MarketIndicators Feb13_Layout 1 19/03/2013 15:13 Page 2
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Market Indicators
ARGUS View TRAQPak data shows that February 2013 flight activity levels decreased from January, finishing the month down 2.3% overall. The results by operational category were mostly negative with the exception of fractional activity (up 0.8%) over January. Aircraft category results were also negative for the month with the exception of large cabin aircraft
posting the only month-over-month increase, up 2.8%. Reviewing year-over-year activity (February 2013 vs. February 2012), TRAQPak data indicates an overall decrease of 4.4%. Adjusting the total to account for the 2012 leapyear, TRAQPak saw an overall decrease of 1.0%.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR RESULTS
MONTH-OVER-MONTH RESULTS OPERATIONAL CATEGORIES
0.8%
OPERATIONAL CATEGORIES
AIRCRAFT CATEGORIES UP
UP • Fractional
Results by operational category were mostly negative for the period with the exception of Part 135 activity which posted a year-over-year increase of 5.5%. Looking at the activity by aircraft category, the turboprop segment posted the largest year-overyear decrease, down 9.3%.
• Large Cabin
2.8%
• Part 135
5.5%
DOWN
DOWN
AIRCRAFT CATEGORIES UP
UP • Large Cabin
DOWN
DOWN
• Part 91
1.7%
• Turboprops
5.3%
• Part 91
• Part 135
4.5%
• Small Cabin
1.9%
• Fractional
• Mid-size
1.5%
2.4%
8.0%
• Turboprops
9.3%
10.4%
• Small Cabin
1.7%
• Mid-size
4.1%
/ More from www.argus.aero
Market Indicators - April 2013
JP Morgan View pick-up in orders this year (which, combined with deliveries of new aircraft types, could make 2014 the first year of material delivery growth since 2008.) Used inventories fell 20 bps in January 2013. Used inventory of in-production models was 10.3%, showing some improvement but remaining within the 10.2-10.8% range exhibited throughout 2012. Heavy jet inventories fell 30 bps (a welcome development after the sharp upward trend exhibited in 2H12). Bombardier Challenger 600s may be starting to look better, while inventories of Globals remain near their highs. Medium jets rose 30 bps and Light jets fell 40 bps. “Toddler and pre-K” fleet inventories (0-5 years) fell 20 bps to an estimated 7.7% in December – high, but also the first decline since April 2012. Average asking price declined 2.7% in
/ More from www.jpmorgan.com
Market Indicators - April 2013 126
WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – April 2013
January 2013. After signs of stabilization in 2012, used prices continue to trend down, dropping below $10m on average, a new low in this cycle after remaining in the mid-$10m range for much of last year. Year-over-Year, average asking prices fell 9%. Heavy jet prices fell 4.2% sequentially and Light jet prices fell 0.5%, while Medium jet prices held up, with a 0.6% gain. US flight ops were flattish in December 2012 after showing signs of modest improvement in October and November. For all of 2012, US flight ops grew less than 1%. Sustained improvement should require a more definitive pick-up in activity. European flight ops remain under pressure, starting off the year with a 2.6% year-overyear decline in January 2013 following a 3.4% decline for all of 2012.
www.AvBuyer.com
Aircraft Index see Page 4
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JP Morgan reports mixed data points so far from 2012 Q4 earnings. Demand remains depressed, but there have been a few bright spots in Q4 results and 2013 guidance. ERJ guided to 25-30 large aircraft deliveries this year, representing solid improvement off a slightly better than expected end to 2012. Bombardier’s Q4 bookto-bill of 1.13x (excluding VistaJet) was another positive sign, and JP Morgan expected more colour with Q4 earnings. Not all Q4 news has been positive. Gulfstream’s backlog declined, and Cessna results were largely in line, while a pick-up in Cessna’s deliveries this year is dependent upon the pace of orders. Used market developments were mixed, flight ops growth remains anaemic, and JP Morgan characterizes overall commentary as cautious, although it still sees potential for a