Page 1

Global Economics Analyst Third Quarter 2011

„„ Economies at a Glance with main forecasts „„ Refer to ERWIN on Goldman 360 for additional forecasts and historical data


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Contents World Outlook

1

Main Economic Forecasts

2

Country Reports—Europe cont’ Netherlands ...................................................... 35 Norway ............................................................. 35 Poland ............................................................... 36 Russia ............................................................... 36 Spain ................................................................. 37 Sweden ............................................................. 37 Switzerland ....................................................... 38 Turkey ............................................................... 38 Ukraine ............................................................. 39 United Kingdom ................................................ 39

Summary ................................................................... 2

Interest Rate Forecasts

4

G3, Europe, Americas and Asia ................................ 4 Policy Rate Forecasts ................................................ 5

Exchange Rate Forecasts

6

Dollar Crosses ........................................................... 6 Euro Crosses.............................................................. 7

Monetary and Fiscal Conditions

8

Broad Money Growth ................................................ 8 Budget Balances ....................................................... 9 Government Debt Ratio........................................... 10

Demand and Output

25

CPI Inflation ............................................................. 25 GDP Deflators.......................................................... 26 Commodity Prices.................................................... 27

Country Reports—G3

28

United States .......................................................... 28 Japan....................................................................... 29 Euroland .................................................................. 30

Country Reports—Europe

31

Czech Republic ........................................................ 31 Denmark .................................................................. 31 France ...................................................................... 32 Germany .................................................................. 32 Greece ..................................................................... 33 Hungary ................................................................... 33 Italy.......................................................................... 34 Kazakhstan .............................................................. 34

40

Egypt ................................................................. 40 Israel ................................................................. 40 Nigeria .............................................................. 41 South Africa ...................................................... 41

11

Real GDP ................................................................. 11 Real GDP—Since 2002 and 10-Year Trend ............ 12 Real GDP per Capita %yoy...................................... 13 Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy) .... 14 Nominal GDP—Level .............................................. 15 Nominal GDP ........................................................... 16 Consumer Expenditure ............................................ 17 Fixed Investment ..................................................... 18 Domestic Demand ................................................... 19 Exports of Goods and Services ............................... 20 Imports of Goods and Services ............................... 21 Current Account ...................................................... 22 Industrial Production ............................................... 23 Unemployment Rate................................................ 24

Prices

Country Reports—Africa & Middle East

Asia

42 Australia ........................................................... 42 China ................................................................. 42 Hong Kong ........................................................ 43 India .................................................................. 43 Indonesia .......................................................... 44 Malaysia ........................................................... 44 New Zealand .................................................... 45 Philippines ........................................................ 45 Singapore.......................................................... 46 South Korea ...................................................... 46 Taiwan .............................................................. 47 Thailand ............................................................ 47 Vietnam ............................................................ 48

Latin America and Canada

49

Argentina .......................................................... 49 Brazil ................................................................. 49 Chile .................................................................. 50 Colombia ........................................................... 50 Dominican Republic .......................................... 51 Ecuador ............................................................. 51 Mexico .............................................................. 52 Panama ............................................................. 52 Peru ................................................................... 53 Venezuela ......................................................... 53 Canada .............................................................. 54

Size of the World

55

World Data

56

World Exports ................................................... 56 World Imports ................................................... 58

Note: Forecasts are in bold in tables and after the dotted line in charts. Interest rates are end-period unless otherwise stated. The source for all tables/charts is Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research unless otherwise stated. All regional aggregates reflect GS coverage. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US Dollars based on the ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

World Outlook Still Healthy Global Growth, but Risks Dominate The global economy appears to have slowed from the rapid rates seen in Q1, although growth is still at reasonably healthy levels. But as we move into the second half of the year, the risks to our relatively benign view of the global outlook are now clearly in focus. Our 2011 and 2012 global growth forecasts have come down, and now stand at 4.3% and 4.7%, compared with 4.8% and 4.9% a quarter ago. The most important shift has been in our US growth views: our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are now at 2.3% and 3.0%, from 3.1% and 3.8%. To a significant degree, this reflects a much softer H1 growth outcome than we initially expected. The biggest contributions at the country level outside the US are in China, where our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are lower than at the start of the year, and in Japan for 2011, where the earthquake has seen us lower our 2011 forecast substantially but raise the 2012 forecast due to the subsequent rebuilding.

much of the recent slowing is transitory. We are beginning to see some of the temporary pressures reverse and we expect growth to pick up in the near term. But as we look into 2011H2 and into 2012, particularly with the chances of more fiscal drag than we originally envisaged, it is harder to be sure that the US can maintain abovetrend growth moving into next year. This has made us more comfortable with our US rate call (we expect shortterm rates to stay low as the Fed remains on hold through 2012), but less comfortable with the cyclical view. The European sovereign crisis is also firmly back in focus. So far, our view that the Euro-zone economy would on average hold up well on German strength and lead to an earlier ECB tightening has served us well. However, the growth divergence between core countries and periphery remains, with peripheral economies stagnating at best. And we are more concerned than we have been for some time that pressure on other European sovereigns could lead to larger stresses. In the UK, official data continue to imply an anaemic recovery in growth. But with inflation at more than twice the MPC’s target, there remains a three-way split on the committee, with some members advocating hikes, others for more QE, and a majority in favour of no change. We forecast a 25bp hike in Q4, although the risks are now almost exclusively skewed towards a later move.

Despite weaker growth, inflation outcomes have in general been higher than we had expected, in large part due to the impact of faster commodity price acceleration earlier in the year on headline inflation rates. But for the US it applies to core inflation rates too. As a result, for the first half of the year, the reality has been less growth and a worse growthinflation trade-off than we had initially foreseen. Reflecting that reality, our forecasts for year-end price levels in major equity markets are lower than they were last December (although still well above current levels), while our forecasts for yields and oil prices are higher.

Beyond Europe, the other central issue is whether tightening and inflation pressures in EM will moderate as we have been forecasting. For several of the large emerging markets, China most importantly, inflation picked up more than we expected going into the year, and policy tightening has remained more intense for longer than we had expected. Here, our conviction remains, and we still expect policy to become less restrictive (although not as loose as in 2010H2). More broadly, we expect commodity price relief to become more visible in inflation and wage outcomes in EM in H2 and we think the risk of an overly rapid EM growth slowdown is overstated.

Since then, three other risks—each of which we had flagged as a central risk to our outlook—have intensified: headwinds to underlying US demand; the Euro-zone sovereign crisis; and Chinese and emerging market (EM) inflation and tightening. How each is resolved is likely to determine much of what happens to the global economy and markets in the second half of the year. The biggest issue probably still relates to where the underlying pace of growth in the US will settle, and how Main Economic Forecasts Real GDP (%)

2010

4 3

2011

5 4

2012

6 5

Consumer Price Inflation (%)

2010

4 3

2011

5 4

2012

World

Latest Previous

5.1 5.1

4.3 4.8

4.7 4.9

World

Latest Previous

3.4 3.3

4.5 4.0

5 3.4 3.2

Advanced Economies

Latest Previous

3.0 3.0

2.1 2.6

2.8 3.1

Advanced Economies

Latest Previous

1.6 1.6

2.9 2.4

2.1 1.7

Emerging Markets

Latest Previous

7.9 7.9

7.0 7.5

6.9 7.2

Emerging Markets

Latest Previous

5.8 5.7

6.6 6.0

5.1 5.0

USA

Latest Previous

2.9 2.9

2.3 3.1

3.0 3.8

USA

Latest Previous

1.6 1.7

3.2 2.5

2.2 1.6

Japan

Latest Previous

4.0 3.9

-0.8 0.7

3.0 2.3

Japan

Latest Previous

-0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.2

0.3 0.2

Euroland

Latest Previous

1.7 1.7

2.1 2.1

1.7 1.9

Euroland

Latest Previous

1.6 1.6

2.7 2.6

2.0 1.9

6

Previous data w ere published in the Global Economics Analyst dated April 15, 2011.

Volume 9, Issue 3

1

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Main Economic Forecasts Summary Real GDP, %chg, yoy G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates BRICS G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.6 -4.1 -6.3

2.9 1.7 4.0

2.3 2.1 -0.8

3.0 1.7 3.0

1.3 -2.8 -2.6 -4.7 -5.2 -3.5 -3.7 -5.3 -1.9 -4.9

2.7 3.2 1.4 3.5 1.2 1.6 -0.1 5.4 2.8 1.4

2.0 2.9 2.1 3.3 1.3 2.3 1.1 4.6 2.1 1.9

4.0 3.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.1 2.6

9.2 -2.7 8.0 4.6 -1.6 1.1 -0.8 0.3 -1.9 -2.3

10.3 7.0 8.5 6.1 7.2 7.6 14.5 6.2 10.9 7.8

9.4 5.2 7.5 6.2 5.4 5.2 5.5 4.3 4.7 3.8

9.2 5.2 7.8 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 4.4 4.9 4.2

-4.0 -6.7 1.6 -7.9 -1.7 -4.8

2.2 1.2 3.8 4.0 2.9 8.9

2.5 2.5 4.3 5.3 3.5 7.5

2.7 2.6 4.3 5.6 4.1 3.5

0.9 -0.6 -1.7 -6.1 -3.2

9.2 7.5 5.2 5.4 -1.5

7.7 4.5 6.6 4.4 4.0

3.2 4.0 5.4 4.5 4.3

5.6 -3.7 -4.0 -0.5 6.5 -1.0 -1.8 3.4 -3.3 -0.6

8.8 2.8 1.8 5.0 9.2 3.0 6.3 7.9 3.0 5.1

7.9 1.9 2.2 4.3 7.8 3.6 5.0 7.0 2.1 4.3

7.9 2.7 2.1 4.7 7.9 3.7 4.3 6.9 2.8 4.7

Consumer Prices, %chg, yoy G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates BRICS G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.3 0.3 -1.4

1.6 1.6 -0.7

3.2 2.7 0.7

2.2 2.0 0.3

1.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 2.2

2.8 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.6 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.7 3.3

3.6 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.0 0.6 4.2

3.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.8 2.2

-0.7 0.6 3.8 4.8 0.6 3.2 0.6 2.8 -0.9 -0.9

3.3 2.4 9.6 5.1 1.7 3.8 2.8 3.0 1.0 3.3

4.7 5.3 8.6 6.3 3.7 5.0 4.2 4.2 2.3 4.1

3.0 5.0 5.1 6.4 3.7 5.0 3.3 3.7 2.4 3.8

1.0 4.2 3.5 11.7 7.1 6.3

1.5 4.9 2.6 6.8 4.3 8.6

2.2 3.9 4.5 8.7 4.9 6.5

2.4 4.3 3.3 6.4 6.0 7.7

6.3 4.9 1.5 5.3 28.6

10.5 5.2 1.4 4.2 29.1

9.7 6.6 3.3 3.4 26.6

12.6 6.5 3.5 3.6 21.3

2.5 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 6.2 3.8 0.2 1.7

5.4 1.4 2.0 3.1 4.7 2.7 6.2 5.8 1.6 3.4

6.2 2.7 3.0 4.2 5.6 3.9 6.7 6.6 2.9 4.5

4.2 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.8 3.3 6.5 5.1 2.1 3.4

For India we use WPI not CPI. Asia consists of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

2

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Summary (continued) Current Account, % of GDP G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.7 -0.3 2.8

-3.2 -0.4 3.6

-3.1 -0.5 2.0

-3.4 -0.1 1.9

-4.2 -3.0 -1.5 5.6 -2.0 4.9 -5.2 7.0 11.5 -1.7

-2.6 -3.1 -1.8 5.6 -3.5 7.2 -4.6 6.3 14.6 -3.2

-2.8 -2.3 -1.9 4.3 -4.0 9.3 -3.0 6.4 16.1 -1.5

-4.9 -1.7 -1.2 4.1 -4.0 9.0 -2.8 6.5 15.8 -0.6

6.0 8.6 -2.8 2.0 16.5 5.8 19.1 3.9 11.4 8.3

5.2 6.6 -2.6 0.8 11.5 4.2 22.2 2.8 9.3 4.6

4.8 7.4 -3.4 0.3 11.1 3.5 21.6 1.3 8.1 5.1

4.3 8.7 -3.8 0.6 10.8 3.5 22.8 0.5 8.1 4.5

-3.2 0.4 -2.2 4.0 -3.9 -2.1

-3.8 2.1 -3.4 4.7 -2.8 -6.5

-2.8 1.9 -3.9 4.3 -4.0 -8.5

-3.0 0.6 -4.3 2.8 -4.5 -7.0

3.6 -1.6 1.6 -0.7 2.6

0.8 -2.3 1.9 -0.5 6.0

-0.2 -2.3 0.5 -0.5 6.2

-0.1 -2.9 -0.1 -0.6 3.0

-0.7 -0.3 -0.2 4.9 -2.0 -0.4 2.3 -0.4 0.3

-1.0 -0.6 -0.4 4.0 -2.6 -1.1 1.6 -0.5 0.1

-1.2 -0.4 -0.5 3.5 -2.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.0

-1.3 0.0 -0.6 3.2 -3.2 -1.6 1.0 -0.5 0.0

Gen. Govt. Balance, % of GDP G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-10.3 -6.3 -9.8

-10.1 -6.0 -9.5

-8.9 -4.4 -10.2

-8.6 -3.6 -10.1

-3.3 0.3 -7.5 -3.0 -5.3 -5.4 -11.1 -1.2 0.2 -8.2

-3.7 -1.8 -7.7 -3.5 -5.0 -6.5 -9.2 -0.4 -0.4 -9.4

-1.9 -1.2 -6.3 -2.7 -3.9 -4.7 -6.8 0.6 -0.3 -8.0

-0.3 -0.3 -6.0 -1.6 -3.3 -4.0 -5.6 1.7 -0.2 -5.8

-2.2 1.6 -8.7 -1.6 -6.8 -3.9 -1.7 -1.7 -3.5 -4.0

-1.6 -2.8 -7.6 -2.0 -4.7 -3.5 5.4 -0.4 -3.2 -1.0

-1.3 0.3 -8.1 -2.3 -5.3 -4.0 7.7 0.2 -2.0 -0.9

-1.0 1.5 -7.5 -2.1 -5.1 -2.5 3.5 1.1 -1.0 -0.3

-5.8 -4.5 -7.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.5

-4.7 -4.3 -7.9 -4.0 -4.3 -3.6

-4.1 2.5 -5.5 -0.1 -5.5 -1.0

-3.3 -3.0 -3.5 0.0 -4.9 -2.0

-0.6 -3.3 -4.4 -2.3 -5.5

0.2 -2.6 -0.4 -2.8 -3.3

-0.2 -3.0 2.8 -2.5 -2.4

-1.1 -2.9 2.0 -2.3 -2.4

-8.4 -6.5 -6.4 -3.7 -6.5 -2.8 -3.8 -7.5 -6.0

-8.4 -6.4

-7.6 -4.8 -5.1 -2.7 -3.9 -2.2 -2.6 -6.2 -4.6

-7.0 -3.8 -4.6 – -3.4 -2.2 -2.3 -5.6 -4.1

-6.0 -2.9 -6.6 -2.2 -3.0 -7.4 -5.5

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

3

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Interest Rate Forecasts G3, Europe, Americas and Asia G3 & Key Spreads % US Japan-US Euroland-US

3M 10Y 10Y 10Y

Current* 0.3 2.9 -184 -18

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.3 3.0 3.5 -187 -210 -21 -28

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 3.1 3.8 -192 -215 -24 -28

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.7 0.5 3.3 4.0 -202 -220 -32 -53

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.5 1.2 1.1 3.3 4.0 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.8 3.1 3.2 4.5 4.3 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.3 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 1.4 1.6 3.0 3.0 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.1 5.4 5.5 9.2 9.9

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 1.4 1.6 3.5 4.5 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.8 2.9 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.6 4.5 0.4 1.3 1.7 2.8 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.9 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.5 6.1 6.3 7.3 7.3 5.5 5.5 9.6 10.7

Europe % 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 5Y 3M 5Y 3M 5Y 3M 3M

Euroland UK Denmark Sweden Norway Switzerland Poland Czech Republic Hungary Russia Turkey South Africa

3M 5Y

Current* 1.6 2.8 0.8 3.1 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.4 0.2 1.6 4.6 5.3 1.2 2.8 6.1 7.1 4.7 8.8 5.6 7.4

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.8 3.2 3.8 1.9 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.5 2.6 3.0 4.5 4.0 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.0 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.6 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.9 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.0 4.8 5.5 9.2 9.3 5.7 7.6

5.5 7.7

5.9 7.8

6.0 8.0

6.5 8.1

6.7 8.2

Americas 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 3M 3M

Current* 0.3 2.9 1.2 2.9 9.5 12.3 5.3 4.5

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.3 3.0 3.5 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.5 na 9.6 na 12.8 na 4.5 na 4.5

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 3.1 3.8 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.8 na 9.8 na 13.3 na 4.5 na 4.5

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.7 0.5 3.3 4.0 1.8 2.6 3.2 4.3 na 9.5 na 13.3 na 5.5 na 5.5

3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M

Current* 0.2 1.1 4.9 5.0 2.8 5.0 0.3 7.1 0.9 3.6 3.6 0.4 3.4

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.5 3.1 2.7 na 5.8 0.4 0.4 7.0 7.4 0.8 0.9 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.8 0.3 0.4 3.7 3.6

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.6 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.8 3.3 2.7 na 6.0 0.5 0.5 5.8 7.6 0.9 1.0 3.9 4.2 3.3 4.0 0.7 0.5 3.7 3.9

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.8 4.7 5.2 5.1 6.0 3.7 3.8 na 6.3 0.6 0.5 7.1 8.1 0.9 1.2 3.9 4.7 3.6 4.5 0.6 0.6 3.7 4.4

% US Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico

Asia % Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong Indonesia Taiwan Korea Philippines Singapore Thailand

Close 19 July 11, mid-rates for major markets. We are currently using September 2011, December 2011 and June 2012 contracts for 3-month forw ard rates. For more details on our Interest Rate Forecasts please see The FI Monthly Analyst. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

4

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Policy Rate Forecasts Policy Rates (%, eop) 2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

2011 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

G3 USA

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Euroland

1.0

1.0

1.8

2.5

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

Japan

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Czech Republic

1.0

0.8

1.3

1.8

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.8

Hungary

6.3

5.8

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

EMEA

Israel

1.0

2.0

3.8

5.0

2.5

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.5

4.8

5.0

Norway

1.8

2.0

2.8

3.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

Poland

3.5

3.5

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.5

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Russia

6.3

5.0

6.0

7.3

5.3

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.8

7.0

South Africa

7.0

5.5

6.0

8.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Sweden

0.3

1.3

2.8

3.8

1.5

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

Switzerland

0.3

0.3

0.8

2.8

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

Turkey

7.0

6.5

7.3

9.3

6.3

6.3

6.8

7.3

7.8

8.3

8.8

9.3

UK

0.5

0.5

0.8

2.0

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

2.0 13.3

AMERICAS Brazil

8.8

10.8

13.3

13.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Canada

0.3

1.0

1.8

2.5

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

Chile

0.5

3.3

6.0

6.5

4.0

5.3

5.8

6.0

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Colombia

3.5

3.0

5.0

6.0

3.5

4.3

4.5

5.0

5.3

5.3

6.0

6.0

Dominican Republic

4.0

5.0

9.0

9.0

6.0

6.8

8.3

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Mexico

4.5

4.5

4.5

5.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

5.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

Peru

1.3

3.0

4.5

4.5

3.8

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

ASIA Australia

3.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

China

5.3

5.8

6.6

6.6

6.1

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

India

5.0

6.8

8.0

7.5

7.5

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.8

7.5

7.5

Indonesia

6.5

6.5

7.3

8.0

6.8

6.8

7.0

7.3

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.0

Malaysia

2.0

2.8

3.5

3.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

New Zealand

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.8

3.8

Philippines

4.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

4.3

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.8

6.0

South Korea

2.0

2.5

3.8

4.3

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.3

Taiwan

1.3

1.6

2.3

2.9

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.9

Thailand

1.3

2.0

3.5

4.0

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

Volume 9, Issue 3

5

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Exchange Rate Forecasts Dollar Crosses 3-Month Horizon Current*

Forward

Forecast

6-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

12-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

5-Yr Forecast**

G3 EUR/$

1.41

1.41

1.45

1.41

1.50

1.40

1.55

1.18

$/JPY

79.19

79.14

82.00

79.04

82.00

78.76

86.00

107.93

ÂŁ/$

1.61

1.61

1.61

1.61

1.67

1.61

1.85

1.51

$/NOK

5.53

5.56

5.31

5.60

5.13

5.66

4.90

6.34

$/SEK

6.51

6.55

6.00

6.58

5.73

6.65

5.55

7.09

$/CHF

0.82

0.82

0.85

0.82

0.82

0.82

0.81

1.20

EMEA

$/CZK

17.33

17.34

16.69

17.34

15.90

17.37

15.23

19.39

$/HUF

192.10

194.18

185.52

196.16

180.67

199.52

174.84

241.46

$/PLN

2.84

2.87

2.73

2.89

2.64

2.93

2.54

3.01

$/RUB

28.07

28.34

27.10

28.62

25.90

29.23

25.10

30.00

$/TRY

1.66

1.69

1.65

1.71

1.57

1.77

1.47

2.25

$/ILS

3.43

3.45

3.40

3.47

3.35

3.50

3.20

4.26

$/ZAR

6.99

7.08

7.00

7.18

6.80

7.38

6.45

6.50

Americas $/ARS

4.12

4.23

4.15

4.35

4.25

4.64

4.50

6.00

$/BRL

1.57

1.60

1.50

1.63

1.60

1.70

1.70

2.70

$/C$

0.95

0.95

0.96

0.95

0.94

0.96

0.92

1.13

$/MXN

11.66

11.76

11.55

11.87

11.50

12.10

11.50

12.51

$/CLP

461.83

466.83

460.00

471.60

460.00

481.83

460.00

409.42

$/PEN

2.74

2.75

2.78

2.77

2.80

2.79

2.82

2.96

$/COP

1757.35

1764.20

1750.00

1770.40

1750.00

1786.10

1800.00

2133.93

$/VEF

4.29

na

4.30

na

4.30

na

4.30

7.00

Asia A$/$

1.07

1.06

1.05

1.05

1.06

1.03

1.06

0.85

$/CNY

6.46

6.45

6.37

6.43

6.28

6.40

6.10

5.50

$/HKD

7.80

7.79

7.80

7.79

7.80

7.77

7.80

7.80

$/INR

44.45

45.00

46.00

45.53

46.20

46.53

47.00

56.00

$/KRW

1055.60

1062.10

1040.00

1067.10

1030.00

1074.10

1010.00

975.00

$/MYR

3.00

3.01

2.98

3.02

2.90

3.04

2.85

2.69

NZ$/$

0.86

0.85

0.78

0.84

0.79

0.83

0.80

0.63

$/SGD

1.22

1.22

1.23

1.21

1.21

1.21

1.18

1.15

$/TWD

28.89

28.79

28.00

28.61

27.80

28.30

27.50

26.20

$/THB

29.91

30.10

29.75

30.26

29.50

30.61

29.30

35.83

$/IDR

8535.00

8592.50

8500.00

8680.00

8450.00

8860.00

8350.00

10738.63

$/PHP

42.80

42.94

41.30

43.05

40.80

43.27

40.30

50.00

* Close 19 July 11 **5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch". For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

6

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Euro Crosses 3-Month Horizon Current*

Forward

Forecast

6-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

12-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

5-Yr Forecast**

G3 EUR/$

1.41

1.41

1.45

1.41

1.50

1.40

1.55

1.18

111.92

111.55

118.90

111.15

123.00

110.32

133.30

127.58

EUR/ÂŁ

0.88

0.88

0.90

0.87

0.90

0.87

0.84

0.78

EUR/NOK

7.81

7.84

7.70

7.87

7.70

7.93

7.60

7.50

EUR/SEK

9.21

9.23

8.70

9.25

8.60

9.31

8.60

8.38

EUR/CHF

1.16

1.16

1.23

1.16

1.23

1.15

1.25

1.42

EUR/JPY EMEA

EUR/CZK

24.49

24.44

24.20

24.39

23.85

24.33

23.60

22.92

EUR/HUF

271.50

273.71

269.00

275.86

271.00

279.46

271.00

285.42

EUR/PLN

4.02

4.04

3.96

4.06

3.96

4.10

3.93

3.56

EUR/RUB

39.67

39.95

39.30

40.26

38.85

40.94

38.91

35.46

EUR/TRY

2.34

2.38

2.39

2.41

2.36

2.48

2.28

2.67

EUR/ILS

4.85

4.87

4.93

4.88

5.03

4.91

4.96

5.04

EUR/ZAR

9.88

9.98

10.15

10.09

10.20

10.34

10.00

7.69

Americas EUR/ARS

5.83

5.96

6.02

6.11

6.38

6.50

6.98

7.09

EUR/BRL

2.21

2.25

2.18

2.29

2.40

2.38

2.64

3.19

EUR/C$

1.34

1.34

1.39

1.34

1.41

1.34

1.43

1.33

EUR/MXN

16.48

16.58

16.75

16.69

17.25

16.95

17.83

14.78

EUR/CLP

652.72

658.03

667.00

663.23

690.00

674.88

713.00

483.95

EUR/PEN

3.87

3.88

4.03

3.89

4.20

3.91

4.37

3.50

EUR/COP

2483.77

2486.81

2537.50

2489.79

2625.00

2501.75

2790.00

2522.41

EUR/VEF

6.07

na

6.24

na

6.45

na

6.67

8.27

Asia EUR/A$

1.32

1.33

1.38

1.34

1.42

1.36

1.46

1.39

EUR/CNY

9.14

9.09

9.24

9.04

9.42

8.96

9.46

6.50

EUR/HKD

11.02

10.98

11.31

10.95

11.70

10.89

12.09

9.22

EUR/INR

62.82

63.43

66.70

64.03

69.30

65.18

72.85

66.19

EUR/KRW

1491.94

1497.13

1508.00

1500.71

1545.00

1504.47

1565.50

1152.50

EUR/MYR

4.24

4.25

4.32

4.25

4.35

4.26

4.42

3.18

EUR/NZD

1.65

1.66

1.86

1.66

1.90

1.68

1.94

1.88

EUR/SGD

1.72

1.71

1.78

1.71

1.82

1.70

1.83

1.36

EUR/TWD

40.83

40.58

40.60

40.23

41.70

39.63

42.63

30.97

EUR/THB

42.27

42.43

43.14

42.55

44.25

42.87

45.42

42.36

EUR/IDR

12063.03

12111.95

12325.00

12207.07

12675.00

12410.02

12942.50

12693.59

EUR/PHP

60.49

60.53

59.89

60.54

61.20

60.60

62.47

59.10

* Close 19 July 11 **5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch". For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

7

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Monetary and Fiscal Conditions Broad Money Growth % chg

%chg

Broad Money Growth

12

Japan USA World

10

Broad Money Growth

16 Euroland

14

UK

12

8

10 8

6

6 4

4 2

2

0

0 -2

-2 02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

-4

12

Broad Money, % change, yoy

03

04

05

2010

06

07

08

09

10

2011

11

12

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Australia

8.3

5.1

4.1

3.2

5.4

8.0

7.6

Q4 –

Brazil

6.4

20.8

14.0

12.5

16.0

14.7

20.8

24.6

21.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.5

11.5

10.5

10.0

Canada

24.1

-2.9

5.3

6.9

7.5

6.4

5.6

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.8

6.7

7.0

7.0

7.0

Chile

-1.4

11.2

14.0

12.0

4.2

6.4

5.4

11.2

11.3

16.8

13.6

14.0

14.0

15.0

15.0

12.0

China

27.6

19.7

16.0

16.0

22.5

18.5

19.0

19.7

16.6

15.9

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

Denmark

3.2

9.3

5.6

3.7

2.4

3.5

6.4

5.4

3.7

3.6

3.8

5.6

5.0

4.5

4.1

3.7

Ecuador

10.6

19.0

6.9

-2.7

Euroland

-0.1

1.6

4.2

6.2

-0.1

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.0

2.3

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.2

6.2

6.2

Hong Kong

10.7

7.8

5.0

5.0

9.8

3.3

8.9

7.8

7.3

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

India

17.5

16.1

17.1

17.0

15.2

15.6

19.1

16.1

17.6

17.0

17.1

17.1

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

Indonesia

13.0

15.4

18.0

20.3

10.2

12.8

12.7

15.4

16.1

17.0

17.0

18.0

18.5

19.1

19.7

20.3

Japan

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

Malaysia

9.2

7.0

10.0

9.0

8.7

8.8

8.5

7.0

8.2

9.0

10.0

10.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Mexico

6.5

12.9

7.1

10.7

13.0

12.9

13.2

Peru

5.5

45.3

-2.8

0.7

16.3

20.9

26.5

45.3

32.9

34.6

17.4

-2.8

4.5

1.0

8.8

0.7

Philippines

7.7

10.7

15.0

16.7

9.8

9.6

10.1

10.7

10.6

14.0

15.0

15.0

15.5

15.9

16.3

16.7

Singapore

10.5

8.4

7.0

7.0

8.2

6.9

7.8

8.4

8.6

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

South Africa

5.7

4.3

South Korea

9.4

12.1

9.7

9.6

9.7

8.9

7.1

12.1

9.1

8.5

9.2

9.7

8.2

8.4

8.2

9.6

Sweden

-1.5

9.3

4.6

5.4

2.3

2.7

8.0

9.3

8.8

7.0

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

5.1

5.4

6.0

6.7

5.6

6.7

5.7

7.4

6.7

7.0

6.0

5.5

5.3

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.3

Switzerland Taiwan

5.7

5.3

5.0

5.0

4.0

4.0

4.7

5.3

5.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Thailand

6.8

10.9

7.0

7.0

6.1

7.0

9.9

10.9

13.2

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

11.5

10.6

9.6

8.7

11.2

11.1

10.9

10.6

10.3

10.1

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.1

8.9

8.7

UK USA

7.9

2.3

5.1

4.6

1.8

1.6

2.5

3.2

4.5

6.2

4.9

4.8

4.7

3.7

5.2

5.0

21.2

21.0

29.0

27.0

20.9

17.7

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

25.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

27.0

Advanced Economies

5.5

3.0

4.7

5.1

2.6

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.2

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.9

4.7

5.3

5.3

World

9.1

7.6

7.1

6.5

7.5

8.0

8.0

Venezuela

Definitions: Brazil, M4; Canada, M2; Chile, M3 eop; China, M2; Ecuador, M2; Euroland, M3; Hong Kong, M2; India, M3; Indonesia, M2; Japan, M2; Malaysia, M3; Philippines, M2; Singapore, M3; South Korea, M3; Switzerland, M3; Taiwan, M2; Thailand, M2; UK, M4; USA, M2; Venezuela, M2 eop. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Australia: Currency + all ADI deposits of the private non-ADI sector + non-deposit borrowings from the private sector by AFIs - holdings of currency and bank deposits by RFCs and cash management trusts. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

8

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Budget Balances

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

-3.3

-3.7

-1.9

-0.3

Brazil

-3.3

-2.6

-3.0

-2.9

Canada

0.3

-1.8

-1.2

-0.3

0.0

Chile

-4.4

-0.4

2.8

2.0

-95.1

-85.8

China

-2.2

-1.6

-1.3

-1.0

-10.1

-9.9

-8.6

Colombia

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-2.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Czech Republic

-5.8

-4.7

-4.1

-3.3

-8.5

-15.2

-13.8

-10.9

Denmark

-2.7

-4.8

-4.2

-3.2

Ecuador

-2.2

-1.2

-3.7

-4.0

Ecuador

-4.3

-2.1

-6.0

-6.0

Euroland

-789.6

-742.5

-604.9

-521.0

Euroland

-6.3

-6.0

-4.4

-3.6

France

-198.6

-201.0

-184.6

-184.7

France

-7.5

-7.7

-6.3

-6.0

Germany

-101.6

-117.7

-100.8

-63.1

Germany

-3.0

-3.5

-2.7

-1.6

3.3

-6.6

0.6

4.0

Hong Kong

1.6

-2.8

0.3

1.5

-5.8

-5.7

3.8

-4.9

Hungary

-4.5

-4.3

2.5

-3.0

-120.3

-131.6

-165.4

-169.5

India

-8.7

-7.6

-8.1

-7.5

-8.6

-14.2

-19.0

-20.7

Indonesia

-1.6

-2.0

-2.3

-2.1

Italy

-112.6

-104.0

-90.4

-81.6

Italy

-5.3

-5.0

-3.9

-3.3

Japan

-492.7

-508.7

-571.4

-557.4

Japan

-9.8

-9.5

-10.2

-10.1

Kazakhstan

-2.9

-2.5

-2.9

-1.8

Malaysia

-6.8

-4.7

-5.3

-5.1

Gen Govt Bal, US$bn

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

-32.4

-44.3

-28.1

-4.7

Brazil

-53.1

-53.5

-77.3

-76.2

Canada

5.0

-30.0

-20.0

-5.0

Chile

0.0

0.0

0.0

-108.3

-96.2

Colombia

-6.7

Czech Republic

-0.6

Denmark

China

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia

Kazakhstan Malaysia Mexico

-3.3

-3.6

-5.0

-3.6

-13.2

-11.2

-15.1

-16.2

-2.3

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

-43.0

-51.5

-42.0

-37.9

Peru

-2.1

-0.8

-0.3

0.2

Philippines

-6.3

-7.0

-9.4

Poland

-9.8

-12.4

Russia

-71.3

-58.0

-3.1 -17.4

Netherlands

Singapore South Africa South Korea

Gen Govt Bal, % of GDP

Mexico

-2.3

-2.8

-2.5

-2.3

Netherlands

-5.4

-6.5

-4.7

-4.0

Peru

-1.6

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

-6.5

Philippines

-3.9

-3.5

-4.0

-2.5

-10.6

-7.6

Poland

-7.3

-7.9

-5.5

-3.5

0.0

2.9

Russia

-5.9

-4.0

-0.1

0.0

12.0

20.7

10.6

Singapore

-1.7

5.4

7.7

3.5

-15.7

-23.3

-23.9

South Africa

-6.0

-4.3

-5.5

-4.9

South Korea

-13.8

-4.2

2.7

14.4

-163.5

-132.5

-108.6

-94.8

-4.7

-1.9

3.4

10.5

Sweden

-1.2

-0.4

0.6

1.7

1.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.3

Switzerland

0.2

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

Taiwan

-13.1

-13.6

-10.2

-5.3

Taiwan

-3.5

-3.2

-2.0

-1.0

Thailand

-10.6

-3.1

-3.3

-1.1

Thailand

-4.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.3

Turkey

-33.7

-26.5

-7.9

-18.8

Turkey

-5.5

-3.6

-1.0

-2.0

-174.0

-213.0

-215.6

-169.7

UK

-8.2

-9.4

-8.0

-5.8

-1450.0

-1475.3

-1363.5

-1371.1

-10.3

-10.1

-8.9

-8.6

-4.0

-1.5

-0.5

-0.5

Venezuela

-5.5

-3.3

-2.4

-2.4

-2988.6

-3064.0

-2809.3

-2619.9

Advanced Economies

-7.5

-7.4

-6.2

-5.6

Emerging Markets

-3.8

-3.0

-2.6

-2.3

World

-6.0

-5.5

-4.6

-4.1

Spain Sweden Switzerland

UK USA Venezuela Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

-473.1

-444.2

-441.1

-437.8

-3461.7

-3508.3

-3250.4

-3057.7

Spain

USA

-1.7

-0.4

0.2

1.1

-11.1

-9.2

-6.8

-5.6

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

9

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Government Debt Ratio

Govt Debt Ratio % GDP

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

24.6

21.8

13.0

13.2

21.0

28.7

30.5

30.2

Brazil

46.5

47.3

45.5

38.5

42.8

40.4

39.8

39.0

Canada

71.6

70.3

66.5

71.3

83.4

84.0

7.3

5.3

4.1

5.2

6.1

7.4

7.3

7.2

Chile Colombia

46.4

43.0

40.0

39.5

42.8

43.0

44.0

43.2

Czech Republic

30.4

29.4

28.9

30.0

35.3

38.6

41.0

42.5

Denmark

37.8

32.1

27.5

34.5

41.8

44.5

46.9

48.2

Dominican Republic

20.1

20.6

18.3

24.5

28.3

28.6

31.4

34.8

Euroland

70.1

68.5

66.3

70.0

79.5

85.4

87.6

86.9

France

66.4

63.6

63.8

67.6

78.1

84.1

88.5

93.0

Germany

68.1

67.5

64.8

66.3

73.5

78.3

78.4

76.9

Hungary

61.8

65.7

66.1

72.3

78.4

79.6

73.5

73.1

Indonesia

46.3

46.0

42.5

38.2

34.0

29.8

28.0

27.0

Italy

105.8

106.5

103.6

106.3

116.0

118.8

119.2

118.4

Japan

191.1

190.0

187.6

199.0

214.0

220.0

226.3

229.4

Malaysia

57.6

51.2

48.2

49.9

63.9

49.0

49.0

49.0

Mexico

24.0

24.7

15.3

17.3

29.4

25.6

24.9

23.2

Netherlands

51.8

47.4

45.3

58.2

60.8

65.4

66.8

67.9

New Zealand

23.3

21.4

18.2

17.4

23.4

28.3

35.5

36.2

Peru

37.7

33.0

29.7

24.2

27.3

23.5

22.4

21.4

Philippines

82.2

73.3

63.1

70.0

65.3

58.5

70.0

70.0

Poland

47.1

47.8

45.0

47.1

50.9

55.1

55.2

55.0

Russia

15.8

8.3

6.4

5.3

7.0

7.7

8.4

9.7

Spain

43.0

39.6

36.1

39.8

53.3

60.1

65.9

70.2

South Africa

31.5

28.4

26.0

26.2

31.3

32.1

37.1

41.0

South Korea

30.6

32.2

29.7

29.0

32.5

33.3

32.6

34.8

Sweden

50.4

45.0

40.0

38.3

41.9

39.6

36.7

33.3

Switzerland

28.1

25.2

23.2

22.4

20.7

20.6

20.5

19.9

Taiwan

48.7

46.2

43.7

46.3

51.5

50.6

50.4

48.5

Thailand

46.4

40.4

37.5

38.2

43.9

42.4

42.2

42.1

Turkey

68.5

60.4

61.3

57.3

Ukraine

17.3

15.6

12.6

17.6

32.6

38.9

40.8

39.3 61.9

UK

41.5

42.0

41.6

44.7

52.2

57.7

60.4

Venezuela

32.5

24.0

19.5

14.2

18.4

25.3

24.6

23.5

Advanced Economies

73.4

72.1

70.8

76.2

87.2

93.4

93.3

95.0

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

10

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Demand and Output Real GDP Real GDP, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.9

9.2

7.7

3.2

6.8

11.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

7.1

8.5

5.4

2.3

2.1

3.3

4.9

1.3

2.7

2.0

4.0

2.3

3.2

2.5

2.7

1.0

1.1

2.8

3.2

5.3

4.4

3.4

2.9

Brazil

-0.6

7.5

4.5

4.0

9.3

9.2

6.7

5.0

4.2

4.8

4.1

4.9

3.6

4.1

4.3

4.0

Canada

-2.8

3.2

2.9

3.2

2.1

3.6

3.8

3.3

2.9

2.7

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.3

Chile

-1.7

5.2

6.6

5.4

1.7

6.4

6.9

5.8

9.8

6.0

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.2

China

9.2

10.3

9.4

9.2

11.9

10.3

9.6

9.8

9.7

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.9

9.2

9.3

9.3

Colombia

1.5

4.3

5.5

4.9

4.1

4.7

3.6

4.8

5.1

4.9

6.4

5.7

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

Czech Republic

-4.0

2.2

2.5

2.7

1.2

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.6

Denmark

-5.2

1.7

1.7

2.1

-1.1

2.3

3.3

2.6

1.9

1.5

1.1

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.7

Dominican Republic

3.5

7.8

5.4

5.5

7.5

7.5

7.7

8.3

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.5

Ecuador

0.4

3.6

3.9

3.5

0.4

2.5

4.5

7.0

5.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

Euroland

-4.1

1.7

2.1

1.7

0.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

France

-2.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

1.0

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

2.0 1.9

Germany

-4.7

3.5

3.3

1.8

2.3

3.9

3.9

3.8

4.8

3.1

2.7

2.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

Greece

-2.3

-4.4

-3.8

0.2

-2.9

-3.1

Hong Kong

-2.7

7.0

5.2

5.2

8.0

6.7

6.9

6.4

7.2

4.3

4.5

5.0

4.7

5.8

5.5

5.0

Hungary

2.9

-6.7

1.2

2.5

2.6

-0.8

0.5

2.3

2.6

2.2

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

India

8.0

8.5

7.5

7.8

9.3

8.9

8.3

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.9

7.9

7.6

7.7

Indonesia

4.6

6.1

6.2

6.2

5.6

6.1

5.8

6.9

6.5

6.2 –

6.3 –

6.0 –

6.3 –

6.2 –

6.3 –

6.2 –

Israel

0.8

4.7

4.5

3.5

Italy

-5.2

1.2

1.3

1.4

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.2

Japan

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

5.6

3.1

5.0

2.2

-1.0

-1.6 –

-1.5 –

0.3 –

2.1 –

3.8 –

3.3 –

2.6 –

1.2

7.0

6.5

6.5

Malaysia

Kazakhstan

-1.6

7.2

5.4

5.6

10.1

9.0

5.3

4.8

4.6

5.3

5.7

5.9

6.1

5.4

5.4

5.6

Mexico

-6.1

5.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

7.6

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.3

3.8

4.7

5.0

5.0

4.4

3.8

Netherlands

-3.5

1.6

2.3

2.1

0.5

2.4

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

New Zealand

-2.0

1.7

2.5

3.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.1

1.4

1.7

3.0

4.0

3.9

4.4

4.0

3.3

Nigeria

7.0

7.8

7.0

7.5

Norway

-1.6

0.3

1.6

2.7

0.0

1.1

-1.2

1.2

0.1

1.0

3.4

2.0

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.2

Panama

3.0

7.5

7.8

7.0

6.2

6.5

8.5

8.6

9.7

8.0

7.0

6.5

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

Peru

0.9

8.8

6.4

6.2

6.2

10.0

9.6

9.2

8.8

3.6

6.1

7.2

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.0

Philippines

1.1

7.6

5.2

5.5

8.4

8.9

7.3

6.1

4.9

4.5

5.2

6.1

5.6

5.9

5.4

5.0

Poland

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

3.1

3.6

4.6

3.9

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.4 5.1

Russia

-7.9

4.0

5.3

5.6

3.5

5.0

3.1

4.5

4.1

4.4

6.3

6.4

5.9

5.9

5.5

Singapore

-0.8

14.5

5.5

5.4

16.4

19.4

10.5

12.0

8.3

2.8

5.3

5.9

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.6

South Africa

-1.7

2.9

3.5

4.1

1.4

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

4.1

4.4

4.2

South Korea Spain

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

8.5

7.5

4.4

4.7

4.2

3.7

4.2

5.0

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.6

-3.7

-0.1

1.1

1.9

-1.4

0.0

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.1 3.6

Sweden

-5.3

5.4

4.6

3.1

2.9

4.5

6.6

7.6

6.5

5.3

3.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.3

Switzerland

-1.9

2.8

2.1

2.1

1.8

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.5

2.4

1.9

1.7

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

Taiwan

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

13.6

12.9

10.7

7.1

6.5

4.1

3.9

4.6

4.2

5.5

5.1

4.7

Thailand

-2.3

7.8

3.8

4.2

12.0

9.2

6.6

3.8

3.0

3.7

4.4

4.2

3.4

4.2

4.4

4.8

Turkey

-4.8

8.9

7.5

3.5

12.0

10.3

5.2

9.2

11.0

7.8

9.2

2.8

0.8

2.7

4.0

6.0

UK

-4.9

1.4

1.9

2.6

-0.3

1.6

2.5

1.5

1.7

1.3

1.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.4

2.3

-14.8

4.2

4.3

5.0

4.8

5.5

3.6

3.3

5.3

2.0

6.4

4.8

5.1

2.7

6.7

5.1

Ukraine USA

-2.6

2.9

2.3

3.0

2.4

3.0

3.2

2.8

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.2

3.2

Venezuela

-3.2

-1.5

4.0

4.3

-4.8

-1.7

-0.2

0.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.2

6.0

5.0

2.0

5.5

5.5

8.8

7.2

5.7

5.2

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.9

2.9

Vietnam Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

5.3

6.8

5.6

6.5

5.9

6.3

7.4

7.2

5.4

3.5 5.7

-3.3

3.0

2.1

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

3.4

7.9

7.0

6.9

8.4

8.3

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.7

6.9

6.6

6.5

6.7

6.8

6.7

-0.6

5.1

4.3

4.7

5.2

5.4

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.6

4.6

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

11

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Real GDP – Since 2005 and 10-Year Trend Real GDP, % change, yoy

10 Yr Trend

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

3.1

9.2

8.5

8.7

6.8

0.9

9.2

7.7

3.2

Australia

3.3

3.2

2.5

4.6

2.6

1.3

2.7

2.0

4.0

Brazil

3.4

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

-0.6

7.5

4.5

4.0

Canada

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.2

0.7

-2.8

3.2

2.9

3.2

Chile

3.8

5.6

4.6

4.6

3.7

-1.7

5.2

6.6

5.4

China

9.8

10.4

11.7

13.0

9.6

9.2

10.3

9.4

9.2

Colombia

3.6

4.7

6.7

6.9

3.5

1.5

4.3

5.5

4.9

Czech Republic

4.0

6.4

7.0

6.1

2.3

-4.0

2.2

2.5

2.7

Denmark

1.6

2.4

3.4

1.6

-1.1

-5.2

1.7

1.5

2.2

Dominican Republic

na

9.3

10.7

8.5

5.3

3.5

7.8

5.4

5.5

Ecuador

3.5

5.7

4.8

2.0

7.2

0.4

3.6

3.9

3.5

Euroland

2.1

1.8

3.2

2.8

0.3

-4.1

1.7

2.1

1.7

France

2.1

1.9

2.7

2.2

-0.2

-2.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

Germany

1.5

0.9

3.6

2.8

0.7

-4.7

3.5

3.3

1.8

Greece

3.1

2.3

4.5

4.3

1.3

-2.3

-4.0

-2.6

1.4

Hong Kong

5.2

7.1

7.0

6.4

2.3

-2.7

7.0

5.2

5.2

Hungary

3.5

3.2

3.6

0.8

0.8

-6.7

1.2

2.5

2.6

India

7.1

9.5

9.7

9.0

6.7

8.0

8.5

7.5

7.8

Indonesia

4.7

5.7

5.5

6.3

6.0

4.6

6.1

6.2

6.2

Israel

3.9

4.9

5.7

5.3

4.2

0.8

4.7

4.5

3.5

Italy

1.2

0.8

2.1

1.4

-1.3

-5.2

1.2

1.3

1.4

Japan

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.4

-1.2

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

Kazakhstan

8.6

9.7

10.7

8.9

3.3

1.2

7.0

6.5

6.5

Malaysia

5.4

5.0

5.8

6.2

4.7

-1.6

7.2

5.4

5.6

Mexico

3.0

3.2

5.2

3.3

1.2

-6.1

5.4

4.4

4.5

Netherlands

2.4

2.2

3.5

3.9

1.8

-3.5

1.6

2.3

2.1

New Zealand

3.3

3.2

1.0

2.8

-0.2

-2.0

1.7

2.5

3.9

Nigeria

5.7

5.4

6.2

7.0

6.0

7.0

7.8

7.0

7.5

Norway

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.7

0.6

-1.6

0.3

1.6

2.7

Panama

5.8

7.2

8.5

12.1

10.1

3.0

7.5

7.8

7.0

Peru

5.0

6.4

7.9

8.9

9.8

0.9

8.8

6.4

6.2

Philippines

4.9

5.0

5.3

7.1

3.8

1.1

7.6

5.2

5.5

Poland

4.2

3.6

6.2

6.8

5.0

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

Russia

6.9

6.4

8.2

8.5

5.2

-7.9

4.0

5.3

5.6

Singapore

5.5

6.6

8.2

7.8

1.8

-0.8

14.5

5.5

5.4

South Africa

3.9

5.3

5.6

5.6

3.6

-1.7

2.9

3.5

4.1

South Korea

5.5

4.2

5.1

5.1

2.3

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

Spain

3.5

3.6

4.0

3.6

0.9

-3.7

-0.1

1.1

1.9

Sweden

2.9

3.2

4.6

3.4

-0.8

-5.3

5.4

4.6

3.1

Switzerland

2.0

2.6

3.6

3.6

1.9

-1.9

2.8

2.1

2.1

Taiwan

3.8

4.1

4.9

5.7

0.7

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

Thailand

4.8

4.5

5.1

4.9

2.5

-2.3

7.8

3.8

4.2

Turkey

3.9

8.4

6.9

4.7

0.7

-4.8

8.9

7.5

3.5

UK

2.6

2.2

2.8

2.7

-0.1

-4.9

1.4

1.9

2.6

Ukraine

6.3

2.7

7.3

7.9

2.3

-14.8

4.2

4.3

5.0

USA Venezuela World

2.6 3.7 3.9

3.1 10.3 4.3

2.7 9.9 5.0

1.9 8.8 5.0

0.0 5.3 2.6

-2.6 -3.2 -0.6

2.9 -1.5 5.1

2.3 4.0 4.3

3.0 4.3 4.7

Trend defined as the geometric average of annual Real GDP growth rates for the past 10 years (1998-2007). Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Volume 9, Issue 3

12

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Real GDP per Capita %yoy 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

8.0

7.3

7.5

5.6

Australia

1.8

1.0

2.8

0.6

-0.2

8.0

6.5

3.0

-0.9

0.9

1.1

Brazil

1.8

2.6

4.7

3.1

3.8

-1.9

6.1

3.2

Canada

2.0

1.4

3.7

1.6

-0.5

-3.9

2.0

1.8

Chile

4.4

2.2

2.8

3.5

2.6

-2.6

4.2

5.5

China

4.3

9.7

11.1

12.4

9.0

8.7

9.9

8.9

8.7

Colombia

3.4

5.4

5.6

2.3

0.3

3.1

3.8

3.2

Czech Republic

6.5

6.2

5.6

1.3

-4.1

2.2

2.5

2.7

Denmark

2.2

3.1

1.2

-1.6

-5.8

1.3

1.4

1.8

Ecuador

4.2

3.2

0.6

5.7

-1.1

2.1

2.5

2.1

Egypt

2.4

4.4

1.7

5.0

-0.8

3.9

-1.0

1.0

Euroland

1.1

2.7

2.2

-0.3

-4.6

1.4

1.6

1.2

France

1.1

1.9

1.6

-0.8

-3.2

0.9

1.5

1.1

Germany

1.0

3.7

2.9

1.0

-4.4

3.6

3.5

2.0

Greece

1.9

4.8

3.8

0.6

-2.7

-4.8

-4.1

-0.2

Hong Kong

8.4

5.9

5.8

1.7

-3.3

5.9

4.5

4.5

Hungary

3.4

3.8

1.0

1.1

-6.5

1.4

2.5

2.6

India

8.4

8.1

7.5

5.4

6.5

4.6

5.9

6.2

Indonesia

4.0

4.2

4.9

4.7

3.3

4.8

4.9

4.9

Israel

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.4

-1.6

3.3

1.8

0.9

Italy

-0.2

1.6

0.7

-2.1

-5.9

0.8

0.6

0.8

Japan

1.9

2.0

2.4

-1.1

-6.1

4.1

-0.6

3.2

Kazakhstan

8.7

9.4

7.7

1.9

-0.2

5.5

4.9

5.0

Malaysia

2.9

3.8

3.9

3.6

-2.6

6.1

4.4

4.6

Mexico

2.3

4.2

2.3

0.3

-6.9

4.6

3.5

3.7

Netherlands

1.9

3.3

3.8

1.5

-4.0

1.1

2.0

1.8

New Zealand

2.0

-0.2

1.8

-1.0

-3.3

0.7

1.6

3.2

Nigeria

2.6

3.4

4.1

3.1

4.1

4.9

4.1

4.6

Norway

1.1

0.8

1.6

-0.8

-2.7

-0.1

0.6

1.9

Panama

5.3

6.7

10.3

8.3

1.4

5.8

6.2

5.4

Peru

5.1

6.5

7.5

8.4

-0.4

7.4

5.0

4.8

Philippines

3.0

3.4

5.2

1.8

-0.9

5.5

3.2

3.3

Poland

3.6

6.2

6.9

5.0

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

Russia

7.4

8.7

8.7

5.3

-7.9

4.0

5.1

5.4

Singapore

1.8

8.2

3.1

-2.4

-4.6

10.1

1.4

1.3

South Africa

4.1

4.4

4.4

2.4

-2.8

1.8

2.4

2.9

South Korea

4.2

4.7

4.7

2.1

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

Spain

1.9

2.3

1.9

-0.9

-4.9

-0.5

-0.2

0.6

Sweden

2.7

3.8

2.6

-1.6

-6.1

4.5

4.4

2.6

Switzerland

1.9

3.0

3.0

0.8

-4.4

2.3

1.5

1.5

Taiwan

3.7

4.4

5.2

0.7

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

Thailand

3.4

5.3

9.4

1.9

-2.5

7.1

3.3

3.9

Turkey

7.1

5.6

3.5

-0.5

-6.1

7.5

6.1

2.1

UK

1.5

2.2

2.0

-0.7

-5.5

0.7

1.2

1.9

Ukraine

3.5

8.0

8.5

2.8

-14.5

4.7

4.8

5.5

USA

2.1

1.7

1.0

-1.0

-3.5

2.0

1.5

1.6

Venezuela

8.2

8.2

7.2

3.8

-4.6

-2.9

2.5

2.8

Vietnam

7.0

6.8

7.2

5.0

5.5

5.3

4.3

5.1

Real GDP per Capita, % change, yoy

Volume 9, Issue 3

13

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy) Nominal GDP per Capita in USD

2009

2010

2011

2012

Nominal GDP per Capita, %change, yoy

2009

2010

2011

2012 16.9

Argentina

7595

9012

10567

10895

Argentina

9.7

24.6

23.7

Australia

45000

55107

66181

68531

Australia

-1.4

5.5

5.7

4.9

8389

10697

12990

13193

Brazil

3.7

13.9

11.6

10.2 4.7

Brazil Canada

38478

46046

49313

52596

Canada

-5.7

5.0

5.3

Chile

9531

11908

14260

15387

Chile

1.6

13.3

8.1

7.4

China

3739

4398

5275

6265

China

9.8

17.7

20.0

18.7

Colombia

Colombia

5283

6351

7099

7351

18433

18592

21748

23460

Denmark

7551

7654

7951

Ecuador

3716

4059

Egypt

2262

Euroland

4.5

6.6

7.8

6.3

Czech Republic

-1.7

1.0

4.3

4.5

8274

Denmark

-5.5

4.8

3.9

4.1

4306

4549

Ecuador

-5.4

9.2

6.1

5.7

2704

3255

3192

Euroland

-3.6

2.3

3.1

2.3

37958

37571

41810

44098

France

-2.7

1.7

3.0

2.0

France

42149

41465

46086

48466

Germany

-3.1

4.2

4.6

4.2

Germany

40809

41161

46478

49926

Greece

-1.5

-2.5

-2.6

0.8

Greece

20807

20295

19759

19908

Hong Kong

-3.4

6.4

8.9

9.6

Hong Kong

29772

31690

34517

37833

Hungary

-2.4

4.3

7.1

4.8

Hungary

13080

13373

15216

16355

India

13.1

20.6

16.1

9.0

Czech Republic

India

1194

1440

1673

1825

Indonesia

5.4

29.1

Indonesia

2339

3020

17.9

14.7

3559

4085

Israel

3.3

4.4

Israel

26051

28642

3.8

3.5

32155

35568

Italy

35267

34590

Italy

-3.8

1.4

38336

40723

2.7

3.1

Japan

39316

42134

43173

44487

Japan

-6.5

1.9

-1.0

3.4

Malaysia

6928

8392

9909

11393

-14.3

21.7

18.1

15.4

Mexico

8179

9546

11083

12026

Netherlands

48313

47869

53647

57420

New Zealand

31147

34456

37251

38590

Norway

74369

85392

105399

116720

Panama

7197

7753

8407

9123

Peru

4335

5186

5655

6028

Philippines Poland Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK USA Venezuela Vietnam Aggregates Advanced Economies Emerging Markets Asia BRICS Central and Eastern Europe G10 G20 EU27 Europe Latin America Volume 9, Issue 3

1748

2123

2480

2666

11350

12472

15316

17329

8707

10510

13337

15649

36660

42827

49519

54321

5820

7296

8375

9556

17088 32054 43053 63478 16409 4150 8527 34428 46417 11605 1080

20738 31160 48727 67808 18623 4989 10076 36451 47807 8339 1186

24051 34129 61195 79074 21524 5682 10759 42732 49376 10329 1332

27244 35844 66232 83061 23621 6334 12665 46219 50980 12533 1477

38274 3517 4425 3238 12909 43026 11423 36215 36760 7694

39510 4164 5012 3873 13794 45399 12227 36207 36861 9090

43009 4904 5646 4582 16491 48680 13491 40396 41206 10538

44998 5534 6246 5269 18271 50445 14412 42812 43691 10974

Malaysia Mexico

-3.2

9.1

7.7

7.4

Netherlands

-4.4

2.4

3.9

3.8

New Zealand

-3.3

0.7

1.6

3.2

Norway

-2.7

-0.1

0.6

1.9

Panama

1.4

5.8

6.2

5.4

Peru

1.7

12.2

7.9

7.1

-5.1

21.4

16.8

7.5

Philippines Poland

-18.7

9.0

8.8

7.6

Russia

-26.0

20.7

30.2

25.9 9.4

Singapore

14

-6.9

16.8

15.5

South Africa

4.2

10.0

8.3

8.0

South Korea

-10.6

21.6

16.4

13.5

Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK USA Venezuela Vietnam

-4.3 -4.5 -4.1 -5.7 -4.6 1.8 -4.1 -2.6 3.3 3.4

0.5 6.0 1.6 14.0 20.2 11.1 3.6 3.0 -28.1 9.9

1.5 6.2 2.0 15.6 13.9 8.2 5.4 3.3 23.9 12.3

1.9 4.4 3.4 10.2 11.5 21.7 4.9 3.2 21.3 11.0

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP – Level Nominal GDP, US$bn Argentina Australia Brazil

2005 182

2006 213

2007 261

2008 325

2009 307

2010 368

2011 437

2012 451

736

785

955

1056

990

1234

1496

1563

886

1087

1382

1613

1625

2099

2582

2631

1138

1270

1401

1563

1295

1568

1696

1828

Chile

118

147

164

171

161

203

246

268

China

2244

2658

3393

4521

4990

5892

7108

8483

Canada

Colombia

147

163

208

247

238

289

328

346

Czech Republic

125

140

172

221

192

194

227

245

Denmark

35

36

42

47

42

42

44

46

Dominican Republic

34

36

41

46

47

52

55

59

Ecuador

37

42

46

54

52

58

62

66

Egypt

93

108

132

165

189

228

281

281

Euroland

10219

10585

12280

13825

12475

12382

13847

14675

France

2151

2222

2565

2888

2633

2604

2911

3080

Germany

2807

2874

3312

3706

3338

3363

3790

4064

Hong Kong

178

190

207

215

209

225

247

272

Hungary

111

110

138

162

131

133

152

163

India

808

917

1177

1200

1383

1731

2041

2261

Indonesia

285

365

431

508

541

708

845

982

Israel

134

146

168

202

195

218

251

285

Italy

1793

1836

2102

2345

2118

2087

2328

2489

Japan

4602

4332

4342

4746

5013

5363

5484

5637

57

80

105

133

116

146

174

202

Malaysia

131

156

186

222

193

238

283

330

Mexico

849

952

1036

1094

880

1035

1211

1325

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

644

668

778

890

797

793

892

958

New Zealand

111

115

142

106

135

151

165

172

Peru

79

92

107

127

127

154

170

184

Philippines

99

118

147

164

161

200

238

261

Poland

306

333

421

551

433

475

583

660

Russia

766

978

1294

1696

1236

1492

1898

2231

Singapore

117

137

167

193

183

223

267

304

South Africa

247

262

286

278

288

365

423

488

South Korea

792

890

1049

933

834

1014

1181

1340

Spain

1140

1216

1432

1628

1469

1433

1591

1693

Sweden

375

389

462

504

402

459

577

628

Switzerland

375

386

433

508

495

531

623

658

Taiwan

346

366

385

403

377

430

497

548

Thailand

177

207

246

275

264

319

365

408

Turkey

483

529

646

731

614

736

796

950

Ukraine

86

108

142

183

117

140

159

180

2291

2382

2806

2786

2127

2267

2678

2916

12638

13399

14062

14369

14119

14660

15260

15969

144

183

227

311

326

238

298

367

53

61

71

90

93

103

118

132

35021

36400

40104

42951

39812

41769

45542

48201

8211

9721

11996

14541

14311

17230

20660

23531

43232

46121

52100

57493

54123

58998

66201

71732

UK USA Venezuela Vietnam Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

Volume 9, Issue 3

15

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

10.9

25.9

25.1

17.1

22.6

26.2

25.4

28.9

28.8

25.3

25.9

21.2

16.1

15.9

17.2

19.0

Australia

0.8

7.4

6.6

5.8

2.9

8.6

9.3

8.9

7.4

5.8

6.5

6.7

7.4

6.0

5.1

5.0

Brazil

5.1

15.4

13.0

10.6

15.8

16.9

15.7

13.5

12.5

13.4

12.9

13.3

11.1

10.9

10.6

9.9

Canada

-4.6

6.3

6.4

5.8

5.5

6.8

6.5

6.2

6.0

6.5

6.9

6.0

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.0

China

10.4

18.1

20.6

19.3

17.2

16.9

17.0

20.9

22.3

23.9

19.6

18.3

18.8

19.6

19.6

19.4

Chile

2.6

14.4

9.2

8.5

13.2

16.0

15.6

12.9

11.2

9.2

8.4

8.2

8.7

8.7

8.4

8.4

Colombia

5.7

7.8

9.6

8.1

7.5

8.0

6.1

9.6

10.1

8.6

10.1

9.6

8.2

8.0

8.0

8.0

Czech Republic

-1.6

1.0

4.3

4.5

-0.6

1.2

2.0

1.3

4.6

4.5

4.2

4.1

3.8

4.2

4.7

5.4

Denmark

-4.9

5.2

4.2

4.3

2.4

6.7

6.4

5.4

3.7

Ecuador

-4.0

10.8

7.5

7.1

3.6 –

3.8 –

5.6 –

5.0 –

4.5 –

4.1 –

3.7 –

Euroland

-3.2

2.6

3.6

2.8

1.4

2.9

3.1

3.0

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.1

2.7

2.7

2.8

France

-2.1

2.2

3.6

2.6

1.2

2.2

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.2

2.4

2.4

2.5

Germany

-3.3

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.3

4.7

4.3

4.1

5.2

4.0

4.0

4.6

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

Greece

-1.1

-2.0

-2.3

1.2

-0.5

0.0

Hong Kong

-2.8

7.5

9.7

10.4

8.8

4.3

8.4

7.3

8.5

9.6

11.8

9.8

9.9

11.2

10.5

9.9

Hungary

-2.6

4.1

7.1

4.8

India

14.6

25.2

17.9

10.7

29.5

25.9

25.8

20.0

21.8

21.6

15.0

13.9

10.1

9.7

11.4

11.8

Indonesia

6.7

30.7

19.4

16.2

42.9

31.2

26.2

21.9

20.7

19.3

18.3

19.3

18.6

15.4

16.0

14.9

Italy

-3.1

1.9

3.4

3.7

0.5

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.7

3.3

3.6

3.8

4.1

3.7

3.6

3.5

Japan

-6.6

1.8

-1.2

3.2

2.7

1.1

2.8

0.5

-2.9

-1.9

-1.1

0.7

3.3

4.1

3.1

2.3

Kazakhstan

-13.1

25.9

19.8

16.7

Malaysia

-13.0

22.9

19.3

16.6

25.8

24.2

22.3

19.9

22.8

17.7

17.8

19.0

17.6

16.7

16.2

15.7

Mexico

-2.4

10.0

8.6

8.2

12.0

14.0

11.1

10.0

9.6

8.8

7.9

8.3

8.6

8.7

8.1

7.5

Netherlands

-3.9

3.0

4.2

4.2

0.5

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.0

13.7

9.3

8.5

12.8

14.9

14.0

13.0

13.2

6.2

8.5

9.5

8.4

8.6

8.7

8.3

-3.2

23.8

19.0

9.7

21.4

19.0

20.9

16.4

13.8

22.6

19.4

21.8

13.8

8.5

6.7

6.3

Peru Philippines Poland

-18.7

9.0

8.7

7.5

24.1

9.0

-0.6

3.4

7.7

25.6

23.8

19.1

19.6

16.0

16.3

13.3

Russia

-26.0

20.8

30.4

26.2

30.9

22.7

15.4

17.5

21.8

27.4

30.8

39.0

31.2

27.0

25.2

23.2

-3.2

21.5

20.1

13.8

26.7

24.9

18.6

16.5

22.0

20.5

20.6

17.0

15.7

13.6

13.0

12.6

South Africa

5.4

11.2

9.5

9.2

8.1

11.7

12.1

12.9

11.8

10.0

9.0

7.4

11.8

10.0

9.0

7.4

South Korea

-10.6

21.6

16.4

13.5

38.5

22.9

13.2

12.8

9.9

15.1

21.7

19.5

16.5

15.0

11.9

10.4

Singapore

Spain

-3.1

0.8

2.9

3.3

-0.8

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.6

Sweden

-3.6

6.9

6.3

4.9

3.8

6.1

8.0

9.3

8.8

7.0

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

5.1

5.4

Switzerland

-1.6

2.1

2.7

3.9

1.8

3.4

3.4

2.9

2.5

1.6

1.2

2.4

2.9

3.5

4.6

4.6

Taiwan

-5.7

14.0

15.6

10.2

16.8

15.3

13.3

10.5

12.1

16.2

18.1

16.4

12.1

11.8

9.6

7.3 23.1

Turkey

3.2

12.6

9.7

23.3

27.1

13.9

17.1

13.5

15.8

12.7

4.8

7.7

10.0

21.6

24.4

-36.3

19.7

13.7

13.5

UK

-3.5

4.3

6.2

5.6

2.5

5.3

4.8

4.7

4.6

6.2

6.7

7.1

7.2

5.5

5.1

4.9

USA

-1.7

3.8

4.1

4.6

2.8

3.9

4.5

4.2

4.0

4.2

3.9

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.9

4.8

4.8

-27.1

25.6

23.0

-30.2

-27.9

-26.8

-26.3

27.5

26.1

26.7

26.7

22.8

25.1

23.9

20.4

Ukraine

Venezuela Advanced Economies

-3.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.2

4.0

4.8

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.5

Emerging Markets World

4.2 -0.4

17.8 10.2

17.7 10.3

15.5 9.6

19.4 10.9

17.5 10.1

16.5 9.7

16.8 9.5

18.3 10.2

19.0 11.0

16.4 10.0

16.3 10.1

15.2 9.7

15.2 9.6

15.3 9.5

14.9 9.2

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

Volume 9, Issue 3

16

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Consumer Expenditure Consumer Expenditure, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

0.5

9.0

9.9

3.2

7.3

8.1

8.9

11.5

11.3

13.0

10.6

5.1

2.2

2.6

3.4

4.3

Australia

1.0

2.8

3.2

3.5

2.2

2.6

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

Brazil

4.2

7.0

5.4

4.3

8.4

6.4

5.9

7.5

5.9

6.0

5.5

4.2

4.3

4.0

4.3

4.5

Canada

0.4

3.3

2.5

2.9

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.2

2.2

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

-2.3

15.7

6.9

4.9

13.6

17.1

19.1

13.0

13.2

5.2

5.3

4.6

5.8

4.3

5.2

4.3

Chile China

9.0

5.9

6.8

7.5

Colombia

0.9

6.7

6.6

5.4

4.0

4.5

9.4

9.0

8.0

7.4

5.3

5.8

5.3

6.1

4.8

5.4

Czech Republic

-0.1

0.1

0.3

2.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.7

1.1

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.8

Denmark

-4.5

2.3

0.5

2.2

2.8

1.9

1.8

2.6

-0.7

0.7

1.1

0.6

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

Ecuador

-0.7

7.7

8.7

4.1

3.4

8.2

9.1

10.1

10.2

6.4

10.3

8.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

Euroland

-1.2

0.8

1.1

1.6

0.4

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

0.2

1.4

1.6

2.1

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.6

Germany

-0.1

0.4

1.8

1.7

-0.7

-0.5

0.9

1.8

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

Greece

-1.8

-4.3

-5.2

1.1

1.4

-4.8

-5.8

-8.2

-10.8

-5.2

-3.3

-1.0

0.3

1.1

1.4

1.6

0.6

5.8

4.9

4.4

7.4

4.1

5.3

8.1

7.6

6.0

4.5

2.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

3.5

-6.9

-2.1

-0.4

1.0

-4.0

-3.8

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-0.2

-0.7

0.3

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

France

Hong Kong Hungary India

7.5

8.6

8.0

8.2

8.9

8.9

8.6

8.0

8.6

8.3

7.7

7.6

8.4

8.5

8.2

7.7

Indonesia

4.9

4.6

5.3

6.0

3.9

5.0

5.2

4.4

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

Israel

1.7

5.0

5.5

4.0

Italy

-1.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

Japan

-1.9

1.8

-1.1

0.9

3.0

1.3

2.5

0.6

-1.0

-1.4

-2.0

-0.7

0.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.7

6.5

6.7

5.5

5.2

7.9

6.7

6.4

6.7

7.0

7.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

5.0

5.0

Mexico

-7.2

5.0

3.8

4.9

4.0

6.8

4.6

4.6

4.9

4.6

4.4

3.8

4.0

4.3

4.6

4.9

Netherlands

-2.6

0.4

0.5

1.9

-0.4

0.2

0.5

1.2

-0.4

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

New Zealand

-0.9

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.6

2.8

2.3

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.1

Norway

0.2

3.6

2.7

3.8

4.9

3.1

3.2

3.1

2.1

3.2

2.8

2.5

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.1

Peru

2.4

6.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.5

6.4

5.6

5.3

5.0

5.8

5.6

5.3

5.0

Malaysia

Philippines

4.1

3.4

5.4

5.9

4.0

1.9

2.4

4.9

4.9

5.0

6.0

5.8

6.0

6.0

5.8

5.8

Poland

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.2

2.1

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.3

Russia

-4.7

3.0

6.8

6.8

-0.5

4.7

5.1

2.7

5.7

6.5

7.1

7.9

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.5

0.2

4.2

5.2

5.7

6.1

5.2

1.5

4.3

5.0

5.5

5.0

5.4

5.4

5.4

6.0

6.0 4.1

Singapore South Africa

-2.0

4.4

4.8

4.0

2.3

4.7

5.5

5.1

5.0

5.2

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.9

4.0

South Korea

0.0

4.1

3.2

3.8

6.6

3.5

3.6

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.8

4.1

3.7

3.4

3.9

Spain

-4.3

1.2

0.1

0.6

-0.3

2.1

1.5

1.6

0.7

-0.8

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.9

Sweden

2.4

-0.4

4.9

2.2

2.3

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.5

1.9

2.8

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

Switzerland

1.4

1.7

1.2

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

Taiwan

1.1

3.7

4.1

4.7

3.0

4.3

4.6

2.7

5.0

4.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

4.4

4.5

Thailand

-1.1

4.8

2.7

3.5

3.9

6.4

5.0

3.9

3.4

1.5

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

Turkey

-2.3

6.6

10.6

3.0

7.5

3.3

6.5

9.0

12.1

11.8

10.5

8.3

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.1

Ukraine

-14.2

7.0

4.6

6.4

-3.2

0.7

-0.2

0.8

0.3

1.3

1.2

0.1

-0.6

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.1

UK USA

-1.2

1.7

2.3

2.6

0.8

1.7

1.8

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.9

2.9

Venezuela

-2.9

-1.9

4.6

6.7

Vietnam Advanced Economies World

3.7 -1.1 0.9

9.4 1.7 3.5

3.8 1.6 3.6

4.6 2.2 4.0

– 1.5 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.9 –

– 1.9 –

– 1.7 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.5 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.9 –

– 2.2 –

– 2.3 –

– 2.4 –

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

17

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Fixed Investment Fixed Investment, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-10.2

21.2

11.1

1.8

13.1

18.9

26.6

24.7

19.5

12.5

8.3

6.7

0.9

0.6

1.9

3.4 6.5

-3.2

5.4

6.3

8.8

6.5

7.7

6.4

1.6

2.6

5.0

8.2

10.1

10.3

10.8

8.3

Brazil

-10.3

21.9

8.2

7.4

28.4

28.1

21.2

12.3

8.8

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

7.5

8.5

Canada

-20.8

7.3

13.7

9.5

-4.3

6.4

11.5

16.6

17.0

15.2

11.9

11.1

10.4

9.7

9.2

8.6

Chile

-15.9

18.8

14.1

13.3

7.2

29.2

18.6

19.9

19.3

16.0

12.0

10.0

15.0

16.0

12.0

10.0

China

23.3

11.8

10.4

10.5

Colombia

-0.8

8.3

7.6

5.9

9.3

6.6

3.9

13.8

8.7

6.0

9.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

6.5

6.0

Czech Republic

-7.9

-3.1

1.1

4.0

-7.7

-4.5

0.0

-0.1

3.8

1.8

-0.3

-0.9

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.6

-14.3

-3.2

-3.5

4.7

-16.1

1.8

-0.3

3.6

-1.6

-6.4

-3.7

-2.1

6.2

5.4

4.2

3.1

Ecuador

-4.3

10.2

8.5

5.0

2.7

9.5

12.8

16.2

10.0

10.0

7.0

7.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Euroland

-11.7

-1.0

3.3

2.6

-5.0

-0.6

0.5

1.3

4.2

2.3

3.0

3.6

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.8

-8.8

-1.4

2.9

2.7

-4.8

-1.9

0.2

1.3

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.4

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.3

-10.0

5.7

8.3

3.0

0.4

7.1

7.8

7.6

12.5

7.3

6.5

7.3

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

Hong Kong

-3.9

8.1

3.6

5.2

8.2

15.8

-0.3

8.6

-1.1

3.0

6.0

6.0

5.0

4.9

5.3

5.7

Hungary

-7.8

-5.6

-2.0

1.0

-6.4

-6.0

-4.6

-5.5

-3.7

-2.8

-1.7

0.4

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1 9.0

Denmark

France Germany

Indonesia

3.3

8.5

8.5

8.6

8.0

8.0

9.2

8.7

7.3

9.3

9.3

8.0

9.0

8.5

8.0

Israel

-5.8

12.6

14.5

6.8

Italy

-12.0

2.3

1.4

3.6

-1.0

3.1

4.6

2.8

1.5

0.8

1.0

2.6

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

Japan

-12.2

0.0

1.2

6.3

-3.8

-0.1

3.5

1.0

-0.8

-0.2

1.3

4.1

7.1

7.2

6.2

4.6

-5.6

9.8

7.9

10.0

5.8

12.9

10.1

10.0

6.5

8.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

11.0

10.0

10.0

Malaysia Mexico

-11.9

2.4

4.8

4.8

-2.7

1.9

3.8

6.4

7.7

7.2

6.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

Netherlands

-10.2

-4.4

8.0

2.1

-10.8

-3.7

-3.1

0.7

10.1

5.0

8.4

8.4

1.2

2.7

2.2

2.1

New Zealand

15.8

-11.9

3.3

6.0

14.5

-2.7

1.6

4.2

10.4

9.0

3.4

7.0

4.6

10.4

14.9

16.7

Norway

-6.9

-7.4

10.1

5.8

-17.1

-3.3

-3.7

-4.9

13.6

5.0

13.3

8.8

7.6

6.5

5.3

3.9

Peru

-9.2

23.2

9.3

10.4

12.7

29.5

27.5

23.2

12.3

5.0

10.2

9.6

11.2

10.5

10.3

9.7 6.5

Philippines

-0.4

19.5

8.9

5.3

19.0

27.1

16.0

16.1

12.0

8.0

10.0

6.0

4.7

4.3

5.5

Poland

-1.0

-0.9

7.4

7.7

-5.1

-0.8

0.4

1.7

6.8

6.7

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.6

Russia

-15.7

4.6

8.1

14.4

-4.4

6.3

5.0

11.5

-0.6

7.5

11.0

14.5

16.5

13.0

14.0

14.0

Singapore

-2.9

5.1

3.3

6.8

11.1

-1.7

5.8

5.7

-9.5

8.6

7.4

6.9

7.3

6.7

6.7

6.7

South Korea

-1.4

7.3

2.6

6.6

12.6

7.4

7.1

3.7

-1.3

1.9

2.9

5.9

13.8

7.1

5.4

2.4

Spain

-16.0

-7.6

-4.3

0.5

-10.5

-6.7

-6.7

-6.1

-5.8

-5.9

-3.4

-1.8

-0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

Sweden

-15.3

5.9

7.7

6.6

-0.6

3.9

9.7

11.1

8.9

8.7

6.8

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

-4.9

3.0

6.9

2.4

3.6

4.5

2.3

1.4

7.4

6.5

6.8

7.0

3.0

2.0

2.2

2.2

-11.0

23.4

5.2

6.2

28.6

32.0

24.6

12.3

9.6

5.0

3.0

4.0

7.7

7.0

5.8

4.8

-9.2

9.4

7.8

6.5

12.1

11.3

7.9

6.4

9.3

5.8

6.5

9.2

7.1

6.3

6.1

6.4

-19.1

29.9

22.1

3.8

16.8

28.4

30.0

42.1

33.6

26.4

25.3

8.4

4.5

3.3

3.3

4.1

Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK

-15.3

3.6

3.7

9.6

-1.1

2.6

6.2

6.8

0.0

3.3

3.6

8.0

11.7

11.4

8.7

7.0

Ukraine

-46.2

4.9

14.3

25.9

-2.2

-5.7

3.6

-0.2

-6.0

18.7

19.9

18.7

36.5

27.0

23.2

22.3

USA

-18.3

3.9

4.4

7.1

-2.0

5.1

5.3

7.4

6.9

2.9

3.7

4.2

5.4

6.7

7.9

8.2

-8.3

-6.3

5.2

3.0

4.3

10.4

4.1

4.6

-13.7

2.7

4.0

5.9

-1.5

3.4

4.3

4.9

4.6

3.0

3.7

4.8

5.8

6.0

6.1

5.8

Venezuela Vietnam Advanced Economies

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

18

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Domestic Demand Domestic Demand, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

-1.2

11.6

10.1

3.0

8.5

11.0

12.6

13.8

12.8

12.0

10.1

6.1

2.4

2.4

3.0

4.0

Australia

-0.1

3.6

4.1

4.8

3.3

4.1

4.3

2.8

3.3

3.6

4.5

5.0

5.0

5.2

4.6

4.3

Brazil

-0.8

10.3

5.6

4.6

11.8

12.6

10.1

6.8

6.8

4.9

5.3

5.3

4.7

4.1

4.5

5.0

Canada

-2.1

4.5

4.4

3.4

3.8

5.0

4.8

4.6

3.8

4.9

4.7

4.3

4.6

3.2

3.1

3.0

Chile

-5.9

16.4

8.6

7.0

12.0

19.9

19.0

14.6

14.6

China

14.1

9.8

8.7

9.0

7.9 –

6.8 –

6.0 –

8.1 –

7.5 –

6.9 –

5.8 –

Colombia

0.1

6.9

6.6

5.2

5.6

7.5

7.7

6.6

7.6

6.5

6.1

6.1

5.4

5.4

4.9

5.2

Czech Republic

-4.2

1.5

0.3

2.4

-1.6

0.9

4.3

2.4

0.4

1.3

-2.2

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.5

3.3

Denmark

-6.0

-0.4

1.7

2.4

-1.7

3.1

2.0

2.0

-0.1

-1.1

0.2

0.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.0

Ecuador

-2.8

9.1

4.5

4.5

4.5

8.8

12.9

10.4

5.8

4.5

4.0

3.6

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.5

Euroland

-3.5

0.9

1.7

1.6

-0.4

1.2

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

France

-2.7

1.2

2.6

2.0

0.2

1.3

2.3

1.1

2.9

2.7

2.2

2.5

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

Germany

-2.1

2.4

2.5

2.0

0.4

3.2

2.3

3.7

3.5

2.0

1.9

2.6

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

0.7

7.0

3.2

4.3

16.8

10.7

-1.6

4.3

0.5

4.9

4.7

2.8

4.6

4.6

4.2

3.8

-10.2

-1.2

1.2

2.0

-3.9

-0.9

0.4

-0.4

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.4

3.5

2.5

1.0

0.9

10.6

8.4

6.6

8.1

11.5

9.8

7.6

5.5

6.7

6.2

6.2

8.2

8.4

8.1

7.5

5.2

5.7

6.1

6.6

5.3

5.1

6.6

5.7

7.5 5.6

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.6

Italy

-4.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.4

2.2

2.2

1.5

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

Japan

-4.7

2.2

0.1

2.5

1.7

1.4

3.7

1.9

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1.2

2.5

3.1

2.5

1.8

Malaysia

-2.4

12.4

6.9

7.0

16.9

17.1

9.8

7.2

10.3

5.1

6.0

6.7

7.5

7.3

5.6

7.6 4.7

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia

Mexico

-8.0

5.1

3.7

4.7

3.9

7.5

4.5

4.5

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.2

4.4

Netherlands

-3.1

0.9

1.9

1.7

-1.1

3.0

0.7

1.0

2.4

-0.2

2.7

2.8

1.2

1.9

1.8

1.8

New Zealand

-3.4

2.6

2.8

4.8

1.1

2.6

2.8

3.9

3.5

2.1

3.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

5.4

5.3

Peru

-2.8

12.8

7.2

6.5

8.5

14.2

15.2

13.2

10.7

4.2

6.9

7.4

6.5

6.7

6.6

6.2

2.8

8.3

6.8

5.7

10.2

8.3

6.2

8.4

8.2

6.1

7.4

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.6

-0.6

4.3

4.5

4.5

2.4

4.6

5.1

5.2

5.2

4.7

4.5

3.7

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.8

Philippines Poland Russia

-6.2

3.2

6.3

7.4

-0.5

4.4

4.3

4.7

3.3

5.6

7.4

9.1

7.6

7.0

7.4

7.7

Singapore

-6.8

7.2

6.2

6.6

8.2

8.6

-1.3

14.1

0.5

5.1

11.1

8.4

6.4

5.9

6.5

7.5 4.1

South Africa

-2.0

4.5

5.1

4.0

0.4

4.8

6.7

6.5

5.3

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.0

3.9

4.0

South Korea

-2.8

6.0

4.2

4.8

9.4

7.8

4.8

2.7

1.6

3.5

4.5

7.0

7.0

4.8

3.8

3.8

Spain

-5.9

-1.1

-0.8

0.5

-2.9

-0.2

-0.7

-0.5

-0.6

-1.9

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.7

0.9

Sweden

-4.6

5.6

4.3

2.6

3.7

5.1

6.3

7.3

5.6

4.9

4.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

0.7

0.9

0.3

2.5

-2.8

1.0

2.2

3.2

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

3.6

2.1

2.1

2.2

Taiwan

-3.6

9.9

3.3

4.7

14.8

10.3

10.2

5.1

3.0

4.1

2.7

3.6

5.2

5.0

4.4

4.2

Thailand

-6.9

10.3

3.4

4.1

19.3

8.4

11.6

3.4

0.6

6.4

3.2

3.3

4.5

2.6

4.6

4.6

Turkey

-5.1

10.6

12.2

2.6

8.6

8.4

10.2

14.8

16.1

14.7

13.2

5.9

2.0

2.3

2.7

3.5

Switzerland

UK

-5.5

2.7

0.4

1.9

1.0

2.9

3.9

2.9

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.8

USA

-3.6

3.2

1.9

2.9

1.9

3.8

4.1

3.2

2.7

1.7

1.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

3.1

3.2

Venezuela

-7.7

-0.5

5.7

6.0

4.1

10.0

3.9

4.6

-3.6

2.8

1.9

2.7

2.0

3.1

3.3

2.8

2.0

Emerging Markets

5.2

8.0

6.8

6.8

1.7 –

1.6 –

2.3 –

2.6 –

2.7 –

2.7 –

2.7 –

World

0.0

5.0

4.0

4.5

Vietnam Advanced Economies

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

19

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Exports of Goods and Services Exports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-6.4

14.6

-0.6

5.1

4.2

18.2

27.8

7.4

7.1

-7.3

-6.0

6.5

8.5

2.7

3.8

5.9

2.8

5.3

1.5

9.4

3.4

9.0

4.2

4.5

-3.4

-1.6

6.1

4.6

15.7

9.3

6.1

7.2

Brazil

-10.2

11.5

10.4

11.5

14.7

7.2

11.3

13.5

4.3

13.5

12.0

11.0

11.0

12.0

12.0

11.0

Canada

-13.8

6.4

5.2

6.2

2.5

9.7

6.5

7.0

6.4

4.0

5.6

5.0

5.1

6.1

6.6

6.8

Chile

-6.4

1.9

5.6

4.3

-5.6

0.6

8.0

5.1

9.5

4.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.5

4.5

China

-17.1

30.3

18.0

18.5

-8.2

2.0

7.6

5.2

-4.9

2.4

2.1

9.1

11.5

4.5

9.5

5.0

5.5

5.0

6.0

4.5

Colombia Denmark

-9.7

3.8

9.1

4.3

-1.8

3.5

6.2

7.7

10.7

9.9

7.8

8.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

Ecuador

-5.9

2.3

2.5

2.5

53.9

33.1

7.3

17.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

Euroland

-13.1

11.1

6.9

4.7

7.4

13.2

12.2

11.5

9.7

6.6

6.0

5.5

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

France

-12.2

9.4

5.6

4.6

5.9

9.8

10.8

10.9

7.8

5.6

4.3

4.7

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.9

Germany

-14.3

14.4

7.7

4.1

8.6

17.9

16.3

14.7

12.8

6.7

6.3

5.4

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

Hong Kong

-10.1

16.8

11.9

11.9

20.7

19.8

19.7

8.4

15.1

9.2

10.6

13.3

11.0

11.6

12.1

12.6

India

-6.8

17.9

17.0

14.0

10.0

10.7

24.8

25.0

17.4

17.2

16.8

16.7

14.4

14.2

13.9

13.6

Indonesia

-9.7

14.9

17.3

10.1

20.0

14.6

9.6

16.1

12.3

21.8

20.2

15.0

16.0

9.3

8.2

8.0

Italy

-18.4

8.9

6.4

5.2

6.2

9.7

9.8

9.7

7.3

6.3

5.3

6.7

6.2

5.7

4.9

4.1

Japan

-23.9

23.9

-0.5

9.3

34.7

30.2

21.2

13.2

6.5

-4.0

-3.8

-0.1

2.7

11.7

12.1

10.7

Malaysia

-10.5

9.9

7.2

9.1

19.1

14.0

6.8

1.7

3.7

7.0

9.0

9.0

8.5

9.0

10.0

9.0

Mexico

-21.2

27.8

13.6

7.1

9.9

26.4

16.6

21.2

8.6

8.6

8.6

8.6

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

Netherlands

-8.1

10.8

5.7

3.2

9.3

12.3

10.9

10.7

6.9

6.3

5.5

4.1

4.1

3.0

2.8

2.9

New Zealand

1.9

2.8

3.0

2.3

6.2

2.2

0.2

2.8

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.7

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.7

Norway

-3.8

-1.7

-1.4

1.9

1.7

-0.5

-3.6

-4.5

-6.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.9

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

Peru

-3.2

2.5

6.2

7.0

0.2

-0.1

7.0

2.7

3.4

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

Philippines

-13.4

21.0

7.2

6.6

18.8

24.0

23.1

16.8

3.3

5.2

7.9

13.0

10.0

6.4

5.3

5.3

Poland

-16.0

20.5

12.1

11.1

18.5

25.1

20.6

17.8

12.6

10.0

12.8

13.2

10.3

10.8

11.1

12.2

Singapore

-8.1

19.2

6.8

8.5

21.7

24.4

19.8

12.1

8.4

5.0

6.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

South Korea

-1.2

14.5

12.1

10.0

16.7

14.5

11.6

15.7

16.8

11.0

10.7

10.4

10.0

10.2

10.0

9.8 9.7

Spain

-11.6

10.3

12.3

9.4

9.4

11.9

9.4

10.5

11.2

12.1

14.0

12.1

9.1

9.3

9.5

Sweden

-13.2

10.6

8.9

6.7

3.0

12.1

13.2

14.0

13.6

8.9

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.7

7.0

7.3

-8.7

10.3

4.4

1.4

11.0

14.6

9.2

6.6

7.2

3.8

3.4

3.3

-0.5

1.6

2.2

2.3

Switzerland

-8.7

25.7

8.0

8.6

39.1

32.9

20.5

15.1

10.9

6.5

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.6

9.3

9.5

Thailand

Taiwan

-12.5

14.7

10.2

9.0

16.6

22.3

11.7

9.5

15.9

5.0

9.0

11.0

8.0

8.0

10.0

10.0

UK

-10.1

5.2

9.2

7.2

1.6

6.5

7.2

5.6

9.3

8.3

9.8

9.5

8.5

7.7

6.4

6.1

-9.5

11.7

8.4

8.4

11.4

14.1

12.7

8.9

8.0

8.2

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.2

8.2

8.5

USA Venezuela

-13.7

-12.9

7.8

9.0

Vietnam

-11.0

20.0

8.2

10.0

Advanced Economies

-11.6

12.6

6.9

7.3

12.6

15.4

12.9

10.1

8.5

6.0

6.5

6.6

6.9

7.5

7.5

7.5

World

-11.2

14.8

9.2

9.3

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

20

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Imports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2009 -19.0

2010 34.0

2010

2011

2011

2012

13.7

2.9

Q1 30.1

Q2 35.6

Q3 37.4

Q4 32.7

Q1 20.4

2012

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

17.2

12.7

6.6

5.3

4.9

1.9

0.1

-9.0

13.3

11.3

12.1

13.6

17.6

13.4

9.0

9.0

9.7

14.3

12.3

13.6

12.5

10.9

11.5

Brazil

-11.5

36.2

16.9

14.5

39.6

38.9

40.9

27.2

24.0

20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

13.0

14.8

16.0

Canada

-13.4

13.1

6.8

5.4

11.5

17.5

13.5

10.2

9.4

5.8

5.2

6.9

5.9

5.5

5.3

5.0

Chile

-14.6

29.5

10.4

8.2

19.7

35.3

36.8

26.0

20.6

China

8.0 –

6.0 –

10.0 –

9.0 –

8.0 –

6.0 – 6.0

-14.5

31.3

17.8

19.0

9.0 –

Colombia

-9.1

6.3

11.6

6.5

4.2

16.7

23.1

16.2

21.4

12.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.0

Denmark

-12.5

3.9

6.0

4.9

-2.5

6.7

4.6

7.0

8.2

4.5

5.9

5.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

Ecuador

-11.6

16.3

4.2

5.0

19.9

47.2

47.7

36.2

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

Euroland

-11.8

9.3

6.2

4.6

4.2

11.5

10.8

10.9

8.7

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

France

-10.6

8.3

7.3

5.1

2.1

8.5

13.4

9.2

10.7

8.1

4.5

6.2

4.7

5.0

5.5

5.2

Germany

-9.4

12.8

6.2

5.0

4.5

17.5

13.5

16.2

10.5

4.3

4.8

5.4

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.7

Hong Kong

-9.0

17.3

11.3

11.8

26.1

22.2

16.1

7.5

11.8

9.5

11.1

12.7

11.2

11.2

12.0

12.5

-15.0

17.3

21.7

9.8

22.6

18.4

12.2

16.9

15.6

18.0

20.7

31.0

10.4

11.2

8.9

9.1

-2.1

9.2

17.6

14.2

15.5

11.6

0.4

10.3

18.0

17.3

17.0

14.6

14.2

13.7

14.2

9.4

5.9

4.0

4.7

4.9

4.6

4.6

7.1

6.3

8.7

8.7

8.7

8.0

7.4

Indonesia India Italy

-13.8

10.3

6.9

4.7

6.4

9.2

13.0

12.5

18.1 8.6

Japan

-15.3

9.8

7.7

8.2

3.8

14.5

11.5

9.8

8.7

Malaysia

-12.2

15.1

8.8

10.6

27.8

22.6

11.2

3.5

8.4

7.0

9.5

10.0

10.0

11.0

10.5

11.0

Mexico

-22.6

24.7

12.8

7.5

7.0

29.7

13.4

23.4

9.7

9.7

9.7

9.7

11.6

11.6

11.6

11.6

Netherlands

-8.0

10.6

5.7

2.8

7.7

14.0

10.6

10.0

7.2

4.7

6.0

5.0

3.2

2.7

2.5

2.5

New Zealand

-14.9

9.9

7.2

4.3

6.0

8.9

11.3

13.3

7.6

11.2

8.0

2.4

5.8

3.7

3.9

3.9

Norway

-11.6

8.9

14.5

4.5

7.7

12.9

8.4

6.8

16.9

11.0

14.7

15.6

5.4

5.0

4.1

3.6

Peru

-18.6

23.8

10.2

8.5

12.3

24.0

35.3

23.4

13.5

10.0

10.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

8.0

8.0

-1.9

22.5

10.1

7.0

24.2

22.1

22.1

21.9

8.8

8.4

12.0

11.0

10.0

6.0

6.0

6.3

Philippines Poland

-24.5

22.6

11.9

11.5

17.6

26.9

22.8

23.0

13.7

11.7

10.9

11.5

10.2

12.1

11.9

11.6

Singapore

-11.0

16.6

8.0

9.7

16.8

20.3

16.7

12.8

5.6

7.0

9.0

10.2

10.0

8.5

10.0

10.1

-8.0

16.9

12.1

11.7

21.5

18.0

14.7

14.2

10.8

10.5

11.8

15.1

16.5

12.0

10.0

9.0

Spain

-17.8

5.4

5.0

5.0

2.0

9.6

5.0

5.3

5.2

1.6

7.0

6.5

3.9

4.7

5.5

6.0

Sweden

-13.6

12.3

9.0

6.1

5.5

17.5

13.5

12.9

12.6

8.4

7.8

7.5

5.7

6.5

6.1

5.9

-5.4

8.0

1.3

2.0

2.4

12.1

8.9

8.7

4.8

0.4

0.5

-0.4

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.2

Taiwan

-12.8

28.2

6.9

9.3

49.3

34.0

22.3

14.3

6.6

7.1

6.8

7.0

10.2

7.5

9.4

10.3

South Korea

Switzerland Thailand

-21.5

21.5

11.3

9.2

33.3

24.6

21.3

10.5

16.2

10.5

12.0

7.0

7.0

6.4

11.5

11.5

UK

-12.0

8.8

3.2

4.6

5.3

10.0

10.7

9.2

4.2

3.5

3.4

1.8

5.1

4.9

4.3

4.1

USA

-13.8

12.6

4.7

6.7

6.2

17.4

16.1

10.9

9.4

Venezuela

-19.6

-2.9

11.0

11.3

3.3 –

0.6 –

6.0 –

6.0 –

6.4 –

7.1 –

7.4 –

Vietnam

-10.9

18.9

7.6

8.0

Advanced Economies

-12.9

11.8

6.1

6.6

7.5

15.4

13.6

10.9

8.8

5.2

4.2

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.6

World

-11.7

15.2

9.3

9.1

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

21

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Current Account

Current Acc, US$bn

2009

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

11.1

3.1

-0.9

-0.4

Argentina

3.6

0.8

-0.2

-0.1

Australia

-42.0

-31.7

-42.1

-76.0

Australia

-4.2

-2.6

-2.8

-4.9

Brazil

-25.3

-47.5

-59.0

-75.0

Brazil

-1.6

-2.3

-2.3

-2.9

Canada

-38.3

-49.1

-39.4

-31.3

Canada

-3.0

-3.1

-2.3

-1.7

2.6

3.8

1.1

-0.4

1.6

1.9

0.5

-0.1

297.1

306.2

337.3

363.6

6.0

5.2

4.8

4.3

-5.2

-9.0

-8.0

-8.6

Colombia

-2.2

-3.1

-2.4

-2.5

-3.2

-3.8

-2.8

-3.0

3.6

5.1

5.2

5.9

Chile China Colombia

Current Acc, % GDP

Chile China

Czech Republic

-6.1

-7.4

-6.3

-7.2

Czech Republic

Denmark

11.1

16.0

17.2

20.3

Denmark

Dominican Republic

-2.3

-4.4

-4.9

-3.7

Dominican Republic

-5.0

-8.6

-9.0

-6.2

Ecuador

-0.2

-1.9

-2.3

-2.5

Egypt

-4.4

-1.9

0.3

–

Euroland

-42.9

-48.6

-63.3

France

-39.2

-45.7

Germany

187.8

Greece

Ecuador

-0.4

-3.3

-3.6

-3.8

Egypt

-2.3

-2.1

-3.6

-3.0

-10.0

Euroland

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-56.0

-37.3

France

-1.5

-1.8

-1.9

-1.2

188.1

163.8

167.4

Germany

5.6

5.6

4.3

4.1

-26.2

-23.5

-17.9

-15.4

Greece

-11.2

-10.2

-8.0

-6.8

18.0

14.8

18.3

23.6

Hong Kong

8.6

6.6

7.4

8.7

0.5

2.7

2.9

1.0

Hungary

0.4

2.1

1.9

0.6

-38.7

-44.6

-68.2

-86.5

-2.8

-2.6

-3.4

-3.8

10.6

5.7

2.5

6.1

Indonesia

2.0

0.8

0.3

0.6

7.1

6.4

2.6

1.0

Israel

3.6

2.9

1.0

0.5

Italy

-42.2

-72.2

-93.6

-98.8

Italy

-2.0

-3.5

-4.0

-4.0

Japan

Japan

1.9

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Israel

141.4

192.2

111.1

104.4

Kazakhstan

-4.4

4.3

8.7

4.3

Malaysia

31.9

27.3

31.5

India

2.8

3.6

2.0

Kazakhstan

-3.8

3.0

5.0

2.1

35.6

Malaysia

16.5

11.5

11.1

10.8 -0.6

Mexico

-6.4

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

Mexico

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

Netherlands

38.8

56.8

82.9

86.3

Netherlands

4.9

7.2

9.3

9.0

New Zealand

-3.2

-5.6

-5.4

-7.1

New Zealand

-2.8

-4.0

-3.5

-4.3

Norway

48.2

53.6

58.0

65.9

Norway

13.4

12.9

11.2

11.4

Peru

0.2

-2.3

-4.3

-6.0

Peru

0.2

-1.5

-2.5

-3.3

Philippines

9.4

8.5

8.2

9.1

Philippines

5.8

4.2

3.5

3.5

-9.5

-16.1

-23.0

-28.3

Poland

-2.2

-3.4

-3.9

-4.3

Poland Russia

49.5

70.6

83.7

68.2

Russia

4.0

4.7

4.3

2.8

Singapore

35.1

49.5

57.8

69.2

Singapore

19.1

22.2

21.6

22.8

South Africa

-11.2

-10.1

-16.7

-21.8

South Africa

-3.9

-2.8

-4.0

-4.5

South Korea

32.8

28.2

15.0

6.8

South Korea

3.9

2.8

1.3

0.5

-75.9

-65.3

-48.4

-47.3

-5.2

-4.6

-3.0

-2.8

Spain Sweden

28.3

29.1

36.7

40.9

Switzerland

41.3

64.6

100.5

103.6

Spain

7.0

6.3

6.4

6.5

Switzerland

Sweden

11.5

14.6

16.1

15.8

11.4

9.3

8.1

8.1

8.3

4.6

5.1

4.5

Turkey

-2.1

-6.5

-8.5

-7.0

Taiwan

42.9

39.9

40.4

44.3

Taiwan

Thailand

21.9

14.8

18.5

18.2

Thailand

Turkey

-13.5

-46.7

-67.7

-66.4

UK

-36.4

-72.1

-39.3

-18.1

UK

-1.7

-3.2

-1.5

-0.6

-1.7

-2.9

-6.6

-11.7

Ukraine

-1.5

-2.1

-4.2

-6.5

-376.6

-470.9

-470.2

-543.2

USA

-2.7

-3.2

-3.1

-3.4

8.6

14.4

18.5

11.0

Venezuela

2.6

6.0

6.2

3.0

-6.1

-3.9

-5.6

-0.7

Vietnam

-6.6

-3.8

-4.9

-0.6

Advanced Economies

Ukraine USA Venezuela Vietnam

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Volume 9, Issue 3

22

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Emerging Markets

2.3

1.6

1.3

1.0

World

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Industrial Production Industrial Production, % change, yoy 2011

2012

1.4

3.4

Q1 6.2

Q2 7.2

2011 Q3 5.1

Q4 0.0

Q1 -1.3

2012

Australia

2009 -1.6

Canada

-10.7

5.8

4.9

5.4

2.2

7.8

8.0

5.4

5.0

3.9

4.7

5.9

5.0

5.6

5.6

5.5

11.4

15.3

14.6

14.8

19.6

16.0

13.5

13.3

14.4

13.9

15.3

14.8

13.9

15.3

15.0

14.7 3.4

China

2010 4.5

2010

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.4

1.8

4.6

5.2

3.2

2.8

2.4

Denmark

-17.0

2.2

4.7

4.2

-7.4

2.3

7.8

7.0

6.5

3.4

2.0

7.1

5.1

4.5

4.0

Euroland

-14.7

7.4

4.8

3.0

5.1

9.3

7.3

8.1

6.6

4.8

4.4

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.3

France

-12.4

5.0

2.5

1.5

4.4

7.2

4.3

4.0

3.8

2.0

2.3

2.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.2

Germany

-16.4

10.8

7.6

3.0

6.9

12.7

10.7

12.6

12.3

7.7

6.5

4.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.2

5.3

8.2

7.3

7.3

9.6

6.8

8.6

7.7

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.1

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

India

1.3

4.4

5.3

5.3

4.3

4.3

3.7

5.5

5.2

Israel

Indonesia

-6.0

8.0

3.4

3.4

5.3 –

5.3 –

Japan

-21.8

16.6

-2.7

6.1

28.0

21.2

14.0

6.0

-2.5

-6.0

-2.5

0.0

0.7

6.0

9.0

8.5

-7.7

7.5

4.9

11.1

11.1

4.3

4.1

2.6

6.0 –

6.0 –

5.5 –

5.9 –

6.3 –

6.7 – 4.8

Malaysia Mexico

-7.2

4.7

4.1

6.1 –

4.1

6.9

4.8

3.1

5.0 –

Netherlands

-7.4

7.1

1.0

4.1

7.5

10.6

4.7

5.7

0.7

-0.2

2.9

0.8

2.8

4.2

4.5

Norway

-6.4

2.8

4.9

6.5

0.1

4.2

4.0

2.9

2.8

5.0

4.9

6.9

7.6

6.8

6.5

5.4

-11.9

23.2

7.4

11.0

10.0

27.4

20.8

16.2

12.7

5.0

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.6

8.1

8.7

Poland

-3.7

11.1

7.3

6.7

10.2

12.5

11.9

9.8

9.0

7.1

6.4

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.9

Russia

-9.3

6.3

6.1

4.4

9.8

9.7

6.2

6.3

5.3

5.7

7.1

6.1

5.0

4.1

4.7

4.4 9.0

Philippines

-4.2

29.7

8.8

9.0

37.2

45.3

13.7

25.7

13.1

5.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

South Africa

Singapore

-12.7

4.9

4.8

4.5

4.2

8.9

4.5

2.1

4.4

1.2

4.6

4.7

1.8

4.5

4.2

4.6

South Korea

-0.2

14.8

9.1

10.4

25.8

19.5

10.5

6.0

3.4

7.6

9.8

15.4

15.2

10.4

8.4

8.2

Spain

-15.5

0.8

0.7

3.2

-0.1

2.6

0.4

0.4

1.6

-0.9

0.8

1.2

1.3

3.4

4.0

4.3

Sweden

-19.3

8.7

10.6

6.6

2.2

10.1

10.9

11.4

15.8

12.6

8.6

6.0

5.9

5.9

6.9

7.6

Switzerland

-7.9

6.2

8.2

6.4

5.2

8.0

5.4

6.1

7.6

7.5

9.3

8.5

6.0

5.7

6.6

7.0

Taiwan

-8.1

26.9

13.2

18.5

48.8

29.7

18.8

17.7

14.8

10.0

14.0

14.0

16.0

17.6

19.2

20.8

Thailand

-9.7

17.5

9.7

15.1

34.1

23.2

12.1

4.9

1.0

12.0

13.0

13.0

14.0

14.7

15.4

16.1

Turkey

-10.2

13.1

9.7

3.5

17.2

13.8

10.2

11.8

14.3

12.1

10.5

2.7

2.7

2.9

3.7

4.7

UK

-10.0

2.1

1.7

0.3

1.7

3.1

3.3

1.9

Ukraine

-20.5

10.7

6.0

2.9 –

1.1 –

1.9 –

1.9 –

2.8 –

3.2 –

2.9 –

2.9 –

USA

-11.2

5.3

3.7

2.8

1.5

6.5

6.9

6.3

5.5

3.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.2

6.8

14.0

13.3

7.3

13.4

13.0

14.2

15.3

14.2

10.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-12.3

8.1

3.8

4.2

7.9

10.1

8.1

6.8

4.9

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.5

4.1

4.6

4.7

-6.3

8.6

5.7

5.9

9.4

10.0

8.1

7.2

6.2

5.2

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.9

6.2

6.2

Vietnam Advanced Economies World

China: This is based on a much broader survey than the monthly indicator of industrial production, and therefore the annual growth rates based on GDP accounting and those based on monthly survey data often differ significantly. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

23

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Unemployment Rate %

%

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

9

12

Japan

Euroland

11

USA

10

Advanced Economies

8 7

9 8

6

7 5

6 5

4

4 3

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

Unemployment Rate, % 2010 7.8

2011

2012

6.9

Australia

5.6

5.2

Brazil

6.8

5.3

Canada

8.3

Chile Colombia

01

02

03

2010 2009 8.7

Argentina

3

12

04

05

06

07

08

09

2011

10

11

12

2012

Q2 7.9

Q3 7.5

Q4 7.3

Q1 7.4

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

7.1

Q1 8.3

7.1

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.1

7.0

7.0

4.9

4.5

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.6

5.3

5.6

7.6

7.0

6.2

5.3

6.5

6.1

5.3

7.0

6.7

6.6

5.6

8.0

7.6

7.2

8.2

8.0

8.0

7.7

7.8

6.1 7.5

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.1

9.6

9.0

8.5

8.0

9.0

8.5

8.0

8.3

7.3

6.8

6.5

5.8

7.0

6.5

6.2

5.5

12.0

11.8

10.8

10.0

13.0

12.0

11.5

10.7

12.4

10.6

10.3

10.1

10.6

10.4

10.2

10.0

Czech Republic

8.2

8.9

8.8

8.6

9.3

8.9

8.7

8.9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.5

Denmark

4.8

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.1

5.9

8.1

9.0

5.1 –

5.9

Ecuador

5.7 –

5.8 –

5.6 –

5.5 –

5.3 –

5.2 –

5.0 –

4.9 –

Euroland

9.5

10.1

9.8

9.4

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.0

9.9

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.2

France

9.1

9.3

8.5

7.4

9.5

9.3

9.3

9.2

8.7

8.6

8.4

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.2

6.9

Germany

8.2

7.7

7.0

7.0

8.1

8.0

7.7

7.6

7.4

Greece

9.5

12.6

14.5

15.0

11.0

12.2

7.3 –

7.1 –

6.9 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

Hong Kong

5.2

4.4

3.2

3.2

4.4

4.6

4.2

4.0

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

Hungary

10.0

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.8

11.1

10.9

10.8

11.6

Indonesia

7.9

7.1

7.8

7.6

11.4 –

11.3 –

11.2 –

11.3 –

11.1 –

11.0 –

10.9 –

Italy

7.8

8.4

8.1

8.0

8.5

8.5

8.3

8.4

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.9

Japan

5.0

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

Malaysia

3.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

Netherlands

3.7

4.5

4.1

3.8

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

New Zealand

7.0

6.7

6.5

5.7

6.1

6.9

6.4

6.7

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.7

Norway

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

Philippines

7.3

7.4

7.3

7.0

8.0

6.9

7.1

7.4

7.2

7.0

7.3

7.3

7.5

7.0

7.0

7.0

Poland

8.2

9.6

9.1

8.5

9.8

9.6

9.5

9.6

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4

Singapore

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

South Korea

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.6

18.0

20.1

20.6

20.5

19.4

20.0

20.4

20.5

20.6

20.7

20.7

20.7

20.7

20.6

20.5

20.4

Spain Sweden

8.3

8.4

7.5

6.8

8.7

8.5

8.3

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.6

Switzerland

3.7

3.9

3.0

2.2

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

Taiwan

5.8

4.7

3.5

3.0

5.6

5.2

5.1

4.7

4.4

4.2

3.8

3.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

3.0

Thailand

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.2

1.0

0.7

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.7

UK

7.7

7.9

7.7

7.6

8.0

7.8

7.7

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

USA

9.3

9.6

9.1

8.9

9.7

9.6

9.6

9.6

8.9

Vietnam

4.6

4.4

5.2

6.2

9.1 –

9.2 –

9.2 –

9.1 –

9.0 –

8.9 –

8.8 –

Advanced Economies

8.2

8.5

8.1

7.8

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

24

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Prices CPI Inflation Consumer Prices, % change, yoy Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Egypt Ecuador Euroland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Nigeria Norway Panama Peru Philippines Poland Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK Ukraine USA Venezuela Vietnam Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

2009 6.3 1.8 4.9 0.3 1.5 -0.7 2.4 1.0 1.1 4.3 9.9 5.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.6 4.2 3.8 4.8 3.3 0.8 -1.4 7.3 0.6 5.3 1.0 2.1 12.5 2.2 1.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 11.7 0.6 7.1 2.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 6.3 2.2 16.0 -0.3 28.6 6.7 0.2 3.8 1.7

2010 10.5 2.8 5.2 1.8 1.4 3.3 2.7 1.5 2.2 9.2 10.1 3.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 4.6 2.4 4.9 9.6 5.1 2.7 1.6 -0.7 7.1 1.7 4.2 0.9 2.3 13.7 2.4 4.9 1.5 3.8 2.6 6.8 2.8 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 1.0 3.3 8.6 3.3 9.4 1.6 29.1 9.2 1.6 5.8 3.4

2010 2011 9.7 3.6 6.6 2.7 3.3 4.7 4.1 2.2 2.9 11.8 11.5 4.6 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.9 5.3 3.9 8.6 6.3 3.8 2.8 0.7 9.5 3.7 3.4 2.3 4.6 15.0 1.5 7.5 2.9 5.0 4.5 8.7 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.0 3.0 0.6 2.3 4.1 6.5 4.2 9.5 3.2 26.6 16.0 2.9 6.6 4.5

2012 12.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.2 2.4 2.0 9.1 12.0 4.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.0 5.0 4.3 5.1 6.4 2.7 2.0 0.3 7.5 3.7 3.6 1.7 3.1 15.0 2.1 7.0 2.5 5.0 3.3 6.4 3.3 6.0 3.7 1.6 3.1 1.8 2.4 3.8 7.7 2.2 8.7 2.2 21.3 8.3 2.1 5.1 3.4

Q1 6.6 2.9 5.2 1.6 0.0 2.2 3.4 0.7 1.9 5.9 – 4.0 1.1 1.4 0.8 3.1 1.9 6.0 10.5 3.7 – 1.3 -1.2 – 1.3 4.9 0.4 2.1 – 2.9 2.7 0.7 4.3 3.0 7.2 0.9 5.7 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.8 9.3 3.3 11.2 2.4 27.4 8.5 1.7 5.1 3.1

Q2 7.7 3.1 4.8 1.4 -0.4 2.9 2.6 1.2 2.0 6.3 – 3.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 5.1 2.6 5.4 9.3 4.4 – 1.6 -0.9 – 1.6 4.5 0.4 1.7 – 2.6 2.8 1.1 4.2 2.3 5.9 3.1 4.5 2.6 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 3.3 9.2 3.4 8.3 1.8 31.9 9.0 1.6 5.0 3.0

2011

Q3 9.1 2.8 4.7 1.8 0.3 3.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 8.0 – 3.6 1.7 1.8 1.2 – 2.2 3.8 8.9 6.2 – 1.7 -0.8 – 1.8 4.1 1.3 1.5 – 1.9 4.2 2.2 3.8 2.2 6.1 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.4 3.3 8.4 3.1 8.5 1.2 29.8 8.4 1.4 5.2 3.0

Q4 10.2 2.7 5.9 2.3 1.4 4.7 2.2 2.0 2.5 9.2 – 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 – 2.8 4.4 9.6 6.3 – 2.0 0.1 – 2.0 4.2 1.5 4.0 – 2.2 4.9 2.1 2.9 2.9 8.1 4.0 3.5 3.6 2.5 1.9 0.3 1.1 2.8 7.4 3.4 9.5 1.2 27.3 10.8 1.7 6.0 3.5

Q1 10.7 3.3 6.3 2.6 2.2 5.0 2.5 1.8 2.6 11.3 – 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.2 – 3.9 4.2 9.4 6.8 – 2.3 0.0 – 2.8 3.8 2.0 4.5 – 1.4 5.5 2.4 4.1 3.8 9.5 5.2 3.8 4.5 3.2 2.3 0.6 1.3 3.0 4.3 4.1 7.7 2.2 29.1 12.8 2.3 6.2 4.0

Q2 10.6 3.8 6.6 2.9 2.7 5.7 2.7 1.9 3.0 11.5 – 4.2 2.8 2.2 2.5 – 5.0 4.0 9.6 5.9 – 2.9 0.8 – 3.4 3.7 2.3 5.3 – 1.3 6.1 3.1 5.7 4.8 9.5 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.4 2.9 0.3 1.6 4.1 5.9 4.4 10.5 3.3 24.6 19.4 3.0 6.6 4.6

Q3 10.2 3.8 6.9 2.7 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.4 2.9 11.7 – 5.2 2.8 2.4 2.6 – 7.3 3.6 8.9 6.1 – 3.0 1.2 – 4.2 3.6 2.6 5.1 – 1.8 6.8 2.9 5.8 4.8 8.4 3.7 5.1 4.0 3.0 3.5 0.4 3.1 4.8 7.7 4.4 10.3 3.6 26.0 17.2 3.2 6.3 4.5

2012 Q4 9.8 3.6 6.5 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 2.7 3.0 11.8 – 5.4 2.7 2.4 2.7 – 5.0 3.9 6.6 6.3 – 3.0 0.8 – 4.3 3.4 2.3 3.5 – 1.5 7.5 3.3 4.8 4.4 7.2 3.2 6.0 4.0 2.5 3.4 1.2 3.2 4.6 7.9 4.0 9.6 3.6 26.8 14.5 3.0 5.3 4.0

Q1 9.7 3.1 6.0 2.3 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.5 2.5 11.5 – 4.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 – 5.2 3.9 5.6 6.1 – 2.6 0.4 – 3.7 3.2 1.9 3.3 – 1.2 7.4 2.8 4.5 3.6 6.6 3.5 6.0 3.4 1.7 3.2 0.9 2.9 4.2 8.6 2.6 10.1 2.7 24.2 10.0 2.4 4.7 3.4

Q2 10.3 2.8 5.7 1.9 3.6 2.8 3.4 2.5 1.9 10.9 – 4.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 – 5.4 4.1 5.0 6.2 – 1.6 0.1 – 3.6 3.4 1.4 3.0 – 2.1 7.2 2.2 4.2 3.3 6.6 3.3 5.7 3.7 1.4 2.8 1.6 2.9 4.0 8.1 2.1 8.6 2.2 22.8 8.0 2.0 4.4 3.1

Q3 11.3 3.2 6.1 2.0 3.6 2.9 3.2 2.3 1.8 10.1 – 4.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 – 4.9 4.7 4.9 6.6 – 1.8 0.2 – 3.4 3.6 1.6 3.0 – 2.5 7.1 2.3 4.9 3.2 6.4 3.2 6.2 3.9 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.2 3.5 7.3 2.1 8.2 2.1 19.7 8.0 2.0 4.4 3.1

Q4 12.3 3.7 5.9 2.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.2 1.8 9.1 – 4.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 – 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.6 – 1.9 0.3 – 3.9 3.6 1.9 3.0 – 2.5 7.0 2.5 6.2 3.0 6.2 3.1 6.1 3.8 1.8 3.2 2.3 1.7 3.6 6.7 1.9 8.0 1.9 19.0 7.0 2.0 4.5 3.1

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. For India Consumer Price Table we use Wholesale Prices. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

25

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

GDP Deflators % chg

% chg

GDP Deflators

6

GDP Deflators

6.0 Euroland

World 5

5.0

USA

4

4.0

3

3.0

2

2.0

1

1.0

0

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

GDP Deflator, % change, yoy Argentina Brazil

2009 10.0

UK

01

02

03

2010 2010 15.4

2011

2012

16.2

04

05

06

07

08

09

2011

10

11

12

2012

Q2 12.8

Q3 15.5

Q4 18.0

Q1 17.2

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

13.5

Q1 14.8

17.0

16.0

15.0

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

5.7

7.3

8.2

6.4

6.0

7.1

8.4

8.0

8.0

8.2

8.5

8.0

7.3

6.5

6.0

5.7

Canada

-1.9

2.9

3.4

2.5

3.3

3.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.7

3.9

3.0

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.6

China

-0.6

5.9

3.8

5.0

Chile

2.9

9.4

4.3

3.0

Colombia

4.2

3.4

3.6

3.0

Denmark

0.4

3.4

2.5

2.2

3.6

4.3

3.1

2.7

1.7

2.6 –

3.4 –

2.4 –

2.2 –

2.1 –

2.0 –

Ecuador

-4.4

7.0

3.5

3.5

2.1 –

Euroland

1.0

0.9

1.5

1.1

0.5

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.9

France

0.5

0.8

1.5

0.9

0.1

0.7

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.9

1.5

1.3

1.5

0.7

0.7

0.5

Germany

1.4

0.6

1.1

2.2

1.0

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.4

Greece

1.3

2.4

1.5

1.0

2.4

3.2

0.9 –

1.3 –

1.8 –

2.1 –

2.2 –

2.2 –

2.2 –

-0.6

0.4

4.7

5.0

0.9

-1.9

1.7

1.0

1.5

5.0

7.3

5.0

5.2

5.4

4.9

4.6

7.2

9.8

8.6

5.4

11.3

9.4

9.8

8.8

9.1

9.9

8.9

6.8

5.8

5.4

5.2

5.2

Hong Kong India

2.3

0.6

2.1

2.3

-0.1

0.6

1.1

0.9

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Japan

Italy

-0.4

-2.1

-0.4

0.2

-2.8

-2.0

-2.1

-1.6

-1.9

-0.3

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.3

-0.3

-0.3

Malaysia

-6.9

5.1

4.5

3.7

5.9

5.4

5.1

4.3

6.1

3.4

4.2

4.3

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.9

4.0

4.4

3.4

3.6

7.1

5.9

5.5

6.4

4.9

5.9

6.6

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

-0.4

1.3

1.8

2.0

-0.1

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Mexico Netherlands Peru

2.2

4.5

2.7

2.2

6.3

4.4

4.0

3.5

4.0

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Philippines

2.8

4.3

5.1

5.0

4.6

4.7

3.9

3.8

4.2

5.7

5.8

4.8

4.5

4.2

4.9

6.2

South Korea

3.4

3.7

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.6

4.4

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

Spain

0.6

1.0

1.7

1.3

0.6

0.5

1.3

1.4

1.8

2.1

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

Switzerland

0.3

0.1

-0.2

1.8

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.8

0.2

0.9

1.6

2.4

2.3

Taiwan

1.0

-1.8

0.0

1.0

-3.3

-1.5

-0.2

-1.9

-2.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Thailand

1.9

3.7

4.3

3.8

3.9

3.0

4.0

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.8

4.6

4.2

4.0

3.5

3.6

UK

1.4

2.9

4.2

2.9

2.8

3.6

2.2

3.1

3.0

4.9

4.9

4.0

4.2

2.5

2.6

2.6

USA

0.9

1.0

1.8

1.6

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.3

1.6

Venezuela

8.3

46.7

22.0

18.0

1.9 –

1.6 –

2.0 –

1.8 –

1.5 –

1.6 –

1.5 –

Vietnam

6.0

11.9

16.4

7.6

10.1

10.2

11.4

14.7

15.4

19.4

17.2

14.5

10.0

8.0

8.0

7.0

Advanced Economies

0.7

0.7

1.6

1.4

0.3

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

World

1.5

3.3

3.4

2.9

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

26

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Commodity Prices GSCI Spot Index

(US$/bbl)

S&P GSCITM Commodity Price Index

1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Jan-04

120 100

9000

60 40

Jan-06

Jan-08

20 Jan-07

Jan-10

Copper and Gold Prices

$/ounce

Copper (left scale) Gold (right scale)

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

Jan-04

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: GS

8000

0

Market Forward Curve

80

11000 10000

Goldman Sachs Forecast

140

Source: GS US$/mt

Crude Oil Prices

160

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Coffee and Wheat Prices

cents/bushel

1740 1640 1540 1440 1340 1240 1140 1040 940 840 740 640 540 440 340 240

US$/pound

1300 1200

3.0

Wheat (Left Scale)

1100 2.5

1000 900

2.0

800 700 600

Coffee (right scale)

1.5

500 1.0

400 300 200 Jan-04

Source: GS

Jan-06

Jan-08

0.5

Jan-10

Source: GS

Selected Commodity Prices Spot Price Changes (in %) Units

Current Price

2011

95.9

5.0

Past Performance 1-Mth 3-Mth

1-Wk

Forecasts 12-Mth

3-Mth

6-Mth

12-Mth

25.3

111.0

115.0

126.5

Energy WTI Crude Oil

$/bbl.

-1.5

2.9

-11.3

Industrial Metals Aluminum

$/lb.

1.1

1.1

0.0

-1.3

-8.0

26.6

1.2

1.3

1.3

Copper

$/lb.

4.4

1.0

0.5

7.7

3.8

48.9

4.3

4.4

5.0

Nickel

$/lb.

10.8

-3.8

0.7

9.9

-5.9

26.6

10.9

10.9

10.4

$/oz.

1602.4

12.7

2.6

4.0

7.2

35.6

1565.0

1635.0

1730.0

Precious Metals Gold Agricultural CBT Wheat

¢/bu.

689.5

-13.2

4.0

4.6

-12.3

18.4

590.0

600.0

620.0

Soybeans

¢/bu.

1385.5

-0.6

1.4

3.7

3.2

37.5

1300.0

1375.0

1375.0

Cotton

¢/lb.

98.0

-32.4

-8.1

-24.2

-42.8

24.4

125.0

125.0

100.0

Corn

¢/bu.

696.3

10.7

-0.1

-0.6

-7.0

82.5

590.0

575.0

570.0

Sugar

¢/lb.

28.9

-9.9

-5.1

5.4

19.2

64.3

25.0

20.0

20.0

Coffee

¢/lb.

248.2

3.2

-3.3

1.9

-14.8

53.2

235.0

200.0

175.0

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research

Volume 9, Issue 3

27

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Country Reports – G3 United States Present Situation: Growth is likely to average less than 2% in the first half of 2011, but some easing in energy prices and a rebound in vehicle production should lead to a modest rebound in the second half of the year. Key risks include a renewed rise in oil prices, a faster pace of fiscal tightening and heightened tensions regarding the European sovereign debt outlook.

% yoy

US: GDP and Industrial Production

10 5 0

Central Issue: Will a self-sustaining expansion in privatesector demand finally take hold, pushing growth above trend and beginning to whittle down the substantial spare capacity in the US economy? We think it can, barring interference from one of the aforementioned risk factors.

-5 -10 Industrial Production

-15

GDP

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect shortterm rates to stay very low as the Fed remains on hold through 2012; slightly higher core inflation and an improvement in the growth outlook should push longerterm yields somewhat higher in the remainder of the year and 2012.

-20

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Andrew Tilton

USA

2011 2009

2012

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Activity and Prices Consumers Expenditure % chg yoy

-1.2

1.7

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.9

2.9

Domestic Demand % chg yoy

-3.6

3.2

1.9

2.9

2.7

1.7

1.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

3.1

3.2

Real GDP % chg yoy

-2.6

2.9

2.3

3.0

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.2

3.2

Nominal GDP, US$bn

14119

14660

15260

15969

15018

15190

15314

15517

15683

15874

16059

16258

-0.3

1.6

3.2

2.2

2.2

3.3

3.6

3.6

2.7

2.2

2.1

1.9

Consumer Prices % chg yoy % chg, previous period, annualised Consumer Spending

-1.2

1.7

2.3

2.6

2.2

0.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

3.0

3.0

3.0

Domestic Demand

-3.6

3.2

1.9

2.9

1.7

1.2

2.1

3.4

2.6

3.1

3.5

3.6

Real GDP

-2.6

2.9

2.3

3.0

1.9

1.5

2.5

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.5

3.5

Labour Market Employment Cost Index

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Unemployment Rate

9.3

9.6

9.1

8.9

8.9

9.1

9.2

9.2

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.8

Trade Balance, US$ bn

-506

-646

-743

-805

-182

-183

-187

-191

-195

-197

-204

-208

Current Account, US$ bn

-377

-471

-470

-543

-119

-114

-117

-120

-125

-135

-141

-142

Current Account - % of GDP

-2.7

-3.2

-3.1

-3.4

-3.2

-3.0

-3.1

-3.1

-3.2

-3.4

-3.5

-3.5

5.1

4.6

4.5

6.2

4.9

4.8

4.7

3.7

5.2

5.0

0.1

External Sector

Financial Sector Broad Money - yoy

7.9

2.3

Fed Funds - %

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

3 Month LIBOR %

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.8

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.8

10 Year Govt. Bond Yield %

3.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.3

4.3

-1413

-1294

-1350

-1025

Debt Sector Federal Budget Balance ($bn, FY)

Note: For Nominal GDP quarterly paths are shown at an annualised rate as is common practice in US. Volume 9, Issue 3

28

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Japan Present Situation: The March 11 earthquake and tsunami severely disrupted the supply chain and damaged consumer sentiment. Q1 GDP declined -3.5% (qoq annualised), and we expect a similar decline in Q2. That said, disruptions have been deep but temporary, and we expect activity levels to recover to close to pre-earthquake levels in June. After relatively slow momentum in the summer, to conserve electricity usage, we expect manufacturing and exports to reaccelerate in Q4.

% yoy

Japan: GDP and Industrial Production

40 Industrial Production

30

GDP

20 10 0

Central Issue: A potential slowdown in the global economy is the main concern. Once production facilities return to normal, Japan's manufacturing activities should once again become a function of global demand. The supplementary reconstruction budget is also likely to be delayed until September.

-10 -20 -30 -40

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The JGB market remains nervous given the need for further fiscal expansion to finance the earthquake reconstruction, but private-sector markets should have no problem absorbing additional bond issuance.

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Yuriko Tanaka and Chiwoong Lee Japan

2011 2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Consumers Expenditure

-1.9

1.8

-1.1

0.9

-1.0

Domestic Demand

-4.7

2.2

0.1

2.5

-0.5

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-1.4

-2.0

-0.7

0.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

-0.3

-0.4

1.2

2.5

3.1

2.5

1.8

Activity and Prices % chg yoy

Real GDP

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

-1.0

-1.6

-1.5

0.3

2.1

3.8

3.3

2.6

Nominal GDP

-6.6

1.8

-1.2

3.2

-2.9

-1.9

-1.1

0.7

3.3

4.1

3.1

2.3

Nominal GDP, Yen bn

470937 479215 473023 507365 469437 468709 474936 479009

484945 488058 489657 489983

% chg, previous period annualised Consumers Expenditure

-1.9

1.8

-1.1

0.9

-2.2

-2.4

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

Domestic Demand

-4.7

2.2

0.1

2.5

-2.8

-0.2

4.2

3.7

2.5

2.0

1.8

1.1

Real GDP

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

-3.5

-3.7

4.2

4.5

3.8

2.6

2.4

1.5

Nominal GDP

-6.6

1.8

-1.2

3.2

-5.1

-0.8

5.4

3.7

4.9

2.4

1.4

0.6

Consumer Prices

-1.4

-0.7

0.7

0.3

0.0

0.8

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.3

GDP Deflator

-0.4

-2.1

-0.4

0.2

-1.9

-0.3

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.3

-0.3

-0.3

Output and Prices

External Sector Trade Balance (Y bn) Current Account (Y bn) Current Account - % of GDP

4038

7979

849

1022

921

-479

163

223

616

-67

229

223

13287

17171

9583

9398

3505

1387

2627

2551

2919

1832

2653

2590

2.8

3.6

2.0

1.9

3.0

1.2

2.2

2.1

2.4

1.5

2.2

2.1 3.0

Financial Sector M2, yoy

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

Overnight Call Rate (%)

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Discount Rate (%)

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

3 Month Interest Rate (%)

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

10 Year Govt. Bond Yield (%)

1.3

1.1

1.6

1.9

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

53.4

44.0

47.0

47.0

-46

-45

-49

-50

-9.8

-9.5

-10.2

-10.1

93.5

87.8

81.5

84.8

82.3

81.6

80.1

82.0

82.7

84.7

86.0

86.0

Public Sector Government Bond Issuance, Y trn Gen. Govt Balance, Yen trn Gen. Govt Balance (% of GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/Yen

Note: For Nominal GDP quarterly paths are shown at an annualised rate as is common practice in Japan. Volume 9, Issue 3

29

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Euroland Present Situation: Recovery momentum has slowed over the past couple of months, but at this stage we would interpret this as a normalisation after very strong growth at the beginning of the year rather than a genuine slowdown. However, the divergence between core countries and the periphery remains, with Germany in particular growing strongly while peripheral countries are stagnating at best.

% yoy

Euroland: GDP and Industrial Production

15 10 5 0

Central Issue: While Euro-zone governments have decided in principle to support Greece with a second funding package, the pending issue of private-sector involvement has reignited financial market tensions. These tensions have also now spread to Italy and Spain. We remain of the view that governments and the ECB are determined to prevent any systemic event. Finding a common response, however, will not necessarily be easy given the political constraints.

-5 -10 Industrial Production -15 -20

GDP 01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Developments in relative inflation rates and sovereign bond spreads will likely continue to reflect the core-periphery divergence within EMU. We expect the ECB to raise rates by a further 50bp before year-end. Dirk Schumacher Euroland

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Activity and Prices % chg yoy Consumers Expenditure

-1.2

0.8

1.1

1.6

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

Domestic Demand

-3.5

0.9

1.7

1.6

2.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

Real GDP

-4.1

1.7

2.1

1.7

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

Nominal GDP

-3.2

2.6

3.6

2.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.1

2.7

2.7

2.8

Nominal GDP, EUR bn

8949.9 9181.6 9514.6 9783.4

2346.6 2374.7 2390.9 2402.4

2420.1 2438.1 2455.9 2469.4

Core CPI

1.3

1.0

1.7

1.9

1.3

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.9

2.0

Consumer Prices

0.3

1.6

2.7

2.0

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.2

1.8

2.0

2.1

Consumers Expenditure

1.3

0.9

1.2

1.2

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.0

Exports of Goods and Services

7.6

5.1

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.9

Imports of Goods and Services

7.6

4.2

4.2

4.5

4.9

4.8

4.6

4.1

Domestic Demand

3.4

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.8

Real GDP

3.3

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.1

% chg, previous period annualised

External Sector Trade Balance EUR bn Current Account EUR bn Current Account - % of GDP

13.7

-8.6

-16.0

20.2

-8.5

-6.9

-2.6

2.1

3.9

5.5

5.6

5.3

-30.8

-36.0

-43.5

-6.7

-14.8

-14.5

-9.7

-4.5

-2.8

-1.3

-1.3

-1.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

1.6

4.2

6.2

2.0

2.3

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.2

6.2

6.2

0.7

1.0

1.9

2.8

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.8

Financial Sector M3 Growth (%) 3 Month Interest Rate % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Balance - EUR bn Budget Balance % of GDP

Volume 9, Issue 3

79.5

85.4

87.6

86.9

-566.5

-550.6

-415.6

-347.3

-6.3

-6.0

-4.4

-3.6

30

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Country Reports – Europe Czech Republic Present Situation: The economy continued to grow thanks to sustained external demand and despite subdued domestic demand; growth may slow later in 2011, but should still reach about 2.5%. Domestic consumption will improve only gradually over the coming quarters as fiscal consolidation continues and consumer sentiment remains low. Inflation fell below the 2.0% target again, after rising on higher food and energy prices.

Czech Republic GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices Consumer Prices (eop) - yoy Labour Market Population - m Unemployment Rate External Sector Import Growth EUR - yoy Export Growth EUR - yoy Trade Balance USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector Pribor (3 Month) % Public Sector Nominal Fiscal Bal - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts EUR/CZ Koruna, eop

Central Issue: The government has faced a series of corruption scandals; coalition talks are still taking place but the risk of early elections seems to have been averted so far. Parliament has started the approval process for the pension reform, but in a more diluted form than the original proposal. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Koruna remains stable despite a widening negative interest rate differential. With inflation below the target again, and with no visible domestic-demand pressures, we see the CNB remaining on hold until at least late Q3, and then following with gradual tightening, increasing the policy rate to 1.75% by 2012H2.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.1 -7.9 -4.2 -4.0 192.3

0.1 -3.1 1.5 2.2 193.9

0.3 1.1 0.3 2.5 226.8

2.5 4.0 2.4 2.7 244.7

1.0 1.0

1.5 2.0

2.2 2.3

2.4 2.2

10.4 8.2

10.4 8.9

10.4 8.8

10.4 8.6

-22.2 -22.3 4.3 -6.1 -3.2

26.2 23.9 2.9 -7.4 -3.8

16.5 16.1 3.0 -6.3 -2.8

9.8 9.4 2.7 -7.2 -3.0

1.6

1.2

-5.8

-4.7

-4.1

-3.3

26.1

25.2

23.9

23.6

2009

2010

2011

2012

-4.5 3.1 -14.3 -6.0 -5.2 -4.9 222

2.3 0.7 -3.2 -0.4 1.7 5.2 234

0.5 -0.4 -3.5 1.7 1.7 4.2 244

2.2 0.6 4.7 2.4 2.1 4.3 254

-17.0 1.1

2.2 2.2

4.7 2.9

4.2 2.0

-2.7 4.8

-2.2 6.0

-0.6 5.7

1.0 5.1

59 3.6

89 5.1

95 5.2

112 5.9

0.9

0.9

2.1

3.0

-45 -2.7

-84 -4.8

-76 -4.2

-60 -3.2

Magdalena Polan

Denmark Present Situation: The recovery in Denmark is progressing, with GDP growth registering 1.7% in 2010 and recent IP figures showing strength. However, the last two quarters have been weak (-0.2%qoq and -0.1% qoq). House price corrections and low productivity growth remain a drag on growth. Strong economic prospects in Germany and the rest of Scandinavia are likely to benefit Danish exports.

Denmark GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, EUR bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices (Harmonised) Labour Market Employment - yoy Unemployment Rate (Nat'l Def%) External Sector Current Account, Dk bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - DK bn Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: We expect GDP to grow slightly above consensus at 1.7% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012. The Danish peg to the Euro remains credible and the Central Bank seems well-equipped to maintain the peg. Fiscal balances remain robust and recent reforms to curb ageing -related expenses are encouraging. That said, the extent of control over municipality spending targets remains to be seen. Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen

Volume 9, Issue 3

31

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

France Present Situation: The recovery in the French economy continues, although less briskly than in Germany. Investment spending has picked up as well and consumption growth remains robust. Export growth, however, is still lucklustre and this is unlikely to change as the external environment moderates.

France GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, EUR bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices (Harmonised) GDP Deflator Labour Market Employment - yoy Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) External Sector Trade Balance, EUR bn Current Account, EUR bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: With the presidential elections coming up in May 2012, the public debate is now geared towards the forthcoming campaign. Current polls suggest that the governing majority does not start from a strong position. Recent regional elections also sent a warning signal regarding the potential (re-)emergence of the extreme right as a significant force in the debate. These developments will need to be watched closely. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: France remains a strong economy in the Euro-zone sovereign space, with a sound macroeconomic environment and resilient domestic demand.

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 -8.8 -1.4 2.9 2.7 -2.7 1.2 2.6 2.0 -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.7 -2.1 2.2 3.6 2.6 2633.0 2603.9 2911.3 3079.8 0.1 0.5

1.7 0.8

2.3 1.5

2.0 0.9

-1.2 9.1

0.2 9.3

1.0 8.5

1.6 7.4

-48.1 -39.2 -1.5

-60.4 -45.7 -1.8

-87.9 -56.0 -1.9

-70.2 -37.3 -1.2

0.7

0.9

1.9

2.8

78.1 -7.5

84.1 -7.7

88.5 -6.3

93.0 -6.0

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.1 2.9 -10.0 -2.1 -4.7 -3.3 3338

0.4 1.9 5.7 2.4 3.5 4.1 3363

1.8 2.0 8.3 2.5 3.3 4.5 3790

1.7 1.6 3.0 2.0 1.8 4.0 4064

0.2 1.4

1.2 0.6

2.5 1.1

2.2 2.2

0.0 8.2

0.5 7.7

1.0 7.0

0.1 7.0

164 188 5.6

175 188 5.6

208 164 4.3

247 167 4.1

0.7

0.9

1.9

2.8

73.5 -3.0

78.3 -3.5

78.4 -2.7

76.9 -1.6

Dirk Schumacher

Germany Germany GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices (Harmonised) GDP Deflator Labour Market Employment - yoy Unemployment Rate % External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Present Situation: The initially export-led recovery has now become more broad-based, with both private consumption and investment making positive contributions. The economy is now on a self-sustaining growth path, as evidenced by the continuing improvement in the labour market, with unemployment falling to its lowest level since unification. Central Issue: The external environment has been weakening and we expect export growth to be less buoyant going forward. Domestic demand growth, however, is now sufficiently strong to provide an offset for this. Only a signifcant weakening of global growth would pose a real threat to the German recovery at this point. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: German industry remains well-placed to benefit from a rebound in global industrial activity, in particular in the emerging world.

Dirk Schumacher

Volume 9, Issue 3

32

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Greece Present Situation: The economy grew in Q1 after six consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, this rebound will likely be short-lived as fiscal consolidation and private-sector deleveraging are weighing on the economy. Inflation remains elevated due to indirect tax hikes implemented over the past year, but should ease in the medium term on the back of growing spare capacity in the economy and tighter wage control.

Greece GDP Components % chg, yoy Real GDP Domestic Demand Exports of Goods/Services Imports of Goods/Services Nominal GDP Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices GDP Deflator Labour Market Unemployment Rate (%) External Sector Trade Balance (Level) EUR bn Trade Balance (% of GDP) Current Account (% of GDP) Current Account (Level) EUR bn Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance (Level) EUR bn Gen. Govt Bal (% of GDP) Gen. Govt Debt (% of GDP)

Central Issue: With the public sector set to be a drag on the economy in the coming years, the sustainability of any eventual recovery will hinge on the ability to restart growth in the private sector. Successful implementation of structural reforms will be critical, and will also support the price adjustments needed to boost export competitiveness. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The pace of structural reforms is likely to be a key driver of equity valuations, as well as the government's long-term debtrepayment prospects. We think a restructuring piloted by the official sector will eventually be needed in order to restore solvency.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.34 -4.35 -4.24 -7.33 -20.01 -0.74 -18.62 -13.83 -1.11 -2.03

-3.80 -5.90 6.50 -4.20 -2.30

0.20 -2.00 7.80 -4.00 1.20

1.35 1.26

4.64 2.43

2.90 1.50

1.00 1.00

9.47

12.58

14.50

15.00

-18.10 -15.09 -8.97 -5.90 -7.72 -6.57 -4.00 -2.60 -11.16 -10.23 -8.00 -6.80 -26.15 -23.48 -17.94 -15.43 -36.15 -21.94 -16.82 -13.84 -15.43 -9.56 -7.50 -6.10 127.21 139.40 155.13 159.73

Dirk Schumacher and Alexandre Kohlhas

Hungary Present Situation: Growth continues to accelerate thanks to strong exports; domestic demand remains subdued due to deleveraging and the heavy burden of FX debt service. The recovery should continue in 2012 as consumption and investments ultimately pick up but fiscal consolidation may dent growth. Inflation remains driven by changes in food, fuel and energy prices.

Hungary GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices - eop Consumer Prices Labour Market Population - m Unemployment Rate External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate - eop Public Sector Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP Total Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Nom Fiscal Bal - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts EUR/HUF, eop

Central Issue: The government is implementing an ambitious reform program aimed at reducing the structural deficit and increasing labour participation. The process has just started and the first savings may materialise late this year but the program's approval has marked a substantial turn towards a more conservative approach to fiscal policy. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Policy rates should stay on hold in 2011. The MPC may contemplate policy easing if inflation continues to fall and growth softens; however, financial stability considerations and the risk of HUF weakness preclude cuts for the time being.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-6.9 -7.8 -10.2 -6.7 130.7

-2.1 -5.6 -1.2 1.2 133.3

-0.4 -2.0 1.2 2.5 151.7

1.0 1.0 2.0 2.6 163.1

5.6 4.2

4.7 4.9

3.8 3.9

4.6 4.3

10.0 10.0

10.0 11.2

10.0 11.4

10.0 11.1

4.7 0.5 0.4

6.3 2.7 2.1

7.8 2.9 1.9

6.4 1.0 0.6

6.4

5.7

6.2

6.3

0.1 78.4 -5.8 -4.5

-0.1 79.6 -5.7 -4.3

6.5 73.5 3.8 2.5

1.0 73.1 -4.9 -3.0

273.1

277.6

271.0

271.0

Magdalena Polan Volume 9, Issue 3

33

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Italy Present Situation: While GDP growth in the first half of 2010 was robust, it has since been muted, registering only 0.1%qoq in Q1, after a similarly weak Q4. The PMI dipped below the threshold 50-mark in June.

Italy GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices (Harmonised) GDP Deflator Labour Market Employment - yoy Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: Italian sovereign bond spreads increased sharply in July. This has implied tighter financial conditions, posing significant downside risk to our growth forecasts. However, our leading indicator (EURO-LI) points to a pick-up in the second half of the year. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Italian budget was fast-tracked through parliament at record speed in July. The austerity measures adopted look encouraging, with plans to secure a balanced budget by 2014. The Italian government's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to decline in the coming years, although the current high level of bond yields may inhibit the pace of improvement in the public finances.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-1.8 1.0 -12.0 -4.0 -5.2 -3.1 2118

1.0 -0.6 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.9 2087

0.9 0.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 3.4 2328

1.1 -0.2 3.6 1.4 1.4 3.7 2489

0.8 2.3

1.6 0.6

2.8 2.1

2.0 2.3

-1.5 7.8

-0.7 8.4

0.3 8.1

0.5 8.0

-8 -42 -2.0

-40 -72 -3.5

-55 -94 -4.0

-59 -99 -4.0

116.0 -5.3

118.8 -5.0

119.2 -3.9

118.4 -3.3

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.2 115.9

7.0 145.9

6.5 173.9

6.5 202.4

7.3

7.1

9.5

7.5

16.0

16.2

16.5

16.7

-4.4 -3.8

4.3 3.0

8.7 5.0

4.2 2.1

-2.9

-2.4

-2.9

-1.8

Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen

Kazakhstan Present Situation: GDP rebounded by 7%yoy in 2010, owing partly to a rise in industrial and agricultural output in late 2009. Although banks' balance-sheet problems still weigh on the recovery in non-exporting sectors, especially in investment, thanks to high commodity prices and fiscal support, we expect growth of 6.5% in 2011and 2012.

Kazakhstan GDP Components, % chg, yoy Real GDP - yoy Nominal GDP (Level) USD bn Output and Prices Consumer Prices - yoy Labour Market Population - m External Sector Current Account (Level) USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector Nom State Budget Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: Despite inflation running above the NBK forecast of 6%-8% and a strong balance of payments surplus, the NBK resisted currency appreciation in 2010H1, sterilising its FX interventions with short-term paper, and has kept interest rates low, for fear of fuelling speculative capital inflows. We think this policy is sustainable in the medium term, unless inflation rises to double-digits or substantial credit growth (which we think is some way off) pushes up interest rates. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect a modest 4% appreciation to KZT/$ 140 in 6 months to contain inflation risks and promote the dedollarisation of the economy; the risks are currently skewed towards a smaller, rather than larger move. Anna Zadornova Volume 9, Issue 3

34

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Netherlands Present Situation: After growing strongly over the last couple of quarters, we expect some moderation in Dutch growth. High frequency data, however, suggest that the underlying momentum has remained robust so far.

Netherlands GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices (Harmonised) GDP Deflator Labour Market Employment - yoy Unemployment Rate (ILO,%) External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: Unlike its peers in the EMU core, where the recession was mostly investment-led, the Netherlands suffered a deep contraction in private consumption. A recovery in consumer spending will be crucial in returning the economy to pre-crisis levels, but progress on this front is coming slowly: although the unemployment rate has begun to edge lower, real wage growth remains negative, and households (which carry one of the highest debt burdens in the Euro-zone) still have considerable deleveraging ahead of them. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: As one of the most open economies in the Euro-zone, the Netherlands is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing global recovery.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.6 4.8 -10.2 -3.1 -3.5 -3.9 797

0.4 1.0 -4.4 0.9 1.6 3.0 793

0.5 0.9 8.0 1.9 2.3 4.2 892

1.9 1.2 2.1 1.7 2.1 4.2 958

1.0 -0.4

0.9 1.3

2.3 1.8

1.7 2.0

-1.0 3.7

-0.6 4.5

0.6 4.1

1.5 3.8

59 39 4.9

68 57 7.2

77 83 9.3

80 86 9.0

0.7

0.9

1.9

2.8

60.8 -5.4

65.4 -6.5

66.8 -4.7

67.9 -4.0

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.2 4.7 -6.9 -11.1 -1.6 -1.6

3.6 2.2 -7.4 -3.1 0.3 2.1

2.7 0.6 10.1 10.1 1.6 2.9

3.8 1.4 5.8 6.0 2.7 3.5

-6.4 2.6

2.8 1.4

4.9 1.1

6.5 2.1

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.4

48.8 48.2 13.4

53.1 53.6 12.9

59.8 58.0 11.2

68.0 65.9 11.4

2.2 4.1

2.6 3.7

3.2 4.3

4.2 4.8

Dirk Schumacher

Norway Present Situation: The Norwegian recovery is on a firm footing, and our current business cycle indicator points to robust GDP growth. Following the relatively mild contraction in output through 2009 and a firm recovery in 2010, capacity utilisation has tightened.

Norway GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Total Fixed Investment - Mainland Investment Total GDP Mainland GDP Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production CPI-ATE Labour Market, % Unemployment Rate Overseas Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector, % 3 Month Interest Rate 10 Year Govt. Bond Yield

Central Issue: We expect Norwegian momentum to continue and (mainland) GDP growth to register around +0.9%-1.0%qoq in Q2. We expect growth of 2.9% and 3.5% in 2011 and 2012, respectively. CPI-ATE inflation remains low, but underlying inflation is likely to trend higher towards 2% by 2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect Norges Bank to hike by a further 50bp in 2011, having already hiked 25bp in May, leaving the policy rate at 2.75% by end-2011. We expect the next hike to occur in August, although this decision is likely to be data-driven. Low underlying inflation is the main risk to this view.

Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen

Volume 9, Issue 3

35

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Poland Present Situation: The economy has grown strongly, supported by domestic demand, and with production benefiting from solid exports. Private investments are recovering, but plans to cut public investments are likely to dent growth in 2012. Inflation accelerated following supply-side shocks; it should start falling soon but stay above the target through 2012.

Poland GDP Components, % chg yoy Private Consumption Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP , PLN bn Output and Prices, % chg yoy Consumer Prices - eop Consumer Prices External Sector Import Growth - yoy Export Growth - yoy Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate - eop Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP Nom Fiscal Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: Parliamentary elections are scheduled for early October. The current coalition leader, the Civic Platform, is likely to form a new government, preserving policy continuity. We do not expect the new government to pursue substantial fiscal reforms, even with no other elections until late 2014. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Despite the MPC's resolve to remain on hold for the moment, after a cumulative 100bp in hikes, we expect additional tigthening, with the policy rate reaching 5.0% by 2012Q1, from the current 4.50%.

Total Gross Pub Sect Debt - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/PLN, eop

2009

2010

2011

2012

2.4 -0.6 1.6 432.7

3.0 4.3 3.8 475.3

3.7 4.5 4.3 583.4

4.2 4.5 4.3 659.7

3.5 3.5

3.1 2.6

4.1 4.5

2.9 3.3

-24.5 -16.0 -4.3 -9.5 -2.2

22.6 20.5 -8.0 -16.1 -3.4

11.9 12.1 -9.6 -23.0 -3.9

11.5 11.1 -11.9 -28.3 -4.3

4.2

3.9

5.2

5.3

-9.8 -4.5 -7.3

-12.4 -5.2 -7.9

-10.6 -2.9 -5.5

-7.6 -1.0 -3.5

50.9

55.1

55.2

55.0

2.8

3.0

2.6

2.5

2009

2010

2011

2012

Magdalena Polan

Russia Present Situation: After a fall of -7.9% in 2009, the economy grew a subdued 4% in 2010. We expect it to accelerate to +5.3% in 2011, driven mainly by privatesector investment. The main downside risks are a sharp fall in oil prices or political uncertainty reducing investment more than we currently estimate.

Russia GDP Components, % chg yoy Real GDP Domestic Demand Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg yoy Consumer Prices - eop Consumer Prices External Sector Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) Nominal Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/RUB, eop Debt Sector Tot Gross Pub Sect Debt-% of GDP

Central Issue: Headline inflation should remain close to 9.5% until mid-year, before falling to 7.3% in December on base effects in food inflation. However, the remaining output gap is small and, with growth accelerating, we think the CBR will need to tighten monetary conditions significantly in 2011H2 to avoid the economy overheating in 2012. We expect 100bp (50bp) of hikes to the deposit (repo) rate by year-end.

-7.9 4.0 5.3 5.6 -6.2 3.2 6.3 7.4 1235.5 1492.4 1897.7 2231.1 8.8 11.7

8.8 6.8

7.3 8.7

6.2 6.4

49.5 4.0

70.6 4.7

83.7 4.3

68.2 2.8

-5.4 -5.9

-3.5 -4.0

0.4 -0.1

0.5 0.0

30.2

30.5

26.0

24.8

7.0

7.7

8.4

9.7

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Strengthening domestic demand will likely reduce outflows of Russian capital. With a widening rate differential to developed economies, the Ruble should strengthen against both the basket and the USD. Our Strategists expect Russian equities to outperform, with a preference for domestic sectors. Clemens Grafe Volume 9, Issue 3

36

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Spain Present Situation: The economy is experiencing a subdued recovery. Weak growth is likely to continue for the remainder of the year. The fiscal consolidation continues on track but presents a drag on growth in the short term. Slack in the labour market generates a headwind for consumer spending. The main support for growth comes from exports and depends on continued progress in the global recovery.

Spain GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, USD bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices (Harmonised) GDP Deflator Labour Market Employment - yoy External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: The outlook for Spain is shaped by adjustment of its twin deficits, implied by its fiscal and current account positions. The fiscal adjustment proceeds as planned. The C/A deficit has also narrowed. The difference between Spanish and Euro-zone inflation has narrowed. Gains in competitiveness are also supported by productivity gains and the reallocation of labour away from the construction sector, although it is unclear how much of that will persist. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Containing sovereign spreads depends on delivering the fiscal adjustment alongside nominal income growth. It also depends on policy at the level of the Euro-zone underpinning confidence.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-4.3 1.2 0.1 0.6 3.2 -0.7 0.5 0.2 -16.0 -7.6 -4.3 0.5 -5.9 -1.1 -0.8 0.5 -3.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9 -3.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 1469.0 1433.0 1590.5 1692.8 -0.2 0.6

2.0 1.0

3.0 1.7

1.6 1.3

-6.7

-2.3

-1.0

0.5

-69.9 -75.9 -5.2

-70.5 -65.3 -4.6

-59.3 -48.4 -3.0

-61.3 -47.3 -2.8

0.7

0.9

1.9

2.8

53.3 -11.1

60.1 -9.2

65.9 -6.8

70.2 -5.6

Andrew Benito

Sweden Present Situation: GDP growth registered an impressive 5.7% in 2010. We expect growth to moderate this year and next, but remain well above trend at 4.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Our above-consensus view on growth in Sweden is driven by our expectation of robust growth in Sweden's trading partners, as well as Sweden's high leverage to rebounding global investment demand.

Sweden GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Final Domestic Demand Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, Swkr bn Output and Prices, % chg yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment (Nt'l Def %) Population - m External Sector Trade Balance, Swkr bn Current Account, Swkr bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Balance - Swkr bn Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: Based on current survey evidence, we expect Q2 GDP growth to come in at around +0.8%0.9%qoq, and we expect an upward revision to the Q1 first release. Headline inflation is likely to remain above the 2% inflation target. We expect underlying inflationary pressure to build as the output gap is now likely to have narrowed. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The Riksbank has raised rates at all meetings since July 2010, from 0.25% to 2.00% currently. We are more hawkish than current market pricing, and expect rates to reach 2.75% by end-2011, although the risks are skewed to the downside.

2010

2011

2012

-0.4 4.9 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 -15.3 5.9 7.7 6.6 -4.6 5.6 4.3 2.6 -5.3 5.4 4.6 3.1 -3.0 3.5 2.9 2.6 -3.6 6.9 6.3 4.9 3089.2 3301.1 3510.3 3683.5 -19.3 -0.3

8.7 1.3

10.6 3.0

6.6 3.1

8.3 9.3

8.4 9.4

7.5 9.4

6.8 9.5

6.6 217.6 7.0

5.9 209.2 6.3

6.0 223.5 6.4

5.9 239.9 6.5

0.5

2.0

3.3

4.2

41.9 -36.0 -1.2

39.6 -13.6 -0.4

36.7 20.6 0.6

33.3 61.7 1.7

*Calendar adjusted.

Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen and Adrian Paul

Volume 9, Issue 3

2009

37

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Switzerland Present Situation: After a strong recovery in the second half of 2010, GDP growth slowed to +0.3%qoq in Q1. Surveys of business sentiment remain consistent with robust underlying growth momentum, and there remains little sign - both on official and survey data - that the record strength of the CHF is thwarting the expansion of the Swiss economy so far.

Switzerland GDP Components, % chg yoy Consumers Expenditure Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, Swfr bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices GDP Deflator Labour Market Unemployment Rate (Nat Def., %) External Sector Trade Balance, USD bn Current Account, USD bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector 3 Month Interest Rate % Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Gen. Govt Balance USD bn Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: The trade-weighted Swiss Franc has appreciated by 20% in the past 12 months, while real GDP has already surpassed its pre-crisis peak. Faced with this dilemma, the SNB has remained resolutely dovish, and has kept the policy rate at record lows throughout. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Although the output gap has closed, CPI inflation remains muted. The recent escalation of uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis is likely to mean the SNB retrenches, wary of prompting further CHF appreciation. We expect the first rate hike in September, but the risks are now skewed predominantly towards a later move.

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.4 1.6 -4.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.6 494.5

1.7 0.8 3.0 0.9 2.8 2.1 530.9

1.2 1.1 6.9 0.3 2.1 2.7 623.1

2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.1 3.9 657.8

-0.5 0.3

0.7 0.1

0.6 -0.2

1.8 1.8

3.7

3.9

3.0

2.2

16.8 41.3 11.5

22.2 64.6 14.6

31.7 100.5 16.1

31.9 103.6 15.8

0.3

0.3

0.8

2.8

20.7 1.1 0.2

20.6 -2.2 -0.4

20.5 -1.9 -0.3

19.9 -1.3 -0.2

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.3 -19.1 -5.1 -4.8 614.4

6.6 29.9 10.6 8.9 735.7

10.6 22.1 12.2 7.5 796.2

3.0 3.8 2.6 3.5 949.7

6.5 6.3

6.4 8.6

8.2 6.5

6.6 7.7

-24.9 -13.5 -2.1

-56.4 -46.7 -6.5

-76.4 -67.7 -8.5

-80.2 -66.4 -7.0

-5.5

-3.6

-1.0

-2.0

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.5

Dirk Schumacher and Adrian Paul

Turkey Present Situation: Turkey has rebounded strongly from recession. However, excessively loose domestic financial conditions have led to acute external imbalances. We see continued robust growth in 2011, followed by sequential moderation and base effects taking annual growth lower in 2012.

Turkey GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$ bn Output and Prices Consumer Prices - end period Consumer Prices - yoy External Sector Trade Balance, US$ bn Current Account, US$ bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector Nom Fiscal Bal incl Privtn, % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/TRY

Central Issue: Despite recent policy tightening, financial conditions remain loose, and the current account deficit is still significant. Some rebalancing will take place later in the year, but further policy tightening may still be necessary. We expect the CA deficit to narrow to 7.0% in 2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: At the next MPC meeting, we expect no hikes in the policy rate or reserve requirements. The CBRT is likely to adopt a more dovish stance, monitoring the ongoing global and domestic soft patch and risks from the Euro-zone fiscal crisis. We continue to forecast 100bp of cumulative rate hikes over 2011H2; however, with growth losing momentum, there now appears to be a greater downside risk to our forecast. We nonetheless remain cautious on the TRY. Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds Volume 9, Issue 3

38

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Ukraine Present Situation: A rebound in private consumption drove 5.3%yoy growth in 2011Q1, but in H2 the recovery continues to face headwinds from the global slowdown, high energy prices and a weak financial system. We expect +4.3% growth in 2011, picking up to 5% in 2012. Inflation re-accelerated to 11.9% in June, and although food inflation is likely to fall after the harvest, we expect CPI to decline only to 10% by yearend.

Ukraine GDP Components, % chg yoy Real GDP - yoy Nominal GDP, US$ bn Investment Growth Output and Prices, % chg yoy Industrial Production, cumulative Consumer Prices - eop Consumer Prices External Sector Foreign Reserves incl Gold, eop Current Account, US$ bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector

Central Issue: The 2010 $16bn IMF program stalled due to slow progress on reforms: the pension reform was passed, albeit with delays, but the government is trying to avoid increasing subsidised household energy tariffs given rising inflation. As October 2012 parliamentary elections approach, risks of fiscal slippage and weakening in the authorities' commitment to further reforms will likely grow.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-14.8 116.7 -46.2

4.2 139.7 4.9

4.3 158.8 14.3

5.0 180.3 25.9

-20.5 12.3 16.0

10.7 9.1 9.4

6.0 10.0 9.5

– 8.0 8.7

26.5 -1.7 -1.5

34.6 -2.9 -2.1

35.0 -6.6 -4.2

– -11.7 -6.5

-8.7

-6.8

-3.5

-2.5

UK 2009 2010 GDP Components % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure -3.2 0.7 Government Consumption 1.0 1.0 Fixed Investment -15.3 3.6 Domestic Demand -5.5 2.7 Real GDP -4.9 1.4 Nominal GDP -3.5 4.3 % change on previous quarter, not annualised RPI All Items -0.5 4.6 Output and Prices % chg, yoy Industrial Production -10.0 2.1 CPI 2.2 3.3 GDP Deflator 1.4 2.9 Core CPI -0.1 5.4 Labour Market Employment - yoy -1.4 -1.2 Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.9 External Sector Trade Balance USD bn -121.0 -146.5 Current Account - % of GDP -1.7 -3.2 Financial Sector M4 - yoy 11.5 10.6 3 Month Interest Rate % 0.6 0.7 Public Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP 52.2 57.7 Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP -8.2 -9.4

2011

2012

-0.2 0.7 3.7 0.4 1.9 6.2

0.8 -0.2 9.6 1.9 2.6 5.6

5.2

3.9

1.7 4.2 4.2 3.0

2.9 2.2 2.9 1.9

0.6 7.7

0.8 7.6

-125.7 -1.5

-109.5 -0.6

9.6 1.1

8.7 2.3

60.4 -8.0

61.9 -5.8

Nom State Fiscal Cons Bal (% of GDP)

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The government is likely to tap external markets again in the autumn, conditions permitting, seeking $1-2bn to pre-fund for 2012 and to repay a $600mn Eurobond maturing in December. Anna Zadornova

United Kingdom Present Situation: Official data imply an anaemic recovery. After a 0.5%qoq contraction in 2010Q4 and an offsetting rebound in 2011Q1, GDP growth looks to have slowed in 2011Q2. An acceleration in government spending cuts will likely dampen growth further in the near term, and a slowdown in global demand remains a risk, but with accommodative monetary conditions, we expect a pick-up in 2011H2. Central Issue: With inflation at more than twice the MPC's target, and set to rise further, there remains a range of views on the committee regarding the appropriate balance between high spot inflation and softening output data. Two members continue to advocate rate hikes; the number moving towards more QE has increased. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We forecast a 25bp hike in Bank Rate in Q4, although the risks are now almost exclusively skewed towards a later move. Our above-consensus GDP forecast and belowconsensus inflation forecast are more supportive of risky assets (e.g., equities) than it is hawkish on UK fixed income. Kevin Daly and Adrian Paul Volume 9, Issue 3

39

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Country Reports – Africa and the Middle East Egypt Present Situation: The recent political crisis has had a large, adverse impact on the Egyptian economy. Real GDP declined by 7.1%qoq (sa, non-annualised) in 2011Q1. This has led to a substantial deterioration in fiscal balances and broader balance of payments (BoP) pressures. However, several countries and international organisations have extended loans on favourable terms over recent months, helping to alleviate these pressures. Following revisions to the FY2011/12 budget (with US$4bn cut from planned expenditures), the authorities decided not to pursue an IMF stand-by arrangement.

Egypt GDP Components, % chg, yoy Nominal GDP, US$bn Real GDP Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices Labour Market Population m

2009

2010

2011

2012

188.8 4.7

228.5 5.2

280.6 1.0

280.6 3.0

9.9

10.1

11.5

12.0

83.5

84.5

86.2

87.9

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.8 5.9

4.7 5.8

4.5 6.6

3.5 6.2

3.3 -6.0

2.7 8.0

3.8 3.4

2.7 3.4

30.0 7.1 3.6

– 6.4 2.9

– 2.6 1.0

– 1.0 0.5

71.8 -4.4 1.0

66.6 -3.2 1.7

60.6 -3.0 1.5

54.9 -2.5 2.0

Central Issue: Uncertainty remains around the implementation of the current budget, both in terms of spending and revenue collection. The elections (postponed to November 2011) will be a critical development - particularly if they result in a stable, viable government. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Implementation risks for the budget remain an issue, given the structural nature of Egypt's previous fiscal imbalances and political economy constraints (in particular, the approach of raising public wages and maintaining food and energy subsidies). Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds

Israel Present Situation: Israel has fared well in the global economic downturn, thanks to the timely response of the BoI and strong macro fundamentals. We expect abovetrend growth of 4.5% in 2011 and growth to subsequently moderate to around trend, at 3.5%, in 2012.

Israel GDP Components, % chg yoy Real GDP Nominal GDP Output and Prices, % chg yoy Consumer Prices Industrial Production External Sector International Reserves Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Public Sector Publc Sector Debt - % GDP Nominal Fiscal Bal - % of GDP) Primary Fiscal Bal - % of GDP

Central Issue: The BoI stepped up the pace and scale of rate hikes over 2011H1, as inflation and inflation expectations breached the upper 3% boundary of the target range. However, with inflation set to moderate and global growth slowing, we expect the BoI to adopt a more cautious 'wait and see' approach, hiking rates by only a moderate 50bp to end-2011. Over 2012 we expect policy normalisation to continue, with 125bp of cumulative hikes taking the policy rate to 5.0% by end2012. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our $/ILS forecast now stands at 3.40, 3.35 and 3.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 3.50, 3.37 and 3.30 previously), reflecting the slower pace of tightening in the short run and a narrower current account surplus. Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds Volume 9, Issue 3

40

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nigeria Present Situation: The Nigerian economy grew strongly, at around 7.8%, in 2010, thanks to the impetus provided by rising commodity prices and robust domestic demand growth. In 2011 and 2012, the economy is likely to continue to perform well in response to rising (forecast) commodity prices and steady domestic demand growth. We expect growth of around 7.0% in 2011 and 7.5% in 2012.

Nigeria Activity and Prices % chg yoy Real GDP

2009

2010

2011

2012

7.0

7.8

7.0

7.5

Consumer Prices eop

12.5

13.7

15.0

15.0

South Africa GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$ bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices - eop CPIX Inflation External Sector Trade Balance, US$ bn Current Account, US$ bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector Broad Money - M3 - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate - eop Public Sector Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) Nominal Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/ZAR, eop

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.0 -2.0 -1.7 287.9

4.4 4.5 2.9 364.7

4.8 5.1 3.5 423.3

4.0 4.0 4.1 488.4

6.3 7.1

3.5 4.3

6.4 4.9

6.1 6.0

0.7 -11.2 -3.9

3.9 -10.1 -2.8

0.8 -16.7 -4.0

-3.3 -21.8 -4.5

5.7 7.1

4.3 5.5

–

–

6.2

6.2

-3.7 -6.0

-2.1 -4.3

-3.2 -5.5

-2.6 -4.9

8.4

7.3

6.9

6.5

27.3 31.3

24.4 32.1

24.9 37.1

26.1 41.0

Central Issue: Recently launched energy sector reforms will be a key issue in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Commodities team expects oil prices to rise further, towards $120/bbl by end-2011 and $140/bbl by end2012. Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds

South Africa Present Situation: The post-crisis recovery has been relatively slow and volatile, owing to an extended 2010Q2-Q3 soft patch. Our global and domestic leading indicators (and production data) are showing a significant loss of momentum over 2011Q2. With widespread industrial action over the past few weeks, growth may underperform our 3.5%yoy forecast before making a more tangible recovery in 2012. Central Issue: Headline has been creeping up only gradually as the output gap and labour market slack continue to provide a significant disinflationary buffer, keeping core inflationary pressures in check. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the SARB to remain on hold at 5.5% for the majority of 2011 and foresee only 50bp of hikes in 2011Q4, followed by a cumulative 200bp of hikes in 2012, bringing the policy rate to 8.0% by end-2012. However, risks to this forecast are now probably tilted towards the downside, with a more a substantial loss in growth momentum inducing the SARB to remain on hold for longer.

Debt Sector Total External Debt (% of GDP) Tot Gross Pub Sect Debt-% of GDP

Ahmet Akarli and Michael Hinds Volume 9, Issue 3

41

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Country Reports – Asia Australia Present Situation: Natural disasters weighed on growth early in 2011, and tight financial conditions, fiscal drag and the elevated AUD have restrained the recovery since then. We expect growth of just +2.0% in 2011, before a mining-investment-led acceleration to +4.0% in 2012.

Australia GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Government Consumption Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Average Earnings Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate, % Population - m External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector Cash Rate , % 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gen. Govt Bal - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts A$/US$, eop

Central Issue: The outlook for policy remains dependent on the RBA's estimates on the extent of spare capacity within the economy and on when the economy will come up against supply constraints as private demand reaccelerates from 2011H2. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Given fragile sentiment, patchy growth, restrictive policy settings and an uncertain global environment, we see little case for a near-term rate hike. We believe that the local data flow will not justify a further tightening in policy (+25bp) until February 2012. For the AUD, there are significant short-term risks in both directions, but a deterioration in the trade accounts through 2012H2 should weigh on the AUD towards the end of 2012.

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 1.6 3.4 3.1 1.9 -3.2 5.4 6.3 8.8 -0.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.0 990.0 1234.4 1495.7 1562.5 -1.6 4.2 1.8

4.5 5.1 2.8

1.4 4.2 3.6

3.4 4.5 3.2

5.6 22.0

5.2 22.4

4.9 22.6

4.5 22.8

-3.1 -42.0 -4.2

15.4 -31.7 -2.6

19.7 -42.1 -2.8

-12.0 -76.0 -4.9

3.8 4.2

4.8 5.0

4.8 5.0

5.0 5.2

-3.3

-3.7

-1.9

-0.3

0.79

0.92

1.05

1.03

Economist: Tim Toohey tim.toohey@gs.com.au Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty Ltd

Tim Toohey and David Colosimo

(ABN 21 006 797 897) All rights reserved.

China Present Situation: June IP growth rebounded strongly to 15.1%yoy, up from 13.3%yoy in May. On the inflation front, June CPI inflation rose to 6.4%yoy, up from 5.5%yoy in May. CPI inflation is likely to remain elevated in July because of the high base at the start of July, but high frequency data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that food prices have fallen rapidly on a yoy basis since the first week of July.

China GDP Components, % chg, yoy Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices Labour Market Population - m External Sector

Central Issue: Stronger-than-expected activity growth tends to alleviate policymakers' concerns about the growth slowdown. But we still expect policy to become less restrictive (although not as loose as in 2010H2) once CPI inflation starts on a downward trend.

Gross International Reserves USD bn (level) Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector, % chg, yoy Broad Money Public Sector Fiscal Balance - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/CNY, eop

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our strategists are still constructive on Chinese equity markets and expect performance to year-end to be driven largely by earnings growth. However, the market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as inflation data may continue to cause concern in the coming months and policy loosening may not materialise.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-17.1 30.3 18.0 18.5 -14.5 31.3 17.8 19.0 14.1 9.8 8.7 9.0 9.2 10.3 9.4 9.2 4990.0 5891.7 7108.3 8483.4 11.4 -0.7

15.3 3.3

14.6 4.7

14.8 3.0

1334.7 1339.7 1347.6 1354.2

2399.2 2847.3 3230.1 3648.8 198.2 184.5 182.1 – 4.0 3.1 – 2.6 297.1 306.2 337.3 363.6 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.3 27.6

19.7

16.0

16.0

-2.2

-1.6

-1.3

-1.0

6.8

6.6

6.3

5.9

Yu Song Volume 9, Issue 3

42

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Hong Kong Present Situation: 2011Q1 GDP expanded by 7.2%yoy, after growing 6.4%yoy in 2010Q4. On a sequential basis, GDP growth accelerated to 11.7%qoq annualised (ann), after growing 6.1%qoq ann in 2010Q4. Annual GDP growth in 2010 was revised up to 7.0%yoy from 6.8%yoy.

Hong Kong GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate, % Population - m External Sector Gross International Reserves Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M2 Growth Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/HK$, eop

Central Issue: The government revised up its 2011 annual GDP growth forecast range to 5%-6%yoy, from 4%-5%yoy in February. We believe the accommodative financial conditions, continuous improvements in the labour market and steady growth in China should continue to support growth. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The potential for Hong Kong to develop into a regional and global financial hub, supported by the offshore RMB business and more listings of international companies in Hong Kong, could support growth. Our Strategists' valuations look 'fair' on a P/E basis but undemanding from a P/B standpoint. Our DDM suggests that current prices have not fully factored in the low rate environment.

Enoch Fung and Shirla Sum

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.6 -3.9 -10.1 -9.0 0.7 -2.7 209.3

5.8 8.1 16.8 17.3 7.0 7.0 225.0

4.9 3.6 11.9 11.3 3.2 5.2 246.8

4.4 5.2 11.9 11.8 4.3 5.2 272.4

0.6

2.4

5.3

5.0

5.2 7.0

4.4 7.1

3.2 7.2

3.2 7.2

255.8 -28.9 -13.8 18.0 8.6

268.7 -43.1 -19.2 14.8 6.6

293.4 -42.7 -17.3 18.3 7.4

323.4 -42.1 -15.4 23.6 8.7

10.7 99.2 0.1

7.8 2.9 0.3

5.0 10.0 0.5

5.0 10.0 0.5

3.3 1.6

-6.6 -2.8

0.6 0.3

4.0 1.5

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

2009

2010

2011

2012

India Present Situation: The Industrial Production Index grew 5.6%yoy in May, below the 5.8%yoy growth registered in April. June WPI inflation came in at 9.4%yoy, above May's 9.1%yoy.

India GDP Components, % chg yoy Real GDP Nominal GDP Nominal GDP US$ bn Domestic Demand Output and Prices, % chg yoy Industrial Production Wholesale Prices External Sector

Central Issue: We forecast FY2012 GDP growth of 7.5% on the basis of a slowdown in investment demand. On the inflation front, we expect the July print to be in double digits, and headline inflation to peak in September. Our WPI inflation forecast for FY2012 is at 8.6%yoy. Meanwhile, we continue to expect the RBI to hike policy rates by 25bp at its July 26 meeting, and one more hike beyond that in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Although India's medium-term growth prospects remain promising, its near-term macro backdrop has deteriorated: the fiscal deficit may stay at a high level in FY2012 and inflation could remain elevated over the year.

8.0 8.5 7.5 7.8 14.6 25.2 17.9 10.7 1383.1 1731.0 2041.4 2260.6 10.6 8.4 6.6 8.1 5.3 3.8

8.2 9.6

7.3 8.6

7.3 5.1

Gross International Reserves incl Gol 279.1 Trade Balance, US$ bn -117.3 Trade Balance - % of GDP -8.5 Current Account, US$ bn -38.7 Current Account - % of GDP -2.8 Financial Sector, % chg yoy Broad Money 17.5 3 Month Interest Rate % 4.4 Public Sector Cen. Govt Balance, US$ bn -120.3 Fiscal Balance % of GDP -8.7 Exchange Rate INR/US$ 45.1

282.9 -99.1 -5.7 -44.6 -2.6

291.9 -169.3 -8.3 -68.2 -3.3

300.4 -212.7 -9.4 -86.5 -3.8

16.0 7.3

17.1 8.7

17.0 8.2

-131.6 -7.6 44.7

-165.4 -8.1 46.2

-169.5 -7.5 47.0

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March).

Tushar Poddar Volume 9, Issue 3

43

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Indonesia Present Situation: We maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.2% for both 2011and 2012. June headline inflation rose 5.5%yoy, after 6% in May. We continue to expect core inflation to creep up (albeit slowly), and headline inflation to hover around the top end of the BI's target range of 4%-6% in 2011H2.

Indonesia GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M2 - yoy Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector, % GDP Cent Govt Budget Balance Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/IDR, eop

Central Issue: The BI kept the benchmark Bank Indonesia rate unchanged at 6.75% in June. We continue to expect it to hike the policy rate by another 50bp in the remainder of this year, taking the policy rate to 7.25% by end-2011. We then expect another 75bp in hikes in 2012, taking the policy rate to 8.00%. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Macro growth potential remains intact, but our Strategists expect more challenging equity market conditions in 2011H2, as room for upside earnings surprises looks limited and further significant re-rating potential seems unlikely.

2009

2010

2011

2012

4.9 3.3 5.2 4.6 541.2

4.6 8.5 5.7 6.1 707.5

5.3 8.5 6.1 6.2 844.5

6.0 8.6 6.6 6.2 981.6

4.8

5.1

6.3

6.4

36.5 6.7 10.6 2.0

42.9 6.1 5.7 0.8

13.8 1.6 2.5 0.3

9.7 1.0 6.1 0.6

13.0 16.7 7.1

15.4 28.9 6.6

18.0 22.0 7.6

20.3 24.0 8.4

-1.6

-2.0

-2.3

-2.1

9400.0 8991.0 8450.0 8350.0

Enoch Fung

Malaysia Malaysia GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M3 Growth (%) Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/MYR, eop

Present Situation: Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3%yoy in May, up from 3.2% in April. On a sequential basis, CPI inflation rose 0.3%mom from 0.2%mom. The rise in the CPI was driven by increases in the major components of Food and Transport. Central Issue: We continue to expect rising inflationary pressures in the coming months, as the output gap turns firmly positive in 2011H2. Our CPI inflation forecast for the year is 3.7%, above the upper end of the Central Bank's 2.5%-3.5% forecast range for the year. We continue to expect the BNM to hike rates by 25bp, taking the OPR to 3.25%, at its next meeting on July 7. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Earnings growth and contribution to growth are primarily driven by domestic demand sectors, ranging from staples and plantation stocks to gaming and hotel operators.

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.7 -5.6 -2.4 -1.6 193.3

6.5 9.8 12.4 7.2 237.5

6.7 7.9 6.9 5.4 283.4

5.5 10.0 7.0 5.6 330.4

-7.7 0.6

7.5 1.7

4.9 3.7

6.1 3.7

33.7 17.4 31.9 16.5

34.2 14.4 27.3 11.5

36.9 13.0 31.5 11.1

38.7 11.7 35.6 10.8

9.2 -20.0 2.2

7.0 11.8 3.0

10.0 14.0 3.8

9.0 10.4 3.8

-6.8

-4.7

-5.3

-5.1

3.42

3.08

2.85

2.90

Mark Tan

Volume 9, Issue 3

44

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

New Zealand Present Situation: Real GDP rose 0.8%qoq in Q1, which is a remarkable result considering the disruption caused by a major earthquake on February 22. Strong commodity prices and a stabilisation in house prices should allow for a slower pace of deleveraging than experienced over 2010, resulting in better growth outcomes going forward. An unwarranted tightening in financial conditions poses the biggest downside risk to the outlook.

New Zealand GDP Components, % chg, yoy Private Consumption Government Consumption Fixed Investment Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices Labour Market Population - m Unemployment Rate - % External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector Cash Rate, % 90 Day Bank Rate, % Exchange Rate Forecasts NZ$/US$, eop

Central Issue: Is the burgeoning domestic recovery becoming a self-sustaining one? We believe it is, although we think it requires further confirmation before a tightening in monetary policy is warranted. This is particularly the case given the strength in the NZ$ and the level of global uncertainty. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: While we believe the NZ$ is overvalued, we see a lack of triggers in the near term to significantly close the valuation gap. We believe the RBNZ can hold off tightening monetary policy until early 2012, although this is dependent on inflation outcomes remaining relatively benign.

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.9 0.6 -11.9 1.9 -14.9 -3.4 -2.0 135.5

2.3 2.7 3.3 2.8 9.9 2.6 1.7 151.3

1.5 3.0 6.0 3.0 7.2 2.8 2.5 165.0

1.9 1.5 14.5 2.3 4.3 4.8 3.9 172.1

2.1

2.3

4.6

3.1

4.4 7.0

4.4 6.7

4.4 6.5

4.5 5.7

1.5 -3.2 -2.8

2.1 -5.6 -4.0

3.0 -5.4 -3.5

1.1 -7.1 -4.3

2.5 2.8

3.0 3.2

2.5 2.7

3.8 4.1

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

Economist: Philip Borkin philip.borkin@gs.co.nz Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs & Partners New Zealand Ltd All rights reserved.

Philip Borkin

Philippines Present Situation: Real GDP growth slowed to 4.9%yoy in 2011Q1 from 6.1%yoy in 2010Q4. On the inflation front, June headline CPI inflation picked up to 4.6%yoy from 4.5%yoy in May. Food inflation decelerated to 4.0%yoy in June, from 4.2%yoy in May, while core inflation continued to pick up, to 4.0%yoy, compared with 3.7%yoy in May.

Philippines GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M2 Growth % Monetary Base - yoy Net International Reserves 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Budget Deficit % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/PHP, eop

Central Issue: We expect CPI inflation to average 5% this year. We also expect core inflation to continue to rise over the next two years on the back of domestic demand side pressure from the closing of the output gap. Meanwhile, we forecast another 50bp in hikes for the rest of this year. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists' valuations look slightly expensive relative to past ranges, with major valuation metrics all trading above their respective historical means.

Shirla Sum

Volume 9, Issue 3

45

2009

2010

2011

2012

4.1 -0.4 2.8 1.1 161.2

3.4 19.5 8.3 7.6 199.6

5.4 8.9 6.8 5.2 237.6

5.9 5.3 5.7 5.5 260.7

-11.9 3.2

23.2 3.8

7.4 5.0

11.0 5.0

-4.7 -2.9 9.4 5.8

-3.4 -1.7 8.5 4.2

-5.3 -2.2 8.2 3.5

-6.4 -2.5 9.1 3.5

7.7 9.0 44.2 3.9

10.7 7.0 62.4 0.8

15.0 12.0 73.4 4.0

16.7 14.3 83.0 5.0

-3.9

-3.5

-4.0

-2.5

46.4

43.9

40.8

40.3

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Singapore Present Situation: 2011Q2 advanced GDP slowed to 0.5%yoy from an upwardly revised 9.3%yoy in 2011Q1. This was below our expectations of 2.8%yoy and the consensus expectation of 1%yoy. Sequentially, growth for the second quarter dipped to -7.8%qoq, seasonallyadjusted and annualised (qoq sa ann) versus the Bloomberg consensus of 0%qoq sa ann and 27.2%qoq sa ann previously.

Singapore GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate, % External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M3 - yoy Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Fiscal Balance - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/SGD, eop

Central Issue: We expect a rebound in 2011H2, partially aided by the easing of the Japan supply-chain disruptions. Our current full-year 2011 GDP growth forecast stands at 5.5%, below the consensus expectation of 6.0% compiled by Consensus Economics and at the lower end of the government's 5%-7% forecast range for the year. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Singapore is our Strategists' preferred market in South Asia given its robust macro backdrop, under-appreciated earnings growth potential, relatively attractive valuations and reasonably strong liquidity profile.

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.2 -2.9 -6.8 -0.8 183.3

4.2 5.1 7.2 14.5 222.7

5.2 3.3 6.2 5.5 267.4

5.7 6.8 6.6 5.4 304.2

-4.2 0.6

29.7 2.8

8.8 4.2

9.0 3.3

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

24.1 13.1 35.1 19.1

41.1 18.4 49.5 22.2

43.4 16.2 57.8 21.6

42.5 14.0 69.2 22.8

10.5 6.5 0.7

8.4 11.5 0.4

7.0 7.0 0.5

7.0 7.0 0.6

-3.1 -1.7

12.0 5.4

20.7 7.7

10.6 3.5

1.40

1.29

1.21

1.18

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mark Tan

South Korea Present Situation: Real GDP growth moderated to 4.2%yoy in 2011Q1 from 4.7%yoy in 2010Q4. Headline CPI inflation picked up to 4.4%yoy in June from 4.1% yoy in May. Headline inflation was up 0.2%mom, an acceleration from 0.0% in May, while core inflation increased 0.3%mom and 3.7%yoy, a slight moderation from 0.5%mom previously.

South Korea GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate, % External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M3 Growth (%) Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Gen. Govt Balance (% of GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/KRW, eop Debt Sector Total External Debt (% of GDP) Tot Public Sector Debt (% of GDP)

Central Issue: We continue to expect a further 50bp in hikes in 2011 to 3.75%, with the next 25bp hike coming most likely in August. Inflation pressure remains strong, in our view, with the output gap now closed and the labour market tightening. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The US recovery, RMB appreciation and macro policy normalisation in Korea are key macro themes for 2011. KOSPI valuations are among the lowest in the region and remain attractive relative to historical multiples. Globally low interest rates should keep liquidity conditions supportive. That said, due to slowing global growth momentum, we switched to neutral for Korean equities from overweight in early May. Goohoon Kwon Volume 9, Issue 3

46

0.0 4.1 3.2 3.8 -1.4 7.3 2.6 6.6 -2.8 6.0 4.2 4.8 0.3 6.2 4.3 4.4 833.9 1014.1 1180.9 1340.4 2.8

3.0

4.2

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.6

40.4 4.9 32.8 3.9

41.2 4.1 28.2 2.8

22.3 1.9 15.0 1.3

8.7 0.7 6.8 0.5

9.4 4.5 2.9

12.1 9.3 2.8

9.7 8.9 4.2

9.6 8.1 4.7

-13.8 -1.7

-4.2 -0.4

2.7 0.2

14.4 1.1

1167.6 1139.0 1030.0 1010.0 48.1 32.5

42.1 33.3

38.0 32.6

35.6 34.8

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Taiwan Present Situation: Real GDP increased 6.5%yoy in 2011Q1, after 7.1%yoy in 2010Q4. June headline CPI inflation rose to 1.9%yoy, compared with 1.7%yoy in May. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, CPI increased 0.1%mom, the same as in the preceding two months.

Taiwan GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Industrial Production Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate, % External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M2 Growth Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Gen. Govt Balance - US$bn Govt Financial Balance (% GDP) Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/TWD, eop Debt Sector Tot Public Sector Debt (% of GDP)

Central Issue: We believe the strengthening of the currency (versus last year) had helped to mitigate imported inflationary pressures from higher global commodity prices. We expect headline CPI inflation to reach around 3.0%yoy in 2011H2, averaging 2.3% for the full year of 2011. As for 2012, we see inflation coming in at 2.4%. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists are strategically positive on Taiwan given its rising, yet attractively-priced, exposure to China, and the fact that the economy is gradually gravitating towards China and global EM, and away from DM.

Enoch Fung and Shirla Sum

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.1 -11.0 -3.6 -1.9 377.4

3.7 23.4 9.9 10.9 430.2

4.1 5.2 3.3 4.7 497.2

4.7 6.2 4.7 4.9 548.0

-8.1 -0.9

26.9 1.0

13.2 2.3

18.5 2.4

5.8

4.7

3.5

3.0

29.3 7.8 42.9 11.4

23.4 5.4 39.9 9.3

23.2 4.7 40.4 8.1

23.5 4.3 44.3 8.1

5.7 8.4 0.4

5.3 8.6 0.7

5.0 6.0 1.0

5.0 6.0 1.4

-13.1 -3.5

-13.6 -3.2

-10.2 -2.0

-5.3 -1.0

32.0

30.4

27.8

27.5

51.5

50.6

50.4

48.5

2009

2010

2011

2012

-1.1 -9.2 -6.9 -2.3 263.5

4.8 9.4 10.3 7.8 318.8

2.7 7.8 3.4 3.8 364.8

3.5 6.5 4.1 4.2 407.9

-0.9

3.3

4.1

3.8

18.8 7.1 21.9 8.3

12.9 4.1 14.8 4.6

12.9 3.5 18.5 5.1

14.7 3.6 18.2 4.5

6.8 12.8 1.4

10.9 10.9 2.2

7.0 9.0 3.9

7.0 9.0 4.4

-4.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.3

33.3

30.2

29.3

29.0

Thailand Thailand GDP Components, % chg, yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Real GDP Nominal GDP, US$bn Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices External Sector Trade Balance, US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account, US$bn Current Account - % of GDP Financial Sector M2 Growth - yoy Monetary Base - yoy 3 Month Interest Rate, % Public Sector Federal Budget - % of GDP Exchange Rate Forecasts US$/THB, eop

Present Situation: Real GDP growth moderated to 3.8%yoy in 2010Q4, after 6.6%yoy in 2010Q3. June headline CPI inflation came in at 4.1% from 4.2%yoy in May. Core CPI inflation, which the Central Bank targets, continued to rise, reaching 2.6%yoy after 2.5%yoy in May. Central Issue: We continue to expect upward pressure on both headline and core, and remain above consensus on our CPI forecasts. We expect headline CPI to continue to rise, and average 4.1% in 2011, above the consensus expectation of 3.9%. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Our Strategists' valuations look low in absolute terms, but are near the high end of their historical range. The unstable political environment and the associated risks to economic and corporate earnings growth are still high, and could cap further multiple expansion.

Mark Tan

Volume 9, Issue 3

47

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Vietnam Present Situation: GDP growth came in at 5.7%yoy in 2011Q2, up from 5.4%yoy in 2011Q1. Meanwhile, CPI inflation remains at a high level. Inflation rose to 12.8% in 2011Q1 from 10.8% in 2010Q4.

Vietnam Economic Forecasts GDP Components, % change yoy Consumers Expenditure Fixed Investment Real GDP Nominal GDP US$bn

Central Issue: We forecast below-trend real GDP growth of 5.6% and 6.5% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. We expect inflation to peak in 2011Q2 at 19.4%yoy, and remain elevated at an average of 16.0%yoy in 2011H2. This brings annual average inflation to 16.0%.

Output and Prices, % change yoy Consumer Prices Labour Market Unemployment Rate Population External Sector Gross International Reserves incl Gold Trade Balance US$bn Trade Balance - % of GDP Current Account US$bn Current Account - % of GDP

Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We believe the periodic devaluations establish a weakening trend in the VND. Notably, frequent downward adjustments in the VND exchange rate may deter investors and Vietnamese citizens (who hold a large proportion of assets in FX and gold) from holding the local currency even over the short term.

Financial Sector Exchange Rate eop

2009

2010

2011

2012

3.7 9.4 3.8 4.6 4.3 10.4 4.1 4.6 5.3 6.8 5.6 6.5 92.9 103.4 117.6 132.2 6.7

9.2

16.0

8.3

4.6 86.0

4.4 87.2

5.2 88.3

6.2 89.5

16.8 10.9 5.6 -12.9 -12.6 -11.5 -13.8 -12.2 -9.8 -6.1 -3.9 -5.6 -6.6 -3.8 -4.9

12.0 -6.7 -5.1 -0.7 -0.6

18465 19495 20900 21113

Shirla Sum

Volume 9, Issue 3

48

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Country Reports – Latin America and Canada Argentina Present Situation: President Cristina Kirchner is leading voters' preferences ahead of the October 2011 presidential election. Excessive fiscal stimulus and a lax monetary policy stance are overheating the economy and generating strong demand-pull pressures on inflation. Given the electoral cycle, we do not expect the authorities to tighten policy.

Argentina

2009 2010 2011 2012

Activity and Prices Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.9 9.2 7.7 3.2 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 307.0 368.3 436.7 451.0 Consumer Prices (yoy, eop) 7.7 10.9 9.8 13.2 External Sector Current Account (US$bn) 11.1 3.1 -0.9 -0.4 Trade Balance (%GDP) 6.1 3.9 2.7 2.7 Exports (US$bn) 55.7 68.1 77.7 81.9 Imports (US$bn) 37.1 53.9 66.0 69.7 Exchange Rate (ARS/USD, e.o.p.) 3.80 3.97 4.35 5.10 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 48.0 52.2 48.0 49.0 Monetary Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) 11.5 31.6 28.0 21.0 Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 13.5 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Day CD Rate (e.o.p.) 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.0 Financial Sector - % of GDP Federal Govt Primary Balance 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 Federal Govt Overall Balance -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 Debt Sector - % of GDP Federal Govt Debt (%GDP) 57.9 47.7 41.6 42.2 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 30.2 28.0 22.5 22.7 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 27.8 19.7 19.1 19.5 Total External Debt (%GDP) 47.9 38.0 34.8 34.7

Central Issue: Restoring the credibility of Indec, establishing a more constructive relationship with the multilateral agencies and dealing with the Paris Club payment arrears are key unresolved issues. Real GDP grew at a strong 9.9%yoy during 1Q2011. We expect real GDP growth to grow at an above-trend 7.7% in 2011, with inflation remaining around 25%. The significant increase in imports is likely to push the current account into a small deficit in 2011, down from a 0.8%-of-GDP surplus in 2010. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Monetary policy is expected to remain lax (negative real interest rates). We expect the authorities to accelerate the pace of ARS depreciation after the October elections. Alberto M. Ramos

Brazil Present Situation: We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 4.5% in 2011, bolstered by a 5.4% increase in domestic demand. We expect the output gap to remain above neutral and this should raise IPCA inflation to 6.5% in 2011. We see COPOM raising SELIC four more times, by 25bp per meeting, to 13.25%. We also expect the government to tighten fiscal and credit policies, albeit moderately.

Brazil Activities and Prices Real GDP Growth (%yoy) Nominal GDP (US$bn) Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p) External Sector Current Account (%GDP) Trade Balance (%GDP) Exports (US$bn, fob) Imports (US$bn, fob) Exchange Rate (BRL/USD), e.o.p.) Gross International Reserves (US$bn) Monetary Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) SELIC Rate (e.o.p.) Public Sector Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) Public Sector Overall Balance (%GDP) Debt Sector Net Public Sector Debt (%GDP) Net Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP Net External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) Total External Debt (%GDP)

Central Issue: In 2011, the new administration will need to harmonise macro policies to reconcile growth with price and external stability. Large capital inflows and gains in the terms of trade should strengthen the BRL to R$1.50 in three months, increasing significantly the risk that additional measures will be needed to prevent the BRL from appreciating further. Large external borrowing requirements will leave the exchange rate more vulnerable to gyrations in global risk appetite.

Paulo Leme

Volume 9, Issue 3

49

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.6 7.5 4.5 4.0 1625.1 2099.1 2582.2 2631.1 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.9 -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 153.0 201.9 258.3 300.0 128.7 181.6 237.0 286.0 1.74 1.66 1.62 1.85 238.5 288.6 359.6 342.6 12.6 42.6 8.8

24.6 44.5 10.8

14.0 45.4 13.3

10.0 45.9 13.3

2.0 -3.3

2.8 -2.6

2.6 -3.0

2.7 -2.9

42.8 52.0 -9.2 12.4

40.4 50.1 -9.7 12.2

39.8 49.8 -10.0 11.3

39.0 49.2 -10.2 11.8

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Chile Present Situation: Domestic demand is expanding at an exuberant double-digit pace. The inflation outlook remains comfortable. The Bank announced in January a US$12bn reserve accumulation program (US$50mn/ day).

Chile 2009 2010 2011 2012 Activity and Prices Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -1.7 5.2 6.6 5.4 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 161.2 203.4 246.1 268.2 Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) -1.5 3.0 3.9 3.0 External Sector Current Account (%GDP) 1.6 1.9 0.5 -0.1 Trade Balance (%GDP) 8.8 7.8 5.9 4.8 Exports (US$bn) 54.0 71.0 83.9 89.0 Imports (US$bn) 39.9 55.2 69.3 76.1 Exchange Rate (CLP/USD, e.o.p.) 501 475 460 480 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 25.4 27.9 38.0 38.6 Monetary Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) 10.4 18.2 23.0 23.0 Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 70.2 65.8 66.4 69.7 Interest Rate 90 Day PDBC (%) 0.5 3.4 6.2 6.7 Public Sector (%GDP) Public Sector Primary Balance -3.9 0.1 3.4 2.7 Public Sector Overall Balance -4.4 -0.4 2.8 2.0 Debt Sector, % of GDP Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 6.1 7.4 7.3 7.2 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.0 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 Total External Debt (%GDP) 45.3 42.3 37.0 35.8

Central Issue: Real GDP grew a solid 9.8%yoy (+1.3% qoq sa) in 2011Q1 driven by robust domestic demand (+13.4%yoy). We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.6% in 2011, on the back of the post-earthquake reconstruction drive, supportive terms of trade, strong labour market conditions and firming credit flows. Inflation is likely to end 2011 at around the 4.0% upper limit of the inflation target band given intense food-fuel supply shocks during 2011Q1. The current account posted a 1.9%-of-GDP surplus in 2010 and we forecast another surplus of around 0.5% of GDP in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Fundamental drivers (e.g., rallying copper prices, buoyant domestic demand growth and a widening domestic-foreign interest rate differential) continue to support the CLP. The Central Bank made a tactical pause in the rate normalisation cycle in July. Alberto M. Ramos

Colombia Present Situation: The economic expansion is firming, with domestic demand growth accelerating. Inflation remains well-behaved.

Colombia 2009 2010 2011 2012 Activity and Prices Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 1.5 4.3 5.5 4.9 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 237.6 289.0 328.4 345.6 Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 2.0 3.2 3.8 3.0 External Sector Current Account (US$bn) -5.2 -9.0 -8.0 -8.6 Trade Balance (%GDP) 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 Exports (US$bn, fob) 32.6 39.5 50.8 55.7 Imports (US$bn, fob) 30.5 37.5 46.6 51.7 Exchange Rate (COP/USD, e.o.p.) 2044 1914 1750 1900 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 25.0 28.1 30.7 31.5 Financial Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) 6.8 13.5 16.0 12.0 Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 25.8 27.5 28.6 29.7 Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 4.1 3.5 5.2 6.3 Public Sector Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -2.5 Debt Sector Total Pub Sector Debt (%GDP) 42.8 43.0 44.0 43.2 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 28.3 30.0 31.2 30.6 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 14.4 13.0 12.8 12.6 Total External Debt (%GDP) 23.0 21.8 21.0 21.1

Central Issue: Real GDP grew a solid 5.1%yoy (+1.9% qoq sa) in 2011Q1. We expect growth of 5.5% in 2011. The moderate economic recovery does not present an immediate challenge to the inflation outlook as the economy is still operating with slack. We expect inflation to end 2011 slightly above the 3.0% IT midpoint. The Central Bank started to reduce the level of monetary accommodation in February and we expect it to take the policy rate to 4.5%-5.0% by end-2011. The current account deficit is likely to reach 2.5% of GDP in 2011 and be fully covered by FDI flows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The COP is trading stronger than its theoretical 'fair value' and may test stronger levels in the near term. The Central Bank has taken the policy rate to a still simulative 4.25% and is expected to make a pause in the cycle in the near term. Alberto M. Ramos

Volume 9, Issue 3

50

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Dominican Republic Present Situation: In 2011, we expect real GDP growth to decelerate to 5.4%yoy from 7.8%yoy due to the withdrawal of policy stimulus as mandated by the IMF SBA program. We see inflation accelerating in 2011 (8.7%yoy) due to supply-side shocks, but receding in 2012 (to 5.9%yoy).

Dominican Republic Activity and Prices Real GDP (% chg yoy) Nominal GDP (Level) Consumer Prices (% chg yoy) External Sector Current Account (% of GDP) Trade Balance - % of GDP Export Growth Import Growth Exchange Rate (Quarterly Path) Gross International Reserves incl Monetary Sector Monetary Growth Credit to the Private Sector Policy Rate Public Sector Primary Fiscal Bal (% of GDP) Debt Sector Gross Public Debt - % of GDP Total External Debt (% of GDP) Total External Debt (US$bn)

Central Issue: We have a constructive short-term outlook on the economy. However, we are more cautious about the medium term. This is because in order to make growth sustainable, the country needs to persist with structural reforms. However, the forthcoming electoral cycle (presidential elections are due in May 2012), the expiry of the IMF program (February 2012) and increased social tensions suggest that it will become increasingly difficult for the government to pursue reforms. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The financing of hefty deficits is not a problem in the short term. However, a weak external liquidity position is a constraint on credit ratings.

2009

2010

2011

2012

3.5 46.8 4.3

7.8 51.8 9.2

5.4 54.7 11.8

5.5 59.3 9.1

-5.0 -8.0 -7.4 -9.8 36.2 3.3

-8.6 -11.7 11.6 14.4 37.5 3.8

-9.0 -12.5 8.0 10.0 39.0 3.4

-6.2 -9.9 12.1 13.1 41.0 3.2

16.1 8.4 4.0

8.1 21.3 5.0

– 7.1 9.0

– 8.5 9.0

-1.6

-0.4

0.8

0.5

28.3 17.6 8.2

28.6 19.2 9.9

31.4 20.0 10.9

34.8 21.0 12.5

Eduardo Cavallo

Ecuador Present Situation: Higher oil prices are supporting the smallest OPEC member country on various fronts. As a result, we upgraded our annual growth forecast for 2011 to 3.9% from 2.3%, and for 2012 to 3.5% from 2.5%. The forecast revision is based on the better-thanexpected economic performance since 2010Q4 and on the more bullish forecast for oil prices over the forecasting horizon.

Ecuador 2009 Activity and Prices % chg yoy Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.4 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 52.0 Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 4.3 External Sector Current Account (US$bn) -0.2 Trade Balance (%GDP) 0.1 Exports (US$bn, fob) 14.4 Imports (US$bn, fob) 14.3 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 3.8 Monetary Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) 10.6 Credit to Private Sector (%GDP) 26.7 Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 5.2 Financial Sector Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -3.8 Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -4.3 Debt Sector Total Public Debt (%GDP) 19.9 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 5.5 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 14.4 Total External Debt (%GDP) 26.0

Central Issue: Notwithstanding the forecast revisions, the heterodox policy mix continues to limit domestic and foreign investment. This makes the economy increasingly more dependent on the oil sector and reduces the basis for sustainable long-term growth. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: CDS spreads are likely to remain distressed owing to the weak payment culture and the government's market-unfriendly heterodox policy mix.

2010

2011

2012

3.6 57.6 3.3

3.9 62.0 5.3

3.5 66.4 4.0

-1.9 -1.8 18.1 19.6 2.6

-2.3 -2.0 20.8 22.6 2.7

-2.5 -2.2 23.9 26.0 3.0

19.0 29.9 4.3

6.8 32.0 5.0

-2.7 28.6 5.5

-1.4 -2.1

-4.8 -6.0

-4.8 -6.0

23.4 8.2 15.2 24.3

29.7 13.6 16.1 25.0

33.7 17.2 16.6 25.6

Eduardo Cavallo

Volume 9, Issue 3

51

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Mexico Present Situation: Inflation, headline and core, has been surprising on the downside. The economy continues to recover at a moderate pace against a backdrop of a still negative output gap and a significant amount of slack in the labour market. The authorities remain firm believers in the benefits of a free-floating currency.

Mexico Activities and Prices % chg yoy Real GDP Growth (%yoy) Nominal GDP (US$ bn) Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) External Sector Current Account (US$bn) Trade Balance (%GDP) Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Exchange Rate (MXN/USD, e.o.p.) Gross International Reserves (US$bn) Monetary Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) Tasa de Fondeo Rate (e.o.p.) Public Sector Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) Debt Sector Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) Total External Debt (%GDP)

Central Issue: We forecast that real GDP growth will moderate to 4.4% in 2011, after growing 5.4% in 2010. Headline INPC inflation will likely moderate to 3.3% in 2011 from 4.4% in 2010. The external accounts are a source of macro resilience. We forecast a minor 0.5%-ofGDP current account deficit in 2011, which is about a quarter of projected FDI inflows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the Central Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, at least until 2012Q1. Alberto Ramos

2009

2010

2011

2012

-6.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 879.7 1034.8 1211.1 1324.7 3.6 4.4 3.2 3.4 -6.4 -0.5 229.7 234.4 13.06 90.8

-5.6 -0.3 298.5 301.5 12.36 113.6

-5.5 -0.3 335.6 339.3 11.50 144.7

-7.6 -0.6 358.4 366.8 11.70 170.1

9.4 13.5 4.5

9.7 13.3 4.5

9.0 13.8 4.5

9.0 14.0 5.5

-0.1 -2.3

-0.9 -2.8

1.8 -2.5

1.9 -2.3

29.4 29.8 -0.4 22.3

25.6 25.7 -0.1 23.8

24.9 24.9 0.0 19.2

23.2 23.2 0.0 18.4

2009

2010

2011

2012

Panama Present Situation: We forecast real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2011, fuelled by a substantial public investment project: US$20bn over five years to finance the expansion of the Panama Canal and other public works. This project is expected to more than double the Canal's capacity upon completion (scheduled for 2014).

Panama GDP Components,% chg, yoy Real GDP Nominal GDP (Level) ** GDP per Capita USD Output and Prices, % chg, yoy Consumer Prices External Sector % of GDP Trade Balance Current Account Financial Sector Credit to the Private Sector % of GDP Public Sector % of GDP Primary Balance Overall Balance Debt Sector % of GDP Total External Debt Total Gross Public Sector Debt

Central Issue: A strong macroeconomic performance and a solid fiscal outlook earned Panama investment grade status in 2010. The main challenge for the authorities in 2011H2 is to manage the risk of overheating. This could oblige the authorities to apply an abrupt brake to the public investment projects that are underway. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: The positive credit outlook appears to have been priced in already, as Panamanian sovereign bonds are trading at tight spreads compared with their peers.

3.0 7.5 7.8 7.0 24.9 27.2 29.9 33.0 7197.4 7771.1 8317.8 9163.9 1.9

4.9

7.5

7.0

4.9 -0.2

-4.7 -10.9

-4.0 -9.8

-3.9 -9.2

86.4

90.0

90.0

90.0

1.9 -1.0

1.2 -1.9

0.2 -2.4

1.2 -1.2

50.0 40.8

51.5 38.4

48.4 37.3

45.5 35.0

Eduardo Cavallo

Volume 9, Issue 3

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Global Economics Analyst

Peru Present Situation: We revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2011 down to 6.4% from 6.8%yoy in recognition of the deceleration in private investment growth expected for 2Q. The risks to the growth outlook are balanced: while the incoming government may provide additional fiscal stimulus, business confidence could remain subdued.

Peru 2009 2010 2011 2012 Activity and Prices Real GDP Growth (%yoy) 0.9 8.8 6.4 6.2 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 127.0 153.8 169.9 183.5 Consumer Prices - yoy, end period 0.2 2.1 3.3 2.7 External Sector Current Account (US$bn) 0.2 -2.3 -4.3 -6.0 Trade Balance (%GDP) 4.7 4.4 3.5 2.2 Exports (US$bn, fob) 27.0 35.6 41.2 42.7 Imports (US$bn, fob) 21.0 28.8 35.2 38.7 Exchange rate (PEN/USD, e.o.p.) 2.89 2.81 2.80 2.82 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 33.2 44.2 48.9 51.8 Financial Sector Monetary Base (% change, yoy) 5.5 45.3 -2.8 0.7 Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 24.7 24.8 26.5 28.0 Reference Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 1.3 3.0 4.5 4.5 Public Sector Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -1.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 Debt Sector Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 27.3 23.5 22.4 21.4 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 11.0 10.6 10.6 10.6 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 16.2 12.9 11.8 10.9 Total External Debt (%GDP) 28.1 26.2 25.6 24.8

Central Issue: We expect inflation to increase to 3.27% yoy in 2011, which is above the upper end of the Central Bank's tight target band. For 2012, we see inflation gradually declining back towards the target.The current account deficit is likely to hover around 2.5% of GDP in 2011, and should be easily financed by solid FDI inflows. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: We expect the Central Bank to raise the policy rate at least once more during 2011H2 in order to consolidate the rate normalisation cycle. The Bank would likely raise the policy rate by more only if the inflation outlook were to deteriorate. Eduardo Cavallo

Venezuela Present Situation: The policy mix remains heterodox and market-unfriendly. President Chavez has been diagnosed with cancer and is expected to undergo treatment over the next few months. The medical prognosis remains unknown.

Venezuela 2009 2010 2011 2012 Activity and Prices % chg yoy Real GDP Growth (%yoy) -3.2 -1.5 4.0 4.3 Nominal GDP (US$bn) 326.1 237.7 298.5 367.2 Consumer Prices (yoy, e.o.p.) 26.9 27.4 26.7 19.0 External Sector Current Account (US$bn) 8.6 14.4 18.5 11.0 Trade Balance (%GDP) 5.9 12.8 10.4 6.0 Exports (US$bn, fob) 57.6 65.8 80.4 82.0 Imports (US$bn, fob) 38.4 38.6 47.4 56.2 Exchange Rate (VEF/USD, e.o.p.) 2.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 Gross International Reserves (US$bn) 35.8 31.2 27.8 26.0 Financial Sector Monetary Base (%yoy) 21.2 21.0 29.0 27.0 Credit to the Private Sector (%GDP) 21.8 18.0 17.4 18.1 Interest Rate (e.o.p.) 12.6 12.6 12.0 12.0 Public Sector Public Sector Nominal Balance (%GDP) -5.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2.4 Public Sector Primary Balance (%GDP) -4.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 Debt Sector Total Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 18.4 25.3 24.6 23.5 7.6 8.8 Total Domestic Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 9.7 9.9 Total External Public Sector Debt (%GDP) 10.8 16.4 14.9 13.6 Total External Debt (%GDP) 14.5 19.8 17.6 16.2

Central Issue: We forecast a moderate 4.0% real GDP expansion in 2011 (up from -1.5% in 2010) on the back of policy stimulus, higher oil prices and a favourable statistical base. Inflation is high and endemic: low investment in the economy, together with loose monetary and fiscal policy, have entrenched inflation at above 25%yoy despite a deep and protracted 2-year recession. As expected, the authorities devalued the VEF early in 2011. The external accounts remain solid (a current account surplus of 6.0% of GDP in 2010) but the strength of the sovereign balance sheet has been eroding. Higher oil prices are likely to secure a current account surplus of 6%-plus in 2011. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: High hard currency yields are attractive but the credit fundamentals story is slowly deteriorating.

* In January 2008, Venezuela redenominated the Bolivar: VEF = VEB/1000.

Alberto M. Ramos Volume 9, Issue 3

53

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Canada Present Situation: Canadian growth was solid in Q4 and Q1, although with significant help from inventory accumulation early in 2011. Q2 growth should be significantly softer, dragged down by higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions in the vehicle sector. The Bank of Canada has kept the overnight rate target at 1% since September 2010.

Canada 2009 2010 2011 2012 Activities and Prices % chg yoy Real GDP -2.8 3.2 2.9 3.2 Nominal GDP, C$bn 1529.0 1624.6 1728.2 1827.7 Consumer Prices - yoy 0.3 1.8 2.7 2.0 Final Domestic Demand - yoy -2.1 4.5 4.4 3.4 Business Fixed Investment - yoy -20.8 7.3 13.7 9.5 External Sector Merchandise Trade Balance -4.7 -9.0 3.4 12.8 Current Account Balance -45.2 -50.9 -40.2 -31.3 Current Account - % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.7 Financial Sector M1 Growth (%) 13.2 11.7 8.5 7.9 M2++ Growth - yoy 24.1 -2.9 5.3 6.9 Overnight Interest Rate Target %, eop 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.5 Prime Rate %, eop 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.5 3 Month BAs - %, eop 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.6 10 Year Govt. Bond Yield, eop 3.6 3.1 3.8 4.5 Exchange Rate - $/C$ 1.06 1.01 0.95 0.95 Public Sector Federal Bud Bal C$bn, fiscal year 0.0 -25.0 -15.0 0.0 Government Financial Bal 5.0 -30.0 -20.0 -5.0 Govt Financial Balance (% GDP) 0.3 -1.8 -1.2 -0.3

Central Issue: The robustness of domestic demand. On the upside, consumer spending grew at a healthy pace in 2010 and financial conditions remain fairly supportive. On the downside, housing prices look stretched, consumer indebtedness is high and federal fiscal stimulus is beginning to fade. Investment Themes/Monetary Policy: Canada suffered less credit damage than most developed markets, and continues to benefit from sound fiscal and monetary policies. Key risks are household indebtedness, the housing sector and the international competitiveness of manufacturing in light of the appreciation in the Canadian Dollar.

Andrew Tilton

Volume 9, Issue 3

54

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Size of the World Memo Items:

GDP (PPP Weights1); 2010 US$bn

Share of World Total (%) (1)

14,658 10,108 4,319 4,010 2,939 2,225 2,186 2,186 2,151 1,775 1,554 1,462 1,369 1,333 1,031 959 885 812 719 679 633 587 526 499 431 414 394 354 351 348 331 326 324 323 304 293 275 261 258 256 247 219 203 194 189 186 174 121 120 114 91 78

21.95 15.14 6.47 6.01 4.40 3.33 3.27 3.27 3.22 2.66 2.33 2.19 2.05 2.00 1.54 1.44 1.32 1.22 1.08 1.02 0.95 0.88 0.79 0.75 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.12

World

66,782

Industrial World of which: G7 Euroland

35,207 29,361 10,688

Emerging World

3

United States China Japan India Germany Russia UK Brazil France Italy Mexico Korea Spain Canada Indonesia Turkey Australia Taiwan Poland Netherlands Argentina Thailand South Africa Egypt Colombia Malaysia Belgium Sweden Philippines Venezuela Austria Switzerland Greece Hong Kong Ukraine Singapore Peru Czech Republic Chile Norway Portugal Israel Denmark Kazakhstan Hungary Finland Ireland Slovakia New Zealand Ecuador Bulgaria Croatia

2

Non Japan Asia Latin America Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa

GDP (Current Share of Prices); World 2010 US$bn Total (%) (2) 14,658 5,878 5,459 1,538 3,316 1,465 2,247 2,090 2,583 2,055 1,039 1,007 1,410 1,574 707 742 1,236 431 469 783 370 319 357 218 286 238 466 456 189 291 377 524 305 225 136 223 153 192 203 414 229 213 311 138 129 239 204 87 140 59 48 61

25.06 10.05 9.33 2.63 5.67 2.50 3.84 3.57 4.42 3.51 1.78 1.72 2.41 2.69 1.21 1.27 2.11 0.74 0.80 1.34 0.63 0.55 0.61 0.37 0.49 0.41 0.80 0.78 0.32 0.50 0.64 0.90 0.52 0.38 0.23 0.38 0.26 0.33 0.35 0.71 0.39 0.36 0.53 0.24 0.22 0.41 0.35 0.15 0.24 0.10 0.08 0.10

100

58,487

100

51 43 16

38,986 31,891 12,055

66 54 20

33,281

49

20,463

34

19,390 5,801 5,392 2,698

28 8 8 4

10,754 4,491 3,629 1,590

18 8 6 3

Difference Stock Market Share of in Share Capitalisation World US$bn Total (%) (1-2) (mid-Jul11) -3.11 5.08 -2.87 3.38 -1.27 0.83 -0.57 -0.30 -1.19 -0.86 0.55 0.47 -0.36 -0.70 0.34 0.17 -0.79 0.48 0.28 -0.32 0.32 0.33 0.18 0.37 0.16 0.21 -0.21 -0.25 0.20 0.02 -0.15 -0.41 -0.04 0.10 0.22 0.06 0.15 0.06 0.04 -0.32 -0.02 -0.04 -0.23 0.05 0.06 -0.13 -0.09 0.03 -0.06 0.07 0.05 0.01

FX Reserves US$bn (end-1Q11)

Share of World Total (%)

52 3,045 1,042 274 37 454 54 309 39 37 118 294 13 47 99 85 27 393 99 10 46 174 41 27 28 109 8 41 57 6 7 225 0 273 35 232 44 40 30 50 2 73 80 32 49 6 0 0 17 3 14 16

0.63 36.71 12.56 3.31 0.45 5.48 0.65 3.72 0.47 0.45 1.42 3.54 0.16 0.57 1.20 1.03 0.33 4.73 1.20 0.12 0.55 2.10 0.49 0.32 0.33 1.32 0.10 0.49 0.69 0.08 0.08 2.72 0.00 3.29 0.42 2.80 0.53 0.48 0.36 0.60 0.03 0.88 0.96 0.38 0.60 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.21 0.03 0.17 0.19

14,838 596 3,737 1,125 1,527 932 3,152 1,238 1,855 589 418 953 642 1,861 333 226 1,204 559 166 452 48 238 465 53 207 361 246 501 144 5 120 1,251 56 1,582 530 84 50 283 260 76 157 203 30 174 72 53 2 -

33.99 1.36 8.56 2.58 3.50 2.14 7.22 2.84 4.25 1.35 0.96 2.18 1.47 4.26 0.76 0.52 2.76 1.28 0.38 1.03 0.11 0.55 1.07 0.12 0.47 0.83 0.56 1.15 0.33 0.01 0.27 2.87 0.13 3.62 1.21 0.19 0.12 0.65 0.60 0.17 0.36 0.46 0.07 0.40 0.16 0.12 0.00 -

–

43,657

100

8,293

100

-14 -11 -5

32,871 27,560 5,810

75 63 13

1,795 1,309 161

22 16 2

14

10,786

25

6,498

78

10 1 2 1

6,420 2,283 1,407 675

15 5 3 2

4,951 582 825 140

60 7 10 2

1US used

as benchmark country for computing GDP in PPP terms. the above table: Romania (Eastern Europe), Iran and Saudi Arabia (Middle East & Africa). The 'World' includes only those countries in the table. 3'Non Japan Asia' includes both industrial and emerging market countries in the region. 2The 'Emerging World' includes three countries not in

Volume 9, Issue 3

55

3rd Quarter 2011


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Global Economics Analyst

World Data World Exports EXPORTS TO (US$ bn, 2009) OECD * Origin Econom y OECD % of total exports % of GDP UNITED STATES % of total exports % of GDP JAPAN % of total exports % of GDP EUROLAND % of total exports % of GDP GERMANY % of total exports % of GDP FRANCE % of total exports % of GDP ITALY % of total exports % of GDP UNITED KINGDOM % of total exports % of GDP NETHERLANDS % of total exports % of GDP SPAIN % of total exports % of GDP AUSTRIA % of total exports % of GDP BELGIUM % of total exports % of GDP DENMARK % of total exports % of GDP FINLAND % of total exports % of GDP GREECE % of total exports % of GDP IRELAND % of total exports % of GDP PORTUGAL % of total exports % of GDP SWEDEN % of total exports % of GDP SWITZERLAND % of total exports % of GDP ICELAND % of total exports % of GDP NORWAY % of total exports % of GDP CANADA % of total exports % of GDP AUSTRALIA % of total exports % of GDP NEW ZEALAND % of total exports % of GDP

US

710.9 9.6 1.8 568.5 44.5 3.9 228.1 29.6 4.2 2516.7 66.8 21.0 725.3 60.1 21.9 334.4 65.6 12.9 255.4 57.9 12.4 259.8 69.5 11.6 443.8 78.2 56.7 167.0 69.2 11.8 90.8 61.2 24.1 315.8 78.4 67.8 73.7 77.6 23.7 42.5 62.1 17.8 9.9 47.1 3.2 94.8 84.4 46.4 36.9 76.2 16.1 110.3 73.5 24.2 139.6 71.6 26.7 4.0 86.6 31.6 113.2 86.0 27.3 335.5 86.7 21.3 74.0 34.9 6.0 16.1 51.3 11.5

120.5 15.6 2.2 205.0 5.4 1.7 65.5 5.4 2.0 26.2 5.1 1.0 25.5 5.8 1.2 42.5 11.4 1.9 21.4 3.8 2.7 7.8 3.3 0.6 5.2 3.5 1.4 21.3 5.3 4.6 5.7 5.9 1.8 4.8 7.0 2.0 0.8 4.0 0.3 24.8 22.1 12.1 1.7 3.5 0.7 9.6 6.4 2.1 19.8 10.2 3.8 0.2 4.5 1.7 6.5 5.0 1.6 289.9 74.9 18.4 8.5 4.0 0.7 2.7 8.6 1.9

JAPAN

168.8 2.3 0.4 60.5 4.7 0.4

39.8 1.1 0.3 13.1 1.1 0.4 7.4 1.5 0.3 5.3 1.2 0.3 5.3 1.4 0.2 3.7 0.7 0.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 3.7 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.9 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.8 1.2 0.4 6.5 3.3 1.2 0.1 2.5 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 8.9 2.3 0.6 40.1 18.9 3.2 2.4 7.8 1.7

EMU-12

GERMANY

2538.2 34.3 6.5 176.4 13.8 1.2 62.9 8.2 1.2

499.4 41.4 15.1 246.1 48.3 9.5 184.6 41.9 9.0 185.1 49.5 8.2 348.6 61.4 44.5 135.2 56.0 9.6 75.3 50.8 20.0 246.6 61.2 53.0 37.9 39.8 12.2 20.5 30.0 8.6 7.3 34.8 2.4 45.9 40.9 22.5 31.1 64.2 13.6 58.9 39.2 12.9 93.5 47.9 17.8 2.8 61.4 22.4 53.8 40.9 13.0 15.6 4.0 1.0 8.6 4.0 0.7 2.0 6.5 1.5

NON JAPAN ASIA

666.1 9.0 1.7 48.2 3.8 0.3 20.3 2.6 0.4 464.2 12.3 3.9

1075.5 14.5 2.8 242.9 19.0 1.7 367.3 47.6 6.7 248.4 6.6 2.1 107.2 8.9 3.2 39.9 7.8 1.5 28.8 6.5 1.4 29.5 7.9 1.3 21.2 3.7 2.7 8.6 3.6 0.6 7.3 4.9 1.9 22.2 5.5 4.8 5.8 6.1 1.9 6.6 9.7 2.8 0.6 2.9 0.2 5.3 4.7 2.6 0.7 1.5 0.3 10.0 6.7 2.2 23.3 12.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.5 6.9 5.2 1.7 24.2 6.3 1.5 108.3 51.2 8.8 8.6 27.5 6.1

83.5 16.4 3.2 58.1 13.2 2.8 41.7 11.2 1.9 147.5 26.0 18.8 25.8 10.7 1.8 47.7 32.1 12.7 76.8 19.1 16.5 16.8 17.6 5.4 7.0 10.2 2.9 2.3 10.9 0.8 9.1 8.1 4.5 6.3 13.1 2.8 15.8 10.5 3.5 37.5 19.2 7.2 0.6 14.1 5.1 15.0 11.4 3.6 3.8 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.3

ASEAN-4

364.6 4.9 0.9 94.6 7.4 0.6 129.8 16.8 2.4

24.5 2.0 0.7 16.2 3.2 0.6 9.8 2.2 0.5 12.5 3.3 0.6 9.2 1.6 1.2 2.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 1.3 0.5 5.0 1.2 1.1 2.4 2.6 0.8 1.7 2.5 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.3 1.6 0.5 11.3 5.8 2.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 3.5 2.6 0.8 6.3 1.6 0.4 26.2 12.4 2.1 2.2 7.1 1.6

CHINA

444.8 6.0 1.1 91.9 7.2 0.6 149.6 19.4 2.7 109.6 2.9 0.9 58.3 4.8 1.8 14.2 2.8 0.5 11.2 2.5 0.5 7.9 2.1 0.4 6.9 1.2 0.9 3.4 1.4 0.2 3.3 2.2 0.9 6.3 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.4 0.7 3.4 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.5 3.0 1.0 7.2 3.7 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.3 1.8 0.6 12.9 3.3 0.8 53.1 25.1 4.3 3.5 11.1 2.5

LATIN AMERICA 385.4 5.2 1.0 241.5 18.9 1.6 36.8 4.8 0.7

28.6 2.4 0.9 10.9 2.1 0.4 11.8 2.7 0.6 5.4 1.4 0.2 7.2 1.3 0.9 9.1 3.8 0.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 5.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.3 2.7 0.6 3.0 2.0 0.7 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.3 9.3 2.4 0.6 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.3

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE 408.1 5.5 1.0 17.7 1.4 0.1 9.6 1.2 0.2

9.6 0.8 0.3 30.4 6.0 1.2 44.3 10.0 2.2 17.0 4.5 0.8 35.3 6.2 4.5 14.3 5.9 1.0 25.2 17.0 6.7 20.4 5.1 4.4 5.3 5.6 1.7 3.9 5.7 1.6 4.0 19.0 1.3 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.7 3.5 0.7 8.6 5.7 1.9 8.2 4.2 1.6 0.1 1.8 0.7 4.1 3.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1

TOTAL EXPORTS (US$bn)

2010 GDP (nom inal US$ bn)

7397.0

39053.8

1277.6

14657.8

771.7

5458.9

3767.3

11967.3

1206.1

3315.6

510.1

2582.5

440.8

2055.1

373.6

2247.5

567.6

783.3

241.3

1410.0

148.4

376.8

402.8

465.7

95.0

310.8

68.4

239.2

21.1

305.4

112.3

204.3

48.5

229.3

150.0

455.8

195.1

523.8

4.6

12.6

131.7

414.5

387.1

1574.1

211.8

1235.5

31.4

140.4

* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

Volume 9, Issue 3

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Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

EXPORTS TO (US$ bn, 2009) OECD *

US

JAPAN

EMU-12

Origin Econom y 1440.4 520.9 276.5 410.3 NON JAPAN ASIA % of total exports 36.7 13.3 7.0 10.5 % of GDP 13.4 4.8 2.6 3.8 396.5 143.3 76.9 103.6 ASEAN-4 % of total exports 26.8 9.7 5.2 7.0 % of GDP 21.0 7.6 4.1 5.5 734.8 283.7 120.3 226.1 CHINA % of total exports 46.5 17.9 7.6 14.3 % of GDP 12.5 4.8 2.0 3.8 108.3 42.8 16.5 30.5 HONG KONG % of total exports 27.7 11.0 4.2 7.8 % of GDP 48.1 19.0 7.3 13.6 61.8 14.3 25.8 14.2 INDONESIA % of total exports 39.2 9.1 16.3 9.0 % of GDP 8.7 2.0 3.6 2.0 121.0 46.0 26.0 28.3 KOREA % of total exports 26.2 10.0 5.6 6.1 % of GDP 12.0 4.6 2.6 2.8 79.8 24.2 20.6 17.8 MALAYSIA % of total exports 33.6 10.2 8.7 7.5 % of GDP 33.5 10.2 8.7 7.5 22.9 7.7 7.4 6.0 PHILIPPINES % of total exports 39.6 13.4 12.7 10.3 % of GDP 12.1 4.1 3.9 3.2 87.3 23.0 16.4 24.8 SINGAPORE % of total exports 24.7 6.5 4.6 7.0 % of GDP 39.2 10.3 7.4 11.1 79.9 31.5 18.0 19.9 TAIWAN % of total exports 29.1 11.5 6.6 7.2 % of GDP 18.6 7.3 4.2 4.6 71.7 20.2 20.4 14.3 THAILAND % of total exports 36.7 10.4 10.5 7.3 % of GDP 22.5 6.3 6.4 4.5 72.9 27.5 5.0 28.5 INDIA % of total exports 33.6 12.6 2.3 13.1 % of GDP 4.7 1.8 0.3 1.9 403.2 271.0 18.1 71.5 LATIN AMERICA % of total exports 57.4 38.6 2.6 10.2 % of GDP 10.1 6.8 0.5 1.8 16.6 3.6 0.9 8.8 ARGENTINA % of total exports 24.5 5.4 1.3 13.0 % of GDP 4.5 1.0 0.2 2.4 72.2 19.5 7.1 36.3 BRAZIL % of total exports 35.8 9.6 3.5 18.0 % of GDP 3.5 0.9 0.3 1.7 27.0 6.7 6.8 10.0 CHILE % of total exports 40.3 10.0 10.2 14.9 % of GDP 13.3 3.3 3.4 4.9 251.8 210.8 3.2 13.1 MEXICO % of total exports 87.8 73.5 1.1 4.6 % of GDP 24.2 20.3 0.3 1.3 35.6 30.3 0.1 3.3 VENEZUELA % of total exports 45.4 38.7 0.1 4.2 % of GDP 12.2 10.4 0.0 1.1 251.9 10.1 1.8 239.7 CENTRAL EUROPE % of total exports 51.2 2.1 0.4 48.7 % of GDP 16.5 0.7 0.1 15.7 78.3 2.2 0.5 75.6 CZECH REPUBLIC % of total exports 59.3 1.7 0.4 57.2 % of GDP 40.8 1.1 0.3 39.3 49.7 2.0 0.6 47.7 HUNGARY % of total exports 52.1 2.1 0.6 50.0 % of GDP 38.6 1.6 0.5 37.0 86.2 2.1 0.4 81.0 POLAND % of total exports 57.2 1.4 0.3 53.7 % of GDP 18.4 0.4 0.1 17.3 37.7 3.8 0.3 35.5 TURKEY % of total exports 33.1 3.4 0.2 31.1 % of GDP 5.1 0.5 0.0 4.8 * Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

Volume 9, Issue 3

NON JAPAN ASEAN-4 ASIA

GERMANY

123.2 3.1 1.1 34.8 2.3 1.8 68.1 4.3 1.2 10.4 2.7 4.6 3.0 1.9 0.4 11.7 2.5 1.2 5.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.2 1.3 6.2 1.7 2.8 6.5 2.4 1.5 3.3 1.7 1.0 6.4 3.0 0.4 15.2 2.2 0.4 1.6 2.3 0.4 8.1 4.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.3 118.7 24.1 7.8 42.8 32.4 22.3 23.9 25.0 18.5 40.5 26.9 8.6 11.5 10.1 1.5

57

599.9 15.3 5.6 798.1 53.9 42.3 437.3 27.7 7.4 241.6 61.9 107.4 71.5 45.3 10.1 193.1 41.8 19.2 122.5 51.6 51.5 29.8 51.7 15.8 200.4 56.7 90.0 162.9 59.3 37.8 74.4 38.1 23.3 48.8 22.5 3.2 102.4 14.6 2.6 10.7 15.8 2.9 45.9 22.7 2.2 22.6 33.7 11.1 10.5 3.7 1.0 12.7 16.2 4.4 14.0 2.8 0.9 3.0 2.3 1.6 3.4 3.6 2.6 2.8 1.8 0.6 4.8 4.2 0.6

319.3 20.2 5.4 13.5 3.5 6.0 28.8 18.3 4.1 32.0 6.9 3.2 50.6 21.3 21.3 14.3 24.8 7.6 55.7 15.8 25.0 53.8 19.6 12.5 16.7 8.6 5.3 15.0 6.9 1.0 14.5 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.3 0.4 7.0 3.5 0.3 4.5 6.7 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1

CHINA

556.3 14.2 5.2 444.7 30.0 23.6

205.8 52.7 91.4 15.7 9.9 2.2 125.5 27.2 12.5 45.8 19.3 19.2 10.9 18.9 5.8 36.5 10.3 16.4 76.9 28.0 17.9 21.5 11.0 6.7 17.7 8.1 1.2 65.1 9.3 1.6 6.2 9.1 1.7 30.8 15.2 1.5 15.9 23.8 7.8 6.2 2.2 0.6 6.0 7.7 2.1 6.6 1.3 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.3 2.3 2.0 0.3

LATIN AMERICA

CENTRAL & TOTAL EASTERN EXPORTS EUROPE (US$bn)

217.7 5.5 2.0 124.0 8.4 6.6 75.2 4.8 1.3 4.9 1.3 2.2 3.1 2.0 0.4 28.7 6.2 2.8 3.8 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.9 0.3 10.5 3.0 4.7 80.0

79.2 2.0 0.7 24.6 1.7 1.3 42.0 2.7 0.7 4.0 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.3 14.4 3.1 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.2 2.4 0.7 1.1 3.8

4.7 2.4 1.5 6.4 3.0 0.4

3.2 1.6 1.0 4.9 2.3 0.3 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

24.2 35.6 6.5 31.6 15.6 1.5 8.2 12.2 4.0 11.9 4.2 1.1 3.7 4.7 1.3 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2

26.2 19.8 13.6 20.4 21.4 15.8 23.2 15.4 4.9 7.4 6.5 1.0

2010 GDP (nom inal US$ bn)

3926.2

10753.9

1480.2

1885.4

1580.4

5878.3

390.3

225.0

157.8

706.7

461.6

1007.1

237.3

238.0

57.8

188.7

353.6

222.7

274.6

430.6

195.4

318.9

217.3

1538.0

702.1

3993.7

68.0

370.3

201.9

2090.3

67.0

203.3

286.8

1039.1

78.4

290.7

492.4

1531.5

132.1

192.2

95.4

129.0

150.7

468.5

114.1

741.9

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

World Imports IMPORTS FROM (US$ bn, 2009) OECD *

US

JAPAN

EMU-12

NON JAPAN ASIA

GERMANY

ASEAN-4

CHINA

LATIN AMERICA

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

TOTAL IMPORTS (US$bn)

2010 GDP (nom inal US$ bn)

Origin Economy OECD % of total imports % of GDP UNITED STATES % of total imports % of GDP JAPAN % of total imports % of GDP EUROLAND % of total imports % of GDP GERMANY % of total imports % of GDP FRANCE % of total imports % of GDP ITALY % of total imports % of GDP UNITED KINGDOM % of total imports % of GDP NETHERLANDS % of total imports % of GDP SPAIN % of total imports % of GDP AUSTRIA % of total imports % of GDP BELGIUM % of total imports % of GDP DENMARK % of total imports % of GDP FINLAND % of total imports % of GDP GREECE % of total imports % of GDP IRELAND % of total imports % of GDP PORTUGAL % of total imports % of GDP SWEDEN % of total imports % of GDP SWITZERLAND % of total imports % of GDP ICELAND % of total imports % of GDP NORWAY % of total imports % of GDP CANADA % of total imports % of GDP AUSTRALIA % of total imports % of GDP NEW ZEALAND % of total imports % of GDP

515.6 6.3 1.3 736.9 57.7 5.0 193.7 25.1 3.5 2363.3 62.9 19.7 628.9 52.1 19.0 416.6 81.7 16.1 253.2 57.4 12.3 335.2 89.7 14.9 291.8 51.4 37.3 185.2 76.8 13.1 107.4 72.4 28.5 299.1 74.2 64.2 61.8 65.0 19.9 43.0 62.8 18.0 30.7 145.5 10.0 49.3 43.9 24.2 58.0 119.8 25.3 107.7 71.8 23.6 145.5 74.6 27.8 2.7 59.2 21.6 52.3 39.7 12.6 284.5 73.5 18.1 88.9 42.0 7.2 15.9 50.4 11.3

69.0 9.9 1.3 150.8 4.0 1.3 37.6 3.6 1.1 20.6 3.5 0.8 12.8 2.7 0.6 31.4 5.8 1.4 35.0 6.8 4.5 9.6 3.1 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.7 20.7 5.3 4.5 2.4 2.9 0.8 1.4 2.0 0.6 1.3 2.1 0.4 8.2 13.8 4.0 1.0 1.3 0.4 4.5 3.1 1.0 9.4 5.3 1.8 0.3 8.1 2.5 4.2 5.4 1.0 216.8 50.4 13.8 23.6 11.0 1.9 3.2 10.5 2.3

237.8 2.9 0.6 123.6 6.3 0.8

62.7 1.7 0.5 20.9 2.0 0.6 6.3 1.1 0.2 5.6 1.2 0.3 9.1 1.7 0.4 14.2 2.8 1.8 3.6 1.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 8.4 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.4 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 2.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 0.4 14.3 3.3 0.9 18.4 8.6 1.5 2.3 7.4 1.6

2627.7 32.4 6.7 246.0 12.5 1.7 53.1 7.6 1.0

459.9 43.6 13.9 339.6 57.1 13.1 206.5 43.4 10.0 237.7 44.2 10.6 177.2 34.5 22.6 147.0 47.3 10.4 98.1 62.4 26.0 231.6 59.7 49.7 37.4 45.2 12.0 24.9 36.6 10.4 25.2 40.3 8.2 14.2 23.8 7.0 51.5 68.3 22.4 67.3 45.8 14.8 121.9 69.3 23.3 1.2 30.2 9.4 23.4 30.5 5.7 32.5 7.6 2.1 28.3 13.2 2.3 3.3 10.6 2.3

782.8 9.6 2.0 84.4 4.3 0.6 19.3 2.8 0.4 474.6 12.6 4.0

114.6 19.3 4.4 77.2 16.2 3.8 70.2 13.1 3.1 79.4 15.5 10.1 39.1 12.6 2.8 69.1 44.0 18.3 63.5 16.4 13.6 17.4 21.1 5.6 10.0 14.7 4.2 6.6 10.6 2.2 4.6 7.6 2.2 10.4 13.8 4.6 26.9 18.3 5.9 56.2 32.0 10.7 0.3 7.5 2.3 9.5 12.4 2.3 12.0 2.8 0.8 10.6 5.0 0.9 1.3 4.1 0.9

1531.9 18.9 3.9 562.4 28.6 3.8 277.3 40.0 5.1

123.6 11.7 3.7 47.1 7.9 1.8 53.3 11.2 2.6 77.9 14.5 3.5 97.4 19.0 12.4 30.8 9.9 2.2 7.3 4.7 1.9 30.2 7.8 6.5 8.0 9.6 2.6 4.6 6.7 1.9 7.4 11.9 2.4 4.4 7.4 2.2 3.4 4.5 1.5 12.1 8.2 2.6 11.0 6.3 2.1 0.3 8.6 2.7 10.8 14.1 2.6 65.2 15.1 4.1 87.1 40.7 7.1 10.2 33.1 7.2

215.9 2.7 0.6 72.8 3.7 0.5 38.3 5.5 0.7

18.0 1.7 0.5 6.5 1.1 0.3 4.7 1.0 0.2 10.8 2.0 0.5 11.3 2.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 6.4 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 2.5 4.0 0.8 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.7 1.8 0.6 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.2 3.0 3.9 0.7 8.2 1.9 0.5 19.2 8.9 1.6 2.4 7.7 1.7

971.2 12.0 2.5 383.0 19.5 2.6 153.4 22.1 2.8 268.3 7.1 2.2 82.9 7.9 2.5 30.3 5.1 1.2 37.7 7.9 1.8 48.9 9.1 2.2 64.8 12.6 8.3 21.0 6.8 1.5 4.4 2.8 1.2 15.7 4.1 3.4 5.6 6.8 1.8 3.0 4.4 1.3 3.8 6.1 1.2 2.5 4.1 1.2 2.1 2.8 0.9 7.2 4.9 1.6 5.8 3.3 1.1 0.2 6.0 1.9 6.6 8.5 1.6 47.4 11.0 3.0 39.8 18.6 3.2 4.9 16.0 3.5

446.2 5.5 1.1 293.3 14.9 2.0 23.5 3.4 0.4

16.3 1.5 0.5 7.3 1.2 0.3 10.7 2.2 0.5 8.5 1.6 0.4 19.9 3.9 2.5 12.7 4.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 6.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.4 9.4 2.9 1.5 2.0 0.4 31.9 7.4 2.0 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.3

380.1 4.7 1.0 15.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 0.4 0.1

2.9 0.3 0.1 35.6 6.0 1.4 40.4 8.5 2.0 32.1 6.0 1.4 21.3 4.2 2.7 16.2 5.2 1.2 20.6 13.1 5.5 14.4 3.7 3.1 5.5 6.6 1.8 2.8 4.1 1.2 4.7 7.5 1.5 1.3 2.1 0.6 2.1 2.7 0.9 9.7 6.6 2.1 5.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 3.0 0.9 4.4 5.7 1.1 3.1 0.7 0.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1

8120.6

39053.8

1968.1

14657.8

694.0

5458.9

3759.3

11967.3

1054.3

3315.6

594.5

2582.5

475.6

2055.1

537.8

2247.5

513.1

783.3

311.0

1410.0

157.2

376.8

387.8

465.7

82.8

310.8

68.0

239.2

62.5

305.4

59.8

204.3

75.4

229.3

146.9

455.8

175.8

523.8

3.9

12.6

76.9

414.5

430.3

1574.1

214.2

1235.5

30.7

140.4

* Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

Volume 9, Issue 3

58

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

IMPORTS FROM (US$ bn, 2009) OECD *

US

JAPAN

EMU-12

NON JAPAN ASIA

GERMANY

ASEAN-4

CHINA

LATIN AMERICA

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

TOTAL IMPORTS (US$bn)

2010 GDP (nom inal US$ bn)

Origin Economy 1288.5 292.6 455.8 311.1 NON JAPAN ASIA % of total imports 34.3 7.8 12.1 8.3 % of GDP 12.0 2.7 4.2 2.9 483.9 127.1 184.6 101.1 ASEAN-4 % of total imports 34.1 9.0 13.0 7.1 % of GDP 25.7 6.7 9.8 5.4 518.7 102.0 176.3 139.1 CHINA % of total imports 37.2 7.3 12.6 10.0 % of GDP 8.8 1.7 3.0 2.4 98.2 23.3 39.7 24.3 HONG KONG % of total imports 22.6 5.4 9.2 5.6 % of GDP 43.6 10.4 17.6 10.8 42.1 9.4 17.0 7.6 INDONESIA % of total imports 31.0 6.9 12.5 5.6 % of GDP 6.0 1.3 2.4 1.1 173.6 42.7 68.5 29.8 KOREA % of total imports 40.9 10.1 16.2 7.0 % of GDP 17.2 4.2 6.8 3.0 54.7 15.4 19.4 12.3 MALAYSIA % of total imports 28.9 8.1 10.2 6.5 % of GDP 23.0 6.5 8.2 5.1 25.3 7.5 10.7 4.0 PHILIPPINES % of total imports 33.3 9.9 14.1 5.3 % of GDP 13.4 4.0 5.7 2.1 102.5 35.6 24.5 28.8 SINGAPORE % of total imports 33.0 11.5 7.9 9.3 % of GDP 46.0 16.0 11.0 12.9 109.6 25.4 51.9 18.3 TAIWAN % of total imports 43.6 10.1 20.7 7.3 % of GDP 25.5 5.9 12.1 4.2 70.4 10.9 38.3 10.7 THAILAND % of total imports 38.1 5.9 20.8 5.8 % of GDP 22.1 3.4 12.0 3.3 93.5 20.4 9.6 36.3 INDIA % of total imports 26.2 5.7 2.7 10.2 % of GDP 6.1 1.3 0.6 2.4 370.3 239.8 22.9 81.5 LATIN AMERICA % of total imports 56.1 36.3 3.5 12.4 % of GDP 9.3 6.0 0.6 2.0 19.4 8.2 0.9 8.7 ARGENTINA % of total imports 32.8 13.8 1.6 14.8 % of GDP 5.2 2.2 0.3 2.4 84.1 30.0 7.7 35.2 BRAZIL % of total imports 42.1 15.0 3.8 17.6 % of GDP 4.0 1.4 0.4 1.7 22.4 10.2 3.0 6.5 CHILE % of total imports 37.1 17.0 5.0 10.8 % of GDP 11.0 5.0 1.5 3.2 225.6 179.7 10.5 26.3 MEXICO % of total imports 76.1 60.6 3.6 8.9 % of GDP 21.7 17.3 1.0 2.5 18.7 11.7 0.7 4.7 VENEZUELA % of total imports 42.4 26.6 1.5 10.7 % of GDP 6.4 4.0 0.2 1.6 271.5 17.6 8.2 254.7 CENTRAL EUROPE % of total imports 48.0 3.1 1.4 45.0 % of GDP 17.7 1.2 0.5 16.6 69.6 1.6 1.7 66.9 CZECH REPUBLIC % of total imports 55.5 1.3 1.4 53.3 % of GDP 36.2 0.9 0.9 34.8 45.8 1.3 1.9 43.0 HUNGARY % of total imports 52.0 1.5 2.2 48.8 % of GDP 35.5 1.0 1.5 33.4 97.1 2.3 1.3 92.1 POLAND % of total imports 58.3 1.4 0.8 55.3 % of GDP 20.7 0.5 0.3 19.7 59.0 12.3 3.3 52.7 TURKEY % of total imports 31.8 6.6 1.8 28.4 % of GDP 7.9 1.7 0.4 7.1 * Excluding Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Korea, Slovakia, and Turkey

Volume 9, Issue 3

138.6 3.7 1.3 36.8 2.6 2.0 74.4 5.3 1.3 7.4 1.7 3.3 3.0 2.2 0.4 12.2 2.9 1.2 5.9 3.1 2.5 1.5 1.9 0.8 8.9 2.9 4.0 8.3 3.3 1.9 4.7 2.5 1.5 12.4 3.5 0.8 30.0 4.6 0.8 2.9 5.0 0.8 13.8 6.9 0.7 2.4 4.0 1.2 9.9 3.4 1.0 0.9 2.1 0.3 125.5 22.2 8.2 37.1 29.6 19.3 22.4 25.4 17.4 48.4 29.1 10.3 17.5 9.5 2.4

59

439.7 11.7 4.1 637.3 44.9 33.8 313.5 22.5 5.3 282.6 65.2 125.6 70.3 51.8 10.0 134.2 31.6 13.3 109.6 57.9 46.1 35.0 46.0 18.5 136.5 43.9 61.3 84.0 33.4 19.5 62.2 33.7 19.5 99.3 27.9 6.5 125.7 19.1 3.1 10.0 16.9 2.7 49.8 24.9 2.4 13.1 21.7 6.5 48.1 16.2 4.6 4.7 10.6 1.6 71.7 12.7 4.7 14.0 11.1 7.3 13.2 15.0 10.2 14.9 9.0 3.2 29.7 16.0 4.0

172.1 12.3 2.9 47.8 11.0 21.2 29.8 22.0 4.2 23.4 5.5 2.3 57.0 30.1 24.0 13.5 17.8 7.2 21.0 6.7 9.4 25.3 10.1 5.9 16.4 8.9 5.1 33.3 9.3 2.2 34.8 5.3 0.9 1.4 2.3 0.4 11.0 5.5 0.5 3.7 6.2 1.8 18.5 6.2 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 14.8 2.6 1.0 2.9 2.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.4 3.7 2.3 0.8 5.1 2.7 0.7

467.9 12.5 4.4 342.4 24.1 18.2

197.1 45.5 87.6 20.4 15.1 2.9 75.7 17.8 7.5 26.2 13.8 11.0 10.3 13.6 5.5 33.7 10.8 15.1 35.9 14.3 8.3 24.5 13.3 7.7 44.0 12.4 2.9 66.7 10.1 1.7 6.7 11.4 1.8 28.1 14.1 1.3 8.2 13.6 4.0 19.7 6.6 1.9 4.0 9.1 1.4 44.3 7.8 2.9 9.1 7.2 4.7 8.7 9.9 6.7 9.3 5.6 2.0 17.2 9.3 2.3

149.1 4.0 1.4 57.3 4.0 3.0 73.2 5.2 1.2 3.1 0.7 1.4 3.3 2.4 0.5 12.0 2.8 1.2 2.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 3.0 1.0 1.3 39.2 15.6 9.1 3.2 1.7 1.0 8.2 2.3 0.5

23.6 39.9 6.4 27.6 13.8 1.3 14.4 23.9 7.1 9.3 3.1 0.9 15.6 35.2 5.4 5.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 3.0 1.6 0.4

22.3 0.6 0.2 5.6 0.4 0.3 11.7 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1

21.1 16.8 11.0 13.1 14.9 10.2 17.3 10.4 3.7 11.6 6.3 1.6

3755.7

10753.9

1419.7

1885.4

1393.9

5878.3

433.5

225.0

135.7

706.7

424.1

1007.1

189.5

238.0

76.0

188.7

310.9

222.7

251.2

430.6

184.6

318.9

356.3

1538.0

659.9

3993.7

59.1

370.3

199.8

2090.3

60.3

203.3

296.5

1039.1

44.1

290.7

565.6

1531.5

125.4

192.2

88.1

129.0

166.5

468.5

185.5

741.9

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Americas Jan Hatzius~ Dominic Wilson~

1(212)902-0394 1(212)902-5924

US Economics Research Andrew Tilton~ Zach Pandl* Alec Phillips* Jari Stehn* Shuyan Wu^

1(212)357-2619 1(212)902-3393 1(202)637-3746 1(212)357-6224 1(212)902-3053

Asia (cont'd) Japan Portfolio Strategy Research Hiromi Suzuki* 81(3)6437-9955 Tsumugi Akiba* 81(3)6437-9966 Kazunori Tatebe# 81(3)6437-9898 Pan-Asia Strategy Derivatives Research Sam Gellman* 852-2978-1631 Sunil Koul# 852-2978-0924 Jason Lui# 852-2978-6613

Latin America Economics Research Paulo Leme~ 1(305)755-1038 Alberto Ramos~ 1(212)357-5768 Eduardo Cavallo* 1(212)357-5772 Petya Kehayova^ 1(212)934-0199

Bangalore Service Desk Ram Dharmaraj# Saikat Banerjee Ketaki Garg Vishal Vaibhaw

US Portfolio Strategy Research David Kostin~ 1(212)902-6781 Stuart Kaiser* 1(212)357-6308 Amanda Sneider* 1(212)357-9860 Ben Snider^ 1(212)357-1744 Yi Zhang^ 1(212)357-6003

Australia & New Zealand Economics Research Tim Toohey~ 613-9679-1079 Philip Borkin* 649-362-7306 Andrew Boak# 612-9321-8576 David Colosimo# 613-9679-1085

Asia Kathy Matsui~

1(212)934-9678 1(212)934-1928 1(212)934-6319 1(212)934-6319

Europe, Middle East and Africa Peter Oppenheimer~ 44(20)7552-5782 81(3)6437-9950

Asia-Pacific Economics Research Michael Buchanan~ 852-2978-1802 Goohoon Kwon~ 82(2)3788-1775 Enoch Fung* 852-2978-0784 Tushar Poddar* 91(22)6616-9042 Yu Song* 86(10)6627-3111 Mark Tan* 65()6889-2472 Shirla Sum# 852-2978-6634 Professor Song Guoqing 86(10)6627-3021 Yin Zhang^ 86(10)6627-3112 Japan Economics Research Naohiko Baba~ 81(3)6437-9960 Chiwoong Lee* 81(3)6437-9984 Yuriko Tanaka* 81(3)6437-9964 Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy Research Timothy Moe~ 852-2978-1328 Christopher Eoyang~ 81(3)6437-9888 Helen Zhu~ 852-2978-0048 Kinger Lau* 852-2978-1224 Caesar Maasry* 852-2978-7213 Hanfeng Wang* 86(10)6627-3318 Ben Bei# 852-2978-1220 Jeen Kim# 82(2)3788-1726 Richard Tang# 852-2978-0722 Chenjie Liu^ 86(10)6627-3324

European Economics Research Ahmet Akarli~ 44(20)7051-1875 Kevin Daly~ 44(20)7774-5908 Clemens Grafe~ 7(495)645-4198 Dirk Schumacher~ 49(69)7532-1210 Andrew Benito* 44(20)7051-4004 Magdalena Polan* 44(20)7552-5244 Natacha Valla* 33(1)4212-1343 Lasse Holboell Nielsen# 44(20)7774-5205 Marek Raczko# 44(20)7552-0159 Anna Zadornova# 44(20)7774-1163 Antoine Demongeot^ 44(20)7774-1169 Michael Hinds^ 44(20)7774-1137 Adrian Paul^ 44(20)7552-5748 European Portfolio Strategy Research Sharon Bell* 44(20)7552-1341 Gerald Moser* 44(20)7774-5725 Christian Mueller-Glissmann* 44(20)7774-1714 Anders Nielsen* 44(20)7552-3000 Matthieu Walterspiler# 44(20)7552-3403

Global Markets Research Dominic Wilson~ 1(212)902-5924 Francesco Garzarelli~ 44(20)7774-5078 Global Macro Research Kamakshya Trivedi* 44(20)7051-4005 Jose Ursua# 1(212)855-9705 Stacy Carlson^ 1(212)855-0684 Global Credit Strategy Research Charles Himmelberg~ 1(917)343-3218 Kenneth Ho* 852-2978-7468 Lotfi Karoui* 1(917)343-1548 Annie Chu# 1(212)357-5522 Anthony Ip# 852()2978-2676 FX Research Thomas Stolper~ 44(20)7774-5183 Robin Brooks* 1(212)357-8763 Themistoklis Fiotakis* 44(20)7552-2901 Fiona Lake* 852-2978-6088 Fixed Income Research Constantin Burgi^ 44(20)7051-4009 Macro Equity Research Noah Weisberger~ 1(212)357-6261 Alexander Kazan* 1(917)343-4543 Aleksandar Timcenko* 1(212)357-7628 Commodities Research Jeffrey Currie~ 44(20)7774-6112 Energy Samantha Dart* Stefan Wieler# Johan Spetz^

44(20)7552-9350 1(212)357-7486 44(20)7552-5946

Non-Energy Damien Courvalin*

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Commodity Strategy Allison Nathan~ David Greely~

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Administration Linda Britten* Loretta Sunnucks*

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~MD *VP/ED #Associate ^Research Assistant/Analyst Email: firstname.surname@gs.com

Volume 9, Issue 3

60

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Macro and Markets Research Kamakshya Trivedi, Global Markets Economist kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com +44 (0)20 7051 4005 Jose Ursua, Associate Economist Jose.Ursua@gs.com +1 212 855 9705 Constantin Burgi, Research Assistant constantin.burgi@gs.com +44 (0)20 7051 4009 Stacy Carlson, Research Assistant stacy.carlson@gs.com + 1 212 855 0684

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Global Economics Analyst  

Third Quarter 2011 Economies at a Glance with main forecasts Refer to ERWIN on Goldman 360 for additional forecasts and historical data