302
Anos Casero and Kumar Seshan
Dee and Gali (2003). Deeper integration is proxied by a move toward service sector liberalization and its impact on growth, exports, and FDI (this analysis draws on the work of Eschenbach and Hoekman 2005). The gains from integration are measured by the impact on GDP between 2005 and 2015 under five scenarios: • The status quo considers no changes from current integration policies. • Shallow integration examines the situation in which an RTA is formed that eliminates most tariffs on and other barriers to intraregional merchandise trade. • Wider integration examines the situation in which Maghreb countries form a regional merchandise trading bloc with the European Union (this scenario is compared with the gains of each country’s unilateral integration with the European Union). • Deeper integration examines the situation in which Maghreb countries move toward service sector liberalization and investment climate reforms. • Deeper and wider integration examines the situation in which Maghreb countries form a regional trading bloc with the European Union and move toward service sector liberalization and investment climate reforms.
Some Methodological Issues Ideally, this analysis would simulate the impact of each policy scenario on the economic performance for individual Maghreb countries, using a consistent model of the Maghreb economies. Limits on resources, data, and appropriate modeling frameworks force some compromise with this ideal. Instead, we rely on statistical relationships derived from studies of worldwide experience to represent the typical impact of such integration schemes, assuming that these relationships apply on average to the Maghreb as a whole. These scenarios should thus be viewed as illustrations of the gains that could be expected from regional integration, not predictions of the likely impact. (Details on methodology, data, and econometric results are presented in the annex to this chapter.) This approach implies that we do not assess the marginal gains of regional cooperation in the service sectors. This analysis is hampered by the absence of detailed data on trade and investment in services by sector, the absence of regionally comparable computable general equilibrium