WEALTH AND CHANGES IN WEALTH, 1995–2005 39
ANS can be a particularly useful indicator for resource-rich countries, those where resource rents are at least 5 percent of GNI. For these countries, transforming nonrenewable natural capital into other forms of wealth is a major development challenge. The rule for interpreting ANS is simple and clear: if ANS is negative, then we are running down our capital stocks and reducing future social welfare; if ANS is positive, then we are adding to wealth and future wellbeing. Figure 2.7 shows the performance of resource-rich countries, measured by the importance of resource rents in GNI. Positive ANS occurs in countries like Botswana and China, where mineral depletion is offset by investment in other types of capital. Those countries with negative ANS, below the zero ANS line, such as Angola and Uzbekistan, are depleting their natural capital without replacing it and are becoming poorer over time. Figure 2.8 shows ANS for six developing-country regions. While there is marked volatility from year to year, two trends are clear: the upward trend of East and South Asia, where per capita wealth is increasing rapidly, and the downward trend of Sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita wealth barely changed between 1995 and 2005 (although, as noted earlier, this African trend is dominated by figures for Nigeria and a handful of other countries, particularly oil-exporting countries).
FIGURE 2.7
Adjusted Net Saving in Resource-Rich Countries, 2008 40 Botswana
adjusted net saving as % GNI
China
20
0 Uzbekistan
—20 Equatorial Guinea Angola
—40
Congo, Rep.
—60 0
20
40 60 80 energy and mineral rents as % GNI
Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank data.
100