OPIC’s Shadow Claims History
Conclusion OPIC’s published record of claim determinations has its own limitations and distortions, described in the earlier chapter (O’Sullivan 2004). OPIC’s experience is not a general measure of the level of political risk. On the one hand, it may not have been active in problem countries or may not have supported the categories of projects that were most likely to encounter problems, which would tend to understate country risk. On the other hand, multiple claims arising from the same project could overstate country risk. The shadow claims history suffers from both gaps in data and inconsistent data that have become more apparent than ever in the writing and revision of this chapter. For example, it would be interesting to know OPIC’s potential liability for each of the shadow claims, and it would be helpful to have a cumulative shadow claims history organized by year to parallel the cumulative history of claims paid. Unfortunately, those issues were not raised during organization of the data that was available. Nevertheless, trying to construct OPIC’s shadow claims history has been a useful project. Insurers that may have relatively infrequent experience with claims paid but make extensive use of reinsurance probably have systematic reports from which to construct their own shadow claims histories. Near claims—shadow claims—are more than near misses to the balance sheet; they are learning experiences for insurer and insured alike.
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