26
Low-Carbon Development for Mexico
The baseline scenario uses the government’s demand projections for the period to 2016. For the period 2017–30, it assumes that electricity generation increases 3.9 percent a year, reaching 630 TWh by 2030. Installed capacity (not including self-supply) is projected to increase by a factor of 2.2, from about 50 GW in 2008 to 110 GW in 2030.3 The selection of power-generation technologies for 2017–30 was based on the assumptions that expansion is based on demand projections and least-cost technology4 and that environmental requirements for criteria pollutants (particulates, SO2, and NOX) are met. Unlike the government’s current planning outlook, which sets a ceiling on coal penetration, the baseline scenario assumes that power-supply technologies are driven primarily by costs, without consideration of climate change or other policy-driven issues. The large increase in coal-based electricity generation under the baseline scenario is consistent with recent trends in a number of countries worldwide. Under these assumptions, there would be a distinct shift in the fuel mix of Mexico’s power sector by 2030, with a nearly 6-fold increase in coalfired generation requiring significant investments in coal-related infrastructure and a 2.5–fold increase in gas-fired power generation (figure 2.3). Both coal and gas imports for power generation would rise significantly.
power generation (terawatt hours)
Figure 2.3 Electricity Generation by Fuel Type in Mexico: Historical Trend and Projected Growth under the Baseline Scenario, 1965–2030 700 600
biomass wind power
500
hydropower
400
geothermal power nuclear power
300
natural gas cogeneration
200
natural gas
100
fuel oil and other fossil fuels coal and coke
0 1965 1970
1980
1990
2000 year
2010
2020
2030
Source: Authors, based on records from SENER and CRE.
Under the baseline scenario, total CO2e emissions from power generation increase 230 percent, from 142 Mt CO2e in 2008 to 322 Mt CO2e in 2030 (figure 2.4). The expansion of coal-fired generation accounts for 33.5 percent of the increase; gas-fired generation accounts for 46.2 percent. Despite the much larger share of coal-fired generation, the overall carbon intensity of electricity production drops in the baseline, from 0.538 t CO2e/TWh in