4
FEATURE 1
F I G U R E F 1.2
WO R L D D E V E LO P M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 1 1
How violence is changing (continued) Organized criminal violence threatens peace processes Homicides have increased in every country in Central America since 1999, including those that had made great progress in addressing political conflict—and this is not unique; countries such as South Africa face similar second generation challenges.
Absolute change in homicide rate relative to 1999
40
30
20
10
0
–10 1999
2000
2001
El Salvador Panama
2002 Honduras Nicaragua
2003
2004 Guatemala Costa Rica
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Belize
Sources: WDR team calculations based on UNODC 2007; UNODC and World Bank 2007; and national sources. Note: Base year for homicide rate is 1999 = 0.
How violence disrupts development The gap in poverty is widening between countries affected by violence and others New poverty data reveal that poverty is declining for much of the world, but countries affected by violence are lagging behind. For every three years a country is affected by major violence (battle deaths or excess deaths from homicides equivalent to a major war), poverty reduction lags behind by 2.7 percentage points. Poverty headcount (% of population living below $1.25 a day)
F I G U R E F 1.3
65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Countries affec ff ted by major violence Countries affec ff ted by minor violence Countries with negligible or no violence
Sources: WDR team calculations based on Chen, Ravallion, and Sangraula 2008 poverty data (available on POVCALNET (http://iresearch.worldbank.org)). Note: Poverty is % of population living at less than US$1.25 per day.