L E S S O N S F R O M PA S T C R I S E S
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2010
FIGURE 2A.2 Projected Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria and U.S. PEPFAR HIV/AIDS grants per AIDS patient as of April 2009 12 10 US$, millions
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8 6 4 2 0
East Asia Europe and and Pacific Central Asia
Latin Middle East America and North and the Africa Carribbean
South Asia
East Africa
Southern West Central Africa Africa
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Lewis 2009.
budgets force cutbacks in prevention. It is a dynamic problem; new infections occur daily, and so a continuous, uninterrupted response is required. It may take 7–10 years for a person to become symptomatic, but even people without evident symptoms can pass on the virus and infect others. Actions now will reduce the rate at which people with the virus can pass it on, underscoring the importance of antiretroviral therapy as a prevention measure. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and others are financing extensive efforts in prevention technologies, and considerable ongoing research is exploring how to discourage risky behaviors. But equal attention must go to actually promoting behavior change and rolling out promising approaches where prevention lags. Because programs for prevention are dwarfed by those for treatment, the balance deserves some recalibration to spare those not yet infected. While neither simple nor easy, a push to expand prevention is warranted if there is to be progress on Goal 6A: halting the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015.
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Notes 1. Arbache, Go, and Korman 2010. Although the aggregate figures show girls’ education is affected by growth cycles, there is still a lack of microstudies that show girls are disproportionately more likely to be pulled out of
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schools during covariate shocks. However, some of these more adverse effects may be occurring in conflict or disastrous situations with institutional breakdowns so that microstudies are not available. For the entire sample of developing countries, 47 percent of the 4,415 country-year observations are classified as growth accelerations while 11 percent are classified as growth decelerations. The remaining 42 percent of observations are for years in which countries experienced neither growth acceleration nor deceleration episodes. To some extent this pattern may be endogenous, because average income per capita tends to rise in countries with more frequent growth accelerations and fall in countries with more frequent collapses. Arbache and Page 2007. Arbache and Page 2010. Arbache, Go, and Page 2008. The inflation figure would have been higher had Zimbabwe been included; it was excluded from the analysis because of missing data for other variables. The analysis is taken from Lewis and Verhoeven (2010) and relies on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, United National Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO, education spending), and the World Health Organization (WHO) National Health Accounts (health spending). The absence of a consistent time series in education spending data required the integra-