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Figure 24. Bilateral Remittance Estimates using Migrant Stocks, Host Country Incomes, and Origin Country Incomes Canada – top recipients China India United Kingdom Philippines Lebanon France United States Belgium Netherlands Germany Poland Portugal Romania Vietnam Italy Sri Lanka Jamaica Pakistan Serbia and Montenegro Australia Austria Haiti
1315.2 1224.5 1071.7 1038.4 704.5 578.6 384.5 350.4 347.4 321.6 308.0 257.8 257.1 237.1 233.7 220.5 135*– 217 201.5 147.1 146.2 122.0 73.6–82** 0
200
400
Total remittance outflow from Canada estimated by World Bank DEC: 12.1 billion US$
600
800
1000
1200
1400
million US$
*For Jamaica, the lower end refers to Bank of Jamaica estimates for 2007. **For Haiti, the higher end refers to author’s estimate based on 2006 Statistics Canada Census of Population, CERLAC 2005 survey of Haitian population in Canada (see chapter 3). Source: World Bank estimates, Bank of Jamaica.
pattern of migrants into Canada, their duration of stay, their remitting behavior, the average income earned across time, and the estimated share of income allocated to remittances. The study model used was a modified version of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Methodology for Remittance Flow Projections. Based on this methodology, the estimated total remittance outflow from Canada was about Can$17 billion. The data available from the World Bank Development Economics (DEC) Group, however, estimates that the overall remittance outflow for Canada in 2006 was approximately US$12 billion, corresponding to about 0.96 percent of Canadian GDP. The gap between the two estimates seems to be the result of the different methodologies used, but the difference is not extreme enough to invalidate either of the estimates. The DEC group’s estimate is based on the following three main factors: the migrants’ stock in sender and recipient, migrant incomes abroad (migrant stocks multiplied by per capita income in destination economies), and income levels in source-countries (Ratha and Shaw 2007). Aggregating the size of each corridor with Canada, the overall outflows from Canada are derived (Figure 24).