161
Population squared
Population
Lag IMF program
Conflict
Oil exporter
Trade openness
Lag GDP growth
MTPF
MTBF
MTFF
Variable
1.94*** (0.43) 1.65*** (0.54) 3.95*** (0.63) 0.08*** (0.03) 0.01 (0.00) 6.08*** (1.68) −3.04** (1.23) 0.08 (0.44) 0.00 (0.01) 0.00 (0.00)
Pooled OLS (1)
1.46*** (0.44) 2.24*** (0.55) 5.67*** (0.86) 0.11*** (0.03) 0.01 (0.01) 4.37*** (0.96) −2.56** (1.11) 0.25 (0.37) 0.02 (0.04) 0.00 (0.00)
FE (2)
0.09 (0.52) 0.22 (0.70) 2.47** (1.06) 0.08*** (0.02) 0.00 (0.01) 3.52*** (0.97) −2.05** (1.03) 0.49 (0.36) −0.07* (0.04) 0.00 (0.00)
DID (3) 0.46 (0.48) 0.64 (0.66) 2.97*** (0.84) 0.07*** (0.02) 0.00 (0.01) 3.20*** (0.92) −2.00* (1.10) 0.32 (0.38) −0.06 (0.06) 0.00 (0.00)
DID with regional trends (4) 1.16*** (0.37) 1.56*** (0.50) 2.57*** (0.92) −0.03 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 4.08*** (1.03) −1.61** (0.66) −0.25 (0.29) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
1.61*** (0.42) 1.95*** (0.54) 3.83*** (0.99) −0.03 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 4.17*** (1.04) −1.58** (0.65) 0.23 (0.30) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
AB system AB system GMM GMM with IV (5) (6)
Table F.2 MTEF Effects on Fiscal Discipline dependent variable = fiscal balance = central government balance as % of GDP
0.58 (0.44) 0.82 (0.56) 1.82** (0.93) −0.03 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 3.84*** (1.04) −1.60** (0.65) −0.22 (0.30) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
AB system GMM with year effects (7) 0.85** (0.42) 0.99* (0.52) 2.82*** (0.96) −0.03 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 3.89*** (1.04) −1.56** (0.64) −0.20 (0.30) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
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0.86* (0.49) 1.17* (0.60) 3.00** (1.25) −0.01 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 5.09*** (1.18) −1.64* (0.88) −0.41 (0.41) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
AB system GMM AB system GMM with IV and with with IV and with year effects year effects (9) (8)