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of the global supply chains on the changes in GDP elasticity of imports still cannot be confirmed by our explorative data analysis. The results of this robustness check can be found in annex figure 3A.1. 25. Year-to-year change, volumes in US dollars (fixed PPPs, OECD reference year), seasonally adjusted. Market exchange rates are used for the OECD aggregation. 26. As mentioned, we use “steady state” in the very limited sense of “long-term outcome”; the trade patterns that emerged in the 2000s witnessed the accumulation of large macroeconomic imbalances, and these patterns were not sustainable. 27. Cheung and Guichard (2009) suggest that the way vertical specialization affects trade is by raising its elasticity with respect to income. 28. Data are from Miroudot and Ragoussis (2009). Time-series have been created over the period 1995–2009 with three data points (1995, 2000, and 2005 for most countries). Because data are interpolated and extrapolated, there is no guarantee that the variable accurately reflects the variation over time of the vertical specialization share. The assumption is that this share is relatively stable over years and that the trend suggested by the three data points is enough to account for its evolution.
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