Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa
Overview 9
FIGURE O.5
Prevalence of Wasting Relative to GDP per Capita in the Middle East and North Africa, Selected Countries, c. 2009–12
Stunting, by Wealth Quintile, in the Middle East and North Africa, Selected Countries, 2006
TMP
25
IND
20
BGDDJI SDN LKA MLI YEM PAK IDN NPL MDV CAFETH NER BFA MMR STPNGA MAR HTI ZAR SLE 10 AFGGHA KHM SYR ALB GNQ SEN CIV COG AGO GIN GNBBEN LBR NAM AZE CMR GMB KENTJK LAO PHL TKM OMN TGOUGA MRTIRQ EGY GUY ARM THAKAZ MDA RWAZMB PNG 5 BIHSRB GAB LSO SLB MWI MOZ TZA UZB MNE ROM SGP DOM KGZ MNGBTN DZA MKD LBY BLZ BRA BLR COL GEO JAM MEX URY JOR ARG BOL NICHND PRY SWZ SLV PER PAN TUR 0 15
ERI
6
7 8 9 10 11 ln GDP per capita PPP (constant 2005 int. dollar)
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on malnutrition data from UNICEF 2009; GDP per capita data from World Bank 2012b.
Prevalence of stunting among children under age five, %
FIGURE O.4
Wasting prevalence among children under five years, %
8
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Djibouti
Egypt, Arab Rep. Poorest
Iraq
Jordan
2
3
4
Morocco
Syrian Arab Republic
Richest
Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNICEF’s latest available Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, http:// www.childinfo.org/mics.html.
Note: PPP = purchasing power parity.
FIGURE O.6 opment contributes but does not completely explain the incidence of malnutrition, as shown in figure O.4: Djibouti, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen have high malnutrition rates even relative to their development peers. Within countries, malnutrition rates are higher among children in poor households (see figure O.5). In terms of education, older children face higher school dropout rates and are more likely to enter the job market as low-skilled youth. The region has important geographic disparities, with those born in lagging areas of even relatively rich countries at high risk of poverty. The rural poverty rates in Iraq and the Republic of Yemen are twice those of urban areas (see figure O.6). Even middle-income countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia have spatial pockets (such as slums in urban areas and isolated rural areas) where extreme poverty is prevalent (figure O.6); access to basic services, such as antenatal care and clean water, is lacking (figure O.7); and human development indicators are considerably below the national average. For instance, a child in rural Upper Egypt is 3.4 times less likely than a child in urban Lower Egypt to attend primary school. Inequality of opportunities, combined with lack of access to basic services, severely limits the prospects of people who grow up in poor
The Rural-Urban Divide: Poverty Rates in the Middle East and North Africa, Selected Countries, c. 2005–10 Jordan Tunisia Egypt, Arab Rep. Iraq Yemen, Rep. 0
10
20 30 Poverty rate, % Urban Rural
40
50
Source: Authors’ calculations based on the following household surveys: HIECS, Egypt 2009; IHSES, Iraq 2007; HIES, Jordan 2010; HBS, Republic of Yemen 2006; and World Bank (Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network) staff estimates using Tunisia HBS 2005. For full identification and descriptions of the surveys, see appendix A. Note: Poverty rates are based on national poverty lines.