GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2010
OUTLOOK FOR THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
TABLE 4.2 Trends for other MDG human development indicators by region and alternative economic scenarios 2015 MDG and region
Target
1991
2007
Postcrisis
Precrisis
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
101 93 84 78 62 51 78
98 98 100 90 80 60 85
100 99.9 97.9 94.9 82.4 67.3 91.5
100 100 100 95.6 91.7 67.6 91.8
99.3 99.9 97.7 93.6 81.9 66.7 90.4
MDG 3: Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education (%) Target
1991
2007
East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa All developing countries
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
89 100 98 78 70 79 83
99 102 103 96 89 86 95
100 99.4 100 95.6 92.7 89.7 96.0
100 100 100 98.2 94.4 89.9 96.5
100 97.8 100 94.7 92.1 89.1 95.6
MDG 4: Child mortality under five (per 1,000)
Target
1990
2007
19 17 18 26 42 61 34
56 50 55 78 125 183 101
27 23 26 38 78 146 74
24.6 18.8 23.7 36.7 76.0 139.5 68.6
18.6 15.4 19.7 29.2 62.7 138.7 68.1
24.9 21.7 25.4 37.3 76.6 141.0 69.5
1990
2006
3.3 0 5.4 8.3 9.3 39.1 10.1
0.6 0 4.5 7.4 5.1 38.8 9.6
4.1 1.8 7.1 10.0 10.2 39.8 11
MDG 2: Primary completion rate (%) East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa All developing countries
East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa All developing countries
MDG 7.c: Access to improved water source (% population w/access) Target East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa All developing countries
16 5 8 6 13 26 12
32 10 16 11 27 51 24
13 5 9 12 13 42 14
Low-growth
Source: World Bank staff estimates.
participation by girls in school reflects in part the educational level of the mother, and access to safe water is affected by the degree of urbanization. The impact of slower growth on the MDGs increases, however, as the time horizon is extended further into the future (for example, fewer girls being educated now means that eventually women of childbearing age will have less education).
In general, the impact of the low-growth scenario on development outcomes will be cumulative and long term (figure 4.3). • If the baseline scenario (the postcrisis trend) holds up, human development indicators will continue to improve albeit less rapidly owing to the extended impact of the crisis. By 2015 the differences between the gains
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