Page 1

Dublin Economic Monitor issue 13

may 2018

In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI KBC/ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE DUBLIN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AMID HOUSING CHALLENGES

PAGE 12

PAGE 14

By Keelin Fagan, Head of Dublin, Failte Ireland

By Frank Nevin, Director of Economic Development, South Dublin County Council

DUBLIN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT UPDATE - DUBLIN'S OUTDOORS

TRANSFORMING THE INNOVATION LANDSCAPE FOR SOUTH DUBLIN


WELCOME

HIGHLIGHTS Dublin's unemployment rate stands at 6.4% (sa) of Q4 2017 Residential rents in Dublin continue to exert pressure in the Q4 2017 following 17 quarters of growth in excess of 5.5%. Dublin Area in Q4 2017 following 17 quarters of growth in excess of 5.5% Residential property prices register YoY growth in excess of 12% for the first time since May 2015. Public transport trips rose by close to 9% in Q4 2017 with 54.6 million trips undertaken in the quarter. Total cargo handled at Dublin Port reached a record high with over 9.3 million tonnes (SA) handled in Q1 2018. Housing completions in Dublin fell to 388 in January 2018 highlighting continued volatility over the past number of months. Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse growth in consumer spend in the Dublin economy moderated slightly in Q1 2018 with a 4.8% YoY growth. Overall Tourism Spend increased by 9% YoY driven by US and French markets in particular. The Dublin MARKIT PMI Recorded further sharp expansion in output well above 50. The rate of job creation accelerated to 58.5 while Q1 experienced the fastest rise in new business orders since Q2 2015. KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment YoY the overall Dublin Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 14.1 index points in Q1 2018, driven primarily by increasingly optimism regarding the general economic outlook. image: cycling in dublin's outdoors (gaelforce dublin 2018) by crispin rodwell dublinsoutdoors.ie.

2 //

Welcome to the MAY 2018 issue of the Dublin Economic Monitor

T

he Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of particular interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EYDKM Economic Advisory Services, with KBC/ESRI delivering the Dublin Consumer Sentiment data and IHS MARKIT delivering the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending and tourism expenditure patterns. The spending pulse is derived from anonymized and aggregated card transaction data as well as other means of payments such as cash and cheques. This data helps the city develop new insights on the spending patterns Dublin City Council

South Dublin County Council

of Dubliners and tourists, as well as comparing the Capital's performance to the whole of Ireland (see centrefold supplement). The special articles this quarter include one from Keelin Fagan, Head of Dublin, Failte Ireland who gives an update on Dublin’s Tourism Development and how they are working with the local authorities to diversify Dublin’s appeal (p.12). Frank Nevin, Director of Economic Development, South Dublin County Council discusses options to ‘transform the innovation landscape’ for South Dublin (p.14). We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor online at www.dublineconomy.ie. The next release will be published online on August 2nd 2018. Fingal County Council

Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council

This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.


ECONOMY

GLOBAL ECONOMY

NATIONAL ECONOMY

According to OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook the global economy will continue to strengthen in 2018 and 2019, with growth forecasts of close to 4 per cent in each year compared to 3.7% in 2017. New tax reductions and spending increases in the United States will help US GDP grow by approximately 3% annually in the next two years. In March the Federal Reserve voted to increase interest rates for the sixth time since December 2015 and subsequently increased the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5% - 1.75%. The monetary policy stance remains accommodative, supporting strong labour market conditions in the US and a sustained return to 2% inflation.

Preliminary estimates from the CSO indicate that GDP (volume) increased by 7.8% in 2017 while GNP increased at a rate of 6.6% for the same period. These estimates place Ireland as the fastest growing economy in the European Union for the fourth year in a row. The Irish economy recorded equally strong growth of 3.9% when measured via Modified Domestic Demand – a new measure introduced by the CSO which removes the distorting effects of intangible assets, contract manufacturing and aircraft leasing. An important barometer of how the domestic economy is performing is personal consumption expenditure, which grew by 1.9% in 2017. Industrial output increased by 8.9% while investment dropped by 22.3% in the year on foot of lower levels of intellectual property imports, compared to the exceptionally high levels recorded in 2016. The key sectors contributing to growth continue to be Information & Communication and Construction, both registering growth of close to 17% in 2017. Industry (excl. construction) made the most positive contribution in Q4 2017, rising 8.9%, within which manufacturing grew by 9.1%.

euro: sterling exchange rate €1.35

€1.30

€1.25 Conservative Party Conference

ireland annual growth rate, %age change

General Election Result

27%

€1.20 24% 21%

€1.15

18%

€1.10

15%

Article 50 Triggered

Apr 18

Mar 18

Jan 18

Feb 18

Dec 17

Oct 17

Nov 17

Sep 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Jun 17

Apr 17

May 17

Mar 17

Jan 17

Feb 17

Dec 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Sep 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

12%

Jun 16

€1.05

Brexit Referendum Result

6%

source: central bank of ireland.

Growth in the euro area is set to remain robust although the OECD forecasts a moderation in growth levels from 2.5% in 2017 to 2.1% by 2019. Accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, improving labour markets and high levels of business confidence are all helping to boost demand. Of the countries listed in the table below, the UK is forecast to remain the weakest performer with uncertainty surrounding Brexit expected to impact growth prospects into the medium-term. By 2019, GDP growth of just over 1% is forecast on the back of slowing consumer expenditure and business investment. A transition agreement was secured in early March, subject to certain conditions regarding the Irish border with the UK, which will lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU.

major economies gdp growth forecasts

global

2017 %

2018 %f

2019 %f

3.7

3.9

3.9

uk

1.7

1.3

1.1

us

2.3

2.9

2.8

euro area

2.5

2.3

2.1

germany

2.5

2.4

2.2

japan

1.7

1.5

1.1

china

6.9

6.7

6.4

india

6.6

7.2

7.5

source: oecd, march 2018

9%

3% 0% -3%

2011

2012

GDP

2013

GNP

2014

2015

2016

2017

Modified Total Domestic Demand

source: central statistics office.

Brexit remains one of the key risks to growth in the Irish economy. Under the terms of the aforementioned transition agreement the UK must adhere to a ‘legal backstop’ plan whereby Northern Ireland will remain in full regulatory alignment with the Republic, and therefore the EU, to avoid a hard border.

irish macroeconomic growth forecasts

gnp gdp private consumption public expenditure investment exports imports unemployment rate employment cpi inflation

2017 %E

2018 %f

2019 %f

6.6 7.8 1.9 1.8 -22.3 6.9 -6.2

4.9 4.9 2.5 2.6 8.0 6.3 7.1

4.1 3.8 2.2 2.6 7.6 5.4 6.1

5.8 2.2 0.2

5.1 2.0 1.6

4.6 2.0 1.9

sources: ey-dkm forecasts e: estimate f: forecast

// 3


DUBLIN ECONOMY

DUBLIN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AMID HOUSING CHALLENGES

employment in dublin continues to rise but house and rental prices remain a key issue Dublin’s labour market ended on a high note in 2017 with a record 672,000 Dublin residents in employment. This marks an increase of just over 10,000 in the year since Q4 2016. Human Health & Social Work continues to be one of the key driver of employment in Dublin with 17.5% growth recorded in the year. Equally growth in Construction has been considerable with an additional 17.3% employed in the sector in the past 12 months. Rising rents in the Dublin market continue to exert pressure further afield. In Dublin, average rents stood at €1,500 at the end of 2017, the highest recorded since the series began in 2007. This represents a 5.2% YoY increase in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). Outside the GDA pressure is also being felt with YoY of 7.5% and 7.1% respectively. Increasing property prices in Dublin also show little sign of abating with YoY growth of 12.1% in January 2018, the strongest YoY growth recorded in the Capital since May 2015. With housing completions less than 400 in January (seasonally adjusted) it is difficult to see how these pressures on house prices and rents will ease in the short term at least. That being said, other key indicators continue to show a thriving Capital city. Public transport trips in Dublin, for example, stood at 55.5 million in Q4 2017, a YoY increase of 5.8 million passengers. This figure is expected to rise further in the coming quarters with the introduction of the Luas Cross-City. Similarly, passenger arrivals through Dublin Airport in November 2016 were at their highest level since the series began in 2006 with 1.25 million passengers. Relatedly, the occupancy rate in Dublin hotels rose to close to 86% in March 2018 and the market should be boosted further with some 3,000 additional rooms currently in construction. According to KBC/ESRI the overall Dublin Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 14.1 index points, YoY, driven by cautious optimism regarding general economic outlook. Austin Hughes, Chief Economist at KBC Bank Ireland, explains:

“A more positive view of economic prospects was the main driver of a modest improvement in Dublin consumer sentiment in early 2018. The mood of consumers in the capital at present might be described as one of guarded optimism. There is a clear sense that conditions are improving but a still uncertain outlook and limited

4 //

gains in household finances mean Dublin consumers are cautious rather than carefree.” Improvements have also fed through to strong growth in retail sales (+4.8% YoY), while Touirsm spend is also up +9% YoY driven largely by US, French and China markets. in early 2018 as measured by the Mastercard Dublin SpendingPulse. According to Michael McNamara, Global Head of SpendingPulse, Mastercard reflects the improvements in the first quarter 2018:

"It is unusual when you can say that you have nothing but good news to report! Both Ireland and Dublin saw increases in retail sales growth in Q1 2018. Dublin’s 5.1% growth rate was impressive with virtually all areas growing including Entertainment turning from a negative QoQ in Q4 2017 to positive growth in Q1 2018. The eCommerce channel had a mild deceleration in yearover-year growth, though still showed impressive growth in the mid-teens, in both Dublin and across Ireland” Dublin's IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a sharp expansion in output including the acceleration in job creation new business orders. Andrew Harker, notes:

“The Dublin economy started 2018 in positive fashion, maintaining a strong rate of output growth. The rise was slightly weaker than at the end of 2017 as a result of a slowdown in the pace of expansion in manufacturing production, but given this can at least partly be attributed to disruption caused by Storm Emma in March, a rebound here is likely in Q2. Indeed, demand conditions show no signs of cooling off, with the latest rise in new business the strongest since mid-2015. The rate of job creation also picked up at the start of the year as companies responded to trends in new orders. Outside Dublin the picture across the Rest of Ireland was also rosy amid broad-based improvements in client demand not only in Ireland, but across much of Europe at present. Given this favourable back-drop, the stage is set for another successful year for the Dublin economy.”


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

further boost in numbers employed in dublin

18%

construction sector returns to the fore in employment growth services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q4 ' 17 589.2 +16.0 78.6 -2.8

source: cso lfs, seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

Employment levels in Dublin continue to strengthen with public sector employment registering strong YoY growth of 6.1% in Q4 2017. Growth in the private sector was slightly more subdued with YoY growth of 1.2% in the same period. Construction grew by 17.3% YoY, surpassed only by human health & social work. Industry continues to act as a drag on the market with a YoY contraction of 12.1% in Q4 2017, likely due to recent changes in statistical methodologies.

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

Dublin

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

Q4 13

Q2 13

Q4 12

Q2 12

Q4 11

0%

Q2 11

2%

Q4 10

Dublin’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased marginally in Q4 2017 to 6.4% in spite of the strengthening labour market and an additional 10,500 employees added to the workforce in the quarter. YoY however, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.4pp. The observed downward trend in Dublin’s unemployment rate continues to be mirrored at the national level with both rates now 6.4%. This is the first time since Q2 2007 that the Dublin and national unemployment rates have been the same.

Dublin Max 14.2%

Q2 10

source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

National Max 15.9%

16%

Q4 09

q4 ' 17 6.4% +0.4 671.9 +10.6

Q2 09

dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa)

National

source: cso lfs. dublin seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM

employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 800

Max: 668,000

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q4 08

Q4 09

Q4 10

Q4 11

Private Sector Services

Private Sector Services

Q4 12

Q4 13

Public Sector

Public sector

Q4 14 Industry

Q4 15

Q4 16

Q4 17

Construction

Industry

Construction

source: cso lfs seasonally adjusted note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding

// 5


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS property price growth remains strong

residential property price index (2005 = 100) 140

70 60

Dublin

Jul 17

Jan 18

Jul 16

Jan 17

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 10

Jan 11

Jul 09

Jan 10

40

Jul 08

50

National Excl Dublin

source: cso.

residential rents € per month €1,550

Dublin Max: €1,511

€1,450 €1,350 €1,250

source: rtb.

€1,150

The YoY growth rate in average rents for residential properties in Dublin has moderated slightly in Q4 2017, following 17 quarters of growth in excess of 5.5%. Average rents grew by 5.3% in the year and now stand at €1,511, have been following a strong upward trend for the past six years. Rental pressures in the Capital have been feeding into the GDA where rents are now just over €1,100, 8% higher than when RTB records began in Q3 2007.

€1,050 €950 €850 €750

Dublin

Greater Dublin Area (ex Dublin)

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

Q4 13

Q2 13

Q4 12

Q2 12

€550

Q4 11

€650 Q2 11

q4 ' 17 1,511 +75

80

Q4 10

dublin avg residential rent € per month year on year change €

90

Q2 10

increasing dublin rents continue to exert pressure on the gda

100

Jan 09

Growth in residential property prices show no sign of abating with YoY growth in Dublin of 12.1% in January 2018, the strongest growth recorded in the Capital since May 2015. The property price index in Dublin now stands at 103.1 which is the highest point since late 2008. Continued constraints on supply are resulting in similarly strong growth rates outside of Dublin over the past 12 months with YoY price increases of 12.5% recoded in January 2018.

110

Q4 09

source: cso. note: this index includes both cash- and mortgage-based transactions.

Dublin Max 124.9

120

Jan 08

property price index dublin year on year % change property price index national excl dublin year on year % change

130

Q2 09

jan ' 18 103.1 +12.1 101.8 +12.5

Outside GDA

source: rtb. note: gda (ex dublin) is kildare, meath and wicklow.

marked decline in housing completions with continued volitility in commencements

2,000 1,800

6 //

1,000 Commencements Max: 870

800 600 400

Completions

Commencements

source: dhplg. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM. note: Completions data has been adjusted to accommodate a 2014 change in the method of data collection

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

0

Jul 09

200 Jan 09

Data available to January 2018 shows a marked MoM decline in housing completions (seasonally adjusted) in Dublin. In the month, a total of 388 houses were completed, representing a close to 50% decline on December’s figure. The number of completions in January is largely unchanged from 12 months previous when 387 houses were completed in the Capital. Commencements are also little changed in the year with 4% YoY growth recorded to stand at 468 commencements in January 2018.

1,200

Jul 08

source: dhplg. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

1,400

Jul 07

jan ' 18 468 +20 388 +1

Completions Max: 1,750

1,600

Jan 08

total house commencements (sa) year on year change total house completions (sa) year on year change

dublin housing commencements & completions (sa)


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS office rents maintian peaks in q1 2018

130

q1 '18 118.2 +4.0 114.0 +3.6

City Centre Max = 118.2

120

South Suburbs Max = 114

110 100 90 80 70 60

City Centre

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

Q1 10

40

Q3 09

50

Q1 09

Following a boost in city centre office rents at the end of 2017, YoY growth has moderated in Q1 2018 increasing by 4.0%. In the south suburbs YoY growth was marginally lower at 3.6%. In both areas, rents remained unchanged QoQ and are now 4% higher than they were at the previous peak in Q2 2008. Office rents in north and west suburbs continue to recover and registered YoY growth of 12% and 6% respectively in Q1.

Q3 08

source: CBRE

Q1 08

city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change

dublin office rents index (2006 = 100)

South Suburbs

source: cbre.

marginal decline in office vacancy rates in q1 2018 vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points

dublin office space vacancy rates % 30%

q1 '18 5.3 -0.5 7.9 -1.8

Dublin Suburbs Max = 25% Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%

25% 20% 15%

source: cbre.

public transport usage continues on strong upward trend public transport million trips (sa) year on year change million trips (sa)

q4 '17 54.6 +4.5

source: nta seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

Passenger trips on Dublin's four public transport systems rose sharply in Q4 2017 with 54.6 million trips (seasonally adjusted) undertaken in the quarter, representing a YoY increase of 8.9% or 4.5 million trips. Much of this was driven by growth in Dublin Bus trips which recorded growth of 9.8% YoY. Passenger trips on the Luas grew 5.7% YoY, however it is expected that growth will be boosted further in 2018 with the opening of the Luas Cross City in December.

10%

Dublin 2/4

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

Q1 10

0%

Q3 09

5%

Q1 09

Overall office vacancy in Dublin fell further in Q1 2018 to 5.9% from 6.1% in Q4 2017. In Dublin’s suburbs office vacancy declined by 1.8pp YoY in Q1 2018. However, on a quarterly basis the postcode recorded a 0.2pp increase, the first such increase since Q2 2016. Vacancies in the Dublin 2/4 postcodes declined marginally by 0.5pp YoY in Q1 2018. In both postcodes "computers and high-tech occupiers" continue to account for the largest proportion of leasing activity.

Dublin Suburbs

source: cbre.

public transport million trips (sa) 60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Bus Éireann

Bus Éireann

Dublin Bus

Dublin Bus

Irish Rail

Luas

Irish Rail

Luas

source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm note: this series has been re-calibrated since the last issue

// 7


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa) 1,350

nov '17 1,253.4 +75.4

1,250

Following a slight decline in October 2017, passenger arrivals at Dublin Airport reached a new peak of 1.25 million (seasonally adjusted) in November. According to Dublin Airport, growth in traffic is a result of a combination of 14 new services and extra capacity on 40 existing routes. Passenger numbers are expected to increase further with the introduction of Dublin’s first direct services to Beijing and Hong Kong. YoY there was an increase of just over 75,000 passenger arrivals (+6.4% increase).

950

1,050

850 750 Severe Winter Weather

650

Nov 17

Mar 17

Jul 16

Nov 15

Mar 15

Jul 14

Nov 13

Mar 13

Jul 12

Nov 11

Mar 11

550

Jul 10

Icelandic Ash Cloud

Nov 09

source: cso, seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

1,150

Mar 09

total arrivals '000s (SA) year on year change '000s (sa)

Max: 1,253

Jul 08

passenger arrivals at dublin airport continue to rise

source: cso. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

8 //

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

Q1 10

5.5

source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) €150 Maximum: €141

€140

€130

€120

€110

source: str. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

Mar 18

Jan 18

Nov 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

May 17

Mar 17

Jan 17

Nov 16

Sep 16

Jul 16

€90

May 16

€100

Jan 16

In March 2018 occupancy rates in Dublin hotels rose to 85.8% (seasonally adjusted) surpassing the previous peak set in November 2015. Average Daily Rates for rooms in Dublin peaked in March at €141, a 6.3% increase on March 2017 and the highest daily rate recorded since the series began. STR in their latest European Hotel Market overview report identified Dublin as on of only five key European markets with in excess of 3,000 hotel rooms in construction (Dublin currently is estimated to have 31 projects with 3,152 hotel rooms in construction).

Min: 6.4 million tonnes

6.0

Mar 16

source: str. seasonally adjusted by EY-DKM.

6.5

Nov 15

mar ' 18 85.8% +3.4 98.8 0.1%

7.0

Sep 15

hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, 2011=100) year on year change %

7.5

Jul 15

dublin hotel rates surpass 2015 peak levels

8.0

Q3 09

The total cargo handled at Dublin Port reached a new high in Q1 2018 with over 9.3 million tonnes (seasonally adjusted) handled in the first three months of the year. This is equivalent to a 5.3% YoY increase or just under 500,000 tonnes. Both exports and imports continue to contribute substantially to overall growth with exports in particular increasing by 12.7% QoQ and by just over 9% YoY.

8.5

Q1 09

Source: Dublin Port. Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM. Note: imports and exports may not add to total throughput due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.

Max: 9.3 million tonnes

9.0

Mar 15

q1 ' 18 4.01 0.33 5.63 0.44

dublin port exports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa) dublin port imports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa)

dublin port tonnage million tonnes (sa) 9.5

May 15

record throughput at dublin port in q1 2018


Ma y 2 0 1 8

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2018*

+4.8%

+9%

OVERALL SALES

+5.1% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+4.1% DISCRETIONARY

+10.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+14.9% ECOMMERCE

+2.3% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2018

TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN CONTINUES ON UPWARD TREND TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 116

120

+4.8% YoY

115

116

+5.2% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q4 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Consumer spending in the Dublin economy moderated slightly in the first quarter of 2018. Overall expenditure increased by 4.8% YoY and by 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2018. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which QoQ growth has been positive and continues to reflect the strengthening Dublin economy.

Both Ireland and Dublin saw increases in retail sales growth in Q1 2018. Dublin’s 4.8% growth rate was impressive with virtually all areas growing including Entertainment turning from a negative growth in Q4 2017 to positive growth in Q1 2018. The eCommerce channel had a mild deceleration in year-over-year growth, though still showed impressive growth in the mid-teens, in both Dublin and across Ireland.

Nationally, the sales index has maintained a strong upward trend in Q1 2018 growth in QoQ growth of 1.5%. Expenditure in Ireland (including Dublin) registered growth of 5.2% YoY in the first quarter and represents the strongest YoY growth since the series began in Q1 2014. Indeed total Irish consumer spending has increased on a consistent basis over the past four years and the results from the most recent quarter indicate that this trend is continuing.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+4.8%

115.8

+0.3%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q1 2018

QOQ

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB- SECTORS

168

+14.9% YoY

160

The YoY expansion in Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2018 was positively influenced by expenditure growth in each of the four main sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse.

150

151

+13.4% YoY

Robust growth occurred in the category of household goods, with just under 11% YoY growth. Following YoY growth of 8.3% at the end of 2017 this continues to signify an increase in consumer confidence and willingness by Dublin consumers to spend on significant household items.Entertainment, which had registered YoY growth of 1.4% in Q4 2017 expanded further in the first quarter of 2018 with YoY growth of 1.4%.

120 110 100

IRELAND

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

Expenditure in eCommerce increased by a further 14.9% YoY following growth of 16.2% in Q4 2017. Retail sales in eCommerce in the Dublin region are far in excess of that observed at a national level

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

116

120

116

120

+4.1% YoY 115

+5.1% YoY

115

115

110

+5.0% YoY

112

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

+5.0% YoY

Q1 14

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95

Q1 15

95 Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

Q2 14

110

Q1 18

130

Q4 17

140

Q3 17

METHOD: ECOMMERCE 170

| May 2018

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

131

+2.3% YoY

135

160

130

147

+10.9% YoY

150

125

140

127

120

+2.6% YoY

115

130

138

+10.1% YoY

120

110

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

3

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

90 Q3 14

95 Q2 14

100

Q1 14

100

Q2 14

110

105


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2018

TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: FRENCH, US AND CHINESE DRIVE GROWTH IN TOURISM SPEND In Dublin, spending by tourists from the main overseas tourist markets grew by 9% YoY in Q1 2018. Strong YoY growth rates, in excess of 10% in the US and Chinese markets, and 20% in the French market, have all contributed to the boost tourism spending. Quarterly growth rates in these markets have been equally strong with the Chinese market, in particular, registering just over 20% QoQ growth in Q1 (seasonally adjusted).

fifth consecutive quarter in which expenditure by UK tourists in Dublin has fallen. At a national level tourism expenditure remains slightly more robust than that observed in the Capital with 9.5% YoY growth recorded in Q1 2018. As observed in the Capital, tourism expenditure from the French market was a key driver of growth at a national level, registering 18% YoY growth in the first quarter of 2018. Notable boosts were recorded in both the German and Chinese markets over the same period with YoY growth rates in Q1 2018 of 11.7% and 12.4% respectively – compared to growth rates of 1% and 3.4% in the final quarter of 2017. Spending by UK tourists across the country improved in Q1 2018, increasing by 1.8% YoY. This follows on from negative YoY growth rates recorded in each of the four quarters of 2017 and may indicate that Dublin has suffered more adversely from the weakening of sterling.

This marks a notable boost in spending from the Chinese market since the final quarter of 2017 when an 11% QoQ decline was recorded. The UK market, which accounts for a large proportion of visitors to the Capital (55% of all passengers arriving into Dublin Airport in September 2017 were from Britain, a decline of 1.3% YoY), recorded a further decline in expenditure of just over 4% YoY. With the depreciation of sterling in recent years, trips to Dublin by UK tourists have become relatively more expensive. The YoY decline observed in Q1 2018 marks the

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2018 (SA) OVERALL

+9.5% +9%

+1.8% -4.2%

+14.7% +16.4%

+11.7% +3.5%

+18% +20.4%

+12.4% +12.3%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

190

180

180

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100 UK

151.5

160

150

All

USA

Germany

France

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

Q1 2014 = 100

170

151.7

160

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

200

190

170

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

200

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

100

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

4

China


DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS

COST OF LIVING FACTORS DO LITTLE TO DAMPEN DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL STANDING Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). Dublin ranked 2nd place in the fDi Top 25 European Cities and Regions of the Future for 2018 leaving the Capital one place below London and ahead of key competitor cities for Brexit projects including Amsterdam (4th) and Frankfurt (7th). The city has maintained its 4th place ranking in the top ten cities for expansions and co-location projects in the fDi Reinvestment Ranking for 2018. The ranking also places Ireland 10th in the top ten countries for expansions and co-location projects for the second consecutive year. Dublin remains in 34th Place in Mercer’s 20th annual Quality of Living survey, leaving it the highest ranked city across the UK and

Ireland. London, the next highest ranking, is placed 41st in the survey. Commenting on the results, Consultant at Mercer Ireland, Noel O’Connor said: “Some of the key factors placing Dublin in 34th place in the survey include a stable political environment, lower levels of air pollution and a strong socio-cultural environment. The results demonstrate that Dublin remains an attractive location for international businesses to send their employees." The Global Talent Competitiveness Index, which takes into account the business and labour landscape, market openness, education and lifestyle, ranked Dublin 7th and Ireland 13th in its 2018 index. Uunder the indicator which captures R&D expenditure, ICT access and presence of Forbes Global 2000 companies, Dublin ranked 1st, followed by Stockholm and Zurich.

Ireland’s Capital moved six places up the ranking in the Economists Intelligence Unit Worldwide Cost of Living survey. In 2018 Dublin was ranked in 19th place from 25th position in 2017. Dublin is now 9% more expensive to live in than London due, in part, to the sharp decline of sterling and the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Although recognised as a ‘global leader’ for both its broad and deep financial services activities, Dublin fell one position in the Global Financial Centres Index, from 30th to 31st position. This represents a marked deterioration from the top 10 ranking the city enjoyed in 2009, but a significant improvement on the 2014 ranking of 70th. Amongst western European financial centres Dublin ranks 8th, ahead of Madrid and Stockholm, and has also been identified as one of the “15 centres likely to become more significant”.

d u b l i n ' s l at e s t i n t e r n at i o n a l r a n k i n g s SOURCE

BENCHMARK CRITERIA

YEAR

RANKING

CHANGE‡

2018

2

Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI)

Business environment, financial sector development, infrastructure, human capital, reputational and general factors; online survey

2018

31

fDi Intelligence Reinvesting Ranking 2018

Attracting expansion and co-location projects

2018

4

PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe

Real estate investment, development

2018

7

-

2018

7

-

2017

6 66

fDi Intelligence Global Cities and Regions of the Future Socio-economic

IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook Rankings (Ireland)

Regulatory, market and business/labour landscape, external and internal openness, education and access to growth opportunities and, sustainability and lifestyle Economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure

Mercer 2017 Cost of Living Survey

Cost of consumer goods and services

2017

Mercer 2018 Quality of Living Survey

Environmental/socio-economic

2018

34

QS World University Rankings

University quality

2018

88*

2018

8

2018

19

2017

47

-

2017

5

-

Global Talent Competitiveness Index

World Economic Forum Inclusive Development Index The Economist Intelligence Unit Worldwide Cost of Living 2018 InterNations Expat City Ranking 2017 Colliers International Cities of Influence

Growth and development, inclusion, intergenerational equity and sustainability Compares more than 400 individual prices across 160 products and services Quality of urban living, getting settled, urban work life, and finance & housing. Economic size and orientation, talent pools, affordability and country risk

* tcd. ‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.

// 9


KBC / ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX 2018 sentiment strengthens in q1

Dublin sentiment overall 180

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Dublin

National excl. dublin

120

118 +7.9 +2.0

134 +5.9 +6.5

110

National

dublin excl. dublin 200.6 +20.6 +6.9

Q3 10

40

Q1 10

60

dublin

rapid increase in positive consumer expectations q1 2018 year on year change quarter on quarter change

80

National excl. Dublin

Base 2003 = 100

130

199.0 +11.0 +7.7

100 90 80 70 60

Dublin

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

40

Q3 10

50

Q1 10

The Index of Current Conditions in the Dublin region rose by 2.0 index points QoQ in Q1 2018 relative to outside Dublin rising by 6.5 index points. This has led to further expanding of the spread in positive sentiment between the two regions. Attitudes both with respect to present financial circumstances and major household purchases saw far weaker quarterly growth in the Dublin region, possibly a result of differences between the two regions in terms of changes in the cost of living.

consumer expectations

100

Q3 09

q1 2018 year on year change quarter on quarter change

120

Dublin current conditions

broad improvement in positivity towards current conditions current conditions

140

Q3 09

Similar increases in positive sentiment occurred across both regions, suggesting the benefits of continued economic recovery remain well distributed on a regional basis. YoY, the overall Dublin Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 14.1 index points, rising by 8.8 index points outside of Dublin. Improved outlooks regarding the general economy and unemployment were the main drivers across both regions. However, respondents outside Dublin signalled a decline in positive sentiment regarding expected financial situations compared to indications last year.

160

Q1 09

167.2 +8.8 +7.1

Q3 08

157.6 +14.1 +4.4

Q1 09

q1 2017 year on year change quarter on quarter change

dublin

Q3 08

consumer sentiment

National excl. dublin

Base 2003 = 100

National excl. Dublin

Dublin expectationS 230

Base 2003 = 100

210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70

Dublin

About The KBC/ESRI sentiment index is based on responses from consumers about general economic conditions and their household finances. A more detailed commentary is available at www.kbc.ie/blog

10 //

National excl. Dublin

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

Q1 10

Q3 09

30

Q1 09

50 Q3 08

There was an improvement regarding consumers’ views on the economy across the first quarter of 2018. Slightly improved financial situations relative to respondents’ macroeconomic expectations suggests there is not as much of an improved standard of living as headline figures may suggest. Outside Dublin, a deterioration in expected financial situations over the next 12 months led to a weaker rise in overall consumer expectations.


DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI q1 sees further sharp expansion of dublin output

overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65

dublin

national excl. dublin

60

q1 2018

58.0

58.6

55

year on year change

+0.2 -0.9

-0.8 +1.8

50

overall ihs markit pmi

quarter on quarter change

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

45

fastest rise in new business since q2 2015

30

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 13

Q1 12

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

Q1 07

Q1 06

Q1 05

Q1 04

Q1 08

National excl. Dublin

rate of job creation accelerates

45 40 35 30

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 13

Q1 12

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q1 08

25

Q1 07

While output growth eased slightly at the start of the year, new business continued to rise at a substantial pace in Q1. Moreover, the rate of expansion quickened to the steepest since Q2 2015. New work has increased continuously on a quarterly basis since the end of 2012. The Rest of Ireland also recorded a faster increase in new business than in the previous quarter, but growth in Dublin continued to outpace that seen elsewhere.

50

Q1 06

-0.8 +1.2

Q1 05

+0.8 +1.4

55

Q1 04

year on year change

60

Q1 03

58.3

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

Q1 02

60.0

National excl. Dublin

Dublin

overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65

dublin

national excl. dublin

60

q1 2018

58.5

57.3

55

year on year change

-0.5 +1.7

-0.7 +3.1

50 45 40 35 30

Dublin

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 13

Q1 12

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

Q1 08

Q1 07

Q1 06

Q1 05

Q1 04

increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q1 03

25

Q1 02

In line with the trend in new orders, the rate of job creation at Dublin firms accelerated during Q1, with employment rising at a much faster pace than the series average. Employment has now increased in each of the past 22 quarters. The rate of jobs growth in Dublin was again faster than that seen across the Rest of Ireland at the start of the year, although job creation also accelerated outside the capital.

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

Q1 01

quarter on quarter change

Q1 03

Dublin

Q1 01

q1 2018

employment growth

increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q1 02

25

65

national excl. dublin

quarter on quarter change

35

overall pmi new orders (sa)

dublin

new orders

40

Q1 01

The Dublin private sector started 2018 on a positive note, seeing further strong growth of output during Q1. The Dublin PMI dipped slightly to 58.0 from 58.9 recorded at the end of 2017, but remained well above the 50.0 no-change mark. Meanwhile, growth picked up across the Rest of Ireland and was slightly faster than in Dublin. Activity in the services and construction sectors continued to rise sharply, but manufacturing growth slowed as heavy snowfall impacted operations in March.

National excl. Dublin

about The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com // 11


AN UPDATE ON DUBLIN'S TOURISM DEVELOPMENT - DUBLIN'S OUTDOORS

CONTINUED COLLABORATION BETWEEN FÁILTE IRELAND AND THE DUBLIN LOCAL AUTHORITIES

BY KEELIN FAGAN HEAD OF DUBLIN PROGRAMME, FAILTE IRELAND

Dublin is a vital contributor to Irish tourism and during 2017 our near record breaking visitation levels - 5.8 million overseas tourists- are testament to Dublin’s international reputation as a vibrant, culturally rich and exciting destination. Despite significant challenges in the macro operating environment, Dublin is on a strong footing – with high hotel occupancy levels, increased inbound aviation capacity, including direct flights from China for the first time ever this June. Our tourism businesses are thriving with momentum expected to continue, our aim for 2018 is to have 6 million overseas tourists delivering circa €2.18 billion to the Irish exchequer. The core focus of Fáilte Ireland is to collectively strive for success by working with our Local Authorities and partners on industry efforts helping Dublin tourism businesses to extend their reach and assert a greater presence for the international visitor. Integral to Fáilte Ireland’s Dublin strategy is to increase seasonality by building out the shoulder season months (November through to

12 //

February) to utilise spare room availability during this period as well as promoting the dispersion of visitors right throughout the city and county. Dublin will benefit economically from an increase in tourism and Fáilte Ireland are working closely with the four Dublin Local Authorities to develop and promote Dublin as a must see tourism destination. We promote Dublin as more than a city but also as a destination that is nestled alongside mountains and sea. Our annual international campaign promotes Dublin under a single brand narrative. Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland on behalf of the four Local Authorities and the Dublin Hotel Industry delivered a bespoke public/private funded overseas marketing campaign which sought to drive incremental business to Dublin from our key source markets of Great Britain, the United States and Europe during the shoulder season. The campaign creatively promoted the unexpected variety of experiences on offer to those who visit Dublin. This €1.7m campaign was extremely successful and this year’s campaign is currently being planned to build on this success.The development of


CREATING A TOURISM BRAND FOR DUBLIN’S OUTDOORS South Dublin County’s first tourism destination brand, “Dublin’s Outdoors”, is a celebration of the beauty of the mountains, waterways and parks of South Dublin County. Throughout the brand’s development, the outdoors and natural amenities stood out in terms of what people living and working in South Dublin County were proudest of. Culture and heritage was also a recurring theme and something locals would choose to recommend as part of an overall visitor experience. The brand values; ‘freedom, tranquillity, nature, freshness and adventure’ were developed as it is easy to enjoy the outdoor recreational activities, stories and food, whether in the mountains, along the River Liffey or in the small towns and villages in South Dublin County.

This will mean better navigation to improve overall visitor satisfaction levels encouraging visitors to experience not only our city centre offering but also our coastal villages and mountain experiences.

clear tourism related products and increased access gives compelling and motivating reasons to experience more across the geography of Dublin. With this in mind we are also working on developing a five year visitor orientation strategy & implementation plan for Dublin. The objective is to help visitors travel around Dublin by public transport, bike and on foot – and to do this with ease and confidence. This strategy is supported by the four local authorities the National Transport Authority and funded by Fáilte Ireland. Another key focus of our strategy is to build brilliant visitor experiences across Dublin. In the autumn, we will launch a small grants scheme for Dublin’s tourism businesses that will enhance the visitor experience through clever interpretation and visitor management. The tourism season for 2018 has certainly gotten off to an extremely positive start and we will continue to work through our strong partnerships with the Dublin Local Authorities and Dublin’s tourism providers to ensure that we can realise Dublin’s full tourism potential.

“Dublin’s Outdoors” also complements the national brand for the capital, adding “freedom, tranquillity, nature, freshness and adventure” to the “exciting and upbeat” feeling the capital aims to create for visitors. It was important when developing “Dublin’s Outdoors” to ensure that it aligned with the wider Dublin marketing brand. “Dublin’s Outdoors” reflects the wider values and includes adventure, its people and the serenity of nature together in one place. South Dublin County Council welcomes you to ‘Dublin’s Outdoors’ and the opportunity to unlock the treasures, places and stories of South Dublin County.

// 13


SPECIAL REPORT

TRANSFORMING THE INNOVATION LANDSCAPE FOR SOUTH DUBLIN BY FRANK NEVIN DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY COUNCIL

Credit: Innovation Factory Belfast

Feasibility study by SQW Ltd. and Oxford Innovation recommends high impact innovation space options The opportunity to deliver dynamic new innovation space in South Dublin follows on from actions outlined in the Dublin Regional Action Plan for Jobs and the Dublin Regional Enterprise Strategy. South Dublin County Council’s policy focus on developing and growing new and innovative enterprise to ensure that the potential in our area is properly harnessed through provision of high-quality facilities and supports. The recent feasibility study involved an audit of the current enterprise, innovation and incubation supports and space in the County (and Dublin Region), identifying the needs and requirements to maximise opportunities in the sector while also recommending the best approaches to meeting those needs in South Dublin. A number of specific objectives and opportunities were identified including:  Enhanced support for the local enterprise and innovation culture adding to the attractiveness of the County as a business location;  Addressing the shadow effect the County feels compared to Dublin City; and  Maximising local productivity growth while creating a hub for innovation which in turn can help to retain and embed a supply chain of innovators

The short-listed options for this exciting project each represent significant but different opportunities to transform the innovation landscape and agenda for South Dublin.” 14 //

The report recommends the delivery of a high-quality, high-impact innovation centre (with a life science / digital tech focus) that combines on site ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure, such as: Specialist buildings: providing affordable office, laboratory and workshop spaces; Networks: bringing together groups of innovative businesses to collaborate, share and explore development opportunities; Business support: including mentoring, business advice, financial planning, start-up programmes, marketing support, and project-based student/graduate placements. Prestige and profile: positive branding associated with a highquality innovation hub to help tenant firms with attraction and retention of highly skilled employees as well as individual and collective promotion for firms. The two specific options recommended include:  A three storey 3,000 sq. m innovation centre at a waterfront location in Grange Castle Business Park, focused particularly on life science and digital/IT firms, building on the sectoral strengths of South Dublin and major businesses located in the business park.  A new build (or refurbishment of existing premises) comprising of 3,000 sq. facility within the ITT-Tallaght Hospital corridor, benefitting from close proximity to IT Tallaght (and Synergy Centre on campus there), Tallaght Hospital, Trinity College Dublin’s Medical School, Local Enterprise Office South Dublin and Tallaght town centre with the potential to develop a facility here as the catalyst for an innovation district. These will both now be subject to final modelling, cost benefit analysis and review by the Council’s Economic, Enterprise and Tourism Development Strategic Policy Committee. We are strongly committed to delivering the right solution to enhance the local economic offering and look forward to identifying the best options (funding and delivery model) to move towards construction as soon as practicable.


ECONOMIC SCORECARD

dublin: economic scorecard MAY 2018 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents or vacancy rates that are either too high or too low.

economy ihs markit business pmi q1 2018

46

51

9

40

kbc/esri consumer sentiment q1 2018

100

10

57

58

34

unemployment rate q4 2017

70

12

63

6.4

5

3 month moving average (sa)

120

14

158

53

% (sa)

140

160

index (2003 = 100) (sa)

transport airport arrivals Nov 2017

870

1,000

740

7.6 1,130

1,253

615

seaport cargo q1 2018

1,245

000's/month (sa)

public transport trips q4 2017

8.2

7.0

8.7

9.3

6.4

50.0

47.7 45.4

43.2

million tonnes/quarter (sa)

52.3

54.6

million trips/quarter (sa)

residential property average residential rents q4 2017

1,190

1,300

1,090

981

residential property price index jan 2018

1,511

69

113

103

55

â‚Ź/month

700

500

99

84 1,400

housing completions jan 2018

128

index 2005 = 100

300

1,000

388

61

1,180

units/month (sa)

commercial property dublin city centre office rent q1 2018

460

540

380

296

dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q1 2018

700 â‚Ź/sq.m.

700

10

5

25

5.3 %

18

15

20

15 620

dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q1 2018

30

11

22

7.9

25

%

sources: cso, except consumer sentiment kbc/esri; ihs markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents rtb; commercial property cbre research

// 15


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Dublin Economic Monitor - May 2018  
Dublin Economic Monitor - May 2018