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Global Economics Analyst Third Quarter 2011

„„ Economies at a Glance with main forecasts „„ Refer to ERWIN on Goldman 360 for additional forecasts and historical data


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Contents World Outlook

1

Main Economic Forecasts

2

Country Reports—Europe cont’ Netherlands ...................................................... 35 Norway ............................................................. 35 Poland ............................................................... 36 Russia ............................................................... 36 Spain ................................................................. 37 Sweden ............................................................. 37 Switzerland ....................................................... 38 Turkey ............................................................... 38 Ukraine ............................................................. 39 United Kingdom ................................................ 39

Summary ................................................................... 2

Interest Rate Forecasts

4

G3, Europe, Americas and Asia ................................ 4 Policy Rate Forecasts ................................................ 5

Exchange Rate Forecasts

6

Dollar Crosses ........................................................... 6 Euro Crosses.............................................................. 7

Monetary and Fiscal Conditions

8

Broad Money Growth ................................................ 8 Budget Balances ....................................................... 9 Government Debt Ratio........................................... 10

Demand and Output

25

CPI Inflation ............................................................. 25 GDP Deflators.......................................................... 26 Commodity Prices.................................................... 27

Country Reports—G3

28

United States .......................................................... 28 Japan....................................................................... 29 Euroland .................................................................. 30

Country Reports—Europe

31

Czech Republic ........................................................ 31 Denmark .................................................................. 31 France ...................................................................... 32 Germany .................................................................. 32 Greece ..................................................................... 33 Hungary ................................................................... 33 Italy.......................................................................... 34 Kazakhstan .............................................................. 34

40

Egypt ................................................................. 40 Israel ................................................................. 40 Nigeria .............................................................. 41 South Africa ...................................................... 41

11

Real GDP ................................................................. 11 Real GDP—Since 2002 and 10-Year Trend ............ 12 Real GDP per Capita %yoy...................................... 13 Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy) .... 14 Nominal GDP—Level .............................................. 15 Nominal GDP ........................................................... 16 Consumer Expenditure ............................................ 17 Fixed Investment ..................................................... 18 Domestic Demand ................................................... 19 Exports of Goods and Services ............................... 20 Imports of Goods and Services ............................... 21 Current Account ...................................................... 22 Industrial Production ............................................... 23 Unemployment Rate................................................ 24

Prices

Country Reports—Africa & Middle East

Asia

42 Australia ........................................................... 42 China ................................................................. 42 Hong Kong ........................................................ 43 India .................................................................. 43 Indonesia .......................................................... 44 Malaysia ........................................................... 44 New Zealand .................................................... 45 Philippines ........................................................ 45 Singapore.......................................................... 46 South Korea ...................................................... 46 Taiwan .............................................................. 47 Thailand ............................................................ 47 Vietnam ............................................................ 48

Latin America and Canada

49

Argentina .......................................................... 49 Brazil ................................................................. 49 Chile .................................................................. 50 Colombia ........................................................... 50 Dominican Republic .......................................... 51 Ecuador ............................................................. 51 Mexico .............................................................. 52 Panama ............................................................. 52 Peru ................................................................... 53 Venezuela ......................................................... 53 Canada .............................................................. 54

Size of the World

55

World Data

56

World Exports ................................................... 56 World Imports ................................................... 58

Note: Forecasts are in bold in tables and after the dotted line in charts. Interest rates are end-period unless otherwise stated. The source for all tables/charts is Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research unless otherwise stated. All regional aggregates reflect GS coverage. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US Dollars based on the ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

World Outlook Still Healthy Global Growth, but Risks Dominate The global economy appears to have slowed from the rapid rates seen in Q1, although growth is still at reasonably healthy levels. But as we move into the second half of the year, the risks to our relatively benign view of the global outlook are now clearly in focus. Our 2011 and 2012 global growth forecasts have come down, and now stand at 4.3% and 4.7%, compared with 4.8% and 4.9% a quarter ago. The most important shift has been in our US growth views: our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are now at 2.3% and 3.0%, from 3.1% and 3.8%. To a significant degree, this reflects a much softer H1 growth outcome than we initially expected. The biggest contributions at the country level outside the US are in China, where our forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are lower than at the start of the year, and in Japan for 2011, where the earthquake has seen us lower our 2011 forecast substantially but raise the 2012 forecast due to the subsequent rebuilding.

much of the recent slowing is transitory. We are beginning to see some of the temporary pressures reverse and we expect growth to pick up in the near term. But as we look into 2011H2 and into 2012, particularly with the chances of more fiscal drag than we originally envisaged, it is harder to be sure that the US can maintain abovetrend growth moving into next year. This has made us more comfortable with our US rate call (we expect shortterm rates to stay low as the Fed remains on hold through 2012), but less comfortable with the cyclical view. The European sovereign crisis is also firmly back in focus. So far, our view that the Euro-zone economy would on average hold up well on German strength and lead to an earlier ECB tightening has served us well. However, the growth divergence between core countries and periphery remains, with peripheral economies stagnating at best. And we are more concerned than we have been for some time that pressure on other European sovereigns could lead to larger stresses. In the UK, official data continue to imply an anaemic recovery in growth. But with inflation at more than twice the MPC’s target, there remains a three-way split on the committee, with some members advocating hikes, others for more QE, and a majority in favour of no change. We forecast a 25bp hike in Q4, although the risks are now almost exclusively skewed towards a later move.

Despite weaker growth, inflation outcomes have in general been higher than we had expected, in large part due to the impact of faster commodity price acceleration earlier in the year on headline inflation rates. But for the US it applies to core inflation rates too. As a result, for the first half of the year, the reality has been less growth and a worse growthinflation trade-off than we had initially foreseen. Reflecting that reality, our forecasts for year-end price levels in major equity markets are lower than they were last December (although still well above current levels), while our forecasts for yields and oil prices are higher.

Beyond Europe, the other central issue is whether tightening and inflation pressures in EM will moderate as we have been forecasting. For several of the large emerging markets, China most importantly, inflation picked up more than we expected going into the year, and policy tightening has remained more intense for longer than we had expected. Here, our conviction remains, and we still expect policy to become less restrictive (although not as loose as in 2010H2). More broadly, we expect commodity price relief to become more visible in inflation and wage outcomes in EM in H2 and we think the risk of an overly rapid EM growth slowdown is overstated.

Since then, three other risks—each of which we had flagged as a central risk to our outlook—have intensified: headwinds to underlying US demand; the Euro-zone sovereign crisis; and Chinese and emerging market (EM) inflation and tightening. How each is resolved is likely to determine much of what happens to the global economy and markets in the second half of the year. The biggest issue probably still relates to where the underlying pace of growth in the US will settle, and how Main Economic Forecasts Real GDP (%)

2010

4 3

2011

5 4

2012

6 5

Consumer Price Inflation (%)

2010

4 3

2011

5 4

2012

World

Latest Previous

5.1 5.1

4.3 4.8

4.7 4.9

World

Latest Previous

3.4 3.3

4.5 4.0

5 3.4 3.2

Advanced Economies

Latest Previous

3.0 3.0

2.1 2.6

2.8 3.1

Advanced Economies

Latest Previous

1.6 1.6

2.9 2.4

2.1 1.7

Emerging Markets

Latest Previous

7.9 7.9

7.0 7.5

6.9 7.2

Emerging Markets

Latest Previous

5.8 5.7

6.6 6.0

5.1 5.0

USA

Latest Previous

2.9 2.9

2.3 3.1

3.0 3.8

USA

Latest Previous

1.6 1.7

3.2 2.5

2.2 1.6

Japan

Latest Previous

4.0 3.9

-0.8 0.7

3.0 2.3

Japan

Latest Previous

-0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.2

0.3 0.2

Euroland

Latest Previous

1.7 1.7

2.1 2.1

1.7 1.9

Euroland

Latest Previous

1.6 1.6

2.7 2.6

2.0 1.9

6

Previous data w ere published in the Global Economics Analyst dated April 15, 2011.

Volume 9, Issue 3

1

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Main Economic Forecasts Summary Real GDP, %chg, yoy G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates BRICS G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.6 -4.1 -6.3

2.9 1.7 4.0

2.3 2.1 -0.8

3.0 1.7 3.0

1.3 -2.8 -2.6 -4.7 -5.2 -3.5 -3.7 -5.3 -1.9 -4.9

2.7 3.2 1.4 3.5 1.2 1.6 -0.1 5.4 2.8 1.4

2.0 2.9 2.1 3.3 1.3 2.3 1.1 4.6 2.1 1.9

4.0 3.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.1 2.6

9.2 -2.7 8.0 4.6 -1.6 1.1 -0.8 0.3 -1.9 -2.3

10.3 7.0 8.5 6.1 7.2 7.6 14.5 6.2 10.9 7.8

9.4 5.2 7.5 6.2 5.4 5.2 5.5 4.3 4.7 3.8

9.2 5.2 7.8 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 4.4 4.9 4.2

-4.0 -6.7 1.6 -7.9 -1.7 -4.8

2.2 1.2 3.8 4.0 2.9 8.9

2.5 2.5 4.3 5.3 3.5 7.5

2.7 2.6 4.3 5.6 4.1 3.5

0.9 -0.6 -1.7 -6.1 -3.2

9.2 7.5 5.2 5.4 -1.5

7.7 4.5 6.6 4.4 4.0

3.2 4.0 5.4 4.5 4.3

5.6 -3.7 -4.0 -0.5 6.5 -1.0 -1.8 3.4 -3.3 -0.6

8.8 2.8 1.8 5.0 9.2 3.0 6.3 7.9 3.0 5.1

7.9 1.9 2.2 4.3 7.8 3.6 5.0 7.0 2.1 4.3

7.9 2.7 2.1 4.7 7.9 3.7 4.3 6.9 2.8 4.7

Consumer Prices, %chg, yoy G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates BRICS G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-0.3 0.3 -1.4

1.6 1.6 -0.7

3.2 2.7 0.7

2.2 2.0 0.3

1.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 2.2

2.8 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.6 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.7 3.3

3.6 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.0 0.6 4.2

3.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.8 2.2

-0.7 0.6 3.8 4.8 0.6 3.2 0.6 2.8 -0.9 -0.9

3.3 2.4 9.6 5.1 1.7 3.8 2.8 3.0 1.0 3.3

4.7 5.3 8.6 6.3 3.7 5.0 4.2 4.2 2.3 4.1

3.0 5.0 5.1 6.4 3.7 5.0 3.3 3.7 2.4 3.8

1.0 4.2 3.5 11.7 7.1 6.3

1.5 4.9 2.6 6.8 4.3 8.6

2.2 3.9 4.5 8.7 4.9 6.5

2.4 4.3 3.3 6.4 6.0 7.7

6.3 4.9 1.5 5.3 28.6

10.5 5.2 1.4 4.2 29.1

9.7 6.6 3.3 3.4 26.6

12.6 6.5 3.5 3.6 21.3

2.5 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 6.2 3.8 0.2 1.7

5.4 1.4 2.0 3.1 4.7 2.7 6.2 5.8 1.6 3.4

6.2 2.7 3.0 4.2 5.6 3.9 6.7 6.6 2.9 4.5

4.2 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.8 3.3 6.5 5.1 2.1 3.4

For India we use WPI not CPI. Asia consists of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

2

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Summary (continued) Current Account, % of GDP G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-2.7 -0.3 2.8

-3.2 -0.4 3.6

-3.1 -0.5 2.0

-3.4 -0.1 1.9

-4.2 -3.0 -1.5 5.6 -2.0 4.9 -5.2 7.0 11.5 -1.7

-2.6 -3.1 -1.8 5.6 -3.5 7.2 -4.6 6.3 14.6 -3.2

-2.8 -2.3 -1.9 4.3 -4.0 9.3 -3.0 6.4 16.1 -1.5

-4.9 -1.7 -1.2 4.1 -4.0 9.0 -2.8 6.5 15.8 -0.6

6.0 8.6 -2.8 2.0 16.5 5.8 19.1 3.9 11.4 8.3

5.2 6.6 -2.6 0.8 11.5 4.2 22.2 2.8 9.3 4.6

4.8 7.4 -3.4 0.3 11.1 3.5 21.6 1.3 8.1 5.1

4.3 8.7 -3.8 0.6 10.8 3.5 22.8 0.5 8.1 4.5

-3.2 0.4 -2.2 4.0 -3.9 -2.1

-3.8 2.1 -3.4 4.7 -2.8 -6.5

-2.8 1.9 -3.9 4.3 -4.0 -8.5

-3.0 0.6 -4.3 2.8 -4.5 -7.0

3.6 -1.6 1.6 -0.7 2.6

0.8 -2.3 1.9 -0.5 6.0

-0.2 -2.3 0.5 -0.5 6.2

-0.1 -2.9 -0.1 -0.6 3.0

-0.7 -0.3 -0.2 4.9 -2.0 -0.4 2.3 -0.4 0.3

-1.0 -0.6 -0.4 4.0 -2.6 -1.1 1.6 -0.5 0.1

-1.2 -0.4 -0.5 3.5 -2.7 -1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.0

-1.3 0.0 -0.6 3.2 -3.2 -1.6 1.0 -0.5 0.0

Gen. Govt. Balance, % of GDP G3 USA Euroland Japan Advanced Economies Australia Canada France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand CEEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela Regional Aggregates G7 EU27 G20 Asia ex Japan Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

2009

2010

2011

2012

-10.3 -6.3 -9.8

-10.1 -6.0 -9.5

-8.9 -4.4 -10.2

-8.6 -3.6 -10.1

-3.3 0.3 -7.5 -3.0 -5.3 -5.4 -11.1 -1.2 0.2 -8.2

-3.7 -1.8 -7.7 -3.5 -5.0 -6.5 -9.2 -0.4 -0.4 -9.4

-1.9 -1.2 -6.3 -2.7 -3.9 -4.7 -6.8 0.6 -0.3 -8.0

-0.3 -0.3 -6.0 -1.6 -3.3 -4.0 -5.6 1.7 -0.2 -5.8

-2.2 1.6 -8.7 -1.6 -6.8 -3.9 -1.7 -1.7 -3.5 -4.0

-1.6 -2.8 -7.6 -2.0 -4.7 -3.5 5.4 -0.4 -3.2 -1.0

-1.3 0.3 -8.1 -2.3 -5.3 -4.0 7.7 0.2 -2.0 -0.9

-1.0 1.5 -7.5 -2.1 -5.1 -2.5 3.5 1.1 -1.0 -0.3

-5.8 -4.5 -7.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.5

-4.7 -4.3 -7.9 -4.0 -4.3 -3.6

-4.1 2.5 -5.5 -0.1 -5.5 -1.0

-3.3 -3.0 -3.5 0.0 -4.9 -2.0

-0.6 -3.3 -4.4 -2.3 -5.5

0.2 -2.6 -0.4 -2.8 -3.3

-0.2 -3.0 2.8 -2.5 -2.4

-1.1 -2.9 2.0 -2.3 -2.4

-8.4 -6.5 -6.4 -3.7 -6.5 -2.8 -3.8 -7.5 -6.0

-8.4 -6.4

-7.6 -4.8 -5.1 -2.7 -3.9 -2.2 -2.6 -6.2 -4.6

-7.0 -3.8 -4.6 – -3.4 -2.2 -2.3 -5.6 -4.1

-6.0 -2.9 -6.6 -2.2 -3.0 -7.4 -5.5

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

3

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Interest Rate Forecasts G3, Europe, Americas and Asia G3 & Key Spreads % US Japan-US Euroland-US

3M 10Y 10Y 10Y

Current* 0.3 2.9 -184 -18

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.3 3.0 3.5 -187 -210 -21 -28

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 3.1 3.8 -192 -215 -24 -28

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.7 0.5 3.3 4.0 -202 -220 -32 -53

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.5 1.2 1.1 3.3 4.0 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.8 3.1 3.2 4.5 4.3 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.3 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 1.4 1.6 3.0 3.0 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.1 5.4 5.5 9.2 9.9

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 1.4 1.6 3.5 4.5 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.8 2.9 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.6 4.5 0.4 1.3 1.7 2.8 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.9 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.5 6.1 6.3 7.3 7.3 5.5 5.5 9.6 10.7

Europe % 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 5Y 3M 5Y 3M 5Y 3M 3M

Euroland UK Denmark Sweden Norway Switzerland Poland Czech Republic Hungary Russia Turkey South Africa

3M 5Y

Current* 1.6 2.8 0.8 3.1 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.4 0.2 1.6 4.6 5.3 1.2 2.8 6.1 7.1 4.7 8.8 5.6 7.4

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.8 3.2 3.8 1.9 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.5 2.6 3.0 4.5 4.0 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.0 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.6 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.9 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.0 4.8 5.5 9.2 9.3 5.7 7.6

5.5 7.7

5.9 7.8

6.0 8.0

6.5 8.1

6.7 8.2

Americas 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 3M 3M

Current* 0.3 2.9 1.2 2.9 9.5 12.3 5.3 4.5

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.3 3.0 3.5 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.5 na 9.6 na 12.8 na 4.5 na 4.5

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 3.1 3.8 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.8 na 9.8 na 13.3 na 4.5 na 4.5

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.7 0.5 3.3 4.0 1.8 2.6 3.2 4.3 na 9.5 na 13.3 na 5.5 na 5.5

3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 10Y 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M 3M

Current* 0.2 1.1 4.9 5.0 2.8 5.0 0.3 7.1 0.9 3.6 3.6 0.4 3.4

3-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.5 3.1 2.7 na 5.8 0.4 0.4 7.0 7.4 0.8 0.9 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.8 0.3 0.4 3.7 3.6

6-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.6 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.8 3.3 2.7 na 6.0 0.5 0.5 5.8 7.6 0.9 1.0 3.9 4.2 3.3 4.0 0.7 0.5 3.7 3.9

12-Month Horizon Forward Forecast 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.8 4.7 5.2 5.1 6.0 3.7 3.8 na 6.3 0.6 0.5 7.1 8.1 0.9 1.2 3.9 4.7 3.6 4.5 0.6 0.6 3.7 4.4

% US Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico

Asia % Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong Indonesia Taiwan Korea Philippines Singapore Thailand

Close 19 July 11, mid-rates for major markets. We are currently using September 2011, December 2011 and June 2012 contracts for 3-month forw ard rates. For more details on our Interest Rate Forecasts please see The FI Monthly Analyst. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

4

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Policy Rate Forecasts Policy Rates (%, eop) 2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

2011 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

G3 USA

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Euroland

1.0

1.0

1.8

2.5

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

Japan

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Czech Republic

1.0

0.8

1.3

1.8

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.8

Hungary

6.3

5.8

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

EMEA

Israel

1.0

2.0

3.8

5.0

2.5

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.5

4.8

5.0

Norway

1.8

2.0

2.8

3.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

Poland

3.5

3.5

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.5

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Russia

6.3

5.0

6.0

7.3

5.3

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.8

7.0

South Africa

7.0

5.5

6.0

8.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Sweden

0.3

1.3

2.8

3.8

1.5

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

Switzerland

0.3

0.3

0.8

2.8

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

Turkey

7.0

6.5

7.3

9.3

6.3

6.3

6.8

7.3

7.8

8.3

8.8

9.3

UK

0.5

0.5

0.8

2.0

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

2.0 13.3

AMERICAS Brazil

8.8

10.8

13.3

13.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Canada

0.3

1.0

1.8

2.5

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

Chile

0.5

3.3

6.0

6.5

4.0

5.3

5.8

6.0

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Colombia

3.5

3.0

5.0

6.0

3.5

4.3

4.5

5.0

5.3

5.3

6.0

6.0

Dominican Republic

4.0

5.0

9.0

9.0

6.0

6.8

8.3

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Mexico

4.5

4.5

4.5

5.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

5.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

Peru

1.3

3.0

4.5

4.5

3.8

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

ASIA Australia

3.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

China

5.3

5.8

6.6

6.6

6.1

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

India

5.0

6.8

8.0

7.5

7.5

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.8

7.5

7.5

Indonesia

6.5

6.5

7.3

8.0

6.8

6.8

7.0

7.3

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.0

Malaysia

2.0

2.8

3.5

3.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

New Zealand

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.8

3.8

Philippines

4.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

4.3

4.5

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.8

6.0

South Korea

2.0

2.5

3.8

4.3

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.3

Taiwan

1.3

1.6

2.3

2.9

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.9

Thailand

1.3

2.0

3.5

4.0

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

Volume 9, Issue 3

5

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Exchange Rate Forecasts Dollar Crosses 3-Month Horizon Current*

Forward

Forecast

6-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

12-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

5-Yr Forecast**

G3 EUR/$

1.41

1.41

1.45

1.41

1.50

1.40

1.55

1.18

$/JPY

79.19

79.14

82.00

79.04

82.00

78.76

86.00

107.93

ÂŁ/$

1.61

1.61

1.61

1.61

1.67

1.61

1.85

1.51

$/NOK

5.53

5.56

5.31

5.60

5.13

5.66

4.90

6.34

$/SEK

6.51

6.55

6.00

6.58

5.73

6.65

5.55

7.09

$/CHF

0.82

0.82

0.85

0.82

0.82

0.82

0.81

1.20

EMEA

$/CZK

17.33

17.34

16.69

17.34

15.90

17.37

15.23

19.39

$/HUF

192.10

194.18

185.52

196.16

180.67

199.52

174.84

241.46

$/PLN

2.84

2.87

2.73

2.89

2.64

2.93

2.54

3.01

$/RUB

28.07

28.34

27.10

28.62

25.90

29.23

25.10

30.00

$/TRY

1.66

1.69

1.65

1.71

1.57

1.77

1.47

2.25

$/ILS

3.43

3.45

3.40

3.47

3.35

3.50

3.20

4.26

$/ZAR

6.99

7.08

7.00

7.18

6.80

7.38

6.45

6.50

Americas $/ARS

4.12

4.23

4.15

4.35

4.25

4.64

4.50

6.00

$/BRL

1.57

1.60

1.50

1.63

1.60

1.70

1.70

2.70

$/C$

0.95

0.95

0.96

0.95

0.94

0.96

0.92

1.13

$/MXN

11.66

11.76

11.55

11.87

11.50

12.10

11.50

12.51

$/CLP

461.83

466.83

460.00

471.60

460.00

481.83

460.00

409.42

$/PEN

2.74

2.75

2.78

2.77

2.80

2.79

2.82

2.96

$/COP

1757.35

1764.20

1750.00

1770.40

1750.00

1786.10

1800.00

2133.93

$/VEF

4.29

na

4.30

na

4.30

na

4.30

7.00

Asia A$/$

1.07

1.06

1.05

1.05

1.06

1.03

1.06

0.85

$/CNY

6.46

6.45

6.37

6.43

6.28

6.40

6.10

5.50

$/HKD

7.80

7.79

7.80

7.79

7.80

7.77

7.80

7.80

$/INR

44.45

45.00

46.00

45.53

46.20

46.53

47.00

56.00

$/KRW

1055.60

1062.10

1040.00

1067.10

1030.00

1074.10

1010.00

975.00

$/MYR

3.00

3.01

2.98

3.02

2.90

3.04

2.85

2.69

NZ$/$

0.86

0.85

0.78

0.84

0.79

0.83

0.80

0.63

$/SGD

1.22

1.22

1.23

1.21

1.21

1.21

1.18

1.15

$/TWD

28.89

28.79

28.00

28.61

27.80

28.30

27.50

26.20

$/THB

29.91

30.10

29.75

30.26

29.50

30.61

29.30

35.83

$/IDR

8535.00

8592.50

8500.00

8680.00

8450.00

8860.00

8350.00

10738.63

$/PHP

42.80

42.94

41.30

43.05

40.80

43.27

40.30

50.00

* Close 19 July 11 **5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch". For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

6

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Euro Crosses 3-Month Horizon Current*

Forward

Forecast

6-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

12-Month Horizon Forward

Forecast

5-Yr Forecast**

G3 EUR/$

1.41

1.41

1.45

1.41

1.50

1.40

1.55

1.18

111.92

111.55

118.90

111.15

123.00

110.32

133.30

127.58

EUR/ÂŁ

0.88

0.88

0.90

0.87

0.90

0.87

0.84

0.78

EUR/NOK

7.81

7.84

7.70

7.87

7.70

7.93

7.60

7.50

EUR/SEK

9.21

9.23

8.70

9.25

8.60

9.31

8.60

8.38

EUR/CHF

1.16

1.16

1.23

1.16

1.23

1.15

1.25

1.42

EUR/JPY EMEA

EUR/CZK

24.49

24.44

24.20

24.39

23.85

24.33

23.60

22.92

EUR/HUF

271.50

273.71

269.00

275.86

271.00

279.46

271.00

285.42

EUR/PLN

4.02

4.04

3.96

4.06

3.96

4.10

3.93

3.56

EUR/RUB

39.67

39.95

39.30

40.26

38.85

40.94

38.91

35.46

EUR/TRY

2.34

2.38

2.39

2.41

2.36

2.48

2.28

2.67

EUR/ILS

4.85

4.87

4.93

4.88

5.03

4.91

4.96

5.04

EUR/ZAR

9.88

9.98

10.15

10.09

10.20

10.34

10.00

7.69

Americas EUR/ARS

5.83

5.96

6.02

6.11

6.38

6.50

6.98

7.09

EUR/BRL

2.21

2.25

2.18

2.29

2.40

2.38

2.64

3.19

EUR/C$

1.34

1.34

1.39

1.34

1.41

1.34

1.43

1.33

EUR/MXN

16.48

16.58

16.75

16.69

17.25

16.95

17.83

14.78

EUR/CLP

652.72

658.03

667.00

663.23

690.00

674.88

713.00

483.95

EUR/PEN

3.87

3.88

4.03

3.89

4.20

3.91

4.37

3.50

EUR/COP

2483.77

2486.81

2537.50

2489.79

2625.00

2501.75

2790.00

2522.41

EUR/VEF

6.07

na

6.24

na

6.45

na

6.67

8.27

Asia EUR/A$

1.32

1.33

1.38

1.34

1.42

1.36

1.46

1.39

EUR/CNY

9.14

9.09

9.24

9.04

9.42

8.96

9.46

6.50

EUR/HKD

11.02

10.98

11.31

10.95

11.70

10.89

12.09

9.22

EUR/INR

62.82

63.43

66.70

64.03

69.30

65.18

72.85

66.19

EUR/KRW

1491.94

1497.13

1508.00

1500.71

1545.00

1504.47

1565.50

1152.50

EUR/MYR

4.24

4.25

4.32

4.25

4.35

4.26

4.42

3.18

EUR/NZD

1.65

1.66

1.86

1.66

1.90

1.68

1.94

1.88

EUR/SGD

1.72

1.71

1.78

1.71

1.82

1.70

1.83

1.36

EUR/TWD

40.83

40.58

40.60

40.23

41.70

39.63

42.63

30.97

EUR/THB

42.27

42.43

43.14

42.55

44.25

42.87

45.42

42.36

EUR/IDR

12063.03

12111.95

12325.00

12207.07

12675.00

12410.02

12942.50

12693.59

EUR/PHP

60.49

60.53

59.89

60.54

61.20

60.60

62.47

59.10

* Close 19 July 11 **5Yr Forecasts have been discussed in Global View point 11/08 "FX Trends During the Soft Patch". For more details on our FX Forecasts please see The Global FX Monthly. For latest forecasts please see ERWIN on Goldman 360.

Volume 9, Issue 3

7

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Monetary and Fiscal Conditions Broad Money Growth % chg

%chg

Broad Money Growth

12

Japan USA World

10

Broad Money Growth

16 Euroland

14

UK

12

8

10 8

6

6 4

4 2

2

0

0 -2

-2 02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

-4

12

Broad Money, % change, yoy

03

04

05

2010

06

07

08

09

10

2011

11

12

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Australia

8.3

5.1

4.1

3.2

5.4

8.0

7.6

Q4 –

Brazil

6.4

20.8

14.0

12.5

16.0

14.7

20.8

24.6

21.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.5

11.5

10.5

10.0

Canada

24.1

-2.9

5.3

6.9

7.5

6.4

5.6

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.8

6.7

7.0

7.0

7.0

Chile

-1.4

11.2

14.0

12.0

4.2

6.4

5.4

11.2

11.3

16.8

13.6

14.0

14.0

15.0

15.0

12.0

China

27.6

19.7

16.0

16.0

22.5

18.5

19.0

19.7

16.6

15.9

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

16.0

Denmark

3.2

9.3

5.6

3.7

2.4

3.5

6.4

5.4

3.7

3.6

3.8

5.6

5.0

4.5

4.1

3.7

Ecuador

10.6

19.0

6.9

-2.7

Euroland

-0.1

1.6

4.2

6.2

-0.1

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.0

2.3

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.2

6.2

6.2

Hong Kong

10.7

7.8

5.0

5.0

9.8

3.3

8.9

7.8

7.3

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

India

17.5

16.1

17.1

17.0

15.2

15.6

19.1

16.1

17.6

17.0

17.1

17.1

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

Indonesia

13.0

15.4

18.0

20.3

10.2

12.8

12.7

15.4

16.1

17.0

17.0

18.0

18.5

19.1

19.7

20.3

Japan

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

Malaysia

9.2

7.0

10.0

9.0

8.7

8.8

8.5

7.0

8.2

9.0

10.0

10.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Mexico

6.5

12.9

7.1

10.7

13.0

12.9

13.2

Peru

5.5

45.3

-2.8

0.7

16.3

20.9

26.5

45.3

32.9

34.6

17.4

-2.8

4.5

1.0

8.8

0.7

Philippines

7.7

10.7

15.0

16.7

9.8

9.6

10.1

10.7

10.6

14.0

15.0

15.0

15.5

15.9

16.3

16.7

Singapore

10.5

8.4

7.0

7.0

8.2

6.9

7.8

8.4

8.6

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

South Africa

5.7

4.3

South Korea

9.4

12.1

9.7

9.6

9.7

8.9

7.1

12.1

9.1

8.5

9.2

9.7

8.2

8.4

8.2

9.6

Sweden

-1.5

9.3

4.6

5.4

2.3

2.7

8.0

9.3

8.8

7.0

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

5.1

5.4

6.0

6.7

5.6

6.7

5.7

7.4

6.7

7.0

6.0

5.5

5.3

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.3

Switzerland Taiwan

5.7

5.3

5.0

5.0

4.0

4.0

4.7

5.3

5.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Thailand

6.8

10.9

7.0

7.0

6.1

7.0

9.9

10.9

13.2

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

11.5

10.6

9.6

8.7

11.2

11.1

10.9

10.6

10.3

10.1

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.1

8.9

8.7

UK USA

7.9

2.3

5.1

4.6

1.8

1.6

2.5

3.2

4.5

6.2

4.9

4.8

4.7

3.7

5.2

5.0

21.2

21.0

29.0

27.0

20.9

17.7

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

25.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

27.0

Advanced Economies

5.5

3.0

4.7

5.1

2.6

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.2

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.9

4.7

5.3

5.3

World

9.1

7.6

7.1

6.5

7.5

8.0

8.0

Venezuela

Definitions: Brazil, M4; Canada, M2; Chile, M3 eop; China, M2; Ecuador, M2; Euroland, M3; Hong Kong, M2; India, M3; Indonesia, M2; Japan, M2; Malaysia, M3; Philippines, M2; Singapore, M3; South Korea, M3; Switzerland, M3; Taiwan, M2; Thailand, M2; UK, M4; USA, M2; Venezuela, M2 eop. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Australia: Currency + all ADI deposits of the private non-ADI sector + non-deposit borrowings from the private sector by AFIs - holdings of currency and bank deposits by RFCs and cash management trusts. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

8

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Budget Balances

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

-3.3

-3.7

-1.9

-0.3

Brazil

-3.3

-2.6

-3.0

-2.9

Canada

0.3

-1.8

-1.2

-0.3

0.0

Chile

-4.4

-0.4

2.8

2.0

-95.1

-85.8

China

-2.2

-1.6

-1.3

-1.0

-10.1

-9.9

-8.6

Colombia

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-2.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Czech Republic

-5.8

-4.7

-4.1

-3.3

-8.5

-15.2

-13.8

-10.9

Denmark

-2.7

-4.8

-4.2

-3.2

Ecuador

-2.2

-1.2

-3.7

-4.0

Ecuador

-4.3

-2.1

-6.0

-6.0

Euroland

-789.6

-742.5

-604.9

-521.0

Euroland

-6.3

-6.0

-4.4

-3.6

France

-198.6

-201.0

-184.6

-184.7

France

-7.5

-7.7

-6.3

-6.0

Germany

-101.6

-117.7

-100.8

-63.1

Germany

-3.0

-3.5

-2.7

-1.6

3.3

-6.6

0.6

4.0

Hong Kong

1.6

-2.8

0.3

1.5

-5.8

-5.7

3.8

-4.9

Hungary

-4.5

-4.3

2.5

-3.0

-120.3

-131.6

-165.4

-169.5

India

-8.7

-7.6

-8.1

-7.5

-8.6

-14.2

-19.0

-20.7

Indonesia

-1.6

-2.0

-2.3

-2.1

Italy

-112.6

-104.0

-90.4

-81.6

Italy

-5.3

-5.0

-3.9

-3.3

Japan

-492.7

-508.7

-571.4

-557.4

Japan

-9.8

-9.5

-10.2

-10.1

Kazakhstan

-2.9

-2.5

-2.9

-1.8

Malaysia

-6.8

-4.7

-5.3

-5.1

Gen Govt Bal, US$bn

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

-32.4

-44.3

-28.1

-4.7

Brazil

-53.1

-53.5

-77.3

-76.2

Canada

5.0

-30.0

-20.0

-5.0

Chile

0.0

0.0

0.0

-108.3

-96.2

Colombia

-6.7

Czech Republic

-0.6

Denmark

China

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia

Kazakhstan Malaysia Mexico

-3.3

-3.6

-5.0

-3.6

-13.2

-11.2

-15.1

-16.2

-2.3

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

-43.0

-51.5

-42.0

-37.9

Peru

-2.1

-0.8

-0.3

0.2

Philippines

-6.3

-7.0

-9.4

Poland

-9.8

-12.4

Russia

-71.3

-58.0

-3.1 -17.4

Netherlands

Singapore South Africa South Korea

Gen Govt Bal, % of GDP

Mexico

-2.3

-2.8

-2.5

-2.3

Netherlands

-5.4

-6.5

-4.7

-4.0

Peru

-1.6

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

-6.5

Philippines

-3.9

-3.5

-4.0

-2.5

-10.6

-7.6

Poland

-7.3

-7.9

-5.5

-3.5

0.0

2.9

Russia

-5.9

-4.0

-0.1

0.0

12.0

20.7

10.6

Singapore

-1.7

5.4

7.7

3.5

-15.7

-23.3

-23.9

South Africa

-6.0

-4.3

-5.5

-4.9

South Korea

-13.8

-4.2

2.7

14.4

-163.5

-132.5

-108.6

-94.8

-4.7

-1.9

3.4

10.5

Sweden

-1.2

-0.4

0.6

1.7

1.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.3

Switzerland

0.2

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

Taiwan

-13.1

-13.6

-10.2

-5.3

Taiwan

-3.5

-3.2

-2.0

-1.0

Thailand

-10.6

-3.1

-3.3

-1.1

Thailand

-4.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.3

Turkey

-33.7

-26.5

-7.9

-18.8

Turkey

-5.5

-3.6

-1.0

-2.0

-174.0

-213.0

-215.6

-169.7

UK

-8.2

-9.4

-8.0

-5.8

-1450.0

-1475.3

-1363.5

-1371.1

-10.3

-10.1

-8.9

-8.6

-4.0

-1.5

-0.5

-0.5

Venezuela

-5.5

-3.3

-2.4

-2.4

-2988.6

-3064.0

-2809.3

-2619.9

Advanced Economies

-7.5

-7.4

-6.2

-5.6

Emerging Markets

-3.8

-3.0

-2.6

-2.3

World

-6.0

-5.5

-4.6

-4.1

Spain Sweden Switzerland

UK USA Venezuela Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

-473.1

-444.2

-441.1

-437.8

-3461.7

-3508.3

-3250.4

-3057.7

Spain

USA

-1.7

-0.4

0.2

1.1

-11.1

-9.2

-6.8

-5.6

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

9

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Government Debt Ratio

Govt Debt Ratio % GDP

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Australia

24.6

21.8

13.0

13.2

21.0

28.7

30.5

30.2

Brazil

46.5

47.3

45.5

38.5

42.8

40.4

39.8

39.0

Canada

71.6

70.3

66.5

71.3

83.4

84.0

7.3

5.3

4.1

5.2

6.1

7.4

7.3

7.2

Chile Colombia

46.4

43.0

40.0

39.5

42.8

43.0

44.0

43.2

Czech Republic

30.4

29.4

28.9

30.0

35.3

38.6

41.0

42.5

Denmark

37.8

32.1

27.5

34.5

41.8

44.5

46.9

48.2

Dominican Republic

20.1

20.6

18.3

24.5

28.3

28.6

31.4

34.8

Euroland

70.1

68.5

66.3

70.0

79.5

85.4

87.6

86.9

France

66.4

63.6

63.8

67.6

78.1

84.1

88.5

93.0

Germany

68.1

67.5

64.8

66.3

73.5

78.3

78.4

76.9

Hungary

61.8

65.7

66.1

72.3

78.4

79.6

73.5

73.1

Indonesia

46.3

46.0

42.5

38.2

34.0

29.8

28.0

27.0

Italy

105.8

106.5

103.6

106.3

116.0

118.8

119.2

118.4

Japan

191.1

190.0

187.6

199.0

214.0

220.0

226.3

229.4

Malaysia

57.6

51.2

48.2

49.9

63.9

49.0

49.0

49.0

Mexico

24.0

24.7

15.3

17.3

29.4

25.6

24.9

23.2

Netherlands

51.8

47.4

45.3

58.2

60.8

65.4

66.8

67.9

New Zealand

23.3

21.4

18.2

17.4

23.4

28.3

35.5

36.2

Peru

37.7

33.0

29.7

24.2

27.3

23.5

22.4

21.4

Philippines

82.2

73.3

63.1

70.0

65.3

58.5

70.0

70.0

Poland

47.1

47.8

45.0

47.1

50.9

55.1

55.2

55.0

Russia

15.8

8.3

6.4

5.3

7.0

7.7

8.4

9.7

Spain

43.0

39.6

36.1

39.8

53.3

60.1

65.9

70.2

South Africa

31.5

28.4

26.0

26.2

31.3

32.1

37.1

41.0

South Korea

30.6

32.2

29.7

29.0

32.5

33.3

32.6

34.8

Sweden

50.4

45.0

40.0

38.3

41.9

39.6

36.7

33.3

Switzerland

28.1

25.2

23.2

22.4

20.7

20.6

20.5

19.9

Taiwan

48.7

46.2

43.7

46.3

51.5

50.6

50.4

48.5

Thailand

46.4

40.4

37.5

38.2

43.9

42.4

42.2

42.1

Turkey

68.5

60.4

61.3

57.3

Ukraine

17.3

15.6

12.6

17.6

32.6

38.9

40.8

39.3 61.9

UK

41.5

42.0

41.6

44.7

52.2

57.7

60.4

Venezuela

32.5

24.0

19.5

14.2

18.4

25.3

24.6

23.5

Advanced Economies

73.4

72.1

70.8

76.2

87.2

93.4

93.3

95.0

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

10

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Demand and Output Real GDP Real GDP, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.9

9.2

7.7

3.2

6.8

11.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

7.1

8.5

5.4

2.3

2.1

3.3

4.9

1.3

2.7

2.0

4.0

2.3

3.2

2.5

2.7

1.0

1.1

2.8

3.2

5.3

4.4

3.4

2.9

Brazil

-0.6

7.5

4.5

4.0

9.3

9.2

6.7

5.0

4.2

4.8

4.1

4.9

3.6

4.1

4.3

4.0

Canada

-2.8

3.2

2.9

3.2

2.1

3.6

3.8

3.3

2.9

2.7

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.3

Chile

-1.7

5.2

6.6

5.4

1.7

6.4

6.9

5.8

9.8

6.0

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.2

China

9.2

10.3

9.4

9.2

11.9

10.3

9.6

9.8

9.7

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.9

9.2

9.3

9.3

Colombia

1.5

4.3

5.5

4.9

4.1

4.7

3.6

4.8

5.1

4.9

6.4

5.7

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

Czech Republic

-4.0

2.2

2.5

2.7

1.2

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.6

Denmark

-5.2

1.7

1.7

2.1

-1.1

2.3

3.3

2.6

1.9

1.5

1.1

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.7

Dominican Republic

3.5

7.8

5.4

5.5

7.5

7.5

7.7

8.3

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.5

Ecuador

0.4

3.6

3.9

3.5

0.4

2.5

4.5

7.0

5.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

Euroland

-4.1

1.7

2.1

1.7

0.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

France

-2.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

1.0

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

2.0 1.9

Germany

-4.7

3.5

3.3

1.8

2.3

3.9

3.9

3.8

4.8

3.1

2.7

2.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

Greece

-2.3

-4.4

-3.8

0.2

-2.9

-3.1

Hong Kong

-2.7

7.0

5.2

5.2

8.0

6.7

6.9

6.4

7.2

4.3

4.5

5.0

4.7

5.8

5.5

5.0

Hungary

2.9

-6.7

1.2

2.5

2.6

-0.8

0.5

2.3

2.6

2.2

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

India

8.0

8.5

7.5

7.8

9.3

8.9

8.3

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.9

7.9

7.6

7.7

Indonesia

4.6

6.1

6.2

6.2

5.6

6.1

5.8

6.9

6.5

6.2 –

6.3 –

6.0 –

6.3 –

6.2 –

6.3 –

6.2 –

Israel

0.8

4.7

4.5

3.5

Italy

-5.2

1.2

1.3

1.4

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.2

Japan

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

5.6

3.1

5.0

2.2

-1.0

-1.6 –

-1.5 –

0.3 –

2.1 –

3.8 –

3.3 –

2.6 –

1.2

7.0

6.5

6.5

Malaysia

Kazakhstan

-1.6

7.2

5.4

5.6

10.1

9.0

5.3

4.8

4.6

5.3

5.7

5.9

6.1

5.4

5.4

5.6

Mexico

-6.1

5.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

7.6

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.3

3.8

4.7

5.0

5.0

4.4

3.8

Netherlands

-3.5

1.6

2.3

2.1

0.5

2.4

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

New Zealand

-2.0

1.7

2.5

3.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.1

1.4

1.7

3.0

4.0

3.9

4.4

4.0

3.3

Nigeria

7.0

7.8

7.0

7.5

Norway

-1.6

0.3

1.6

2.7

0.0

1.1

-1.2

1.2

0.1

1.0

3.4

2.0

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.2

Panama

3.0

7.5

7.8

7.0

6.2

6.5

8.5

8.6

9.7

8.0

7.0

6.5

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

Peru

0.9

8.8

6.4

6.2

6.2

10.0

9.6

9.2

8.8

3.6

6.1

7.2

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.0

Philippines

1.1

7.6

5.2

5.5

8.4

8.9

7.3

6.1

4.9

4.5

5.2

6.1

5.6

5.9

5.4

5.0

Poland

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

3.1

3.6

4.6

3.9

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.4 5.1

Russia

-7.9

4.0

5.3

5.6

3.5

5.0

3.1

4.5

4.1

4.4

6.3

6.4

5.9

5.9

5.5

Singapore

-0.8

14.5

5.5

5.4

16.4

19.4

10.5

12.0

8.3

2.8

5.3

5.9

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.6

South Africa

-1.7

2.9

3.5

4.1

1.4

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

4.1

4.4

4.2

South Korea Spain

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

8.5

7.5

4.4

4.7

4.2

3.7

4.2

5.0

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.6

-3.7

-0.1

1.1

1.9

-1.4

0.0

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.1 3.6

Sweden

-5.3

5.4

4.6

3.1

2.9

4.5

6.6

7.6

6.5

5.3

3.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.3

Switzerland

-1.9

2.8

2.1

2.1

1.8

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.5

2.4

1.9

1.7

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

Taiwan

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

13.6

12.9

10.7

7.1

6.5

4.1

3.9

4.6

4.2

5.5

5.1

4.7

Thailand

-2.3

7.8

3.8

4.2

12.0

9.2

6.6

3.8

3.0

3.7

4.4

4.2

3.4

4.2

4.4

4.8

Turkey

-4.8

8.9

7.5

3.5

12.0

10.3

5.2

9.2

11.0

7.8

9.2

2.8

0.8

2.7

4.0

6.0

UK

-4.9

1.4

1.9

2.6

-0.3

1.6

2.5

1.5

1.7

1.3

1.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.4

2.3

-14.8

4.2

4.3

5.0

4.8

5.5

3.6

3.3

5.3

2.0

6.4

4.8

5.1

2.7

6.7

5.1

Ukraine USA

-2.6

2.9

2.3

3.0

2.4

3.0

3.2

2.8

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.2

3.2

Venezuela

-3.2

-1.5

4.0

4.3

-4.8

-1.7

-0.2

0.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.2

6.0

5.0

2.0

5.5

5.5

8.8

7.2

5.7

5.2

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.9

2.9

Vietnam Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

5.3

6.8

5.6

6.5

5.9

6.3

7.4

7.2

5.4

3.5 5.7

-3.3

3.0

2.1

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

3.4

7.9

7.0

6.9

8.4

8.3

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.7

6.9

6.6

6.5

6.7

6.8

6.7

-0.6

5.1

4.3

4.7

5.2

5.4

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.6

4.6

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

11

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Real GDP – Since 2005 and 10-Year Trend Real GDP, % change, yoy

10 Yr Trend

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

3.1

9.2

8.5

8.7

6.8

0.9

9.2

7.7

3.2

Australia

3.3

3.2

2.5

4.6

2.6

1.3

2.7

2.0

4.0

Brazil

3.4

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

-0.6

7.5

4.5

4.0

Canada

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.2

0.7

-2.8

3.2

2.9

3.2

Chile

3.8

5.6

4.6

4.6

3.7

-1.7

5.2

6.6

5.4

China

9.8

10.4

11.7

13.0

9.6

9.2

10.3

9.4

9.2

Colombia

3.6

4.7

6.7

6.9

3.5

1.5

4.3

5.5

4.9

Czech Republic

4.0

6.4

7.0

6.1

2.3

-4.0

2.2

2.5

2.7

Denmark

1.6

2.4

3.4

1.6

-1.1

-5.2

1.7

1.5

2.2

Dominican Republic

na

9.3

10.7

8.5

5.3

3.5

7.8

5.4

5.5

Ecuador

3.5

5.7

4.8

2.0

7.2

0.4

3.6

3.9

3.5

Euroland

2.1

1.8

3.2

2.8

0.3

-4.1

1.7

2.1

1.7

France

2.1

1.9

2.7

2.2

-0.2

-2.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

Germany

1.5

0.9

3.6

2.8

0.7

-4.7

3.5

3.3

1.8

Greece

3.1

2.3

4.5

4.3

1.3

-2.3

-4.0

-2.6

1.4

Hong Kong

5.2

7.1

7.0

6.4

2.3

-2.7

7.0

5.2

5.2

Hungary

3.5

3.2

3.6

0.8

0.8

-6.7

1.2

2.5

2.6

India

7.1

9.5

9.7

9.0

6.7

8.0

8.5

7.5

7.8

Indonesia

4.7

5.7

5.5

6.3

6.0

4.6

6.1

6.2

6.2

Israel

3.9

4.9

5.7

5.3

4.2

0.8

4.7

4.5

3.5

Italy

1.2

0.8

2.1

1.4

-1.3

-5.2

1.2

1.3

1.4

Japan

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.4

-1.2

-6.3

4.0

-0.8

3.0

Kazakhstan

8.6

9.7

10.7

8.9

3.3

1.2

7.0

6.5

6.5

Malaysia

5.4

5.0

5.8

6.2

4.7

-1.6

7.2

5.4

5.6

Mexico

3.0

3.2

5.2

3.3

1.2

-6.1

5.4

4.4

4.5

Netherlands

2.4

2.2

3.5

3.9

1.8

-3.5

1.6

2.3

2.1

New Zealand

3.3

3.2

1.0

2.8

-0.2

-2.0

1.7

2.5

3.9

Nigeria

5.7

5.4

6.2

7.0

6.0

7.0

7.8

7.0

7.5

Norway

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.7

0.6

-1.6

0.3

1.6

2.7

Panama

5.8

7.2

8.5

12.1

10.1

3.0

7.5

7.8

7.0

Peru

5.0

6.4

7.9

8.9

9.8

0.9

8.8

6.4

6.2

Philippines

4.9

5.0

5.3

7.1

3.8

1.1

7.6

5.2

5.5

Poland

4.2

3.6

6.2

6.8

5.0

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

Russia

6.9

6.4

8.2

8.5

5.2

-7.9

4.0

5.3

5.6

Singapore

5.5

6.6

8.2

7.8

1.8

-0.8

14.5

5.5

5.4

South Africa

3.9

5.3

5.6

5.6

3.6

-1.7

2.9

3.5

4.1

South Korea

5.5

4.2

5.1

5.1

2.3

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

Spain

3.5

3.6

4.0

3.6

0.9

-3.7

-0.1

1.1

1.9

Sweden

2.9

3.2

4.6

3.4

-0.8

-5.3

5.4

4.6

3.1

Switzerland

2.0

2.6

3.6

3.6

1.9

-1.9

2.8

2.1

2.1

Taiwan

3.8

4.1

4.9

5.7

0.7

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

Thailand

4.8

4.5

5.1

4.9

2.5

-2.3

7.8

3.8

4.2

Turkey

3.9

8.4

6.9

4.7

0.7

-4.8

8.9

7.5

3.5

UK

2.6

2.2

2.8

2.7

-0.1

-4.9

1.4

1.9

2.6

Ukraine

6.3

2.7

7.3

7.9

2.3

-14.8

4.2

4.3

5.0

USA Venezuela World

2.6 3.7 3.9

3.1 10.3 4.3

2.7 9.9 5.0

1.9 8.8 5.0

0.0 5.3 2.6

-2.6 -3.2 -0.6

2.9 -1.5 5.1

2.3 4.0 4.3

3.0 4.3 4.7

Trend defined as the geometric average of annual Real GDP growth rates for the past 10 years (1998-2007). Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Volume 9, Issue 3

12

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Real GDP per Capita %yoy 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

8.0

7.3

7.5

5.6

Australia

1.8

1.0

2.8

0.6

-0.2

8.0

6.5

3.0

-0.9

0.9

1.1

Brazil

1.8

2.6

4.7

3.1

3.8

-1.9

6.1

3.2

Canada

2.0

1.4

3.7

1.6

-0.5

-3.9

2.0

1.8

Chile

4.4

2.2

2.8

3.5

2.6

-2.6

4.2

5.5

China

4.3

9.7

11.1

12.4

9.0

8.7

9.9

8.9

8.7

Colombia

3.4

5.4

5.6

2.3

0.3

3.1

3.8

3.2

Czech Republic

6.5

6.2

5.6

1.3

-4.1

2.2

2.5

2.7

Denmark

2.2

3.1

1.2

-1.6

-5.8

1.3

1.4

1.8

Ecuador

4.2

3.2

0.6

5.7

-1.1

2.1

2.5

2.1

Egypt

2.4

4.4

1.7

5.0

-0.8

3.9

-1.0

1.0

Euroland

1.1

2.7

2.2

-0.3

-4.6

1.4

1.6

1.2

France

1.1

1.9

1.6

-0.8

-3.2

0.9

1.5

1.1

Germany

1.0

3.7

2.9

1.0

-4.4

3.6

3.5

2.0

Greece

1.9

4.8

3.8

0.6

-2.7

-4.8

-4.1

-0.2

Hong Kong

8.4

5.9

5.8

1.7

-3.3

5.9

4.5

4.5

Hungary

3.4

3.8

1.0

1.1

-6.5

1.4

2.5

2.6

India

8.4

8.1

7.5

5.4

6.5

4.6

5.9

6.2

Indonesia

4.0

4.2

4.9

4.7

3.3

4.8

4.9

4.9

Israel

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.4

-1.6

3.3

1.8

0.9

Italy

-0.2

1.6

0.7

-2.1

-5.9

0.8

0.6

0.8

Japan

1.9

2.0

2.4

-1.1

-6.1

4.1

-0.6

3.2

Kazakhstan

8.7

9.4

7.7

1.9

-0.2

5.5

4.9

5.0

Malaysia

2.9

3.8

3.9

3.6

-2.6

6.1

4.4

4.6

Mexico

2.3

4.2

2.3

0.3

-6.9

4.6

3.5

3.7

Netherlands

1.9

3.3

3.8

1.5

-4.0

1.1

2.0

1.8

New Zealand

2.0

-0.2

1.8

-1.0

-3.3

0.7

1.6

3.2

Nigeria

2.6

3.4

4.1

3.1

4.1

4.9

4.1

4.6

Norway

1.1

0.8

1.6

-0.8

-2.7

-0.1

0.6

1.9

Panama

5.3

6.7

10.3

8.3

1.4

5.8

6.2

5.4

Peru

5.1

6.5

7.5

8.4

-0.4

7.4

5.0

4.8

Philippines

3.0

3.4

5.2

1.8

-0.9

5.5

3.2

3.3

Poland

3.6

6.2

6.9

5.0

1.6

3.8

4.3

4.3

Russia

7.4

8.7

8.7

5.3

-7.9

4.0

5.1

5.4

Singapore

1.8

8.2

3.1

-2.4

-4.6

10.1

1.4

1.3

South Africa

4.1

4.4

4.4

2.4

-2.8

1.8

2.4

2.9

South Korea

4.2

4.7

4.7

2.1

0.3

6.2

4.3

4.4

Spain

1.9

2.3

1.9

-0.9

-4.9

-0.5

-0.2

0.6

Sweden

2.7

3.8

2.6

-1.6

-6.1

4.5

4.4

2.6

Switzerland

1.9

3.0

3.0

0.8

-4.4

2.3

1.5

1.5

Taiwan

3.7

4.4

5.2

0.7

-1.9

10.9

4.7

4.9

Thailand

3.4

5.3

9.4

1.9

-2.5

7.1

3.3

3.9

Turkey

7.1

5.6

3.5

-0.5

-6.1

7.5

6.1

2.1

UK

1.5

2.2

2.0

-0.7

-5.5

0.7

1.2

1.9

Ukraine

3.5

8.0

8.5

2.8

-14.5

4.7

4.8

5.5

USA

2.1

1.7

1.0

-1.0

-3.5

2.0

1.5

1.6

Venezuela

8.2

8.2

7.2

3.8

-4.6

-2.9

2.5

2.8

Vietnam

7.0

6.8

7.2

5.0

5.5

5.3

4.3

5.1

Real GDP per Capita, % change, yoy

Volume 9, Issue 3

13

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP per Capita USD (Level and %yoy) Nominal GDP per Capita in USD

2009

2010

2011

2012

Nominal GDP per Capita, %change, yoy

2009

2010

2011

2012 16.9

Argentina

7595

9012

10567

10895

Argentina

9.7

24.6

23.7

Australia

45000

55107

66181

68531

Australia

-1.4

5.5

5.7

4.9

8389

10697

12990

13193

Brazil

3.7

13.9

11.6

10.2 4.7

Brazil Canada

38478

46046

49313

52596

Canada

-5.7

5.0

5.3

Chile

9531

11908

14260

15387

Chile

1.6

13.3

8.1

7.4

China

3739

4398

5275

6265

China

9.8

17.7

20.0

18.7

Colombia

Colombia

5283

6351

7099

7351

18433

18592

21748

23460

Denmark

7551

7654

7951

Ecuador

3716

4059

Egypt

2262

Euroland

4.5

6.6

7.8

6.3

Czech Republic

-1.7

1.0

4.3

4.5

8274

Denmark

-5.5

4.8

3.9

4.1

4306

4549

Ecuador

-5.4

9.2

6.1

5.7

2704

3255

3192

Euroland

-3.6

2.3

3.1

2.3

37958

37571

41810

44098

France

-2.7

1.7

3.0

2.0

France

42149

41465

46086

48466

Germany

-3.1

4.2

4.6

4.2

Germany

40809

41161

46478

49926

Greece

-1.5

-2.5

-2.6

0.8

Greece

20807

20295

19759

19908

Hong Kong

-3.4

6.4

8.9

9.6

Hong Kong

29772

31690

34517

37833

Hungary

-2.4

4.3

7.1

4.8

Hungary

13080

13373

15216

16355

India

13.1

20.6

16.1

9.0

Czech Republic

India

1194

1440

1673

1825

Indonesia

5.4

29.1

Indonesia

2339

3020

17.9

14.7

3559

4085

Israel

3.3

4.4

Israel

26051

28642

3.8

3.5

32155

35568

Italy

35267

34590

Italy

-3.8

1.4

38336

40723

2.7

3.1

Japan

39316

42134

43173

44487

Japan

-6.5

1.9

-1.0

3.4

Malaysia

6928

8392

9909

11393

-14.3

21.7

18.1

15.4

Mexico

8179

9546

11083

12026

Netherlands

48313

47869

53647

57420

New Zealand

31147

34456

37251

38590

Norway

74369

85392

105399

116720

Panama

7197

7753

8407

9123

Peru

4335

5186

5655

6028

Philippines Poland Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK USA Venezuela Vietnam Aggregates Advanced Economies Emerging Markets Asia BRICS Central and Eastern Europe G10 G20 EU27 Europe Latin America Volume 9, Issue 3

1748

2123

2480

2666

11350

12472

15316

17329

8707

10510

13337

15649

36660

42827

49519

54321

5820

7296

8375

9556

17088 32054 43053 63478 16409 4150 8527 34428 46417 11605 1080

20738 31160 48727 67808 18623 4989 10076 36451 47807 8339 1186

24051 34129 61195 79074 21524 5682 10759 42732 49376 10329 1332

27244 35844 66232 83061 23621 6334 12665 46219 50980 12533 1477

38274 3517 4425 3238 12909 43026 11423 36215 36760 7694

39510 4164 5012 3873 13794 45399 12227 36207 36861 9090

43009 4904 5646 4582 16491 48680 13491 40396 41206 10538

44998 5534 6246 5269 18271 50445 14412 42812 43691 10974

Malaysia Mexico

-3.2

9.1

7.7

7.4

Netherlands

-4.4

2.4

3.9

3.8

New Zealand

-3.3

0.7

1.6

3.2

Norway

-2.7

-0.1

0.6

1.9

Panama

1.4

5.8

6.2

5.4

Peru

1.7

12.2

7.9

7.1

-5.1

21.4

16.8

7.5

Philippines Poland

-18.7

9.0

8.8

7.6

Russia

-26.0

20.7

30.2

25.9 9.4

Singapore

14

-6.9

16.8

15.5

South Africa

4.2

10.0

8.3

8.0

South Korea

-10.6

21.6

16.4

13.5

Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK USA Venezuela Vietnam

-4.3 -4.5 -4.1 -5.7 -4.6 1.8 -4.1 -2.6 3.3 3.4

0.5 6.0 1.6 14.0 20.2 11.1 3.6 3.0 -28.1 9.9

1.5 6.2 2.0 15.6 13.9 8.2 5.4 3.3 23.9 12.3

1.9 4.4 3.4 10.2 11.5 21.7 4.9 3.2 21.3 11.0

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP – Level Nominal GDP, US$bn Argentina Australia Brazil

2005 182

2006 213

2007 261

2008 325

2009 307

2010 368

2011 437

2012 451

736

785

955

1056

990

1234

1496

1563

886

1087

1382

1613

1625

2099

2582

2631

1138

1270

1401

1563

1295

1568

1696

1828

Chile

118

147

164

171

161

203

246

268

China

2244

2658

3393

4521

4990

5892

7108

8483

Canada

Colombia

147

163

208

247

238

289

328

346

Czech Republic

125

140

172

221

192

194

227

245

Denmark

35

36

42

47

42

42

44

46

Dominican Republic

34

36

41

46

47

52

55

59

Ecuador

37

42

46

54

52

58

62

66

Egypt

93

108

132

165

189

228

281

281

Euroland

10219

10585

12280

13825

12475

12382

13847

14675

France

2151

2222

2565

2888

2633

2604

2911

3080

Germany

2807

2874

3312

3706

3338

3363

3790

4064

Hong Kong

178

190

207

215

209

225

247

272

Hungary

111

110

138

162

131

133

152

163

India

808

917

1177

1200

1383

1731

2041

2261

Indonesia

285

365

431

508

541

708

845

982

Israel

134

146

168

202

195

218

251

285

Italy

1793

1836

2102

2345

2118

2087

2328

2489

Japan

4602

4332

4342

4746

5013

5363

5484

5637

57

80

105

133

116

146

174

202

Malaysia

131

156

186

222

193

238

283

330

Mexico

849

952

1036

1094

880

1035

1211

1325

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

644

668

778

890

797

793

892

958

New Zealand

111

115

142

106

135

151

165

172

Peru

79

92

107

127

127

154

170

184

Philippines

99

118

147

164

161

200

238

261

Poland

306

333

421

551

433

475

583

660

Russia

766

978

1294

1696

1236

1492

1898

2231

Singapore

117

137

167

193

183

223

267

304

South Africa

247

262

286

278

288

365

423

488

South Korea

792

890

1049

933

834

1014

1181

1340

Spain

1140

1216

1432

1628

1469

1433

1591

1693

Sweden

375

389

462

504

402

459

577

628

Switzerland

375

386

433

508

495

531

623

658

Taiwan

346

366

385

403

377

430

497

548

Thailand

177

207

246

275

264

319

365

408

Turkey

483

529

646

731

614

736

796

950

Ukraine

86

108

142

183

117

140

159

180

2291

2382

2806

2786

2127

2267

2678

2916

12638

13399

14062

14369

14119

14660

15260

15969

144

183

227

311

326

238

298

367

53

61

71

90

93

103

118

132

35021

36400

40104

42951

39812

41769

45542

48201

8211

9721

11996

14541

14311

17230

20660

23531

43232

46121

52100

57493

54123

58998

66201

71732

UK USA Venezuela Vietnam Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

Volume 9, Issue 3

15

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Nominal GDP Nominal GDP, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

10.9

25.9

25.1

17.1

22.6

26.2

25.4

28.9

28.8

25.3

25.9

21.2

16.1

15.9

17.2

19.0

Australia

0.8

7.4

6.6

5.8

2.9

8.6

9.3

8.9

7.4

5.8

6.5

6.7

7.4

6.0

5.1

5.0

Brazil

5.1

15.4

13.0

10.6

15.8

16.9

15.7

13.5

12.5

13.4

12.9

13.3

11.1

10.9

10.6

9.9

Canada

-4.6

6.3

6.4

5.8

5.5

6.8

6.5

6.2

6.0

6.5

6.9

6.0

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.0

China

10.4

18.1

20.6

19.3

17.2

16.9

17.0

20.9

22.3

23.9

19.6

18.3

18.8

19.6

19.6

19.4

Chile

2.6

14.4

9.2

8.5

13.2

16.0

15.6

12.9

11.2

9.2

8.4

8.2

8.7

8.7

8.4

8.4

Colombia

5.7

7.8

9.6

8.1

7.5

8.0

6.1

9.6

10.1

8.6

10.1

9.6

8.2

8.0

8.0

8.0

Czech Republic

-1.6

1.0

4.3

4.5

-0.6

1.2

2.0

1.3

4.6

4.5

4.2

4.1

3.8

4.2

4.7

5.4

Denmark

-4.9

5.2

4.2

4.3

2.4

6.7

6.4

5.4

3.7

Ecuador

-4.0

10.8

7.5

7.1

3.6 –

3.8 –

5.6 –

5.0 –

4.5 –

4.1 –

3.7 –

Euroland

-3.2

2.6

3.6

2.8

1.4

2.9

3.1

3.0

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.1

2.7

2.7

2.8

France

-2.1

2.2

3.6

2.6

1.2

2.2

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.2

2.4

2.4

2.5

Germany

-3.3

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.3

4.7

4.3

4.1

5.2

4.0

4.0

4.6

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

Greece

-1.1

-2.0

-2.3

1.2

-0.5

0.0

Hong Kong

-2.8

7.5

9.7

10.4

8.8

4.3

8.4

7.3

8.5

9.6

11.8

9.8

9.9

11.2

10.5

9.9

Hungary

-2.6

4.1

7.1

4.8

India

14.6

25.2

17.9

10.7

29.5

25.9

25.8

20.0

21.8

21.6

15.0

13.9

10.1

9.7

11.4

11.8

Indonesia

6.7

30.7

19.4

16.2

42.9

31.2

26.2

21.9

20.7

19.3

18.3

19.3

18.6

15.4

16.0

14.9

Italy

-3.1

1.9

3.4

3.7

0.5

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.7

3.3

3.6

3.8

4.1

3.7

3.6

3.5

Japan

-6.6

1.8

-1.2

3.2

2.7

1.1

2.8

0.5

-2.9

-1.9

-1.1

0.7

3.3

4.1

3.1

2.3

Kazakhstan

-13.1

25.9

19.8

16.7

Malaysia

-13.0

22.9

19.3

16.6

25.8

24.2

22.3

19.9

22.8

17.7

17.8

19.0

17.6

16.7

16.2

15.7

Mexico

-2.4

10.0

8.6

8.2

12.0

14.0

11.1

10.0

9.6

8.8

7.9

8.3

8.6

8.7

8.1

7.5

Netherlands

-3.9

3.0

4.2

4.2

0.5

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.0

13.7

9.3

8.5

12.8

14.9

14.0

13.0

13.2

6.2

8.5

9.5

8.4

8.6

8.7

8.3

-3.2

23.8

19.0

9.7

21.4

19.0

20.9

16.4

13.8

22.6

19.4

21.8

13.8

8.5

6.7

6.3

Peru Philippines Poland

-18.7

9.0

8.7

7.5

24.1

9.0

-0.6

3.4

7.7

25.6

23.8

19.1

19.6

16.0

16.3

13.3

Russia

-26.0

20.8

30.4

26.2

30.9

22.7

15.4

17.5

21.8

27.4

30.8

39.0

31.2

27.0

25.2

23.2

-3.2

21.5

20.1

13.8

26.7

24.9

18.6

16.5

22.0

20.5

20.6

17.0

15.7

13.6

13.0

12.6

South Africa

5.4

11.2

9.5

9.2

8.1

11.7

12.1

12.9

11.8

10.0

9.0

7.4

11.8

10.0

9.0

7.4

South Korea

-10.6

21.6

16.4

13.5

38.5

22.9

13.2

12.8

9.9

15.1

21.7

19.5

16.5

15.0

11.9

10.4

Singapore

Spain

-3.1

0.8

2.9

3.3

-0.8

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.6

Sweden

-3.6

6.9

6.3

4.9

3.8

6.1

8.0

9.3

8.8

7.0

5.2

4.6

4.5

4.7

5.1

5.4

Switzerland

-1.6

2.1

2.7

3.9

1.8

3.4

3.4

2.9

2.5

1.6

1.2

2.4

2.9

3.5

4.6

4.6

Taiwan

-5.7

14.0

15.6

10.2

16.8

15.3

13.3

10.5

12.1

16.2

18.1

16.4

12.1

11.8

9.6

7.3 23.1

Turkey

3.2

12.6

9.7

23.3

27.1

13.9

17.1

13.5

15.8

12.7

4.8

7.7

10.0

21.6

24.4

-36.3

19.7

13.7

13.5

UK

-3.5

4.3

6.2

5.6

2.5

5.3

4.8

4.7

4.6

6.2

6.7

7.1

7.2

5.5

5.1

4.9

USA

-1.7

3.8

4.1

4.6

2.8

3.9

4.5

4.2

4.0

4.2

3.9

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.9

4.8

4.8

-27.1

25.6

23.0

-30.2

-27.9

-26.8

-26.3

27.5

26.1

26.7

26.7

22.8

25.1

23.9

20.4

Ukraine

Venezuela Advanced Economies

-3.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.2

4.0

4.8

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.5

Emerging Markets World

4.2 -0.4

17.8 10.2

17.7 10.3

15.5 9.6

19.4 10.9

17.5 10.1

16.5 9.7

16.8 9.5

18.3 10.2

19.0 11.0

16.4 10.0

16.3 10.1

15.2 9.7

15.2 9.6

15.3 9.5

14.9 9.2

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Nominal GDP quarterly path is estimated by our economists as the Chinese government only releases year-to-date data and other data anomalies.

Volume 9, Issue 3

16

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Consumer Expenditure Consumer Expenditure, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

0.5

9.0

9.9

3.2

7.3

8.1

8.9

11.5

11.3

13.0

10.6

5.1

2.2

2.6

3.4

4.3

Australia

1.0

2.8

3.2

3.5

2.2

2.6

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

Brazil

4.2

7.0

5.4

4.3

8.4

6.4

5.9

7.5

5.9

6.0

5.5

4.2

4.3

4.0

4.3

4.5

Canada

0.4

3.3

2.5

2.9

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.2

2.2

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

-2.3

15.7

6.9

4.9

13.6

17.1

19.1

13.0

13.2

5.2

5.3

4.6

5.8

4.3

5.2

4.3

Chile China

9.0

5.9

6.8

7.5

Colombia

0.9

6.7

6.6

5.4

4.0

4.5

9.4

9.0

8.0

7.4

5.3

5.8

5.3

6.1

4.8

5.4

Czech Republic

-0.1

0.1

0.3

2.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.7

1.1

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.8

Denmark

-4.5

2.3

0.5

2.2

2.8

1.9

1.8

2.6

-0.7

0.7

1.1

0.6

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

Ecuador

-0.7

7.7

8.7

4.1

3.4

8.2

9.1

10.1

10.2

6.4

10.3

8.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

Euroland

-1.2

0.8

1.1

1.6

0.4

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

0.2

1.4

1.6

2.1

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.6

Germany

-0.1

0.4

1.8

1.7

-0.7

-0.5

0.9

1.8

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

Greece

-1.8

-4.3

-5.2

1.1

1.4

-4.8

-5.8

-8.2

-10.8

-5.2

-3.3

-1.0

0.3

1.1

1.4

1.6

0.6

5.8

4.9

4.4

7.4

4.1

5.3

8.1

7.6

6.0

4.5

2.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

3.5

-6.9

-2.1

-0.4

1.0

-4.0

-3.8

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-0.2

-0.7

0.3

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

France

Hong Kong Hungary India

7.5

8.6

8.0

8.2

8.9

8.9

8.6

8.0

8.6

8.3

7.7

7.6

8.4

8.5

8.2

7.7

Indonesia

4.9

4.6

5.3

6.0

3.9

5.0

5.2

4.4

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

Israel

1.7

5.0

5.5

4.0

Italy

-1.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

Japan

-1.9

1.8

-1.1

0.9

3.0

1.3

2.5

0.6

-1.0

-1.4

-2.0

-0.7

0.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.7

6.5

6.7

5.5

5.2

7.9

6.7

6.4

6.7

7.0

7.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

5.0

5.0

Mexico

-7.2

5.0

3.8

4.9

4.0

6.8

4.6

4.6

4.9

4.6

4.4

3.8

4.0

4.3

4.6

4.9

Netherlands

-2.6

0.4

0.5

1.9

-0.4

0.2

0.5

1.2

-0.4

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

New Zealand

-0.9

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.6

2.8

2.3

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.1

Norway

0.2

3.6

2.7

3.8

4.9

3.1

3.2

3.1

2.1

3.2

2.8

2.5

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.1

Peru

2.4

6.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.5

6.4

5.6

5.3

5.0

5.8

5.6

5.3

5.0

Malaysia

Philippines

4.1

3.4

5.4

5.9

4.0

1.9

2.4

4.9

4.9

5.0

6.0

5.8

6.0

6.0

5.8

5.8

Poland

2.4

3.0

3.7

4.2

2.1

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.3

Russia

-4.7

3.0

6.8

6.8

-0.5

4.7

5.1

2.7

5.7

6.5

7.1

7.9

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.5

0.2

4.2

5.2

5.7

6.1

5.2

1.5

4.3

5.0

5.5

5.0

5.4

5.4

5.4

6.0

6.0 4.1

Singapore South Africa

-2.0

4.4

4.8

4.0

2.3

4.7

5.5

5.1

5.0

5.2

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.9

4.0

South Korea

0.0

4.1

3.2

3.8

6.6

3.5

3.6

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.8

4.1

3.7

3.4

3.9

Spain

-4.3

1.2

0.1

0.6

-0.3

2.1

1.5

1.6

0.7

-0.8

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.9

Sweden

2.4

-0.4

4.9

2.2

2.3

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.5

1.9

2.8

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

Switzerland

1.4

1.7

1.2

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

Taiwan

1.1

3.7

4.1

4.7

3.0

4.3

4.6

2.7

5.0

4.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

4.4

4.5

Thailand

-1.1

4.8

2.7

3.5

3.9

6.4

5.0

3.9

3.4

1.5

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

Turkey

-2.3

6.6

10.6

3.0

7.5

3.3

6.5

9.0

12.1

11.8

10.5

8.3

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.1

Ukraine

-14.2

7.0

4.6

6.4

-3.2

0.7

-0.2

0.8

0.3

1.3

1.2

0.1

-0.6

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.1

UK USA

-1.2

1.7

2.3

2.6

0.8

1.7

1.8

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.9

2.9

Venezuela

-2.9

-1.9

4.6

6.7

Vietnam Advanced Economies World

3.7 -1.1 0.9

9.4 1.7 3.5

3.8 1.6 3.6

4.6 2.2 4.0

– 1.5 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.9 –

– 1.9 –

– 1.7 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.5 –

– 1.6 –

– 1.9 –

– 2.2 –

– 2.3 –

– 2.4 –

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

17

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Fixed Investment Fixed Investment, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-10.2

21.2

11.1

1.8

13.1

18.9

26.6

24.7

19.5

12.5

8.3

6.7

0.9

0.6

1.9

3.4 6.5

-3.2

5.4

6.3

8.8

6.5

7.7

6.4

1.6

2.6

5.0

8.2

10.1

10.3

10.8

8.3

Brazil

-10.3

21.9

8.2

7.4

28.4

28.1

21.2

12.3

8.8

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

7.5

8.5

Canada

-20.8

7.3

13.7

9.5

-4.3

6.4

11.5

16.6

17.0

15.2

11.9

11.1

10.4

9.7

9.2

8.6

Chile

-15.9

18.8

14.1

13.3

7.2

29.2

18.6

19.9

19.3

16.0

12.0

10.0

15.0

16.0

12.0

10.0

China

23.3

11.8

10.4

10.5

Colombia

-0.8

8.3

7.6

5.9

9.3

6.6

3.9

13.8

8.7

6.0

9.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

6.5

6.0

Czech Republic

-7.9

-3.1

1.1

4.0

-7.7

-4.5

0.0

-0.1

3.8

1.8

-0.3

-0.9

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.6

-14.3

-3.2

-3.5

4.7

-16.1

1.8

-0.3

3.6

-1.6

-6.4

-3.7

-2.1

6.2

5.4

4.2

3.1

Ecuador

-4.3

10.2

8.5

5.0

2.7

9.5

12.8

16.2

10.0

10.0

7.0

7.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Euroland

-11.7

-1.0

3.3

2.6

-5.0

-0.6

0.5

1.3

4.2

2.3

3.0

3.6

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.8

-8.8

-1.4

2.9

2.7

-4.8

-1.9

0.2

1.3

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.4

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.3

-10.0

5.7

8.3

3.0

0.4

7.1

7.8

7.6

12.5

7.3

6.5

7.3

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

Hong Kong

-3.9

8.1

3.6

5.2

8.2

15.8

-0.3

8.6

-1.1

3.0

6.0

6.0

5.0

4.9

5.3

5.7

Hungary

-7.8

-5.6

-2.0

1.0

-6.4

-6.0

-4.6

-5.5

-3.7

-2.8

-1.7

0.4

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1 9.0

Denmark

France Germany

Indonesia

3.3

8.5

8.5

8.6

8.0

8.0

9.2

8.7

7.3

9.3

9.3

8.0

9.0

8.5

8.0

Israel

-5.8

12.6

14.5

6.8

Italy

-12.0

2.3

1.4

3.6

-1.0

3.1

4.6

2.8

1.5

0.8

1.0

2.6

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

Japan

-12.2

0.0

1.2

6.3

-3.8

-0.1

3.5

1.0

-0.8

-0.2

1.3

4.1

7.1

7.2

6.2

4.6

-5.6

9.8

7.9

10.0

5.8

12.9

10.1

10.0

6.5

8.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

11.0

10.0

10.0

Malaysia Mexico

-11.9

2.4

4.8

4.8

-2.7

1.9

3.8

6.4

7.7

7.2

6.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

Netherlands

-10.2

-4.4

8.0

2.1

-10.8

-3.7

-3.1

0.7

10.1

5.0

8.4

8.4

1.2

2.7

2.2

2.1

New Zealand

15.8

-11.9

3.3

6.0

14.5

-2.7

1.6

4.2

10.4

9.0

3.4

7.0

4.6

10.4

14.9

16.7

Norway

-6.9

-7.4

10.1

5.8

-17.1

-3.3

-3.7

-4.9

13.6

5.0

13.3

8.8

7.6

6.5

5.3

3.9

Peru

-9.2

23.2

9.3

10.4

12.7

29.5

27.5

23.2

12.3

5.0

10.2

9.6

11.2

10.5

10.3

9.7 6.5

Philippines

-0.4

19.5

8.9

5.3

19.0

27.1

16.0

16.1

12.0

8.0

10.0

6.0

4.7

4.3

5.5

Poland

-1.0

-0.9

7.4

7.7

-5.1

-0.8

0.4

1.7

6.8

6.7

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.6

Russia

-15.7

4.6

8.1

14.4

-4.4

6.3

5.0

11.5

-0.6

7.5

11.0

14.5

16.5

13.0

14.0

14.0

Singapore

-2.9

5.1

3.3

6.8

11.1

-1.7

5.8

5.7

-9.5

8.6

7.4

6.9

7.3

6.7

6.7

6.7

South Korea

-1.4

7.3

2.6

6.6

12.6

7.4

7.1

3.7

-1.3

1.9

2.9

5.9

13.8

7.1

5.4

2.4

Spain

-16.0

-7.6

-4.3

0.5

-10.5

-6.7

-6.7

-6.1

-5.8

-5.9

-3.4

-1.8

-0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

Sweden

-15.3

5.9

7.7

6.6

-0.6

3.9

9.7

11.1

8.9

8.7

6.8

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

-4.9

3.0

6.9

2.4

3.6

4.5

2.3

1.4

7.4

6.5

6.8

7.0

3.0

2.0

2.2

2.2

-11.0

23.4

5.2

6.2

28.6

32.0

24.6

12.3

9.6

5.0

3.0

4.0

7.7

7.0

5.8

4.8

-9.2

9.4

7.8

6.5

12.1

11.3

7.9

6.4

9.3

5.8

6.5

9.2

7.1

6.3

6.1

6.4

-19.1

29.9

22.1

3.8

16.8

28.4

30.0

42.1

33.6

26.4

25.3

8.4

4.5

3.3

3.3

4.1

Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UK

-15.3

3.6

3.7

9.6

-1.1

2.6

6.2

6.8

0.0

3.3

3.6

8.0

11.7

11.4

8.7

7.0

Ukraine

-46.2

4.9

14.3

25.9

-2.2

-5.7

3.6

-0.2

-6.0

18.7

19.9

18.7

36.5

27.0

23.2

22.3

USA

-18.3

3.9

4.4

7.1

-2.0

5.1

5.3

7.4

6.9

2.9

3.7

4.2

5.4

6.7

7.9

8.2

-8.3

-6.3

5.2

3.0

4.3

10.4

4.1

4.6

-13.7

2.7

4.0

5.9

-1.5

3.4

4.3

4.9

4.6

3.0

3.7

4.8

5.8

6.0

6.1

5.8

Venezuela Vietnam Advanced Economies

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

18

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Domestic Demand Domestic Demand, % change, yoy

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Argentina

-1.2

11.6

10.1

3.0

8.5

11.0

12.6

13.8

12.8

12.0

10.1

6.1

2.4

2.4

3.0

4.0

Australia

-0.1

3.6

4.1

4.8

3.3

4.1

4.3

2.8

3.3

3.6

4.5

5.0

5.0

5.2

4.6

4.3

Brazil

-0.8

10.3

5.6

4.6

11.8

12.6

10.1

6.8

6.8

4.9

5.3

5.3

4.7

4.1

4.5

5.0

Canada

-2.1

4.5

4.4

3.4

3.8

5.0

4.8

4.6

3.8

4.9

4.7

4.3

4.6

3.2

3.1

3.0

Chile

-5.9

16.4

8.6

7.0

12.0

19.9

19.0

14.6

14.6

China

14.1

9.8

8.7

9.0

7.9 –

6.8 –

6.0 –

8.1 –

7.5 –

6.9 –

5.8 –

Colombia

0.1

6.9

6.6

5.2

5.6

7.5

7.7

6.6

7.6

6.5

6.1

6.1

5.4

5.4

4.9

5.2

Czech Republic

-4.2

1.5

0.3

2.4

-1.6

0.9

4.3

2.4

0.4

1.3

-2.2

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.5

3.3

Denmark

-6.0

-0.4

1.7

2.4

-1.7

3.1

2.0

2.0

-0.1

-1.1

0.2

0.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.0

Ecuador

-2.8

9.1

4.5

4.5

4.5

8.8

12.9

10.4

5.8

4.5

4.0

3.6

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.5

Euroland

-3.5

0.9

1.7

1.6

-0.4

1.2

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

France

-2.7

1.2

2.6

2.0

0.2

1.3

2.3

1.1

2.9

2.7

2.2

2.5

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

Germany

-2.1

2.4

2.5

2.0

0.4

3.2

2.3

3.7

3.5

2.0

1.9

2.6

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

0.7

7.0

3.2

4.3

16.8

10.7

-1.6

4.3

0.5

4.9

4.7

2.8

4.6

4.6

4.2

3.8

-10.2

-1.2

1.2

2.0

-3.9

-0.9

0.4

-0.4

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.4

3.5

2.5

1.0

0.9

10.6

8.4

6.6

8.1

11.5

9.8

7.6

5.5

6.7

6.2

6.2

8.2

8.4

8.1

7.5

5.2

5.7

6.1

6.6

5.3

5.1

6.6

5.7

7.5 5.6

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.6

Italy

-4.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.4

2.2

2.2

1.5

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

Japan

-4.7

2.2

0.1

2.5

1.7

1.4

3.7

1.9

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1.2

2.5

3.1

2.5

1.8

Malaysia

-2.4

12.4

6.9

7.0

16.9

17.1

9.8

7.2

10.3

5.1

6.0

6.7

7.5

7.3

5.6

7.6 4.7

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia

Mexico

-8.0

5.1

3.7

4.7

3.9

7.5

4.5

4.5

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.2

4.4

Netherlands

-3.1

0.9

1.9

1.7

-1.1

3.0

0.7

1.0

2.4

-0.2

2.7

2.8

1.2

1.9

1.8

1.8

New Zealand

-3.4

2.6

2.8

4.8

1.1

2.6

2.8

3.9

3.5

2.1

3.2

2.5

3.7

5.0

5.4

5.3

Peru

-2.8

12.8

7.2

6.5

8.5

14.2

15.2

13.2

10.7

4.2

6.9

7.4

6.5

6.7

6.6

6.2

2.8

8.3

6.8

5.7

10.2

8.3

6.2

8.4

8.2

6.1

7.4

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.6

-0.6

4.3

4.5

4.5

2.4

4.6

5.1

5.2

5.2

4.7

4.5

3.7

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.8

Philippines Poland Russia

-6.2

3.2

6.3

7.4

-0.5

4.4

4.3

4.7

3.3

5.6

7.4

9.1

7.6

7.0

7.4

7.7

Singapore

-6.8

7.2

6.2

6.6

8.2

8.6

-1.3

14.1

0.5

5.1

11.1

8.4

6.4

5.9

6.5

7.5 4.1

South Africa

-2.0

4.5

5.1

4.0

0.4

4.8

6.7

6.5

5.3

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.0

3.9

4.0

South Korea

-2.8

6.0

4.2

4.8

9.4

7.8

4.8

2.7

1.6

3.5

4.5

7.0

7.0

4.8

3.8

3.8

Spain

-5.9

-1.1

-0.8

0.5

-2.9

-0.2

-0.7

-0.5

-0.6

-1.9

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.7

0.9

Sweden

-4.6

5.6

4.3

2.6

3.7

5.1

6.3

7.3

5.6

4.9

4.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

0.7

0.9

0.3

2.5

-2.8

1.0

2.2

3.2

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

3.6

2.1

2.1

2.2

Taiwan

-3.6

9.9

3.3

4.7

14.8

10.3

10.2

5.1

3.0

4.1

2.7

3.6

5.2

5.0

4.4

4.2

Thailand

-6.9

10.3

3.4

4.1

19.3

8.4

11.6

3.4

0.6

6.4

3.2

3.3

4.5

2.6

4.6

4.6

Turkey

-5.1

10.6

12.2

2.6

8.6

8.4

10.2

14.8

16.1

14.7

13.2

5.9

2.0

2.3

2.7

3.5

Switzerland

UK

-5.5

2.7

0.4

1.9

1.0

2.9

3.9

2.9

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.8

USA

-3.6

3.2

1.9

2.9

1.9

3.8

4.1

3.2

2.7

1.7

1.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

3.1

3.2

Venezuela

-7.7

-0.5

5.7

6.0

4.1

10.0

3.9

4.6

-3.6

2.8

1.9

2.7

2.0

3.1

3.3

2.8

2.0

Emerging Markets

5.2

8.0

6.8

6.8

1.7 –

1.6 –

2.3 –

2.6 –

2.7 –

2.7 –

2.7 –

World

0.0

5.0

4.0

4.5

Vietnam Advanced Economies

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

19

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Exports of Goods and Services Exports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-6.4

14.6

-0.6

5.1

4.2

18.2

27.8

7.4

7.1

-7.3

-6.0

6.5

8.5

2.7

3.8

5.9

2.8

5.3

1.5

9.4

3.4

9.0

4.2

4.5

-3.4

-1.6

6.1

4.6

15.7

9.3

6.1

7.2

Brazil

-10.2

11.5

10.4

11.5

14.7

7.2

11.3

13.5

4.3

13.5

12.0

11.0

11.0

12.0

12.0

11.0

Canada

-13.8

6.4

5.2

6.2

2.5

9.7

6.5

7.0

6.4

4.0

5.6

5.0

5.1

6.1

6.6

6.8

Chile

-6.4

1.9

5.6

4.3

-5.6

0.6

8.0

5.1

9.5

4.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.5

4.5

China

-17.1

30.3

18.0

18.5

-8.2

2.0

7.6

5.2

-4.9

2.4

2.1

9.1

11.5

4.5

9.5

5.0

5.5

5.0

6.0

4.5

Colombia Denmark

-9.7

3.8

9.1

4.3

-1.8

3.5

6.2

7.7

10.7

9.9

7.8

8.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

Ecuador

-5.9

2.3

2.5

2.5

53.9

33.1

7.3

17.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

Euroland

-13.1

11.1

6.9

4.7

7.4

13.2

12.2

11.5

9.7

6.6

6.0

5.5

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

France

-12.2

9.4

5.6

4.6

5.9

9.8

10.8

10.9

7.8

5.6

4.3

4.7

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.9

Germany

-14.3

14.4

7.7

4.1

8.6

17.9

16.3

14.7

12.8

6.7

6.3

5.4

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

Hong Kong

-10.1

16.8

11.9

11.9

20.7

19.8

19.7

8.4

15.1

9.2

10.6

13.3

11.0

11.6

12.1

12.6

India

-6.8

17.9

17.0

14.0

10.0

10.7

24.8

25.0

17.4

17.2

16.8

16.7

14.4

14.2

13.9

13.6

Indonesia

-9.7

14.9

17.3

10.1

20.0

14.6

9.6

16.1

12.3

21.8

20.2

15.0

16.0

9.3

8.2

8.0

Italy

-18.4

8.9

6.4

5.2

6.2

9.7

9.8

9.7

7.3

6.3

5.3

6.7

6.2

5.7

4.9

4.1

Japan

-23.9

23.9

-0.5

9.3

34.7

30.2

21.2

13.2

6.5

-4.0

-3.8

-0.1

2.7

11.7

12.1

10.7

Malaysia

-10.5

9.9

7.2

9.1

19.1

14.0

6.8

1.7

3.7

7.0

9.0

9.0

8.5

9.0

10.0

9.0

Mexico

-21.2

27.8

13.6

7.1

9.9

26.4

16.6

21.2

8.6

8.6

8.6

8.6

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

Netherlands

-8.1

10.8

5.7

3.2

9.3

12.3

10.9

10.7

6.9

6.3

5.5

4.1

4.1

3.0

2.8

2.9

New Zealand

1.9

2.8

3.0

2.3

6.2

2.2

0.2

2.8

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.7

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.7

Norway

-3.8

-1.7

-1.4

1.9

1.7

-0.5

-3.6

-4.5

-6.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.9

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

Peru

-3.2

2.5

6.2

7.0

0.2

-0.1

7.0

2.7

3.4

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

Philippines

-13.4

21.0

7.2

6.6

18.8

24.0

23.1

16.8

3.3

5.2

7.9

13.0

10.0

6.4

5.3

5.3

Poland

-16.0

20.5

12.1

11.1

18.5

25.1

20.6

17.8

12.6

10.0

12.8

13.2

10.3

10.8

11.1

12.2

Singapore

-8.1

19.2

6.8

8.5

21.7

24.4

19.8

12.1

8.4

5.0

6.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

South Korea

-1.2

14.5

12.1

10.0

16.7

14.5

11.6

15.7

16.8

11.0

10.7

10.4

10.0

10.2

10.0

9.8 9.7

Spain

-11.6

10.3

12.3

9.4

9.4

11.9

9.4

10.5

11.2

12.1

14.0

12.1

9.1

9.3

9.5

Sweden

-13.2

10.6

8.9

6.7

3.0

12.1

13.2

14.0

13.6

8.9

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.7

7.0

7.3

-8.7

10.3

4.4

1.4

11.0

14.6

9.2

6.6

7.2

3.8

3.4

3.3

-0.5

1.6

2.2

2.3

Switzerland

-8.7

25.7

8.0

8.6

39.1

32.9

20.5

15.1

10.9

6.5

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.6

9.3

9.5

Thailand

Taiwan

-12.5

14.7

10.2

9.0

16.6

22.3

11.7

9.5

15.9

5.0

9.0

11.0

8.0

8.0

10.0

10.0

UK

-10.1

5.2

9.2

7.2

1.6

6.5

7.2

5.6

9.3

8.3

9.8

9.5

8.5

7.7

6.4

6.1

-9.5

11.7

8.4

8.4

11.4

14.1

12.7

8.9

8.0

8.2

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.2

8.2

8.5

USA Venezuela

-13.7

-12.9

7.8

9.0

Vietnam

-11.0

20.0

8.2

10.0

Advanced Economies

-11.6

12.6

6.9

7.3

12.6

15.4

12.9

10.1

8.5

6.0

6.5

6.6

6.9

7.5

7.5

7.5

World

-11.2

14.8

9.2

9.3

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

20

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Imports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services, % change, yoy Argentina Australia

2009 -19.0

2010 34.0

2010

2011

2011

2012

13.7

2.9

Q1 30.1

Q2 35.6

Q3 37.4

Q4 32.7

Q1 20.4

2012

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

17.2

12.7

6.6

5.3

4.9

1.9

0.1

-9.0

13.3

11.3

12.1

13.6

17.6

13.4

9.0

9.0

9.7

14.3

12.3

13.6

12.5

10.9

11.5

Brazil

-11.5

36.2

16.9

14.5

39.6

38.9

40.9

27.2

24.0

20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

13.0

14.8

16.0

Canada

-13.4

13.1

6.8

5.4

11.5

17.5

13.5

10.2

9.4

5.8

5.2

6.9

5.9

5.5

5.3

5.0

Chile

-14.6

29.5

10.4

8.2

19.7

35.3

36.8

26.0

20.6

China

8.0 –

6.0 –

10.0 –

9.0 –

8.0 –

6.0 – 6.0

-14.5

31.3

17.8

19.0

9.0 –

Colombia

-9.1

6.3

11.6

6.5

4.2

16.7

23.1

16.2

21.4

12.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.0

Denmark

-12.5

3.9

6.0

4.9

-2.5

6.7

4.6

7.0

8.2

4.5

5.9

5.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

Ecuador

-11.6

16.3

4.2

5.0

19.9

47.2

47.7

36.2

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

Euroland

-11.8

9.3

6.2

4.6

4.2

11.5

10.8

10.9

8.7

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

France

-10.6

8.3

7.3

5.1

2.1

8.5

13.4

9.2

10.7

8.1

4.5

6.2

4.7

5.0

5.5

5.2

Germany

-9.4

12.8

6.2

5.0

4.5

17.5

13.5

16.2

10.5

4.3

4.8

5.4

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.7

Hong Kong

-9.0

17.3

11.3

11.8

26.1

22.2

16.1

7.5

11.8

9.5

11.1

12.7

11.2

11.2

12.0

12.5

-15.0

17.3

21.7

9.8

22.6

18.4

12.2

16.9

15.6

18.0

20.7

31.0

10.4

11.2

8.9

9.1

-2.1

9.2

17.6

14.2

15.5

11.6

0.4

10.3

18.0

17.3

17.0

14.6

14.2

13.7

14.2

9.4

5.9

4.0

4.7

4.9

4.6

4.6

7.1

6.3

8.7

8.7

8.7

8.0

7.4

Indonesia India Italy

-13.8

10.3

6.9

4.7

6.4

9.2

13.0

12.5

18.1 8.6

Japan

-15.3

9.8

7.7

8.2

3.8

14.5

11.5

9.8

8.7

Malaysia

-12.2

15.1

8.8

10.6

27.8

22.6

11.2

3.5

8.4

7.0

9.5

10.0

10.0

11.0

10.5

11.0

Mexico

-22.6

24.7

12.8

7.5

7.0

29.7

13.4

23.4

9.7

9.7

9.7

9.7

11.6

11.6

11.6

11.6

Netherlands

-8.0

10.6

5.7

2.8

7.7

14.0

10.6

10.0

7.2

4.7

6.0

5.0

3.2

2.7

2.5

2.5

New Zealand

-14.9

9.9

7.2

4.3

6.0

8.9

11.3

13.3

7.6

11.2

8.0

2.4

5.8

3.7

3.9

3.9

Norway

-11.6

8.9

14.5

4.5

7.7

12.9

8.4

6.8

16.9

11.0

14.7

15.6

5.4

5.0

4.1

3.6

Peru

-18.6

23.8

10.2

8.5

12.3

24.0

35.3

23.4

13.5

10.0

10.0

8.0

9.0

9.0

8.0

8.0

-1.9

22.5

10.1

7.0

24.2

22.1

22.1

21.9

8.8

8.4

12.0

11.0

10.0

6.0

6.0

6.3

Philippines Poland

-24.5

22.6

11.9

11.5

17.6

26.9

22.8

23.0

13.7

11.7

10.9

11.5

10.2

12.1

11.9

11.6

Singapore

-11.0

16.6

8.0

9.7

16.8

20.3

16.7

12.8

5.6

7.0

9.0

10.2

10.0

8.5

10.0

10.1

-8.0

16.9

12.1

11.7

21.5

18.0

14.7

14.2

10.8

10.5

11.8

15.1

16.5

12.0

10.0

9.0

Spain

-17.8

5.4

5.0

5.0

2.0

9.6

5.0

5.3

5.2

1.6

7.0

6.5

3.9

4.7

5.5

6.0

Sweden

-13.6

12.3

9.0

6.1

5.5

17.5

13.5

12.9

12.6

8.4

7.8

7.5

5.7

6.5

6.1

5.9

-5.4

8.0

1.3

2.0

2.4

12.1

8.9

8.7

4.8

0.4

0.5

-0.4

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.2

Taiwan

-12.8

28.2

6.9

9.3

49.3

34.0

22.3

14.3

6.6

7.1

6.8

7.0

10.2

7.5

9.4

10.3

South Korea

Switzerland Thailand

-21.5

21.5

11.3

9.2

33.3

24.6

21.3

10.5

16.2

10.5

12.0

7.0

7.0

6.4

11.5

11.5

UK

-12.0

8.8

3.2

4.6

5.3

10.0

10.7

9.2

4.2

3.5

3.4

1.8

5.1

4.9

4.3

4.1

USA

-13.8

12.6

4.7

6.7

6.2

17.4

16.1

10.9

9.4

Venezuela

-19.6

-2.9

11.0

11.3

3.3 –

0.6 –

6.0 –

6.0 –

6.4 –

7.1 –

7.4 –

Vietnam

-10.9

18.9

7.6

8.0

Advanced Economies

-12.9

11.8

6.1

6.6

7.5

15.4

13.6

10.9

8.8

5.2

4.2

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.6

World

-11.7

15.2

9.3

9.1

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

21

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Current Account

Current Acc, US$bn

2009

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Argentina

11.1

3.1

-0.9

-0.4

Argentina

3.6

0.8

-0.2

-0.1

Australia

-42.0

-31.7

-42.1

-76.0

Australia

-4.2

-2.6

-2.8

-4.9

Brazil

-25.3

-47.5

-59.0

-75.0

Brazil

-1.6

-2.3

-2.3

-2.9

Canada

-38.3

-49.1

-39.4

-31.3

Canada

-3.0

-3.1

-2.3

-1.7

2.6

3.8

1.1

-0.4

1.6

1.9

0.5

-0.1

297.1

306.2

337.3

363.6

6.0

5.2

4.8

4.3

-5.2

-9.0

-8.0

-8.6

Colombia

-2.2

-3.1

-2.4

-2.5

-3.2

-3.8

-2.8

-3.0

3.6

5.1

5.2

5.9

Chile China Colombia

Current Acc, % GDP

Chile China

Czech Republic

-6.1

-7.4

-6.3

-7.2

Czech Republic

Denmark

11.1

16.0

17.2

20.3

Denmark

Dominican Republic

-2.3

-4.4

-4.9

-3.7

Dominican Republic

-5.0

-8.6

-9.0

-6.2

Ecuador

-0.2

-1.9

-2.3

-2.5

Egypt

-4.4

-1.9

0.3

–

Euroland

-42.9

-48.6

-63.3

France

-39.2

-45.7

Germany

187.8

Greece

Ecuador

-0.4

-3.3

-3.6

-3.8

Egypt

-2.3

-2.1

-3.6

-3.0

-10.0

Euroland

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-56.0

-37.3

France

-1.5

-1.8

-1.9

-1.2

188.1

163.8

167.4

Germany

5.6

5.6

4.3

4.1

-26.2

-23.5

-17.9

-15.4

Greece

-11.2

-10.2

-8.0

-6.8

18.0

14.8

18.3

23.6

Hong Kong

8.6

6.6

7.4

8.7

0.5

2.7

2.9

1.0

Hungary

0.4

2.1

1.9

0.6

-38.7

-44.6

-68.2

-86.5

-2.8

-2.6

-3.4

-3.8

10.6

5.7

2.5

6.1

Indonesia

2.0

0.8

0.3

0.6

7.1

6.4

2.6

1.0

Israel

3.6

2.9

1.0

0.5

Italy

-42.2

-72.2

-93.6

-98.8

Italy

-2.0

-3.5

-4.0

-4.0

Japan

Japan

1.9

Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Israel

141.4

192.2

111.1

104.4

Kazakhstan

-4.4

4.3

8.7

4.3

Malaysia

31.9

27.3

31.5

India

2.8

3.6

2.0

Kazakhstan

-3.8

3.0

5.0

2.1

35.6

Malaysia

16.5

11.5

11.1

10.8 -0.6

Mexico

-6.4

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

Mexico

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

Netherlands

38.8

56.8

82.9

86.3

Netherlands

4.9

7.2

9.3

9.0

New Zealand

-3.2

-5.6

-5.4

-7.1

New Zealand

-2.8

-4.0

-3.5

-4.3

Norway

48.2

53.6

58.0

65.9

Norway

13.4

12.9

11.2

11.4

Peru

0.2

-2.3

-4.3

-6.0

Peru

0.2

-1.5

-2.5

-3.3

Philippines

9.4

8.5

8.2

9.1

Philippines

5.8

4.2

3.5

3.5

-9.5

-16.1

-23.0

-28.3

Poland

-2.2

-3.4

-3.9

-4.3

Poland Russia

49.5

70.6

83.7

68.2

Russia

4.0

4.7

4.3

2.8

Singapore

35.1

49.5

57.8

69.2

Singapore

19.1

22.2

21.6

22.8

South Africa

-11.2

-10.1

-16.7

-21.8

South Africa

-3.9

-2.8

-4.0

-4.5

South Korea

32.8

28.2

15.0

6.8

South Korea

3.9

2.8

1.3

0.5

-75.9

-65.3

-48.4

-47.3

-5.2

-4.6

-3.0

-2.8

Spain Sweden

28.3

29.1

36.7

40.9

Switzerland

41.3

64.6

100.5

103.6

Spain

7.0

6.3

6.4

6.5

Switzerland

Sweden

11.5

14.6

16.1

15.8

11.4

9.3

8.1

8.1

8.3

4.6

5.1

4.5

Turkey

-2.1

-6.5

-8.5

-7.0

Taiwan

42.9

39.9

40.4

44.3

Taiwan

Thailand

21.9

14.8

18.5

18.2

Thailand

Turkey

-13.5

-46.7

-67.7

-66.4

UK

-36.4

-72.1

-39.3

-18.1

UK

-1.7

-3.2

-1.5

-0.6

-1.7

-2.9

-6.6

-11.7

Ukraine

-1.5

-2.1

-4.2

-6.5

-376.6

-470.9

-470.2

-543.2

USA

-2.7

-3.2

-3.1

-3.4

8.6

14.4

18.5

11.0

Venezuela

2.6

6.0

6.2

3.0

-6.1

-3.9

-5.6

-0.7

Vietnam

-6.6

-3.8

-4.9

-0.6

Advanced Economies

Ukraine USA Venezuela Vietnam

Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008.

Volume 9, Issue 3

22

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Emerging Markets

2.3

1.6

1.3

1.0

World

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Industrial Production Industrial Production, % change, yoy 2011

2012

1.4

3.4

Q1 6.2

Q2 7.2

2011 Q3 5.1

Q4 0.0

Q1 -1.3

2012

Australia

2009 -1.6

Canada

-10.7

5.8

4.9

5.4

2.2

7.8

8.0

5.4

5.0

3.9

4.7

5.9

5.0

5.6

5.6

5.5

11.4

15.3

14.6

14.8

19.6

16.0

13.5

13.3

14.4

13.9

15.3

14.8

13.9

15.3

15.0

14.7 3.4

China

2010 4.5

2010

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.4

1.8

4.6

5.2

3.2

2.8

2.4

Denmark

-17.0

2.2

4.7

4.2

-7.4

2.3

7.8

7.0

6.5

3.4

2.0

7.1

5.1

4.5

4.0

Euroland

-14.7

7.4

4.8

3.0

5.1

9.3

7.3

8.1

6.6

4.8

4.4

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.3

France

-12.4

5.0

2.5

1.5

4.4

7.2

4.3

4.0

3.8

2.0

2.3

2.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.2

Germany

-16.4

10.8

7.6

3.0

6.9

12.7

10.7

12.6

12.3

7.7

6.5

4.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.2

5.3

8.2

7.3

7.3

9.6

6.8

8.6

7.7

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.1

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

5.3 –

India

1.3

4.4

5.3

5.3

4.3

4.3

3.7

5.5

5.2

Israel

Indonesia

-6.0

8.0

3.4

3.4

5.3 –

5.3 –

Japan

-21.8

16.6

-2.7

6.1

28.0

21.2

14.0

6.0

-2.5

-6.0

-2.5

0.0

0.7

6.0

9.0

8.5

-7.7

7.5

4.9

11.1

11.1

4.3

4.1

2.6

6.0 –

6.0 –

5.5 –

5.9 –

6.3 –

6.7 – 4.8

Malaysia Mexico

-7.2

4.7

4.1

6.1 –

4.1

6.9

4.8

3.1

5.0 –

Netherlands

-7.4

7.1

1.0

4.1

7.5

10.6

4.7

5.7

0.7

-0.2

2.9

0.8

2.8

4.2

4.5

Norway

-6.4

2.8

4.9

6.5

0.1

4.2

4.0

2.9

2.8

5.0

4.9

6.9

7.6

6.8

6.5

5.4

-11.9

23.2

7.4

11.0

10.0

27.4

20.8

16.2

12.7

5.0

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.6

8.1

8.7

Poland

-3.7

11.1

7.3

6.7

10.2

12.5

11.9

9.8

9.0

7.1

6.4

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.9

Russia

-9.3

6.3

6.1

4.4

9.8

9.7

6.2

6.3

5.3

5.7

7.1

6.1

5.0

4.1

4.7

4.4 9.0

Philippines

-4.2

29.7

8.8

9.0

37.2

45.3

13.7

25.7

13.1

5.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

South Africa

Singapore

-12.7

4.9

4.8

4.5

4.2

8.9

4.5

2.1

4.4

1.2

4.6

4.7

1.8

4.5

4.2

4.6

South Korea

-0.2

14.8

9.1

10.4

25.8

19.5

10.5

6.0

3.4

7.6

9.8

15.4

15.2

10.4

8.4

8.2

Spain

-15.5

0.8

0.7

3.2

-0.1

2.6

0.4

0.4

1.6

-0.9

0.8

1.2

1.3

3.4

4.0

4.3

Sweden

-19.3

8.7

10.6

6.6

2.2

10.1

10.9

11.4

15.8

12.6

8.6

6.0

5.9

5.9

6.9

7.6

Switzerland

-7.9

6.2

8.2

6.4

5.2

8.0

5.4

6.1

7.6

7.5

9.3

8.5

6.0

5.7

6.6

7.0

Taiwan

-8.1

26.9

13.2

18.5

48.8

29.7

18.8

17.7

14.8

10.0

14.0

14.0

16.0

17.6

19.2

20.8

Thailand

-9.7

17.5

9.7

15.1

34.1

23.2

12.1

4.9

1.0

12.0

13.0

13.0

14.0

14.7

15.4

16.1

Turkey

-10.2

13.1

9.7

3.5

17.2

13.8

10.2

11.8

14.3

12.1

10.5

2.7

2.7

2.9

3.7

4.7

UK

-10.0

2.1

1.7

0.3

1.7

3.1

3.3

1.9

Ukraine

-20.5

10.7

6.0

2.9 –

1.1 –

1.9 –

1.9 –

2.8 –

3.2 –

2.9 –

2.9 –

USA

-11.2

5.3

3.7

2.8

1.5

6.5

6.9

6.3

5.5

3.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.2

6.8

14.0

13.3

7.3

13.4

13.0

14.2

15.3

14.2

10.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-12.3

8.1

3.8

4.2

7.9

10.1

8.1

6.8

4.9

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.5

4.1

4.6

4.7

-6.3

8.6

5.7

5.9

9.4

10.0

8.1

7.2

6.2

5.2

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.9

6.2

6.2

Vietnam Advanced Economies World

China: This is based on a much broader survey than the monthly indicator of industrial production, and therefore the annual growth rates based on GDP accounting and those based on monthly survey data often differ significantly. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years.

Volume 9, Issue 3

23

3rd Quarter 2011


Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Analyst

Unemployment Rate %

%

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

9

12

Japan

Euroland

11

USA

10

Advanced Economies

8 7

9 8

6

7 5

6 5

4

4 3

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

Unemployment Rate, % 2010 7.8

2011

2012

6.9

Australia

5.6

5.2

Brazil

6.8

5.3

Canada

8.3

Chile Colombia

01

02

03

2010 2009 8.7

Argentina

3

12

04

05

06

07

08

09

2011

10

11

12

2012

Q2 7.9

Q3 7.5

Q4 7.3

Q1 7.4

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

7.1

Q1 8.3

7.1

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.1

7.0

7.0

4.9

4.5

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.6

5.3

5.6

7.6

7.0

6.2

5.3

6.5

6.1

5.3

7.0

6.7

6.6

5.6

8.0

7.6

7.2

8.2

8.0

8.0

7.7

7.8

6.1 7.5

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.1

9.6

9.0

8.5

8.0

9.0

8.5

8.0

8.3

7.3

6.8

6.5

5.8

7.0

6.5

6.2

5.5

12.0

11.8

10.8

10.0

13.0

12.0

11.5

10.7

12.4

10.6

10.3

10.1

10.6

10.4

10.2

10.0

Czech Republic

8.2

8.9

8.8

8.6

9.3

8.9

8.7

8.9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.5

Denmark

4.8

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.1

5.9

8.1

9.0

5.1 –

5.9

Ecuador

5.7 –

5.8 –

5.6 –

5.5 –

5.3 –

5.2 –

5.0 –

4.9 –

Euroland

9.5

10.1

9.8

9.4

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.0

9.9

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.2

France

9.1

9.3

8.5

7.4

9.5

9.3

9.3

9.2

8.7

8.6

8.4

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.2

6.9

Germany

8.2

7.7

7.0

7.0

8.1

8.0

7.7

7.6

7.4

Greece

9.5

12.6

14.5

15.0

11.0

12.2

7.3 –

7.1 –

6.9 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

6.4 –

Hong Kong

5.2

4.4

3.2

3.2

4.4

4.6

4.2

4.0

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

Hungary

10.0

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.8

11.1

10.9

10.8

11.6

Indonesia

7.9

7.1

7.8

7.6

11.4 –

11.3 –

11.2 –

11.3 –

11.1 –

11.0 –

10.9 –

Italy

7.8

8.4

8.1

8.0

8.5

8.5

8.3

8.4

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.9

Japan

5.0

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

Malaysia

3.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

Netherlands

3.7

4.5

4.1

3.8

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

New Zealand

7.0

6.7

6.5

5.7

6.1

6.9

6.4

6.7

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.7

Norway

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

Philippines

7.3

7.4

7.3

7.0

8.0

6.9

7.1

7.4

7.2

7.0

7.3

7.3

7.5

7.0

7.0

7.0

Poland

8.2

9.6

9.1

8.5

9.8

9.6

9.5

9.6

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4

Singapore

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

South Korea

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.6

18.0

20.1

20.6

20.5

19.4

20.0

20.4

20.5

20.6

20.7

20.7

20.7

20.7

20.6

20.5

20.4

Spain Sweden

8.3

8.4

7.5

6.8

8.7

8.5

8.3

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.6

Switzerland

3.7

3.9

3.0

2.2

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

Taiwan

5.8

4.7

3.5

3.0

5.6

5.2

5.1

4.7

4.4

4.2

3.8

3.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

3.0

Thailand

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.2

1.0

0.7

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.7

UK

7.7

7.9

7.7

7.6

8.0

7.8

7.7

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

USA

9.3

9.6

9.1

8.9

9.7

9.6

9.6

9.6

8.9

Vietnam

4.6

4.4

5.2

6.2

9.1 –