk, it is possible to conduct assessments that range from being qualitative to those that apply numerical techniques. As uncertainty decreases, the use of analytic and numerical methods increase, and the capacity to understand the system over changing circumstances increases. Extending the drivers of present socio-economic vulnerability to the future is typically based on a range of socio-economic scenarios. Existing development scenarios are the best place to start. Two technical issues need to be clarified in the vulnerability assessment at this stage: - most indicators are snapshots of present status (e.g., GDP per capita). However, vulnerability is dynamic and indicators that foreshadow future vulnerability may be useful. - the common drivers of development need to be related to the target vulnerable groups. While we suggest that scenarios of future vulnerability are best developed at the local to national level, there are cogent reasons to place future socio-economic conditions of vulnerability in a regional to global context. The climate change policy community has its own points of reference. The vulnerability assessment may benefit from coherence with such international scenarios, although it is methodologically incorrect to suggest that global socio-economic scenarios can be downscaled to local vulnerability – on theoretical, practical and empirical grounds. Outputs of this activity are qualitative descriptions of the present structure of socio-economic vulnerability, future vulnerabilities and revised set of vulnerability indicators that include future scenarios. The final activity brings together the indicators into a meaningful vulnerability assessment. Linking vulnerability assessment outputs with adaptation policy. The output of a vulnerability assessment include: - a description and analysis of present vulnerability, including representative vulnerable groups; - descriptions of potential vulnerabilities in the future, including an analysis of pathways that relate the present to the future; - 29 -


-

comparison of vulnerability under different socio-economic conditions, climatic changes and adaptive responses; - identification of points and options for intervention, which can lead to formulation of adaptation responses. The final activity is to relate the range of outputs to stakeholders decision-making, public awareness and further assessments. Historically, a common approach has been to aggregate the individual indicators into an overall score, referred to as an index. For example, the Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite of five indicators, transformed into standard scores and differentially weighted. A preferable device for communicating the vulnerability assessment is to use multi-attribute profiles. Another aggregation technique is to cluster vulnerable groups (or regions) according to key indicators. For example, climatic risks might be related to different classes of vulnerability. More formal methods for clustering, such as principal components analysis, are becoming more common as well. Ultimately, the qualitative understanding of vulnerability can be developed as storylines that can be used in scenarios that describe future representative conditions. These may be effective ways of communicating potential futures of concern. Communication methods are diverse; articles from future newspapers, radio documentaries and interviews can all be effective. A final output might be to revisit the conceptual model: Are there new insights that need to be included? Does the monitoring plan capture the range of vulnerabilities and their drivers? Would the framework need to be altered to apply to different regions or vulnerable groups? Have the priorities for vulnerability assessment changed? Adaptive capacity Impacts

Low

High

High

Vulnerable Communities

Low

Residual Risks

Development Opportunities Sustainability

Table 12: Clustering climatic risks and present development. The high-risk cluster is labelled vulnerable communities. If impacts are high but so is adaptive capacity, there should be development opportunities to reduce the climate change burden. However, if impacts are low but uncertain, there may well be residual risks if adaptive capacity is also low.

Can we predict future vulnerability? Future vulnerability is determined by the co-evolution of a number of coupled processes – the underlying climate hazards, the exposure of target groups, sectors and societies to the hazard, and planned and autonomous adaptation. In many situations, prediction of this co-evolution may be difficult, if not impossible to do. The key analytical tools to assess vulnerability are vulnerability mapping and dynamic simulation of sustainable livelihoods. However, the broader techniques of stakeholder participation and risk assessment are essential. A toolkit appropriate for vulnerability/adaptation assessment is proposed (UNDP, 2004). Identification of key vulnerabilities

Method

Source

Climate sensitivity analysis

Qualitative questionnaire.

ICLEI

Adaptive capacity analysis

Qualitative analysis face-to-face with sectoral experts on existing policies, practices, infrastructure, authorities, stakeholders at public meetings, staff meetings, special workshops, lunch time brown bag discussions, questionnaire.

ICLEI

Vulnerability assessment

A three steps process in which Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity analysis results are combined

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to determine how and where the community is vulnerable. Climate change risk analysis

Qualitative/quantitative assessment.

ICLEI

-

UNDP

Brainstorming Checklist/multiple attributes Delphi technique Expert judgment Focus groups Indicators/mapping Influence diagrams/mapping tools Ranking/dominance analysis/pairwise comparisons - Stakeholder consultation - Stakeholder Thematic Networks - Vulnerability profiles - Understanding the relationship contributing to Climate risk assessment risk - Relating given state with a level of harm - Using statistical analysis, regression relationships - Using dynamic simulation - Using integrated assessment (multiple models or methods) Table 13: Steps and methods suggested for the identification of key vulnerabilities. Toolkit for vulnerability assessment

UNDP

GUIDING QUESTIONS 1. What are the current major climate-related hazards? 2. What are the current major impacts/outcomes of these climate-related hazards? 3. What currently determines the type and severity of the impacts/outcomes (vulnerability)? 4. What measures and policies currently relate to relevant climate risks, impacts and selected development outcomes? How effective are they? Do development policies increase these risks? 5. How is the priority system sensitive to climate change? 6. What is the relevant planning horizon? (10,20, 50 years?) 7. What are the trends (observed) and projected (future) major climate-related hazards? Over what time scale? What is the range of severity of these hazards (accounting for uncertainty)? 8. What future socio-economic or other factors will determine the type and severity of the impacts/outcomes? (future vulnerability based on socio-economic scenarios) 9. What are the projected impacts(outcomes of these hazards (based on selected scenarios and impact models)? 10. What are the barriers and opportunities for adaptation? What aspects of national decisionmaking processes pose barriers or present opportunities for integrating climate change risks (e.g., institutional arrangements and authority, participation, and decision-making pathways)? Source: UNDP, 2004. 3.1.5 Selection and assessment of adaptation options There are different ways to select adaptation options. To identify the priority planning areas – areas of particular importance to the community or government which are vulnerable to climate change impacts and the associated risks - the results of the vulnerability assessment and the risk assessment could be grouped into on of the following general categories of systems: - high risk/high vulnerability; - high risk/low vulnerability; - 31 -


- low risk/high vulnerability; - low risk/low vulnerability. Planning areas that have high-risk and high-vulnerability systems can be put on a top priority position (Table 14). How to prioritize planning areas that are not high-risk and high-vulnerability is up to the team of experts. This decision will likely depend on a mix of criteria not explicitly captured in the vulnerability and risk assessment process, including considerations such as values, economic drivers and other factors unique to a given community (existing community government priorities, unique planning or funding opportunities). Low vulnerability

High risk

MAY be planning areas

priority

Low risk

Are UNLIKELY to be priority planning areas

High vulnerability

SHOULD be planning areas

priority

MAY be priority planning areas

Table 14: Vulnerability-risk matrix for identifying priority planning areas. Source: Snover A. K. et al., 2007.

Risk will change over time. New information on climate change and climate impacts will become available, allowing for better quantification of risks. For many reasons, periodically re-evaluate the risk assessment and selection of priority planning areas to make sure the priorities still reflect the community’s needs. These priority planning areas will be the focus for the preparedness actions and long-term preparedness plan. Once identified the priority planning areas, the next step could be the setting of the preparedness goals and the development of the preparedness actions to address the system stresses that climate change will impose in these areas: - establish a vision for a climate resilient community, as well as related guiding principles for resilience, which will be used to inform the process of setting preparedness goals in the priority planning areas; - develop, select and prioritize preparedness actions and write a preparedness plan to meet the goals you have set. Preparing for climate change is not about making the community climate proof, but rather making it climate resilient. In this sense, five guiding principles for resilience could be kept into consideration: 1. increase public awareness of climate change and its projected impacts on the community; 2. increase the technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts; 3. mainstream information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks and preparedness into planning, policy, and investment decisions; 4. increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural, and human systems in your community; 5. strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risks to climate change impacts. The process of setting preparedness goals will provide essential structure to the next stages of the work. In order to guide the development of the specific preparedness goals, the guiding principles outlined before as well as the following considerations, could be of help: - to address all of the guiding principles (as relevant) in each of the priority planning areas; - to engage others outside of the team; - to be clear about the timeframe; - to remember and remind the audience that preparing for climate change is an ongoing process. Preparedness actions are the activities that the government will undertake to achieve its preparedness goals. The evaluation of the appropriateness of different actions for the community - 32 -


will be based on a number of factors, including the priority planning area vulnerabilities and the types of resources available to the community. At a general level, the actions will involve any combination of the following: - modifying policies, practices, and procedures; - diversifying options; - building new or upgrading existing infrastructure; - improving community awareness and preparedness; - partnership building with other communities and agencies. Some key criteria/questions could help guide the selection and prioritization of the specific preparedness actions. Actions should meet the preparedness goals, benefits should exceed the costs, the action should be robust under a range of climate change scenarios, flexible and implemented in a specific time frame. Additional factors concerning, for example, the equitability of the action or the possibility to decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or cultural resources. The main aim of any adaptation measures will be to maintain, and ideally enhance, the capacity to deliver your corporate objectives under changing climate conditions. Although in some cases there may appear to be obvious adaptation responses, sometimes the most obvious response may not be the most practical, or cost-effective. In particular it is worth considering whether there are any simple changes to processes, or behaviour, that may offer a more cost-effective response than making physical changes. It is, therefore, worth considering possible alternative options for each risk and then assessing them according to a range of criteria in order to identify the most effective and practical responses. Three recommended steps: - identify options; - assess options; - identify preferred options. In order to identify potential responses to the priority risks identified, we recommend that you involve representatives all relevant staff in the process. Probably the best approach is to set up a series of brainstorming workshops each involving key staff considering possible responses to risks in their areas of operation and expertise. At these workshops it is a good idea to start by encouraging the participants to “think outside of the box� in order to generate as wide a range of possible responses as possible. Then to discuss the pros and cons of the suggestions in order to identify a range of potential responses that are worth considering in more detail. The results of the workshops should be written up and circulated for comments. Although workshops can be difficult to organise and are resource consuming, they are likely to repay the effort in terms not only of identifying possible adaptation responses, but in raising awareness and engaging staff in the process. Assess option focuses on assessing the long list of options identified in the previous step to begin to identify possible options for inclusion in an action plan. This is a very important stage in developing a robust plan. The process of assessing of options can be treated fairly informally. It is unlikely to be necessary, or practical, to undertake a full cost-benefit analysis of the various options. Once the broad objectives of the adaptation strategy have been determined, it is possible to formulate policies and measures to achieve these objectives. If included at this stage of the process, several factors will facilitate integration of adaptation policies and measures later on. An important step in the process of formulating options is the integration of adaptation policies and measures between different sectors – and with existing policies and measures. With integration, potential conflicts between adaptations in different sectors, and between proposed adaptations and existing policies and measures, can be avoided or limited. To ensure that the adaptations identified are suitable to the challenge, it is important to engage stakeholders that can provide perspective on the feasibility of proposed options. The generic process involved in identifying and assessing adaptations involves at first the identification of existing and potential adaptations. The second step reviews these options in light of - 33 -


their actual or potential effectiveness in addressing current climate vulnerability and risk. The next step involves an assessment of the effectiveness of these options in light of potential climate futures. The fourth and final step involves prioritising certain adaptations over others, based on agreed criteria. Once identified, adaptations have to be formulated in such a manner that their selection and prioritisation is possible using various methods. Since options will vary widely, it is only possible to outline typical information requirements, rather than give a prescribed format. Typical requirements are: - description of the measure, indicating objectives, location, timing and responsibilities for implementation, and financing. This description would address the technical feasibility of measures, barriers to their implementation (e.g., cultural, social), the capacity to implement and sustain the measure, the cultural acceptability of the technology involved, etc. - estimated costs of the measure, the cost is a prerequisite for ranking a measure and including it in the budget, or in a wider adaptation programme. Apart from direct costs, there are often indirect costs and external costs. Costs should be expressed in monetary form. When this is not possible these factors have to be incorporated qualitatively. - estimated benefits of the measure, the impacts of the measures on the environment and on society can be determined by comparing the “with” and “without” case. These impacts need to be described in terms of their contribution to the objectives or criteria, again preferably in monetary terms. Costs and benefits are mirror images and often benefits result in reduction of the social costs. Step 1 – Identifying current adaptation options/policies for floodplain i.e., structural: levees, dikes i.e., near real time early warning system i.e., disaster management policy/strategies i.e. poverty reduction strategies Step 1 – Identifying potential adaptation options/strategies, policies i.e., relocation

Step 2 – How do these options and policies need to be improved to deal with today’s climate? Reduce vulnerability today? Additional strategies identified?

Step 3 – How do these options and policies need to be improved to deal with future climate change and variability? Reduce vulnerability in the future? Additional strategies identified?

Step 4 – How to prioritise these adaptation options and policies? How to integrate them into existing policies? How to fill in the gaps? Costs? Feasibility? Effectiveness?

New options? Populate list from Steps 2 and 3 Table 15: Identification, analysis and prioritization of adaptation options. Source: UNDP, 2004.

Adaptation measures may be grouped according to whether they are sectoral (e.g., introduction of improved agricultural varieties), multi-sectoral (e.g., use of improved watershed and coastal zone management methods), or cross-sectoral (e.g., promotion of public awareness, climate research, and data collection): - sectoral measures relate to specific adaptations for sectors that could be affected by climate change; - multi-sectoral measures relate to the management of natural resources that span sectors – e.g. water management or river basin management. - cross-sectoral measures can span several sectors and include the following:  education and training (introduction of climate change issues at different levels of the educational system can help to build capacity among stakeholder to support adaptation in the future, and can help to develop appropriate research activities and a greater awareness among citizen);  public awareness campaigns (can raise awareness and disseminate information in order to increase the concern and involvement of the broad array of stakeholders);

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 strengthening/changes in the fiscal sector (public policies may encourage and support adaptation of individuals and the private sector, particularly through the establishment of fiscal incentives or subsidies);  risk/disaster management measures (including the development of early warning systems, in particular for extreme events like cyclones, and for droughts, floods, Emergency plans, extreme events relief and recovery measures also belong to this type of measure);  science, research and development (R&D) and technological innovations (R&D and innovation are needed to enable responses to climate change in general, and to enable specific responses to climate change vulnerability, including economic valuation of adaptations, technological adaptations and investigations of new sources of groundwater and better resource management.),  monitoring, observation and communication systems (these systems may have to be created or strengthened, particularly for climate-related parameters, but also for other indicators of climate change and impacts. After adaptation policies and measures have been formulated, they can be prioritised with various methods and, subsequently, rejected, postponed, or selected for implementation. Given the range of climate change impacts and the measures to avoid or mitigate these impacts, it is unlikely that one single method can handle all possible cases. From a methodological point of view, the threats caused by climate change are not essentially different from what people have been experiencing in the past. Therefore, evaluation methods used in the selection and prioritisation exercise need not differ either. However, the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events puts more emphasis on the treatment of uncertainty and risk. Sensitivity and risk analysis are therefore valuable elements in the decision-making process. Formal methods for prioritisation can most easily be applied to project-type (sectoral, and multisectoral) adaptation measures. Four main methods are likely to be particularly useful to the prioritisation process. These are: - Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA): CBA involves comparing costs and benefits of a measure with a view to deciding whether it is attractive to undertake an activity (a project or a project-type adaptation measure); - Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA): if benefits cannot be measured in a reliable manner, as is the case often with environmental goods and services, for instance, CEA is the appropriate method as it involves the costing of different options, which achieve the same objective, and compares those in order to find out how a well-defined objective can be reached in a leastcost way. - Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA): the ingredients of MCA are objectives, alternative measures/interventions, criteria (or attributes), scores that measures or value the performance of an option against the criteria, and weights (applied to criteria). - Expert judgement: it may also be that data unavailability or the complexity of the problem suggest the use of expert judgement. Employing a panel of experts may aim at taking a decision or at producing suitable information for decision making. A structured way to engage experts is the DELPHI method. It involves sending questionnaires to experts (rather than getting them in one meeting), collating answers, and feeding those back to the experts and/or send a second questionnaire. An important ingredient of DELPHI is that experts give their opinions independently and anonymously. The results are given in the form of a statistical analysis of answers. In general, a useful way to organise data on adaptation policies and measures is to express the effects of measures in an “impact matrix” in which the measures to be compared are explored against the relevant criteria. The AIM (Action Impact Matrix) provides a way to link integrated sustainable development and climate change policies explicitly. It can help find “win-win” policies, which not only achieve conventional macroeconomic objectives (like growth), but also make local and national development efforts more sustainable, and address climate change issues. AIM

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demonstrates in practical and qualitative terms that economic growth, social justice and environmental sustainability can co-exist. One objective/criterion? Quantification and valuation possible?

No

One objective, but benefits not in money terms

No

Yes

Two objectives, weighting of benefits possible?

Yes

CBA

CEA

Yes No

Expert Panel

No data?

MCA

More objectives, some or all costs and benefits not in monetary units

Figure 4: Methods for the prioritization process of adaptation measures. Source: UNDP, 2004.

Before adaptation measures can be selected, the range of potential adaptation options should be evaluated in terms of their relative contribution towards achieving the desired outcome, the relative nature of associated risks, economic costs and benefits, technical feasibility, and their potential conflicts and synergies with other objectives (social, economic, legal, and related policies and regulations), as well as consideration of the implications of non-climatic factors. There may be practical, cost-effective options that deliver the required adaptation and which also minimise the risks associated with implementation even in the face of associated uncertainties. These options are normally referred to as no-regrets, low-regrets, and win-win options, and should be identified and selected where possible. No-regrets options: adaptive measures whose socio-economic benefits exceed their costs whatever the extent of future climate change. These types of measures include those that are cost-effective and justified under current climate conditions and are further justified when their introduction is consistent with addressing risks associated with projected climate changes. Focusing on no-regrets options is particularly appropriate for the near term as they can deliver obvious and immediate benefits and can provide experience on which to build further assessments of climate risks and adaptation measures. Examples: - actions or activities directed at building adaptive capacity as part of an overall adaptive strategy; - avoiding building in high-risk areas (eg. Flood plains) when locating or re-locating; - reducing leakage from water utility infrastructure; - building/designing property and buildings to minimise over-heating in summer months; - reducing the consequences of flooding through the use of water resistant materials for floors, walls and fixtures, and the siting of electrical controls, cables and appliances at a higher than normal level; - introducing multiple season recreation facilities.

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Low-regrets (or limited regrets) options: adaptive measures for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be relatively large. Examples: - building extra climate headroom in new developments to allow for further modifications in the future (eg. Increased ventilation, drainage) consistent with projected changes in temperature and precipitation; - restricting the type and extent of development in flood-prone areas; - promoting the creation and preservation of space (eg. Verges, agricultural land, and green urban areas, including roofs) in support of biodiversity goals; - sharing in developing and operating additional water storage facilities ( eg: water groups building and operating a joint water reservoir). Win-win options: adaptation measures that have the desired result in terms of minimising the climate risks or exploiting potential opportunities but also have other social, environmental or economic benefits. Within the climate change context, win-win options are often associated with those measures or activities that address climate impacts but which also contribute to mitigation or other social and environmental objectives. These types of measures include those that are introduced primarily for reasons other than addressing climate risks, but also deliver the desired adaptation benefits. Examples are: - flood management that includes creating or re-establishing flood plains which increase flood management capacity and support biodiversity and habitat conservation objectives; - improving preparedness and contingency planning to deal with risks (including climate); - improving the cooling capacity of building through increased shading and/or alternative less energy intensive cooling strategies; - green roofs and green walls which have multiple benefits in terms of reducing building temperature and rainfall runoff from buildings, and increased green spaces within urban areas, but also reduces energy use for both heating and cooling. A complementary approach is to introduce adaptation measures through Flexible or adaptive management. This approach can be particularly effective when the risks associated with inaction are high, and when the uncertainty and the risk associated with introducing inappropriate adaptation measures is also high. Flexible or adaptive management involves putting in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation all at once. Some of the measures that will be included may be no-regrets, low-regrets or win-win. They may also include preparations towards, or incremental introduction of, more costly or risky measures. Key to this approach is that measures should be introduced in a timed or sequential manner, based on an evaluation of risks, costs, feasibility, and contribution to desired outcomes. This also means that adaptation measures are introduced through an assessment of what makes sense today, but as part of a sequence of responses that also allows for incremental or directional change in future, as vulnerability, knowledge, experience and technology evolve. The performance of introduced measures should be continually reviewed to identify the need for, and nature of, next steps. A decision to “delay� introducing a specific adaptation measure, or suite of measures, can be part of flexible or adaptive management approach. Delaying introduction of a specific adaptation measure may be necessary where the risk of under or over-adapting is particularly high, when the climate risks are below defined thresholds or when the required adaptive capacity (eg. Regulatory or institutional circumstances) is insufficient to support taking the specified measure. Adaptation, to be continually effective, will need to evolve with changing internal and external circumstances and as such, should be approached as a continuous improvement process. Climate and socio-economics will continue to change as will risks and/or aversions to those risks. As such, the viability and improvements to existing measures or additional or alternative measures implemented in light of these changes. This continuous improvement process provides an opportunity to incorporate lessons learned through implementation and living with previous adaptation efforts, including those undertaken by others, as well as technological innovations and increased scientific understanding (UKCIP, 2005). - 37 -


Selection and assessment of adaptation options

Method

Source

Priority planning areas

Vulnerability-Risk matrix

ICLEI

Guiding principles: 1. increase public awareness of climate change and its projected impacts on the community; 2. increase the technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts; 3. mainstream information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks and preparedness into planning, policy and investment decisions; 4. increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural and human systems in the community; 5. strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risks to climate change impacts.

ICLEI

Setting preparedness goals

Suggestions: - to address all of the guiding principles (as relevant) in each of the priority planning areas; - to engage others outside of the team; - to be clear about the timeframe; - to remember and remind the audience that preparing for climate change is an ongoing process.

ICLEI

Identify potential preparedness actions

Actions: - modifying policies, practices, and procedures; - diversifying options; - building new or upgrading existing infrastructure; - improving community awareness and preparedness; partnership building with other communities and agencies Key criteria: - will the actions meet your preparedness goals? - do the benefits of the action exceed the costs? - is the action robust under a range of climate change scenarios? - is the action flexible and does it increase flexibility in how a planning area is managed or functions? - can the action be implemented, and in what time frame? Additional factors: - are there unique “windows of opportunity� for implementing a particular action? - is the action equitable? - will the action decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or cultural resources? - will the action address a risk for which there is a greater scientific confidence?

ICLEI

Vision for community

a

climate

resilient

Selection and prioritization of the specific preparedness actions

Table 16: Steps and methods suggested for the selection and assessment of adaptation options.

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ICLEI


GUIDING QUESTIONS 1. What are the existing methods for managing climate risks and adaptation? Are these viable in the future, can these be built upon? 2. What other interventions can be utilized to reduce impacts and improve development outcomes? 3. Can these adaptation interventions be undertaken? What are the barriers? 4. What are the costs, impacts and barriers of each option (based on agreed criteria)? 5. How do the options compare through ranking? 6. What suite of policies and measures constitutes a cohesive approach to development and adaptation? Source: UNDP, 2004. Plan and implement concrete adaptation options Many of the tools used to implement preparedness actions are legislative, regulatory and/or fiscal authorities that governments use in its day-to-day operations. Few conventional tools that you may need when implementing the climate change preparedness actions could be the following: zoning rules and regulations, taxation, building codes/design standards, utility rates/fee setting, public safety rules and regulations, issuance of bonds, infrastructure development, permitting and enforcement, management practices, outreach and education, emergency management powers, partnership building with other communities. How can governments manage uncertainty and risk, given that they will always be factors in preparing for climate change? One approach is to implement no regrets, low regrets or win-win actions. Another approach is modeling, which should be viewed as one tool of many that the government can utilize for preparedness. Adaptation reduces the impacts of climate stresses on human and natural systems. It consists of a multitude of behavioral, structural and technological adjustments. Adaptation measures can vary in their timing (anticipatory vs. reactive; ex ante vs. ex post), scope (short-term vs. long-term; localized vs. regional), purposefulness(autonomous vs. planned; passive vs. active) and adapting agent (private vs. public; societies vs. natural systems). Examples of adaptation measures include changing crop varieties and altering farming practices, developing heat- and drought- resistant crops, diversifying livelihoods, building flood defenses and land-use planning. Nevertheless, the need to adapt to changing environmental and climatic conditions is not a new one. Societies throughout history have had to adapt to variations or changes in their climate through a variety of strategies and by using knowledge accumulated through experience of past climatic events. In addition, societies have also had to cope with and respond to extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. A broad range of adaptation measures can be implemented in response to both observed and anticipated climate change. Such measures include altering farming practices and crop varieties, building new water reservoirs, enhancing water use efficiency, changing building codes, investing in air-conditioning, and constructing sea walls. To better understand this diversity, it is possible to classify adaptation measures into the following generic options or categories (IPCC, 2001): Bear losses. All adaptation measures may be compared with the baseline response of - doing nothing except bearing or accepting the losses. In theory, bearing loss occurs when those affected have no capacity to respond in any other ways (for example in extremely poor communities) or where the costs of adaptation measures are considered to be high in relation to the risk or the expected damages. Share losses. This type of adaptation response involves sharing the losses among a wider community. Such actions take place in traditional societies and in the most complex, high-tech societies. In traditional societies, many mechanisms exist to share losses among a wider community, - 39 -


such as extended families and village-level or similar small-scale communities. At the other end of the spectrum, large-scale societies share losses through public relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction paid for from public funds. Sharing losses can also be achieved through insurance. Modify the threat. For some risks, it is possible to exercise a degree of control over the environmental threat itself. When this is a natural event such as a flood or a drought, possible measures include flood control works (dams, dikes, levees). For climate change, the major modification possibility is to slow the rate of climate change by reducing GHGs and eventually by stabilizing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere (i.e. mitigation). Prevent effects. A frequently used set of adaptation measures involves steps to prevent the effects of climate change and variability. For example, in agriculture such measures include: changes in crop management practices, such as increased irrigation water, additional fertilizer use, and pest and disease control. Change use. Where the threat of climate change makes the continuation of an economic activity impossible or extremely risky, consideration can be given to changing the use. For example, a farmer may choose to substitute a more drought tolerant crop or switch to varieties with lower moisture. Similarly, crop land may be returned to pasture or forest or other uses may be found such as recreation, wildlife refuges, or national parks. Change location. A more extreme response is to change the location of economic activities. There is considerable speculation, for example about relocating major crops and farming regions away from areas of increased aridity and heat to areas that are currently cooler and which may become more attractive for some crops in the future. Research. The process of adaptation can also be advanced by research into new technologies and new methods of adaptation. Encourage behavioral change through education, information and regulation. Another type of adaptation is the dissemination of knowledge through education and public information campaigns, leading to behavioral change. Such activities have been little recognized and have received low priority in the past, but are likely to assume increased importance as the need to involve more communities, sectors and regions in adaptation becomes apparent. Dealing with uncertainty. Not accepting the need to adapt to projected changes in climate and difficulties with taking decisions to adapt are often attributed to the lack of certainty associated with projected climate futures. Uncertainty, however, should not be used as an excuse for not taking appropriate action. An effective way of addressing concerns around making decisions in the face of uncertainty is adopting a flexible or adaptive management approach which involves implementing the required adaptation measure in a phased manner. Fundamental to this approach is a clear understanding of the risks (both existing and their evolution with time) and the scope of potential adaptation measures in terms of realising the desired objectives. A flexible/adaptive management approach may be preferred after consideration of the nature of the risks and the associated costs and benefits of proposed adaptation measures in light of the associated uncertainties. It may also be preferred as it recognises that our understanding of the risks and of the efficacy of a particular adaptation measure will be changing with time.

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Plan and implement concrete adaptation options Tools to implement preparedness actions

Method

Source

Zoning rules and regulations, taxation, building codes/design standards, utility rates/fee setting, public safety rules and regulations, issuance of bonds, infrastructure development, permitting and enforcement, management practices, outreach and education, emergency management powers, partnership building with other communities.

ICLEI

Manage uncertainty and risk

- No regrets, low regrets, win-win actions; - Modeling

ICLEI

Table 17: Steps and methods suggested for planning and implementing concrete adaptation options.

3.1.6 Stakeholder engagement and communication Adaptation occurs through public policy-making and decisions made by stakeholders, i.e. individuals, groups, organizations (governmental agencies or non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and their networks. Relevant stakeholders need to be brought together to identify the most appropriate forms of adaptation. Analyzing the capacity of stakeholders to cope with and adapt to climatic events is fundamental to characterizing current and possible future vulnerability. Understanding the role of stakeholders in the decision-making process will assist in the implementation of adaptation policies. In short, stakeholders are central to the adaptation process. Stakeholders are fundamental to the process of adaptation, as it is they who will comprise the adaptation community that is required to sustain the process. Each of the five components of the APF involves stakeholders in a number of ways. The composition of the stakeholder group may change as the types of activities change. The involvement of stakeholders will be essential throughout in: designing the project, determining the analytical approach to be used, evaluating candidate policies and measures, continuing the process and communicating results of the efforts. The term stakeholder in climate change studies refers to policy makers, scientists, administrators, communities, and managers in the economic sectors most at risk. In this context, stakeholders can be brought together from both public and private enterprises to develop a joint understanding of the issues and to create adaptations. The definition of stakeholders used here is those who have interests in a particular decision, either as individuals or as representatives of a group. Stakeholders are individuals or groups who have the current and past experience of coping with, and adapting to, climate variability and extremes. The principal resource for responding to climate change impacts is people themselves, and their knowledge and expertise. Through an ongoing process of negotiation, they can assess the viability of adaptive measures. Through listening to the views of others, stakeholders can build a shared understanding of the issues. This process requires time to build trust between the groups and individuals involved, and can be empowering, as solutions are worked out collaboratively. Adaptive capacity is developed if people have time to strengthen networks, knowledge, resources and the willingness to find solutions. Approaches for stakeholder engagement. There are a great number of approaches to stakeholder engagement, and no single formula for success. Rather, there are combinations of tools and techniques that will be well-suited to a given situation. The choice of which to use depends on the complexity of the issues to be discussed and the purpose of the engagement, both of which will be determined in the initial steps of the project where a careful evaluation of the time and resources available should be performed. Stakeholder engagement approaches vary from quite passive interactions, where the stakeholders provide information, to “self-mobilisation”, where the stakeholders themselves initiate and designing the process. The different levels of participation can be illustrated using the “ladder of participation”. Different levels of participation will be appropriate for different stages of the project and given the experience of the research team. However, it is important that the stakeholders understand how they are being involved, how the information they provide will be used and whether they have any power to influence decisions. - 41 -


Who is involved in the scoping and designing an adaptation project? During the review process, the project team can start to build up a directory of national and international entities (e.g., experts, agencies, NGOs and project managers) whose work is related to adaptation and who could be a source of information and support. It is important to include key people at an early stage of the project. The relevant national and regional governmental decisionmakers should be encouraged to read and comment on these initial reports. Who is involved in assessing current vulnerability? At this stage people and groups who would be increasingly affected by the foreseen impacts, either positively or negatively, as well as those who have a role in influencing adaptation, would likely be involved. Ideally, the most vulnerable would be engaged. It is important to develop a common understanding among the stakeholders of what is meant by the words used (i.e. vulnerability, adaptation, climate risk). Having this shared understanding is the first step to finding realistic solutions and building capacity. A local-level process may need to be preceded by an awareness-raising campaign in order to engage people and give them a clearer understanding of what may happen and how it might affect them or the group that they represent. Stakeholders can document the measures or strategies they use or have used in the past to cope with climatic events. This provides a collective understanding of how the various social, economic and environmental systems might behave under different climatic conditions. A report containing a summary of the stakeholder discussions and the initial analysis on the socioeconomic situation and the current state of vulnerability can be presented back to all the stakeholders who have been involved up to this stage to enable them to check that it is a fair account. Indicators and models that relate climate events, the socio-economic context, and the impacts of climatic hazards can be identified, tested and agreed either using data in the report or with the stakeholders themselves. These can be used to evaluate the future vulnerability. Who is involved in assessing future climate risks? Essentially, the same stakeholders engaged in the previous stage will be involved, such as policy-making process and in decision-making in the relevant sector, and stakeholders that have been involved in developing scenarios of the possible climatic and socio-economic futures. Stakeholders involved in the policy-making process and in decision making in the relevant sector will decide what planning horizons to work toward for the chosen region/sectors. Future risks can be evaluated using impact thresholds. This concept suggests that certain thresholds can be identified in a system using models, as well as the knowledge and experience of stakeholders, and their perception of possible future. For example, stakeholders involved in dam construction, with a time horizon of more than 50 years, and in park management with an even longer horizon will benefit greatly from the availability of information on future climate vulnerability and risk. The project team will likely choose to synthesize stakeholder input on the possible climatic and socio-economic futures. These syntheses can be disseminated, with an executive summary, to local or regional policy makers. Who is involved in formulating an adaptation strategy? At this stage, all stakeholders have a role to play, particularly local, regional and national policy makers. Together, the project team and the stakeholders can initiate a process for evaluating the viability of the proposed adaptation strategies and identifying key areas for further action. Policy makers play a key role in this step. Proceedings of workshops, technical reports and a summary for policy-makers can be disseminated and used as a guide to the next stage of the adaptation process. Who is involved in continuing the adaptation process? All stakeholders including the range of policy makers are involved. The national and/or regional meetings described should have resulted in an in-depth evaluation of the results and the identification of a list of priority areas for action to reduce vulnerability. This stage is the point at which the project team and stakeholders start implementing an action plan to address these priority areas, begin crafting realistic next steps to achieve these goals, and determine how the results can be included in existing plans and budgets. At the action planning stage, the project team may wish to scale back its facilitation and guidance role. If the process has managed to build sufficient capacity among the stakeholders, they, or a - 42 -


network of them, can step in to undertake the roles formerly played by the team. Alternatively, the project team can continue to play a mentoring role for some time before the stakeholders groups feel confident enough to take the lead. In any case, the project team and stakeholders will both have a role in monitoring and evaluating the performance of the adaptation measures and the next steps of the adaptation. In synthesis, there is no one size fits all solution to engaging stakeholders for enhancing adaptive capacity. However, a few key points can help guide the process (Source: UNDP, 2004). Stakeholder engagement communication Identifying stakeholders

Approaches engagement

Guidelines engagement

for

for

and

stakeholders

effective

Method

Source

A simple but effective iterative method is to ask the initial group of stakeholders identified by the project team at the beginning to suggest other stakeholders who are, in turn, asked the same question until no more individuals can be identified. This method can be applied in each stage of the process. However, limited time and other resources will ultimately limit the number of stakeholders involved. Ladder of participation: - catalysing change, where community members influence other groups to initiate change. - self-mobilisation, stakeholders take the initiative. They may contact external organisations for advice and resources but ultimately they maintain the control. - interactive participation. Joint analysis and joint action planning. The stakeholders themselves take control and have a common goal to achieve. - functional participation. Enlisting help in meeting the pre-determined objectives of a wider plan/programme. Stakeholders tend to be dependent on external resources and organisations. - participation by consultation. Asking for views on proposals and amending them to take these views into account. - participation in giving information. People are involved in interviews or questionnaire based “extractive� research. No opportunity is given to influence the process or to contribute to or even see the final results. - Clarity. clarify the objectives and goals of the engagement and evaluate the appropriateness of the techniques. - Understanding of related processes. Be clear about how the engagement fits in with official decision-making processes. - Management of information. Having access to information is a form of power. Information should be provided in an accessible way, without using complex concepts and jargon. - Support and capacity development. Some groups may need training or other support to educate them to the level of other stakeholders. - Transparency. Stakeholder groups should be identified in an open and transparent manner. - Trust-building. Stakeholders processes may bring together groups with opposing views – and with them, possibly a lack of trust. - Time for the process. Lack of time is given as one of the most common constraints of many engagement processes. - Feedback and flexibility. Participatory processes can be very flexible. If one technique is not working, another can be used or the questions changed to obtain the

UNDP

- 43 -

UNDP


required information. - Local governments, early warning systems and disaster prevention institutions - Regional/local research centres and universities - Local environmental/development NGOs - Local communities/people affected by climate risks and damages Technique for the start: Techniques for engagement - Paired interview - Hope and fears - Expectations and ground rules - Agenda setting Technique to promote discussion, scope issues and identify gaps: - Buzz groups - Brainstorming - Card sorting, Delphi technique - Spider diagrams - Nominal group technique - Carousel - Johari’s window Techniques for participatory analysis: - Maps - Calendars and timelines - Ranking and scoring - Diagrams Techniques for evaluation: - Smiley sheets - Evaluation wheel - Hopes and fears scoring - Feedback boards - Representatives Other technique: - Consensus conference - Focus groups - Citizen’s jury - Scenario building - Visioning Key points - Why engage stakeholders? Because they have knowledge and ideas that are relevant to the process, decisions made will affect them, and they are more likely to consent to such decisions if they feel they have contributed to making them. - Decide what level of engagement is appropriate and which are the key stakeholders for each stage - Be clear about the aims and objectives of the engagement, how it should operate and what is expected of participants. - Encourage and support those who are unfamiliar with voicing ideas and information - Use techniques that are appropriate for the group involved and type of information required - Decide which techniques are appropriate and feasible to feed back useful information and results to the stakeholders involved Table 18: Steps and methods suggested for stakeholder engagement and communication. Potential local stakeholders

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UNDP

UNDP


3.1.7 Monitoring, evaluation and review Four recurring steps to take are suggested: - measure the progress in implementing the preparedness actions developed, and identify whether they are helping to meet the vision of a climate resilient community; - periodically review the basic assumptions, including those related to the vulnerability and risk assessments that guided the identification of priority planning areas, the vision and guiding principles for a climate resilient community, the preparedness goals set to meet this vision in the priority planning areas, and the information collected from measuring the results of the actions. Some or all of the important assumptions guiding the preparedness efforts will change over time. - update the climate change preparedness plans and actions regularly, based on the information collected from measuring the progress and reviewing the assumptions. - share the learning, by look beyond the plans for opportunities to share climate change information. To develop measures of resilience they must be first considered the guiding principles used to set the preparedness goals. Reframing the guiding principles in the form of questions could be useful in order to understand whether the preparedness actions are meeting the vision that they set. It must be taken into consideration that climate change preparedness is an ongoing process. As natural, social, economic and political conditions change, the original assumptions may also need to change by reviewing some questions: - have new peer-reviewed scientific findings improved or changed your understanding of your community’s vulnerabilities? - have your priority planning areas changed? - are your vision and guiding principles still relevant to the results your team wants to achieve? - have you collected significant new information about the success (or failure) of your preparedness action in building climate change resilience? Once collected new info for reviewing and modifying the basic assumptions it is the time to update the climate change preparedness actions and plan by incorporating the most urgent and/or specific information in budget proposals and other short-term decisions and the new climate change information into the regular planning updates. Transparency and accountability in the climate change preparedness effort can help the public and the team see that the actions achieve desired results. Sharing the results publicly will also help improve the community partnerships. Have the actions delivered the benefits you expected? how can they be changed based on what you have learned? have your priority planning areas changed? do you need to assess climate change impacts on new planning areas or add new members to your preparedness team? What are the basic actions that a public decision-maker can take today to ensure a positive lasting influence on the government and community, so that future generations do not bear the worst effects of climate change? Final thoughts on this issue could concern a focus on reducing vulnerabilities and risks, by either reducing the sensitivity of systems in priority planning areas, or by building the adaptive capacity. In order to reduce the risk, the aim could be to seek either to lower the probability of an impact occurring or to reduce its consequence, by avoiding high-risk choices (e.g. preventing new development in a floodplain). Furthermore, the establishment of institutions to deal with climate change impacts on an ongoing basis could be useful. Finally, the preparedness process should be flexible to a range of climate scenarios (Snover A. K., 2007).

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Principles of effective adaptation Through our work we have identified some of the principles of good climate adaptation. You should be aware of these, and seek to apply them as you work your way through the Wizard. Many of these are principles for good decision-making more generally. They are: - Work in partnership: identify and engage your community and ensure they are well informed. - Understand risks and thresholds, including associated uncertainties. - Frame and communicate SMART objectives/outcomes before starting out (i.e. specific, measurable, achievable, results-oriented, and time-bound objectives). - Manage climate and non-climate risks using a balanced approach – assess and implement your approach to adaptation in the context of overall sustainability and development objectives that includes managing climate and non-climate risks. - Focus on actions to manage priority climate risks – identify key climate risks and opportunities and focus on actions to manage these. - Address risks associated with today’s climate variability and extremes as a starting point towards taking anticipatory actions to address risks and opportunities associated with longer-term climate change. - Use adaptive management to cope with uncertainty – recognise the value of a phased approach to cope with uncertainty. - Recognise the value of no/low regrets and win-win adaptation options in terms of costeffectiveness and multiple benefits. - Avoid actions that foreclose or limit future adaptations or restrict adaptive actions of others. - Review the continued effectiveness of adaptation decisions by adopting a continuous improvement approach that also includes monitoring and re-evaluations of risks. Source: UKCIP Adaptation Wizard (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/). Monitoring, evaluation Method and review Guiding principle and measures: Measure the progress 1. Increase public awareness of climate change and its projected impacts on the community: - community surveys tracking participation in public meetings on climate change impacts; - surveys tracking hits to community-sponsored climate change webpages; - surveys tracking requests for climate change-related publications (e. g., fact sheets, brochures, reports) - surveys evaluating trends in the number and types of questions or comments received by government agencies about climate change in the priority planning areas; - surveys of the number of media stories about climate change impacts in the region; 2. Increase the technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts: - number of technical experts in the staff who can advise on the latest research about climate change impacts in the priority planning areas, and/or the existence of an ongoing relationship with outside climate science advisors; - the existence and regular use of ongoing forums for sharing the latest information on climate change in the priority planning areas with internal and external stakeholders, including governments employees, the business community, and the general public; 3. Mainstream information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks and preparedness into planning, policy and investment: - number of plans or other governing documents in the priority

- 46 -

Source ICLEI


4.

5.

planning areas in which climate change is addressed qualitatively or quantitatively; - existence and thoroughness of guidelines on how to integrate new or updated information on climate change vulnerability, risk and preparedness into decision making; - existence and number of dedicated staff to help facilitate preparedness actions across departments and external stakeholders; - existence and amount of funds for vulnerability and risk assessments, preparedness actions, and measurements of resilience; - existence of forums which have been established for information sharing about vulnerabilities, risks and preparedness; information about who attends these forums, what information is shared and used, and how information is shared and used. Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural and human systems in the community: - survey or accepted media coverage of how well the community handles an extreme heat event, a drought, or 100year rain event before and after certain preparedness actions have been implemented; - amount of money saved based on an implemented preparedness action, such as an improved flood hazard management plan, improved regional levee system, or other infrastructure investments made to improve adaptive capacity; - indication of the health of regional fish and wildlife, based on observations by leading ecologists and/or monitoring. Strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risk to climate change impacts: - the existence and regular use of ongoing forums for sharing the latest information on climate change with internal and external stakeholders, including government employees, the business community, and the general public; - the existence of consensus reports on vulnerabilities and risks in the priority planning areas, developed collaboratively by a full range of stakeholders; - the existence of a community task force or citizens advisory panel on climate change preparedness in the priority planning areas, representing a range of different community perspectives and other specific interest.

Periodically review the basic assumptions

Questions: - Have new peer-reviewed scientific findings improved or changed the understanding of the community’s vulnerabilities? - Have the priority planning areas changed? - Are the vision and guiding principles still relevant to the results the team wants to achieve? - Are there collected significant new information about the success (or failure) of the preparedness action in building climate change resilience?

ICLEI

Update the climate change preparedness plans and actions regularly

Suggestions: - Incorporate the most urgent and/or specific information in budget proposals and other short- term decisions; - Incorporate new climate change information into the regular planning updates.

ICLEI

Share the learning

Questions: - Have the actions delivered the benefits you expected? - How can they be changed based on what you have learned?

ICLEI

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-

Final thoughts

Have your priority planning areas changed? Do you need to assess climate change impacts on new planning areas or add new members to your preparedness team?

-

Focus on reducing vulnerability, by reducing the sensitivity of systems or by building the adaptive capacity; - Focus on reducing risk, by lowering the probability of an impact occurring or by reducing its consequence; - Establish institutions to deal with climate change impacts on an ongoing basis; - Building the preparedness process to be flexible; - Take action Table 19: Steps and methods suggested for the monitoring, evaluation and review.

ICLEI

GUIDING QUESTIONS 1. What are the channels for integrating the policy, plan or project into development plans and policies? What barriers exist, including capacity? 2. What are the necessary management, oversight, implementation and support structures? 3. What are the indicators of progress, and over what time scale and how should they be tracked? 4. What is the strategy for reviewing, monitoring and evaluating impacts? Source: UNDP, 2004.

3.2 Barriers to overcome The ability to make or implement a decision to adapt to climate change could be constrained by barriers in the operational environment. These may stem from a lack of awareness or from an unsupportive institutional environment. They may also stem from a lack of resources, unclear responsibilities, lack of technical information or limited availability of information. Acknowledging and addressing such constraints at the outset will help implement decisions your adaptation strategy may call for. Awareness of climate change is often not sufficient to bring about change. To bear meaningful results, awareness raising must be met with: Agency – giving people a sense that they have the power to do something to bring about change. Association – working with the right people will help to implement change. Identify barriers and means of overcoming them.  Identify potential barriers and constraints to implementing change, and consider how they might be overcome.  Understand how changes are usually implemented. Consider who needs to be involved, the context of your work, relevant regulations or legislation that influence your activities, performance targets, etc.  Check that you have engaged all those that need to be involved both within and beyond your organisation. Adaptation is not a process that can be imposed on organisations or people. Investing time and effort in getting the right people on board at the outset will facilitate implementation. Willingness and ability to adapt are often affected by real and perceived barriers and constraints. This can lead to questioning the need for adaptation or may limit the effectiveness of a particular option. Constraints or barriers include the following: - limited understanding of climate risks and vulnerabilities – current and projected; - lack of supportive policies, standards, regulations, and design guidance. Encouraging status quo and/or presenting impediments to progress; - existing legal or regulatory restrictions; - lack of availability or restricted access to appropriate technologies; - 48 -


- costs of identified adaptation options when budget are limited; - lack of availability of resources such as in-house expertise; - social/cultural/financial rigidity and conflicts; - short-term nature of planning horizons – necessity of realising return on investment; - there are also barriers associated with perceptions of uncertainty. To help overcome these barriers, it can be helpful to build adaptive capacity improving the understanding of climate change, associated risks and vulnerabilities, along with actions related to understanding and updating the institutional and legal frameworks (i.e. those constraining or enhancing adaptive capacity), are useful for eliminating these barriers (UKCIP, 2005).

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PART 4. TO PRACTICE: REGIONAL AND LOCAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND PLANS 4.1 Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans: some examples in and outside Europe National adaptation strategies put climate change adaptation on the political agenda and generally provide a framework for the development of Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies (RAS and LAS). Recently, some international experiences have shown the direct involvement of local authorities in drafting local adaptation plans, such as the Toronto Adaptation Plan, and other local adaptation plans for New York City and Seattle (Penney J., 2008; New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2010; Seattle Climate Protection Initiative, 2009). The City of Toronto is one of the first cities in Canada to develop a comprehensive climate change adaptation plan – the Climate Change Adaptation in the City of Toronto - as a result of a lengthy and thoughtful process which took place from March 2007 to June 2008. In the city of Toronto stormwater management represents one of the primary areas of vulnerability under a changing climate. The challenge is therefore to understand how more intense storms, as a result of climate change, add to the existing challenges of preventing floods, erosion and water pollution in Toronto and to identify the actions needed in order to adapt to climate change and to enhance the city’s resilience to intense storms. The report identifies 19 relevant lessons learned for other Great Lakes communities that are looking to develop their own adaptation strategies and processes. In the case of New York City, one of the central impacts of climate change will be the likely sea level rise caused by melting polar ice. The Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response (2010) should be developed as part of a risk management process, an approach that has governed the work of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). The plan aims to protect the city’s vital infrastructure, work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies and launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation. In order to favour this process, the NPCC has produced New York City-specific climate change projections and a clearly defined adaptation assessment process to assist stakeholders in the identification and prioritization of potential risks that should be taken into account when making investment and planning decisions. The goal of the NPCC is to contribute to an effective, ongoing, and beneficial process for responding to the risks that climate change poses to New York City in the coming decades. This is a challenging task, but the City of New York is well on its way to implementing a comprehensive climate change adaptation strategy and institutionalizing ongoing adaptation planning. Also the City of Seattle is in the process of developing a climate impacts preparedness kit of sorts, incorporating adaptation strategies like natural drainage, drought-tolerant plants, and heat response plans. In 2009, the City continued to prepare for climate impacts by enhancing its research efforts, increasing its collaboration efforts with other organizations, and developing new tools to improve our reading of the world around us. Water conservation and adjusting to sea level rise are the two most critical issues Seattle will have to face in the next future (Seattle Climate Protection Initiative, 2009). In Europe, the need to adapt to a rapidly changing climate is high but a scarcity of concrete RAS and LAS is still pointed out. In September 2009 only thirty-one Regional and Local Strategies targeting climate change impacts were identified in six EU countries: France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Sweden and Spain. This is in some way surprising since Southern Europe countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change and RAS/LAS could be expected particularly from these areas. However it is likely that the list of existing regional adaptation strategies is not comprehensive for many reasons, as information about adaptation at local and regional level is often in national language only and not easily accessible on internet and often adaptation is included as a component in overall climate change plans mainly focused on mitigation (Ribeiro et al., 2009). - 51 -


In the Figure 5 the output map derived from Ribeiro M. et al. (2009) is illustrated.

Fig. 5: Climate change Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans in Europe. Source: Ribeiro, M. et al., 2009.

Regional strategies include initiatives undertaken by sub-national governments with varying levels of autonomy such as Länder (Germany), Communidades Autonomas (Spain), countries (in the unitary state of the UK) or provinces (Netherlands). Local strategies refer to the initiatives by large cities or urban agglomerations such as Paris, London, Rotterdam and also Zaragoza and Murcia. The Plan parisien de lutte contre le dérèglement climatique (Mairie de Paris, 2007) presents both mitigation and adaptation sections. In terms of adaptation, the exposure of population to heat wave and the risk of flooding of the Seine represents the most hazardous problem to face in the next future. In order to minimize the impact of climate change, the local adaptation policy promoted the Plan canicule de Paris (i.e.: measures targeted to the implementation of a CHALEX (“chaleur extreme”) registry, measures for the people exposed to the risk, measures to manage the work conditions, a monitoring system for the local flora and fauna), the improvement of the comfort of the population in the indoor environment (i.e.: control of air conditioning, development of a professional sector concerning the summer comfort), the implementation of a program aiming at the “re-green” of the city (Mairie de Paris, 2010). Furthermore, the Plan de Prevention des Risques d’Inondation (PPRI) will allow to tackle the increasing flooding risk of the Seine. The Mayor’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of London (2010) has three main objectives: to identify who and what is most at risk today; to analyze how climate change will change the risk of flood, drought and heatwave through the century and to describe what action is needed to manage this and who is responsible. The key actions proposed in the strategy aim at the improvement of the understanding and management of surface water flood risk; the implementation of an urban greening program to increase the quality and quantity of green-space and vegetation in London, in order to buffer from floods and hot weather; to retro-fit to 1.2 m homes by 2015 to improve the - 52 -


water and energy efficiency of London homes. A roadmap to the resilience of London suggests the actions to be implemented starting from the winter 2010 until the summer 2011 in order to achieve the objectives declared (Greater London Authority, 2010). The Rotterdam Climate Initiative (RCI) aims at the reduction of CO2 emissions by 50% and the preparation of Rotterdam for the consequences of climate change. The new principal program to build up the city’s resilience to the impact of climate change, the Rotterdam Climate Proof (RCP), will ensure that Rotterdam will be climate proof by 2025. Permanent protection and accessibility of the city and the port are the key elements. The full focus of the program is on creating additional opportunities to enhance the attractiveness of the city in terms of living, recreation, working and investments. Together with prominent partners, Rotterdam will become one of the world’s leading innovative water knowledge cities and an inspiring example for other delta cities (Rotterdam Climate Initiative, 2009). In general, RAS and LAS have been developed in countries that also have a national strategy or where adaptation policies are well advanced, suggesting that policy development is evolving between the central and regional government. Generally, the national strategies can include possible legal obligations for such plans (UK), or merely encouragement and information support (most of the other countries).

4.2 Learning form the Mediterranean Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans In order to go beyond the current state of the art, the most representative Mediterranean RAS and LAS were selected and analyzed, by comparing key elements and by identifying possible strengths and weaknesses, so that the future initiatives can benefit from the past and get the most relevant elements to apply. In the table 18 the Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies and Plans analyzed in this document are listed. We looked just to formal RAS and LAS, i.e. that were developed by the respective governments for adoption by policy makers. Adaptation initiatives other than formal strategies or plan were not included. The strategies and plans selected among the European initiatives, can be considered the most representative adaptation projects carried out in the Mediterranean area. As such, they provide very useful examples concerning the approaches, methodologies, tools, indicators and measures to adopt in context experimenting similar environmental problems. Furthermore, the identification of weak points could be a useful starting point in order to make the new initiatives more complete and appropriate.

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Regional strategies and plans

Authority

[1] Estrategia Aragonesa de Cambio Climàtico y Energìas Limpias

Comunidad Autònoma de Aragòn

[2] Estrategia Canaria de Lucha contra el Cambio Climàtico

Comunidad Autònoma de Canarias

[3] Estrategia de Acciòn frente al Cambio Climàtico en Cantabria

Comunidad Autònoma de Cantabria

[4] Estrategia de Cambio Climàtico para Extremadura

Comunidad Autònoma de Extremadura

[5] Estrategia de la Region de Murcia frente al cambio climatico 2008-2012 (ERMCC) [6] Estrategia Valenciana ante el Cambio Climatico 2008-2012: 125 medidas para la Mitigacion y Adaptaciòn al Cambio Climatico de la Comunidad Valenciana [7] Pacto Regional contra el Cambio Climatico de Castilla-La Mancha [8] Plan Andaluz de Acciòn por el Clima. 2007-2012

Regiòn de Murcia

[9] Plan de Acciòn del Gobierno de Aragòn

Comunidad Autònoma de Aragòn

[10] Plan de acciòn por el Clima en Navarra

Comunidad Autònoma de Navarra

[11] Plan Vasco de Lucha Contra el Cambio Climatico

Pais Vasco

Local strategies and plans

Authority

Comunidad Valenciana

Comunidad Autònoma de Castilla-La Mancha Comunidad Autònoma de Andalucìa

[12] Estrategia Local frente al Cambio Climatico del Municipio de Municipio de Murcia Murcia (2008-2012) [13] Estrategia de Adaptaciòn al Cambio Climatico en la ciudad de Ayuntamiento de Zaragoza Zaragoza Table 20: Regional and Local adaptation Strategies and Plans assessed in this study. Source: Ribeiro, M. et al., 2009; Oficina Espanola de Cambio Climàtico, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Medio Rural y Marino, Espana.

As seen in the table, the thirteen initiatives selected are Spanish: six regional strategies, a regional pact, four regional plans, and two local strategies. Nevertheless, it is possible to draw some relevant conclusions from the comparative analysis performed. After an initial review of the available literature on adaptation strategies and plans, an analysis scheme was drawn on the basis of specific key issues (Annex I): - general information; - knowledge base framework; - stakeholder involvement and communication; - adaptation options; - monitoring, evaluation and review. 4.2.1 General information Many of the documents analyzed present both mitigation and adaptation sections. In this way, they look at actions and measures that can address the issue of climate change from both perspective. The objectives are therefore clearly addressed to the reduction of the GHGs emissions (mitigation) and to the reduction of vulnerability of natural resources and economic sectors to climate change (adaptation). Nevertheless, actions and strategies often vary between the two agendas and are managed by different groups of decision-makers. Synergies between mitigation and adaptation should therefore be explored in the RAS. In addition to the general objectives of mitigation and adaptation, other relevant specific and crosssectoral adaptation objectives are addressed: - to the increase of knowledge and awareness on climate change [2, 6, 8, 9, 12]; - to the involvement of social and economic agents [3, 6, 9]; - to the promotion of research, development and innovation (I+D+i) in the field of climate change and clean energy [2, 6]; - to work with local governments in designing and developing their own strategies [6]; - 54 -


- to be pioneer in the development of solutions to climate change [4]; - to integrate adaptation into sectoral planning [9]. Only in one case the objectives were also sector-specific [1], thus addressing both general issues and economic sectors and environmental systems. Since a National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) is in place in Spain, regions should make sure that their objectives and strategic direction do not run against the overall objectives of the NAS. Clear targets linked to specific objectives were rarely defined when designing the objectives of a RAS or LAS. However, this may reduce the chances of maladaptation and will be key for monitoring and evaluation as they are tied directly to the targets, which should therefore be measurable and precise. In general, each Strategy or Plan presents its own structure. An interesting approach set out strategic axes of action by identifying sectoral actions affecting the different sectors on one side (i.e. industry, transportation, residential, services but also water resources, health, tourism), and crosssectoral actions involving various sectors together on the other side [3]. Five policy areas were identified in the Strategy of the Murcia Region: mitigation, adaptation, information, training and dissemination, research, development and innovation and horizontal measures, as well as five programs of measures were identified in the Plan of the Andalusia Region: immediate actions, analysis of impacts, adaptation, knowledge and governance. As regards the plans, the measures proposed were sub-divided into different programs with specific targets in terms of adaptation, mitigation and programs with a double nature [9, 11]. 4.2.2 The knowledge base framework The development of Adaptation Strategies and Plans strictly depends on the availability of appropriate scientific information. Many RAS and LAS and plans were performed on the basis of partial assessment of the vulnerability of sectors, climate change and impacts scenarios developed at a broader scale than the local level, and without taking into the appropriate consideration the future evolution of the socio-economic context. In some cases climate scenarios were derived from the international framework (i.e. IPCC), or from national studies (i.e. State Agency of Meteorology) and from regional analysis [5]. The downscaling of global and national information into information relevant at local level still represents a challenging issue and gathering local information is thus crucial for the formulation of a RAS. Also current climate change impacts and vulnerability were often derived from international studies (i.e. IPCC, EEA) but also from national analysis (i.e. Preliminary assessment of the impacts of climate change in Spain). Some indicators about vulnerability were proposed, such as: classification risk in agriculture (olive grove, vineyards, rice, orchards), water resources vulnerability in coastal areas, number of days with T > 37,5 째C in July and vulnerability of Quercus ilex in 2050 [8]. In general RAS and LAS do not describe methodologies and models used to assess the future impacts and vulnerability. Specific examples are mentioned in some cases such as the analysis of the future decrease in river runoff [1], the development of drought and desertification indexes, the fire risk index and the phytoclimatic index [8]. In general a lack of technical information about the impacts modeling which will give a more accurate account of potential changes in flooding, drought, sea level rise or urban heat islands, and many other issues, was pointed out. RAS project budgets not always allow impacts modeling and so more informal assessment of climate impacts could be made using expert judgment to identify likely and serious threats. Concerning the current socio-economic conditions, only few RAS and LAS provided appropriate indicators. Gross Domestic Product at market prices and its components, sectoral distribution of employed population, participation of the agriculture in the national economy, value of aquaculture and fisheries represent some examples of indicators proposed [5]. Similar indicators were used in other cases, such as Gross Domestic Product growth rate, the occupational distribution of employment by sector by size of municipality or the population pyramid for Aragon [1]. - 55 -


Socio-economic scenarios were rarely used, except in the case of the Plan of the Andalusia Region where scenarios related to the economic and population growth were taken into account [8]. Local and indigenous knowledge should be better integrated into the process. Socio-economic analysis related to population projections, regional economic forecasts, scenarios of political organization, consumption patterns, infrastructure development and market transformation were rare even if these information are relevant for an adaptation Strategy/Plan. In fact, socio-economic scenarios provide likely descriptions of what society might be like in the future based on the development choices society makes. In order to develop an adaptation Plan, it is essential to know whether society will become more or less capable of adapting to climate change , for example through changes in inequality, population and economic growth. In principle, it is potentially inaccurate to base assessments of future vulnerability on climate scenarios alone. Changes in socio-economic conditions can have important effects on the way how vulnerability will change. However, socio-economic scenarios are rarely available at regional or local level and a reasonable prediction of the direction and extent of future change could be simply performed in consultation with the relevant experts and planners at the regional or local level. Different natural systems and economic sectors are analyzed in the Strategies and Plans. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biodiversity, forestry, coastal areas, soil, natural risk, health, water resources, agriculture, livestock and fisheries, energy, tourism and assurance represent the most common issues included (all or some of them) in an adaptation Strategy or Plan. In some cases also building sector and urban planning [1, 8, 13]; transports, industry [8, 13] were selected as vulnerable sectors. 4.2.3 Stakeholder involvement and communication Many Regional/Local adaptation Strategies/Plans acknowledge that successful adaptation requires stakeholder involvement and communication of information about climate change, but only a few have elaborated or implemented descriptive plans on how and when to do it. However, methods and approaches to involve stakeholder during the adaptation process were rarely clearly described. In general administration and public institutions, major social, economic and scientific-technical group, academy, experts and the citizenship represented the key stakeholders involved during the elaboration and the implementation of the adaptation Strategies and Plans, the main objective being to investigate whether the proposals and the measures proposed could respond to their expectations. The Basque Plan [11] provided a detailed description concerning the methods proposed to involve stakeholders. In this case a coordinated and continuous participation process of all the actors aiming at the promotion of the coordination between the various stakeholders and of the civic behaviors favorable to the objectives of the Plan was adopted. Appropriate tools were differentiated for the various stakeholders, so as to give them different responsibilities. In the citizen participation, a bidirectional communication will allow the citizenship to act for both suggestions/proposals and receptor of information. Participation of the productive sectors will be addressed to information and communication as well as to evaluation in order to perform an analysis of difficulties and objections associated to sectoral policies. The government and the public institutions will play the role of communicating, monitoring, reviewing and if necessary modifying the Plan. The coordinated use of different participatory tools will ensure the development of a dynamic participatory process and the involvement of the social global dimension: - the forum agents, addressed to publicly report to various social and economic groups on the level of progress of the Plan in relation to the initial objectives as well as to gather suggestions and contributions. Each of these forums will consists of separate meetings for different sectors (i.e. social forum, business forum, scientific-technical forum). - the inter-agency coordination forum, aiming at the analysis of the various actions carried out by the different administrations; - the interregional coordination forum, addressed to promote the collaboration between the regions in order to fight against climate change, by implementing platforms to share - 56 -


information and best practices and by promoting collaborations in sustainable development issues among regions. Communication and awareness raising represents a common key element of most adaptation Strategies/Plans. Three methods were proposed in the framework of the Strategy of Cantabria: formation, awareness raising and participation aiming at the dissemination of information on climate change at all levels of society and the promotion of consumption and production patterns coherent with the scenario of low CO2 emissions. In most Strategies and Plans measures related to communication, training and awareness are various, but in rare cases clear communication plans on climate change were developed. In the Basque Plan [11] public communication channels, aiming at the promotion and implementation of information and awareness campaigns about the Plan and its objectives, web pages, forum of citizenship for the local participation, training for action to schoolchildren in order to integrate climate change in educational centers, were implemented. 4.2.4 Adaptation options Adaptation options were defined on the basis of the structure of the document, the outputs of climate change and impact scenarios, and the sectors and systems identified. In general Spanish strategies focus on building adaptive capacity. This occurs because most of the actions in Spanish plans relate to finance and coordinate research and communication of findings to the population. Annex I lists various examples of adaptation measures proposed for the vulnerable economic sectors and natural systems in the regions and municipalities taken into consideration. This list could represent a sort of catalogue collecting the adaptation measures previously adopted in response to specific climate hazards and vulnerabilities. Most of actions aim in general to improve and develop the knowledge base as, for example: to study in depth the identification of health risks deriving from climate change [1]; to take into account the most sensitive population categories such as the elderly and the children [1]; to identify a biological indicator system related to the impacts of climate change [5]; to assess the vulnerability to climate change of habitats and key taxa [5]; to analyze of changes for mountain tourism [3]; to develop of activities addressed to improve knowledge on the effects of climate change on ecosystems and animal and plant species by giving priority to those that due to their location, sensitivity or conservation status are at high risk [11]. Other actions aim at the reduction of vulnerability such as, for example: to preserve the ecodiversity by avoiding the artificial homogenization of the landscape and the improvement of habitats and communities of the local biodiversity, by reducing habitats fragmentation and by increasing the connectivity among populations with particular attention to endemic or vulnerable taxas [1]; to build climate proof buildings [13]; to restrict construction in areas particularly vulnerable to climate change [3]; or at the strengthening of the adaptive capacity: - to develop action plans for public health based on early warning systems and development of a monitoring and early warning system for forest fire [5]; - to disseminate relevant, up-to-date and accessible information on climate change and the measures requested to face its consequences [1]; - to promote exchange and dissemination of information on climate change among governments, organizations, social groups and citizens [3]; - to promote information campaigns in schools by distributing interactive games, books, teaching guides [11].

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In rare cases actions aiming at taking advantage of opportunities were found, as for example the promotion of cultivation of better adapted plants to climate change [9]. Methods and criteria used to select and prioritize the measures were not clearly identified. Supporting this prioritization is an economic assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation, but none of the reviewed Strategies/Plans assessed the costs and benefits of adaptation in a comprehensive way nor do they clearly committed economic resources. Furthermore, more specific tools to support the integration and mainstreaming of adaptation into sectoral policies and criteria for assessing the impacts of adaptation actions on social, economic and environmental aspects should be strengthened. 4.2.5 Monitoring, evaluation and review The relevance and effectiveness of an adaptation strategy can only be assured if there is sufficient monitoring and evaluation through which to assess progress against set targets and objectives. Monitoring mechanisms and evaluation and review processes, or at least basic elements, were taken into account in various Strategies and Plans considered. It is essential that the strategic planning is designed as a continuous and flexible process and subjected to a periodic review. In most cases monitoring mechanisms were performed through appropriate indicators in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the actions implemented and to assess the degree of progress towards the achievement of the objectives. The frequency of the periodic monitoring varied from yearly to a bi-annual or multi-annual horizon. Various relevant indicators were found in the documents analyzed. In the Basque Plan [11], for example, specific quantitative targets were defined, such as the target to 2012: 100% of Departments of the Basque Government will have screened the effects of climate change in their policies, which was assessed through indicators such as the percentage of planning instruments including criteria in the field of climate change and percentage of new plans and projects integrating the climate variables. Other examples of monitoring indicators are related to the knowledge base improvement such as the number of research projects carried out (i.e. on vulnerability habitat, on biological indicator systems; on the effects of sea level rise, etc.), or to the reduction of vulnerability such as percentage of recovered degraded land for agriculture and forestry [1], the number of plans, programs and projects that integrate the effect of climate change in the impact assessment [4], the number of students involved in training activities on climate change [5], the budget for the development of information and awareness campaigns [6], percentage of native species or plants with low water requirements [12], number of houses built with bioclimatic criteria [13], or to the strengthening of adaptive capacity such as the number of campaigns organized. In general a frequent evaluation and review of the Strategy is not useful, since by their nature adaptation measures are related to a specific period. Obviously the frequency will depend on the type of measures. Most RAS will benefit from the existence of a Steering Group that periodically evaluate and review the RAS every 12-18 months. In the Strategy of Cantabria, each year the Departments of the Government involved in the Strategy will prepare a report describing the progress of measures as well as the reasons. Starting form these information, the General Direction of Environment will carried out an annual report that will elaborate the degree of compliance of the Strategy. These reports will be presented and analyzed by the Interdepartmental Commission on Climate Change, that will determine the actions to be implemented on the basis of the results performed. It is evident that strategies, policies and measures have to be conceived as part of a process and that they should be regularly evaluated and revised in regard to both validity of the underlying scientific assumptions and effectiveness and appropriateness of policies and measures. Our understanding of climate change, and experience of how to adapt, is increasing all the time. It is therefore necessary to evaluate and review the objectives and measures in order to make the Strategy is up to date and reflects best practices. Adapting to climate change is an iterative process. Consequently, each step in the process of developing a RAS should be re-visited periodically in - 58 -


order to ensure that data, assessment and resulting decisions remain valid and up-to-date, capitalizing on improvements in climate science and changes in the strategic priorities of the region (Ribeiro M. et al., 2009). Effective and efficient monitoring calls for two basic questions to be answered: what has to be monitored (objects and scope)? who has to monitor it (responsibilities)? It is therefore important that monitoring objects and responsibilities are clearly determined within the framework of the Strategy. Furthermore, the Strategy should provide the basic framework for this monitoring process with effective reporting obligations. Few documents analyzed clearly pointed out responsibilities, limits and forms for an effective and efficient reporting system. To produce effective evaluation, clear and precise objectives with specific time frame are required, related to meaningful and quantifiable indicators. Quantifiable objectives and related indicators can inform subsequent rounds of decision-making “in a continuous information feedback loop that enables dynamic readjustment of policy and practice� (Karkkainen, 2002). However, not every policy aim can be easily translated into quantifiable indicators. Considering the complexity and the regional dissimilarity of adaptation activities it is easy to understand that the search for indicators is a very demanding quest. It is not surprising that in the current RAS and LAS the quantified targets are very rare, nor are there meaningful indicators suitable to measure the degree of adaptation and vulnerability. Obviously research for functional adaptation indicators is still at its outset. Anyway, instruments of monitoring, evaluation and review would have to play a stronger role in the future Strategies and Plans (Swart R. et al., 2009).

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CONCLUSIONS To date there are many uncertainties about the way how climate will change in Europe, and how those changes will affect people, natural systems and socio-economic sectors. Also, uncertainties concern the best way to adapt to the future climate. In the future, climate change preparedness will therefore oblige to take decisions with incomplete and evolving information and to build an adaptation process flexible to a range of climate change scenarios. The severity of the impacts of climate change will vary by region, but evidences already demonstrate that the Mediterranean Basin is and will be more and more one of the most vulnerable regions in Europe. The challenge for policy-makers is therefore to recognize the climate change impacts and to promote the implementation of policies in order to ensure that communities will be prepared to tackle the negative effects of climate change. Adaptation is a relatively new topic on the political agenda of the European Union, though since 2005 many countries have already launched national initiatives with the main objective of promoting adaptation to climate change and drawing up policies, strategies and plans or sectoral programs, in order to ensure future sustainable development for their regions and avoid paying a very high price in terms of environmental damage, loss of human lives and economic costs. National adaptation strategies put climate change adaptation on the political agenda and generally provide a framework for the development of Regional and Local Adaptation Strategies. In the Mediterranean Basin, in particular, the need to adapt to a rapidly changing climate is high but a scarcity of concrete RAS and LAS is still pointed out today. France, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden and Spain represent the main sources of RAS and LAS in Europe, even if Strategies and Plans could be expected mainly from the most vulnerable Southern Europe. As pointed out in the EU White Paper, adaptation will be a long and continuous process. The reduction of vulnerability will be the main objective to achieve, either reducing the potential impacts of climate change or building the adaptive capacity. Furthermore, also the reduction of the risk will be critical, through the reduction of the probability of the impacts occurring or the mitigation of its consequences. A major research effort would therefore be needed in order to timely provide a sound and policyrelevant knowledge base. While a considerable amount of information and research already exists, it is not shared across the Member States. The establishment of the “EU Clearing House Mechanism” will serve as “an IT tool and database on climate-change impact and vulnerability, and best practices on adaptation”. As the Clearinghouse is not expected to be ready before 2011, other forums for exchange might be considered, such as ENCORE “Climate Change” working group, Three regions climate change group, Eurocities, Mayors Adaptation Forum. Furthermore, mainstreaming adaptation into sectoral policies still remain a challenge for the future policy implementation and represents one of the main ways of developing adaptation actions. For this purpose, adaptation process will operate at all levels and will be successful only by operating in close coordination with key stakeholders for the implementation of relevant policies. Appropriate review mechanisms will ensure that the new scientific evidences will be evaluated and eventually taken into account. Distinct objectives and indicators will make it possible to clearly identify the progress made and the remaining need for action. Since we have not reduced our contribution to the problem of climate change, we are all forced to prepare for climate change effects today, without waiting for tomorrow.

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ANNEX I – Analysis scheme of the Adaptation Regional and Local Strategies/Plans Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan Country/Region/Municipality Responsible body Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation □ Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

□ Yes

□ No

Timeline of actions Objectives Structure KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS List of measures Type of actions

□ Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities

Cost benefit analysis

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MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

□ Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly □ Two years □ More

Monitoring tools

□ Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION

Country/Region/Municipality

1. Estrategia Aragonesa de Cambio Climatico y Energias Limpias (EACCEL) Spain/Aragon Government

Responsible body

Environmental Department

Year of creation

2009

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes □ No

Timeline of actions

2008-2012

Objectives

Objectives of the elaboration process of the EACCEL 1. To analyse the current social and natural factors in relation to climate change in Aragon; 2. To identify the most relevant actions; 3. To propose adaptation and mitigation objectives for each sector; 4. To promote the participation of the stakeholders by involving the society in the starting up, implementation and functioning of the objectives and measures of the EACCEL. General objectives of the EACCEL To promote the reduction of the GHGs emissions in Aragon; 6. To contribute to the sustainable development and to the achievement of the obligations within climate change issues; 7. To cooperate for the accomplishment of the objectives formulated within the framework of the EECCEL and the PNACC. Natural resources and biodiversity 8. To slow down erosion, desertification and soil loss, by preserving the functioning of the ecosystems and the natural hydrological cycle; 9. To preserve water quantity and quality of aquatic ecosystems in accordance to the Water and Biodiversity Conservation Framework Directive; 10. To preserve the ecodiversity by avoiding the artificial homogenization of the landscape; 11. To improve and restore the habitats and the communities of the local biodiversity, by reducing habitats fragmentation and by increasing connectivity among populations, with particular attention to endemic or vulnerable taxa, as well as the functionality of ecosystems; 12. To promote the territorial balance in land planning, by favouring a compact model for sprawling, by preserving spaces with relevant natural resources and biodiversity, and by considering macro- and micro-climate; 13. To plan and develop land uses in accordance to the conservation of natural spaces and ecological corridors; 14. To increase the efforts in the conservation and knowledge of glaciers of regional Pyrenees.

Name of the strategy/plan

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Residencial, commercial and institutional 15. To enhance the energy efficiency of buildings; 16. To improve citizens behaviour, both in daily habits and in the equipment of residences; 17. To integrate factors of energy efficiency and emissions (positioning of roads, residences...) with local microclimate in urban planning; 18. To restore consolidated, compact (proximity) and complex (multifunctional) urban space. Agriculture, livestock and forestry 19. To preserve the agricultural sector from the negative impacts of climate change; 20. To favour adaptation of agriculture; 21. To strengthen sustainable forest management in order to improve carbon absorption, to reduce erosion, to favour biodiversity conservation and the rational exploitation of resources. Water resources 22. To anticipate the response to the predictable reduction of water resources and the increased variability of Ebro, Tajo and Jucar river flows; 23. To reduce the impact of precipitation decrease and variability, in terms of the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events of drought and floods, by encouraging the use of natural techniques and the ecosystem restoration; 24. To improve the use of water by anticipating scenarios of scarcity; 25. To improve water resources management for agriculture, by means of advanced and efficient techniques of irrigation; 26. To preserve a good ecological level of rivers and wetlands within the framework of the Water Directive; 27. To promote water saving at all levels (agricultural, industrial, services, public administration, houses, etc); 28. To protect and improve aquatic ecosystems in order to assure a better adaptation, by ensuring water quality. Health 29. To study in depth the identification of health risks deriving from climate change, by taking into account the most sensitive population categories such as the elderly and children; 30. To reduce the impact of temperature extremes on population; 31. To reduce the vulnerability of population to climate change; 32. To make the public health service able to fight diseases that could spread as a consequence of climate change; 33. To obtain a water quality level for the entire population in order to avoid consequences and unacceptable risks for people and environment. Tourism 34. To diversify tourist offer by taking into account forecasts on climate change effects. Education, training and raising awareness 35. To improve knowledge, awareness and participation of the citizens and medias concerning climate change and clean energy, by including its effects and adaptation; 36. To change behavioural models of people, in order to favour the conservation of environment by means of a sustainable use of natural resources, their appropriate conservation and the improvement of efficiency; 37. To favour learning processes in order to better understand the interactions of climate change and the programmed measures; 38. To make available relevant, up-to-date and accessible information, on clean energy and climate change and the measures requested to face causes and consequences; 39. To strengthen and promote the development of projects aiming at education, formation and awareness on climate change issues; 40. To study social perception of citizens related to climate change in

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Structure

order to address programs and communication and awareness campaigns; 41. To promote coordination and synergies between resources, technicians and institutions involved in education, formation and raising awareness to climate change, and favouring the networks. Ten policy areas: sectors considered “pressure”, which are net emitters of GHGs, sectors affected by the impacts of climate change, areas that combine both features and, finally, a sector that can generate a favourable environment to address climate change: natural resources and biodiversity; energy; transports and mobility; residential, commercial and institutional; industry; agriculture, livestock, forestry and water resources; waste; health and climate change; tourism; education, training and raising awareness. Diagnosis Main objectives Action lines/recommended action (individual-corporate, local, autonomic level) Indicators for assessing the achievement of objectives and the development of action lines. KNOWLEDGE BASE

Current climate conditions

Climate scenarios

Annual average precipitation (1971-2000) Trend in annual total precipitation (1950-2002) Aridity index □ International □ National □ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions

-

GDP growth rate in real terms (2007-2008) Percentage of total GVA Occupational distribution by sector Occupational distribution of employment by sector by size of municipality and province Population pyramid for Aragon (1991-2008)

Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment

□ International X National X Regional Natural resources and biodiversity Change in land use in Aragon during the decade 1990-2000 (ha) Land use (artificial, agricultural, forest, wetlands and aquatic) Agriculture, livestock and forestry Distribution of land use in Aragon in 2005 Water resources Current demand for water resources Health Extreme temperature Air pollution (ozone) Risk of infectious and parasitic diseases Water shortage Tourism Percentage of GVA Jobs Tourist overnight Education, training and raising awareness Initiatives, programs and actions

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Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

Natural resources and biodiversity - Future decrease in river runoff Natural resources and biodiversity Residential, commercial and institutional Agriculture, livestock and forestry Water resources Health Tourism Education, training and raising awareness

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION â–Ą No

Stakeholder participation

X Yes

Stakeholder involved

Operators, administrations and public bodies, civil society

Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder

Citizen participation process, public information process, other (email)

Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Natural resources and biodiversity Individual and corporate level - Incentives to the role of civil society through grants, subsidies, training, as actors of mitigation and adaptation to climate change programs through conservation, sustainable use and recovery of functions and values of ecosystems that integrate natural resources and biodiversity; - Development of sustainable land use and water practices, in particular, and of natural resources and biodiversity in general; - Integration of hunting, fishing and farming companies in order to promote: the ecodiversity of the landscape, the maintenance of biodiversity, and alternative and complementary activities to conventional hunting and fishing. Local level - Promotion of urban planning policies which are not harmful for the conservation of landscape and biotic and abiotic resources; - Actions favouring the regeneration of urban areas and limiting the urban sprawl to compact and complex areas in environments socio-culturally bound. Promotion of sustainable land management towards a compact urban development model against the extensive urban, by limiting new towns and major tourist and residential infrastructure; - Development of programs aiming at the efficient water use. Autonomic level - Integration of legislation related to the management of protected areas into land use planning and management, as well as the obligation to preserve structural and functional landscape elements and natural systems that play key role in terms of adaptation and mitigation of climate change (rivers, streams, wetlands, hills, groundwater recharge and discharge, grasslands and forests).; - Integration to higher level regulations; - Inclusion of the potential effect of climate change on species as a criterion of prioritization when developing and implementing policy instruments aiming at the recovery of threatened species; - Creation of an ecological monitoring network related to the effects of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Aragon, with reference to more sensitive habitats and taxa and especially those integrated into protected areas and Natura 2000 Network; - Modulation of criteria related to the use of hunting and fishing species in the annual or multiannual plans. Communication and raising awareness - Information and communication with local population in order to get its involvement in the conservation of biodiversity against climate change; - Promotion of the association between territorial institutions in the fight against climate change; - Design and development of information campaigns, and awareness raising processes concerning the proliferation of exotic species, especially those invasive which will be likely favoured by climate change. Residential, commercial and institutional Individual and corporate level - Development of good practices in energy efficiency and saving, through technologies concerning lighting, air

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conditioning and insulation, household appliances, office automation, green purchasing, responsible consumption and waste. Local level - Use of trees and gardens as regulator elements of temperature conditions, by using species or indigenous varieties adapted to climate and local conditions; - Promotion of water saving and efficient use in distribution systems, houses, and institutions in urban centres in order to reduce local consumption and pollutant load discharge; - Considering the possibility of separating networks of grey water and rainwater in new facilities and urban development. Communication and raising awareness - Annual publication of municipal environmental accounts in order to describe the local urban metabolism and to investigate the alternatives; - Promotion of environmental training workshops for technicians (architects, engineers, builders, public administrators). Agriculture, livestock and forestry Individual and corporate level - Forecasts of change in crops and varieties, so that extensive agricultural activities are adapted to drier conditions; - Protection and recovery of agricultural soils affected by the expansion of desertification; - Awareness about increased drought and temperatures in order to project the most suitable varieties to new conditions; - Integration of measures to reduce pollution at farming level; - Promotion of an adaptive sylviculture in order to prevent plant diseases and adapt to climate change. Autonomic level - Forecasts of changes in crops and varieties, so that extensive agricultural activities are adapted to drier conditions; - Incentives to the relocation of autochthonous extensive livestock to more suitable areas; - Protection and recovery of agricultural soils affected by desertification; - Integration of measures to reduce pollution in land use and agricultural transformation planning; - Participation to national and international research programs related to the development of forest and crop varieties better adapted to climate change; - Improvement of knowledge and information about the health of forests; - Improvement of knowledge about the vulnerability of crops and livestock to disease deriving from climate change; - Studies and research concerning the functionality of vegetation as sink, including balances of carbon fixed by forests, grasses and woody crops; - Deepening scientific analysis on environmental and health impacts of OGMs in order to define potential applications of these organisms to new water stress scenarios; - Support advice to traditional agricultural practices to improve profitability and quality of life for managers; - Promoting sustainable forest management certification; - Institutional support and agro-environmental measures in adaptation and mitigation to climate change; Communication and raising awareness - Promotion of training and information for farmers in good agricultural practices: nitrogen balance, sustainable types of agriculture and social and environmental benefits they bring; - Information campaigns to companies on the alternatives available for the various activities and the environmental benefits associated. Water resources Individual and corporate level Use of more efficient irrigation systems; Promotion of water saving and efficient use of domestic and industrial water; Use of efficient technologies in production processes and domestic use; Reduction in demand for irrigation through modernization of irrigation systems and crop diversification. Local level - Development of specific adaptation plans for areas likely to be affected by increased irrigation needs; - Improvement in rural and/or urban water supply; - Use of purified water flows for irrigation agricultural plots. Autonomic level - Analysis of the risks that a decrease in flows could lead in the arid basins of the right side of the Ebro river in human activities, especially agriculture; - Promotion of water saving techniques; - Optimization in the use of water for irrigation; - Integration of wind and solar energy with reversible hydropower; - Accomplishment of the commitments of water resources regulation, that improve its management in scenarios of variability and seasonality of precipitation; - Promotion of economic research and studies reflecting the real value of water and the public policies. Communication and raising awareness

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- Elaboration of a communication plan according to the international organizations involved in water use efficiency; - Diffusion of new water technologies with exemplary actions in order to involve all citizens as consumers, as end users, as irrigators, as industrials. Health Individual and corporate level Reduction in the exposure to potential risks; Adoption of self-protection measures listed in preventive health campaigns; Adaptation and adequate management of houses and offices in order to avoid the effects of extreme temperature on population health. Local level - Elaboration of early warning systems in each city (based on its population pyramid, infrastructures, social network and hospital resources) allowing weather forecasts and provide information; - Distribution of the teleservice to the majority of older people living alone; - Elaboration of local census of persons and groups at risk as a consequence of extreme temperature and air pollution; - Local level study of morbidity and mortality related to extreme temperature, with a particular attention to hospital admissions due to climatic conditions; - Planning of urban space, by including areas functioning as heat islands: increase in wooded areas and gardens; - Monitoring of air quality and air pollution (including information on weather and pollen and spores) and warning to population in overcoming episodes. Autonomic level - Assessment of the effect of climate change on health, by taking into account projections of demographic structure, its vulnerability and the influence of other sectors, under different climate change scenarios; - Creation of monitoring and information systems on morbidity and mortality due to extreme temperature; - Elaboration and periodic evaluation of warning and prevention plans to extreme weather events; - Elaboration of monitoring and control programs, as well as epidemiological studies on diseases caused by air pollutants likely to increase; - Revision of the current parameters of water quality for human consumption; - Promotion and development of Surveillance and Control Programs of vector-borne diseases, with adequate funding and coordination with other monitoring programs at national level; - Strengthening of research and studies linking climate change and vector-transmitted diseases; - Promotion of multidisciplinary research teams, composed by professionals in veterinary medicine, epidemiology, entomology, zoology, medicine, etc; - Elaboration of an Environmental Health Plan for Aragon including health and climate change issues; - Development of studies of new agents linked to climate change. Communication and raising awareness - Training of health personnel, educators on issues related to climate change, environment and health, and in particular health personnel on new disease that may occur as a result of climate change; - Providing citizens of permanent information on measures to be adopted at individual level and on community resources available including a telephone of permanent attention; - Awareness of the population, especially children, and of health personnel about healthy habits; - Information to population and workers in their workplace about potential health risks related to extreme temperature and implementation of measures to mitigate its effects; - Explanation to population about the beneficial effects on health of the maintenance of certain temperatures, not abusing air conditioning nor heating, and its influence of energy saving and reduction of air pollution. Tourism Individual and corporate level - Preparation for changes, especially in the ski resorts, and diversification of the tourist offer, by improving its integration in the environment; - Increase in the protection against catastrophic episodes increasingly due to climate change; - Inclusion of ecological criteria in the recreational uses of water. Local level Implantation of alternative and sustainable uses consistent with conditions of natural resources. Autonomic level - Elaboration of a White Paper on tourism in Aragon, considering the problem of climate change in a transversal way; - Promotion of the diversification in tourism activities, both in winter and summer, in a climate change scenario; - Promotion of tourist infrastructures modification to address the consequences of climate change; - Support to the objectives of tourist destination management in the application of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures; - Promotion of specific programs on environment and climate change, especially in the areas of Natura 2000. Communication and raising awareness - Design of specific training and awareness programs for employers and tourist operators in relation to climate change and the need to implement sustainibility measures; - Elaboration of a strategy for disseminating the results of the sector, in terms of good practices on tourism and

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climate change, especially addressed to tourism industry; - Development of awareness campaigns for tourists in order to make their actions sustainable for the environment; - Inclusion of elements of information and exhibition in the interpretation centres of protected natural areas in relation to climate change effects. Education, training and raising awareness - Development and dissemination of information about the climate change, adapted to different social groups; - Promotion of information and communication technologies representing a real alternative to other methods of diffusion and communication more intensive in the use of materials and energy; - Public awareness campaigns on the effects of climate change and on behaviour that could help mitigate or adapt to change, in the short and medium term (5/10 years); - Elaboration of manuals on occupational activities in collaboration with professional organizations, trade union or employers; - Development of training programs on climate change for workers, managers and decision makers, both from government and businesses sector and from other organizations; - Promotion of training of teachers, educators and technicians on this issue, both in the content as in the most effective educational tools to overcome the barriers related to knowledge and to actions hindering the fight against climate change; - Inclusion of climate change issue in educational plans, elaboration and dissemination of didactic materials on climate change; - Promotion of the cooperation between research organizations, universities, administrations, associations and media for the dissemination of scientific studies, projections, reports, dissertations, etc., related to climate change; - Continuous update of list of organizations, individuals, campaigns, programs, materials, working or dealing with issues of climate change in Aragon and implementation of an appropriate dissemination; - Promotion of a better, faster, complete and easy exchange and dissemination of information on best practices for tackling climate change among governments, organizations, social groups and citizens in general; - Requirements of contribution and active participation of society in the formulation and implementation of activities to tackle climate change, in order to make them more relevant and effective to face the necessary social change to fight against climate change; - Social research studies and opinion polls showing the social perception, the mental representation and the attitudes and behaviours of the citizens face to climate change, so to serve as references for designing programs and activities tailored to objectives, content and methodologies, and evaluate the results of these actions; - Development of research and field studies in order to learn the collective perceptions on climate change and adjust campaigns if necessary. □ Knowledge base development Type of actions □ Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Natural resources and biodiversity Vulnerable species Variation in a given year: (1) number of grouse lek, (2) number of locations in Aragon with populations of Cypripedium calceolus, (3) number of localities in Aragon with populations of Rana pirenaica. Number of endemic animal and plants lost in a period of 10 years Number of exotic species for each given year Endangered species by biogeographic regions Land covered by a) Quercus petrea, b) Abies alba for a period of 10 years Habitats Variation of area covered by glaciers Variation of area occupied by beech and spruce in Aragon

□ Two years □ More

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Variation of wetlands area of Aragon maintaining its functionality Area affected by ecological restoration projects including climatic variable Area affected by erosion in a given year, calculated for an interval of 10 years with respect to the total area Increase in the artificial surfaces Variation of area at risk of desertification, according to each level (very high/high/medium/low) in a given year Residential, commercial and institucional Total final energy consumption in households Agriculture, livestock and forestry Percentage of crop area replaced by other varieties or species more resistant to aridity and climate change effects; Percentage of land affected by desertification recovered for agriculture and forestry purposes. Water resources Available water resources, according to the indicator AG-01 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Water reservoirs, according to the indicator AG-02 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Nitrate pollution in groundwater, according to the AG-05 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Biological quality of rivers, according to the AG-06 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Water consumption per capita, according to the AG-11 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Water withdrawal by sector, according to the AG-12 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Population connected to public water treatment system, according to the AG-16 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon; Irrigated area, according to the AR-05 Environmental Indicators System of Aragon. Health Mortality and hospital admissions for exposure to extreme temperature; Mortality and hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory diseases; Mortality and hospital admissions for infectious and parasitic diseases; Percentage of available supplies of safe drinking water; Presence of vector-borne diseases potentially related to climate change; Number of municipalities with urban waste water purification. Tourism Specific training actions on sustainability in the sector and number of beneficiaries. Education, formation and raising awareness - Evolution of knowledge level, importance and actions face to climate change from the results of studies and opinion polls; - Quotation marks of the reports to monitor the situation of climate change in Aragon in general, scientific, national and regional press; - Number of courses for employees in climate change; - Number of programs and/or thematic materials on climate change launched by various institutions of Aragon (government, corporations, unions, organizations, etc.).

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Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

2. Estrategia Canaria de Lucha contra el Cambio Climatico

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Canarias

Responsible body

Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climatico

Year of creation

2009

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes □ No

Timeline of actions Objectives

Structure

-

First objective: to present the mitigation Plan which constitutes one of the most relevant element of the Strategy and aims at the reduction of the GHGs emissions as well as the valorisation of carbon sink; Complementary objectives: definition of criteria for the elaboration of the Adaptation Plan, the design of measures in the fields of awareness, investigation, development and innovation (I+D+i) and the conditions of monitoring and review of the strategy. Three areas: - Mitigation; - Impacts and vulnerability analysis; - Adaptation strategy aiming at the reduction of the negative impacts of climate change. KNOWLEDGE BASE

Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International X National □ Regional Climate scenarios provided by the National meteorological agency (AEMet)

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

□ International X National □ Regional Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts in Spain. The analysis of possible impacts is difficult at the scale of the island.

-

Terrestrial ecosystems Aquatic ecosystems Marine ecosystems and fisheries Biodiversity (flora and fauna) Water resources Soil resources Forestry Agriculture Coastal environment Natural risk Energy Tourism Assurance Health

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STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION □ No

Stakeholder participation

X Yes

Stakeholder involved

Public administrations, social and environmental, business and citizenship

Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Education and awareness Education, formation - Autonomous training Plan - Courses for teachers - Educational programs - Incentives - Union and business formation - Professional Associations - Plan for family formation Information and awareness - Financial support - Web page - Awareness - Institutional support - Annual Award - Voluntary agreement - Dissemination programs - Seminars on climate change - Business information Climate - Improvement and elaboration of climatic data for the Canary Islands - Study on the state of knowledge in the Canary Islands, in order to make an inventory of programs, activities, studies, reports and research work carried out or being developed today in the fight against climate change, especially in fields of mitigation and/or adaptation, in addition to a study of other similar works being developed in the country or within the European Union. Impacts - Improvement of the study on impacts produced by the Ministry of Environment “Preliminary assessment of the climate change impacts in Spain” and of results of the Work Programme of the National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (PNACC); - Analysis of major adaptation options and their applicability in the Canary Islands, the time required for the implementation and the urgency of these actions. □ Mitigation/Adaptation Type of actions X Knowledge base development □ Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Mitigation measures Costs analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No Three actions: - Annual report on climate change in the Canary islands aiming at the information, awareness and comparison of the progress made in the Strategy; - Update each two years of the inventory of GHGs emissions in the

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-

Canary islands; Review each four years of the Strategy. It is not advisable to review more frequently the Strategy, since by their nature many of the mitigation and adaptation measures proposed are related to a specific period. A frequent revision of the Strategy would only create some confusion and even paralysis.

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Health - Increase in the morbidity associated to climate change in the Canary islands and to subtropical infectious diseases and to heatwaves. Education and awareness - level of public awareness on climate change issue The Adaptation Plan should be based on priorities in order to safeguard individuals lives and their key assets, to protect animal and plant biodiversity especially those endemic species in danger of extinction, to protect the cultural and social values, to protect economic activity and its development. It would be desirable to promote a debate, with the participation of all the political, economic and social stakeholders of the Canary islands, about how to better define this hierarchy of values. - The Adaptation Plan should be based on studies aiming at the definition of gradual and anticipatory solutions to the impacts. It is necessary to avoid maladaptation. Indeed, it is necessary to further investigate the study of impacts and also to assess the consequences of mitigation measures. - Definition of timeline of individual measures so as to ensure their consistency over time (criteria of survival in time of adaptation measures). Vulnerability and impact studies should be realised in order to allow the identification of major adaptation options and their applicability in the Canary islands, the time required for implementation and adoption of these actions..

Criteria for the elaboration of the Adaptation Plan

□ Two years □ More

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

3. Estrategia de accion frente al Cambio Climatico de Cantabria

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Cantabria

Responsible body

Consejeria de Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Cantabria

Year of creation

2009

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

Timeline of actions

2008-2012

Objectives

-

□ No

To anticipate the effects of climate change, so that appropriate decisions are taken before they occur. Two conditions: - to involve all the stakeholders by establishing the necessary way channels (see Stakeholder involvement and communication); - to manage the necessary tools for implementing this strategy and assess their compliance: - creation of the Interdepartmental Commission on climate change of Cantabria; - elaboration of annual GHGs emissions inventories;

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- development of GHGs emissions scenarios to 2012; - sinks inventory of the Community of Cantabria. Strategic axes of action that set the broad guidelines on which key actions are set out. The axes involve the measures and programs and propose new actions to be undertaken during the Strategy. - Sectoral actions: measures affecting the different sectors of society, such as industry, transportations, residential, services, waste, but also the specific sectors related to adaptation, such as water resources, health and tourism. - Cross-sectoral actions: actions involving various sectors together. - Exemplary actions: actions taken by the Administrations, so as to serve as examples to other sectors of society. Strategic axes: - Spatial management (7 measures) - Adaptation to climate change (35 measures) - Investigation, formation and awareness (56 measures)

Structure

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions

- Variation in the average temperature in Santander (1961-2007)

Climate scenarios

□ International X National X Regional - Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts in Spain (Ministry of Environment) - Study of the climate change impacts on the Spanish coast (Asociacion Espanola de Climatologia y Universidad de Cantabria, Serie A, n. 4, Santander) Global models, techniques for regionalization and emission scenarios: - Maximum and minimum temperature (end of the century) compared to average baseline of the period 1961-1990 - Evolution of the average value of precipitation (end of the century)

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment

□ International

X National

X Regional

Natural systems/Sectors

Natural resources - Biodiversity - Soil - Increase in the extreme weather events Socio-economic resources - Coastal zones - Health - Tourism - Water resources

Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts in Spain: - Areas potentially affected by sea level rise (1,5 m) Regional climate change scenarios in Cantabria. The effects that climate will have on natural and socio-economic resources will be then analysed. Technical report “Regional climate change scenarios in Cantabria” (University of Cantabria).

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

X Yes □ No Objective: to assess the awareness of society of climate change, as well as to know whether the proposals and measures of the Strategy against climate change could respond to their expectations on this

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issue. Stakeholder involved

Civil society, economic agents, academy and experts

Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder

-

Formation, in order to inform society on climate change at all levels, by considering also that the search for solutions could be an opportunity for the region. - Awareness raising, in order to promote consumption and production patterns coherent with the scenario of low CO2 emissions. - Participation, Three phases: - 1 phase. Realization of a future scenario - 2 phase. Social contrast of the actions of the Strategy - 3 phase. Participacion of the measures by themes

Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Spatial management - Approval of legislation including legal obligation to take into account climate variable in urban and territorial planning; - Inclusion in environmental assessment of land and urban planning the environmental variable, by taking into account soil, water cycle, biodiversity, natural heritage and rural environment, air quality, mobility, energy consumption and waste; - Promotion of criteria into the Land Management Plan that favour a concentrated urban model; - Restriction of construction in areas particularly vulnerable to climate change by taking into account the results of studies carried out in this field. Adaptation Water resources - Promotion of Water saving Plan in Cantabria by means of measures aiming at the reduction of water demand and consumption saving; - Development of a regional climate-hydrology model aiming at the elaboration of scenarios of the hydrologic cycle processes; - Collaboration in the estimation of the potential effects of climate change on water demand in Cantabria, by identifying autonomic measures for adaptation of demand and supply; - Monitoring of rainfall cycle and adaptation of water management in Cantabria. Health - Reduction of the impacts of heat waves on population through the Plan of preventive actions against the effects of high temperature on health; - Prevention of waterborne microbial disease by promoting the implementation of preventive health measures through the health monitoring Program concerning water for human consumption; - Monitoring the incidence of vector-borne diseases through the Vector-borne Disease Surveillance; - Prevention of disease transmission whose etiologic agents are favoured by the increase in temperature through the Health Surveillance Program of bathing areas, the Prevention Program of legionellosis and the official control of security food; - Information system development in public health for the monitoring of existing data on health in Cantabria; - Networking for pollen monitoring throughout the year; - Monitoring of the temporal variation of pollination events that can cause breathing problems in people; - Identification of specific needs to improve risk planning; - Elaboration of Civil Protection Special Plan concerning the risk of flooding. Tourism - Definition of indicators to predict variations in order to develop adequate planning for the future; - Analysis of changes for mountain tourism in order to perform, if needed, a reconversion. Infrastructure - Redefinition of design and structural parameters for ports under construction in order to prevent damages due to extreme weather events. Fisheries - Management and cleaning measures of shellfish production areas to cope with extreme weather events; - Adaptation measures against permanent/temporary stop of activities; - Adaptation measures in the coastal fishing fleet; - Socio-economic compensation for the adaptation of fishing fleet to the new conditions;

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Investment in aquaculture for aqua-environmental, productive, public health and/or animal health measures; Adaptation measures in the field of processing and marketing of fishery products; Development of collective actions to improve management, quality and/or productivity of fisheries; Measures of protection and development of aquatic fauna and flora; Pilot actions aiming at the accomplishment of the Common Fisheries Policy; Development of actions to promote sustainable development of fisheries areas; Development of new markets and promotional campaigns in the fishing industry when appearance/disappearance of aquatic species due to climate change would require it; - Aid for creation and development of microenterprises in the fishing sector. Cross-sectoral - Coordination of activities on adaptation to climate change in different sectors; - Development and monitoring of National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change; - Regular elaboration of regional climate scenarios for Cantabria following existing international methodologies; - Elaboration of risk maps under climate scenarios. Investigation, formation and awareness Investigation: sectoral - Development of studies concerning changes in distribution of certain non-native and indigenous species and their relation to climate change. - Creation of a Registry of the Management of agricultural land which includes at least: - Hectares of each surface; - Crop type; - Tillage techniques; - Techniques of application of fertilizers and irrigation. - Promotion of research on grazing aiming at the reduction of flammable biomass in wooded areas in order to prevent forest fires and disseminate the results through grazing management manuals, by specifying methods of management, necessary infrastructure and studies costs/efficiency of the different methodologies. - Development of strategies that allow farms to cope with extreme events, by considering aspects such as type of crop to develop or planning the purchase/sale of livestock, in order to minimize economic losses associated in the primary sector to such events. - Promotion of water uptake during period of surplus in farm exploitation, through strategically placed ponds according to the existing terrain for use during drought. - Development of studies on the effects of climate change in the fisheries, as the basis for taking decisions concerning the renovation of the fishing fleets. - Increase in the added value of agricultural and forestry products; - Study of population dynamics of two clam species of commercial interest in the Bay of Santander; - Study of population dynamics of barnacles in Cantabria; - Study of the regeneration needs of the beaches affected by the impacts of climate change, in order to maintain its tourist attraction; - Study of the most relevant tourist areas of Cantabria and analysis of its vulnerability, in order to modify tourism supply towards less vulnerable resources; - In the existing ports, analysis of policy needs in infrastructure protection as a result of extreme weather events. Investigation: cross-sectoral - Promotion of collaboration between research organisations and Administrations on climate change issue; - Development of studies on future water availability and demand, with the aim to plan the management; - Realization of a technical and cartographic study on flooding risk in Cantabria; - Improvement of the knowledge concerning the frequency and extent of extreme events in Cantabria, in order to allow to define policies related to the reduction of the resulting impacts. Investigation: sectoral - Promotion of the Strategy for Environmental Education. - Training of teachers on climate change issue by promoting the Regional Training Plan. - Development of informative and educational documents on climate change through the Sustainable Centres Network (RECESO); - Development of new tools for teachers in order to enhance the integration of themes arising from climate change in the curriculum of students; - Development of the concept: “You do, you count”, addressed to schools and concerning climate change; - Coordination of the different types of subsidies by developing a “Guide of aids for the promotion of sustainable residential buildings in Cantabria”. Investigation: corss-sectoral - Elaboration of a public procurement strategy based on sustainability criteria and the fight against climate change at autonomic and municipal level. - Strengthening of inter-institutional relations (including ministries, local governments, communities, rural development associations) for the development of training in climate change. - Promotion of exchange and dissemination of information on climate change among governments, organizations,

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social groups and citizens. Formation: exemplary - Design and delivery of training courses for municipal technicians on climate change and its implications for the management of the territory. Awareness: cross-sectoral - Communication to the population of the daily optimum temperature for the heating systems based on weather conditions; - Elaboration of a periodic report on the state of climate change in Cantabria and subsequent dissemination; - Development of a website on climate change with the aim of bringing together and coordinating all activities concerning the fight against climate change. It will provide information on acitivities of the Government on climate change, financial assistanceEn ella se ofrecerá información sobre actividades del Gobierno Cántabro en materia de cambio climático, ayudas económicas y subvenciones, promotion of car sharing, etc. - Promotion of environmental education through online courses. X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

X Yearly □ Two years □ More (3 years) Monitoring system aiming at the annual assessment of the degree of progress each year for the accomplishment of the objectives in each strategic axes. For an adequate monitoring of the strategy, the Interdepartmental Commission on Climate Change will meet every six months. Each year the Departments of the Government involved in the Strategy will prepare a report detailing the progress of measures as well as the reasons. Starting from the sectoral information provided by the different Departments and presented during the meeting of the Commission, the annual inventories of emissions of GHGs of Cantabria and the results of the monitoring system of the Strategy, the General Direction of Environment will carried out an annual report that will elaborate the degree of compliance of the Strategy. These reports will be presented and analyzed by the Interdepartmental Commission on Climate Change, that will determine the actions to be implemented on the basis of the results performed. X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Spatial management - N of urban plans including the environmental dimension. Adaptation - N of actions carried out/to be carried out Investigation, formation and awareness raising - N of studies carried out/to be carried out - N of formation and awareness raising campaign carried out in the field of climate change - N of municipalities with plans or programs in the field of climate change - N of environmental agents that have been trained on climate change

Monitoring tools

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Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

4. Estrategia de cambio climatico para Extremadura

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Extremadura

Responsible body

Junta de Extremadura, Consejeria de Industria, Energia y Medio Ambiente

Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes □ No

Timeline of actions

2009-2012

Objectives

-

To set the emissions of GHGs, by contributing to the national compliance of the Kyoto commitments in proportion to the situation in the region; To ensure that actions and projects that are launched in Extremadura include climate change as an essential factor; To develop and implement tools to manage CO2 in the Region; To make an continuous monitoring of the climate change variables, thus ensuring the evaluation and implementation of the Strategy; To pave the way to adapt to climate change, so that our society and our economy are prepared to tackle the expected and unavoidable impacts; To be a pioneer Region in the development of solutions; To face global environmental degradation; To place the Administration as an exemplary officer and promoter at all times of actions against climate change. - Principle of sustainable development; - Principle of responsibility; - Principle of prevention; - Principle of innovation; - Principle of governance; - Principle of diffusion.

Structure

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved

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Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Preparation and adaptation - To develop a map of climate change impacts in Extremadura; - To develop an action Plan for climate change adaptation. Formation and knowldege - To promote training on climate change in all sectors of society. Awareness - To develop awareness campaigns on climate change in all the sectors of society. X Knowledge base development Type of actions □ Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Promotion of efficient water use - Average consumption of water in houses (litre/capita/day); - Water distributed by sectors (%); - Distribution losses (%); - Sewage treatment (%); - Desalination of brackish water (m3/day of desalted water); - Irrigated area (sup. irrigation/sup. agr. total). Integrating climate change in the evaluation of Plans, Programs and Projects - Plans, programs and projects that integrate the effect of climate change in the impact assessment ; - Incentives for businesses considering climate change; - Business expenditure for environmental protection. Implementation of Land use Plan - Area affected by soil erosion (%); - Area at risk of desertification (%); - Urban pressure on the territory (inhabitants/km2). Development of an action Plan for climate change adaptation - Measures in the various systems and sectors considering adaptation to climate change. Development of training on climate change in all sectors of society - Environmental education and awareness campaigns (Euros). Contribution to the development of innovative approaches, technologies, methods and tools Promotion of the implementation of the European environmental policy - Number of municipalities with local adaptation plans. Development of awareness campaigns on climate change in all the sectors of society - Budget of the Government for the development of information and awareness campaigns.

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□ Two years □ More


Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION

Country/Region/Municipality

5. Estrategia de la Region de Murcia frente al cambio climatico 20082012 (ERMCC) Spain/Region of Murcia

Responsible body

Region of Murcia

Year of creation

2008

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes □ No National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change 2008-2012

Name of the strategy/plan

Timeline of actions Objectives

Structure

-

To reduce emissions of GHGs; To understand the impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of human and natural systems of the Region; To promote adaptation in order to minimize the impacts of climate change and take advantage of opportunities. The list of general measures of this Strategy consist of 125 measures, subdivided in 5 policy areas that consist of 45 lines in which it will be realized. Areas of actions: 1. Mitigation; 2. Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; 3. Information, training and dissemination; 4. Research, development and innovation; 5. Horizontal measures. KNOWLEDGE BASE

Current climate conditions

Climate scenarios

Plans and programs

Current socio-economic conditions

- Mean annual temperature (1971-2006); - Mean annual precipitation (1961-2007); - Homoclimatic areas. X International □ National X Regional - Seasonal Tmax in Murcia (2040-2069); - Annual Tmax in Spain (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100); - Seasonal precipitation in Murcia (2040-2069); - % variation in precipitation in Spain (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 20712100); - Sea level rise (global); - Tmax variation in Spain (trend to 2100); - Tmin variation in Spain (trend to 2100); - Precipitation variation in Spain (trend to 2100); - Tmax variation in Murcia (trend to 2100); - Tmin variation in Murcia (trend to 2100); - Precipitation variation in Murcia (trend to 2100). Guidelines and territorial coordination Plans - Environment and land management - Energy - Water - Transports - Agriculture - Science and innovation - Waste - Industry - Tourism - Gross domestic product at market prices and their components (2006); - Sectoral distribution of employed population; - Total crop area;

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- Participation of the agriculture of Murcia in the Spanish economy; - Crop area by Autonomous Community; - Crop area by crop type (2007); - Distribution of the fishing fleet by ports and fishing methods (2004); - Value of aquaculture and fisheries; - Livestock in Spain and Murcia (2004); - Tourist potential of municipalities by number of workers (workers/km2); - Evolution of the hotel occupancy rate (2005); - Transports; - % of employees in each industrial area; - Ratio of industrial sector (2002); - Bulding sector potential by number of workers in the municipalities (workers/km2). Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment

X International X National □ Regional - European Environment Agency – Impacts of Europe’s changing climate. An indicator based-assessment. EEA Report N. 2/2004. - Spanish Office for climate change and University of Castilla La Mancha - Principales Conclusiones de la Evaluacion Preliminar de los Impactos en Espana por efecto del Cambio Climatico. - Preliminary diagnosis of DGC - Informe de seguimiento del Plan Nacional de Adaptacion, marzo 2008. Indicators - Mortality associated to recent heat waves.

Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

White Paper on water for the National Hydrologic Plan

Indicators - Runoff scenario. Ecosystems and biodiversity; Forests; Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries; Water resources; Energy, tourism and assurance; Coastal zones; Soil; Natural risk; Human health. Areas of special interest: the coast; basic system of protected coastal areas; integrated management of coastal zones; water.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION □ No

Stakeholder participation

X Yes

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder

Administrations and public institutions, major social, economic and scientific-technical groups, citizenship -

Methods used to involve stakeholder

-

Phase of the involvement

Elaboration and execution phase ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Area of action: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Water resources Assessment of the potential effects of climate change on water demand in agriculture, tourism and supplying of inhabited areas, as well as on its quality in the Region; Assessment of the effect of climate change in the ecological status of water bodies (rivers, lakes, lagoons, etc) by applying the scheme of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Spain, and by identifying the most sensitive indicators and the sanitary conditions of water bodies. Biodiversity Assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of habitats and key taxa of the Murcia Region, by elaborating a map of the most vulnerable areas in the Region; Identification of a biological indicator system of the impacts of climate change, and definition of action protocols; Assessment of the effects of climate change on invasive species in the Region.

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Coastal zones, fisheries and marine ecosystems: Study of carbon fluxes in coastal waters and in the lagoon of the Menor Sea in order to evaluate the role as carbon sinks; Assessment of sea level rise on coastal urban centres, as a function of the different climate scenarios: study concerning abandonment or regression strategies, or protection, against different scenarios of sea level rise; study concerning possible actions favouring the protection of beaches and dunes; Assessment of the impacts of climate change on marine species of interest to commercial fisheries in the Region and on marine protected areas in different climate change scenarios; Assessment of the impacts of climate change on marine invasive species on the coasts, and appropriate measures in order to control the agents (renewal of fishing gear, cleaning of vessels, etc.); Development of a monitoring network of climate change in the marine seagrass in the Region of Murcia. Human health: Assessment of the impacts of climate change on health, taking into account the projections of the demographic structure in the Region and the influence of other sectors; Development of plans of action for public health based on early warning systems that enable the identification of hazardous situation before they occur; Development of specific surveillance and control programs on vector-borne diseases. Forestry: Identification of an indicator system for forests and development of a monitoring and early warning system. Agriculture: Analysis of water and energy consumption and for other resources in the current crop systems, in relation to climate change; Assessment of phenological changes in the plants species of the Region; Risk assessment for various parasites, as well as changes in distribution due to the influence of climate. Mountainous areas: Study concerning changes in the altitudinal distribution of plant communities of the mountain in the Region. Soil: Assessment of the effects of reforestation of marginal lands and the practice of an agriculture oriented to soil conservation, on the increase of the organic content and the improvement of soil fertility. Urbanism and building: Assessment of new needs of species and plant varieties for parks and gardens. Area of action: Information, training and dissemination Awareness, dissemination and education: Establishment of a coordinated communication strategy between the different municipalities and departments; Awareness campaigns through the media, workshop, internet and publications on energy, water, natural resources and public health; Creation of a network of environmental consultants working by assessing, on a voluntary basis, citizen’s consumption of energy, goods and waste, etc Area of action: Research, development and innovation Promotion of research on Climate Change Collaboration and participation to national projects within the framework of the Seventh R&D Program of the European Union and the National Plan for R&D; Development and financing of projects on adaptation to climate change and meteorology, hydrology and climatology; Identification of potential use of compost deriving from sewage sludge, municipal solid waste, and agricultural waste and livestock, for its use in the prevention of erosion, soil improvement and recovery of degraded areas; Develop research programs on public health risk caused by climate change: risks related to pollen distribution, and respiratory diseases associated; risks due to the change of vectors for the disease transmission; risks arising from excessive temperature and their effects on health; Develop a system of inventory and monitoring of soil and its use, from the point of view of the carbon cycle; Development of agreements with universities to create a postgraduate Master on climate change; Create a research line on the economic of climate change in the Region of Murcia; Development and financing of research projects allowing the collection of long time series for climatic indicators and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems, at high resolution (century and decades). Area of action: horizontal measures Climate criteria in urban planning Promotion of the Mediterranean compact and multifunctional urban model, by promoting rational management of the soil and avoiding the proliferation of discontinuous urban fabric;

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-

Planning the urbanization of new areas by assuring the compatibility with the Sites of geological interest, wetlands (Regional inventory of wetlands) or Habitat of Community Interest, by favouring the connectivity of natural spaces; Development of climatic criteria in building design, in order to minimize the use of artificial airconditioning technologies, by improving the energy efficiency; Implementation of new criteria in urban planning that model temperature, humidity, radiation and ventilation, by creating streets and places with better with weather conditions. Creation of new green areas and adapted to existing vegetation of the Region of Murcia, with high storage capacity of CO2 and low water consumption; Establish databases related to the city, by generating models including data on humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc; and creating databases concerning the consumption of water, resources and emissions that occur during the construction of buildings X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction X Strengthening the adaptive capacity X Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW

Monitoring mechanisms

Sustainable development and land management Department, through the Autonomous Secretariat for Sustainability X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

X Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Performance indicators and indicators of results Monitoring indicators of measures of impact, vulnerability and adaptation: Water resources Number of studies carried out on water demand in each sector (Agriculture, Tourism, etc.); Number of studies in this area; Number of projects on identification of the most sensitive indicators. Biodiversity Number of studies on vulnerability of habitat and key taxa; Number of projects carried out on the biological indicator systems related to the impacts of climate change. Coastal areas, fisheries and marine ecosystems Number of studies carried out on the potential carbon sink effect of the Menor Sea; Number of studies on the effect of the sea level rise; Number of studies on the effects of climate change on marine invasive species; Number of projects on the effects of climate change on seagrass beds. Human health Number of studies related to the effects of climate change on health; Number of projects including plans of action based on early warning systems; Number of programs of specific monitoring and control of vector-transmission disease. Forestry Number of forest indicator systems on climate change; Numbero of surveillance systems. Agriculture Number of research projects on parasites. Mountain area Number of studies on the altitudinal distribution of plant

Implementation

□ Two years □ More

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species. Soil Number of studies on the effects of reforestation of marginal lands and the practice of an agriculture addressed to the soil conservation. Urban planning and construction Number of studies on the species and plant varieties required for parks and gardens. Indicators of monitoring of measures of information, training and dissemination Awareness, dissemination and education Number of campaigns through communication media, days, internet and publications; Number of formation programs in transports companies; Number of taught programs on efficient driving; Number of campaigns on transports, efficient driving; Number of participating students to courses on renewable energy and resources saving. Indicators of monitoring measures of research, development and innovation Investigation Number of project carried out; Number of funded adaptation projects on meteorology and hydrology; Programs developed on the use of compost to prevent soil erosion, to improve soil and restore degraded areas; Number of programs carried out on respiratory disease; Number of programs carried out on vector-borne disease; Number of programs carried out on diseases due to high temperature; Number of projects carried out on the inventory system and the monitoring of soils from the point of view of the carbon cycle; Number of Masters realized on climate change; Number of students involved; Number of projects carried out on the economic impact of climate change. Indicators of monitoring of horizontal measures Urban planning Number of urban projects including the Mediterranean urban model; Number of urban projects including the compatibility with natural elements; Number of buildings that have incorporated the climatic criteria; New approaches to urban planning that model temperature, humidity, radiation and ventilation; Green area created with crops of the Region; Number of databases of the cities generating models that include humidity, wind speed and temperature.

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

6. Estrategia Valenciana ante el cambio climatico 2008-2012

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Comunitat valenciana

Responsible body

Department for Environment, Water, Urban planning and Housing

Year of creation Type of approach

â–Ą Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

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□ No

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

Timeline of actions

2008-2012

Objectives

-

To contribute to the commitment taken by Spain in the context of the Kyoto Protocol; - To increase the knowledge and awareness in the field of sustainable development, clean energy and climate change; - To contribute to increase the involvement of all social and economic agents in the existing environmental problems, in sustainable development and in the action of the Council for the mitigation and adaptation to climate change; - To work with local governments in designing and developing their own strategies on climate change; - To promote research, development and innovation in the field of climate change and clean energy; - To contribute to the sustainable development by promoting the development of clean energy, especially the renewable character, the implantation of new environmental technologies, the rational use of energy and resources saving in the field both in business and final consumer level; - To optimize and improve networks and inventory of GHGs, by keeping these constantly updated; - To anticipate and design the necessary measures to plan for future adaptation to climate change. Diagnosis Analysis of the evolution of GHGs emissions in the Region; Study of existing measures with an impact on GHGs emissions. Identification of critical parameters Objectives and goals To limit the emissions per capita to 8,5 tCO2 during the period 20082012; Failure to deliver 7,9 million tonnes per year CO2 equivalent. Action Program Measures of mitigation; Measures of adaptation; Monitoring and correction Program Establishment of indicators to assess the effectiveness of the measures implemented; Methodology of action to correct unwanted actions. Revision of the Plan Periodic revision of actions.

Structure

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

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Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS 1.

Monitoring and cooperation of the development of the National Plan of Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), and of initiatives and conclusions issued by the IPCC with the aim of integrating climate change adaptation in the planning and management of socio-economic sectors and ecological systems of the Region; 2. Cooperation and monitoring of the activity for the elaboration of regional scenarios provided in the PNACC; 3. Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Region; 4. Appraisal of potential effects of climate change on supply and demand of water resources in the Region, by identifying measures that adjust to available resources that don’t compromise the welfare and the future economic development; 5. To identify habitats and taxa of the Region most vulnerable to climate change by estimating their adaptive capacity during XXI century and by identifying potential measures for the conservation that reduce the impacts; 6. To identify coastal areas and elements of the Region most vulnerable due to the effects of climate change during XXI century, to assess the environmental value and the economic impacts, especially in tourism. To identify and evaluate measures of adaptation; 7. To identify the major impacts on agriculture, livestock and fisheries, and the possibilities of their adaptation; 8. To assess the effects of climate change on public health, such as the increase of heat waves, the occurrence of health problems related to warmer climate or the consequences due to famine or degradation of available water resources. Implementation of warming and prevention systems in order to minimize the effects; 9. To analyse the existing needs of training on climate change adaptation and to organise training actions aimed at the technical and key productive sectors; 10. To include climate change in the environmental assessment documents of territorial and urban planning, by determining the impact of decisions on factors involved in its evolution, as a function of the expected scenario. X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication X Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly □ Two years □ More Useful indicators for a periodic evaluation in some cases, and continue in others, in both the enforcement of the measures, and actions for implementing these, as well as their effectiveness. X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Adaptation - Volume of treated water; - Volume of water from external inputs: water transfer and desalination; - Budget for the prevention of climate change impacts on public health. Dissemination and awareness: public awareness and cooperation - Budget for the development of information and awareness campaigns.

Monitoring tools

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION

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Name of the strategy/plan

7. Pacto Regional contra el Cambio Climatico

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Castilla La Mancha

Responsible body

Comunidad Autonoma de Castilla-La Mancha Consejeria de industria, Energia y Medio Ambiente. Oficina de Cambio Climatico de Castilla-La Mancha

Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

□ No

Timeline of actions -

To assume our responsibilities and act within the framework of the fight against climate change; To promote a wide participation.

Objectives

Structure KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS -

-

-

Planning: promotion of adaptation and mitigation actions, by including climate change issues in the elaboration of strategies, plans, programs and projects, by paying particular attention to sustainable urban planning, housing and productive processes that use natural resources, by preserving and promoting carbon sinks, given the important role of forests and agricultural crops. Agriculture and livestock: encouragement, establishment and development of farming and agricultural techniques that favour the adaptation to new conditions caused by climate change. Research and innovation: enhancement and development of research and eco-innovation to reduce the impacts of climate change and promote the capacity of our forests to absorb while preserving their biodiversity, as well as the development of technologies for mitigation and adaptation and the promotion of economic activities generating employment and equal opportunities. Ethic and responsible consumption: promotion of ethic, responsible and sustainable consumption, by taking into account the ecological footprint. Raising awareness and education: participation and development of programs of raising awareness by means of training courses, communication and awareness on climate change, sustainable development and energy saving. Participation: active cooperation in the elaboration, development and implementation of strategies, plans and programs on climate change carried out in the region, particularly the Regional Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy, as well as promotion of the participation to the Covenant, the dissemination of it and participation to meetings, conferences, forums or platforms aiming at the enhancement of the exchange of experience.

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□ Knowledge base development X Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities

Type of actions

Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation

A Regional Council on Climate will be created (CRC).

Monitoring mechanisms

□ Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly □ Two years □ More

Monitoring tools

□ Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

8. Plan andaluz de adaptacion al cambio climatico

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Andalusia

Responsible body

Junta de Andalucía

Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

Timeline of actions

2007 - 2012

Objectives

- Identification of immediate actions aiming at the protection of resources; - Development of sectoral adaptation actions, based on the diagnosis and evaluation of the impact on each sector; - Development and improvement of the strategic knowledge base concerning the potential impacts of climate change in Andalusia; - Promotion of concerted actions of the administrations of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia; - Promotion of training and participation on adaptation to climate change. Five programs: 52. Measures of immediate actions; 53. Sectoral analysis of impacts; 54. Sectoral measures of adaptation; 55. Improvement of the knowledge (I+D+i); 56. Governance.

Structure

□ No

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International □ National X Regional Indicators - Tmax in Andalusia (2011-2020; 2041-2050; 2091-2100) - Tmin - Annual average precipitation in Andalusia (2011-2040)

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios

Projections of scenarios related to the economic and population growth

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Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment

Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment

Natural systems/Sectors

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Characterization of the sector -> Analysis of vulnerability and risks > Analysis of impacts -> Measures of adaptation Agriculture Classification of risk (olive grove, vineyards, rice, orchards) Tourism Water resources vulnerability of coastal tourist areas Health - N of days during which T > 37,5 °C in july 2050 Forests Vulnerability of Q. Ilex. in 2050 Land and urban management Transports Insurance Indicators - Drought and desertification indexes - Fire risk index - Phytoclimatic index Agriculture Tourism Energy Flooding Water resources Soil Health Forests and fire Biodiversity Land and urban management Transports Insurance

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION □ Yes

Stakeholder participation

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Measures of immediate actions Water resources Water saving and efficiency Management of drought processes Energy Energy saving and efficiency Development of renewable energy Mobility Sustainible mobility Urban management models Soil Fight against erosion and desertification Forests and biodiversity Conservation and restoration of carbon sinks Conservation of biodiversity Health - Monitoring system Improvement of the knowledge (I+D+i) Climate change impact assessment

- 88 -


Analysis of the impact of specific management practices Monitoring and early warning (indicators) Modelization of processes (scenarios) Development of technologies for the adaptation to climate change Socio-economic assessment of adaptation options Governance Planning and programming of cross-sectoral policies Raising awareness and social participation X Knowledge base development Type of actions □ Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

□ Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly □ Two years □ More

Monitoring tools

□ Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION

Country/Region/Municipality

9. Plan de accion del Gobierno de Aragon frente al cambio climatico y de energias limpias Spain/Aragon

Responsible body

Government of Aragon, Department of Environment

Year of creation

2009

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes □ No

Timeline of actions

2008-2012

Objectives

-

Name of the strategy/plan

Structure

To develop a better understanding of future impacts of climate change on various economic sectors, natural resources and biodiversity; To integrate adaptation into sectoral planning in order to reduce the vulnerability of sectors, by promoting their conservation in a changing scenario; To increase the level of knowledge and awareness of citizens about the problem of climate change, by promoting more suitable models of behaviour and by providing up-to-date and relevant information on climate change. Six programs, each with specific targets. 151 measures: 108 of mitigation, 17 of adaptation and 26 with a double nature. Such a structure allowed the identification of different types of measures depending on the nature of their contribution to the objectives of the EACCEL. In some cases other actions already planned by the various Departments of the Government of Aragon before the adoption of this plan and within the period 2008-2012, have been added. Programs addressed to mitigation: Program for Clean energy production; Program Less emissions and more absorption of greenhouse gases; Program Less energy consumption, demand management;

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Programs addressed to raising awareness and knowledge about the causes and consequences of climate change: Program Observation, science and knowledge; Program Citizens and public administrations; Program for the adaptation of the economic sectors or the management of the impacts of climate change on natural resources: Program Adaptation of infrastructure and media. KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

-

Natural resources and biodiversity Energy Residential, commercial and institutional Agriculture, livestock, forestry Water resources Health Tourism Education, training and raising awareness

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS 151 measures in total, 17 addressed to favour adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change and 26 with a double nature (mitigation and adaptation). Program Less emissions and more absorption of greenhouse gases: Development of investments for environmental restoration of areas degraded by mining; Forestry conservation Plan for Montes en Cinco Villas; Action in areas vulnerable to pollution by nitrates from agricultural sources; Promotion of organic farming; Subsidies for the improvement of knowledge in agriculture, food and forestry; Prevention from forest fires; Reforestation and conservation of forest cover. Fight against desertification. Inclusion of climate change on sylvicultural treatment. Program Less energy consumption, demand management Prioritization of aid to investments in food industries based on criteria of energy and water saving, GHGs emissions reduction or processing raw materials into bioenergy; Economic aid for the investments in water consumption and improvement of energy efficiency in agriculture. Program Observation, science and knowledge Identification of the more vulnerable elements of biodiversity in Aragon; Program Birds and Climate; Introduction of the variable of climate change in the monitoring programs of exotic species;

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Introduction of the variable of climate change in the monitoring programs of threatened species and habitats; Study of the dynamics of glaciers in the Pyrenees of the region; Monitoring system of air quality and warning system to the population in case of threshold exceedance; Projection of future climate scenarios; Basic system for climatic information in Aragon (SICLIMA); Organizational instruments for climate change. Program Citizens and public administrations Development of specific contents on climate change on the website of the Government of Aragon; Conferences on responsible consumption; Campaign “For a responsible consumption”; Web responsible consumption; Edition of a Manual of responsible consumption within the Agreement with the Local Organizations of Aragon; School competition on consumer education in Aragon; Guide for a responsible consumption; Diffusion of responsible habits for water saving; Quality of life Course; Exhibition and photography competition; Consumer classrooms; Promotion and participation to mitigation and adaptation projects through institutional channels. Program Adaptation of infrastructure and media Special Plan for wastewater purification; Water Plan; Inclusion of guidance on climate change in the irrigation office; Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector through the modernization of irrigation; Elaboration of studies on Mediterranean forestry, prevention of plant diseases and climate change adaptation; Promotion to the cultivation of better adapted plant to climate change; Plan of action for the prevention of the effects of extreme temperature on health in Aragon. X Mitigation/Adaptation Type of actions X Knowledge base development X Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Indicators of mitigation

□ Two years □ More

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

10. Plan de accion por el clima de Navarra – Meadidas de adaptacion

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Navarra

Responsible body Year of creation Type of approach

X Adaptation □ Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

□ Yes □ No

Timeline of actions Objectives

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34 adaptation measures with observations, type and source

Structure

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

□ International

□ National

□ Regional

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS - Development of activities aiming at the improvement of knowledge on: impacts of climate change on ecosystems and animal and plant species. Priority will be given to species that due to their location, sensitivity or conservation status are at high risk; to ecosystems and species that due to their location, sensitivity or conservation status are most vulnerable, and assessing their potential as indicators of climate change impacts, methodologies for a correct assessment of the impact of climate change on biodiversity and in goods and services provided by ecosystems. - Evaluation of existing networks of protected natural areas (including Natura 2000) in the various climate scenarios: environmental connectivity, latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, “reserve areas” designed to reduce the impact of climate change. - Consolidation of the environmental monitoring networks and establishment of long-term monitoring programs in relation to: identification of biological indicators and definition of measurement protocols for an early warning system; systems dominated by pioneer and colonizing species; migratory and reproductive phenology of species considered indicators; introduction and diffusion of alien invasive species, status of water and aquatic ecosystems of Navarra in relation to climate change. - Development and establishment of guidance on: management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems, in order to incorporate climate change as a variable in the process of environmental restoration; planning and management of protected areas; promotion of the ecosystem approach in forest management and conservation. - Promotion of the greatest genetic variability in ecosystems as the basis of adaptive capacity to climate change. - Development and evaluation of indicator systems of activity and microbial biodiversity in soil (as well as the development of quality and soil fertility) and control and monitoring of soil losses due to erosion; identification systems of biological indicators of impacts of climate change and definition of protocols for monitoring and early warning. - Definition of habitats of key species at different time scales; comparative study on change in population through the repetition of specific studies; development of habitat models in order to define future scenarios. - Evaluation of carbon budgets for different types of ecosystems of Navarra. - Evaluation of activities to enhance carbon sinks and their impact on biodiversity (positive or negative) on biodiversity. - Development of regional climate-hydrology models that can produce reliable scenarios concerning the hydrological cycle, including extreme events. - Development of models for the ecological quality of water bodies, consistent with the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). - Application of hydrological scenarios generated for the XXI century to other sectors highly dependent on water resources (energy, agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.). - Identification of the most sensitive indicators of climate change within the framework of the implementation of the WFD.

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- Evaluation of the possibilities of the water management system under hydrological scenarios generated for the XXI century. - Improvement of the efficiency in water use, by planning new water resources (such as treated wastewater or desalinated seawater) and changing the allocation of water. - Promotion of awareness campaigns to the public in order to achieve a more sustainable water consumption. - Development of guidelines and evaluation techniques and models for implementing an adaptive forest management to climate change: techniques, monitoring of shifts, selection of seed sources in the repopulation, etc. - Accurate assessment of ground and air biomass of species and forest system of Navarra. - Development and application of forest growth models under different climate change scenarios. - Identification of a system of forest indicators for climate change and development of a monitoring and early warning system. - Map of changes due to different climate change scenarios in agro-climatic areas of Navarra. - Development of models simulating the behaviour of different pathogens in response to climate, the ability to adapt to the biotope and the seasonal dynamic of the different processes. - Evaluation of the irrigation demand in response to various climate scenarios. - Risk mapping for the various parasites, as well as distribution changes due to the influence of climate. - Planting of new plant species and more tolerant crops to changing climate conditions. - Promotion of fire extinction practices as a consequence of the increase in the fire risk due to temperature increase. - Control of parasites that may arise as a consequence of climate change. - Integration of sectoral assessment in mountainous areas: mapping climate change impacts in the major mountain systems in Navarra. - Development of a monitoring network of climate change in the mountain. - Mapping of the areas most vulnerable to desertification due to climatic factors in future scenarios. - Modelling of erosion under different climate change scenarios. - Monitoring of degraded land and with ongoing desertification processes through the monitoring of erosion and the evolution of organic carbon in soils. - Establishment of a framework for decision making, which allows the combination of adaptation measures, the conservation of biodiversity and the social and economic benefits derived from natural resource management. - Enhancement of actions aiming at the ecosystems restoration and conservation with a particular attention to those considered vulnerable, as well as the establishment of buffer zones and corridors to facilitate migration of species. □ Mitigation/Adaptation Type of actions X Knowledge base development X Vulnerability reduction X Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Costs analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

□ Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

□ Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other

□ Two years □ More

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan

11. Plan Vasco de Lucha contra el Cambio Climatico (PVLCC)

Country/Region/Municipality

Spain/Pais Vascos

Responsible body Year of creation

Basque Office for Climate Change-Department of environment and Spatial Planning of the Basque Government 2008

Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

□ No

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Timeline of actions

2008-2012

Objectives

Four strategic objectives: - to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases; - to increase the absorption capacity of carbon sinks; - to minimize the risks to natural resources: - to identify and predict the effects by means of the improvement of scientific knowledge; - to strengthen control and monitoring in order to enable the assessment of vulnerability and risks; - to prevent the effects through concrete actions of protection or recovery and the effective management of natural resources; - to minimize health risks for people, quality of urban habitat and socio-economic systems. 120 measurable and concrete actions divided into 4 programs and 14 types of action. Each program is structured in lines of action that will enable and facilitate the monitoring of the plan and its integration into sectoral policies. - Program 1: production and consumption with a minor use of carbon and cleaner energy, and management of sinks. Action lines: - energy saving and efficiency; - promotion of renewable energies; - reduction of non-energy GHGs emissions; - management of carbon sinks. - Program 2: adaptation to climate change in order to preserve natural ecosystems, to protect human health and to prepare infrastructure and socio-economic systems. Action lines: - systematic observation and learning; - concerted action to define criteria and plan; - adequacy and availability of facilities and infrastructure. - Program 3: observation of nature, in order to learn about the problems and create solutions. Action lines: basic research and cooperation; applied research; cross-sectoral elements. - Program 4: mobilization of people by assuming leadership and the exemplary performance of the administration. Action lines: general activities and green public procurement; saving and efficiency at work and mobility; information and awareness; education and training;

Structure

KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions Climate scenarios

□ International □ National □ Regional No scenarios available in the area of the Basque Autonomous Community, so the current estimates are a first approximation. Preliminary assessment of the climate change impacts in Spain. Elaboration of regional scenarios of climate change in Spain: - Seasonal distribution of the expected change in the late XXI century in temperature and precipitation in the climatic regions of the Basque Autonomous Community

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity

□ International

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□ National

□ Regional


assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Future vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

Natural systems Water resources and soil and ecosystems; Human health Health protection through the protection of the urban environment; Socio-economic systems - Prevention of climate change impacts on economic activities, especially the primary sector.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION â–Ą No

Stakeholder participation

X Yes

Stakeholder involved

Administrations and public institutions, social, economic and scientific techniques, citizenship

Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder

Coordinated and continuous participation of all actors in order to: - promote the coordination between the various stakeholders so as to optimize the efforts - define specific policy measures and promote them - optimize the monitoring of the Plan and adjust the objectives - promote civic behaviours favourable to the objectives of the Plan and report the level of progress to the various agents. The participatory model is characterized by providing appropriate tools to different stakeholders so as to give them different responsibility. Citizen participation will be associated to communication. This communication will be bidirectional, so that the citizenship will act for both suggestions and proposals and receptor of information. Participation of the productive agents will be addressed to information and communication as well as to evaluation. So in addition to sending and receiving information the analysis of difficulties and objections associated to sectoral policies will be performed. The role of government and public institutions will be to communicate and monitor, review and modify the PVLCC. Various participatory tools. The coordination and combination of all of them will ensure the development of a dynamic participatory process and the involvement of the social global dimension: - forum agents: to publicly report to various social and economic groups on the level of progress of the Plan in relation to the initial objectives as well as to gather suggestions and contributions. Each year these forums will be organised, but two of them will have a relevant meaning: the year 2010 (halfway of the period) and before the end of the period of PVLCC. Each of these forums will consist of separate meetings for different actors: - social forum: civic associations - business forum: industrial and business sector - scientific-technical forum: universities and research centres - inter-agency coordination forum: analysis of the various actions carried out by different administrations by including the experiences promoted at local level. Each year a coordination forum at technical level will be developed. - interregional coordination forum: collaboration between regions in order to fight against climate change, by implementing as a platform to share information and best practices and by promoting collaborations in sustainable development issues among regions through the NRG Network and the Regions of the Atlantic Arc.

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- public communication channels: information and awareness campaigns planned for the Departments of the Government and the OVCC about the Plan and its objectives; web page enabled; forum of citizenship of the Local Agenda 21 for local participation at local level through the collections of suggestions, complaints or inquiries; training for action to schoolchildren in the Basque Autonomous Community to integrate climate change in educational centres.

Phase of the involvement

As a consequence of the evaluation of the Plan various documents will be prepared and disseminated to the agents and citizenship through the channels provided. Elaboration and execution phase ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Program 2 - Anticipation Natural systems Systematic observation and learning - Development of activities addressed to improve knowledge on: - the effects of climate change on ecosystems and animal and plant species, by giving priority to those that due to their location, sensitivity or conservation status are at high risk; - ecosystems and species that due to their location, sensitivity and conservation status are most vulnerable, and strengthening their potential as indicators of climate change impacts; - methodologies for an adequate evaluation of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, and on goods and services provided by the ecosystems; - Revision and identification of existing documents concerning ecosystems and indicator species (research projects and technical studies) in order to set the basis for a monitoring system and the assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity; - Evaluation (from the point of view of design, connectivity, reserve areas) of the existing network of Protected Natural Areas, including Natura 2000, in the various climate change scenarios; - Consolidation of monitoring networks and establishment of monitoring programs and long-term monitoring in relation to: - identification of biological indicators and definition of measurements protocols for monitoring and early warning systems; - systems dominated by pioneer and colonizing species; - animal species in the Basque Autonomous Community that, as in the case of amphibians, are being affected by climate change effects; - migratory and reproductive phenology of species considered as indicators; - introduction and expansion of invasive exotic species; - status of water and aquatic ecosystems of the Basque Autonomous Community and link with climate change; - Improvement of the tide gauges network and oceanographic stations located on the coast (data collection above sea level, temperature, intensity and direction of waves, wind, etc) by promoting and supporting the observation and control system. - Development and evaluation of: - systems and biodiversity of microbial activity in soil (and the evolution of quality and soil fertility) and control and monitoring of soil losses due to erosion; - identification systems for biological indicators of climate change impacts and definition of protocols for the monitoring and early warning. - Definition of habitats of key species at different time scales: - reconstruction of populations according to the climate through the analysis of historical data and paleo-studios; - comparative study of change in the populations through specific studies; - development of habitat models in order to develop future scenarios. Definition of criteria and planning - Development and establishment of guidelines on: - management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems, in order to include climate change in the processes of environmental restoration; - planning and management of protected areas; - promotion of the ecosystem approach in forest management, by promoting the environmental restoration and conservation of natural forests. - Adjustement and availability of media - Establishment of a framework for decision making, which allows the combination of measures of adaptation to climate change, the conservation of biodiversity and the social and economic benefits due to the management of natural resources; - Enhancement the actions of restoration and conservation of ecosystems with a particular attention to those considered vulnerable, as well as the establishment of buffer zones and corridors to facilitate migration of species.

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Human health and urban environment Observation and learning - Coordinated monitoring of climatologic data by means of: - selection, installation and control of representative weather stations in order to obtain large-scale climatic data and oceanographic data in coastal areas; - homogenization of numerical series of high definition in order to facilitate the comparison of current and historical data - establishment of climatic and oceanographic modelling system at the scale of the Basque Autonomous Community. - Realization of economic impact studies and other options for the prevention of climate change impacts in the municipalities at high risk of flooding. Development of tools for the evaluation of investments sensitive to the future impacts of climate change. - Strengthening of the monitoring system for air pollution in the cities: sampling points and/or additional parameters in relation to climate change. Definition of criteria and planning - Consideration of the effects of climate change in order to: - strengthen the Planning Guidelines so as to limit the construction of residential or industrial areas in particularly vulnerable areas (i.e. floodplains such as river banks or coastal areas) - make future revisions of flooding plans (PIPI) - prepare the Hydrological Plan related to the Basins of the Basque Autonomous Community and other planning documents. Adaptation and availability of media - Inclusion of the increase in sea level and the modification of rainfall patterns in: - future work in the area of tidal flooding; - successive works of sanitation and depuration. - Adaptation of: - health services to new needs (increase of the respiratory and allergic disease or increase of the effects of heat waves); - infrastructure/health buildings. - Prevention and management of adverse weather events: - adjustment and improvement of forecasting system of extreme events (persistent high temperature, heavy rainfall, etc); - improvement of the emergency protocols related to extreme weather events such as floods, strong winds, persistent high temperature, etc. Economic activities Observation and learning - Elaboration of studies on the primary sector: - degree of harm to agriculture, forestry and livestock due to the increase of temperature and evapotranspiration; - models to assess and establish scenarios related to the variation in oceanographic conditions (temperature, sea level rise, turbulence) on fisheries; - climate change impacts on species relevant to hunting and fishing (migration, population increase and decrease, etc); - identification and dissemination of methods in agriculture favouring soil fertility, soil organic carbon content and water conservation (irrigation, fertilization, crop varieties, etc). - Realization of studies on the tourist sector: - impacts associated to the tourist sector and its opportunities for adaptation in response to the general scenario identified for the Basque Autonomous Community; Definition of criteria and planning - Development of criteria and guidelines for land use (agricultural, urban, infrastructure), land use change and forestry based on the ecosystem approach, by searching a balance between adaptation to climate change, biodiversity and the social objectives. Adjustement and availability of media - Promotion of the dialogue in the forestry sector concerning the processes of land use change and forestry activities in order to define measures aiming at the adaptation to climate change; - Promotion of changes in the current forest management model considering land preservation as an important carbon sink. Program 3 – Knowledge Basic research and cooperation - Creation, launch and management of a Basic Excellence Research Centre (BERC) on climate change; - Development and financing of Etortek projects on climate change adaptation, meteorology and climatology; - Creation of Collaborative Research Centre (CIC) on intelligent transport. Applied research - Support to the development of projects Gaitek/Innotek on: - less carbon emssions in life cycle of materials; - carbon removal; - secondary raw materials that reduce process emissions. - Development of research activities aiming at the improvement of knowledge of habitats and ecosystems in order to face the effects of climate change on them.

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Cros-sectoral elements - Feasibility study on edaphic and climatic possibilities concerning the introduction of crops for biofuel production and analysis of energy balance and life cycle; - Participation in international projects in the framework of the VII R&D Program of the European Union; - Creation of a new Postgraduate Master addressed to the issue of climate change; - Creation of a postgraduate Master on sustainability in building sector; - Program addressed to the experience exchange developed by different schools and universities in the field of climate change and sustainable development. Program 4 – Citizenship and administration Basque Government General activities and green public procurement - Study on the economic impact of climate change in the Basque Autonomous Community; - Integration in the Ecobarometro Social and Ecobarometros Municipales the issue of climate change, as well as in the Ecobarometro Escolar. Local administration General activities and green public procurement - Promotion in the field of planning: - development of criteria and standards favouring adaptation and mitigation of climate change and the design of compact city and the respect of environment; - rehabilitation, regeneration and maintenance of existing city against urban development as a key factor of adaptation and emissions reduction; - design and implementation of local climate change programs within the Local Agenda 21 processes in the municipalities of 20.000 inhabitants; - approval of an ordinance on climate change in 5 municipalities. Education and training - Development the Local Agenda 21 and the Agenda 21 for schools in collaboration with social partners and other departments and administrations, by establishing protocols for action and communication to citizenship. Mobilization of citizenship Information and awareness - Information and awareness on the effects of climate change; - Development of activities targeted to the increase of knowledge and public awareness in relation to climate change impacts (biodiversity, weather, adaptation actions, etc.). Studies about public perception on implicit and explicit risks due to climate change in order to elaborate educational and informative strategies. Education and training - Promotion and development of research programs in schools in order to enhance Environmental Pedagogy since an early age in programs looking at this perspective such as the international Program GLOBE; - Support information campaigns in schools, both in the field of climate change and sustainable development: - to elaborate and distribute promotional materials in schools (interactive games, books, teaching guides); - Integration the sustainability into the priority lines of the Department of Education in educational centres; - Development and implementation of programs and training courses for teacher in schools taking into consideration climate change; - Consideration in the individual training programs GARATU and Traning in Centers, the theme of climate change and the sustainable development. Promotion of the exchange of experiences in didactic activities in order to complete the annual project of the centre. X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction □ Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost/efficiency Cost analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

X Yearly □ Two years X More (3 years) Each year a monitoring report of the Plan elaborated by the Basque Office for climate change will be prepared. It will incorporate the indicators, the qualitative level of actions in each program as well as the final results of the foros de agentes and the foros de los grupos de impulso.

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The results of the annual monitoring will be incorporated into the annual Environmental Sustainability Report of the Basque Autonomous Community. In the mid-term evaluation reports will be prepared in order to present the revision of the Plan and to modify the final objectives of the PVLCC as a function of the degree of progress and the new energy planning criteria, sustainable consumption, waste. At the end of the period a report concerning the achievements of the Plan will be issued with a detailed audit of the efforts performed, the results achieved and what should be done in the future. A three-year monitoring activity will be performed about the progress of the behaviour of citizens in relation to climate change through the Ecobarometro Social. X Indicators X Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Target to 2012. Program 2 – Anticipation 100% Departments of the Basque Government will have screened the effects of climate change in their policies. Observation and learning - % priority areas with monitoring network; Definition of criteria and planning - % planning instruments including criteria in the field of climate change; Adjustement - % of new plans and projects integrating the climate variables; Target to 2012. Program 3 – Scientific and technical development Expenditure in R&D for climate change equal to 4% of the total expenditure of the Plan; Basic research and cooperation - N researchers; Applied research - N approved projects; Cross-sectoral elements - N approved projects; Program 4 – Citizenship and exemplary administration Education and training - % of the Basque Government staff trained; - % of the municipal staff trained; - % of centres that realized campaigns; - % of teachers trained; Information and awareness - % of population informed; - % of population sensitized.

Monitoring tools

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION

Country/Region/Municipality

12. Estrategia local frente al Cambio climatico del Municipio de Murcia y Plan de actuacion Spain/Murcia/Municipality of Murcia

Responsible body

Municipality of Murcia

Name of the strategy/plan

Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

Timeline of actions

2008-2012

□ No

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To know the emissions of GHGs produced in the municipality; To reduce the emissions of GHGs caused by local activity and all the activities, facilities or situations managed by the municipality; To expand or improve the action of vegetation in the municipality as sinks of greenhouse gases; To encourage the use of more efficient or innovative technologies in the field of power consumption; To mitigate the effects of climate change through adaptation mechanisms; To increase awareness of population on causes and consequences of climate change.

Objectives

Structure KNOWLEDGE BASE Current climate conditions □ International X National □ Regional Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Spanish Office Indicators - Seasonal average temperature; - Seasonal precipitation.

Climate scenarios

Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment

Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

□ International □ National □ Regional Indicators - Water consumption (litre/capita/day); - Increase in the control of leakage of the network and in the public awareness; - Water pollution load into sewer; - % residual water purification in the sewage system; - New wastewater treatment and control of industrial discharges in order to reuse the water.

Water, Soil, Health

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Measures to reduce the impacts of climate change Water - Development of the Project “hogares verdes”: audits of water-efficient homes; - Implantation of remote stations for water quality and waste control; - Automatic real-time management of municipal sewage networks; - Promotion of the connection of the houses in the garden without sanitation to the existing sanitation networks and to those of new construction; - Automatic control of pressure and flow rate of 100% of the collection and distribution networks in the municipality; - Installation of energy recovery systems at points of pressure control; - Regulation of pressure in the water networks in the municipality; - Establishment of active leak detection. Use of systems for leak detection and location.

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Implementation of automatic warning systems to the citizens about possible network failures; New drinking water reservoirs in northern TM; Ensure saving in water consumption through the licensing of activities: installation of devices and adoption of habits for saving water. Implementation of the Law 6/2006 on increase in the for saving and conservation measures on water consumption and the new proposed ordinance. - Use in green areas of native species or plants with low water requirements and the effective irrigation water saving; - Use of non-potable water for irrigation of green areas and street cleaning; - Preparation of regular audits of water consumption in municipal buildings in order to optimize the use in them (office buildings, sport facilities, schools, etc…). Health - Implantation of a network for the control of legionella and allergenic substances; - Replacement of the open circuit cooling towers with closed circuit towers; - Monitoring and control of the biological quality of air conditioning in municipal buildings. Soil - Creation of the European Thematic Centre for drought and desertification. Information and public awareness - Awareness campaigns addressed to employers, families and schools: lectures, workshops and visits; - Green Schools Award; - Exhibition on climate change; - Campaigns addressed to the population for water saving; - Ecoagenda; - Annual report on progress in the municipality of Murcia in the fight against climate change; - Information point on climate change. X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction X Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity X Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

X Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly □ Two years □ More

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other

Measures to reduce the impacts of climate change Water - Development of the Project “hogares verdes”: audits of water-efficient homes; - Implantation of remote stations for water quality and waste control; - Automatic real-time management of municipal sewage networks; - Development of new storms sewers and tanks; - Promotion of the connection of the houses in the garden without sanitation to the existing sanitation networks and to those of new construction; - Automatic control of pressure and flow rate of 100% of the collection and distribution networks in the municipality; - Installation of energy recovery systems in at points of pressure control; - Regulation of pressure in the water networks in the municipality; - Establishment of active leak detection. Use of systems for leak detection and location.

Measures to reduce the impacts of climate change N of audits performed Saving in water consumption per capita N of stations implanted N of actuators and instruments installed N of km of collectors

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Implementation of automatic warning systems to the citizens about possible network failures; - New drinking water reservoirs in northern TM; - Ensure saving in water consumption through the licensing of activities: installation of devices and adoption of habits for saving water. Implementation of the Law 6/2006 on increase in the for saving and conservation measures on water consumption and the new proposed ordinance. - Use in green areas of native species or plants with low water requirements and the effective irrigation water saving; - Use of non-potable water for irrigation of green areas and street cleaning; - Preparation of regular audits of water consumption in municipal buildings in order to optimize the use in them (office buildings, sport facilities, schools, etc…). Health - Implantation of a network for the control of legionella and allergenic substances; - Replacement of the open circuit cooling towers with closed circuit towers; - Monitoring and control of the biological quality of air conditioning in municipal buildings. Soil - Creation of the European Thematic Centre for drought and desertification. Information and public awareness - Awareness campaigns addressed to employers, families and schools: lectures, workshops and visits; - Green Schools Award; - Exhibition on climate change; - Campaigns addressed to the population for water saving; - Ecoagenda; - Annual report on progress in the municipality of Murcia in the fight against climate change; - Information point on climate change.

N of deposits and km of pipelines N of projects reviewed

% of native species or low requirements % of green areas with native species % water consumption saving

Degree of execution N of old equipment replaced Inspections carried out

Degree of execution N of research projects carried out N visitors

N participants

N of reward centers N visitors N participants N copies published Dissemination and impacts of the reports N consultations

Analysis scheme to assess existing regional and local strategies/plans GENERAL INFORMATION Name of the strategy/plan Country/Region/Municipality

13. Estrategia de adaptacion al cambio climatico en la ciudad de Zaragoza Spain/Aragona/Zaragoza

Responsible body Year of creation Type of approach

□ Adaptation X Mitigation and adaptation

Existence of national strategy/plan

X Yes

□ No

Timeline of actions Objectives

To pave the way for a strategy that allow to the city of Zaragoza to successfully address climate change, by avoiding or mitigating the adverse effects on health, resources and biodiversity, and by

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contributing to stimulate opportunities in terms of economy or technology. Structure KNOWLEDGE BASE Delegation of the State Agency of Meteorology: Annual average temperature (1869-2009); Comparative mean monthly temperature in thirty years (1961-1990; 1981-2009; 1971-2000); Annual rainfall in Zaragoza (1868-2008); Relative humidity map in Zaragoza. □ International □ National □ Regional

Current climate conditions

Climate scenarios Plans and programs Current socio-economic conditions Socio-economic scenarios Current vulnerability, impacts, adaptive capacity assessment Methodologies for vulnerability, impacts and adaptive capacity assessment Natural systems/Sectors

□ International X National □ Regional Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts in Spain.

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Water and water resources, biodiversity, urban planning and construction, human health. Forestry, agriculture, soil, transports, industry and energy. Tourism, finance and assurance.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNICATION Stakeholder participation

□ Yes

□ No

Stakeholder involved Key stakeholder Methods used to involve stakeholder Phase of the involvement ADAPTATION OPTIONS Urban planning and constructions To include the concepts and adaptation policies in territorial planning and the definition of land use; To encourage urban development to facilitate walking and mobility by bicycle and the availability and use of public transportation, by stimulating citizens to work together to improve their behaviour and to avoid the private use of car; To promote the maintenance of the model of the compact city; To design and develop new urbanization with criteria of compactness and multifunctional characteristics; To avoid the use of materials which can absorb the solar radiation; To encourage the construction of bioclimatic buildings, according to the Municipal Ordinance of Ecoefficiency and use of Renewable Energies in buildings and facilities; To promote the Mediterranean urban model: shadow corridors, narrow street, buildings of four to six floors, etc.; To design spaces that encourage the creation of healthy microclimates by taking into account the guidance in the design, building water systems, etc.; To promote tree planting and the creation of green spaces in all the areas of the city with appropriate climatic characteristics; To pay attention to the construction or renovation of buildings in order to make them more resistant to natural disaster and climate proofing; To promote energy saving in all the phases: design, execution and maintenance; To install renewable energy and canopies on the rooftops. Water and water resources To promote water-saving policies with actions and programs, by favouring the formation through campaigns aimed at the general public, school community, universities, industrial sector, etc.; To promote measures favouring the availability of water quality; To preserve and enhance water quality of the three rivers that cross the city; To build climate proofing buildings by avoiding to build in flood plains or install basements in low-lying areas;

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To reform existing buildings to make them more resistant to climate; To plan distribution networks and water drainage by taking into account the increasing probability of occurrence of dry period and more torrential precipitation intensity; To automate the network of drinking water and reduce leakage; To conduct activities with farmers in water saving initiatives: electronic irrigation, rainfed crops. To promote through awareness campaigns, the consumption of organic products and the minimization of waste generation through its impact on saving water and energy, and the reduction of pollutant load of fertilizers. Biodiversity and natural resources Adequate management and recovery of ecosystems; Reforestation with species well adapted to the area, by giving priority to those with the capacity to absorb more CO2 and thus enhancing the sink effect; Use of native species and with absorbing capacity in the urban forest; Regulation and control harmful discharges to rivers and territories and emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere, uncontrolled or exceeding current legislative limits; To facilitate recycling and avoid hazardous and non-hazardous waste disposal; Creation and expansion of greenways; Protection of biological diversity; Design of reserve and parks with biological corridors; Regulation of agricultural and livestock use; Focus on sensitive species, especially those who are not able to move; Development of policies dedicated to saving and appropriate waste management; Use of technologies for the recovery of biogas in landfills. Health Collaboration with health authorities in performing actions related to climate change; Collaboration in epidemiological studies conducted by other governments; Campaigns among municipal employees to avoid health risk; Provision of instruments to carry out actions in the areas that require: water and sanitation infrastructure, clinics and first aid kits; Use of eco-labelled products. X Knowledge base development Type of actions X Vulnerability reduction X Strengthening the adaptive capacity □ Increase the technical capacity □ Raising awareness/Communication □ Taking advantage from opportunities Cost benefit analysis MONITORING, EVALUATION AND REVIEW Implementation Monitoring mechanisms

□ Yes □ No

Frequency of monitoring

□ Yearly

Monitoring tools

X Indicators □ Targets □ Public surveys □ Other Urban planning and constructions Distance of each citizen from basic services and certain green areas; N of houses built with bioclimatic criteria; Type of displacement for children to school. Water and water resources - Annual water consumption. Biodiversity and natural resources - N of most sensitive species. Public health

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□ Two years □ More


ANNEX II - Climate and socio-economic scenarios Climate change assessments are permeated by uncertainty, requiring the use of specialized methods such as climate scenarios. This is a principle reason to recommend that adaptation assessments be anchored with an understanding of current climate risk. The major tool used to assess the impacts of future climate is the climate scenario. A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is one of the main tools for assessing future developments in complex systems that may be unpredictable, are insufficiently understood and have high scientific uncertainties. Scenarios can range from the simple to the complex, and from the qualitative to quantitative, encompassing narrative descriptions of possible futures to complex mathematical descriptions combining mean climate changes with climate extremes. Even when scenarios are constructed in narrative form, or are based on broad projections of climate change, plausibility and consistency should be maintained as much as possible. Usually, a scenario has no likelihood attached to it beyond being plausible. However, it is the basic building block of risk assessment approaches under climate change that use scenarios, ranges of uncertainty, probability distribution functions and Bayesian analysis. While the qualitative aspects of risk and coping ranges can be readily utilised in conceptual models (i.e., by stakeholders identifying the point where the level of harm exceeds tolerance levels), the more applied methods require a well-developed research capacity. While it would be useful, it is not always possible to have models linking the entire process from climate change to socio-economic outcomes. For example, if only biophysical models are available, or if vulnerability cannot be adequately quantified, stakeholders may decide to identify levels of vulnerability in biophysical terms where there is an agreed consensus about the degree of vulnerability: in terms of flooding, there may be a particular water level associated with widespread damage; if only rainfall data is available researchers may quantify the rainfall amounts preceding similar levels of inundations; for agriculture, rainfall may be used as a proxy for loss of production or given levels of food security. In terms of sustainability, stakeholders may identify a level of crop production that they think is sustainable and assess how they may reach that target under climate change. Socio-economic scenarios may need to be developed to explore how coping ranges may evolve. The coping range can be used to assess how the ability to cope is affected by a perturbed climate and to assess the changing ability to cope over time. The same activity can be affected by several planning horizons used by different stakeholders (e.g., financial, urban planning and engineering horizons for infrastructure). For example, in a water resource or catchment-based assessment, the planning life of water storages may be 50+ years, but planning for supply may only be 5-15 years (Figure 6). A risk assessment may then want to create scenarios based on two time horizons such as 2020 and 2050 to accommodate both water policy and infrastructure horizons respectively. The policy horizon is related to the period of time over which a particular policy is planned to be implemented. This may not be on the same time scale as a planning horizon. For instance, the infrastructure affecting an activity will have an engineering life of many decades, but the policy horizon governing the operation of that infrastructure may be much shorter. Most natural resource policy is implemented over periods of 5 to 15 years. Such policies may be reviewed or updated over time but are often expected to manage resources over a much longer planning horizon.

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Figure 6: A representative section of planning horizons relevant to climate risk assessments. Few of these planning horizons are fixed. They cover a range of time and some (e.g., long-term biodiversity) will extend long beyond 2100. Source: UNDP, 2004.

Risk assessment may be extended over the longer planning horizon, but adaptations developed to manage those risks are likely to be applied over short-term policy horizons (e.g., a long-term strategic outlook is often used to inform shorter-term adaptations). These longer-term outlooks are important, because to ignore strategic objectives in favour of exclusively short-term management may lead to incremental changes accumulating in unintended or irreversible outcomes. If the existing planning horizon does not extend beyond the policy horizon, assessment of the potential risks under climate change may be used to alert policy-makers to the value of taking a longer-term view. A tension exist between the long-term needs of sustainable development and the short-term needs of economic and policy development. The major purpose of assessing climate change risk is to help prioritize possible adaptations that may be feasible. Some measures, such as no-regrets options, or generic measures that will provide adaptation benefits in a broad range of plausible circumstances, will prove to be better than others. Assessing current and changing socio-economic conditions. Understanding the socio-economic pattern of any system is essential for adapting to climate change. Vulnerability to climate change depends on the interactions between changing socio-economic conditions and climate potential impacts. The feasibility of its adaptation options requires socio-economic analyses of the underlying barriers and opportunities. At worst climate change impacts are projected on a static society, without accounting for changes in key socio-economic drivers of human development. Government policies – including taxes and regulations – encourage certain economic and social activities and discourage others. The culture of societies, their forms of social solidarity and organization, are all important factors in shaping adaptation policy. The challenge is to develop adaptation strategies appropriate to the societies of the future. To achieve this goal, first, the relationship between current and future climate and changing socio-economic conditions must be explicit. Second, projected socio-economic conditions and their implications for vulnerability of systems should be explored. Adopting this approach increases the realism of the analysis. A scenario represents a plausible and simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. Storyline are qualitative, holistic pictures of the general structures and values of society. Storylines can be developed at any scale – from the global, to the regional, national, or local levels. They describe conditions that might be produced by human choices about economic and social policy, reproduction, occupations, and energy/technology use. Storylines are useful tools for policy makers to vision alternative future worlds. - 106 -


The effort can range from a qualitative description to a full-blown assessment, based on resourceintensive, model-based processes. The output may be summarized as a brief section of the full adaptation report, or as an extensive report that includes model results. The description should accomplish the following: - analyze current socio-economic conditions, including current natural resource management practices, describing changes in the last 10 to 20 years (50 years if possible) due to climate change, including variability. This analysis constitutes the adaptation baseline. - develop qualitative storylines, and quantitative or qualitative future scenarios: construct a reference scenario without adaptation, scenarios with past and current adaptation measures, and scenarios with additional adaptation policies and measures. - ensure consistency among global, regional, national, sub-national and local scenarios. - analyze socio-economic prospects, taking into account the lower and upper parts of the economic cycle. - Analyze vulnerability to climate change, considering the cyclical, sometimes random fluctuations found in different sectors and regions. As a starting point the team should review existing documents and modify them as needed. Examples include development plans, poverty reduction strategies, and sustainability assessments. Together, the adaptation project team and stakeholders select the indicators and/or descriptions that are most relevant to the area, sector, and people that are being analyzed. Stakeholder knowledge may be more important than any quantitative data. In developing an adaptation baseline, the starting point is an overview of the socio-economic elements that make the selected priority area important. In any adaptation process, the overview should be tailored to suit the priority system or area. It is likely that this priority system was chosen because its important assets and economic activities have been systematically impacted by climate hazards, and that this maladaptive trend has increased its vulnerability. Its socio-economic elements should be described (e.g., people and infrastructure at risk from floods; or hunger, disease and internal migration consequences of drought). Recent experience, both events and responses, should be summarized. The overall assessment may include biophysical information as well as socio-economic information. For convenience the relevant elements are divided into five categories: demographic analysis, economic analysis, natural resource use, governance and development policies, and culture. For all categories, the description should be more detailed than simply trends in population growth and GDP per capita over the past two to five decades. Demographic analysis. Demographic characteristics are essential for an analysis of socio-economic conditions. Key demographic indicators should be selected. The objective is to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability of people in the priority system. The number of people living in the priority system is a starting point, but the population’s well-being also depends on how they are distributed in the area. the workforce versus unemployment levels, health characteristics and male/female education levels. Examples of potential indicators for use in demographic analysis include the following: population size, age structure, population density, rate of population growth, location/urbanisation, migration, education (e.g., literacy rate), housing with electricity, rate of poverty and extreme poverty, health characteristics (e.g., infant mortality), food security (e.g., dietary needs, composition and costs, local basic diet, food sources, availability and accessibility). Such demographic characteristics are key to the priority area’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The next step is to relate the demographics of the priority area to national-level information: “What are the differences between the priority area or sector and the country?”. Economic analysis. An economic profile of the people who live in the area – their types of employment activity – is an important element of current socio-economic conditions. “What are the principal ways people make their livings, and what is the share of each activity in the priority area or sector’s overall economy?”, “Are shifts being seen, e.g. in the types of crops planted or livestock raised?”, “Is off-farm employment an increasing trend?”, “What is the unemployment rate?”. Such questions can inform the economic analysis. The principal economic activities of the priority system - 107 -


can be captured by the following development patterns, policies and associated indicators: monetary policies (market participation, public and private investment, income, savings), industrial and infrastructure policies (industrialisation, infrastructure), labour policy (labour, migration), agricultural policy (food security, land tenure), environmental policy (environmental impacts). Natural resource use on which the priority system depend: water quality and quantity, forest cover, deforestation rates, expansion/abandonment of agricultural lands, desertification and the potential for further and different uses. Analysis of governance and policy by evaluating existing policies and programmes, detailing the planning and policy-making processes for the priority system, assessing adaptive capacity to implement policies and programmes. Cultural analysis through cultural values and traditions relevant for adaptation especially education, knowledge development, technical assistance, endogenous technological development, local research, communication and public awareness. Characterizing adaptations for coping with today’s climate constitute the adaptation baseline. This baseline is a comprehensive description of adaptations that are in place to cope with current climate. The baseline may be both qualitative and quantitative, but should be operationally defined with a limited set of parameters (indicators). Current adaptations also represent an opportunity to address maladaptation to current climate. Ideally, socio-economic conditions should describe historical changes over the past 10-20 years. However, depending on the recent political or socioeconomic history of each country, timeframes could be 50 or even more years in the past. The analysis is not intended to be comprehensive; in most cases, a narrative description will suffice, augmented by quantitative data if available. Characterising changing socio-economic conditions. At this point, project teams will have gathered enough information about the present and past to assess future socio-economic conditions. There are two remaining tasks: the first is to develop alternative storyline of the future for an appropriate time period – between 20 and 50 years into the future and the second is to make projections about how socio-economic conditions will change in the future under the alternative storylines. If the indicators chosen are qualitative, the description of socio-economic prospects will also be qualitative. In order to examine future adaptation to climate change, analysts construct accounts of what the future may be like. For this purpose, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) developed scenarios – i.e., coherent pictures of the future within which certain trends make sense. These narrative descriptions provide very general accounts based on two dimensions: the extent of sustainable development and economic development at local or global levels. These storyline allow for integrated analysis and for identification of key systems. Example of storyline are the following: (1) reference scenario, does not consider climate change and the current socio-economic conditions are projected into the future; (2) and (3) are two significantly different projections in which development will proceed, taking climate change into account through adaptation policies. One set of policies may attempt to preserve current economic activities and socio-economic conditions using technologies; another set of policies alternatively could emphasize different crops or a reduction of agricultural activity. The choice and assumptions of the reference scenario is crucial. Examples for reference scenario tools: (1) extrapolation, an approach to define a reference scenario is the extrapolation of historical trends, (2) perpetuation of short-term trends, the current conditions and trends expected to prevail in the near future may be assumed to continue in the medium and long term. The implementation of current government policies can be assumed to continue in the same direction. (3) analogues using key indicators or other countries as prospective futures, requires an in-depth qualitative analysis in order to fully consider the national circumstances and drivers, including the social organization and the nature of the development process. One or several analogue areas may be identified that are similar to the priority area in terms of natural resources, economic activities, history, culture, and governance but that have successfully addressed some of the issues currently facing the priority area. (4) integrated analysis, a flexible design accounts for

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the interplay of trends, trade-offs among policy mixes, making use of subjective judgments to depict a feasible unfolding of the future. For any of the storyline, the projection of the socio-economic context is of utmost importance to the climatic vulnerability of the priority area. The same five categories described in the overview of the socio-economic conditions today (i.e, demographic, economic, natural resource, government/policy, and cultural analysis) could be used to develop projections of socio-economic conditions (UNDP, 2004).

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ANNEX III - Adaptive capacity Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity. Vulnerability assessment must form the basis for strategies to enhance adaptive capacity. Similarly, the nature of adaptive capacity and appropriate adaptation strategies is partly determined by the nature of the hazards to which systems must adapt; factors relating to development, economic well-being, health and education status are important determinants of adaptive capacity. Identifying existing adaptive capacity and developing strategies for enhancing capacity are essential prerequisites for designing and implementing adaptation strategies. In practical terms, adaptive capacity is the ability to design and implement effective adaptation strategies, or to react to evolving hazards and stresses so as to reduce the likelihood of the occurrence and/or the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from climate-related hazards. The adaptation process requires the capacity to learn from previous experiences to cope with current climate, and to apply these lessons to cope with future climate, including surprises. The adaptive capacity inherent in a system represents the set of resources available for adaptation, as well as the ability or capacity of that system to use these resources effectively in the pursuit of adaptation. Such resources may be natural, financial, institutional or human, and might include access to ecosystems, information, expertise, and social network. However, the realisation of this capacity (i.e., actual adaptation) may be frustrated by outside factors; these external barriers, therefore, must also be addressed (i.e., national regulations, economic policies). Adaptive capacity development is viewed as a central goal of most adaptation strategies. Information on the nature and evolution of the climate hazards faced by a society – both historical climate data and data from scenarios of future climate change – is key to enhancing adaptive capacity. On the other hand, information on socio-economic systems, including both past and possible future evolution, is important. Within these evolving socio-economic and developmental contexts, viable adaptation strategies can be designed. Adaptive capacity, therefore, depends on the ability of a society to act collectively, and to resolve conflicts between its members – factors that are heavily influenced by governance. Historical records will be of great value in identifying climate trends and “early warnings” of climate change. Clearly, climate information will be vital in planning adaptation strategies, and a system’s capacity to adapt to climate change will be heavily influenced by its ability to collect and interpret such information. Adaptive capacity is most easily perceived in terms of the capacity of a particular system to adapt so as to better cope with a particular climate hazard or set of hazards. A system may be a region, a community, a household, an economic sector, a business, a population group, or ecological system. Systems will be exposed to varying degrees to different climate events with potential to cause harm. For unmanaged ecological systems, adaptive capacity will depend on factors such as biodiversity and migration potential. In a system with high biodiversity there may be more potential for species to occupy new niches created by changed environmental conditions or the loss of other species, although the loss of key-stone species may have dramatic implications for the survival of ecosystems. Ecosystems that are geographically constrained will be less able to adapt to change than those that have space to migrate with shifts in climatic zones. Migration of ecosystems in response to shifts in climatic zones will also be limited by the growth rates of their constituent flora; rapid shifts in climatic zones may exceed rates at which such systems can migrate in response to an expansion of favourable climatic conditions. Adaptation in ecosystems may be promoted by human actions, such as creation of migration corridors through urban or agricultural areas, and the avoidance of fragmentation. It may also be possible to relocate certain species, and even whole ecosystems, to areas that are more favourable to their survival under changed climatic conditions. Adaptive capacity may also be enhanced by the reduction of non-climatic stresses related to factors such as pollution and resource exploitation; the promotion of sustainable development is thus likely to enhance the adaptive capacity of ecosystems. However, it should be recognised that most ecosystems are managed to some extent, and an approach that views sustainable development in terms of coupled ecological and social systems is - 110 -


likely to be more fruitful than one that attempts to separate “human” and “natural” systems in most instances. The impacts of a climate hazard on an exposed system are mediated by that system’s vulnerability. The determinants of vulnerability will depend on how a system is defined but may include social, economic, political, cultural, environmental and geographic factors. The vulnerability of a system to climate change will be inversely related to the capacity of that system to respond and adapt to change over time: a description of a system’s vulnerability to climate change will therefore require a knowledge of that system’s adaptive capacity, in contrast to a description of the instantaneous vulnerability of a system at a given time. Indicators of adaptive capacity. Indicators of adaptive capacity are difficult to identify as adaptive capacity is not directly measurable. Recognizing this difficulty, UNDP-GEF (2003) uses a score card (subjective) approach for assessing changes in capacity attributable to a project. Capacity development projects might choose to address such factors at the local scale where they can be particularly effective in developing the capacity of highly vulnerable communities. Appropriate indicators for assessing adaptive capacity must be tailored to each case. These may be identified by asking the following nine questions: - What is the nature of the system/population being assessed? - What are the principal hazards faced by this system/population? - What are the major impacts of these hazards and which elements/groups of the system/population are most vulnerable to these hazards? - Why are these elements/groups particularly vulnerable? - What measures would reduce the vulnerability of these elements/groups? - What are the factors that determine whether these measures are taken? - Can we assess these factors in order to measure the capacity of the system population to implement these measures? - What are the external and internal barriers to the implementation of these measures? Component 1 – Scoping and designing an adaptation project What is the adaptive capacity priority of the project, and what is the specific capacity enhancement goal? . Once the priority system and risks have been identified, the project team should consider the project’s adaptation objective. The aim of a capacity development project should be to increase the ability of systems to adapt, and of individuals and groups to design and implement adaptations. A capacity development project might be broken down into the following activities: - identifying a range of adaptations - prioritise adaptations based on their efficacy, feasibility and acceptability - remove barriers to adaptation - identify who is to act for planned adaptations Component 2 – Assessing current vulnerability What adaptive capacity already exists to reduce current vulnerability to recurrent hazards? For projects using the adaptive-capacity approach, it is possible to develop an adaptive capacity baseline. Since there are few clear quantitative indicators of adaptive capacity, this baseline will generally be constructed from qualitative indicators. Component 3 – Assessing future climate risks What capacity will societies have to adapt to future hazards? The capacity to adapt to future climate hazards will be enhanced by the following measures: - develop an understanding of possible future climate hazards based on model projections and climate scenarios where these are available. - where the above are not available, focus on the types of hazards from modelling studies, scenarios and analysis of recent trends. - develop an observational capacity to identify trends that may constitute “early warning” of climate change

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adopt a vulnerability-based approach to risk management that is nonetheless informed by a prioritisation of hazards based on the above considerations - create an environment in which adaptation is possible by disseminating information about climate change and its potential consequences, and addressing uncertainty - engage stakeholders to discuss and formulate strategies to increase the capacity to adapt to future climate change. Component 4 – Formulating an adaptation strategy What measures, policies and strategies enhance adaptive capacity and encourage autonomous adaptation? The principal elements of the capacity development process are as follows: - raise awareness of the risk associated with the hazard - identify a set of possible adaptation options, including those that may be undertaken by actors at a range of scales, from institutions and government to communities and individuals - prioritise options based on their efficacy, feasibility and acceptability - remove barriers to adaptation within the system being addressed. How can we identify and prioritise adaptation and capacity development options? An initial shortlist of options for adaptation/capacity development may be drawn up, based on considerations of what is appropriate and technically feasible within the existing socio-economic and political context. The short-listed options can then be prioritised based on how likely they are to be effective (efficacy), how easy they are to implement (feasibility), and how acceptable they will be to those affected by them (acceptability). To a large extent, feasibility and acceptability might be based on considerations of cost, although non-financial criteria must also be considered. Prioritisation might therefore be performed using a multi-criteria analysis, or by seeking consensus among stakeholders. Different interest groups will exhibit preferences for certain adaptation options, and the resolution of inter-group conflicts will be central to the adaptation process. Clearly, fostering dialogue and nurturing a culture of consensus may be important in enhancing adaptive capacity. What constraints might there be on adaptive capacity? Acceptability represents an important constraint on adaptive capacity. For example, building a dam to buffer a region against drought – by storing and providing water for domestic, industrial and agricultural use – may be unacceptable for social and ecological reasons. Its construction may displace people, destroy valued ecosystems, or inundate culturally important areas. Alternatively, it might be prohibitively expensive, or threaten the security of communities downstream. It may also lead to reduced stream flow in neighbouring downstream countries, and become a source of potential political conflict. In such a case, acceptability represents the “weakest link” in terms of adaptive capacity. Alternatively, an adaptation measure may be effective and acceptable, but might not be feasible due to technological limitations. Cost might be the deciding factor, making certain measures feasible in wealthy countries but impossible in poor nations, again emphasising the importance of developing adaptation solutions that are appropriate to local circumstances, with input from stakeholders. What policy considerations are important in capacity development strategies? Policies aimed at enhancing adaptive capacity must achieve a balance between strong regulations to prevent maladaptation and measures to encourage adaptive behaviour. Policies should provide individuals, communities and organisation with sufficient flexibility to pursue adaptation strategies appropriate to their circumstances. New policies should be assessed in terms of their potential impacts on adaptive capacity, particularly for groups and systems that already exhibit high vulnerability and/or exposure to climate hazards. Component 5 – Continuing the adaptation process How can efforts to enhance adaptive capacity be sustained and improved over time? Once strategy has been developed and barriers to adaptation addressed, adaptation measures can be implemented.

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Adaptation measures must be ongoing, and strategies to encourage and facilitate adaptation should not be seen as “one-off” measures. For this reason it is important that the adaptation strategies be assessed on a continual or regular basis. The following questions are important to the adaptation learning process: - are the strategies working – i.e. are they effective as anticipated at reducing vulnerability and/or effectively managing risk? - once implemented, are the adaptation strategies still viewed as acceptable – i.e., are there any unexpected negative consequences of these strategies that reduce their acceptability? - are the strategies as feasible as was anticipated – i.e., are there any previously unforeseen difficulties in their implementation? - has adaptive capacity really been increased? - are people more willing and better able to pursue autonomous adaptation? Monitoring the success of adaptation and capacity development strategies is necessary, but not sufficient, to ensure that the adaptation process continues effectively. In addition, adaptation strategies must be flexible, and able to incorporate new information on climate hazards and on socio-economic and environmental systems. Given the high degree of uncertainty in both climate and socio-economic scenarios, it is highly probable that, as new information becomes available and our understanding of the climate system and processes of adaptation improves, existing strategies will need revision or updating (UNDP, 2004).

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State of the Art Review on Adaptation  

Guidelines, Adaptation Strategies and Plans at regional and local level

State of the Art Review on Adaptation  

Guidelines, Adaptation Strategies and Plans at regional and local level

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