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 ภ  Intrinsic Value    , Value.exteen.com


1.  !ภFuture value  ภภ !ภ"# ภภ$ภ! %& !'% (ภ ! %)*$ภ%'+,- ).-/. ภ/012ภ3 )2 ภ4 % . ภ/012)* *5%! % -%)*$ภ 6%*70 2 9 2!%01  %: !)*: 2; "/  (1)

   

FV = A,'6% %' , PV = A,'*CD/%, i =  . ภ/012, n = 9% %*7 $ภ! % PV / .- 2. ภ/012 i % / -%*5% , n *7 6% %' G0! % (FV) ) 2.  !ภPresent value   

  

(2)

2ภ).-! % FV /6% n *7&-!(%- .- 2. ภ/012/ -% i % %%01 - !$ภ! % (PV) ) 3.  !ภ'()*+, -. !/ ( Expected return ) H, /+%0'.( ! +%'.- 2  ' .,. (i) *02/ : %  +%G./'  02!0-& !! % " I : 02/ภ/ภ)*,!D%6%Dภ :%0).-H, /+%+%% %ภ/ "  ' .,." + ,: ภ0G ),!D%6%Dภ%1%K + %9! %,!D%6%L'!ภ%01+% MN!96(- 02L ภ 0G).-H, /+%0 +%% %ภ/ "  ' .,." ภDภ.!ภ,

6%ภ,!D%+ ,GL'!ภ+(,!0& !! %01!ภ%ภ,!D% (  %& !-& !) +,G! %ภA-2:.!%1% + ,GL'!ภG0H, /+%0'.( !ภ/'O,024 !%19(%ภ(WACC) & !H, /+%0'.( ! & !1!%ภ,!D%+,G-(%01 • %ภ,!D%0H, /+%0'.( !ภ/ k • -(%010H, /+%0'.( !':  . ภ/0126(-*5% r (3)

      

L.20  

= .  %& !! %,!D% +,G  

  

 

.  %& !! %ภA-


4.  !ภNPV 8 9 :;.<-*/<*8 ภ)! = 8 (/> NPV (net present value) ': ภ*02/02/A,'*CD/% D & !ภG+ ! % .06 &-)* (input) +,G! ภภ (output)   

                   

! %,!D%

(4)

L.20  !  !    ! "#$ = ภG+ ! % .6%*7 1 4N!*70 n ?  ภG+ ! % .6%+ ,G*7 /L .- 2  '!0ภ/ g +,GL'!ภ0 2D , .ภ,, %  & ภA & ! Gordon growth model 96(-0 !2&N1%L.2 NPV G0'ภ/   



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! %,!D%

(5)

%ภ,!D%G . %6,!D%: NPV > 0  ! %,!D% ( )

 '   ! %,!D% ( )

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ภ(5)

  

 ( ! %,!D%

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(6)

9(/ภ,!D%6%L'!ภ0 NPV ภภ 0 96(-%ภ,!D%A- Nภ(: %M:1 & !,.'"G L.2*ภ4- 2ภ).-ภG+ ! % .6% %' ภ/  !  !    ! "#$ .- 2H, /+%0'.( !& ! *+ -& !D%ภ/ WACC G - !6-! %,!D%6%! @4N! ,-. + 4-,: ภ,!D%6%L'!ภ%016-! %

,!D%6%! @"02! d! %,!D%e %1% (: +*,' !2K ภ3': L'!ภ0G,!D%6(-H, /+%ภภH, /+%0'.( ! (WACC) & !%ภ,!D%%% !


5.  !ภIntrinsic Value Intrinsic Value ( /0) ': ! %,!D% A! D.0%ภ,!D%2 2": M:1 %"2g%1% (: G./! % ,!D%6%*CD/%096(- NPV = 0 "G0! %,!D%G./%01L'!ภG0H, /+%ภ/H, /+%0 '.( ! (WACC) " .0 4-%ภ,!D%2ภภ%01G96(- NPV< 0 ) . %6,!D% 6(+%'6% (5)

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! %,!D%  )

1  ! %,!D%  



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(7)

"G'(D-% (P) )).- G- % Intrinsic Value 2A , . ,96(- Value investor (3%L ภ 6%ภ ภ' !'!.- 2ภ(/> 8 ภ ภ-. > (P) *ภB Intrinsic Value ( 23 ) ภC MN!G96(â&#x20AC;˘ 4: ) -ภ3).-H, /+%ภภ /-% â&#x20AC;˘ &2  ภ3).-' (capital gain) "G ,.G2 M:1 (D-% A!: 2K%ภG! '(D-% (P) ภ/ Intrinsic Value ( /0)

'9 : % Intrinsic Value 0'9% I).-G*5% !ภ3  :  j%*5% !


6. ภE:; (.B > ,++ (*/. ( ;/ EF '(  j% â&#x20AC;˘ Dภ.9% %!%  %: ! , .ภ,(- 2 â&#x20AC;˘ Dภ0! %! ภภภ/! %*C%H,   4 â&#x20AC;˘ ! %*C%H, /L .- 2  ภ/ g â&#x20AC;˘ )0ภภA-(%012: %,!D% WACC = k ภภ0 (7) G).-A,'(D-%ภ/ 1 

4 

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(8)

7. Intrinsic Value ภ!+ PE ratio  j% â&#x20AC;˘ Dภ.9% %!%  %: ! , .ภ,(- 2 â&#x20AC;˘ Dภ0! %! ภภภ/ภ9)   5 â&#x20AC;˘ ภ9)'!0 , g = 0 â&#x20AC;˘ )0ภภA-(%012: %,!D% WACC = k ภภ0 (7) G).-A,'(D-%ภ/ 5  1   5 

1 

(9)

.!%1%' P/E ratio N!+ .!6(-(3%  ? +I!ภJ)B*; <-*/;Bภ!+ E )(* EK)(* L) ' A! D.0&2 M:1 G*5%ภ0& !ภ9)

 2! 4-%ภ,!D%0 -%D%! %D% (k) ภ/. ภ/012%'0 3 % ' A! D.0%ภ,!D%'%%01 2 2M:1 (D-%Gภ/ 1/0.03 = 33.3 & !ภ9) (CPALL I %0 30/8 0 PE ภ/ 33.27 )


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D  'DI 2ก).- )-02 ก %01 )- %%01%ก3 1%.... + 4-'DI 2ก).-)- %1 ก %0.1 ... )- %%01%ก32

(2'   " I(" & !'DI !(ก 096(-0 1% 02 0.0 0 0Dก&g 0 D& &N%1 ...." (, !*Ap DL .(% !*p"!.... . D/,%0

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