Climate Impacts on Energy Systems
75
Table 5.3. Climate Risk Management Tools
Climate Risk Assessment (CRA): an assessment of the vulnerabilities/risks posed to a project throughout its life cycle by weather and climate variability that might include:*
Impacts of adverse (or favorable) weather, such as storms and floods Impacts of adverse (or favorable) climate variability, including droughts Long-term impacts, beneficial and detrimental, associated with climate change
Climate Risk Management (CRM): proactive management of a project to mitigate the negative (and promote the positive) impacts of weather and climate variability and of climate change, based on a CRA and using all available information, including predictions on all time scales Climate Proofing: actions taken to lessen, or perhaps eliminate, the potential negative impacts through the life cycle of a project of weather and climate variability and of climate change based on a CRA and on CRM principles Pollution Modeling: an assessment and predictions of ground and atmospheric pollution emitted during the life cycle of a project Emissions Modeling: numerical calculation of the amount of greenhouse gases released through the life cycle of a project Environmental Impacts Assessment (EIA): an assessment of the impacts on the environment in toto of a project during its entire life cycle, including on the ground, on the scenery, on the atmosphere, on flora and fauna, and on society Source: Generated by authors. Note: * The World Bank, and other organizations, refer to CRA and the planning of climate proofing together as “climate risk screening” or equivalent (World Bank, 2010c).
It is not possible to provide specific detail for all developing-world issues related to the lists previously presented, but notes on some of the more generic issues follow:
■
■
■
There is often, but not always, a dearth of historical data in developing countries, resulting from numerous causes. For example: in the Central African Republic, most of the paper records held by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) have been destroyed in a recent fire; in the Philippines, most NMHS records still reside on poorly stored inaccessible paper records, and several stations do not reach WMO standards. On the other hand, improvements in the networks can be noted in Colombia and Brazil and efforts are also under way to strengthen NMHS networks in Mexico. However, sometimes, no organizations other than the NMHS collect weather records in developing countries. Recovery of weather information to digitized, and therefore analyzable, records requires sufficient resources that often do not exist. Where data sources other than the NMHS exist, the records are often kept separate and not necessarily to WMO standards. Data access policies may exist in all cases. NMHS networks have focused traditionally on providing forecasts for the public, the government, and aviation. Often sector-specific forecasts are not provided. Rarely are the most advanced forecast systems, such as ensembles, considered. Resources to convert information to sectoral concerns, perhaps through modeling or EIAs, may be restricted.
Hydro-meteorological Parameters Relevant to Energy The basic hydro-meteorological/climate parameters pertinent to the energy sector include those listed in Table 5.4.