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Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention
Spotlight 4 on Ethiopia Deaths from droughts or Derg? Ethiopia is prone to many hazards including earthquakes—the African and Arabian tectonic plates meet in the Rift valley. Although flash floods are more frequent, droughts have been far deadlier. Global data show that almost a million people have died from droughts since 1970, mostly in Africa (chapter 1, figure 1.3). Over the past six decades, Ethiopia has been particularly drought-prone, with one every 3 to 5 years and some lasting over several years. There is rain, averaging 1005 mm annually, but it varies greatly by region and is particularly unpredictable.1 Many of these deaths were avoidable, although droughts are not—because a “slow onset” hazard allows ample time for food to reach those who would otherwise starve, but this did not always happen. Chapter 2 reports on the empirical association between disasters and conflicts that continue to simmer in the region; but conflict is not the only reason for food not to reach the starving. Amartya Sen drew attention to the absence of famines in India after independence when the authorities became more responsive to their people.2 Better institutions, both domestic and external, could prevent deaths from droughts. Living with unreliable rains Much of Ethiopia’s agriculture—accounting for half its GDP and sustaining 80 percent of its people—is rainfed, and its 80 million people have long adapted to its unpredictability. Farmers and pastoralists cope with droughts differently, and both groups have great difficulty with extended Spotlight map 1 Rainfall in Ethiopia R d S e a
Te
kez
T I G R AY
e
ET H I O P I A
REP. OF YEMEN
e
ERITREA
Mean rainfall (in mm.) 260 - 700 700 - 1,000
ETHIOPIA
1,000 - 1,500 A tba
Dinder
1,500 - 1,920
ra
National capital International boundaries
Lake Tana
AFAR
AMHARA B
lu e
Abay
e n G u l f o f A d
Nile
ger Han
BENSHANGUL
Note: Average rainfall over last twenty years. Source: National Meteorological Services Agency.
Aw a s h
SUDAN
Region boundaries
DJIBOUTI
0
DIRE DAWA Didesa
0
ADDIS ABABA
200 Kilometers 100
200 Miles
HARARI
ADDIS ABABA Ra mis
O R O M I YA
Baro
100
GAMBELA bo
Wa
Ako
O R O M I YA
SOMALI be Wa
Ges
tro
SOUTHERN NATIONS, NATIONALITES AND PEOPLES
b e Shebele
Wab e
Sh ebele
SOMALIA
Genale
Dawa
Source: World Bank staff.
KENYA
INDIAN OCEAN
IBRD 37880 AUGUST 2010
Lake Turkana
UGANDA