Page 1

issue 17

MAY 2019

In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE DUBLIN'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 12 YEARS page 12

page 14

dr. robert butler director centre for sports economics & law university college cork

peter byrne ceo, south dublin chamber

the economics of sport

collaboration driving sustainable business


WELCOME

HIGHLIGHTS Dublin’s workforce exceeds 700,000 (SA) in Q4 2018 with the unemployment rate below 5% for the first time since since Q4 2017. Residential rents reached €1,650 during Q4 2018 however, a QoQ decline of 0.8% may signal the first signs of market stabilization. Residential property prices have recorded MoM declines for four consecutive months, the longest spell of declines since February 2012. Public transport trips in 2018 saw record levels of public transport usage with over 223 million trips recorded, an increase of 6% on 2017 figures. Housing completions for Dublin rose to 6,932 marking YoY growth of 21.5% for 2018. Dublin office rents have remained unchanged for 6 consecutive quarters however overall City Centre rents have increased by 18% since Q4 2008. The Mastercard Dublin SpendingPulse shows consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew buy 4.3% (SA) YoY Q1 2019. Overseas tourism spending increased by 15.1% (SA) but UK tourist spending declined by 5%. The Dublin MARKIT PMI Output across the Dublin economy continued to increase sharply during Q1 2019 with the construction sector registering the sharpest rise in business activity

COVER IMAGE: TALLAGHT STADIUM COURTESY OF BEN RYAN

2 //

WELCOME TO THE MAY 2019 ISSUE OF THE DUBLIN ECONOMIC MONITOR

T

he Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of particular interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services and IHS MARKIT deliver the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending patterns. The SpendingPulse is derived from anonymised and aggregated card transaction data as well as other means of payments such as cash and cheques. This data helps the city develop new insights on the spending patterns of Dubliners Dublin City Council

South Dublin County Council

and tourists, as well as comparing the Capital's performance to the whole of Ireland (see centrefold supplement). The special articles this quarter include one from Dr. Robbie Blake, Director - Centre for Sports Economics & Law, University College Cork exploring the Economics of Sport. The second article is written by Peter Byrne, CEO South Dublin Chamber and describes their collaborative and award winning Sustainable Business Program. We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor resources online at www.dublineconomy.ie. The next release will be published online in August 2019.

Fingal County Council

Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council

This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.


ECONOMY

GLOBAL ECONOMY

NATIONAL ECONOMY

Global growth for 2019 was revised down by the IMF in April to 3.3% from 3.9% forecast one year ago. The main drivers of this revision include US-China trade tensions, the economic downturns in Argentina and Turkey, the performance in the auto-sector in Germany, tighter financial conditions and the normalisation of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies. Growth is expected to pick up in 2020 to 3.6%, while the Euro Area is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. The US economy is expected to perform above expectations in 2019, but will slow in 2020 as downside risks weigh on the forecasts.

The Irish economy is a positive outlier in Europe, with growth of 6.7% in 2018, and Modified Domestic Demand (which removes the volatile elements of investment) shows underlying growth of 3.3%. 50,000 new jobs were added in 2018, personal consumption rose by 3%, imports by 7% and wages by over 4%. These are all signs of increasing consumer wealth and confidence. Inflation has been low, meaning that wages have been rising faster than prices, translating into increased spending power. Inflation rose above 1% in March for the first time since February 2013. April saw this rate accelerate (1.7%), with the most notable increases in housing and fuel (+4.7%), restaurants and hotels (+3.7%) and transport (+3.7%). The combination of wage increases, which are driving employers to put prices up, and a relatively stable currency has led to the pick-up. Real wages are still growing, but the gap between wage growth and inflation is a critical trend to monitor.

gdp forecast growth, 2019 7 6 5 4

earnings and inflation, 2010-2018

3

4%

2

3%

1

2%

0

China

Indonesia

World

Ireland

USA

Korea

Brazil

Spain

Australia

Russia

Mexico

France

Canada

UK

S. Africa

Japan

Italy

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

-1%

Germany

-3

Turkey

0%

Argentina

-2

2009

1%

-1

-2% -3% -4%

source: imf world economic outlook, april 2019

-5%

The UK economy is expected to slow in 2019, and rebound to 2018 levels by 2020. EY’s ITEM Club revised its UK growth forecasts down to 1.3% (from 1.5%) in 2019 and 1.5% (from 1.7%) in 2020, assuming Britain leaves the EU on 31 October. Prolonged Brexit uncertainty and subdued business investment were cited as the key factors in the downward revision. UK Q1 2019 GDP growth was 0.5%, ahead of expectations. Manufacturers filling orders and stockpiling by firms before the original March Brexit date caused the sector to grow by its fastest level since 1988. UK unemployment (3.9%) is at a 45 year low, while average real earnings (+1.5%) and retail sales growth (+6.7%) are at their highest in two years. It is becoming clear that Brexit is not the only influence on UK economic performance.

major economies gdp growth forecasts 2018 %F global

3.6

2019 %f

2020 %f

Average weekly earnings

CPI inflation

source: central statistics office

Looking across a basket of indicators, the outlook for Ireland remains strong, despite ongoing Brexit risks. Employment is expected to grow by 2.0%, wages by 4.2% and consumption by 2.5% in 2019. The increased employment, coupled with higher wages will boost the economy further, although this is likely to cause the historically low inflation to rise.

irish macroeconomic growth forecasts 2019 %F

2020 %f

gnp

3.4%

3.5%

gdp

3.8%

3.3%

private consumption

2.5%

2.3%

5.2%

3.8% 5.6%

3.3

3.6

public expenditure

uk

1.4

1.2

1.4

investment

7.0%

us

2.9

2.3

1.9

exports

4.8%

4.7%

5.6%

5.5% 4.8%

euro area

1.8

1.3

1.5

imports

germany

1.5

0.8

1.4

unemployment rate

5.1%

japan

0.8

1.0

0.5

employment

2.0%

1.7%

china

6.6

6.3

6.1

modified final domestic demand

3.9%

3.5%

india

7.1

7.3

7.5

modified total domestic demand

3.6%

3.2%

source: imf world economic outlook, april 2019

sources: ey economic eye forecasts. f: forecast

// 3


DUBLIN ECONOMY

ECONOMY CONTINUES ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY AS UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES RECORD LOW SINCE THE BOOM

however house prices now showing signs of a slowdown, DUBLIN’S WORKFORCE CONTINUES ON STRONG UPWARD TRAJECTORY For the first time in the series history, Dublin’s workforce reached 700,000 at the end of 2018. A previous peak in employment was recorded at the cusp of the economic crisis in Q4 2007 when the workforce in the Capital peaked at 652,000, some 48,000 fewer than the current level. One of the key differences between then and now is the contribution of the construction sector to the overall workforce. Twelve years ago the construction sector made up 7.7% of the total Dublin workforce. Today it is closer to 4.5%. Lower dependence on the construction sector will help to insulate the local economy from any potential slowdown in the coming years. Of all the sectors which make up the total workforce, the greatest growth has come in the ICT sector. Since 2007, the number of people employed in ICT has increased by 43% and the sector now makes up 8.9% of the workforce, compared to 6.7% at the end of 2007. In 2018, some 18,000 technology related jobs were created in Ireland, with close to 40% of these based in Dublin and Leinster. A concern now, for ICT firms in particular, is that it will become more difficult to fill these positions as the market reaches full employment. A recent white paper published by Code Institute in Dublin has identified concerns regarding the country’s ability to meet demand for digital skills, with approximately 12,000 positions set to remain unfilled by 2020. Many of these positions are expected to be Dublin-based and such a shortfall in talent could have a direct knock-on impact on productivity and growth. In the final quarter of 2018, Dublin’s unemployment rate fell below 5% for the first time since Q4 2007. With employers ranking talent retention and attraction as one of their biggest concerns for the

4 //

coming months, over and above the threat of Brexit (EY Economic Eye Winter 2019), policy changes (e.g. around childcare) may be required to see the participation rate increase above the current level of 66% in Dublin. OTHER INDICATORS TELL A SIMILARLY POSITIVE STORY With Dublin’s workforce continuing on its upward trajectory, after what appeared to be the first signs of a stabilization in the economy in Q3 2018, growth has resumed in Q4. Indicators such as passenger numbers on public transport, passengers through Dublin Airport and throughput at Dublin Port, all appear to have rebounded in the final quarter of 2018. Dublin Port recorded strong YoY import and export growth in Q1 2019. Exports, in particular, recorded the strongest YoY growth since Q3 2017 and registered growth of 5.9%. This compares to YoY growth of 1.1% in Q4 2018 and -0.5% in Q3. With a 10-year €1 billion investment programme in place, Eamon O'Reilly, Chief Executive of Dublin Port stated:

“With all the economic uncertainty, volumes through Dublin Port are remarkably robust and underpin the need for us to continue to invest in additional port infrastructure guided by our own Masterplan 2040 and by Project Ireland 2040.” Passenger numbers on the four main modes of public transport in Dublin also recovered in the final quarter of 2018. A total of 223 million passenger trips took place in the year, an increase of 6% over 2017. The greatest number of passenger trips were recorded


DUBLIN ECONOMY

“Of all the sectors which make up the total workforce, the greatest growth has come in the ICT sector” on Dublin City Bus, with 141.5 million trips taking place, followed by 41.7 million trips on the LUAS, registering growth of 10.7% over 2017 levels. HOUSE PRICE GROWTH IS BEGINNING TO SLOW While a number of indicators appear to have rebounded from the ‘levelling off’ identified in late 2018, house prices continue on a downward trend. In February 2019, Dublin house prices recorded the fourth consecutive MoM decline since February 2012. The YoY growth rates have also slowed, for the first time since February 2012 – recording 1.4% YoY growth in February 2019, compared to doubledigit growth 10 months previously. Outside Dublin house prices appear to have stabilised too (7.5% YoY growth, Feb 2019), though not to the same extent as recorded in Dublin. Potential reasons for this slowdown are numerous. Following an extended period of strong double-digit price growth, there is now a significant affordability issue in the market. A recent affordability report from Knight Frank has found that Dublin is now one of the least-affordable places to buy a home across 32 international cities. Central Bank rules appear to be having a significant impact on the housing market, with an appreciable drop in the numbers obtaining mortgage approval for properties in excess of €350,000 nationally. This is creating a ceiling on house prices which is now becoming evident in the data. Finally, housing supply in Dublin, and nationally, continues to increase. In 2018, 6,932 houses were completed in Dublin, an increase of 27% on 2017 levels. The pipeline of housing was also healthier in 2018 than it was in previous years. A total of 7,707 housing commencements were registered in 2018, 10% up on the total recorded in 2017. Improvements in housing supply are also likely feeding into the first decline in average Dublin rents recorded since Q1 2016. The situation in the housing market is still difficult, with homelessness figures in the capital now in excess of 7,000. However there does now appear to be positive momentum on the supply side of the market as commencements exceeded completions throughout 2018 which will have a positive impact on the overall market.

Amretpal Virdee, Economist at IHS Markit, commenting on the continued increase in output across Dublin, stated:

“The Dublin economy showed further signs of strength at the start of 2019. Output growth remained sharp, despite easing to the slowest since Q2 2013. Divergences were noted at the sector level, with substantial expansions of the services and construction sectors contrasting with a marked decline in manufacturing production. This was the first in seven years and likely reflects a combination of Brexit uncertainty and the wider manufacturing slowdown seen across Europe in recent months.” Consumer spending, as captured by the Mastercard SpendingPulse has also continued on an upward trajectory in Q1 2019. Overall sales grew by 4.3% YoY, driven largely by spending on entertainment, which registered 12% YoY growth. Speaking on the latest results on overall sales and tourism spend, Michael MacNamara, Mastercard SpendingPulse stated:,

“Both Ireland and Dublin experienced a mild deceleration in retail sales growth rates in Q1 2019. For Ireland, sales slowed to 3.7% YoY (SA) and in Dublin sales growth slowed to 4.3% YoY (SA). Tourist spending continued its strong performance rising by 15.1% YoY (SA). Weakness in spending from the UK was offset by an acceleration from other major regions. Overall spending growth, outside of the U.K., looks like it has very positive momentum heading in to the high Spring and Summer season.” Slowing growth in China and the US, as well as other prominent global economies will inevitably feed through to Ireland’s small open economy. Similarly, Brexit uncertainty is set to continue, potentially at least until 31 October. Despite these risks, and other challenges presented by the housing market, Dublin’s strong and diversified labour market and a thriving business sector will act to bolster the economy in the event of a downturn.

DUBLIN’S ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM STRONGLY DESPITE GLOBAL CHALLENGES Notwithstanding the issues relating to housing supply, which are likely to ac as a drag on the Dublin economy for the foreseeable future, and Brexit headwinds, the local economy continues to perform strongly.

// 5


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

construction employment takes a dip for first time since 2014 services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q4 ' 18 613.5 23.3 79.3 0.8

Dublin Max 13.7%

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

Dublin

Q3 18

Q4 17

Q1 17

Q2 16

Q3 15

Q4 14

Q1 14

Q2 13

0%

Q3 12

2%

Q4 11

Dublin’s unemployment rate has fallen below 5% for the first time since Q4 2007. With the unemployment rate at a National level unchanged, at 5.7% in Q4, there is now a divergence in the unemployment rates recorded in Dublin and the rest of the country. With an additional 26,500 people added to the workforce between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018 there are now 700,000 people employed in the Capital - the highest on record.

National Max 16%

16%

Q1 11

source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

18%

Q2 10

dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q4 ' 18 4.9% -1.1 700 +26.5

dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa)

Q3 09

dublin's unemployment rate falls below 5% in q4 2018

National

source: cso lfs. dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 800 Max: 692,800

700 600 500 400

source: cso lfs. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

For the first time since Q3 2014 the number of people in Dublin employed in the construction sector has fallen, by 2.5% YoY. Across the Private Sector, Public Sector and Industry, Construction is the only sector to register a YoY decline in Q4 2018. The Public Sector recorded the fastest employment growth, driven largely by robust 29.3% YoY growth in Public Administration.

300 200 100 0

Q4 09

Q4 10

Q4 11

Q4 12

Private Sector Services

Q4 13

Q4 14

Public sector

Q4 15

Q4 16

Industry

source: cso. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding

6 //

Q4 17

Q4 18

Construction


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin property prices record four consecutive months of decline

source: cso.

Dublin Max 107.7

110 100 90 80 70

average dublin rents register first qoq decline in two years q4 ' 18 1,650 +120

60

Dublin

Oct 18

Feb 19

Jun 18

Oct 17

Feb 18

Jun 17

Oct 16

Feb 17

Jun 16

Oct 15

Feb 16

Jun 15

Oct 14

Feb 15

Jun 14

Oct 13

Feb 14

Jun 13

Oct 12

Feb 13

Jun 12

Oct 11

Feb 12

Jun 11

Oct 10

Feb 11

40

Jun 10

50

Feb 10

Dublin property prices have recorded MoM declines for four consecutive months. This is the longest spell of MoM declines, since February 2012. There are a number of factors that may be feeding into this trend with improving supply, Central Bank lending rules, and affordability issues amongst the main factors. On an annual basis, Dublin house prices increased by 1.4% in February. Prices at a National level also appear to have stabilised in recent months with no MoM growth recorded in February 2019.

National excl. Dublin

source: cso.

residential rents € €1,750

Dublin Max: €1,663

€1,650 €1,550 €1,450 €1,350 €1,250 €1,150 €1,050 €950 €850 €750

Dublin

Greater Dublin Area (excl. Dublin)

Q4 18

Q2 18

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

Q4 13

Q2 13

Q4 12

€550

Q2 12

€650 Q4 11

In Q4 2018, average Dublin rents recorded their first QoQ decline since Q1 2017. Though only falling by 0.8%, this may be an early signal of a stabilisation in the market. Similar trends were recorded in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) and outside the GDA with QoQ growth of 0.7% and -3.7% respectively. On an annual basis, rents in the Capital increased by 7.8% in Q4, the slowest YoY increase recorded in 2018.

Q2 11

source: rtb.

Q4 10

dublin avg residential rent € per month year on year change €

120

Q2 10

property price index dublin year on year % change property price index national excl dublin year on year % change

feb ' 19 105.1 +1.4 99.9 +7.5

residential property price index (2005 = 100)

Outside GDA

source: rtb. note: gda (ex dublin) is kildare, meath and wicklow.

Completions Max: 1,892

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400

Completions

Q4 18

Q2 18

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

0

Q4 13

200 Q2 13

New housing completions in Dublin edged closer to the 2,000 mark in Q4 2018. Registering YoY growth of 21.5%, compared to 23.1% in Q3 2018, this latest data marks continued improvement. In 2018 6,932 homes were completed in total. Commencements too are now at their highest level in over seven years with 2,240 commencements in Q4 2018 and 7,707 in the year. There is clear upward momentum in the market with commencements consistently higher than completions.

2,000

Q4 12

source: dhplg, cso note: house commencement data is not seasonally adjusted

Commencements Max: 2,240

2,200

Q2 12

q4 ' 18 2,240 600 1,892 335

2,400

Q4 11

total house commencements year on year change total house completions year on year change

dublin housing commencements & completions

Q2 11

Close to 7,000 homes completed in dublin in 2018

Commencements

source: dhplg.

// 7


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS rent level for dublin office space are six quarters unchanged

130 City Centre Max = 118.2

120

South Suburbs Max = 114

110 100 90 80 70 60

City Centre

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

40

Q1 10

50

Q3 09

Office rents in Dublin’s City Centre and Suburbs are now six quarters unchanged – since Q4 2017. Comparing current rates to 10 years ago shows that prime office rent in Dublin City Centre has increased 18.2% while the Suburbs have recorded a rise of 14%.

Q1 09

source: CBRE

Q3 08

city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change

q1 '19 118.2 0.0 114.0 0.0

dublin office rents index (2006 = 100)

South Suburbs

source: cbre.

dublin suburbs record 18.8pp drop in vacancy on 2009 peak

dublin office space vacancy rates % 30% Dublin Suburbs Max = 25%

vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points

q1 '19 3.9 -1.4 6.2 -1.6

Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%

25%

20%

15%

source: cbre.

223 million passenger trips recorded in dublin in 2018 public transport million trips (sa) year on year change million trips (sa)

10%

Dublin 2/4

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Dublin Suburbs

source: cbre.

public transport million trips (sa) 60

q4 '18 56.7 +2.7

source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

Passenger numbers on the LUAS continue to rise with 10.8 million passenger trips recorded in Q4 2018. In total 41.7 million passenger trips took place on the LUAS in 2018, an increase of 10.7% on the performance in 2017. All four modes of transport registered YoY increases in Q4 2018, with trips on Bus Éireann showing the strongest growth at 21.1%, albeit from a low base. In total 223 million passenger trips took place in the Capital in 2018, a 6% increase on 2017.

50

40

30

20

10

0

Q3 16

Q4 16

Q1 17

Bus Éireann

Q2 17

Q3 17

Dublin Bus

source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm

8 //

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

Q1 12

Q3 11

Q1 11

Q3 10

0%

Q1 10

5%

Q3 09

Following the trend of 2018, office vacancy in Dublin 2/4 and the suburbs continues to decline. YoY declines of 1.4 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, were recorded in Q1. Vacancy rates are now at their lowest levels since the series began in 2007, confirming the strong recovery in the Dublin market in recent years. Vacancy rates in Dublin suburbs, for example, have fallen 18.8 percentage points since the peak in Q3 2009 when a rate of 25% was recorded.

Q4 17

Q1 18

Q2 18

Irish Rail

Q3 18

Q4 18

Luas


Ma y 2 0 1 9

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2019*

+4.3%

+15.1%

OVERALL SALES

+4.1% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+3.4% DISCRETIONARY

+6.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+9.7% ECOMMERCE

+12.0% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2019

TOTAL DUBLIN CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH EASES MODESTLY IN Q1 TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 130

122

+4.3% YoY

125 120

119

115

+3.7% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Both Ireland and Dublin experienced a mild deceleration in retail sales growth rates in Q1 2019. For Ireland, sales slowed from 4.2% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 3.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. Dublin sales growth slowed from 6.9% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 4.3% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. While retail spending in Dublin increased YoY, on a quarterly basis there was no change recorded. This may be linked to lower than normal quarterly growth rates in Necessities (0.1% QoQ, SA) and Discretionary Sales (0.2% QoQ, SA).

Tourist spending remained robust in Q1 growing by 15.1% vs Q1 2018. While UK tourism spending was weak (-5% YoY) spending from virtually all the other major regions we track saw accelerations in spending growth. One interesting area is tourism spending from China where Q1 2019 growth was almost 19% vs Q1 2018. This contrasts with many reports of falling Chinese tourism spending in the USA in recent months. Outside the UK, tourism spending has very positive momentum heading in to the high Spring and Summer season.

Tourism spending grew by 15.1% YoY in Q1 with weakness in UK spending being offset by strong trends from other major regions.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+4.3%

121.9

+0%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q1 2019

100 = Q1 2014

Q1 2019

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

STRONG GROWTH IN ENTERTAINMENT CONTINUES TO DRIVE OVERALL SPEND

178

190

+9.7% YoY

180 170

172

160

+14.1% YoY

150

| May 2019

140

On an annual basis, Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2019 was positively influenced by all four consumption types covered in the SpendingPulse. The strongest growth came from Entertainment with 12.0% growth YoY (SA). This is the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth in Entertainment spending in Dublin. Nationally, consumer spending increased by 3.7% YoY (SA), driven by similarly strong growth in Entertainment. Online sales in Dublin rebounded to 9.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019 following growth of 2.7% (SA) in Q4 2018.

130 120 110 100

IRELAND

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

124

130

121

125

+4.1% YoY

+3.4% YoY

125

120

120

115

115

116

+2.1% YoY

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

151

157

160

+12% YoY

150

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 160

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

95

Q4 14

95

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

100

Q1 14

+3.3% YoY

105

105

IRELAND

116

110

Q2 14

110

+6.9% YoY

150

140

140

141

IRELAND

DUBLIN

3

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

90 Q4 14

90 Q3 14

100

Q2 14

100

Q1 14

110

Q4 14

120

110

IRELAND

+1.4% YoY

Q3 14

120

144

130

+10.9% YoY

Q2 14

130


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2019

REDUCED UK TOURIST SPENDING OFFSET BY NOTABLE GROWTH FROM CHINESE & GERMAN MARKETS For the fifth consecutive quarter tourism spend in Dublin has registered YoY growth in excess of 10%. Growth in Dublin in Q1 2019, of 15.1% (SA), was largely driven by the Chinese and German markets, registering growth of 18.8% (SA) and 18.5% (SA) respectively. The US (14.9% YoY) and French (16.2% YoY) markets also contributed strongly to overall tourism spend in Dublin.

uncertainty created by Brexit, as well as the knock on effects on exchange rates and affordability perceptions of the Capital may all be feeding into this trend. Nationally (incl. Dublin), growth of 3.5% YoY (SA) in tourism spend by the UK market was recorded in the first quarter of the year. Indeed, the data suggests that the UK market may be choosing to spend their money outside of the Capital. Quarterly, UK tourism spend rose by 2.3% (SA), the highest rate of quarterly growth since Q2 2016. Overall, tourism spend Nationally came in at 12.9% YoY in Q1 2019. The German market was the strongest contributor to the National performance, registering 15.6% YoY (SA) growth in Q1.

Following three quarters of positive YoY growth in UK tourism spend in Dublin, at the end of 2018 it appears now that market has taken a negative turn at the start of 2019. In Q1 2019, tourism spend by the UK market fell by 5% YoY (SA). This downward trend is more evident on a quarterly basis with the market registering negative QoQ growth since Q2 2018. The

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2019 (SA) OVERALL

+12.9% +15.1%

+3.5% -5.0%

+14.2% +14.9%

+15.6% +18.5%

+11.6% +16.2%

+13% +18.8%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

Q1 2014 = 100

200

200

190

190

180

180

160

150

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

All

UK

158.2

170

154.1

160

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

170

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

USA

Germany

France

100

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

4

China


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000

Q4 18

Q2 18

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

4,000

Q2 14

4,500

Q4 13

Quarterly data published by the CSO indicate that total passenger numbers reached a new peak in the final quarter of 2018. A total of 8.05 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport in Q4, meaning a total of 31.3 million passengers came through the airport in 2018. This represents an increase of 6.1% over the total passengers recorded in 2017.

Max: 8.05m

8,000

Q2 13

source: cso. note: change in the series from monthly data to quarterly data seasonally adjusted by cso

8,500

Q4 12

total passengers '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q4 2018 8,052 503

dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa)

Q2 12

31.3 million passengers through dublin airport in 2018

source: cso.

10

q1 ' 19 3.89 0.22 5.93 0.36

8 7 6 5

source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: imports and exports may not add to total throughput due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.

4

Following what appeared to be a stabilisation in port activity in the latter half of 2018, data for Q1 2019 shows a distinct rebound in throughput. In Q1 2019, throughput at Dublin Port reached 9.8 million tonnes (SA). Both imports and exports have contributed strongly to this growth, with exports in particular registering 5.9% YoY (SA) in Q1, the strongest annual growth in export activity at the Port since Q3 2017.

2

dublin hotel average daily rates up 6.3% yoy in december 2018 hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, july 2013=100)

year on year change %

mar '19 84.1% 0.0 108.9 4.6%

Max: 9.8 million tonnes

9

3

Total Tonnage

Imports

Q1 19

Exports

source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) 110

€150

Maximum: €146

108

€140

106 104

€130

102 100

€120

source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

98 €110

96 94

€100

Average Daily Rate €

Mar 19

Jan 19

Feb 19

Dec 18

Nov 18

Oct 18

Sep 18

Aug 18

Jul 18

Jun 18

Apr 18

May 18

Mar 18

Feb 18

Jan 18

Dec 17

Nov 17

Oct 17

Sep 17

Aug 17

Jul 17

Jun 17

92 €90

May 17

The supply index of hotel accommodation in Dublin was unchanged MoM in March 2019, at 108.9. YoY this represents an increase of 4.6% with an additional 1,000 beds available compared to March 2018. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) has fallen marginally in recent months. Having peaked in August 2018 at €144, the ADR now stands at €142, up 1.2% YoY. According to STR, the supply of hotel accommodation is to increase further with an additional 2,500 rooms due to open in 2019/2020.

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

Q4 13

Q3 13

Q2 13

0

Q1 13

1 Q4 12

dublin port exports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa) dublin port imports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa)

dublin port tonnage million tonnes (sa)

Q3 12

thoughput at dublin port hits 9.8 million tonnes in q1

90

Index of Supply

source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

// 9


DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI sharp, but slower rise in dublin business activity

overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65

dublin

national excl. dublin

60

q1 2019

56.1

55.5

55

year on year change

-1.8 -1.6

-3.1 0.5

50

overall ihs markit pmi

quarter on quarter change

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

45

35 30

65 60

q1 2019

58.2

55.0

55

year on year change

-1.8 0.1

-3.4 0.1

Q1 19

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

40 35 30

Q1 19

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 13

Q1 12

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

Q1 08

Q1 07

Q1 06

Q1 05

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q1 04

25

National excl. Dublin

overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65

national excl. dublin

60

q1 2019

56.5

55.6

55

year on year change

-2.0 1.5

-1.7 1.0

50

quarter on quarter change

Q1 13

45

dublin

employment growth

Q1 12

50

Dublin

employment growth increases at faster pace in q1

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

Q1 08

Q1 07

Q1 05

Q1 04

Q1 06

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

Q1 03

New business recorded at Dublin companies continued to increase at a substantial pace in the first quarter of 2019. Moreover, the rate of growth quickened to the fastest since Q2 2018. The rate of expansion in new business in the Rest of Ireland was slower than recorded in Dublin for the second quarter in a row.

National excl. Dublin

overall pmi new orders (sa)

national excl. dublin

quarter on quarter change

Q1 03

Dublin

dublin

new orders

Q1 02

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q1 01

25

Q1 02

new business growth fastest since q2 2018

40

Q1 01

Output across the Dublin economy continued to increase sharply during the first quarter of 2019. The seasonally adjusted Dublin PMI posted 56.1, the lowest reading since Q2 2013. Strong output growth was also signaled across the Rest of Ireland, with the rate of expansion quickening from the end of 2018. The construction sector again posted the sharpest rise in business activity during Q1, while services also registered a steep increase. There were signs of a slowdown in manufacturing, however, as it recorded a contraction in output, the first in seven years.

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

45 40 35 30

Dublin

about The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com

National excl. Dublin

Q1 19

Q1 18

Q1 17

Q1 16

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 13

Q1 12

Q1 11

Q1 10

Q1 09

Q1 08

Q1 07

Q1 06

Q1 05

Q1 04

Q1 03

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q1 02

25

Q1 01

As has been the case in each quarter since Q4 2012, staffing levels in Dublin increased in Q1 2019. Moreover, the rate of job creation was marked and quickened from that seen at the end of 2018. Companies in Dublin continued to take on staff at a faster pace than the Rest of Ireland, the seventh quarter in which this has been the case.


DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS

DUBLIN IN RANKS 3RD IN FDI SMART LOCATIONS OF THE FUTURE

Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). Dublin ranked 3rd in the fDi Smart locations of the Future 2019/2020, with Dublin’s Smart Docklands, a joint initiative between Dublin City Council and Trinity College’s Connect Centre, ranked number one for FDI strategy. The ranking recognises the initiative which seeks to connect SME’s, residents and local government with technology companies to create a testbed for future innovation. The Mercer Quality of Living report ranks 231 international cities depending on environmental and socio-economic factors. In March 2019 Dublin moved up one place

to 33rd in the Quality of Living ranking. The report cites low levels of air pollution, a strong socio-cultural environment and political stability as the cause for the improvement. Mercer outlines transportation and availability of international schools as two areas with potential for improvement. Dublin remains 19th out of 133 cities for the second consecutive year on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Worldwide Cost of Living Survey. Dublin’s ranking makes it the 10th most expensive city to live in, in Europe. The survey ranks major cities by reference to the cost of a basket of goods. Furthermore, INRIX’s Global Scorecard, ranks Dublin third out of 200+ cities for hours lost in traffic congestion. City Centre congestion is particularly difficult for commuters with Dublin ranking worst for inner city travel time. The IMF’s Global Financial Stability

Report finds that Dublin has recorded one of the highest property price inflation rates from 2013 to 2018, among 22 cities. Average annual real house price growth rate was 10% in Dublin, compared to approximately 7% in London and 2% in New York. ECA International further outlines that Dublin has entered the Top 5 most expensive locations for expat rental accommodation in Europe. In 2019 Dublin climbed 35 places to 26th position on the global ECA rankings. Dublin is now more expensive than Paris, Copenhagen and Stockholm. Dublin ranks 4th in Cushman & Wakefield’s new European Co-Working Hotspot Index, beating European powerhouses such as Munich, Amsterdam, Berlin and Madrid. Dublin ranks above the European average in 12 of the 15 metrics used in the Index.

D U B L I N ' S L AT E S T I N T E R N AT I O N A L R A N K I N G S SOURCE Global Talent Competitiveness Index

BENCHMARK CRITERIA Regulatory, market and business/labour landscape, external and internal openness, education and access to growth opportunities and, sustainability and lifestyle Economic potential, innovation and attractiveness, FDI performance, cost effectiveness and connectivity

YEAR

RANKING

CHANGE‡

2019

35

2019

3

Mercer 2019 Quality of Living Survey

Environmental/socio-economic

2019

33

Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI)

Business environment, financial sector development, infrastructure, human capital, reputational & general factors; online survey

2019

38

The Economist Intelligence Unit Worldwide Cost of Living 2019

Price comparison across 160 products and services

2019

19

-

2019

26

2019

1

fDi Smart Locations of the Future 2019/2020

ECA International 2019

Average rental prices for a three-bedroom apartment in the mid-range of the expatriate market Average Annual Real House Price Growth in Selected Economies and Cities

RCA Capital Liquidity Scores Report

Property liquidity

2019

25

INRIX 2018 Global Traffic Scorecard

Hours lost in congestion

2018

3

▲ -

Cushman and Wakefield European coworking hotspot index

40 European cities ranked by a weighting of elements including scale, business environment, people and catalyst factors.

2019

4

-

Knight Frank Global Affordability Index

House prices and rent as portion of income and Finance

2019

-

IMD World Talent Ranking

Developing, attracting and retain high skilled workers

2018

21

WorldFirst European Buy-to-Let League

Property and rental prices

2018

1

Mercer 2018 Cost of Living Survey

Cost of consumer goods and services

2018

32

▼ ▼

International Monetary Fund

‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.

// 11


DUBLIN IS VIBRANT!

THE ECONOMICS OF SPORT DR. ROBERT BUTLER

DIRECTOR – CENTRE FOR SPORTS UNIVERSITY COLLEGE CORK

Like many influences on the state today, concepts that emerge in North America and spread to the United Kingdom, often find a home on these shores. Sports economics is no different.

Gaelic Football and hurling dominate almost half of all competitive sport but are amateur.

�

12 //

The study of the economics of sport is very much in its infancy in Ireland however, as a research area it is probably older than most people think. The first study concerning the economics of sport can be traced to 1956 when Simon Rottenberg examined the labour market for baseball. It took almost 15 years for the topic to appear in England, but in 1969 Peter Sloane examined the labour market for professional football. In both cases labour market issues were the motivation for such research. Considering labour market issues in an Irish context is almost impossible. Most sport played on this island is amateur. Whether for reasons of sporting identity, or simply because the demand for such labour does not exist, those paid to play sport in Ireland are an exceedingly small group of people. A closer look at how sport is played here reveals just how few people earn a living from professional sport. In total, it is about 0.7% of the sporting population. Almost 85% of sports in Ireland is played/engaged with in an informal or non-competitive manner. This is every form of activity you can imagine, from cycling to


Tallaght Stadium – A County Venue

swimming, to causal games of 5-a-side, as well as athletics or simply keeping fit. The remaining 15% of sporting activity happens in a competitive and professional setting. Yet again, the Irish case is somewhat different. The Central Statics Office’s most recent “Sports” module in the Household Budget Survey confirms that the labour market for professional sports persons in Ireland is dominated by domestic rugby. For every 20 players of the sport today, 1 is earning a living from their efforts. About 1 in 50 athletes that compete individually, in sports such as boxing or rowing are professional. Our remaining professional athletes are found playing domestic soccer, and in individual pursuits such as aerobics and dance. Our geographic proximity and historical links to the United Kingdom, in particular England, mean that Ireland is very much an exporter when it comes to sporting talent. This does not mean there is no place for sports economics in Ireland. Quite the opposite in fact. The subject has grown rapidly in recent times, well beyond the scope of labour market issues, and encompasses many different sporting scenarios like competition-design, competitive balance, rule changes and public choice. Undoubtedly, the past number of decades has witnessed a rapid rise in revenues that can be generated from sport. The most successful sports have done this through three main avenues; increasing matchday income, increasing sponsorship revenues and, most importantly, vastly improved broadcasting arrangements. These three are again, less obvious in the Irish sporting context. Importantly, sports economics is much more than just the commercial side of sport. While economics has a part to play in this evolution, one can find many instances where the economics of sport and the business of sport are conflated. There are certainly not the same. The impact of sports economics is more readily found in the limitations of our sports. Frequent change in both competition structure and the rules of our native sports is a good example of this. The AllIreland series, traditionally knock-out competitions, have changed over the past twenty years, and are now a combination of semi-knockout competition and round-robin leagues. The result has been more games and more television broadcasts. The financial impact of this is sizeable, particularly for governing bodies and those located in the vicinity of sporting stadia. Of course,

Ten years on from opening its doors, Tallaght Stadium has become one of the premier sporting facilities in the country by continuing to expand and develop whilst providing a home to Shamrock Rovers and FAI international teams. In 2018, Tallaght Stadium — which is owned and operated by South Dublin County Council — increased capacity to 8,000, improved facilities and hosted such milestone events as the Special Olympics’ Opening Ceremony and the debut of Stephen Kenny as manager of the Republic of Ireland under-21's international football team. South Dublin County Council commissioned a report from Cooney Architects in recent months that explored the option of developing the North Stand of the stadium and boosting capacity to 10,000 whilst providing for greater corporate and press facilities. This work is expected to progress in 2020 to further enhance Tallaght Stadium’s status as one of the top sporting and events facilities in the country.

it would be incorrect to label this as some sort of economic windfall. Much of our consumption of sport domestically is substitution from one good to another. Income effects are felt from international sports tourism. Attracting this remains a challenge for many sports here. But again, the study of sports economics is much more. It can explain why we fund sport and how it is funded. It questions how we structure our games, and importantly, what happens when we change the rules. It attempts to explain far more than headline figures of income and profit. This is quite apt. Sport after all, is much more than money. It is about decision-making both on and off the field of play. Economics is the examination of decision making. They are a natural fit.

// 13


SPECIAL REPORT

COLLABORATION DRIVING SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS BY PETER BYRNE

CEO, SOUTH DUBLIN CHAMBER

South Dublin partnership to deliver Sustainable Business Programme, awarded the ‘Local Authority Collaboration’ Award at the National Chamber of Ireland Awards 2019. In 2011, South Dublin Chamber and South Dublin County Council came together as partners to form the Business Sustainability Programme. This partnership sought to empower business to consider the sustainability and long-term future of their companies while supporting job creation at a local level. The programme was developed in response to the challenges business faced during the recession and its goal was to pool resources to help local businesses survive the recession. However it has evolved into a program aimed at assisting local businesses become more sustainable and increase local employment. The core objective of the program is to provide an experienced “Programme Manager” to support business owners and managers by linking them to state agencies, signposting relevant supports and assist in guiding them through the process. The Business Sustainability Programme is unique as it is the only programme of its kind in Ireland or the UK and takes an innovative approach to helping business solve problems; providing a mechanism to allow for local government and private business to work closely in a partnership model for the benefit of the local economy. It has also created new ways of working that allows for synergies to be formed that offer business a better support service.

14 //

The success of the programme was achieved by actively engaging with local companies, to support business development and job creation in the local community. This initiative was further enhanced with the Local Enterprise Office (LEO) South Dublin joining as a partner in 2014. The Business Sustainability Programme was awarded the ‘Local Authority Collaboration’ Award at the National Chamber of Ireland Awards in March 2019. Chief Executive of Chambers Ireland, Ian Talbot highlighted the unique partnership South Dublin Chamber has formed with Local Government in Ireland.

We already use this program as an example of best practice for other Chambers of Commerce in Ireland and I look forward to seeing the Business Sustainability Programme being replicated in other countries, securing benefits for the partners and the business community” The programme also ensures synergy between South Dublin Chamber and South Dublin County Council in other areas of business, including tourism. The Sustainable Business Programme has been the catalyst for many positive events taking place in the local area for the benefit of the community and business. An example of this is Gaelforce Dublin Adventure Race which takes in running, cycling and kayaking in the lakes, mountains and county capital of Tallaght.


ECONOMIC SCORECARD

DUBLIN: ECONOMIC SCORECARD MAY 2019 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years and housing completions which cover the past 6 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.

economy ihs markit business pmi q1 2019

46

unemployment rate q4 2018

51

8

40

57

56.1

34

mastercard spendingpulse sales index

110

10

7

105

12

4.9

63

3 month moving average (sa)

115 120

122

100

14

% (sa)

125

index (2014 = 100)

transport airport arrivals q4 2018

6,030

6,710

5,360

7.8 7,380

8,052

4,690

seaport cargo q1 2019

8.4

7.1

9.8

50.9

48 9.1

6.4

000's/quarter

public transport trips q4 2018

9.8

million tonnes/quarter (sa)

45.1

42.2

53.8

56.7

million trips/quarter (sa)

residential property average residential rents q4 2018

1,250

1,390

1,120

981

residential property price index feb 2019

1,650

65

97

105

55

â‚Ź/quarter

1,200

800

87

76 1,520

housing completions q4 2018

108

500

121

index 2005 = 100

1,500

1,892 units/quarter

commercial property dublin city centre office rent q1 2019

460

540

380

296

dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q1 2019

14 620

700 â‚Ź/sq.m.

700

dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q1 2019

9

25

3.9

17

14

20 10

30

%

21

6.2

25

%

sources: cso, pmi markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents prtb; commercial property cbre research

// 15


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