138
Climate-Resilient Investment in Transport
Figure 4.2 Cumulative Incremental Transport Investment by Regions and Sectors 500 450
Billions of dollars (2008)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Transport, 2010–20 OECD
Other sectors, 2010–20 Russian Federation
Transport, 2021–30 China
India
Other sectors, 2021–30 Other countries
Source: OECD/IEA 2009b. Note: OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Table 4.3 Average Annual Incremental Adaptation Cost through 2050 World Bank (2010c) Delta-p only NCAR scenario Total Of which, infrastructure Of which, transport Of which, roads
CSIRO scenario
UNFCCC (2007)
$ billion
%
$ billion
%
$ billion
%
89.6 29.5 7.2 6.3
100.0 32.9 8.0 7.0
77.7 13.5 — —
100.0 17.4 — —
28–67 2–41 — —
100.0 — — —
Sources: UNFCCC 2007; World Bank 2010c. Note: — = not available, CSIRO = Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, NCAR = National Center for Atmospheric Research, UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
projections of investment needs by the share of new investment vulnerable to climate change.3 Because estimates of baseline infrastructure needs vary widely, particularly in developing countries, estimated adaptation costs also vary. With global warming of 2° C, total investment in transport adaptation for the world economy is an estimated $28–$100 billion a year (table 4.3). The World Bank’s Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study offers two estimates based the different scenarios of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). Both estimates are higher than that of the UNFCCC (2007), which uses a narrower definition of adaptation needs (box 4.2). Turning the Right Corner • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9835-7