14
Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
amplified by the deterioration in national climate services in a number of Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The possibility of reducing the uncertainty about the nature and impact of climate change is limited—particularly in the short run. Policy work on climate change must therefore strive to help decision makers manage uncertainty, even as the scientific community tries to reduce it.1 Of course, managing uncertainty is what most business and policy makers do on a regular basis.2 Managing uncertainty in the adaptation context means reducing the vulnerability of systems—social, economic, and ecological—to climate change—that is, reducing “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes” (IPCC 2007a: 883). Reducing vulnerability begins with understanding its sources. Vulnerability can be gauged without having to undertake expensive in-depth assessments. Countries and cities around the world have developed frameworks to assess and manage climate risk or reduce vulnerability (Australian Government 2005; Finnish Environment Institute 2007; Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala 2006; Ligeti, Penney, and Wieditz 2007; Natural Resources Canada 2005). These offer practical methodological approaches and lessons regarding implementation.3 But developing and implementing adaptation strategies entail a number of challenges.4 It requires getting the right data and knowing how to use it. Climate data are usually projections based on large-scale models that lose reliability even as they are downscaled (chapter 2). Even where data are available, decision makers may be swamped by the number and variety of projections by climate modelers, or they may not understand how to use the data and manage the uncertainty in projections. Another challenge is to appraise and choose among options. Decision makers need to decide whether and when to undertake costly and irreversible investments in a situation where the magnitude and probability of risk are largely unknown. How should planners decide whether to spend millions to protect against a flood that may never come? When should farmers decide to switch crops or invest in irrigation? A critical element of any adaptation strategy is therefore a methodology for decision making under uncertainty. In addition, obstacles to adaptation must be understood. These may be straightforward, such as technical or financial obstacles, or less obvious, such as those linked to human psychology or informational and cognitive barriers. For example, people already dealing with multiple uncertainties may have a “finite pool of worry” (Hansen, Marx, and Weber 2004). People may not act upon good infor-