Economic Gains of Regional Agreements: Deeper versus Wider Integration
311
Table 11.2 Projected Impact of Unit Increase in Service Reform Index on FDI Stock in Maghreb Countries (percentage of GDP)
Maghreb South-East Europe Former Soviet Union Average
Infrastructure reforms 8.83 12.55 19.13 17.37
Financial sector services 9.21 13.57 18.35 17.38
Investment climate reforms 8.53 12.93 15.02 14.64
Source: Authors. See annex. Note: Maghreb = Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia; South-East Europe = Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Macedonia, FYR; Romania; and Serbia and Montenegro; Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
Figure 11.6 Projected FDI Stock in Maghreb Countries Given Service Liberalization and Investment Climate Reforms, 2005 and 2015
US$, billions
120
80
40
0
2005
2015 Algeria
status quo
2005
2015
Morocco
2005
2015 Tunisia
service liberalization and investment climate reforms
Source: Authors.
average annual per capita growth between 2005 and 2015 is 6.2 percent in Algeria, 5.7 percent in Morocco, and 5.8 percent in Tunisia (figure 11.7). Per capita real GDP between 2005 and 2015 would rise an additional 57 percent in Algeria, 51 percent in Morocco, and 38 percent in Tunisia compared with the growth rate reported in the status quo of Scenario 1.