AMU DARYA BASIN
A win-win solution The availability of abundant water resources, combined with the scarcity of fossil fuels, the vulnerability of the energy sector and the policy of reducing dependence on external energy sources are pushing Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to develop their hydropower potential and reactivate projects designed under the Soviet Union, despite the risk that these projects may reduce or modify the availability of water on which downstream users such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, are heavily dependent to irrigate crops. Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic currently have difficulty meeting peak winter demand for domestic energy. In the long term, the projected hydropower plants and dams would generate large quantities of electricity that could meet the rising energy needs of these countries at costs much lower than imported energy and help avoid the energy shortages prevailing during the winter months. Surplus power could also be exported to neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Iran, where electricity is also in short supply and generation costs are 3 to 10 times higher (Linn, 2008a). Major regional transmission lines are under construction or being planned to allow power exports from Tajikistan. At a conference in Dushanbe in June 2008, international water experts suggested that a viable solution for the Rogun (stage I and II) – Nurek and Kambarata – Toktogul systems could provide for upstream schemes operated in energy mode and downstream schemes in irrigation mode, with compensation (or subsidies) for commercial losses of summer water by the downstream countries (and wide use of the potential for exporting electricity in summer). Furthermore, building stage II of the Rogun dam would allow additional releases from Rogun during a period of drought, increasing water availability for downstream urban and agricultural users. With the additional dams benefits to all riparian states could consequently be increased, depending on the operating mode (Wegerich, 2007). Given their part in plans to expand hydropower in the Amu Darya basin and beyond, countries such as Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Iran, Pakistan and India are clearly stakeholders in the energy, water and agricultural nexus. Through their investments in the region, and specifically in energy projects, they can influence which solutions are adopted for the current regionalwater-management problems.
Investing in upstream energy projects could also be an opportunity for downstream countries to assume a decision-making role, if the legal setup is appropriate97 and the environmental security of the region is not jeopardized. The conduit for such a solution could be a negotiated multilateral agreement combined with a joint funding mechanism in which riparian states, neighbouring countries and the private sector would participate as a consortium, which decides on how the combined systems should be operated, and what technical and industrial safety parameters are required. This would ensure that all parties have a voice in management of the system and prevent future hydro-energy projects fuelling tension between riparian states. Mutual trust among riparian states is hindered by the established perception that regional water management is inherently a zero sum game, in which one player’s gains are another’s losses and any negotiated agreements in the future will need to overcome this barrier. Systemic joint environmental impact assessments of planned transboundary pro jects carried out under the auspices of an agreed independent institution would help to improve each country’s situation and relations between states. The cost of completing the Rogun project is estimated at US$1.3 to 3 billion (whereas the Kambarata-1 and -2 dams in Kyrgyzstan, with 2 260 MW joint capacity, is estimated at US$2 billion). Due to the huge investments needed to finance these projects – Rogun will cost about 50-75 per cent of Tajikistan’s Gross National Income – countries will have to attract public and/or private investors from abroad if they want realize them. The Tajik Government accepted an offer by the World Bank to provide technical expertise and an appraisal of environmental impacts, for plans to build the Rogun dam and hydropower plant, with input from an independent panel of international experts. The technical pre-feasibility study and socioenvironmental impact assessment (SEIA) will be carried out in 2010-11. In the meantime Tajikistan will pursue mainly infrastructure rehabilitation works.
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