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Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention
• Accounting for measures indirectly related to prevention. For example, any anti-poverty policy or program, which, even though not disaster specific, reduces vulnerability or exposure. • Accounting for those post-disaster expenditures where the reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure includes disaster-resistant measures that lead to future prevention. Doing so would provide a basis for tracking global expenditures on prevention and for related policy implications in hazard-specific and geographically specific contexts. But the data constraints and resource requirements for doing so should not be underestimated. What, then, of allocation and effectiveness of spending? Too little goes for intangibles and maintenance. Effective spending has high rates of return but is difficult in practice. A cost-benefit analysis is a useful ex ante guide, and ex post evaluation ensures that lessons are learned. But rarely is either used. So we grope for indicators that seem reasonable (but will not persuade a skeptic that much spending is poorly allocated and ineffective). For example, infrastructure built appropriately to reduce disaster risk may not be sufficiently maintained, lowering the effectiveness of the original capital spending. About 30 percent of infrastructure assets of a typical African country need rehabilitation (figure 4.2), and just $0.6 billion on road maintenance would yield $2.6 billion in annual benefits (BriceñoGarmendia, Smits, and Foster 2008). Government neglect of maintenance is similar to neglecting spending on other intangible items that yield future benefits, such as environmental
Figure 4.2 Underspending on maintenance implies an enormous infrastructure rehabilitation backlog in Sub-Saharan Africa Average rehabilitation index (percent)
50 40 30 20 10 0 Generation
Main roads
Irrigation
Urban water
Rural water
Railways
Rural roads
Average
Infrastructure Note: The rehabilitation index shows the average percentage across countries of each type of infrastructure that is in poor condition and thus in need of rehabilitation. Source: Briceño-Garmendia, Smits, and Foster 2008.