France
289
attempt to recompense for the loss of one’s money. Specific operations could be formalized, especially the collection and transfer of funds, to avoid these risks. Payments made through mobile phones at a low cost per transaction could also be a convenient means of avoiding frequent calls or the use of fax machines. Some RSPs interviewed are interested in formalizing certain operations with the new PE regulations in mind, but they are concerned about potential fiscal losses from their inability to compete in a technologically advanced environment. Another constraint is posed by some wholesalers who have a strong interest in having access to cash currencies to finance their international purchases. User preference, origin of migrants, and financial literacy are strong determinants in the choice of channels and mechanisms used.19
Remittance Volumes, Sources, and Destinations Several hypotheses were used to estimate the size of the French remittance market. The formal flows were then separated from the data gathered through primary and secondary sources. Two scenarios were modeled for the entire market on the basis of estimated population of migrants. The data from the study were then aggregated to estimate the total formal market. Model 1 was based on the average amount sent and the propensity to send. The model estimated a population of 1 million migrants, the propensity (62 percent of migrants) to send money home, and an average monthly transfer per capita. The estimate based on Model 1 is shown in table 10.6. Model 2 was based on an African Development Bank (AfDB) study from 2007, from which partial data were extrapolated. The estimate based on Model 1 is shown in table 10.7. Based on the estimates derived from both models, as shown in tables 10.6 and 10.7, the size of the French remittance market for Sub-Saharan Africa is between €1 billion (low hypothesis) and €1.8 billion. Formal market estimates. The global formal market from the sample was extrapolated by use of several hypotheses and complementary sources, including the following: • 2006 data from La Banque Postale (from an official source), which is the backbone of the market20 • Flows generated by MTOs, extrapolated from the volume of transactions of a typical Western Union branch