Economic Growth in China and India
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Figure 8.1 Projected Changes in Volume of Exports from the Middle East and North Africa Associated with Extra Growth in China and India other services communication services trade and transport other manufactures electronics machinery and equipment vehicles metals chemicals minerals wood products leather apparel textiles energy other processed food dairy livestock and meat other crops plant-based fibers sugar oils and fats vegetables and fruits grains wheat rice –4,000 –3,000 –2,000 –1,000 0
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 US$ millions
Source: Authors, based on simulations of modified GTAP model (Ianchovichina 2004). Note: Figure shows changes in value between baseline and 2020.
demand resulting from improvements in the terms of trade. But the boost to China’s and India’s manufacturing industries is expected to create positive spillover effects through increased demand for intermediate inputs, including minerals, energy, and farm-based natural resources. Indeed, exports of energy products will increase the most, followed by increases in exports of farm products, and minerals.