Total fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than other regions Total fertility rate (births per woman) 6
2000 2008
Ninety percent of population growth occurs in developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia Europe & Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa High-income Latin America & Caribbean
5 4 3
Additional population (millions)
2
800
1 0
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Middle East & Caribbean North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
700
Source: World Development Indicators database
600
in 2025, with 90 percent of the growth in developing countries. Urbanization will intensify. About 90 percent of the additional population will be in urban areas. A third of people in urban areas will live in slums that lack basic social services such as clean water and sanitation and decent housing. In Sub-Saharan Africa, about 60 percent of urban dwellers will be in slums. The average age of the population will increase as fertility slows down and people live longer. About 20 percent of the population will be 65 years and older in high-income countries in 2025. The population will age at a higher rate in developing countries, although the share of elderly will remain lower than in high-income countries. In 2025, 9 percent of the population in developing countries will be 65 and older, a 45 percent increase since 2008. Future population growth, mainly concentrated in urban areas, poses challenges for many countries. Those which cannot meet the needs of their current populations will be hard pressed to provide more schools, healthcare, employment opportunities, and infrastructure for growing populations. Although cities offer more favorable settings to deliver services because of their advantages of scale and proximity, the challenge is how to take advantage of their possibilities. Aging populations bring their own burden of chronic and non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and stroke, cancer, and diabetes. Such diseases currently account for 60 percent of all deaths, and they are rapidly increasing in developing countries, putting additional pressure on health budgets.
500
400
300
200
100
0
2008–2015
2015–2025
Source: World Bank estimates
Population is aging in both developing and high-income countries Population ages 65 and older Population ages 15–64 Population ages 0–14 Age structure (% of total population) 100
6
7
9
90
15
17
67
66
21
80 70 60
65
66
66
50
63
40 30 20 29 10 0
27
25 18
2008 2015 2025 Developing countries
2008
17
16
2015 2025 High-income
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2008 revision
People
29