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Fe b r u a r y 2 0 1 9

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q4 2018*

+5.8%

+15.8%

OVERALL SALES

+5.8% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+5.9% DISCRETIONARY

+8.5% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+3.6% ECOMMERCE

+12.5% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2019

GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING CONTINUES ON UPWARD TREND TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)

122

125

+5.8% YoY

120 115

118

+4.7% YoY

110 105 100

DUBLIN

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

95

IRELAND

Total consumer spend in the Dublin economy grew by 5.8% (SA) YoY in the fourth quarter of 2018. Dublin continues to exceed the National level, which recorded a YoY increase of 4.7% (SA).

“Ireland and Dublin both produced solid retail sales growth at the end of 2018. Dublin recorded 5.8% YoY growth (SA) for the first time in Q4 2018 while Ireland as a whole hit 4.7% YoY growth (SA). Spending on Entertainment picked up for a second consecutive quarter with growth of 12.5% (SA).  Tourism spend in Dublin recorded strong growth of 15.8% YoY in Q4 2018. Keeping this momentum going will be a challenge in the first half of 2019.

Both the Dublin and National series are maintaining strong upward trends YoY with the highest levels of consumer spending recorded in Q4 2018 since the series began in Q1 2014. On a quarterly basis data for Q4 2018 show Dublin growing by 1.4% QoQ (SA) and Nationally registering QoQ growth of 1.9% (SA). However, it is clear that both Dublin and Ireland are performing well.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+5.8%

121.8

+1.4%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q4 2018

100 = Q1 2014

Q4 2018

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

STEADY YoY GROWTH IN HOUSEHOLD GOODS A REFLECTION OF POSITIVE CONSUMER SENTIMENT

170

180

+3.6% YoY

170 160

169

150

+13.1% YoY

140 130

In Q4 2018 Dublin Consumer Spending was positively influenced by growth in all four sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse. Growth was particularly strong in Entertainment sales, increasing 12.5% (SA) YoY. Spend on Entertainment Nationally was similarly strong at 9% YoY. Sales of household goods – which can be interpreted as a proxy for consumer confidence – grew by 8.5% YoY in Dublin and 4.5% (SA) Nationally. Q4 2018 saw eCommerce continue to grow with YoY figures for Dublin increasing by 3.6% (SA) and Nationally by 13.1% (SA).

120 110 100

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

IRELAND

| February 2019

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

125

121

125

124

120

+5.8% YoY

120

+5.9% YoY

115

115 110

IRELAND

113

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT

147

150

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

+2.2% YoY

Q1 14

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95 Q1 15

95

Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

Q2 14

+1.5% YoY

Q2 18

116

110

153

160

+12.5% YoY

+8.5% YoY

150

140

140

130

136 +9.0%

142

130

YoY

120

+4.5% YoY

120 110

IRELAND

IRELAND

DUBLIN

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

3

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

90 Q3 14

90

Q2 14

100

Q1 14

100

Q2 14

110


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2019

YoY GROWTH IN TOURISM SPEND EXCEEDS 15% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE Q1 2016 Growth in tourism expenditure in Dublin in Q4 2018 was largely driven by Chinese, German and US tourists. Total YoY growth of 15.8% (SA) was recorded in Dublin in Q4 2018, the largest annual increase since Q1 2016. Expenditure by Chinese tourists showed the strongest growth in Q4, increasing by 18.9% YoY and achieving its fourth consecutive quarter of double digit growth, following eight consecutive quarters of negative YoY growth.

Expenditure by French (+16.7%) and US (+13.4%) tourists also showed strong growth. The UK tourism market is starting to show signs of recovery. Following four quarters of negative YoY growth in expenditure by UK tourists in Dublin has been positive, albeit relatively low, for the past three quarters. In Q4 2018, expenditure in this market grew by 3.2% YoY. Nationally (incl. Dublin) YoY tourism spend was up 10.1% (SA) in Q4 2018, driven by strong growth in US (+16.1%), German (+14.3%) and Chinese (+10%) tourist expenditure. While all tourist segments increased YoY in Q4 2018, the growth in expenditure by French (+2.6%) and UK (+0.9%) tourists was much less pronounced than the other segments.

This is likely linked to a recent drive by Tourism Ireland to increase Chinese tourists in Ireland as well as the introduction of nonstop direct flights from Beijing. Beijing-based Hainan Airlines have also announced a second direct route from Dublin to Chinese hi-tech hub Shenzhen will begin on 25 February 2019.

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2018 (SA) OVERALL

+10.1% +15.8%

+0.9% +3.2%

+16.1% +13.4%

+14.3% +16.7%

+2.6% +6.8%

+10% +18.9%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

Q1 2014 = 100

220

220

210

210

200

200

190

190

164.8

180

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

176.6

180

170

170

160

160

150

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100 All

UK

USA

Germany

France

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

4

China

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