174 The Global HIV Epidemics among Sex Workers
2010 country report for Ukraine was referenced for calibration of the Ukraine model. Model Fitting, Brazil Data collected from national surveilancence and published studies on the HIV epidemics in Brazil to populate input parameters (see Brazil Case Study). Figure 4.2 depicts the fitted Goals model to the median UNAIDS estimations for the prevalence of HIV infection among the adult population; the model was fit to within the 95% confidence intervals around the projected UNAIDS estimates (Malta, Magnanini et al. 2010; UNAIDS 2010). The model was also fit against prevalence estimates for the female sex work (Malta, Magnanini et al. 2010; comparison not shown), before further modeling scenarios were run.
Adult HIV prevalence (percent)
Figure 4.2 Brazil Model: Comparison of Goals Adult HIV Prevalence Estimates to UNAIDS Estimates
0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Goals UNAIDS
Source: Authors.
Model Fitting, Kenya Behavioral and epidemiological data obtained through the case study review of published studies and surveillance reports were used to population the parameters for the Goals model (see Kenya Case Study). The MoT was referenced for missing inputs and to serve as a check while country experts were contacted for any missing data. Figure 4.3 depicts the fitted Goals model to the median UNAIDS estimations for the prevalence of HIV infection among the adult population, fit to within 95% confidence intervals around the projected UNAIDS estimates. The Goals estimates of HIV prevalence among female sex workers was also compared against