A Unified Approach to Measuring Poverty and Inequality
provides a tool to understand per capita consumption expenditure determinants and to develop appropriate poverty eradication policies. Changes in the Probability of Being in Poverty Table 3.29 analyzes changes in the probability of being in poverty using a probit regression model based on the consumption regression presented in table 3.28. Rows denote changes in values for various variables—such as change from having no children 0–6 years old to having one child, change Table 3.29: Changes in the Probability of Being in Poverty percent 2003
Variables 1 2
Demographic event, child born in the family Change from having no children 0–6 years old to having 1 child Change from having no children 0–6 years old to having 2 children
3 4 5 6
Land acquisition event Change from “0 ha” to Change from “0 ha” to Change from “0 ha” to Change from “0 ha” to
7
Change of household head (following divorce, migration, and so forth) Change from “Male” to “Female”
“less than 0.2 ha” “0.2–0.5 ha” “0.5–1.0 ha” “over 1.0 ha”
2006
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
A
B
C
D
2.0 4.7
18.0 33.1
31.5 57.9
17.8 33.5
−18.9 −27.4 −37.4 −3.5
−15.3 −33.6 −44.5 −51.9
−16.6 −21.8 −19.8 −29.5
−18.0 −20.9 −38.5 −49.6
13.0
0.2
18.4
3.9
10.5
−4.5
−28.0
−10.3
9 10 11 12
Education event: change in household head’s education Change from “Elementary or less” to “Incomplete secondary” Change from “Elementary or less” to “Secondary” Change from “Elementary or less” to “Vocational-technical” Change from “Elementary or less” to “Special secondary” Change from “Elementary or less” to “Higher education”
−3.3 −17.6 −23.0 −40.3
−13.6 −18.8 −27.2 −33.7
−22.4 −27.8 −33.0 −51.4
−23.0 −29.5 −36.7 −51.8
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sector of employment event: household head’s sector of employment Change from “Agriculture” to “Industry” Change from “Agriculture” to “Trade” Change from “Agriculture” to “Transport” Change from “Agriculture” to “Other Services” Change from “Agriculture” to “Industry” Change from “Agriculture” to “Trade” Change from “Agriculture” to “Transport” Change from “Agriculture” to “Government” Change from “Agriculture” to “Education” Change from “Agriculture” to “Health Care” Change from “Agriculture” to “Other” Change from “Agriculture” to “Unemployed” Change from “Agriculture” to “Inactive”
5.7 −15.6 −5.2 −13.8 8.8 19.6 4.2 8.4 7.5 8.3 25.3 87.4 48.2
−53.1 −36.5 −40.5 −43.8 −17.7 −20.0 −28.7 −30.7 −7.8 −12.0 −20.9 20.7 17.4
25.3 −10.6 7.7 20.3 7.1 4.8 36.8 −2.3 5.7 7.8 4.3 72.1 35.6
−28.1 −26.2 −40.3 −4.7 −19.4 −16.0 −37.0 −36.4 −6.4 −36.7 −0.7 9.7 9.8
8
Source: Based on consumption regression presented in table 3.28.
220