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LIVING THROUGH CRISES
2011). In 2011, the turbulence of the Arab Spring began to heighten concerns about the impacts on Bangladeshi migrant remittances, as workers returned from Libya and elsewhere in the region. The decline in remittances was somewhat counterbalanced by strong export performance in 2011 (CPD 2011). But in 2011, attention was once again fastened on global food and fuel price volatility. Civil society observers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted pressures on the national economy, including those arising from food and fuel price inflation. Macroeconomic management was under stress because of the budgetary pressures arising from inflation (particularly fuel subsidies), but there were also serious concerns about the direct negative effects of inflation on poverty and food security.1 General inflation reached 8.1 percent by October 2010 compared to 5.1 percent a year earlier, and food inflation was at 9.8 percent in October 2010, nearly double the 5.3 percent 12 months before. Food inflation was higher in rural than in urban areas (9.1 compared to 6.8 percent in October 2010), suggesting particularly strong pressures on the masses of the rural landless poor.2 The overall picture that emerged was that although Bangladesh initially fared better than predicted in the global financial crisis, there were lagged and indirect impacts, particularly on remittances and on nongarment exports. By 2011, the more serious concern was the recurring problem of global commodity price rises and inflation. Because of Bangladesh’s history of political instability and regime overthrow following episodes of acute food insecurity, the authorities tend to regard rapid food price rises as a politically urgent matter, and they put in place or ramped up a number of safety net measures to mitigate the effects. The Community Case Study Research How have these varied and unpredictable effects of global economic shocks since 2008 played out in people’s lives in Bangladesh? In particular, what have they meant for those who were already living in conditions of poverty and vulnerability? The aggregate impacts of these shocks on poverty are only beginning to emerge, and it is too soon to take a firm position on what these shocks will ultimately mean for poverty or wellbeing in the medium term. A small-scale qualitative monitoring exercise involving rounds of research throughout the peak crisis period, in early 2009, 2010, and 2011, however, affords some insights into how these shocks affected the