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CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR
Volcanic regions are spatially concentrated, with about 9 percent of the world’s population living within a 100 kilometer range of a historically active volcano (Small and Naumann 2001). A larger proportion of people live near historically active volcanoes in Southeast Asia and Central America, and most cities exposed are in developing countries (Small and Naumann 2001; Lall and Deichmann 2009). Cities that have long experienced volcanoes report that the most important components of dealing with volcanic activity are (1) early warning and (2) advanced risk assessment, especially for vulnerable communities, facilities, and infrastructure (VSJ and IAVECI 2007). In addition to possible mud and lava flows, volcanoes emit large quantities of ash that can affect a much larger area and population through impacts on agricultural production. Drought
With climate change, dryland cities experience extended droughts that create water scarcity and frequent sandstorms aggravated by poor infrastructure. Water shortages increase food prices, particularly affecting the urban poor, and water stored during droughts has a higher risk of contamination. Thirst, hunger, under-nutrition, protein energy malnutrition, and micronutrient deficiencies are common during drought, which have long-lasting consequences for the health and well-being of the population, particularly children (IPCC 2007). Drought is prevalent in interior and coastal regions of semiarid tropical areas. Close to 70 percent of the world’s population live in drought-prone areas (38 percent of world’s land area). Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected (Dilley et al. 2005). It is estimated that 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will be exposed to water stress due to desertification induced by climate change (IIED undated). In cities, drought is also linked to a rise in infectious diseases, such as meningitis, malaria, dengue, and the West Nile Virus. In Dar es Salaam, for example, between 2 percent and 10 percent of school children living in the city are infected with malaria (De Castro et al. 2010). Heat Waves
Climate change has resulted in extreme temperature fluctuations—aggravating a variety of existing health conditions and pollutants, and bringing about additional unhealthy changes in water and air quality. Heat waves can also contribute to an increase in fires. The IPCC predicts an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves in populations in high-density urban areas with poor housing, increasing heat-related deaths (IPCC 2007). Most of those who died during the heat wave in France in 2003 were the elderly, women, and poor living in the urban areas of Paris (Poumadère et al. 2005).