Tyler Reber Moore
may have predicted the outcome of the December 2, 2008 runoff between Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. Such factors include but are not limited to turnout, race, urbanization, education level, and gender. A quantitative study of these factors is necessary to discover if they had any significant influence on the contest between Chambliss and Martin for the Georgia Senate Seat.
Data and Methods
The units of analysis for this study are the 159 counties which comprise the state of Georgia, and the dependent variable is the percentage of the vote that Senator Saxby Chambliss carried in each county in the runoff. Data for the percentage of the vote for Senator Chambliss in the runoff is available by county, on the website for the Office of the Georgia Secretary of State. Ten independent variables will be studied to determine their The units of analysis for this study are the 159 counties which comprise the state of Georgia, and the dependent variable is the percentage of the vote that Senator Saxby Chambliss carried in each county in the runoff. Data for the percentage of the vote for Senator Chambliss in the runoff is available by county, on the website for the Office of the Georgia Secretary of State. Ten independent variables will be studied to determine their effect on the variation in the dependent variable. Data for the independent variables of the percentage of the vote Senator Chambliss received in the November election, as well as the percentage of the vote President Obama received in the November election, are also available on the website of the Office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The independent variable called “turnout quotient� is derived by dividing the total number of votes cast during the runoff by the total number of votes cast in the general election. The data necessary to calculate each county’s turnout quotient is also found on the website for the Office of the Georgia Secretary of State. Data for the independent variables of percent of college graduates, percent high school graduates, and population density (persons per square mile) is from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, but the most recent data on these variables is from the 2000 census. Data for the independent variables of percent African American, and percent female also came from the U.S. Bureau of the Census; however, the data for these variables is accurate as of 2007. In 2003, the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) of metro Atlanta was redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to include 28 counties. The counties of Georgia will be divided into two regions, metro Atlanta, and the remainder of counties. Counties in the Atlanta MSA will be coded with a 1, while all other counties in Georgia will be coded with a 0, refer to Appendix A to identify the 28 counties of metro Atlanta MSA.
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