68
Avoiding Future Disruption of Services
5. When cold-season temperatures are still below snow-versus-rain thresholds, moderate warming can actually intensify snowfalls by increasing the rate of evaporation and thus the concentration of water vapor in the air, setting up perfect conditions for a massive snowfall when the moist air collides with cold air. More detailed explanation of the potential for increased extreme snowfalls and evidence on the increased snows in the Great Lakes region of the United States are provided in Karl, Melillo, and Peterson (2009). 6. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/11/ AR2010021103895.html (accessed June 29, 2010); http://www.wunderground.com/ blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427 (accessed June 29, 2010). 7. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/snow-storm-economics-winter-weather-stimulateeconomy/story?id=9788401&page=3 (accessed June 29, 2010); http://voices .washingtonpost.com/federal-eye/2010/03/eye_opener_snow_days_cost_71m. html (accessed June 29, 2010). 8. Abidin and others (2009); Susandi and others (2007). Susandi PPT. http://www .eepsea.cc-sea.org/pages/ppt/C01_Susandi.pdf. 9. Air Transport World, “Climate Change May Impact Aviation Safety, ICAO warns.” May 17, 2010. Accessed June 5, 2010. http://atwonline.com/eco-aviation/article/ climate-change-may-impact-aviation-safety-icao-warns-0517. 10. For a review of the literature, good starting points are Füssel (2007); Janssen and Ostrom (2006). 11. Average road upgrading cost is estimated to increase by $3,688/km based on the original estimate of $18,173/km. 12. Project appraisal document, Nepal Rural Access Improvement and Decentralization Project (No. 31624-NP). 13. An interim survey of the project indicates that personal mobility increased by more than 20 percent and travel time plunged from 2.6 hours on average to 32 minutes (Project Paper on Nepal Rural Access Improvement and Decentralization Project, 2009 [No. 50766-NP]). 14. JBIC (2007); Ex-Post Evaluation Report on ODA Loan Projects FY2007. 15. World Bank 2010. 16. ESALF is defined by the number of applications of a standard 80kN dual-wheel single axle load that would cause the same amount of damage to a road as one application of the axle load being considered. 17. In many countries, public decision makers still consider climate change to be too longterm to be worthy of interest. Short-term political cycles do not match long-term climate policies, which only entail present costs 18. GFDRR/World Bank. 19. World Bank 2010, 62. 20. For example, see the variables chosen for Ethiopia (World Bank 2010, 30–31). 21. World Bank 2010, 39. 22. For a careful overview of RDM, see Lempert and McCollins (2007); Lempert and Schlessinger (2000). 23. Expected utility theory elaborates on the basic expected value framework by incorporating individual or social preferences (or tolerance) for risk. In a process based on
Turning the Right Corner • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9835-7