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The Great Recession and Developing Countries
40. 41. 42. 43.
44.
45. 46.
47.
both public and private, is projected to decline somewhat—from a little over 30 percent of GDP to just under 26 percent in 2017. The ratio of external-debtservice payments to exports is estimated to remain about 4 percent during 2007–17. The DSA concludes that Vietnam should thus remain at low risk of external debt distress. Further details of the DSA can be found at http://imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/dsa/pdf/dsacr09110.pdf. Except for 2007, when the investment growth rate was 26 percent, owing to large FDI inflows. See http://74.53.24.87/news/articles/economy/111283045.shtml. http://www.imf.org/external/np/dm/2010/060910.htm. http://vneconomy.vn/20100517094952600P0C9920/tang-truong-5-nam-toimuc-tieu-85-la-chap-nhan-duoc.htm and http://www.maivoo.com/2009/10/20/ Dong-thuan-muc-tieu-GDP-nam-2010-tang-6-5-n79242.html. It should be noted that due to large statistical errors in the national account, using projection methods based on components of GDP is difficult. We instead use these trends in informing our subjective judgment. Unlike many export-oriented Asian economies, Vietnam has been running a trade deficit. Global saving glut in the words of Ben Bernanke, the chairman of U.S. Federal Reserve in 2005. See www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0802_china_spending_prasad.aspx and http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/hbr/hbr-now/2009/08/ trend-to-watch-shifting-consum.html. See http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/39318/.
References Abbott, Philip, Jeanet Bentzen, and Finn Tarp. 2008. “Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam’s Past Trade Agreements.” World Development 37 (2): 341–353. Che Tuong Nhu, Tom Kompas, and Neil Vousden. 2003. “Market Reform, Incentives and Economic Development in Vietnamese Rice Production.” Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University. http://www. crawford.anu.edu.au/degrees/idec/working_papers/IDEC03-7.pdf. CIEM (Central Institute of Economic Management). 2005. “Vietnam’ s Economy 2005.” CIEM, Political Theories Publisher, Hanoi. Foster, J. D. 2009. “Keynesian Fiscal Stimulus Policies Stimulate Debt—Not the Economy.” Backgrounder 2302, The Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC. GSO (General Statistics Office). 2009. “Annual Socio-Economic Report for 2009.” http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=507&ItemID=9449. IFC (International Finance Corporation). 2005. “Beyond the Headline Numbers: Business Registration and Startup in Vietnam.” http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/ mekongpsdf.nsf/AttachmentsByTitle/PSDP-20/$FILE/PSDP-No-20-EN.pdf.