138
Baffes
Figure 4.2 Production Growth Decomposition into Yield and Area, 2000–04 to 2005–09 60
38%
30
51%
15% 31% 14% 0
13%
16%
13%
–1% –22%
–17% –5%
–30 world
China
India yield
Africa
area
Source: Author’s calculations based on USDA data. Note: Growth decomposition has been calculated as the following: log(Q2005–09/Q2000–04) = log(A2005–09/A2000–04) + log(Y2005–09/Y2000–04), where Q, A, and Y denote production, area, and yield.
of 1.1 million tons. Even at past decade’s low prices of US$1.30 per kilogram, that would have generated an additional US$1.3 billion in export revenues per year. Moreover, if the realignment of cotton prices with other agricultural commodities that began during the second half of 2010 persists, the additional revenue could top US$2.0 billion.6 Although such gains would have required other policies and investments to have taken place as well, they are so large that officials and policymakers in charge of agricultural policies and investment strategies should take notice. Yet, concerns regarding biotechnology have been expressed at high levels of policy-making in many African countries. For example, Uganda’s Cotton Development Organization—the regulatory body of the cotton industry—chose to proceed cautiously, examining the pros and cons of this technology despite the Cotton Research Institute’s repeated emphasis on the need to venture into the area of biotechnology (Baffes 2009). Similarly, Zambia’s cotton development trust attempted to set up the institutional structure and eventually introduce biotech cotton, but the