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Florida & Metro Forecast 2012-2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published October 2012

Dean’s Message As I write this message, my beloved Detroit Tigers are playing in the World Series. It has been six long years since they last played for the championship. I was in the stands when they lost that one. About University of Central Florida (UCF)

Making it to the World Series is tough. Winning it is even tougher. There are 30 teams that compete for the title each year, but only one can emerge as champs. The Tigers have not won the World Series since they beat the San Diego Padres at Tiger Stadium on October 14, 1984! That was 28 years ago and I was still in graduate school. This year’s Tigers have succeeded because they worked hard, were patient and persevered. High expectations led to a lot of early disappointment, but they were able to pick themselves up after a defeat. Most importantly, they believed in themselves and never quit. I see a parallel between my team and my new state. Florida was hit hard by the recession, harder than most of the other 49 states. While I have only been here a short time, I am quite impressed by the resiliency of the residents. Even with a high unemployment rate and struggling housing market, Floridians never gave up.

About the College of Business Administration

According to this latest forecast, that resiliency is finally paying off. Dr. Sean Snaith predicts that “Florida’s economic recovery will finally build some steam in 2013.” That is great news and is a real tribute to the citizens of our state. Individual accomplishments are terrific, but when people work together as a team, whether it’s in sports or as a community, it is much easier to reach your goals. Go Tigers,

P aul Jarley Paul Jarley Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2012 - 2015 October 2012 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Melissa Hedtke, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Ta b l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r id a H i g h l i g ht s

H i g h l i g ht s o f th e O C T O B ER 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 F l o r id a F o r e c a s t • Florida’s economic recovery will finally build some steam in 2013. (No, really.) • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average just 0.9% in 2012, 1.8% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, and 2.5% in 2015. It will be third quarter 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is still the lynchpin to predicting the future path for the unemployment rate in Florida. The timing and extent to which discouraged workers reenter the labor force will be a key determinant of the path of the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates have declined in large part due to labor force contraction and they will continue to decline through 2015. The pace of decline will be moderate and it will be 2014 Q4 before we see unemployment fall below 8%. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market slack than official unemployment (U-3), came in at 17.0% for third quarter 2011 through second quarter 2012. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2012-2015 are Construction (5.0%); Professional and Business Services (4.6%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.2%); Education & Health Services (2.0%); and Information (1.6%). • Housing starts will continue to creep higher in 2012 and begin to accelerate in 2013. Total starts will be just under 120,000 in 2014 and just over 157,000 in 2015, the highest level since 2006. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 1.7% in 2012, and then accelerate to 2.1% in 2013, 2.4% in 2013, 3.0% in 2014, and 3.9% in 2015. • Real personal income growth for 2012 slowed to 1.3%. From 2013-2015, real personal income growth will average 3.7%, and will slowly accelerate to 4.0% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will continue to pick up in 2012 and beyond. By 2015, the growth rate should hit 1.7%, the fastest rate since 2006. As the economy strengthens, job creation and Baby Boomers’ retirements will both boost net migration. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during 2012-2015, after growing in 2011 at the fastest rate since 2005.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

Flor ida’s H ou si n g M a r ke t Data recently released by Florida Realtors shows signs of a housing market that continues to find firmer footing amid growing signs of a nascent housing recovery in Florida. Median sales prices for single-family homes increased $8,000 in August yearover-year and stand at $147,000. For the beleaguered townhome/condominium market, the median sales price increased nearly $12,000 year-over-year and came in at $102,980 in August. Figure 1, below, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single family homes, as well as the 12 month moving average of these sales. The trend for sales has been a strong upward path from the nadir of sales in late 2007 and early 2008. The path has wavered at times and the 12-month moving average has had a few dips since that low point, but the overall trend is strongly upward. Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single family existing homes. While it does not show the same strong upward trend that sales have followed, there are some signs of improvement in prices as well. It appears that prices have hit a wellestablished bottom and have bounced along that bottom for the better part of two years. In recent months the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has curled upwards. Will this upward curl represent another bump along this bottom or the start

of a recovery in home prices? Time will ultimately tell and equity starved homeowners across the state can only hope this is the case. We have previously described Florida’s housing and labor markets as the Siamese twins of the state’s economy. We are seeing signs of improvement in both of the “twins,” but neither of them is completely healthy just yet. As we progress into 2013 we expect an upgrade in the conditions of both markets. The housing and labor markets were in grave condition at the low point of the housing and financial crises. As a result the markets faced a long climb out of a deep hole. Upward progress is finally becoming evident, though the pace of this progress has been far too slow for many Floridians who lay strewn at the bottom of this abyss.

Out look f or Flo r ida 201 2- 201 5 Florida’s Economic Recovery, Entangled in the Nation’s Economic Ennui, Stands Poised to Break Away

The year 2012 is turning out to be a year that the recovery forgot. Nationally, the economy has greatly decelerated as economic growth has slowed to a crawl and uncertainty about economic policy, politics, and the global economy has continued to grow. Florida has also continued to grow amidst this torpor,

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Florida

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

30000

300000

Realtor Sales Total

Median Sales Price Dollars

Moving Average RS Moving Average MHP

25000

250000

20000

200000

15000

150000

10000

100000

5000

50000

0

0

Year

6

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Year Source: Florida Realtors

Source: Florida Realtors

F l o r id a Summ a r y

although the promise of a more robust recovery has remained just beyond our grasp.

eating away at budgets and drawing down consumer spending in areas other than energy purchases.

Florida’s economic recovery began in 2010, and the first year of real Gross State Product growth was just 0.9%. Unfortunately, in 2011, growth did not increase in the state. We expect that the economy expanded by just 0.5% last year.

The year 2011 was anticipated to be a stronger follow up to the weak economic growth Florida experienced in 2010, the first year of our state’s economic recovery. Instead of a year of gaining momentum, 2011 turned out to be a step backwards as already subpar growth slowed.

The pace of the U.S. economic recovery in 2012 has plummeted from a very healthy, albeit shortlived, 4.1% rate of growth in the 4th quarter of 2011. Growth in the 2nd quarter was just 1.3%, and in the second half of the year it looks like growth will remain below 2.0%. The Presidential election offers two distinct paths forward for the U.S. economy, and the fate of two large, complex, and economically harmful pieces of legislation in the areas of healthcare and financial regulation hang in the balance. The “fiscal cliff” also looms large at the end of 2012 and beginning of 2013. The fate of the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut, along with across the board spending cuts currently slated to begin at the start of 2013, remain up in the air as the nation’s capital is focused on the election. While it is highly unlikely that we will plunge over the cliff and send the economy back into recession, how this problem will be addressed is still unclear. The enduring problems with consumer’s balance sheets and the housing market’s ongoing struggle to return to normalcy will continue to weigh on real GDP growth. The lasting impact of lost wealth will also play a role in keeping economic growth to just 1.7% on average in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2012. In Florida, the wealth effects of depleted, and in many cases negative home equity have been substantial and will continue to weigh on the shoulders of Floridians for years to come. Consumer spending should continue to show some boost from pent-up demand in 2012, although the persistently high prices of oil and gasoline are an ongoing barrier to consumer spending. How long prices remain elevated will determine the magnitude of the effect of energy prices on consumer spending. High gasoline prices act like a tax on consumers,

Florida’s economic future remains bright despite the fact that this bright future has for the past couple of years seemed more like the mirage of an oasis just on the horizon of a vast economic desert. This oasis of economic growth has been tantalizing in its prospect, but persistently beyond our grasp. Just when it seems we will drink a stronger pace of economic growth, some event, some setback, some echo from the financial and housing crises seems to move the oasis further into the future yet again. There is definitely a brighter day ahead for the Sunshine State. Really, there is. Floridian’s patience and pocketbooks have worn thin awaiting the dawn of that day, but as sure as the hatches of love bugs in our state, that day is coming. Hopefully that day will stick around as long as the love bugs do on the grills of our cars. The year 2012 is shaping up to be another year of subpar growth, but it is still better than 2011. Economic growth for 2012 will be 1.7% and payrolls will expand by just 0.9%. Florida’s economic growth will accelerate into 2013 and 2014, allowing the labor market to build momentum in its recovery, and even the plagued construction sector will begin to see job growth by 2013. The only sector expected to consistently lose jobs through 2015 is the federal government. Fiscal austerity is the only cure (economic growth can go a long way to help as well) as the massive budget deficits and national debt will force difficult, but necessary, cuts to federal government spending and thus employment. The labor market’s recovery will help continue to boost retail sales, and more discretionary spending in general will help to ease budget crunches in Tallahassee and provide revenue necessary for Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

strategic investments in Florida’s economy. As we have discussed in previous Florida forecasts, the housing market’s recovery will be bolstered by that of the labor market. Florida’s economy is poised to break away from the economic ennui of the U.S. economic recovery, and in 2013 the evidence will continue to mount, indicating that we are doing just that. When it finally does, I don’t think any of us will take that economic growth for granted.

G ross Stat e P r oduct Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, shifted from contraction to expansion in 2010 as the recession finally loosened its grip on the state. Growth was modest that year and became even more so in 2011, with full year growth expected at just 0.5%. To put that growth in perspective, in 2003-2005 Real GSP grew at an average rate of 5.3% with 2005 being the peak year for growth as the economy then grew at an emerging economy pace of 6.1%. In 2013, confidence and a burgeoning labor market recovery will both be back in place allowing for stronger growth of 2.1% and finally back to some Florida-like growth in 2014 and 2015 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.0% and 3.9% respectively. The burden of lost wealth Florida’s consumers have to overcome in most cases is substantially higher than consumers in other states around the nation, and housing prices have shown signs of at least stabilizing, if not showing some, albeit slight, upward movement. The destruction of home equity wealth blew a large crater on the balance sheet of Florida’s households. Realistically it will take many years, if not a decade or more, to get that wealth back. Thus, the scars of this recession and housing bubble will be with us for a long time to come. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly, labor markets will improve, and housing prices will benefit from these improving fundamentals. Economic and population growth provides a solid foundation 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

upon which a healthy housing sector can grow. Improving housing prices will in turn feed back into the economy and help the labor market continue to improve a virtuous cycle that will finally supplant the cruel interaction of the past five years. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $902 billion in 2015. The state will cross the trillion dollar threshold for GSP five years from now, in 2017. Demographics, specifically improved domestic and international migration, will continue to fuel the state’s growth. International trade, tourism, healthcare, and ongoing efforts to diversify the state’s economic base will help broaden sources of economic growth in the future and continue to push the economy forward in the years and decades to come.

P e rs o nal In co me, Retail Sale s , and Auto Sales Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter continued to decelerate in the first half of 2012 in Florida after doing so in the second half of 2011. Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2012 through the end of 2015. Year-over-year growth lost a bit of momentum in 2012, but after personal income growth builds in 2013 with growth of 4.7%, picks up more steam in 2014 when it is expected to grow 5.3%, and then accelerates further in 2015 to 5.6%. Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through 2012. But in 2013 the positions reverse, and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.6% higher than the nation through 2015. The year 2013 will be the first year since 2006 that personal income growth in Florida will be higher than the national rate. Personal income will reach nearly $903 billion in 2015 - a year that will see personal income grow by $48.1 billion. Real disposable income growth, weighed down by the recession and its aftermath, increased by just 1.3% in 2010, but this was the first growth since 2006. Growth did not maintain this pace. In 2011 and 2012 disposable income growth will average 0.9%. Average growth during 2013-2015 will be 3.4%. Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will be a

F l o r id a Summ a r y

drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon and beyond. Addressing the nation’s deficit and debt problems cannot be achieved through spending cuts alone. Financial markets have made a strong recovery from the nadir of the financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in the first week of March in 2009, but has since climbed back up to the 13,000 level. The bond market has also performed strongly, and as a result, overall financial asset values held by U.S. households have exceeded their pre-crisis highs. The housing market in Florida has made no such comeback and housing prices may have touched their bottom. Lost home equity could take decades to recover. In Florida, this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending for many years to come. Florida’s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market shifts into a mode with private sector job creation accelerating, it will boost consumer confidence and spending. The improved sentiment will help to unlock more of the pent-up consumer spending that stemmed from employment insecurity. High oil and gasoline prices have continued to burden Florida’s consumers and the economy will feel this pain at the pump. The level that prices maintain and how long they remain there will determine the extent of the impact on consumer spending. If high prices are going to be persistent, the drag on economic and job growth will be greater. If the showdown with Iran over its nuclear program leads to military action in the Persian Gulf, the resultant spike in energy prices could very well undermine the economic recovery in Florida and the nation. Retail sales in Florida will grow at 4.7% in 2012, part of which will be due to higher gasoline expenditures because of rising prices, but also as a result of the venting of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and visitors. Once the labor market recovery has fully ramped up, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the

economy. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 4.0% during 2014-2015. Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, the ongoing improvement should help bolster sales tax revenues and alleviate budget constraints in Tallahassee. As the economy has recovered, consumers’ pent-up demand and replacement need for automobiles and light trucks continues to be released. Replacement need and a sense of stability in the economy have driven this demand. The year 2010 was the start of a multi-year rise in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2012-2015, averaging nearly 10.9%. In 2015, registrations will reach 1.35 million, representing an increase of over 650,000 registrations from the 2009 nadir, but still not higher than the level of registrations during the height of the housing boom (1.45 million in 2005). That number of registrations will be surpassed in 2016.

Emp loy m en t Overall, average payroll employment fell for three consecutive years beginning in 2008 through 2010. From peak month to trough month Florida shed nearly 925,000 payroll jobs. Payroll job growth took root in 2011. Job growth was tepid, but consistent over the year. Full year job growth for 2011 averaged 1.1%. In 2012, job growth has wavered, but is expected to come in at a positive 0.9%. The year 2013 will mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will reach 2.5% in 2015 as it gradually accelerates to that point. The long-suffering Construction sector still has another year of job losses before it finally joins in the labor market’s recovery. The sector has been losing jobs in a dramatic manner after peaking during the housing boom; it will be six straight years of job losses; 2013 will mark the turnaround in the Construction sector as recovery gets underway. Job growth will return to the Construction sector Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r id a Summ a r y

in the 2nd quarter of 2013; construction will be the caboose as far as the private sector jobs train is concerned. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -5.9% in 2012 to 1.1% in 2013, 10.2% in 2014, and 14.8% in 2015. The 2015 growth rate appears large, but it is calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2015, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously surpassed in 1995, 20 years earlier. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s 2nd fastest growing sector through 2015, behind Construction, whose growth rates are from a depleted base. Job growth in the Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 4.6% during 2012-2015. Job gains here will be modest initially, but are expected to accelerate. The full year of 2012 will turn in job growth at 3.1%. Growth will accelerate and reach 4.4% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. The year 2015 will see growth hit 6.0% in this white collar sector. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 2nd quarter of 2014. The Information sector shed jobs in 2011 and will continue to do so until the third quarter of 2012. Structural changes in the industry haunt this sector as technology has evolved and news comes in the form of tweets and blog posts rather than in newsprint. The limits of cutbacks at newspapers and magazines may have been reached as somebody has to write the news stories that are increasingly read on tablet computers and smart phones. Other sources of growth within this sector, such as software, will eventually help compensate. Job growth should return to the Information sector year-over-year in 2012, and this will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in eleven prior years, including six straight years of net job losses leading up to 2012. Job growth will jump to 1.9% in 2013 and will average just 2.0% in 2013-2015. The one sector that has consistently generated jobs throughout the recession and is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2015 is the Health and Education sector. During 2012-2015, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

rate of 2.0%. School budgets will likely constrain employment levels in the education side of the sector as schools face significant revenue constraints due to the housing sector’s ongoing malaise and its impact on property tax based revenue that funds school districts. It is still uncertain as to precisely how national politics and the legal system will ultimately affect healthcare in Florida. Federal and state budget battles will continue to put Medicare and Medicaid expenditures in the spotlight. The focus will necessarily be on gaining efficiency and controlling the cost of delivering these services. However, with some momentum toward expanding coverage and the age structure of our population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the near to intermediate term. This demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector. Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida through 2011. Global competition and efficiency gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of contraction as productive as it has been in many years. This improved competitiveness, despite a weakening of expansions in emerging economies and a European recession, will help drive job growth as exports should nonetheless continue to rise, albeit at a diminished pace. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.1% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by a slightly stronger year of job growth in 2013, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.4%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to gain jobs in 2014 and 2015, when job growth is expected to average 1.6%. The budget impaired Government sector has been set upon by revenue crunches that run from the state level down to counties and small cities. Job losses will persist in the State and Local Government sector through 2013 when growth will be -0.1%. From that point, growth will turn weakly positive and average 0.5% during 2014-2015. No such reversal of fortune is in the cards for

F l o r id a Summ a r y

Federal Government employment growth. Job losses are expected through the end of 2015 and beyond as the U.S. begins to come to grips with massive budget deficits and a ballooning national debt. Federal Government employment in Florida will contract at an average rate of 2.2% during 2012-2015.

U ne mp loy m e n t Unemployment rates in Florida remain elevated, but like the national rate they have come down substantially from their peaks. Part of the problem is that these declines have been largely driven by the shrinking of the labor force, and thus are somewhat misleading when taken out of this context in trying to assess the health of the labor market in Florida. Real Gross State Product has been growing continuously since the 1st quarter of 2010, but only at an average growth rate of 1.0% through 2012. Robust growth is needed to bring down the unemployment rate quickly, and labor force shrinkage notwithstanding, we have not seen the type of growth that can do more than lower the unemployment rate gradually. As of September, the unemployment rate in Florida stood at 8.7% for a 1.7% decline over the span of less than three years.

reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging and protracted process. When discouraged workers re-enter the job hunt there will be upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Although it seems counterintuitive, if the unemployment rate is rising because of this reentry it will actually be a good sign and an indication that the labor market is healing. The unemployment rate is expected to continue a slow, drawn-out decline that will push it down to 7.4% by the end of 2015. This problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers – those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months and those who have given up searching for a job entirely – is substantial. When adding these workers to the top-level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently at 17.0% for the third quarter of 2011 through second quarter of 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This paints a much grimmer picture of the state of the labor market in Florida than does the headline unemployment rate of 8.7%.

The tepid growth Florida has experienced thus far in the recovery will only chip away at the unemployment rate; robust growth is necessary to ratchet the unemployment rate down. This type of growth Florida will not see for at least another year and a half. The labor market cycle generally lags the business cycle overall, but the weak and erratic nature of this recovery and the uncertainty that seems to permeate the economy from the healthcare reform, to the fiscal cliff, to the European debt crisis, has lengthened this jobless recovery well beyond what could be considered a normal lag. As payroll job growth finally gains momentum, it will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search during this long labor market cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully manifested itself, will make Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

690.3

721.1

740.7

Personal Income and GSP 697.3 719.8 752.7 775.5

811.8

854.7

902.8

9.0 7.5

4.5 5.7

2.7 4.6

-5.8 -4.8

3.2 3.8

4.6 5.1

3.0 3.7

4.7 4.1

5.3 4.8

5.6 4.9

671.9

683.5

679.9

639.7

648.0

661.5

669.8

693.1

718.6

747.1

6.1 7.6

1.7 -4.6

-0.5 -0.6

-5.9 -10.1

1.3 12.7

2.1 4.2

1.3 4.1

3.5 4.9

3.7 6.2

4.0 5.9 673.6

598.6

609.0

617.2

590.7

598.3

603.9

609.4

626.3

648.0

Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

6.1

1.7

1.3

-4.3

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.8

3.5

4.0

U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

4.0

2.4

2.4

-2.8

1.8

1.3

1.6

2.2

3.0

3.2

731.5 7.4 707.9 3.9

760.9 4.0 714.6 1.0

748.1 -1.7 689.4 -3.5

726.2 -2.9 652.0 -5.4

736.1 1.4 657.7 0.9

754.3 2.5 661.1 0.5

782.6 3.8 672.4 1.7

814.5 4.1 686.6 2.1

853.3 4.8 707.0 3.0

901.8 5.7 734.4 3.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 3.0 -2.2 -6.0 -0.3 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.3 3.7 0.2 -1.7 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 4.0 6.3 10.4 11.3 10.5 8.7 8.3 8.1

1.7 1.1 7.6

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.3 2.8 3.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

9.0

8.1

7.8

7.5

6.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

-0.7

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.6 -6.5 7.1 0.3 -2.0

0.3 1.6 -8.7 -4.2 -1.5

-3.5 -7.8 -17.2 -7.0 -6.2

-6.3 -11.5 -23.1 -12.7 -10.0

-0.8 -0.5 -11.3 -4.5 -3.6

1.1 4.0 -5.8 0.8 0.2

0.9 1.0 -5.9 1.1 0.9

1.8 1.5 1.1 1.4 0.2

2.0 -1.4 10.2 1.9 -0.7

2.5 -1.9 14.8 1.3 -1.1

1.4 1.4 2.9 2.0 3.1

-5.4 0.1 1.5 1.3 -1.0

-7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -4.6

-14.0 -6.7 -8.0 -6.6 -7.4

-4.9 -2.0 -2.9 0.2 -1.9

1.1 2.8 0.0 2.4 1.4

1.1 2.3 0.8 1.4 1.6

1.9 3.1 2.8 1.5 1.6

3.2 3.5 2.4 0.6 1.2

2.4 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.4

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

4.4 2.7 1.5 -0.9

0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-6.3 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-8.2 1.2 -4.5 -8.6

1.3 1.9 0.5 -4.6

3.6 2.3 2.3 -1.2

3.1 1.4 2.0 0.5

4.7 1.7 1.9 1.9

4.5 2.4 0.4 1.7

6.0 2.4 -0.2 2.2

Federal Gov't.

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.2

7.2

-5.5

-1.7

-2.5

-2.7

-1.9

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.7

-0.8

-0.1

0.2

0.7

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

193.2 -40.5

117.7 -34.6

84.2 -29.1

107.6 43.7

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

203.3

101.4

61.6

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

156.1 47.1

75.2 26.2

4.1

3.4

(%Ch Year ago)

12

Population and Migration 18,184.1 18,385.1 18,540.8 18,682.0 18,870.3 19,085.6 19,316.3 19,581.3 19,885.5 20,221.3 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

154.7 58.5

179.1 19.7

193.3 7.9

224.6 16.3

257.4 14.6

278.0 8.1

33.6

Housing 38.2 41.5

58.9

85.3

119.7

157.2

40.9 20.7

26.8 6.9

31.8 6.4

31.9 9.5

43.0 15.9

56.7 28.7

80.8 38.9

110.8 46.4

4.2

-0.2

Consumer Prices 1.2 3.1

1.9

1.5

1.9

1.8

F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

779.5 3.1 4.0

789.3 4.3 4.7

797.7 4.6 4.0

807.4 4.7 4.1

816.5 4.7 4.2

825.8 4.6 4.2

838.9 5.2 4.7

848.7 5.1 4.7

859.8 5.3 4.8

871.3 5.5 5.0

884.6 5.4 4.8

896.5 5.6 4.9

908.8 5.7 4.9

921.3 5.7 4.8

671.6

679.0

684.5

690.7

695.8

701.3

709.5

714.9

721.5

728.4

736.2

743.6

750.9

757.6

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

1.5 4.1 513.0 4.4 3.6

2.8 4.8 523.0 5.7 3.9

3.5 4.2 528.7 5.5 4.0

3.5 4.8 539.3 6.3 3.4

3.6 5.2 547.7 6.8 2.7

3.3 5.4 557.2 6.5 3.5

3.7 5.5 554.9 5.0 1.8

3.5 6.1 562.1 4.2 1.5

3.7 6.4 567.4 3.6 1.5

3.9 6.7 572.2 2.7 0.6

3.8 6.6 589.6 6.3 3.8

4.0 6.2 597.2 6.3 4.0

4.1 5.8 600.7 5.9 3.8

4.0 5.2 606.8 6.0 4.6

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

786.3 3.9 673.5 2.0

794.0 3.7 676.9 1.5

802.5 4.0 680.7 1.9

810.1 4.1 684.5 2.0

818.3 4.1 688.1 2.2

827.2 4.2 692.9 2.4

836.6 4.2 697.5 2.5

847.4 4.6 703.6 2.8

858.4 4.9 709.8 3.2

871.0 5.3 717.2 3.5

883.3 5.6 723.8 3.8

895.4 5.7 730.9 3.9

907.9 5.8 738.0 4.0

920.7 5.7 745.0 3.9

2.6 0.4 8.6 8.1

2.0 0.2 8.5 8.0

1.5 0.4 8.4 7.9

1.4 1.0 7.8 7.2

1.6 1.1 7.7 7.0

1.8 1.2 7.5 6.9

1.8 1.2 7.4 6.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.4 1.0 8.3 7.8

1.4 1.1 8.3 7.8

1.4 1.1 8.3 7.8

1.3 1.1 8.2 7.7

1.3 1.1 8.1 7.6

1.3 1.0 8.0 7.5

1.3 1.0 7.9 7.3

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

1.4 1.1

1.4 0.9

1.2 1.4

1.4 1.8

1.5 2.0

1.6 2.1

1.6 2.0

1.5 2.0

1.6 2.0

1.7 2.2

1.7 2.3

1.8 2.5

1.8 2.6

1.8 2.6

2.3 -5.4 1.1 1.8 0.8

3.5 -5.9 0.9 1.4 0.6

3.1 -4.5 0.6 1.4 0.1

1.6 0.1 1.2 0.0 1.9

0.9 3.0 1.7 -0.2 2.7

0.3 5.6 1.9 -0.4 3.1

-0.6 7.5 2.3 -0.4 3.7

-1.3 9.4 1.9 -0.7 3.2

-1.7 11.1 1.8 -0.9 3.1

-2.0 12.7 1.7 -1.0 3.0

-2.0 14.1 1.4 -1.1 2.7

-1.9 15.0 1.4 -1.1 2.6

-1.9 15.3 1.2 -1.1 2.3

-1.8 14.8 1.1 -1.0 2.1

2.3 1.4 1.1 2.1 3.6

2.0 1.3 0.3 1.7 3.6

1.6 3.0 1.1 1.8 5.1

3.3 3.1 1.6 1.5 4.7

3.8 2.5 1.8 1.5 4.6

3.9 2.7 1.7 1.5 4.6

3.7 2.4 1.0 1.4 4.2

3.5 2.3 0.7 1.3 4.2

3.4 2.3 0.4 1.2 4.6

3.4 2.6 0.4 0.9 5.2

3.6 2.9 0.4 0.7 5.9

3.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 6.2

3.8 3.0 0.8 0.3 6.2

3.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 5.9

0.9 1.9 0.9 -2.2 -0.2

0.6 2.3 1.9 -2.1 -0.6

1.3 2.2 2.0 -2.2 -0.1

1.4 2.4 2.4 -2.3 -0.1

2.0 1.7 2.0 -2.6 -0.1

1.9 1.3 1.3 -2.8 0.1

2.4 1.0 0.6 -2.8 0.1

2.5 0.5 1.5 -2.7 0.2

2.3 0.2 2.2 -2.7 0.2

2.4 -0.1 2.6 -2.6 0.4

2.1 -0.2 2.8 -2.3 0.5

2.3 -0.2 2.1 -2.0 0.7

2.6 -0.2 1.9 -1.8 0.8

2.6 -0.1 2.1 -1.5 0.9

Population and Migration 19,345.9 19,409.8 19,476.1 19,544.7 19,615.5 19,689.0 19,765.0 19,843.7 19,925.1 20,008.2 20,092.4 20,177.8 20,264.1 20,351.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Net Migration (thous)

50.2

51.4

53.3

55.2

57.0

59.1

61.2

63.4

65.6

67.2

68.2

69.2

70.0

70.6

(%Ch Year ago)

11.7

13.5

16.8

20.0

13.5

15.0

14.8

14.9

15.1

13.7

11.4

9.1

6.7

5.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

61.1 45.0

66.8 47.4

73.7 49.6

81.3 53.6

90.0 59.5

96.3 64.0

104.5 68.9

114.1 76.4

124.8 84.6

135.5 93.2

144.8 100.7

153.7 108.2

162.2 114.9

168.0 119.5

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

16.2

19.3

24.1

27.7

30.5

32.3

35.6

37.7

40.2

42.3

44.2

45.5

47.3

48.5

1.7

1.8

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.7

Consumer Prices 1.9 2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.8

Housing

(%Ch Year ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,349.5 7,382.5 7,420.5 7,457.8 7,496.4 7,534.7 7,569.5 7,606.7 7,648.1 7,698.2 7,745.4 7,794.2 7,846.0 7,899.3

Manufacturing

314.6

315.7

316.0

318.3

320.0

321.7

323.4

324.3

325.6

327.0

328.0

328.9

329.6

330.6

Durable Goods

207.6

208.6

209.1

211.4

213.2

215.0

216.9

218.2

219.7

221.4

222.7

223.8

224.9

226.1

Wood Products

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.8

9.1

9.4

9.8

10.1

10.6

11.2

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

Computer & Electronics

43.0

42.8

42.9

42.8

42.5

42.2

42.2

42.0

41.9

41.9

42.1

42.2

42.3

42.4

Transportation Equipment

35.2

35.4

35.7

36.2

36.7

37.1

37.4

37.7

38.0

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.0

107.0

107.1

106.9

106.9

106.8

106.6

106.5

106.2

105.9

105.6

105.3

105.0

104.7

104.5

30.1

30.1

30.2

30.2

30.3

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.5

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,034.9 7,066.8 7,104.5 7,139.5 7,176.4 7,213.0 7,246.2 7,282.4 7,322.5 7,371.2 7,417.4 7,465.3 7,516.4 7,568.6 5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

Construction

306.2

305.4

307.2

310.6

315.4

322.4

330.3

339.9

350.5

363.3

377.0

390.7

404.2

417.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

235.7

237.7

240.0

242.5

244.7

246.9

248.9

251.0

253.1

255.4

257.9

260.2

262.6

265.1

Wholesale Trade

326.7

330.2

332.3

335.0

338.1

340.1

342.1

344.2

346.1

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

Retail Trade

970.2

973.6

979.1

982.5

987.5

989.7

989.2

989.8

991.3

993.2

993.1

994.9

998.7 1,004.6

Information

134.9

135.4

137.1

137.6

137.5

137.2

137.9

139.7

140.5

140.7

141.8

142.7

143.2

Prof. & Bus. Services

143.6

1,092.2 1,104.1 1,117.4 1,130.4 1,142.4 1,154.7 1,163.9 1,177.6 1,195.0 1,214.8 1,232.8 1,250.6 1,269.2 1,286.0

Admin. & Support

540.9

550.3

559.1

567.5

574.6

580.6

588.6

599.1

613.4

629.3

646.8

663.0

680.7

696.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

467.3

469.7

474.2

478.7

483.6

489.9

490.9

493.9

497.0

500.9

501.2

502.6

503.4

504.2

84.0

84.0

84.1

84.1

84.1

84.2

84.4

84.5

84.6

84.7

84.8

84.9

85.1

85.1

Financial Activities

492.2

494.0

496.0

497.3

499.3

501.4

502.7

504.0

505.2

506.0

506.3

506.2

506.5

506.9

Real Estate & Rent

157.0

157.8

158.4

159.1

160.1

161.0

161.8

162.8

163.7

164.6

165.1

165.6

166.2

166.8

Fin. & Insurance

335.2

336.2

337.6

338.2

339.3

340.5

340.9

341.2

341.5

341.4

341.1

340.5

340.4

340.1

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,120.1 1,127.5 1,130.6 1,136.1 1,142.7 1,149.1 1,158.2 1,164.3 1,169.0 1,176.8 1,182.9 1,191.4 1,199.4 1,207.9

Education Services

153.1

152.6

152.3

152.0

151.7

151.3

Health Services

967.0

974.9

978.2

984.0

990.9

997.8 1,007.3 1,014.1 1,019.4 1,027.6 1,034.1 1,043.1 1,051.5 1,060.4

Leisure & Hospitality

974.3

980.2

985.0

989.0

990.9

993.3

994.7

993.9

992.4

992.3

993.0

991.6

990.9

991.4

Other Services

303.6

304.4

305.5

305.9

306.8

307.8

308.6

309.3

310.0

309.7

309.9

310.2

310.4

310.6

Government

150.8

150.2

149.6

149.2

148.8

148.3

147.9

147.5

1,086.8 1,084.9 1,084.0 1,083.2 1,082.5 1,082.2 1,081.7 1,081.2 1,081.4 1,082.3 1,083.4 1,085.3 1,087.2 1,089.0

Federal Gov't.

131.3

130.5

129.6

128.7

127.8

126.9

126.0

125.2

124.4

123.6

123.0

122.6

122.2

121.8

State & Local Gov't

955.5

954.4

954.4

954.5

954.7

955.3

955.7

956.1

957.0

958.7

960.3

962.7

965.0

967.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s

Table 4. Employment Annual

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,994.9

8,019.7

7,736.1

7,249.3

7,192.9

7274.3

7,342.6

7,477.4

7,630.6

7,821.2

Manufacturing

416.5

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

311.4

314.7

319.0

325.1

329.3

Durable Goods

284.7

269.3

249.3

214.4

203.6

205.8

208.1

212.2

219.1

224.4

Wood Products

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.2

9.0

10.4

11.9

Computer & Electronics

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.7

43.0

43.1

43.0

42.6

42.0

42.2

Transportation Equipment

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.0

36.4

37.8

38.1

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

105.6

106.6

106.8

106.0

104.9

31.2

31.4

29.6

27.9

27.5

28.6

29.8

30.3

30.4

30.4

7,578.4

7,620.7

7,365.0

6,925.4

6,883.9

6,962.9

7,027.9

7,158.4

7,305.6

7,491.9

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.6

Construction

682.1

622.8

515.8

396.6

350.7

330.2

310.8

313.9

346.0

397.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

250.9

251.1

245.9

229.4

224.7

230.9

236.1

243.5

252.1

261.5

Wholesale Trade

351.3

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

1,013.8

1,027.0

997.4

931.6

933.8

956.5

969.9

984.7

990.9

997.8

161.8

161.3

155.8

142.4

135.7

134.1

134.7

137.3

139.7

142.8

1,158.3

1,166.1

1,092.8

1,002.6

1,015.7

1,052.6

1,084.8

1,136.2

1,187.8

1,259.6

Admin. & Support

627.4

624.7

553.5

491.8

504.6

526.0

538.7

570.5

607.6

671.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

451.6

460.3

456.5

430.9

432.1

445.4

462.5

481.6

495.7

502.9

79.3

81.0

82.8

79.9

79.1

81.2

83.7

84.1

84.6

85.0

Financial Activities

554.8

549.2

524.1

485.4

476.1

482.9

490.9

498.5

504.5

506.5

Real Estate & Rent

182.5

178.1

169.9

154.9

150.3

151.8

155.9

159.7

163.2

165.9

Fin. & Insurance

372.2

371.1

354.2

330.5

325.8

331.1

335.0

338.9

341.3

340.5

Edu. & Health Service

996.4

1,027.1

1,048.5

1,061.1

1,081.1

1,105.9

1,121.0

1,139.6

1,167.1

1,195.4

Education Services

129.9

135.7

139.6

144.6

151.5

154.1

153.6

151.9

150.0

148.1

Health Services

866.5

891.4

908.9

916.5

929.6

951.8

967.5

987.7

1,017.1

1,047.3

Leisure & Hospitality

964.9

983.9

970.5

926.6

931.0

952.3

971.0

989.5

993.4

991.7

Other Services

338.1

345.7

335.6

312.5

309.2

306.5

305.1

306.5

309.4

310.3

1,099.4

1,123.2

1,126.9

1,113.9

1,111.7

1,096.9

1,086.9

1,083.0

1,081.7

1,086.2

Federal Gov't.

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.6

142.2

133.8

131.5

128.2

124.8

122.4

State & Local Gov't

971.6

995.2

997.1

981.3

969.5

963.1

955.4

954.7

956.9

963.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

779.5

789.3

797.7

807.4

816.5

825.8

838.9

848.7

859.8

871.3

884.6

896.5

908.8

921.3

Wages & Salaries

347.8

351.3

355.5

359.5

363.4

367.4

371.6

375.8

380.1

385.0

390.2

395.3

400.6

405.7

Other Labor Income

78.9

79.8

81.0

82.1

83.1

84.2

85.9

87.1

88.2

89.5

91.0

92.6

94.3

96.0

Nonfarm

45.0

45.6

46.2

46.9

47.6

48.3

49.1

50.0

50.8

51.7

52.5

53.4

54.1

54.8

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

Farm Property Income

198.3

202.3

205.1

207.7

210.0

212.4

215.1

217.7

221.6

225.2

229.5

233.3

237.5

241.5

Transfer Payments

155.3

156.5

158.1

160.0

161.6

163.2

169.1

170.7

172.3

173.7

178.9

180.2

181.6

183.4

48.4

48.7

50.9

51.5

51.9

52.6

54.7

55.4

56.0

56.8

60.5

61.4

62.2

63.1

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

671.6

679.0

684.5

690.7

695.8

701.3

709.5

714.9

721.5

728.4

736.2

743.6

750.9

757.6

Wages & Salaries

299.6

302.2

305.1

307.5

309.7

312.0

314.3

316.5

318.9

321.9

324.8

327.9

331.0

333.6

Other Labor Income

68.0

68.7

69.5

70.2

70.8

71.5

72.6

73.3

74.0

74.8

75.8

76.8

77.9

79.0

Nonfarm

38.8

39.3

39.7

40.2

40.5

41.0

41.5

42.1

42.6

43.2

43.7

44.3

44.7

45.1

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Farm Property Income

170.9

174.0

176.0

177.7

179.0

180.4

181.9

183.3

185.9

188.3

191.0

193.5

196.2

198.6

Transfer Payments

133.8

134.6

135.6

136.9

137.7

138.6

143.0

143.8

144.6

145.2

148.9

149.5

150.1

150.8

41.7

41.9

43.7

44.0

44.3

44.7

46.2

46.7

47.0

47.5

50.4

50.9

51.4

51.9

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1061.38 1093.55 1135.71 1176.95 1205.48 1219.12 1245.68 1274.32 1300.73 1322.33 1333.43 1344.41 1352.76 1365.78 Retail Sales (Billions $)

276.9

278.2

281.2

283.6

286.3

288.7

291.2

294.3

297.6

300.6

303.4

306.3

309.7

313.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

238.6

239.3

241.3

242.6

243.9

245.2

246.3

247.9

249.7

251.3

252.5

254.0

255.9

257.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a Summ a r y T a b l e s

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

690.3

721.1

740.7

697.3

719.8

752.7

775.5

811.8

854.7

902.8

Wages & Salaries

333.1

344.7

339.8

322.3

325.5

336.6

346.3

361.5

378.1

398.0

Other Labor Income

72.9

73.1

74.4

74.2

75.1

77.0

78.7

82.6

87.6

93.5

Nonfarm

45.1

43.7

41.0

37.3

41.0

42.7

44.9

47.3

50.4

53.7

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

Property Income

181.7

196.5

211.2

172.0

176.5

186.7

196.5

208.8

219.9

235.5

Transfer Payments

104.4

111.2

122.5

138.2

149.1

153.6

154.8

160.7

171.5

181.0

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.1

46.5

48.1

51.7

55.7

61.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

671.9

683.5

679.9

639.7

648.0

661.5

669.8

693.1

718.6

747.1

Wages & Salaries

324.3

326.7

311.9

295.7

293.0

295.8

299.1

308.6

317.9

329.3

Other Labor Income

71.0

69.3

68.3

68.0

67.6

67.6

68.0

70.5

73.7

77.4

Nonfarm

43.9

41.4

37.6

34.2

36.9

37.5

38.8

40.3

42.4

44.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

Property Income

176.8

186.3

193.9

157.8

158.9

164.1

169.7

178.3

184.9

194.8

Transfer Payments

101.6

105.4

112.4

126.7

134.2

135.0

133.7

137.2

144.2

149.8

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.1

40.8

41.5

44.2

46.8

51.1

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

695.08

848.54

Farm

Social Insurance

900.35 1047.84 1184.31 1285.77 1349.10

Retail Sales (Billions $)

257.7

262.3

255.6

232.3

244.4

263.0

275.3

284.9

295.9

308.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

250.8

248.7

234.6

213.1

220.0

231.1

237.8

243.3

248.8

255.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

9%

250.0

8%

200.0

7%

150.0

6%

100.0

5%

50.0

4%

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3%

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

22

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Population (Thousands)

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1% -1% -4% -6% -8%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

F l o r id a N e w s Summ a r i e s Dispute over Medicaid billing backlog continues • HB 5301 was an Act passed by the Florida Legislature that attempted to collect more than $316 million in unpaid Medicaid bills from Florida’s 67 counties.

• Auto loans had fallen cumulatively about 8.3 percent between 2007 and 2011; in that same time period, mortgage loans have been flat. • Florida credit unions have added 143,000 new members over the past 12 months, with the total at a record 4.68 million members.

• The bills were reduced to $146.4 million over the summer; however, some Florida counties are still engaged in a lawsuit because they believe they are still being overbilled.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 11, 2012

• Counties may continue their lawsuit or they may settle with the Agency of Healthcare Administration and pay through their preferred revenue source.

SPC will oversee $15 million federal job training grant to Florida community colleges

Source: The Florida Current, September 13, 2012 Legislators plan to take hard look at gambling • Republican leaders in the State Legislature are planning on doing a comprehensive review of state gambling laws and the compact with the Seminole tribe. • The current compact with the Seminoles, which expires in 2015, gives them the exclusive right to table games in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in exchange for annual payments to the state and local governments. The yearly revenue to the state is $223 million.

• Florida received a $15 million federal grant to help a consortium of twelve community colleges develop and expand innovative training programs in advanced manufacturing. • The grant is part of a nationwide, $2 billion commitment by the Department of Labor that began last year. The Department will continue funding $500 million annually for two more years. • St. Petersburg College will receive $6 million of those funds, some of which will help the college administer the grant for the consortium. About $2.5 million will go to developing new courses and purchasing new equipment.

Source: The Ledger, July 24, 2012

Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 20, 2012

China trade deficit costs Florida 106,100 jobs

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam hopes to diversify Florida’s energy

• According to a report by the Economic Policy Institute, 106,000 jobs have been lost in Florida since 2001 due to the trade deficit with China. • 2.7 million net jobs were lost by the United States in this period. Florida was the 5th most affected state. • Most of the jobs lost by the U.S. have been in manufacturing. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 30, 2012 Mortgage relief mostly for homeowners delinquent on their payments • $8.4 billion in principal reduction, refinances, and debt forgiveness paid out by the nation’s five largest banks as part of the National Mortgage Settlement. • Relief will mostly go to homeowners who have stopped paying their obligations. • Banks are focusing their relief efforts on delinquent borrowers as an incentive to get them to continue payments and stay afloat. Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 31, 2012

• In an interview, the Florida Agriculture Commissioner described wanting to take an “all-of-the-above approach” toward energy policy. • In addition to lowering the price of renewable fuels such as solar power, the Commissioner also wants to expand Florida’s fleet of natural gas-powered vehicles, clean coal, and nuclear power options. • Reliability is also a top priority in Florida, which is susceptible to lightning, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Source: Florida Trend, August 26, 2012 American Airlines laying off 1,400 in Florida • According to a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Notice, the commercial carrier will be laying off 1,414 workers in the State of Florida. • The layoffs will be statewide and will occur between November 16 and December 16 of this year. • American Airlines is the fifth-largest commercial carrier at the Orlando International Airport. Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 19, 2012

Florida credit unions rebound in auto, mortgage lending • According to a report from the League of Southeastern Credit Unions, Florida credit unions had their first quarterly growth in auto loans since 2007 and their first growth in mortgage loans since 2009. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Metros

Oc tobe r 2 012

F l o r id a F ORE C AS T

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.5 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.1. Average annual wage will be the second lowest level of the studied areas at 40.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent. Population growth will be third lowest among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 0.7 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 12,477.95 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 • Halifax Medical Center – 3,957 • Volusia County Government – 3,280 • Publix – 2,486 • State of Florida – 2,361 • Daytona State College – 1,797 • U.S. Government – 1,422 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. Unemployment will average 8.6 percent.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.4 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 2.4 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. The Leisure and Federal Government sectors are the only sectors expected to experience a decline at -0.2 percent and -3.8 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Local jobless rates drop, but so do number of workers, jobs • Flagler County’s jobless rate dipped slightly to 12.4 percent in August – the first time in three months that it was lower than the previous month – as fewer area residents sought work. • In July, Flagler County had the second worst unemployment rate among the state’s 67 counties. However it is significantly lower than the 14.7 percent rate in August of last year. • While the lower local jobless rate is good news, it is tempered by the fact that the declines were primarily caused by a drop in the labor force with fewer job seekers and not job creation.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

• Volusia County’s labor force of 251,640 workers in August was 2,355 fewer than in July. Flagler County’s labor force of 33,801 workers in August was 228 fewer than in July.

• Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO), headquartered in Tampa and in Daytona Beach, offers insurance and reinsurance services products and services.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, August 10, 2012

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, August 5, 2012

Unemployed vets turn out for job fair

Daytona International Speedway proposes big changes

• The first job fair hosted in Daytona for unemployed Veterans recently took place. Before this quarter veterans had to seek employment at job fairs in Orlando.

• Roughly 8.9 percent of veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan are unemployed, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. • There are an estimated 55,000 military veterans in Volusia and Flagler counties, and it is estimated 15 to 20 percent of them are unemployed, homeless or both. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, August 25, 2012

Alliance aims to unite, boost small businesses • Hometown Business Alliance, a national organization with a focus on businessnetworking, launched its Volusia County chapter on Sept. 11.

• Hometown Business Alliance is a business-tobusiness membership referral program that is designed to appeal to small business owners. The organization includes 15 ambassadors from varying businesses and sectors.

• Some of the differences between his organization and a membership with the chamber of commerce include the HBA’s ability to provide a bartering system among members that cannot afford expansion costs, as well as discounts between member businesses. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, August 10, 2012

Brown & Brown buys Texas Security

• Texas Security, based in San Antonio, is a wholesale brokerage with annual revenue of about $5.8 million. It serves independent insurance agents offering personal and commercial lines throughout Texas, and offers claims management services. 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

• The Daytona International Speedway is looking to revamp its track and transform the land just north of International Speedway Boulevard in the coming years. • The speedway has submitted rezoning requests that could potentially build a combined 2 million square feet of retail space, 1,785 hotel rooms and 1,600 residential units. A casino could also be considered should it be legalized in Florida. • In regards to changes at the racetrack, Speedway officials will ask the Daytona Beach Planning Board to approve a redesign of the grandstands.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, September 2, 2012

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

1.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Deltona Payroll Employment

1.4

(Millions 2000 $)

13500.0 13000.0 12500.0 12000.0 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

(percent)

12.0%

1

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3

16.1 5.4 6.1 10.0

16.6 2.8 6.0 10.6

15.6 -6.0 5.6 9.9

15.9 2.2 5.7 10.2

16.7 4.6 5.9 10.7

17.1 2.6 6.0 11.1

17.9 4.5 6.2 11.6

18.8 5.2 6.5 12.3

19.9 5.6 6.9 13.0

21.1 6.3 7.2 13.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 4.4

15.3 2.7

15.2 -0.4

14.3 -6.1

14.3 0.3

14.6 2.1

14.8 0.8

15.3 3.3

15.8 3.6

16.4 4.0

17.2 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.9 30.1

32.4 30.7

33.4 30.6

31.5 28.9

32.2 29.0

33.7 29.6

34.5 29.8

35.9 30.7

37.4 31.5

39.0 32.3

40.7 33.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.0 6.1

35.3 3.8

35.8 1.5

35.6 -0.6

36.6 2.9

37.7 3.1

38.5 2.0

39.5 2.6

40.5 2.6

41.6 2.7

42.8 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.8 -3.3

157.3 -5.7

154.5 -1.8

156.4 1.2

154.6 -1.1

157.1 1.6

160.1 1.9

163.9 2.3

168.0 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -14.0

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.2

8.2 1.6

8.4 1.8

8.6 2.1

8.7 1.4

8.8 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

163.3 1.6

162.2 -0.7

157.7 -2.7

149.5 -5.2

147.0 -1.7

148.3 0.8

146.4 -1.3

148.7 1.6

151.5 1.9

155.1 2.4

159.2 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.8 -11.7

7.3 -6.2

7.1 -3.4

7.1 1.0

7.8 10.0

9.0 14.1

10.0 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 0.0

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30.0 -0.5

30.2 0.7

29.8 -1.2

30.2 1.2

30.4 0.9

30.9 1.5

31.7 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.0 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.8 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.5 1.8

4.8 23.1 1.9

4.8 23.4 2.0

4.9 23.5 2.0

5.1 23.6 2.1

5.3 24.1 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 8.4

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2.0 -10.9

2.0 -1.2

2.0 -1.4

2.0 1.5

2.1 2.0

2.1 3.0

2.2 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 7.2

8.0 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.2 1.3

7.3 0.9

7.5 2.1

7.6 1.7

7.6 0.7

7.7 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 -0.9

18.0 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.9 -3.0

17.2 1.8

16.4 -4.8

17.0 3.8

17.8 4.3

18.9 6.4

19.9 5.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.6 0.4

32.3 2.0

32.1 -0.6

32.7 2.0

33.5 2.4

34.2 2.1

35.1 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.1 -0.4

22.0 4.1

21.6 -1.5

22.0 1.4

21.9 -0.3

21.8 -0.6

21.7 -0.4

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1.0

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.9 -3.2

7.9 -0.3

7.9 1.0

8.0 1.2

8.1 0.6

8.2 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0.0

1.4 2.4

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.3

1.2 -10.3

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -1.3

1.1 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4.0

21.1 -5.0

20.7 -1.7

20.9 0.7

21.0 0.7

21.1 0.5

21.2 0.5

21.4 0.9

21.7 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13131.2

13177.7

12733.5

12040.6

11974.1

12009.9

12027.2

12245.5

12585.7

13053.4

13565.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.0 1.6

498.4 0.7

497.0 -0.3

494.8 -0.4

494.5 -0.1

494.8 0.1

495.0 0.0

497.3 0.5

502.4 1.0

509.5 1.4

519.3 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

247.2 1.8

253.4 2.5

254.7 0.5

252.0 -1.0

251.2 -0.3

254.1 1.1

250.5 -1.4

253.2 1.0

258.3 2.0

262.9 1.8

266.6 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

32

3.2

4.0

6.5

10.6

11.6

10.8

9.1

8.8

8.6

8.1

7.6

4268.0 3109.9 1158.0

2184.9 1594.7 590.0

1399.3 1036.5 363.0

662.2 602.1 60.0

720.4 659.1 61.0

1038.4 505.0 533.0

826.1 690.2 136.0

1711.2 1373.6 338.0

3054.6 2338.4 716.0

4142.5 3195.3 947.0

4690.5 3592.1 1098.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r m o n d B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.2 2.6 6 11.2

17.4 3.6 6.1 11.3

17.6 4.6 6.1 11.4

17.8 4.5 6.2 11.6

18 4.5 6.3 11.7

18.2 4.4 6.4 11.8

18.5 5.1 6.4 12.1

18.7 5.1 6.5 12.2

18.9 5.2 6.6 12.3

19.1 5.4 6.6 12.5

19.4 5.2 6.7 12.7

19.7 5.6 6.8 12.9

20 5.7 6.9 13.1

20.3 6 7 13.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 1

15 2.1

15.1 3.5

15.2 3.3

15.3 3.4

15.4 3.1

15.6 3.6

15.7 3.5

15.9 3.6

16 3.7

16.2 3.6

16.4 4

16.5 4.1

16.7 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.7 29.9

35.1 30.2

35.4 30.4

35.8 30.6

36.1 30.8

36.4 30.9

36.9 31.2

37.2 31.4

37.6 31.5

37.9 31.7

38.4 32

38.8 32.2

39.2 32.4

39.6 32.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.6 1.3

38.9 2.5

39.1 2.7

39.4 2.6

39.6 2.6

39.9 2.6

40.1 2.5

40.4 2.6

40.6 2.6

40.9 2.7

41.2 2.6

41.5 2.7

41.8 2.8

42.1 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

154.6 -1.3

155.3 -1.9

156 1.1

156.8 1.7

157.5 1.9

158.3 1.9

159 2

159.7 1.9

160.4 1.8

161.3 1.9

162.2 2

163.3 2.3

164.4 2.5

165.5 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 2.1

8.3 1.4

8.3 1.5

8.4 1.6

8.4 2.1

8.5 2.2

8.5 2.6

8.6 2.1

8.6 2

8.6 1.9

8.7 1.4

8.7 1.5

8.7 1.4

8.8 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

146.4 -1.5

147 -2.1

147.6 1

148.4 1.7

149.1 1.9

149.8 1.9

150.5 1.9

151.1 1.8

151.8 1.8

152.7 1.9

153.6 2.1

154.6 2.3

155.7 2.6

156.7 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7 -4.2

6.9 -4.3

7 -3.7

7.1 -0.2

7.2 2.7

7.3 5.4

7.5 7.3

7.7 9.2

7.9 10.8

8.2 12.5

8.5 13.5

8.8 14.2

9.1 14.7

9.4 14.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.7 -1.5

29.8 -2.1

30 -0.4

30.1 1.8

30.3 1.8

30.3 1.7

30.4 1.3

30.4 0.9

30.5 0.7

30.6 0.8

30.7 1

30.8 1.3

31 1.7

31.2 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 23 1.9

4.8 23.1 1.9

4.8 23.2 1.9

4.8 23.3 2

4.9 23.4 2

4.9 23.5 2

4.9 23.5 2

4.9 23.5 2

4.9 23.5 2

5 23.5 2

5 23.5 2

5.1 23.6 2.1

5.1 23.7 2.1

5.1 23.8 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -0.6

2 -3.2

2 0.9

2 2.3

2 1.6

2 1

2 0.6

2.1 1.7

2.1 2.7

2.1 3.2

2.1 3.4

2.1 2.8

2.1 2.7

2.1 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.8

7.4 0.7

7.4 1.8

7.4 2.2

7.5 2.2

7.5 2.2

7.5 1.9

7.6 1.9

7.6 1.7

7.6 1.2

7.6 0.8

7.6 0.6

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -6

16.6 -6.8

16.8 1.8

17 4.6

17.1 4.5

17.3 4.5

17.4 4

17.6 4

17.9 4.4

18.2 4.9

18.4 5.8

18.8 6.4

19.1 6.7

19.4 6.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.1 -0.9

32.3 0

32.4 2.2

32.6 1.6

32.8 2.2

33 2.1

33.3 2.6

33.4 2.4

33.6 2.3

33.8 2.4

33.9 2

34.1 2.1

34.3 2.2

34.5 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -1.1

21.8 -3

21.9 2.1

22 1.8

22 1.1

22 0.7

22 0.5

21.9 -0.2

21.9 -0.6

21.8 -0.8

21.8 -0.8

21.8 -0.7

21.7 -0.5

21.7 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -0.4

7.9 -2.2

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.8

8 1.4

8 1.4

8 1.3

8 1.4

8.1 1.3

8.1 0.9

8.1 0.7

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.4

8.1 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.2 -8.4

1.2 -9.6

1.1 0.9

1.1 -1.7

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -2

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.8

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -1.2

1.1 -0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 1.1

21.1 -0.2

21.1 1.2

21.1 0.1

21.2 0.2

21.2 0.4

21.2 0.5

21.2 0.5

21.2 0.4

21.3 0.5

21.4 0.7

21.4 0.8

21.5 1

21.5 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12038.4

12090.3

12149.1

12214.5

12270.7

12347.8

12430.8

12529.5

12629.9

12752.7

12864

12989.6

13117.8

13242.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.1 0

495.4 0.1

495.9 0.2

496.7 0.4

497.8 0.5

498.9 0.7

500.2 0.9

501.6 1

503.1 1.1

504.7 1.2

506.3 1.2

508.2 1.3

510.6 1.5

513.0 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

250.3 -1.7

250.9 -2.1

251.5 0.3

252.6 0.9

253.6 1.3

255 1.6

256.1 1.8

257.6 2

259.1 2.1

260.6 2.2

261.4 2.1

262.4 1.9

263.6 1.7

264.3 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9

9

8.9

8.8

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.1

8

7.9

845 709 137

1040 865 175

1257 1019 238

1515 1239 276

1874 1504 370

2199 1732 467

2518 1938 579

2909 2234 675

3239 2472 767

3552 2710 843

3815 2918 897

4054 3126 928

4277 3308 969

4425 3429 995

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

Gainesville

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.5 percent growth, the lowest of the MSAs studied. Per capita income level is expected to average 31.9. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 44.9. Population growth will average the second lowest of the studied areas at 0.7 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 8,493.85 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.4 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 6.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. Other Services, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will all experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.4, -0.3, and -2.3 respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 employees

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s

• Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 employees

UF partners with Coursera to offer free online classes

• Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

• The University of Florida joined a growing group of universities that offer free online courses to the public. Initially, UF will offer 6 free online courses through Coursera ranging from Economic Issues, Food and You to Sustainable Agriculture and Urban Land Management.

• Coursera launched five months ago and hosts more than 200 courses from 33 U.S. and international universities that reach more than 1.3 million students. • In addition to free online classes, UF is also developing and expanding tuition charging online courses. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 19, 2012

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Gainesville

Machen: Rather than allowing higher tuition, bill could provide more state funding • After Gov. Rick Scott vetoed a bill in the spring that would have allowed the University of Florida to seek unlimited tuition increases, the bill is being changed to provide more state funding, rather than higher tuition increases, to universities meeting certain standards. • Scott also vetoed a measure that would have allowed UF to opt out of the state health care program and establish its own health-care plan for its employees. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 17, 2012

Federal grant money used to renovate rural county homes • The Florida Small Cities Community Development Block Grant Housing Rehabilitation Program gave a $750,000 federal grant distributed by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity to fund a county housing project.

successful, the park could provide 3,000-4,000 jobs when fully developed and add millions to Hall County’s tax base. Source: The Gainesville Times, Semptember 19, 2012

Bright outlook for solar array atop The Continuum garage • The Continuum Apartments’ parking garage now hosts a solar array that produces enough power for about 30 homes and provides shade for cars on the top deck of the parking garage.

• Since going online May 24, the solar system has produced 103,420 kilowatt hours of power and earned nearly $30,000 from Gainesville Regional Utilities. GRU pays 29 cents per kilowatt hour generated for 20 years through the solar FIT program. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 18, 2012

• Contractors will rehabilitate seven homes to fix housing code deficiencies and replace four mobile homes with houses that comply with minimum housing code standards.

• Since 2000, the county has been awarded three of these $750,000 housing grants and has helped 55 households total.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 18, 2012

County hires engineer for industrial park • Hall County officials planning a new industrial park have secured an engineer, with Rochester and Associates to design the infrastructure in the park and for its first tenant, the Georgia Poultry Laboratory.

• The contracts will guide the design of work for the preparation of the site of the poultry lab, wetland delineation, and for roads in the rest of the park.

• At $571,000, the contract will be fronted by Hall County taxpayers, but repaid by profits as the parcels on the park property sell. If

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

2

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8500.0

10.0%

8000.0

8.0%

7500.0

6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

7000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment

Gainesville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0

36

(percent change year ago)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 5.2 5.2 4.0

8.8 -4.4 5.2 3.6

9.1 3.4 5.2 3.9

9.5 3.8 5.3 4.1

9.6 1.4 5.4 4.2

10.0 3.6 5.6 4.4

10.4 4.3 5.8 4.6

10.9 4.8 6.0 4.9

11.5 5.4 6.3 5.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 5.0

8.3 2.8

8.5 1.9

8.1 -4.5

8.2 1.4

8.3 1.3

8.3 -0.4

8.5 2.4

8.7 2.7

9.0 3.1

9.3 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.5 31.6

33.8 32.1

35.3 32.4

33.5 30.7

34.5 31.0

35.6 31.2

35.9 31.0

37.0 31.6

38.2 32.1

39.7 32.9

41.5 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 5.1

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.3

40.4 3.5

41.1 1.7

42.2 2.7

43.1 2.0

44.2 2.7

45.4 2.7

46.7 2.8

48.1 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.4 1.7

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

126.0 -0.7

124.2 -1.5

125.0 0.7

126.3 1.0

128.1 1.5

130.4 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 11.0

5.8 2.0

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16.0

4.4 -5.6

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -1.1

4.4 1.5

4.5 2.3

4.6 1.6

4.7 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

126.7 1.3

128.4 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.4 -0.4

121.6 -0.7

119.8 -1.5

120.6 0.6

121.7 1.0

123.5 1.5

125.7 1.8

6.5 5.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9.0

3.8 -10.4

3.6 -5.5

3.6 0.1

3.9 8.2

4.4 13.1

4.9 11.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 3.3

20.3 3.9

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7.0

18.0 -1.7

18.1 0.4

17.8 -1.7

17.9 0.9

18.0 0.4

18.2 1.0

18.5 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 -2.9

2.0 2.6

1.9 -7.1

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -2.7

1.4 -3.9

1.4 0.9

1.4 1.0

1.5 2.1

1.5 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 4.1

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6.0 -3.6

5.9 -1.1

5.8 -1.5

5.7 -1.6

5.8 1.4

5.9 1.5

5.9 0.5

6.0 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.7

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.7 2.8

10.4 -2.4

10.8 3.5

11.2 4.2

11.9 6.2

12.6 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 0.1

21.3 -0.6

21.9 2.9

22.0 0.2

22.2 0.9

22.3 0.5

21.8 -2.0

22.0 1.0

22.5 2.0

22.9 1.7

23.4 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 -2.0

14.0 4.1

14.5 3.6

13.4 -7.2

13.0 -3.0

12.9 -1.1

12.9 0.3

13.1 1.6

13.1 -0.4

13.0 -0.8

12.9 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -2.6

4.4 -0.1

4.3 -2.8

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.8

4.3 0.1

4.3 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4.0 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 11.0

4.5 -5.8

4.3 -2.4

4.3 -2.1

4.1 -2.8

4.1 -2.0

4.0 -1.2

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.5 -0.7

37.3 -0.5

37.3 -0.1

37.4 0.4

37.7 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8453.0

8761.0

8714.5

8384.4

8445.7

8372.1

8312.0

8375.7

8527.7

8760.0

9024.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

256.0 2.2

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.6

264.8 0.5

266.5 0.7

267.7 0.4

269.2 0.6

271.4 0.8

273.8 0.9

276.6 1.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.0 1.6

137.2 3.9

139.2 1.5

137.4 -1.3

138.2 0.6

138.3 0.0

137.6 -0.5

138.8 0.9

140.6 1.3

142.1 1.0

143.1 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2.6

2.9

4.3

7.1

8.0

7.8

6.9

6.4

6.1

5.7

5.3

1919.5 1160.8 759.0

1451.3 766.7 685.0

1058.2 516.6 542.0

511.8 363.5 148.0

512.6 406.4 106.0

450.4 299.5 151.0

580.2 381.5 199.0

801.8 485.9 316.0

1072.8 658.8 414.0

1405.3 881.0 524.0

1569.7 978.1 592.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

Gainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 1.1 5.4 4.3

9.7 3.1 5.4 4.3

9.8 3.3 5.5 4.3

9.9 3.7 5.5 4.4

10 3.8 5.6 4.4

10.1 3.7 5.6 4.5

10.2 4.2 5.7 4.5

10.3 4.2 5.7 4.6

10.4 4.2 5.8 4.6

10.5 4.4 5.8 4.7

10.7 4.4 5.9 4.8

10.8 4.7 6 4.8

10.9 4.9 6.1 4.9

11.1 5.1 6.1 5

8.3 -0.4

8.4 1.7

8.4 2.2

8.5 2.5

8.5 2.6

8.6 2.3

8.7 2.7

8.7 2.6

8.7 2.6

8.8 2.8

8.9 2.7

9 3.1

9 3.3

9.1 3.4

36 31

36.3 31.2

36.6 31.4

36.8 31.5

37.1 31.6

37.4 31.7

37.8 32

38.1 32.1

38.4 32.2

38.7 32.3

39.1 32.6

39.5 32.8

39.9 33

40.3 33.1

43.2 1.3

43.5 2.6

43.8 2.8

44.1 2.7

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.7

45 2.6

45.3 2.7

45.6 2.7

45.9 2.8

46.2 2.8

46.6 2.8

46.9 2.9

47.2 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

123.9 -1.6

124.2 -0.5

124.5 -0.2

124.8 0.8

125.2 1

125.5 1

125.8 1.1

126.1 1

126.3 1

126.8 1.1

127.3 1.2

127.8 1.4

128.4 1.6

129 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.6

4.4 -2.1

4.4 -0.5

4.4 1.8

4.4 2.2

4.5 2.4

4.5 2.8

4.5 2.3

4.5 2.2

4.6 2.1

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.7

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

119.6 -1.6

119.8 -0.4

120.1 -0.2

120.4 0.8

120.7 0.9

121 1

121.3 1

121.6 1

121.8 0.9

122.3 1

122.7 1.2

123.2 1.4

123.8 1.6

124.3 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 -5.4

3.5 -6

3.5 -3.5

3.5 -1.2

3.6 1.5

3.6 3.9

3.7 5.7

3.8 7.5

3.9 9

4 10.6

4.2 11.9

4.3 13

4.4 13.8

4.6 13.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 -2.4

17.8 -0.6

17.8 -0.2

17.9 1.2

17.9 1.3

18 1.2

18 0.8

18 0.4

18 0.2

18 0.3

18.1 0.5

18.1 0.8

18.2 1.2

18.3 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.1 2.2

2.4 13.2 2.2

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.2 2.4

2.5 13.3 2.4

2.5 13.3 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -1.3

1.4 -0.8

1.4 0.4

1.4 1.4

1.4 1.1

1.4 0.6

1.4 0.5

1.4 1

1.4 1.2

1.4 1.4

1.4 1.7

1.5 1.8

1.5 2.2

1.5 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -1.7

5.8 -1.4

5.8 -0.3

5.8 1.9

5.8 1.9

5.9 2

5.9 1.7

5.9 1.7

5.9 1.4

5.9 1

5.9 0.6

5.9 0.5

5.9 0.5

5.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 -2.5

10.5 0.4

10.6 1.1

10.7 4.4

10.8 4.3

10.9 4.4

11 3.8

11.2 3.8

11.3 4.3

11.5 4.8

11.6 5.6

11.8 6.2

12 6.6

12.2 6.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -2.8

21.8 -1.2

21.9 -0.7

22 1.2

22.1 1.8

22.2 1.6

22.4 2.2

22.4 2

22.5 1.8

22.6 2

22.7 1.5

22.8 1.7

22.9 1.8

23 1.6

13 1.2

13.1 4.2

13.1 3

13.1 1.8

13.1 1

13.2 0.6

13.2 0.3

13.1 -0.3

13.1 -0.6

13 -0.9

13 -0.9

13 -0.8

13 -0.7

13 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -3.1

4.3 -1.4

4.3 -1.1

4.3 0.4

4.3 1

4.3 1.1

4.3 1

4.3 1

4.3 0.9

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.2

4.3 0

4.3 -0.1

4.3 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 -1.2

4.3 -2.5

4.3 0

4.3 -2.4

4.2 -2.8

4.2 -3

4.2 -3

4.1 -2.9

4.1 -2.8

4.1 -2.7

4.1 -2.4

4.1 -2.1

4 -1.9

4 -1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.5 -0.8

37.4 -0.7

37.3 -0.9

37.3 -0.6

37.3 -0.5

37.3 -0.2

37.3 -0.1

37.3 -0.1

37.2 -0.2

37.3 -0.1

37.3 0.2

37.4 0.3

37.4 0.5

37.5 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8299.2

8317.7

8337.4

8363.7

8383.5

8418.2

8455.1

8500.9

8546.1

8608.5

8663.5

8728

8792.9

8855.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

267.8 0.4

268.1 0.4

268.5 0.4

269 0.6

269.5 0.6

270 0.7

270.5 0.8

271.1 0.8

271.7 0.8

272.3 0.9

272.9 0.9

273.5 0.9

274.1 0.9

274.8 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.3 -0.7

137.8 0.1

138 0

138.5 0.9

139 1.3

139.5 1.3

139.9 1.3

140.3 1.3

140.9 1.3

141.4 1.3

141.6 1.2

141.9 1.1

142.3 1

142.5 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.9

6.8

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.2

6

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

570 395 175

626 412 214

704 429 275

782 464 318

849 511 338

872 540 332

939 572 366

1009 625 384

1121 687 433

1222 751 472

1304 805 499

1378 863 515

1450 913 536

1489 942 547

38

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Jacksonville

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.8 percent. The per capita income level is the third highest of the 12 forecasted MSAs at 37.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be the third highest of the MSAs at a level of 50.4. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 56,018.12 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of 2012. This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 Naval Station Mayport – 12,670 City of Jacksonville – 8,820 Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) – 5,000 Mayo Clinic – 4,970 United Parcel Service – 4,100

Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records

Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. Unemployment will average 8.0 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an annual growth rate of 3.6 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with a 2.1 percent growth rate. The State and Local Government, Other Services, and the Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.3, -0.2 and -1.9 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Jacksonville’s foreign trade zone expands

• The U.S. Department of Commerce added the North Florida counties of Bradford, Putnam, and St. Johns to Jacksonville’s foreign trade zone. • Each zone is considered to be technically outside of U.S. Customs jurisdiction, allowing for the exemption or reduction of taxes on foreign goods imported, stored, or re-exported without formally entering the U.S. • These new counties join the existing ForeignTrade Zone No.64 area composed of Duval, Nassau, Clay, Baker and Columbia counties.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 17, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

Jacksonville

Acosta awarded $7.8 million Navy contract

• The U.S. Department of Defense awarded Acosta Inc. a $7.85 million contract to provide resale items for the Navy Exchange Service Command Ship Store Program.

• Acosta is a Jacksonville based sales and marketing agency that specializes in foodrelated businesses. The U.S. navy will utilize the resale items in their ship stores. • The contract also lists the potential to add on four one-year extensions for total value of $39.25 million. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 20, 2012

IberiaBank to exit Jacksonville retail market, close 3 branches • IberiaBank Corp. is closing all three Jacksonville branches just three years after entering the local retail banking market by acquiring failed banks.

• Lafayette, Louisiana based IberiaBank has been aggressively expanding since the recession. The bank currently operates 42 branches in Florida, mostly located in the South and Southwest regions. • The company claims layoffs will be minimal, with as few as five per branch, and that they will continue to focus on other Florida markets with more branches and greater market shares. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 20, 2012

Jacksonville slashes about 150 jobs from city workforce

• Approximately 150 City of Jacksonville employees will be laid off, and another 150 demoted in preparation of the Oct. 1 fiscal year start.

• The layoffs will save the city $4 million a year in salaries. A majority of those being laid off were not part of a high-salary group, the average salary being just $31,000.

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

• Public Works was the hardest hit department, losing 46 employees. The Public library followed, with a loss of 36 workers and another 70 being demoted. Source: Florida Times-Union, September 5, 2012

Two Jacksonville TV stations to be sold

• Cox Media Group is purchasing WAWS and WETV television stations in Jacksonville from Newport Television LLC.

• The stations come from Newport as part of a $1 billion national deal involving 22 TV stations and three separate buyers. The other buyers are Nexstar Broadcasting and Sinclair Broadcasting. • Cox, an Atlanta based company, currently operates five Jacksonville radio stations: WAPE (95.1-FM), WFYV (104.5-FM), WJGL (96.9FM), WXXJ (102.9-FM), and WOKV (690AM and 106.5 FM). Source: Florida Times-Union, July 20, 2012

Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

60000.0

12.0% 55000.0

10.0% 8.0%

50000.0

6.0% 45000.0

4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Jacksonville Real Personal Income (percent change year ago)

(Thousands)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

Jacksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.9 2.9 28.8 25.2

51.3 -5.0 27.4 23.9

53.3 4.1 27.9 25.4

55.9 4.8 28.9 27.0

57.6 3.0 29.6 27.9

60.4 5.0 31.0 29.4

63.8 5.6 32.5 31.3

67.5 5.8 34.2 33.3

71.6 6.1 36.0 35.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.9 7.3

49.7 1.5

49.5 -0.4

47.0 -5.0

48.0 2.1

49.1 2.3

49.7 1.2

51.6 3.8

53.6 3.9

55.8 4.1

58.2 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.1 38.1

40.1 38.0

40.7 37.4

38.3 35.2

39.5 35.6

41.0 36.1

41.9 36.1

43.4 37.1

45.2 38.0

47.0 38.9

49.0 39.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.0 5.5

44.3 3.0

44.8 1.1

45.2 0.8

46.4 2.8

47.5 2.4

48.5 2.0

49.7 2.6

51.0 2.6

52.4 2.8

53.8 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

624.8 3.5

633.9 1.5

621.7 -1.9

586.5 -5.7

582.9 -0.6

590.1 1.2

593.4 0.6

605.4 2.0

619.3 2.3

635.1 2.5

650.9 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -1.9

28.7 -10.1

26.9 -6.2

26.8 -0.5

26.7 -0.4

27.0 1.2

27.6 2.1

28.0 1.5

28.3 1.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

591.5 3.7

601.4 1.7

589.8 -1.9

557.7 -5.4

556.0 -0.3

563.3 1.3

566.7 0.6

578.4 2.1

591.8 2.3

607.1 2.6

622.7 2.6

50.0 10.3

49.2 -1.6

43.0 -12.6

32.8 -23.8

28.5 -13.0

26.6 -6.8

24.5 -7.8

24.4 -0.4

26.7 9.2

30.3 13.4

33.3 9.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.4 -2.1

126.9 -7.0

124.3 -2.0

124.8 0.4

127.2 1.9

130.2 2.4

132.8 2.0

135.8 2.3

139.2 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.5 32.3

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30.0

25.2 69.5 30.1

25.3 71.9 30.0

26.0 73.1 31.1

26.7 73.7 32.3

27.6 74.3 33.7

28.4 75.5 34.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -6.0

9.5 -0.5

9.6 1.4

9.8 1.4

10.0 2.0

10.1 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.8 1.0

60.2 0.5

59.8 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.9 0.3

57.9 3.6

58.5 0.9

60.0 2.5

61.1 1.9

61.4 0.6

61.7 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.5 8.3

94.4 -1.2

88.1 -6.6

83.2 -5.5

86.1 3.5

91.7 6.5

94.9 3.4

99.9 5.3

104.7 4.7

110.3 5.4

115.3 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.4

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.4 1.2

89.8 1.5

91.9 2.4

94.3 2.6

97.5 3.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

67.3 2.1

64.7 -3.9

64.4 -0.5

65.2 1.3

65.3 0.1

66.5 1.8

67.0 0.7

67.0 0.0

67.0 0.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 3.1

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24.0 -9.7

23.8 -0.7

23.4 -2.0

22.7 -2.7

22.8 0.5

23.1 0.9

23.1 0.2

23.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 -2.6

17.0 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18.0 2.8

17.3 -3.9

17.3 -0.3

16.8 -2.6

16.4 -2.7

16.1 -1.9

15.9 -1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.1 0.0

59.2 3.7

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.2

59.0 0.3

59.3 0.5

58.3 -1.7

58.3 0.0

58.5 0.3

58.9 0.7

59.4 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

55037.0

55690.8

54357.2

52101.3

52836.3

53097.4

53733.7

54929.9

56625.6

58783.3

61041.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1284.8 2.5

1308.2 1.8

1324.0 1.2

1336.9 1.0

1349.4 0.9

1361.9 0.9

1375.3 1.0

1391.6 1.2

1411.2 1.4

1434.9 1.7

1461.0 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

650.3 3.2

677.2 4.1

688.2 1.6

679.9 -1.2

685.1 0.8

692.5 1.1

693.3 0.1

698.5 0.8

706.7 1.2

714.5 1.1

723.6 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

3.2

3.8

5.8

9.8

10.9

10.1

8.4

8.1

8.0

7.4

6.8

16719.2 12297.6 4422.0

10458.7 7516.1 2943.0

7056.1 5172.3 1884.0

4935.2 3399.0 1536.0

3713.5 3562.3 151.0

3546.3 3175.7 371.0

5773.7 4513.2 1261.0

7243.2 4892.2 2351.0

9420.5 6345.7 3075.0

12284.0 8600.8 3683.0

13978.2 9727.3 4251.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Jacksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

57.8 3 29.8 28.1

58.6 4.3 30.1 28.5

59.3 4.7 30.5 28.8

60.1 5.1 30.8 29.2

60.8 5.1 31.2 29.6

61.5 5 31.6 30

62.5 5.5 31.9 30.6

63.3 5.4 32.3 31

64.2 5.6 32.7 31.5

65.1 5.8 33.1 32

66.1 5.7 33.6 32.5

67 5.8 34 33

68 5.9 34.4 33.5

68.9 5.8 34.9 34

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.8 1.5

50.4 2.8

50.9 3.6

51.4 3.9

51.8 4

52.3 3.7

52.9 4

53.3 3.8

53.9 3.9

54.4 4.1

55 4

55.6 4.2

56.1 4.2

56.6 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42 36.2

42.4 36.5

42.8 36.7

43.3 37

43.6 37.2

44 37.4

44.6 37.7

45 37.9

45.4 38.1

45.9 38.3

46.4 38.6

46.8 38.8

47.3 39

47.7 39.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.6 1.3

48.9 2.5

49.3 2.7

49.6 2.7

49.9 2.6

50.2 2.6

50.5 2.5

50.9 2.5

51.2 2.6

51.5 2.6

51.9 2.7

52.3 2.8

52.6 2.8

52.9 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

593.6 0.9

596.7 0.7

600.2 1.3

603.6 2.2

607.2 2.3

610.7 2.3

613.9 2.3

617.3 2.3

620.9 2.3

625.2 2.4

629.1 2.5

632.9 2.5

637 2.6

641.3 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 0

26.7 0.3

26.8 0

26.9 1.1

27.1 1.6

27.2 1.9

27.4 2.4

27.5 2

27.6 1.9

27.8 1.9

27.9 1.7

27.9 1.7

28 1.5

28.1 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

566.9 0.9

570 0.7

573.5 1.4

576.7 2.2

580.1 2.3

583.5 2.4

586.5 2.3

589.8 2.3

593.2 2.3

597.4 2.4

601.2 2.5

605 2.6

609 2.7

613.1 2.6

23.9 -8.6

23.8 -9.3

24 -8

24.2 -0.3

24.5 2.5

25 4.9

25.6 6.8

26.3 8.6

27 10

27.9 11.5

28.9 12.8

29.8 13.5

30.7 13.9

31.6 13.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.3 2.1

128.1 1.7

129.1 1.6

129.8 2.6

130.7 2.7

131.4 2.6

131.8 2.1

132.4 2

133.1 1.8

134 2

134.6 2.2

135.3 2.2

136.2 2.3

137.2 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.4 71.9 30

25.5 72.2 30.3

25.8 72.6 30.6

25.9 72.9 31

26.1 73.3 31.3

26.3 73.5 31.6

26.4 73.5 31.9

26.6 73.6 32.2

26.8 73.7 32.5

27 73.9 32.8

27.2 73.9 33.2

27.4 74 33.5

27.7 74.3 33.8

27.9 74.8 34.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 0.5

9.5 -0.9

9.6 0.3

9.7 2.1

9.7 1.8

9.6 1.2

9.7 0.6

9.8 1.3

9.8 1.8

9.8 2.1

9.9 2.3

10 1.9

10 1.8

10 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

58.7 1.8

59.1 1.8

59.5 2.8

59.8 2.5

60.1 2.4

60.5 2.4

60.8 2.2

61 2.1

61.2 1.8

61.3 1.4

61.4 1

61.4 0.7

61.4 0.4

61.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.7 4.4

96.9 3.4

98.1 6.2

99.4 5.2

100.5 5

101.6 4.9

102.6 4.6

103.8 4.5

105.3 4.7

106.9 5.2

108.3 5.6

109.6 5.5

111 5.4

112.2 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

88.3 0.9

88.9 1.4

89.1 1

89.5 1.3

90 1.8

90.5 1.8

91.2 2.3

91.7 2.4

92 2.3

92.6 2.4

93.2 2.2

93.9 2.4

94.7 2.8

95.4 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

65.2 0.5

65.7 0.3

66.1 0.6

66.4 2.7

66.6 2.1

66.9 1.8

67 1.5

67 0.9

67 0.5

67 0.1

67 0

67 -0.1

66.9 0

67 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 -2.6

22.7 -2

22.8 -0.7

22.8 0.5

22.9 1.1

22.9 1.2

23 1

23.1 1.1

23.1 1

23.1 0.6

23.1 0.4

23.1 0.2

23.1 0.1

23.1 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 0.5

17.1 -0.4

17 -2.4

16.9 -2.4

16.8 -2.7

16.6 -2.8

16.5 -2.8

16.4 -2.8

16.3 -2.7

16.2 -2.6

16.1 -2.4

16.1 -2.1

16 -1.8

16 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.3 -1.5

58.3 -1.2

58.3 -0.3

58.3 -0.1

58.3 0

58.4 0.2

58.4 0.2

58.4 0.2

58.5 0.3

58.6 0.4

58.7 0.5

58.8 0.7

59 0.8

59.1 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

53800.8

54095.2

54423.4

54752

55067.4

55476.7

55858.7

56356.5

56846.8

57440.4

57955.9

58506.8

59061.9

59608.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1377 1

1380.9 1

1384.9 1.1

1389.2 1.1

1393.7 1.2

1398.3 1.3

1403.2 1.3

1408.4 1.4

1413.8 1.4

1419.5 1.5

1425.5 1.6

1431.7 1.7

1438 1.7

1444.4 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

692.9 0.2

694.3 -0.1

695.6 0.2

697.4 0.8

699.1 0.9

701.8 1.1

703.8 1.2

705.7 1.2

707.7 1.2

709.5 1.1

711 1

713.3 1.1

715.9 1.2

717.7 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.1

8

7.9

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.4

7.2

6148 4786 1363

6408 4719 1690

6655 4632 2024

7011 4727 2283

7471 4993 2478

7835 5217 2618

8342 5508 2834

8997 6023 2974

9762 6607 3155

10580 7244 3336

11334 7826 3509

12019 8411 3607

12678 8913 3764

13105 9253 3853

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

Lakeland

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 4.6 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.9, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 42.4, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.3 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16,313.87 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of 2012. This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 9.1 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.8 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 3.9 percent a year. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.2 and -3.7 percent respectively.

• GEICO – 2,005

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s

Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000

• Rooms To Go – 900

• Watkins Motor Lines – 848 • Summit Consulting – 654

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Sykes Enterprises reduces number of jobs it expects to bring to Lakeland

• Sykes Enterprises has lowered the number of higher-paying positions at its new 92,000-square-foot Lakeland call center from 127 to 40. • The new jobs will pay an average wage of $35,243, 115% of the city’s average annual wage, qualifying Sykes for tax incentives.

• Due to the adjusted number of jobs, city commissioners will vote to reduce the incentives from $76,000 over six years to $24,000 over six years. The company still plans to bring 600 jobs to the call center that will begin operations later this year. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, July 12, 2012

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Lakeland

Legoland expanding with rides, shops, more

• Winter Haven based Legoland filed documents with the Southwest Florida Water Management District to approve a 1.6-acre expansion. • Pirate Shores, an addition to the existing Pirate Cove ski attraction, will feature rides, games, and retail shopping. The initial documents suggest it will be similar to the Legoland California Pirate Shores.

• The former site of Cypress Gardens, Legoland Florida opened in October 2011. The waterpark opened in late May. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, August 20, 2012

Number of ‘Underwater’ Homes in Polk on decline • The percentage of local residential properties with mortgages in negative equity dropped from 51.7% at the end of last year to 50.8%, according to the latest report by Corelogic.

• A home is considered “underwater” or in negative equity when the amount the owners owe on mortgage is worth more than the property. The 50.8% negative equity is the lowest for Polk since 2009 Q3 (47.4%).

USF Health announces new alliance with Lakeland Regional

• USF has named Lakeland Regional the first member-hospital in the creation of its new health care system. The partnership is expected to add 200 medical residencies to the existing 712, making USF the largest doctor training program in the state. • The University expects to launch the USF Health System, including its existing 450-physician multi-specialty practice, in March 2013.

• USF will not buy the hospital, but refers to it as an “operational merger” in which both the school and the hospital will retain their board of directors. Tampa General Hospital, an independent institution, will remain USF’s main teaching hospital. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 20, 2012

• The negative equity rate for the U.S. is 23.7%, down from 25.2% at the end of 2011. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, July 30, 2012

Winter Haven Hospital, BayCare Health Systems, exploring merger • Winter Haven Hospital has signed a letter of intent to become part of the BayCenter Health System by early to mid-2013. The organizations will spend the next four months further exploring financing and other obstacles to forming the union. • BayCare Health Systems is a collaboration of not-for-profit hospitals in the Tampa Bay area including 10 acute-care hospitals and one longterm care hospital.

• The announcement comes one year after Winter Haven Hospital announced they were looking to partner with other not-for-profit hospitals. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, August 29, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Lakeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

1

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 17000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

15000.0

16000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0

46

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

170.0

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

14.0% 12.0%

2.0%

2

(percent change year ago)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Lakeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.4 4.0 8.1 11.3

18.5 -4.5 7.7 10.8

19.2 3.5 7.7 11.4

20.0 4.3 7.9 12.1

20.6 3.2 8.0 12.6

21.6 4.6 8.4 13.2

22.7 5.1 8.7 14.0

24.0 5.5 9.2 14.8

25.4 6.0 9.6 15.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 5.3

17.7 2.8

17.8 0.7

17.0 -4.5

17.3 1.5

17.6 1.8

17.8 1.4

18.4 3.4

19.1 3.5

19.8 3.9

20.6 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.0 30.2

31.8 30.2

32.6 29.9

30.9 28.4

31.7 28.6

32.8 28.8

33.5 28.9

34.5 29.5

35.9 30.2

37.3 30.9

39.0 31.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 4.8

37.3 2.0

37.8 1.3

38.1 0.8

39.0 2.5

40.1 2.7

40.9 1.9

41.9 2.4

42.9 2.4

44.0 2.5

45.1 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

215.6 2.1

215.7 0.0

212.3 -1.6

201.5 -5.1

196.8 -2.3

194.9 -1.0

195.6 0.4

199.0 1.7

202.6 1.8

207.4 2.4

212.5 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.1

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.2

14.1 -1.0

13.9 -1.4

14.1 1.3

14.4 2.1

14.6 1.7

14.8 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

197.8 2.6

198.5 0.4

196.0 -1.2

186.7 -4.8

182.6 -2.2

180.8 -1.0

181.7 0.5

184.9 1.8

188.2 1.8

192.8 2.4

197.7 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 4.0

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.3

11.0 -8.8

10.5 -4.5

10.1 -3.6

10.2 0.6

11.1 8.9

12.6 13.0

13.9 10.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

49.3 2.8

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -0.9

45.6 1.6

46.1 1.1

47.1 2.1

47.6 1.1

48.4 1.8

49.6 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.4 26.1 12.9

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12.0

8.7 24.2 12.0

9.0 24.3 12.2

9.2 24.4 12.5

9.4 24.9 12.8

9.5 24.9 13.2

9.7 24.9 13.6

10.1 25.3 14.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 3.0

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7.0

1.7 -4.3

1.7 0.6

1.7 1.2

1.7 1.3

1.8 2.3

1.8 2.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 3.1

15.5 1.8

15.9 2.2

15.5 -2.6

15.3 -1.3

15.0 -1.8

14.3 -4.3

14.7 2.3

14.9 1.5

15.0 0.5

15.1 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.3 -0.9

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24.0 -6.5

24.4 1.5

25.4 4.3

26.4 3.8

27.9 5.8

29.3 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.9 4.1

28.3 5.1

29.4 4.0

29.0 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.5 1.3

30.0 1.6

30.6 2.0

31.3 2.2

31.9 1.9

32.7 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 2.6

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.3 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.6 4.9

18.6 5.5

18.8 1.2

18.7 -0.3

18.6 -0.7

18.5 -0.5

9.5 5.5

9.0 -5.3

8.6 -4.0

8.3 -4.0

8.0 -2.8

7.6 -5.2

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.5

7.7 -0.1

7.7 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 0.0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -25.7

1.1 -7.8

1.1 -2.5

1.0 -2.7

1.0 -1.9

1.0 -1.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.1 -1.2

27.7 -1.3

27.7 -0.2

27.7 0.1

27.8 0.5

28.1 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16651.8

16763.4

16430.1

15823.7

15772.5

15537.1

15698.3

16023.9

16464.3

17069.1

17727.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

570.3 3.7

586.5 2.8

595.0 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.2 1.0

617.0 1.1

624.9 1.3

633.0 1.3

641.5 1.3

650.8 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

261.2 2.0

269.1 3.1

273.5 1.6

272.6 -0.3

276.1 1.3

274.6 -0.6

273.0 -0.6

272.7 -0.1

274.1 0.5

276.6 0.9

279.4 1.0

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

4.4

6.7

11.1

12.2

11.6

9.9

9.3

8.8

8.2

7.7

9463.1 8307.9 1155.0

4376.3 4029.2 347.0

3223.3 2364.0 859.0

1202.5 1189.7 13.0

1226.8 1168.7 58.0

1114.2 1060.0 54.0

1481.9 1447.7 34.0

2511.1 2279.3 232.0

4064.2 3529.2 535.0

5518.6 4733.4 785.0

6257.2 5255.7 1002.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

Lakeland

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.8 3.4 8.1 12.7

21 4.8 8.2 12.9

21.2 5 8.3 13

21.5 4.5 8.3 13.1

21.7 4.5 8.4 13.3

21.9 4.4 8.5 13.4

22.3 5 8.6 13.7

22.5 5 8.7 13.9

22.8 5.2 8.8 14.1

23.1 5.3 8.9 14.2

23.5 5.3 9 14.5

23.8 5.5 9.1 14.7

24.1 5.6 9.2 14.9

24.5 5.8 9.3 15.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 1.8

18.1 3.3

18.2 3.9

18.4 3.2

18.5 3.3

18.6 3

18.9 3.5

19 3.4

19.2 3.5

19.3 3.7

19.5 3.6

19.7 3.9

19.9 4

20.1 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.6 29

33.9 29.2

34.1 29.3

34.4 29.4

34.7 29.6

35 29.7

35.4 30

35.7 30.1

36 30.2

36.3 30.4

36.8 30.6

37.2 30.8

37.5 31

37.9 31.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41 1.2

41.2 2.4

41.5 2.5

41.7 2.4

42 2.4

42.2 2.4

42.5 2.4

42.7 2.4

43 2.4

43.2 2.5

43.5 2.5

43.8 2.5

44.1 2.6

44.4 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.2 0.8

196.8 1.2

197.6 2.1

198.5 1.4

199.4 1.7

200.4 1.8

201.2 1.8

202 1.7

202.9 1.7

204.1 1.9

205.3 2

206.6 2.3

208 2.5

209.4 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -1

13.9 -0.5

13.9 0.3

14 1.2

14.1 1.7

14.2 2

14.3 2.4

14.3 2

14.4 1.9

14.5 1.9

14.5 1.7

14.6 1.8

14.6 1.6

14.7 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

182.3 0.9

182.9 1.3

183.7 2.2

184.5 1.4

185.3 1.7

186.2 1.8

187 1.8

187.7 1.7

188.5 1.7

189.7 1.9

190.8 2

192.1 2.3

193.4 2.6

194.7 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10 -4.5

10 -4.3

10 -2.7

10.1 -0.9

10.2 1.9

10.4 4.4

10.7 6.4

10.9 8.1

11.2 9.7

11.6 11.3

12 12.3

12.4 13.1

12.8 13.6

13.1 13.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

46.4 1.3

46.6 2.4

46.8 3.3

47 1.7

47.2 1.7

47.3 1.6

47.4 1.4

47.5 1.1

47.6 0.9

47.8 1

48 1.3

48.2 1.6

48.5 2

48.9 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.3 24.6 12.5

9.3 24.6 12.6

9.3 24.8 12.7

9.3 24.8 12.8

9.4 24.9 12.9

9.4 25 12.9

9.4 24.9 13.1

9.5 24.9 13.1

9.5 24.9 13.2

9.6 24.9 13.3

9.6 24.9 13.4

9.7 24.9 13.5

9.8 25 13.6

9.9 25.1 13.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 2.5

1.7 -0.2

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.6

1.7 1.2

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.6

1.7 1.2

1.8 1.6

1.8 1.9

1.8 2.2

1.8 2.1

1.8 2.3

1.8 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 -3.2

14.5 -0.8

14.6 3.3

14.6 2

14.7 2

14.8 2

14.8 1.8

14.9 1.8

14.9 1.5

15 1.1

14.9 0.6

15 0.5

15 0.5

15 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 1.4

24.8 3.7

25.1 5.2

25.3 4.2

25.6 4

25.8 4

26 3.5

26.2 3.5

26.6 3.9

26.9 4.3

27.3 5.2

27.7 5.8

28.2 6.1

28.6 6.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 2

30.3 3.1

30.3 2.7

30.5 1.4

30.7 2

30.8 1.9

31.1 2.4

31.2 2.3

31.3 2.1

31.5 2.2

31.6 1.8

31.8 1.9

32 2

32.1 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 8.3

18.7 1.5

18.7 2.2

18.8 1.3

18.8 0.7

18.8 0.7

18.8 0.5

18.8 -0.2

18.7 -0.6

18.7 -0.9

18.7 -0.9

18.6 -0.7

18.6 -0.6

18.6 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 0.8

7.7 1.2

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.1

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.5

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.2

7.7 0

7.7 -0.1

7.7 -0.2

7.7 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -9

1.1 -5.7

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2.7

1.1 -2.9

1 -2.8

1 -2.7

1 -2.6

1 -2.5

1 -2.3

1 -2

1 -1.7

1 -1.4

27.7 -1

27.7 -0.8

27.7 -0.4

27.7 -0.3

27.7 -0.2

27.7 0.1

27.7 0.1

27.7 0.1

27.7 0

27.7 0.1

27.8 0.3

27.8 0.4

27.8 0.6

27.9 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15761.5

15827.3

15897.1

15981

16056

16161.3

16267.7

16391.3

16519.8

16678.3

16819.8

16985.5

17154.4

17316.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

618 1.1

619.9 1.2

621.9 1.3

624 1.3

625.9 1.3

627.8 1.3

629.8 1.3

631.9 1.3

634 1.3

636.1 1.3

638.2 1.3

640.3 1.3

642.5 1.3

644.8 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

273.5 -0.3

272.9 -0.6

272.3 0.1

272.5 -0.4

272.7 -0.3

273.2 0.1

273.5 0.4

273.9 0.5

274.3 0.6

274.7 0.5

275.4 0.7

276.1 0.8

277.1 1

277.7 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

9.9

9.7

9.5

9.4

9.2

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

8

1479 1431 48

1703 1637 66

1961 1835 126

2325 2137 188

2712 2450 262

3046 2695 351

3404 2974 430

3868 3376 492

4292 3715 577

4693 4052 642

5025 4333 691

5401 4639 762

5726 4901 824

5924 5060 863

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.5 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 38.5, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.4 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.6 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 245,678.82 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 8.4 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 5.5 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.3 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 2.1 percent. State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -2.3 percent.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Lynn University receives $6 million gift for business building

• An anonymous donor gave Lynn University $6 million to help fund an international business center. Lynn University did disclose that the anonymous donor is an alumnus. • The university will be spending $12 million to construct the 32,000 square-foot business building. • Lynn University hopes to complete the construction on the new business center by April 2014.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, August 20, 2012

Source: The Beacon Council

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

Dade Medical College plans to add 200 jobs, new campuses • Enrollment at the Dade Medical College has increased from 1,600 18 months ago to 2,000 students because of new campuses and a new online program.

• Southern Career College, a college the Dade Medical College recently bought, will open a campus in Homestead and in Miami. Dade Medical College offers undergraduate classes while Southern Career College will introduce graduate programs.

• The college hopes to add 200 employees by the end of 2013 which would add up to 600 employees in total for the school. This forprofit college is growing unlike others in the same area. Kaplan College closed a campus in Pembroke Pines.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 6, 2012

Downtown Miami’s west side could benefit from FECI plan

• Miami’s west side may be getting more attention in the upcoming years. Florida East Coast Industries is proposing to develop 9.4 acres in order to build a train station that would be similar to Grand Central.

• This project will hopefully draw in investments for the area. All Aboard Florida Division of the Florida East Coast Industries is hoping to build the train station, a rail line from Miami to Orlando, and possibly a hotel, retail, and residence areas.

• Another group that has their eye on the area is the Genting Group. Genting Group is planning a 30-acre gambling resort on South Miami Avenue. Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 6, 2012

$64 million reservoir pumps approved to deliver overdue water boost

• Palm Beach County is hoping to build $64 million pumps in order to help the water flow in the area.

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

• The L-8 reservoir was completed in 2008, but did not deliver the expected amount of water. The reservoir was supposed to store water in order to replenish the Loxahatchee River, add to community drinking water, and help during droughts.

• The reservoir did help during droughts in 2007 and 2011 but has not helped replenish the Loxahatchee River. Hopefully with the new pumping stations will help the reservoir. Source: Sun Sentinel, September 20, 2012

Jobs, character of Delray still at stake in budget talks

• The commissioners of Delray Beach are debating on what to cut in order to close the $4 million budget shortfall. The city’s budget is around $90 million so the $4 million is a small shortfall for the city. • One idea from the commissioners to help the shortfall is to implement an $84 per year fire assessment fee for all residents.

• The commission is hoping not to cut staff or to the holiday celebration Delray Beach holds. Source: Sun Sentinel, August 28, 2012

Broward Schools paids $800,000 for GPS, but rarely used it

• • The Broward County school system bought an $800,000 GPS system for school buses five years ago and barely used it. The system will no longer work after next summer either.

• • The plan was to use the GPS system in buses for learning disabled students and to create a system where parents could track where a bus was. The investment was the start to a multiyear plan that was halted after budget cuts to the School board.

• • The School Board members hope to reopen this plan, but the old GPS system would have to be thrown away and a completely new system be bought. Source: Sun Sentinel, September 19, 2012

M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

280000.0 260000.0

10.0%

240000.0

8.0% 6.0%

220000.0

4.0% 2.0%

200000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

180000.0

Miami Payroll Employment

Miami Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

2450.0 2400.0 2350.0 2300.0 2250.0 2200.0 2150.0 2100.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Miami Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

(percent change year ago)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7

238.3 4.1 114.3 124.0

242.9 1.9 113.0 129.9

226.0 -7.0 106.6 119.5

233.0 3.1 107.8 125.2

243.4 4.5 111.8 131.6

250.1 2.8 115.0 135.1

261.1 4.4 119.9 141.2

274.5 5.1 125.3 149.1

289.8 5.6 132.0 157.8

306.9 5.9 138.8 168.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

222.8 5.8

225.9 1.4

223.0 -1.3

207.4 -7.0

209.7 1.1

213.9 2.0

216.0 1.0

222.9 3.2

230.8 3.5

239.8 3.9

249.4 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.2 41.0

43.9 41.6

44.5 40.8

41.0 37.6

41.6 37.5

42.8 37.7

43.3 37.4

44.5 38.0

46.1 38.8

47.9 39.7

50.0 40.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.8 4.1

47.1 2.8

47.8 1.6

48.1 0.6

49.0 1.9

50.1 2.2

51.0 1.9

52.3 2.5

53.6 2.5

55.1 2.7

56.5 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2392.6 2.5

2414.7 0.9

2350.8 -2.6

2202.5 -6.3

2185.2 -0.8

2218.9 1.5

2239.7 0.9

2277.5 1.7

2322.8 2.0

2381.2 2.5

2441.5 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

101.5 -0.5

99.5 -2.0

93.4 -6.1

80.5 -13.8

76.0 -5.6

76.3 0.4

77.0 0.8

77.5 0.8

78.8 1.6

79.5 1.0

80.0 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2291.1 2.6

2315.2 1.1

2257.4 -2.5

2122.1 -6.0

2109.2 -0.6

2142.6 1.6

2162.8 0.9

2200.0 1.7

2244.1 2.0

2301.7 2.6

2361.4 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

164.4 11.5

161.2 -2.0

135.0 -16.2

102.6 -24.1

88.7 -13.5

83.8 -5.5

78.8 -6.0

80.0 1.6

88.8 11.0

102.6 15.5

114.8 11.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

543.4 2.5

549.6 1.1

540.6 -1.6

504.9 -6.6

504.2 -0.1

517.8 2.7

528.0 2.0

539.8 2.2

548.6 1.6

559.3 1.9

571.8 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

144.7 303.6 95.1

147.6 306.1 95.8

144.4 300.9 95.3

134.6 281.1 89.1

131.8 283.9 88.4

133.4 293.7 90.7

134.0 301.0 92.7

137.8 305.5 96.3

141.2 306.9 100.1

145.0 308.5 104.2

148.4 313.0 108.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

52.5 -4.9

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3.0

43.7 0.2

43.2 -1.0

44.1 2.0

44.8 1.5

45.6 1.9

46.0 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

182.4 3.0

180.3 -1.2

169.7 -5.9

154.1 -9.2

151.1 -1.9

152.0 0.6

152.9 0.6

154.2 0.9

155.2 0.6

155.5 0.2

156.2 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

368.0 3.3

370.2 0.6

353.3 -4.6

325.5 -7.9

329.1 1.1

341.1 3.7

348.5 2.2

363.4 4.3

380.0 4.5

403.6 6.2

424.9 5.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

308.0 2.1

318.9 3.5

326.2 2.3

330.6 1.3

335.4 1.5

345.6 3.0

355.3 2.8

359.5 1.2

367.1 2.1

375.5 2.3

387.0 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

251.7 1.7

257.9 2.5

257.0 -0.4

247.5 -3.7

251.5 1.6

258.6 2.8

259.4 0.3

264.7 2.0

266.0 0.5

265.5 -0.2

264.8 -0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.4 -7.4

93.0 -0.5

93.3 0.4

93.7 0.5

93.7 -0.1

94.1 0.5

94.1 0.0

94.3 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 -1.4

34.0 -0.3

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -7.0

33.6 -1.6

32.7 -2.7

31.7 -2.9

31.0 -2.1

30.7 -1.2

287.2 1.0

291.2 1.4

291.2 0.0

284.5 -2.3

276.0 -3.0

272.5 -1.3

269.5 -1.1

267.9 -0.6

267.7 -0.1

268.9 0.5

271.0 0.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

5427.2 0.3

5429.3 0.0

5462.0 0.6

5516.5 1.0

5594.0 1.4

5681.4 1.6

5772.4 1.6

5862.0 1.6

5952.8 1.5

6045.0 1.5

6135.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2746.8 2.7

2877.6 4.8

2869.1 -0.3

2789.1 -2.8

2823.0 1.2

2875.5 1.9

2920.9 1.6

2944.8 0.8

2963.1 0.6

2982.8 0.7

3008.8 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

244897.1 248254.8 241378.3 227883.9 230142.0 232117.3 235926.7 240884.8 248108.2 257795.7 267914.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6

3.9

6.0

10.3

11.2

10.5

8.9

8.6

8.3

7.7

7.0

32046.0 15831.4 16215.0

14682.6 7635.6 7047.0

7436.8 3534.8 3902.0

3466.4 2215.6 1251.0

5083.8 3267.6 1816.0

7437.6 4125.6 3312.0

14188.1 5647.4 8541.0

20415.4 8375.9 12039.0

25429.8 12794.1 12636.0

33160.2 18584.6 14576.0

38964.0 21926.9 17037.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

M i a mi – F o r t L a ud e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

251.3 2.7 115.4 135.8

254.2 4 116.6 137.6

256.7 4.2 118 138.7

259.8 4.5 119.3 140.5

262.6 4.5 120.5 142.1

265.4 4.4 121.8 143.6

269.5 5 123.2 146.3

272.6 4.9 124.6 148

276.1 5.2 126 150.1

279.8 5.4 127.7 152.1

284 5.4 129.4 154.6

287.8 5.6 131.1 156.7

291.7 5.7 132.8 158.9

295.6 5.6 134.6 161

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

216.5 1.2

218.7 2.5

220.3 3.1

222.2 3.2

223.8 3.4

225.4 3.1

227.9 3.4

229.6 3.3

231.7 3.5

233.9 3.8

236.4 3.7

238.7 4

241 4

243.1 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.4 37.4

43.8 37.7

44 37.8

44.4 38

44.7 38.1

45 38.2

45.5 38.5

45.9 38.6

46.3 38.8

46.7 39.1

47.2 39.3

47.7 39.6

48.2 39.8

48.6 40

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.2 1.2

51.5 2.4

51.9 2.6

52.2 2.5

52.5 2.5

52.8 2.5

53.1 2.5

53.5 2.5

53.8 2.5

54.1 2.6

54.6 2.7

54.9 2.7

55.3 2.8

55.6 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2240.3 0.9

2250.7 0.8

2261.6 1.2

2271.7 1.8

2283 1.9

2293.7 1.9

2304 1.9

2315.4 1.9

2328.1 2

2343.9 2.2

2358.4 2.4

2373.1 2.5

2388.6 2.6

2404.8 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

76.8 0.7

76.9 -0.5

76.9 -0.6

77.4 0.8

77.7 1.3

78.1 1.5

78.4 1.9

78.6 1.5

78.9 1.4

79.1 1.3

79.3 1.1

79.5 1.1

79.6 0.9

79.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2163.5 1

2173.8 0.8

2184.7 1.2

2194.3 1.8

2205.2 1.9

2215.6 1.9

2225.6 1.9

2236.8 1.9

2249.2 2

2264.7 2.2

2279.1 2.4

2293.7 2.5

2309 2.7

2325.1 2.7

77.6 -5.6

77.5 -5.2

78.1 -4.1

79.1 0.7

80.5 3.7

82.4 6.3

84.6 8.3

87.2 10.2

90 11.8

93.5 13.5

97.2 14.9

100.9 15.7

104.5 16.1

107.9 15.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

528.9 1.7

531.9 1.6

535.8 1.9

538.2 2.4

541.5 2.4

543.7 2.2

545.1 1.8

547.1 1.7

549.6 1.5

552.6 1.6

554.9 1.8

557.3 1.9

560.5 2

564.4 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

134.6 301.2 93

135.3 302.3 93.8

136.5 303.9 94.8

137.3 304.9 95.8

138.4 306.3 96.8

139.1 306.9 97.7

139.8 306.6 98.7

140.6 306.7 99.6

141.6 307 100.5

142.7 307.5 101.5

143.7 307.3 102.6

144.5 307.6 103.6

145.4 308.6 104.7

146.4 310.3 105.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 -0.4

43.4 -0.5

43.9 1.1

44.1 2.8

44.2 2.4

44.2 1.7

44.4 1.1

44.8 1.5

45 1.7

45 1.9

45.3 2.1

45.6 1.7

45.7 1.7

45.8 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

153.2 1.1

153.5 1.5

153.9 1.2

154 0.8

154.4 0.7

154.7 0.8

154.9 0.7

155.2 0.7

155.3 0.6

155.5 0.5

155.5 0.4

155.5 0.2

155.6 0.2

155.7 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

350.1 2.8

353.8 2.9

357.7 3.9

361.6 4.6

365.3 4.3

369.1 4.3

372 4

376.4 4.1

382.3 4.6

389.1 5.4

395.1 6.2

400.7 6.5

406.6 6.3

411.9 5.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

354.7 2.3

356.7 0.9

357.2 0.7

358.5 0.9

360.2 1.6

362 1.5

364.6 2.1

366.4 2.2

367.7 2.1

369.9 2.2

371.6 1.9

374.3 2.1

376.7 2.4

379.4 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

260 -0.4

261.8 1.5

263.2 2

264.5 2.6

265.1 2

265.9 1.6

266.4 1.2

266.2 0.7

265.8 0.3

265.8 0

265.9 -0.2

265.5 -0.3

265.2 -0.2

265.4 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

93.2 0.5

93.3 -0.8

93.6 -1.1

93.6 -0.1

93.7 0.5

93.8 0.5

94 0.4

94.1 0.6

94.3 0.6

94.1 0.3

94.1 0.1

94.1 -0.1

94.1 -0.2

94.1 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.5 -1.6

33.3 -2.8

33 -2.4

32.8 -2.5

32.5 -2.8

32.3 -3

32 -3

31.8 -2.9

31.6 -2.8

31.4 -2.7

31.2 -2.5

31.1 -2.2

31 -2

30.9 -1.7

269.2 -0.8

268.6 -1.5

268.3 -0.8

268 -0.6

267.8 -0.5

267.7 -0.3

267.6 -0.3

267.5 -0.2

267.6 -0.1

267.9 0.1

268.2 0.2

268.7 0.4

269.2 0.6

269.6 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

236198

237464

238815

240142

241454

243129

244739

246887

249069

251739

254065

256551

259043

261523

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5783.9 1.6

5806.5 1.6

5828.7 1.6

5850.9 1.6

5873.2 1.5

5895.3 1.5

5917.7 1.5

5940.9 1.5

5964.6 1.6

5988 1.6

6011.2 1.6

6033.7 1.6

6056.2 1.5

6078.9 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2925.4 1.7

2931.8 1.7

2936 0.9

2942.1 0.8

2947.6 0.8

2953.3 0.7

2957.3 0.7

2961 0.6

2965.3 0.6

2968.8 0.5

2973.2 0.5

2979.7 0.6

2986.2 0.7

2992 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

14655 5724 8931

16688 6486 10203

18519 7049 11470

19973 7811 12162

21269 8911 12358

21900 9733 12168

23053 10636 12417

24335 11963 12372

26109 13464 12646

28223 15114 13109

30385 16602 13783

32311 18044 14268

34276 19354 14922

35669 20339 15330

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Naples - Marco Island

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”. It is the largest county in Florida, geographically.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 5.7 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 55.2, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of 50.3. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.7 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 1.9 percent, the second highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,287.08 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 151,357 in April 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau). • An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,255 unemployed people (U.S. Census Bureau). Top Area Employers: • Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,100 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,100 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

Employment growth is expected to average 2.7 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 8.3 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 5.5 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with a growth rate of 5.0 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline this quarter at -5.0 percent.

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800 • Marriott – 700 • Naples Grande Beach Resort – 760 • Downing Frye Realty – 550 • Golf Bay Group Co. – 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s NCH Healthcare outsourcing 224 employees

• The NHC Healthcare System is outsourcing 224 employees who work in food service and housekeeping Oct. 1.

• NCH signed an agreement with Sodexo to take over the employment of the 114 food service workers and 110 housekeeping employees. • This outsource will allow the hospital system to focus on patient care as the healthcare industry faces declining reimbursement from the federal government for Medicare, increasing overhead costs, and other challenges. Source: The Naples Daily News, September 13, 2012

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Naples - Marco Island

Mercato work-space business opens Oct. 1

• Venture X, a members-only workspace, is expected to open Oct. 1 at the Mercato in North Naples.

• The idea behind the business arose after cofounder, David Diamond, visited technology hot-spots in Silicon Valley and New York. With no similar business in the area he filled the void with his co-founders through a West Coaststyle co-workspace. • As a modern co-working site, Venture X will facilitate collaboration, networking, classes, and community events to foster success. Source: The Naples News, September 19, 2012

Naples City Council notebook: Four Corners makeover to begin in April

• Council agreed to begin construction on the Four Corners crosswalk project in April, which will cross U.S. 41. • Once permits are approved by the Florida Department of Transportation work will begin on the $200,000 capital improvement project.

• Final costs will not be known until bids for the project have gone out. Source: The Naples News, August 22, 2012

It’s Your Business: Naples Publix on schedule for early December opening • The new 56,000-square-foot “hybrid” Publix at 1981 U.S. 41 N. is on track to open in early December.

About 30 people filled out applications in hopes of receiving one of the 1300 jobs that will be created if slot machines are permitted at the racetrack.

• In order for the racetrack to have the casino games, a county ordinance will need to be approved through a countywide referendum. State legislatures would also need to sign off.

• If it receives approval, a new entertainment center will be built. This would create at least 900 construction jobs, and after completion in 18 months the entertainment center will create 500 jobs ranging from bartending to security to technology. Source: The Naples News, September 13, 2012

Building block: Housing construction picking up locally, nationally

• Following a national trend, builders are pulling more permits and starting more new singlefamily homes in Lee and Collier counties than they have during the last four years.

• Prices have gone up and there has been strong sales absorption, indicating 2012 will be a much stronger year than 2011.

• Metrostudy, a real estate research and consulting firm, reports that in the most desirable neighborhoods in Lee and Collier counties the recovery has taken hold, while others are in “static.” Source: The Naples News, July 19, 2012

• The new store, No. 1,434, will feature natural and organic products, a soup bar, salad bar, and a Pacific wok. • This new Publix will replace the store No. 76, which work crews razed earlier this year. Source: The Naples News, September 18, 2012

Dog track shows off potential jobs if slot machines get approved • The job preview at the Naples-Fort Myers Greyhound Track received a modest turnout.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Naples - Marco Island Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

9000.0

140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

56

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment

90.0

1

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

(percent change year ago)

21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Naples - Marco Island

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.1 14.0 6.0 13.1

19.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

21.0 5.5 5.6 15.4

18.1 -14.1 5.1 13.0

18.6 3.2 5.2 13.5

19.6 5.2 5.4 14.2

20.4 4.2 5.6 14.8

21.6 5.5 5.9 15.6

23.0 6.4 6.3 16.7

24.5 6.7 6.7 17.8

26.4 7.6 7.1 19.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 11.0

18.9 1.5

19.3 2.1

16.6 -14.2

16.8 1.3

17.2 2.7

17.7 2.4

18.4 4.3

19.3 4.8

20.3 5.1

21.4 5.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

61.2 59.6

63.4 60.1

66.4 60.9

56.6 51.9

57.7 51.9

59.7 52.4

61.4 53.0

63.8 54.5

66.6 56.0

69.2 57.3

72.3 58.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 1.8

46.8 4.1

45.9 -1.9

45.5 -0.8

46.5 2.1

47.2 1.5

48.2 2.0

49.5 2.8

50.9 2.8

52.4 2.9

54.0 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

132.7 5.4

129.7 -2.3

121.1 -6.6

110.7 -8.7

110.6 -0.1

113.7 2.8

116.5 2.4

119.3 2.4

122.6 2.8

126.7 3.4

131.2 3.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 3.7

3.3 -1.3

3.0 -9.7

2.6 -11.4

2.4 -6.7

2.4 -0.8

2.5 3.2

2.5 1.7

2.6 2.6

2.7 2.0

2.7 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

129.4 5.4

126.4 -2.3

118.2 -6.5

108.0 -8.6

108.1 0.1

111.3 2.9

113.9 2.4

116.7 2.4

120.0 2.8

124.1 3.4

128.5 3.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 17.6

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -28.0

9.1 -12.9

8.7 -3.9

8.6 -1.5

8.5 -0.5

9.2 8.4

10.5 13.8

11.8 11.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 1.0

24.2 -1.2

23.0 -4.9

21.2 -7.9

21.4 1.1

22.4 4.8

23.0 2.4

23.6 2.7

24.1 2.2

24.8 2.7

25.6 3.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.6

3.1 16.7 1.5

3.1 16.8 1.5

3.2 17.7 1.5

3.3 18.1 1.6

3.3 18.6 1.6

3.4 19.0 1.7

3.6 19.3 1.7

3.7 20.0 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 3.2

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -9.0

1.5 -4.1

1.5 -3.3

1.5 0.4

1.5 1.7

1.6 2.0

1.6 3.1

1.7 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 5.7

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -10.0

6.5 -1.0

6.5 -0.5

6.6 2.3

6.8 3.0

7.0 2.9

7.2 1.6

7.3 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 4.1

12.6 -7.6

12.0 -4.5

11.5 -4.4

12.1 5.4

12.9 6.4

13.6 5.3

14.3 5.4

15.0 4.9

15.9 6.2

16.8 5.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 5.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.5

17.1 2.9

17.9 4.5

18.2 1.7

18.6 2.6

19.3 3.5

19.9 3.1

20.6 3.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 1.8

23.3 4.9

22.9 -2.0

20.9 -8.4

21.3 1.7

22.7 6.4

24.1 6.3

24.7 2.4

24.9 0.9

25.0 0.5

25.1 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 1.9

6.0 3.2

6.0 0.5

5.7 -5.4

5.7 0.0

5.5 -2.6

5.4 -2.1

5.5 1.8

5.6 2.2

5.7 1.5

5.8 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.0

0.8 14.8

0.7 -10.7

0.6 -12.3

0.6 -5.6

0.6 -1.4

0.6 -0.6

0.6 0.1

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -3.0

12.7 -1.6

12.5 -1.0

12.4 -0.8

12.5 0.9

12.7 1.4

13.0 1.8

13.2 2.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14156.5

13855.7

12923.0

11945.3

12139.7

12333.6

12689.8

12983.9

13432.3

14042.3

14718.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

312.6 1.6

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.1 0.7

323.4 1.3

328.7 1.7

333.0 1.3

338.0 1.5

344.9 2.0

353.9 2.6

364.7 3.0

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

150.7 4.6

152.4 1.1

148.4 -2.6

143.1 -3.6

144.7 1.1

148.5 2.6

151.4 1.9

153.7 1.5

155.2 1.0

158.1 1.9

162.2 2.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.0

4.2

6.8

10.9

11.6

10.3

8.6

8.4

8.4

7.9

7.4

4477.8 3066.4 1411.0

1984.9 1165.6 819.0

966.1 669.1 297.0

834.1 633.3 201.0

1204.6 803.8 401.0

1200.9 922.7 278.0

1679.8 1407.3 273.0

2635.6 1762.0 874.0

3706.4 2061.2 1645.0

4910.7 2773.9 2137.0

5601.5 3138.8 2463.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Naples - Marco Island

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.6 4.4 5.7 14.9

20.9 5.7 5.7 15.2

21.1 5.5 5.8 15.3

21.4 5.6 5.9 15.5

21.7 5.6 6 15.7

22 5.4 6.1 16

22.5 6.4 6.2 16.3

22.8 6.3 6.2 16.5

23.1 6.4 6.3 16.8

23.5 6.5 6.4 17

23.9 6.3 6.5 17.4

24.3 6.7 6.6 17.7

24.7 6.9 6.7 18

25.1 7.1 6.8 18.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 2.8

18 4.2

18.1 4.4

18.3 4.3

18.5 4.5

18.7 4.1

19 4.9

19.2 4.7

19.4 4.7

19.6 4.8

19.9 4.6

20.1 5

20.4 5.2

20.7 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

61.7 53.1

62.5 53.7

62.9 54

63.5 54.3

64.1 54.7

64.7 55

65.7 55.6

66.2 55.8

66.8 56.1

67.4 56.4

68.2 56.8

68.9 57.1

69.5 57.5

70.2 57.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 1.4

48.7 2.7

49 2.8

49.4 2.9

49.7 2.8

50.1 2.8

50.4 2.8

50.8 2.8

51.1 2.8

51.5 2.9

51.8 2.9

52.3 2.9

52.7 3

53 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

116.5 2.8

117.2 1.8

117.9 1.5

118.8 2.5

119.7 2.7

120.6 2.9

121.4 2.9

122.1 2.8

123 2.7

124 2.8

125 3

126.1 3.3

127.3 3.5

128.5 3.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 5.5

2.5 0.2

2.5 0.2

2.5 1.7

2.6 2.3

2.6 2.6

2.6 3.1

2.6 2.5

2.6 2.5

2.6 2.5

2.7 2.2

2.7 2.2

2.7 1.9

2.7 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

114 2.7

114.7 1.9

115.4 1.5

116.3 2.6

117.1 2.7

118 2.9

118.8 2.9

119.5 2.8

120.3 2.7

121.3 2.8

122.3 3

123.5 3.3

124.7 3.6

125.8 3.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 -0.1

8.4 -0.9

8.4 -4.2

8.5 -1.1

8.5 0.2

8.7 3.1

8.9 5.3

9.1 7.5

9.3 9.4

9.6 11.1

10 12.3

10.3 13.6

10.7 14.6

11.1 14.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23 2.2

23.2 2.1

23.3 2.3

23.5 2.7

23.7 2.9

23.8 2.9

23.9 2.6

24 2.2

24.1 1.9

24.3 2

24.5 2.2

24.6 2.5

24.8 2.9

25.1 3.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 18.2 1.5

3.3 18.3 1.6

3.3 18.4 1.6

3.3 18.6 1.6

3.4 18.7 1.6

3.4 18.8 1.6

3.4 18.9 1.6

3.4 18.9 1.6

3.4 19 1.7

3.5 19.1 1.7

3.5 19.2 1.7

3.5 19.3 1.7

3.6 19.4 1.7

3.6 19.6 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 1

1.5 0.1

1.5 1.1

1.5 2.3

1.5 2

1.5 1.5

1.5 1.6

1.6 2

1.6 2.2

1.6 2.3

1.6 2.7

1.6 2.8

1.6 3.3

1.6 3.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 2.6

6.7 2.1

6.7 1.5

6.8 3.5

6.9 3.5

6.9 3.5

7 3.3

7 3.2

7.1 2.9

7.1 2.4

7.1 1.9

7.1 1.6

7.2 1.5

7.2 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 5.1

13.8 4.6

14 4.4

14.2 5.8

14.4 5.7

14.6 5.7

14.7 5.1

14.9 4.7

15.1 4.7

15.3 4.8

15.5 5.3

15.8 6.1

16.1 6.6

16.3 6.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 1.4

18.3 0.9

18.4 1.4

18.6 2.4

18.7 3.2

18.9 3.2

19.1 3.7

19.2 3.5

19.3 3.3

19.5 3.4

19.6 3

19.8 3.1

20 3.2

20.1 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 6.9

24.4 4.3

24.5 2.7

24.6 3

24.7 2.2

24.8 1.8

24.9 1.6

24.9 1

24.9 0.6

24.9 0.4

25 0.4

25 0.4

25 0.6

25.1 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 -2.1

5.4 -0.5

5.5 0.8

5.5 1.7

5.5 2.4

5.5 2.4

5.6 2.3

5.6 2.4

5.6 2.3

5.6 1.9

5.7 1.7

5.7 1.5

5.7 1.4

5.7 1.6

0.6 -17.2

0.6 -18.1

0.6 -16.3

0.6 -1.1

0.6 -1.5

0.6 -1.7

0.6 -1.6

0.6 -1.5

0.6 -1.4

0.6 -1.3

0.6 -1.1

0.6 -0.8

0.6 -0.5

0.6 -0.2

12.4 0.7

12.4 -0.4

12.5 0.2

12.5 0.8

12.6 1.1

12.6 1.4

12.6 1.4

12.7 1.4

12.7 1.3

12.8 1.4

12.9 1.7

12.9 1.8

13 2

13 2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12708.3

12774.4

12847.6

12938.7

13021.1

13128.3

13235.6

13360.4

13488.7

13644.6

13787.5

13956

14129.4

14296.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

333.5 1.2

334.6 1.2

335.8 1.3

337.2 1.4

338.7 1.6

340.2 1.7

341.9 1.8

343.8 1.9

345.8 2.1

348 2.3

350.2 2.4

352.5 2.5

355.2 2.7

357.9 2.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

151.9 2.7

152.5 1.4

152.9 1.6

153.4 1.8

153.9 1.3

154.4 1.3

154.8 1.2

155 1.1

155.3 0.9

155.5 0.7

156.4 1

157.5 1.6

158.7 2.2

159.6 2.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

1826 1577 249

1965 1600 364

2246 1652 594

2538 1727 811

2806 1818 988

2952 1850 1102

3213 1865 1348

3488 1921 1567

3877 2127 1750

4248 2333 1915

4547 2516 2031

4805 2713 2092

5068 2883 2185

5223 2984 2239

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Oc a l a

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at 30.1. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at 39.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, the third highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,654.12 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 131,340 in December of 2006 (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).

• An unemployment rate of 9.7% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 118,600 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,725

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 9.9 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors are expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. These are followed by the Information sector at 2.0 percent growth. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience negative growth, with an average annual rate of -1.5 percent.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Small businesses try various ways to survive, thrive

• Some businesses are downsizing to cope with the particularly poor unemployment statistics in Ocala MSA. • Some local consumers have pledged to only shop at local small businesses.

• This could be signaling a trend in consumer behavior in the Ocala MSA

• Other retailers are moving to online-based sales, which proves to require much less overhead. Source: Ocala.com, September 15, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oc a l a

Dunnellon’s growth brings questions from some

• Dunnellon’s City Council on Aug. 27 annexed 500 acres along County Road 484 and nestled against the Dunnellon-Marion County Airport, nearly six miles east of town.

• Dunnellon’s most recent addition came at the request of the landowner, Boger Farms LLC.

• Dunnellon spokeswoman Harriet Daniels said the Bogers have not requested any land-use change or revealed any plan to develop it yet. • However, environmentalists worry it is only a matter of time until the land is sold for development, and Dunnellon residents worry that the local budget cannot be stretched any thinner. Source: Ocala.com, September 23, 2012

Ocala OKs budgets, county fire dispatch plan

• Local government unanimously approved a consolidation program with Marion County for fire dispatchers.

• The millage rate for 2012-13 is 6.1502 per $1,000 of taxable value. That is a 3.7 percent increase over the current 5.9332.

• The new millage is the rolled-back rate, which is the rate at which the city will collect the same amount of tax revenue in 2013 as in 2012.

Source: Ocala.com, September 13, 2012

Officials believe Ocala’s central location ideal for inland port

• The city of Ocala has negotiated a memorandum of understanding with the Jacksonville Port Authority to explore a partnership that could include Ocala in the container port supply chain.

• City Manager Matthew Brower said the city has budgeted $150,000 in hopes of leveraging state money to get the work done.

• When the Panama Canal expansion is completed – now expected to be in 2015 – super-sized container ships from Asia will be able to pass through the canal. That could possibly bring more freight traffic to Florida ports. 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

• Companies like Wal-Mart and Sysco seriously looked at Ocala as a distribution area, but the companies went north when there were no prepared sites in Ocala. Source: Ocala.com, October 23

City Council to consider doubling size of Enterprise Zone

• The Ocala City Council will be asked in December to consider doubling the size of the Enterprise Zone from five to 10 square miles.

• Businesses in the zone are eligible for incentives that include sales tax credits for creating jobs, corporate income tax credits, sales tax refunds for business equipment and building materials, and a partial sales tax reduction for electric energy.

• The new boundaries would include the entire Ocala/Marion County Commerce Park property, commonly referred to as the Magna property, as well as more residential areas, which means employers could get a benefit from hiring residents inside the zone. Source: Ocala.com, October 22

Bank of America plans to hire 2 bankers in area to reach out to small businesses

• Bank of America is hiring two bankers in Ocala who will reach out to small local businesses. Several bankers already stationed in Ocala said the competition will be healthy for all. • Since October 2010, Bank of America has hired more than 130 small-business bankers in Florida.

• Since beginning this program, Bank of America has seen a roughly 39 percent increase in loan volume. • Local banks are welcoming the arrival and the competition it poses as a sign of good economic times to come. Source: Ocala.com, October 23

Oc a l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

7500.0

6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Ocala Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

80.0

0.8

7000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

(percent change year ago)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oc a l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.5 3.6 3.7 6.8

10.1 -4.1 3.4 6.7

10.4 2.7 3.3 7.0

10.8 4.4 3.4 7.4

11.2 3.5 3.5 7.7

11.8 5.1 3.6 8.1

12.4 5.8 3.8 8.6

13.2 6.2 4.0 9.2

14.1 6.9 4.3 9.8

9.4 8.7

9.6 2.8

9.7 0.3

9.3 -4.2

9.3 0.7

9.5 1.9

9.7 1.7

10.0 3.9

10.5 4.2

10.9 4.6

11.5 5.0

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

30.3 29.5

31.2 29.5

31.9 29.3

30.5 28.0

31.2 28.1

32.5 28.6

33.5 28.9

34.8 29.8

36.2 30.4

37.5 31.1

39.1 31.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.5 7.3

34.9 1.2

35.9 2.8

36.1 0.6

36.5 1.0

37.2 1.9

37.9 2.0

39.0 2.8

40.0 2.7

41.2 2.9

42.4 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

106.2 4.6

106.8 0.5

102.0 -4.5

93.1 -8.7

90.9 -2.4

90.7 -0.3

90.8 0.1

92.6 2.0

94.8 2.4

97.6 2.9

100.6 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 -0.6

9.6 -3.1

8.3 -13.8

6.7 -19.4

6.4 -3.7

6.5 1.2

6.7 3.0

6.7 0.9

6.9 1.7

6.9 1.1

7.0 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

96.3 5.1

97.2 0.9

93.7 -3.6

86.5 -7.8

84.5 -2.3

84.2 -0.4

84.1 -0.1

85.9 2.1

88.0 2.5

90.7 3.1

93.6 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 17.1

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.9

7.3 -24.4

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.3 -6.3

5.4 1.3

5.9 10.3

6.8 14.5

7.6 11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.4

20.5 -9.8

20.1 -1.9

20.4 1.4

20.1 -1.3

20.5 2.1

20.9 1.5

21.3 2.1

22.0 3.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.8 2.9

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.4

3.3 14.5 2.5

3.2 14.3 2.7

3.2 14.6 2.7

3.3 14.8 2.8

3.4 15.0 2.9

3.5 15.3 3.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 -1.9

2.0 -7.2

1.9 -2.9

1.7 -12.0

1.5 -9.4

1.6 3.9

1.6 2.5

1.6 1.5

1.7 1.5

1.7 2.5

1.7 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 6.1

6.0 3.6

5.9 -0.5

5.1 -13.4

4.2 -19.1

4.2 1.3

4.2 -0.3

4.3 2.4

4.4 2.3

4.4 1.2

4.5 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.3

8.2 -4.5

7.7 -5.1

7.4 -4.7

7.3 -0.4

7.5 2.0

7.9 5.5

8.3 5.2

8.9 7.3

9.5 6.1

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.7

13.5 1.6

12.9 -4.4

13.4 4.2

13.8 2.4

14.0 1.9

14.4 2.5

14.8 3.1

15.2 2.8

15.7 3.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.4

10.4 -1.9

10.0 -3.9

10.1 0.9

10.3 2.2

10.5 1.9

10.7 2.4

10.8 0.8

10.9 0.4

10.9 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.5

3.6 -7.8

3.7 1.6

3.7 -0.4

3.7 0.7

3.7 1.3

3.8 1.7

3.8 1.0

3.9 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.0

0.7 2.4

0.7 1.0

0.9 27.5

0.7 -24.2

0.7 -1.0

0.7 -2.0

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -0.3

16.0 3.6

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.2

16.9 0.3

16.9 0.3

16.5 -2.2

16.4 -0.6

16.5 0.7

16.7 0.8

16.9 1.2

17.1 1.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7146.7

7243.9

6988.5

6463.9

6373.1

6317.6

6385.5

6514.9

6717.7

6998.4

7303.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

317.3 4.0

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.9 0.3

331.5 0.2

332.6 0.3

333.9 0.4

337.3 1.0

343.4 1.8

351.9 2.5

361.2 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.6 4.6

137.7 3.9

138.4 0.5

135.0 -2.5

134.3 -0.5

134.0 -0.2

133.2 -0.6

136.6 2.6

139.7 2.3

142.6 2.0

145.1 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

3.4

4.4

7.8

12.5

13.4

12.3

10.3

10.1

9.9

9.4

8.8

7182.3 6884.7 298.0

3163.5 2820.2 343.0

1211.4 1189.4 22.0

408.3 390.7 18.0

494.4 492.1 2.0

357.9 356.0 2.0

532.6 522.7 10.0

1425.8 1343.8 82.0

2596.4 2423.9 172.0

3482.0 3276.2 206.0

3887.4 3666.5 221.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Oc a l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.3 3.6 3.5 7.8

11.4 4.9 3.5 7.9

11.5 5.2 3.6 8

11.7 5.1 3.6 8.1

11.8 5.1 3.7 8.2

12 4.9 3.7 8.3

12.2 5.7 3.7 8.4

12.3 5.7 3.8 8.5

12.5 5.8 3.8 8.7

12.7 6 3.9 8.8

12.9 5.9 4 9

13.1 6.2 4 9.1

13.3 6.3 4.1 9.2

13.5 6.5 4.1 9.4

9.7 2

9.8 3.5

9.9 4.1

10 3.8

10.1 4

10.2 3.6

10.3 4.2

10.4 4.1

10.5 4.2

10.6 4.3

10.7 4.2

10.9 4.6

11 4.7

11.1 4.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.7 29

34.1 29.3

34.4 29.5

34.7 29.7

35 29.8

35.3 30

35.8 30.3

36.1 30.4

36.4 30.5

36.7 30.6

37 30.8

37.4 31

37.7 31.2

38.1 31.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38 1.3

38.3 2.6

38.6 2.8

38.8 2.8

39.1 2.7

39.3 2.7

39.6 2.7

39.9 2.7

40.2 2.8

40.4 2.8

40.7 2.8

41 2.9

41.3 2.9

41.6 2.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

90.8 0

91.3 0.4

91.7 1.4

92.3 2

92.9 2.3

93.4 2.4

94 2.5

94.5 2.4

95 2.3

95.8 2.5

96.4 2.6

97.2 2.9

98 3.1

98.8 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 3.4

6.7 1.1

6.7 -0.4

6.7 0.9

6.8 1.4

6.8 1.6

6.8 2.2

6.8 1.7

6.9 1.6

6.9 1.5

6.9 1

6.9 1.2

6.9 1.1

7 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84.2 -0.2

84.6 0.4

85 1.5

85.6 2.1

86.1 2.3

86.7 2.4

87.2 2.5

87.7 2.4

88.2 2.4

88.9 2.6

89.5 2.7

90.3 3

91.1 3.2

91.8 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 -6.9

5.2 -4.6

5.3 -3.8

5.3 0.3

5.4 3.2

5.5 5.8

5.7 7.7

5.8 9.6

6 11.1

6.2 12.8

6.5 13.8

6.7 14.6

6.9 15.1

7.2 14.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 -1.8

20.3 0

20.4 1.4

20.5 2.3

20.6 2.3

20.7 2.2

20.8 1.9

20.8 1.5

20.9 1.3

21 1.4

21.1 1.6

21.2 2

21.4 2.3

21.6 2.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 14.3 2.6

3.2 14.4 2.7

3.2 14.5 2.7

3.2 14.6 2.7

3.2 14.7 2.7

3.3 14.7 2.8

3.3 14.7 2.8

3.3 14.7 2.8

3.3 14.8 2.8

3.3 14.8 2.8

3.3 14.8 2.9

3.4 14.9 2.9

3.4 15 2.9

3.4 15.1 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0.2

1.6 3

1.6 2

1.6 1.8

1.6 1.4

1.6 0.8

1.6 0.7

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.8

1.7 2.1

1.7 2.4

1.7 2.3

1.7 2.5

1.7 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 0.3

4.2 -1.7

4.2 1

4.3 2.8

4.3 2.8

4.3 2.9

4.4 2.6

4.4 2.6

4.4 2.3

4.4 1.8

4.4 1.3

4.4 1.1

4.5 1.1

4.5 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 3.2

7.6 3.2

7.8 6.2

7.9 5.3

8 5.3

8.1 5.3

8.1 4.8

8.2 4.8

8.4 5.3

8.5 5.8

8.7 6.7

8.8 7.3

9 7.6

9.2 7.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14 1.1

14.1 1.1

14.2 1.6

14.3 2.4

14.4 3.1

14.5 2.9

14.7 3.4

14.8 3.2

14.8 2.9

15 3.1

15.1 2.6

15.2 2.8

15.3 3

15.4 2.8

10.5 2

10.6 1.7

10.7 3

10.7 2.7

10.8 2

10.8 1.7

10.8 1.5

10.8 0.9

10.8 0.5

10.8 0.2

10.9 0.2

10.9 0.3

10.9 0.4

10.9 0.4

3.7 0

3.7 -1

3.7 0.3

3.7 1.2

3.8 1.8

3.8 1.9

3.8 1.8

3.8 1.9

3.8 1.7

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.1

3.8 1

3.9 0.9

3.9 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -2.3

0.7 -2.3

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -2

0.7 -2.2

0.7 -2.1

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 -0.3

16.5 0.5

16.5 1

16.5 0.4

16.6 0.6

16.6 0.8

16.6 0.8

16.7 0.8

16.7 0.7

16.7 0.8

16.8 1.1

16.9 1.2

16.9 1.4

17 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6394.7

6425.8

6457.3

6495.7

6530

6576.6

6625.5

6683.1

6743.9

6818.2

6885.1

6960.4

7036.9

7111.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

334.1 0.4

334.7 0.5

335.5 0.7

336.6 0.9

337.8 1.1

339.1 1.3

340.7 1.5

342.3 1.7

344.3 1.9

346.3 2.1

348.5 2.3

350.7 2.5

353 2.5

355.3 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

133.2 -0.8

134.2 -0.2

135.4 2.1

136.2 2.7

137.1 2.9

137.9 2.7

138.5 2.3

139.3 2.3

140.1 2.2

140.9 2.2

141.5 2.2

142.2 2.1

143 2

143.5 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.3

10.3

10.2

10.1

10.1

10.1

10.1

10

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.4

9.3

9.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

576 561 15

760 738 22

977 933 45

1264 1195 69

1579 1484 95

1883 1763 120

2140 1996 145

2487 2321 166

2753 2569 184

3005 2810 194

3212 3007 205

3416 3210 205

3589 3382 207

3712 3505 206

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Predators arena football team. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 4.9 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.0. Average annual wage growth will be 2.2 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of 46.0. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.9 percent, the highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 100,439.51 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.0 percent annually. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.3 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -1.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,021,183,903 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,109,000 in April 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to about 98,701 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,000 Orange County Public Schools – 20,949 Advent Health System (Florida Hospital) – 16,771 Universal Orlando Resort – 16,000 Orlando Health – 13,666 UPS – 12,680 University of Central Florida – 10,386 Lockheed Martin Corp. – 9,000 Orange County Government – 7,654 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 7,000

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Book of Lists 2012 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Orlando OKs economic incentives for 2 companies • The city of Orlando approved more than $140,000 in economic incentives for two healthcare-related companies that will bring jobs and growth to the city. • One of the companies, Benecard Services Inc., an in-house prescription-benefit administrator, already owns a building in south Orlando and is looking to expand its local operations and possibly make Orlando its headquarters.

• The other company, Mazor, a miniature roboticsurgery company, is looking at leasing 4,000 square feet in Florida Hospital’s Health Village for its U.S. headquarters. Mazor would create 34 jobs over the next three years with an average annual wage of $81,660. Source: The Orlando Sentinel, August 22, 2012

O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

Orlando Airport toll plaza to get $42M makeover • Orlando’s road-building agency will launch a $42 million renovation of the toll plaza on the BeachLine Expressway near Orlando International Airport.

• The overhaul is expected to take two years and could begin in October. • This is the second Orlando Orange County Expressway Authority project in recent months that will affect the airport. In all, the expressway authority is investing $112 million on the main north and south gateways into OIA, which handles 35 million passengers a year.

Central Florida Zoo expansion

• The Central Florida Zoo & Botanical Gardens plans to launch one of its largest fundraising drives in its history to build a Wild African Safari Park. • Seminole County commissioners unanimously agreed to purchase nearly 17 acres for the nonprofit zoo’s expansion at the price of about $1.45 million.

Source: The Orlando Sentinel, August 23, 2012

Source: The Orlando Sentinel, August 22, 2012

Microsoft donates $1.5 million to Orlando youth groups • Microsoft donated $1.5 million in software to Orlando organizations dedicated to helping area youths, including Junior Achievement of Central Florida, The YMCA of Central Florida, and Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida.

• The donation was done at the grand opening of the Microsoft Store at the Florida Mall, which is Microsoft’s first retail store in Florida. • Similar to Apple, the Microsoft Store in Orlando features a selection of their products and software. Source: The Orlando Sentinel, August 23, 2012

MD Anderson Orlando debuts $1.3M Gynecologic Cancer Center

• On September 17 the MD Anderson Cancer Center of Orlando opened its new 9,800-square-foot Gynecologic Cancer Center facility.

• The new clinic has eight exam rooms and 10 chemotherapy rooms, as well as 20 employees. This will increase the number of patients seen and bring a more multi-disciplinary approach to treatment. Source: The Orlando Business Journal, September 17, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

110000.0 100000.0

10.0%

90000.0

8.0% 80000.0

6.0%

70000.0

4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment

Orlando Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

(percent change year ago)

1150.0

12.0%

1100.0

9.0% 6.0%

1050.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0%

950.0

-3.0%

900.0 850.0

66

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5

73.4 5.0 45.5 27.9

75.1 2.3 45.2 29.9

71.1 -5.3 42.3 28.8

73.5 3.4 42.9 30.7

77.0 4.7 44.3 32.7

79.4 3.1 45.5 33.8

83.5 5.1 47.6 35.9

88.0 5.5 49.7 38.3

93.2 5.9 52.4 40.9

99.1 6.3 55.1 44.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 6.4

69.6 2.2

68.9 -0.9

65.2 -5.4

66.2 1.5

67.6 2.2

68.6 1.4

71.2 3.9

74.0 3.9

77.2 4.3

80.5 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.6 33.7

35.6 33.8

35.9 33.0

33.6 30.8

34.3 30.9

35.4 31.1

36.0 31.1

37.1 31.7

38.3 32.2

39.7 32.8

41.2 33.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.7 3.6

41.6 2.2

42.0 0.9

41.9 -0.2

42.6 1.8

43.6 2.3

44.4 1.9

45.4 2.3

46.4 2.3

47.6 2.4

48.7 2.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1063.9 4.3

1090.6 2.5

1072.4 -1.7

1005.6 -6.2

1000.9 -0.5

1011.8 1.1

1021.2 0.9

1043.7 2.2

1066.8 2.2

1096.8 2.8

1127.7 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

45.0 -1.9

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.6

38.0 -1.8

38.0 -0.1

38.1 0.2

38.7 1.7

39.5 2.0

40.0 1.3

40.4 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1019.0 4.6

1046.0 2.6

1029.6 -1.6

966.9 -6.1

962.9 -0.4

973.8 1.1

983.2 1.0

1005.0 2.2

1027.3 2.2

1056.8 2.9

1087.3 2.9

91.2 8.0

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25.0

47.7 -12.5

43.8 -8.1

43.3 -1.3

44.1 2.0

48.4 9.6

55.6 14.9

62.1 11.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

198.9 3.1

204.0 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186.0 -7.4

186.1 0.0

189.8 2.0

192.8 1.6

197.6 2.5

201.5 1.9

206.6 2.6

212.8 3.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

46.2 122.4 30.3

47.2 123.7 33.0

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.1 121.6 30.1

38.6 123.3 30.8

40.2 125.5 31.9

41.4 126.7 33.2

43.1 128.1 34.5

44.6 130.9 36.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 4.6

26.7 3.7

26.2 -1.8

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4.0

23.8 -0.1

23.8 0.0

24.3 2.1

24.7 1.7

25.3 2.5

25.8 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.1 5.1

68.9 1.1

67.6 -1.9

63.9 -5.4

63.2 -1.1

64.7 2.3

64.7 0.0

65.6 1.4

66.4 1.2

66.9 0.8

67.5 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

173.1 7.5

181.3 4.7

177.2 -2.2

164.8 -7.0

161.9 -1.8

161.1 -0.5

160.9 -0.1

168.2 4.6

175.5 4.3

185.9 5.9

195.5 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

107.5 5.2

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.4 1.7

120.9 2.0

123.1 1.8

123.0 -0.1

125.7 2.2

129.4 3.0

133.5 3.1

138.7 3.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

186.9 1.8

193.6 3.6

199.5 3.1

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

204.0 4.3

211.6 3.7

215.4 1.8

216.1 0.3

216.1 0.0

216.1 0.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

53.4 7.1

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48.0 -6.7

47.5 -1.0

47.6 0.2

47.5 -0.3

47.9 0.8

48.6 1.5

49.1 1.1

49.6 1.0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 -3.5

11.5 0.3

11.8 2.7

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.8

12.0 -6.0

12.1 0.7

11.9 -1.8

11.6 -2.1

11.5 -1.4

11.4 -0.5

102.7 4.1

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.3 -1.5

103.6 -0.7

104.0 0.3

103.7 -0.2

104.4 0.7

105.2 0.8

106.4 1.2

107.9 1.4

97497.0 100586.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

98297.1

92600.9

93866.3

94343.1

95918.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023.1 3.1

2061.0 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116.0 1.2

2144.6 1.4

2175.3 1.4

2208.4 1.5

2248.3 1.8

2295.5 2.1

2349.6 2.4

2403.1 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1048.6 4.1

1103.3 5.2

1120.1 1.5

1104.4 -1.4

1113.5 0.8

1122.4 0.8

1125.7 0.3

1139.4 1.2

1155.0 1.4

1174.9 1.7

1199.6 2.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

98336.9 101552.4 105950.5 110551.5

3.1

3.7

5.9

10.3

11.2

10.4

8.7

8.3

8.0

7.4

6.7

30103.5 24386.4 5717.0

18029.2 12621.5 5408.0

10403.1 5567.1 4836.0

4485.1 3761.2 724.0

5004.3 4408.6 596.0

5689.5 4480.6 1209.0

8730.6 7016.7 1714.0

12256.8 8776.1 3481.0

17380.2 12060.1 5320.0

22779.7 16516.0 6264.0

25817.2 18664.2 7153.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – Ki s s imm e e

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

79.9 3.2 45.8 34.1

80.9 4.5 46.3 34.6

81.9 5.2 46.8 35

83 5.1 47.3 35.6

84 5.1 47.9 36.1

85 5.1 48.4 36.6

86.3 5.5 48.9 37.4

87.4 5.3 49.4 37.9

88.6 5.4 50 38.6

89.8 5.6 50.6 39.2

91.2 5.7 51.3 39.9

92.6 5.9 52 40.5

93.9 6 52.7 41.2

95.2 6.1 53.4 41.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.8 1.6

69.6 3

70.3 4.1

71 3.8

71.6 4

72.2 3.7

73 3.9

73.6 3.7

74.3 3.8

75.1 4

75.9 4

76.8 4.3

77.6 4.4

78.3 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.1 31.1

36.4 31.3

36.7 31.5

37 31.6

37.3 31.8

37.5 31.9

37.9 32.1

38.2 32.2

38.5 32.3

38.8 32.4

39.2 32.6

39.5 32.8

39.8 32.9

40.2 33

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 1.2

44.8 2.3

45.1 2.4

45.3 2.3

45.5 2.2

45.8 2.2

46.1 2.2

46.3 2.2

46.6 2.3

46.8 2.3

47.1 2.4

47.4 2.4

47.7 2.5

48 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1023.8 1.3

1029.3 1.2

1035.1 2.2

1040.7 2.1

1046.5 2.2

1052.6 2.3

1057.7 2.2

1063.1 2.2

1069.3 2.2

1076.9 2.3

1084.7 2.6

1092.6 2.8

1100.8 2.9

1109.1 3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

38.1 1

38.2 1.2

38.3 0.9

38.6 1.6

38.8 2

39 2.2

39.3 2.5

39.4 2.1

39.5 1.9

39.7 1.7

39.8 1.5

39.9 1.4

40 1.2

40.1 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

985.7 1.3

991.1 1.2

996.8 2.3

1002.1 2.1

1007.7 2.2

1013.5 2.3

1018.4 2.2

1023.8 2.2

1029.8 2.2

1037.2 2.3

1044.9 2.6

1052.6 2.8

1060.8 3

1068.9 3.1

43.2 1.4

43.1 0.5

43.3 0.5

43.7 -0.2

44.3 2.6

45.3 5

46.3 7

47.6 8.9

49 10.5

50.6 11.7

52.6 13.6

54.6 14.7

56.6 15.5

58.4 15.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

193.4 2

194.5 2.5

196 2.7

197 2.4

198.3 2.5

199.3 2.4

199.9 2

200.8 1.9

201.9 1.8

203.3 2

204.4 2.2

205.7 2.4

207.3 2.7

209.1 2.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

39.1 123.5 30.8

39.3 123.9 31.1

39.7 124.7 31.4

40 125.2 31.8

40.3 125.9 32.1

40.6 126.3 32.4

40.9 126.3 32.7

41.2 126.5 33

41.6 126.8 33.3

42 127.1 33.6

42.5 127.3 34

42.9 127.6 34.4

43.3 128.3 34.7

43.7 129.1 35.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 1

23.9 0.5

24.1 2.4

24.3 2.2

24.3 2.1

24.3 1.6

24.5 1.3

24.7 1.6

24.8 1.8

24.8 2.1

25.1 2.5

25.2 2.3

25.4 2.5

25.5 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

64.8 -0.5

65 -0.3

65.2 1.7

65.4 1.2

65.7 1.3

65.9 1.4

66.1 1.3

66.3 1.3

66.4 1.2

66.6 1

66.7 0.9

66.8 0.8

67 0.8

67.1 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

161.8 0.6

163.6 1.2

165.5 4.8

167.4 4.6

169.2 4.5

170.9 4.4

172.1 3.9

174 3.9

176.5 4.4

179.5 5

182 5.8

184.6 6.1

187.3 6.1

189.5 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

122.8 -0.3

123.9 0

124.4 1.5

125.2 2.2

126.1 2.7

127.1 2.5

128.2 3.1

129 3.1

129.7 2.8

130.7 2.9

131.6 2.6

132.9 3

134.1 3.4

135.3 3.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

212.4 3.9

213.5 2.6

214.4 2.3

215.2 2.2

215.6 1.5

216.2 1.3

216.4 0.9

216.2 0.5

215.9 0.1

215.9 -0.1

216.2 -0.1

216 -0.1

215.9 0

216.2 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.3 -0.7

47.5 -0.8

47.7 0.1

47.8 0.5

47.9 1.2

48.1 1.4

48.3 1.4

48.5 1.6

48.7 1.7

48.8 1.3

48.9 1.3

49.1 1.1

49.2 1

49.3 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 0.2

12 -0.6

12 -1

11.9 -1.8

11.8 -2.1

11.8 -2.2

11.7 -2.2

11.6 -2.2

11.6 -2.1

11.5 -2

11.5 -1.8

11.5 -1.5

11.4 -1.2

11.4 -0.9

103.9 0.1

104 0

104.1 0.9

104.3 0.5

104.5 0.5

104.7 0.7

104.9 0.7

105.1 0.7

105.3 0.8

105.6 0.8

105.9 1

106.3 1.2

106.6 1.3

107 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

96209.2

96760.2

97372.3

97996.1

98597.4

99381.7

100089

101011

101976

103134

104225

105377

106537

107664

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2212.5 1.5

2222.3 1.6

2232.4 1.7

2242.7 1.8

2253.3 1.8

2264.8 1.9

2276.6 2

2288.8 2.1

2301.7 2.1

2315 2.2

2328.8 2.3

2342.7 2.4

2356.7 2.4

2370.2 2.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1127.7 0.4

1130.9 0.3

1133.6 1.2

1137.3 1.1

1141.1 1.2

1145.6 1.3

1149.3 1.4

1153 1.4

1156.9 1.4

1160.8 1.3

1165.5 1.4

1171.6 1.6

1178.6 1.9

1184.1 2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.1

8

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.4

7.2

8832 7424 1408

9532 7708 1825

10525 7929 2597

11656 8387 3269

12943 9107 3836

13903 9682 4221

15140 10351 4788

16578 11419 5159

18137 12603 5534

19666 13868 5798

20985 14997 5988

22291 16140 6150

23524 17133 6391

24319 17794 6525

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.4 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 35.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at 52.1, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 16,769.72 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 267,597 in December of 2011 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 11.1% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,662 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County School Board- 9,140

• Health First Employees - 6,350

• Harris Corporation Employees - 6,130

• United Space Alliance, LLC Employees – 3,830 • Brevard County Board of County Comm. – 2,390

• Department of Defense - 2260

• Health Management Associates – 2,220 • NASA – 2,210

• Brevard Community College – 1,580

• Rockwell Collins, Inc. Employees - 1,500 • DRS INC – 1,440

• Northrup Grumman – 1,400

• Florida Institute of Technology – 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.6 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 8.7 percent, the third highest of the studied metros.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.2 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest annual growth rate at 3.6 percent, followed closely by the Information sector at 1.4 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -3.0 percent annually.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Contractors on the brink

• With massive defense cuts looming in early 2013, local contractors hope Congress takes action soon.

• These cuts are a result of the sequestration agreement made in congress, which promises cuts to partisan programs, such as defense and welfare, if congress cannot agree on fiscal policy. • 1,600 in Brevard County could be punished if Congress can’t restore the money • Brevard stands to lose about $300 million, officials say. Source: FloridaToday.com, August 20, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Jobs agency alters course to aid space employees

• Mass layoffs of local shuttle workers loomed in June 2010 when help arrived in the form of a $15 million emergency grant from the U.S. Department of Labor.

• Most of the money was budgeted to go to onthe-job training, but surprisingly it has instead been spent on more basic career services, like how to search for a job, write resumes, interview and network.

• The grant’s ultimate goal remains to serve a total of 3,200 displaced aerospace workers, with at least 2,240 finding new employment.Brevard Workforce is optimistic it will meet by the time the grant expires next June.

Source: FloridaToday.com, August 22, 2012

Space Florida helps finance exhibit

• Space Florida has used its ability to help with financing to provide $62.5 million in credit to support the construction of the Space Shuttle Atlantis Exhibit at Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex with the help of Bank of America.

• Scheduled to open next summer, the $100 million project includes the 90,000-square-foot Atlantis exhibit, orbiter display preparation, transportation, interactive exhibits and utilization of space shuttle program artifacts. • The loan will be repaid with Visitor Complex concessions.

Source: FloridaToday.com, August 20, 2012

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Harris lands $331M FAA contract

• Harris Corp. has been awarded a seven-year, $331 million contract to provide air-to-ground data communications services for a key Federal Aviation Administration program. • The program could improve arrival and departure routes, thereby saving fuel and reducing emissions.

• Harris also is building a payload that will be orbited on a constellation of GPS satellites to help the FAA track aircraft worldwide. Source: FloridaToday.com, August 20, 2012

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

3

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

(percent change year ago)

12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.4 3.5 9.5 11.0

19.7 -3.5 9.2 10.5

20.3 2.8 9.3 11.0

21.0 3.7 9.5 11.5

21.6 2.9 9.7 11.9

22.6 4.4 10.2 12.4

23.7 5.0 10.7 13.1

25.0 5.5 11.2 13.8

26.6 6.2 11.8 14.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 4.6

18.7 1.8

18.8 0.2

18.1 -3.6

18.3 0.9

18.5 1.2

18.7 1.1

19.3 3.2

19.9 3.4

20.7 3.8

21.6 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.3 34.3

36.6 34.7

37.7 34.6

36.4 33.4

37.3 33.6

38.7 34.0

39.6 34.2

41.0 35.0

42.5 35.7

44.2 36.6

46.2 37.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.8 2.9

43.8 2.5

45.1 2.9

46.1 2.2

47.0 2.0

48.3 2.6

49.2 2.0

50.6 2.8

52.0 2.7

53.5 2.9

55.1 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

216.3 2.5

213.7 -1.2

207.3 -3.0

196.6 -5.1

195.0 -0.8

193.7 -0.6

194.8 0.6

198.2 1.8

201.9 1.9

206.7 2.4

211.9 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8.0

20.5 -5.9

20.5 -0.4

20.4 -0.4

20.8 1.9

21.2 2.2

21.5 1.4

21.7 1.0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

191.7 2.5

189.6 -1.1

183.5 -3.2

174.8 -4.8

174.4 -0.2

173.2 -0.7

174.4 0.7

177.4 1.7

180.7 1.8

185.2 2.5

190.1 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 5.0

15.4 -15.0

13.0 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.1 -7.0

7.4 -8.1

7.5 0.7

8.2 10.0

9.4 14.2

10.5 11.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 1.0

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.8

33.0 -6.9

32.7 -0.9

34.1 4.3

35.3 3.3

35.8 1.5

36.1 0.8

36.6 1.4

37.4 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28.0 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.0 24.7 3.0

5.2 25.1 3.8

5.3 25.8 4.1

5.4 26.2 4.1

5.5 26.3 4.2

5.7 26.4 4.4

5.9 26.8 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 0.1

2.5 -3.0

2.5 2.7

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.8

2.3 -6.0

2.3 1.6

2.3 0.6

2.3 1.1

2.4 2.1

2.4 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.5

7.3 -3.8

7.4 1.1

7.6 2.1

7.7 1.7

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 3.6

36.9 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.5 0.7

30.8 -5.3

30.4 -1.2

32.0 5.1

33.4 4.2

35.4 6.2

37.3 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 3.1

29.3 4.0

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.8

32.3 3.4

32.8 1.8

33.6 2.2

34.2 2.0

35.1 2.5

35.8 2.1

36.8 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 3.3

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4.1

21.3 -4.0

21.2 -0.4

21.5 1.6

22.0 2.3

22.2 0.8

22.1 -0.4

22.0 -0.7

21.9 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -0.8

8.0 -1.1

7.9 -1.6

7.4 -5.7

7.6 2.8

7.8 2.4

7.8 -0.2

7.8 0.4

7.9 0.8

7.9 0.2

7.9 0.5

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.4

6.4 -5.4

6.1 -4.1

5.9 -2.9

5.8 -2.9

5.6 -2.2

5.6 -1.3

22.6 1.7

22.8 1.0

22.8 0.0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.8

22.1 -2.4

22.1 0.0

22.1 0.0

22.1 0.3

22.3 0.7

22.5 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16960.5

16926.1

16509.4

15895.9

15990.4

15869.2

16107.8

16447.2

16940.1

17583.8

18262.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

535.7 1.0

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.4 0.1

543.2 0.1

543.8 0.1

546.2 0.4

550.9 0.9

557.9 1.3

566.3 1.5

574.7 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.5 1.6

266.8 1.6

269.0 0.8

266.3 -1.0

266.9 0.2

267.6 0.3

267.5 0.0

268.0 0.2

269.0 0.4

271.5 0.9

274.9 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

3.2

4.2

6.5

10.2

11.1

11.1

9.5

8.8

8.5

8.0

7.4

5322.4 4388.5 934.0

2863.5 2218.8 645.0

1667.7 1283.4 384.0

973.0 868.0 105.0

1084.9 994.7 90.0

961.6 843.4 118.0

1155.9 1100.8 55.0

2281.5 1905.7 376.0

3749.0 2957.2 792.0

5025.8 3990.3 1035.0

5628.5 4476.1 1152.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.7 3.1 9.8 12

22 4.6 9.9 12.1

22.2 4.5 10 12.2

22.5 4.4 10.1 12.3

22.7 4.5 10.2 12.5

23 4.3 10.4 12.6

23.3 4.9 10.5 12.9

23.6 4.9 10.6 13

23.8 5 10.7 13.1

24.1 5.2 10.8 13.3

24.5 5.1 11 13.5

24.8 5.4 11.1 13.7

25.2 5.6 11.3 13.9

25.6 5.8 11.4 14.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 1.5

18.9 3.2

19.1 3.4

19.2 3.2

19.4 3.3

19.5 3

19.7 3.4

19.8 3.3

20 3.4

20.2 3.5

20.4 3.4

20.6 3.8

20.8 4

21 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.8 34.3

40.2 34.6

40.5 34.7

40.8 34.9

41.2 35.1

41.5 35.3

42 35.5

42.3 35.6

42.7 35.8

43 36

43.5 36.2

43.9 36.5

44.4 36.7

44.9 36.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.4 1.3

49.7 2.6

50.1 2.8

50.4 2.8

50.7 2.7

51.1 2.7

51.4 2.7

51.8 2.7

52.1 2.8

52.5 2.8

52.9 2.8

53.3 2.9

53.7 2.9

54.1 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195 1

195.8 1.6

196.7 1.5

197.8 1.7

198.7 1.9

199.6 2

200.6 2

201.3 1.8

202.3 1.8

203.5 1.9

204.6 2

206 2.3

207.4 2.5

208.8 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 -0.3

20.4 -0.2

20.6 1

20.7 2

20.8 2.3

20.9 2.5

21.1 2.7

21.2 2.1

21.3 2

21.4 2

21.4 1.4

21.5 1.5

21.6 1.4

21.6 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

174.6 1.2

175.4 1.9

176.2 1.5

177 1.7

177.9 1.9

178.7 1.9

179.5 1.9

180.2 1.8

181 1.8

182.1 1.9

183.2 2.1

184.5 2.4

185.8 2.7

187.2 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 -8.5

7.2 -7.3

7.3 -5.3

7.4 0.1

7.5 2.9

7.6 5.5

7.8 7.4

8.1 9.3

8.3 10.8

8.6 12.5

8.9 13.5

9.2 14.3

9.5 14.8

9.8 14.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.3 1.8

35.5 2.8

35.6 1.4

35.7 1.6

35.9 1.6

36 1.5

36 1.1

36 0.8

36.1 0.5

36.2 0.6

36.3 0.8

36.4 1.2

36.6 1.6

36.9 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 25.9 4.1

5.4 26 4.1

5.4 26.1 4.1

5.4 26.2 4.1

5.5 26.3 4.2

5.5 26.3 4.2

5.5 26.3 4.2

5.5 26.2 4.2

5.6 26.2 4.2

5.6 26.3 4.3

5.6 26.2 4.3

5.7 26.3 4.3

5.7 26.4 4.4

5.8 26.5 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 0.7

2.3 -0.3

2.3 -0.9

2.3 1.5

2.3 1.2

2.3 0.7

2.3 0.7

2.3 1

2.3 1.2

2.3 1.3

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.8

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 1.4

7.5 2.5

7.5 1.7

7.6 2.2

7.6 2.2

7.6 2.3

7.7 2

7.7 2

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.2

7.7 0.8

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.8 3.2

31.1 6.5

31.5 7.4

31.9 4.5

32.2 4.4

32.5 4.4

32.7 3.8

33.1 3.8

33.6 4.3

34 4.7

34.5 5.6

35.2 6.2

35.8 6.6

36.3 6.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.5 2.1

33.8 2.1

33.9 1.5

34.1 1.7

34.3 2.4

34.5 2.2

34.8 2.7

35 2.5

35.1 2.3

35.4 2.5

35.5 2

35.7 2.1

35.9 2.3

36.1 2.2

22 1.8

22.1 0.7

22.2 0

22.2 1.7

22.2 1

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.4

22.2 -0.2

22.1 -0.7

22.1 -0.9

22.1 -0.9

22 -0.8

22 -0.6

21.9 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -0.9

7.8 -0.4

7.8 -0.6

7.8 0.4

7.8 1

7.9 0.9

7.9 0.8

7.9 1

7.9 0.9

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.3

7.9 0.2

7.9 0.1

7.9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -4.2

6.1 -3.6

6 -2.9

6 -2.5

5.9 -2.9

5.9 -3.2

5.8 -3.1

5.8 -3

5.7 -2.9

5.7 -2.8

5.7 -2.6

5.7 -2.3

5.6 -2

5.6 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 1.1

22.1 0.5

22.1 -0.2

22.1 0

22.1 0.1

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.3

22.2 0.5

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.8

22.4 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16137.2

16213.3

16300.2

16399.7

16486.4

16602.3

16725.2

16860.8

17001.6

17172.8

17321.4

17497.9

17673.6

17842.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

546.6 0.5

547.5 0.6

548.8 0.7

550.1 0.8

551.6 0.9

553.2 1

555 1.1

556.9 1.2

558.9 1.3

560.9 1.4

563 1.4

565.3 1.5

567.4 1.5

569.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

268 0.2

267.7 0.1

267.4 0.3

267.8 0.1

268.2 0.1

268.6 0.3

268.7 0.5

268.9 0.4

269.1 0.3

269.3 0.3

270.1 0.5

271 0.8

272.1 1.1

272.8 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.4

9.2

9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.2

8

7.9

7.8

1290 1195 94

1480 1361 119

1752 1524 228

2080 1762 318

2477 2051 427

2817 2286 531

3148 2500 648

3565 2817 748

3956 3110 846

4327 3402 925

4629 3646 982

4922 3906 1017

5192 4131 1062

5360 4278 1082

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.7 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.8. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.3 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 43.1. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.6 percent, the lowest of the studied metro areas. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 12,812.14 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 206,530 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application).

• An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2012. This amounts to 16,239 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857 employees

• Federal Government – 7,162 employees

• Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • State Government – 5,253 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 employees

• Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,365 employees

Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Employment growth is expected to average 0.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 7.6 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 4.1 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.6 percent. Other Services, The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are all expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -0.8 percent, -0.5 percent, and -2.8 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Escambia, Santa Rosa counties plan for RESTORE Act funding

• The recently passed federal RESTORE Act mandates that 80% of fines levied on BP go to Gulf Coast communities most affected by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. • Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are developing committees that will manage the proposals for how the money will be spent. • Each county is in line to receive millions of dollars; Escambia County’s share could total more than $100 million.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 14, 2012

P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e nt

Pensacola Mayor Hayward vetoes City Council budget amendment

• Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward issued the first line-item veto of his administration.

• The amendment that was vetoed was passed by the City Council and would have moved $220,000 in marketing and advertising dollars out of the budget.

• Mayor Hayward argued that the money is necessary to rebrand the city and appear desirable to businesses and residents, but council members disagreed about the cost and effectiveness of the campaign. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 18, 2012

New year, many new features at the University of West Florida

TEAM Santa Rosa winding down duties

• The TEAM Santa Rosa contract was terminated on August 31 after County Commissioners and TEAM could not agree on new terms.

• TEAM conducted economic development for Santa Rosa County for nearly twenty years; now the county is directly responsible for economic development. • TEAM is currently in the process of ending its duties, including an audit of fiscal year 2012, which ends on September 30. After the final tasks are complete, the TEAM Board of Directors will vote to dissolve in early 2013. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 18, 2012

• UWF began the fall with nearly 13,000 students, a 6% increase from last fall and surpassing the goal of 12,000 students by 2012. The 2,000 freshmen represent a 26% increase over last fall.

• A new business building and a new residence hall have been added to the campus this year, in addition to renovations to existing buildings and improvements in the technological offerings of the University. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 3, 2012

Santa Rosa County plans tourism study

• The Santa Rosa County Commission unanimously approved a study to determine how much visitors spend in the county and how tourism impacts the economy of the area.

• The Commission approved up to $15,000 on the study, funded by the county’s bed tax, to be conducted by the University of West Florida’s Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development. • No such study has been conducted before. All previous assessments have been conducted on bed tax revenue alone. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 13, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

13500.0 13000.0

10.0%

12500.0 12000.0

6.0%

11500.0

4.0% 2.0%

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

12.0%

8.0%

1

11000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment

(percent change year ago)

(Thousands)

175.0

8.0%

170.0

6.0% 4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0 150.0

76

-2.0% -4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e nt

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4

14.9 5.1 7.0 7.9

15.3 3.3 7.0 8.4

15.1 -1.3 6.9 8.3

15.8 4.1 6.9 8.8

16.5 4.4 7.1 9.4

16.7 1.7 7.1 9.7

17.4 3.8 7.3 10.0

18.2 4.5 7.6 10.6

19.1 4.9 7.9 11.1

20.1 5.4 8.3 11.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 5.7

14.1 2.4

14.1 0.1

13.9 -1.4

14.2 2.1

14.5 1.9

14.5 0.0

14.8 2.6

15.3 2.9

15.8 3.3

16.3 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.9 31.0

33.5 31.7

34.4 31.6

33.9 31.1

35.0 31.5

36.3 31.9

36.7 31.7

38.0 32.4

39.4 33.1

41.0 33.9

42.7 34.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 5.1

37.5 2.6

38.8 3.4

39.9 2.9

40.0 0.2

40.8 2.0

41.6 1.9

42.6 2.4

43.6 2.3

44.6 2.5

45.8 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.6 2.6

172.6 0.0

165.1 -4.3

157.0 -4.9

159.1 1.4

160.4 0.8

157.0 -2.1

158.8 1.1

161.1 1.4

164.3 2.0

167.7 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -1.4

7.0 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.3 -0.5

5.3 -0.2

5.4 0.9

5.5 1.4

5.5 0.8

5.5 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.2 2.8

165.6 0.3

158.6 -4.2

151.6 -4.5

153.7 1.4

155.0 0.8

151.7 -2.2

153.5 1.2

155.7 1.4

158.8 2.0

162.1 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 10.4

14.7 -3.9

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.9 -6.4

9.3 -6.3

9.3 0.1

10.1 9.2

11.5 13.3

12.7 10.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.0 -0.2

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.7 0.9

29.1 -1.7

29.6 1.4

29.7 0.4

30.0 1.0

30.5 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.2 21.8 5.0

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

5.0 20.7 4.0

4.8 20.4 4.0

4.8 20.6 4.1

4.9 20.6 4.2

5.0 20.7 4.3

5.1 20.9 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -6.8

3.3 1.6

3.2 -2.4

3.1 -2.8

3.2 1.1

3.2 0.8

3.2 1.8

3.3 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 8.4

9.2 3.0

8.8 -3.7

8.6 -2.8

8.5 -1.2

8.5 0.2

8.4 -1.7

8.5 1.7

8.6 1.2

8.6 0.1

8.6 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 0.6

20.6 -4.6

19.1 -7.0

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

20.7 5.3

20.0 -3.5

20.8 3.9

21.6 4.0

22.9 6.0

24.0 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.5 5.9

28.7 4.2

28.2 -1.5

28.0 -1.0

28.9 3.4

29.3 1.5

28.8 -1.7

29.2 1.4

29.8 2.0

30.3 1.5

30.9 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 2.5

18.0 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.2

19.2 -0.1

19.4 1.4

19.3 -0.5

19.2 -0.9

19.0 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 0.0

7.8 -0.5

7.3 -6.4

6.7 -8.5

6.4 -4.5

6.1 -4.2

5.8 -4.3

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.7

5.9 0.0

5.9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.3

6.9 -4.5

6.7 -2.5

6.5 -3.0

6.3 -3.3

6.1 -2.5

6.0 -1.7

22.5 1.4

22.7 1.0

22.3 -1.8

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -1.0

21.3 -1.3

21.2 -0.5

21.1 -0.3

21.1 0.0

21.2 0.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13082.1

13211.0

12805.7

12353.3

12588.7

12587.3

12478.9

12620.2

12880.8

13268.7

13689.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

443.2 0.7

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.1 0.4

450.1 0.7

453.5 0.8

455.9 0.5

458.0 0.5

461.1 0.7

465.3 0.9

470.5 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

205.6 2.0

211.3 2.8

208.5 -1.3

206.9 -0.8

210.8 1.9

213.7 1.4

210.1 -1.7

212.0 0.9

214.3 1.1

216.2 0.9

217.8 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.0

3.7

5.8

9.4

10.0

9.8

8.4

7.8

7.4

6.9

6.4

2866.8 2333.2 534.0

2425.4 1786.8 639.0

1325.4 1126.7 199.0

1035.3 954.8 81.0

1824.9 1368.7 456.0

1195.1 1194.8 0.0

1341.1 1321.6 19.0

1474.6 1299.7 175.0

1880.5 1590.1 290.0

2447.3 2121.1 326.0

2692.6 2360.6 332.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.8 1.6 7.1 9.7

17 3.5 7.2 9.8

17.1 4 7.2 9.9

17.3 3.8 7.3 10

17.5 3.8 7.4 10.1

17.6 3.7 7.4 10.2

17.9 4.4 7.5 10.4

18.1 4.4 7.6 10.5

18.3 4.5 7.6 10.6

18.5 4.6 7.7 10.7

18.7 4.6 7.8 10.9

18.9 4.9 7.9 11

19.2 5 8 11.2

19.4 5.2 8.1 11.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 0.1

14.6 2

14.7 2.9

14.8 2.6

14.9 2.7

15 2.4

15.1 2.9

15.2 2.8

15.3 2.9

15.4 3

15.6 2.9

15.7 3.3

15.8 3.4

16 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.9 31.8

37.2 32

37.5 32.2

37.8 32.3

38.1 32.5

38.4 32.6

38.9 32.9

39.2 33

39.5 33.2

39.9 33.4

40.4 33.6

40.8 33.8

41.2 34

41.6 34.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.7 1.2

41.9 2.4

42.2 2.5

42.4 2.4

42.7 2.3

42.9 2.3

43.2 2.3

43.4 2.3

43.7 2.4

43.9 2.4

44.2 2.4

44.5 2.5

44.8 2.5

45.1 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

157.1 -2.3

157.5 -0.6

158 0.9

158.6 1.1

159.1 1.3

159.7 1.4

160.3 1.4

160.7 1.4

161.3 1.4

162.1 1.5

162.9 1.6

163.8 1.9

164.7 2.1

165.7 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 0.6

5.3 0.8

5.3 0.5

5.4 0.6

5.4 1.1

5.4 1.3

5.4 1.9

5.4 1.4

5.5 1.3

5.5 1.2

5.5 0.9

5.5 0.9

5.5 0.8

5.5 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.8 -2.4

152.2 -0.7

152.6 0.9

153.2 1.1

153.7 1.3

154.3 1.4

154.8 1.4

155.3 1.4

155.9 1.4

156.6 1.5

157.4 1.7

158.3 1.9

159.2 2.2

160.1 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 -5.6

9 -6.9

9.1 -5.7

9.2 -0.6

9.3 2.2

9.5 4.7

9.7 6.6

9.9 8.4

10.2 10

10.6 11.6

10.9 12.6

11.3 13.4

11.6 13.9

12 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 -2.1

29.3 0.5

29.4 2.1

29.5 1.2

29.6 1.2

29.7 1.1

29.7 0.8

29.6 0.4

29.7 0.2

29.7 0.3

29.8 0.5

29.9 0.8

30 1.2

30.2 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 20.4 4

4.8 20.5 4

4.8 20.6 4.1

4.8 20.6 4.1

4.8 20.7 4.1

4.8 20.7 4.1

4.8 20.7 4.2

4.8 20.6 4.2

4.9 20.6 4.2

4.9 20.6 4.2

4.9 20.6 4.2

4.9 20.6 4.2

5 20.7 4.3

5 20.8 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -1.7

3.1 -0.6

3.1 2.2

3.2 1.1

3.2 0.8

3.1 0.3

3.2 0.4

3.2 0.8

3.2 0.9

3.2 1

3.2 1.3

3.2 1.5

3.2 1.9

3.3 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -1.3

8.4 0

8.5 1.7

8.5 1.8

8.5 1.7

8.6 1.8

8.6 1.5

8.6 1.5

8.6 1.2

8.6 0.7

8.6 0.3

8.6 0.1

8.6 0.1

8.6 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20 -3.8

20.2 0

20.5 3.4

20.7 4.1

20.9 4

21.1 4.1

21.2 3.6

21.4 3.6

21.7 4.1

22 4.6

22.3 5.4

22.7 6.1

23.1 6.3

23.4 6.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.8 -2.3

29 -0.6

29 0.7

29.2 1.3

29.3 1.9

29.4 1.7

29.7 2.3

29.8 2.1

29.9 1.9

30 2

30.1 1.4

30.2 1.5

30.3 1.5

30.4 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 -0.6

19.4 1.6

19.4 2.9

19.5 1.5

19.5 0.8

19.5 0.5

19.5 0.3

19.4 -0.4

19.3 -0.8

19.2 -1.1

19.2 -1.1

19.2 -1

19.1 -0.8

19.1 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -5.2

5.8 -3

5.8 -0.8

5.8 0.3

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.7

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.1

5.9 0

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -3.6

6.7 -3.6

6.6 -2.4

6.5 -2.8

6.5 -3.3

6.4 -3.5

6.4 -3.4

6.3 -3.3

6.3 -3.2

6.2 -3.1

6.2 -3

6.2 -2.7

6.1 -2.4

6.1 -2.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -1

21.2 -1

21.2 -0.6

21.2 -0.6

21.2 -0.5

21.2 -0.3

21.1 -0.2

21.1 -0.2

21.1 -0.3

21.1 -0.3

21.1 -0.1

21.1 -0.1

21.1 0.1

21.1 0

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12490.1

12519.4

12553.5

12598.1

12635.1

12693.9

12757.1

12833.9

12914.2

13018

13109.1

13216.1

13323.7

13425.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

456.1 0.5

456.5 0.4

457.1 0.4

457.7 0.4

458.3 0.5

459 0.5

459.8 0.6

460.6 0.6

461.5 0.7

462.5 0.8

463.5 0.8

464.6 0.9

465.8 0.9

467.1 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

209.9 -2

210.6 -1

211.1 0.4

211.7 1

212.2 1.1

212.9 1.1

213.3 1

213.9 1.1

214.6 1.1

215.2 1.1

215.5 1

216 1

216.6 0.9

216.9 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

8.4

8.2

8

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7.1

7

6.9

6.7

1391 1357 34

1360 1316 44

1381 1283 98

1435 1282 153

1526 1320 206

1556 1314 242

1655 1385 270

1787 1503 283

1959 1659 300

2122 1813 308

2262 1943 319

2402 2078 324

2526 2194 331

2599 2269 330

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Ta l l a h a s s e e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 30.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level will be 43.8. Population growth will be at 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 12,813.55 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 369,758 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 189,722 in April 2012 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.7% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,720 unemployed people for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 30,918 • Florida State University – 6,450 • Leon County Schools – 4,444 • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130 • City of Tallahassee – 2,708 • Publix Super Markets – 2,084 • Leon County – 1,918 • Florida A&M University – 1,888 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to be 0.4 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 6.4 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.0 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 3.7 percent. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.5 percent, -1.0 percent and -2.4 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s FSU matches $4.1M grant when state can’t

• Helga Wall-Apelt made a donation of $4.1 million to the Florida State University’s art museum that was supposed to be matched by the state.

• Because the state was not able to match her donation due to the economic recession, Florida State University borrowed money from the FSU foundation to match the donation. • FSU was fearful of losing the donation and therefore decided to borrow the money. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 30, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

Ta l l a h a s s e e

City prepares to end occupation

• The Occupy Tallahassee movement was given a month-to-month agreement by the city of Tallahassee, but the last agreement expired in the beginning of September.

• The movement was very peaceful in Tallahassee with the city allowing the protestors to continue in the area. • Only a few supporters are left at the Occupy Tallahassee grounds so Tallahassee is not planning to renew the permits. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 1, 2012

State-of-the-art brain surgery center comes to Tallahassee

• Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare opened a new neurovascular facility with a new endoneurovascular lab that will give patients a noninvasive treatment option.

• Strokes are the fifth-leading cause of death in Leon County. Tallahassee hopes that this new center will help effectively bring down the number of deaths from strokes.

• Before the opening of this facility, the closest hospitals for brain aneurysms were in Jacksonville and Gainesville.

• The new center is a $2.1 million investment in the Hospital. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 19, 2012

TCC Enrollment drops by 6 percent

• Tallahassee Community College did not raise any tuition for the 2012-2013 school year, but lost almost 6 percent of its enrollment from a year ago.

• The biggest loss is in incoming freshmen seeking certification in a technology or professional program.

• Tallahassee Community College’s president believes that the unemployment rate of 7.1 percent in Leon County can be a contributing factor. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 17, 2012

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Leon High School Foundation aims to raise $1M for academics • The Leon High School Foundation is aiming to establish a $1-million endowment for Leon High School. The campaign name is “Keep Leon Strong.” The organization is thirty years old and supplies the school with grants, scholarships, and school supplies.

• The foundation will be asking parents and alumni of the high school to make donations until the goal is reached. The money will go to fund academic and extra-curricular activities that have been underfunded.

• The foundation also pumps a substantial amount of money into new technology for Leon High School. The school is one of the oldest in the nation, but the technology that the foundation supplies keeps students engaged and teachers more creative. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 18, 2012

Ta l l a h a s s e e Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)

1

1.5

2.5

3

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

13500.0

12.0%

13000.0

10.0%

12500.0

8.0%

12000.0 11500.0

6.0%

11000.0

4.0% 2.0%

2

10500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

180.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0%

175.0

4.0% 2.0%

170.0

0.0%

165.0 160.0

-2.0% -4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

Ta l l a h a s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7

11.8 5.5 6.9 5.0

12.3 3.5 6.9 5.3

11.9 -3.1 6.8 5.1

12.3 3.2 6.8 5.4

12.7 3.8 7.0 5.8

13.0 1.7 7.0 5.9

13.4 3.5 7.2 6.2

14.0 4.3 7.5 6.5

14.6 4.7 7.8 6.8

15.4 5.3 8.2 7.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.9 3.5

11.2 2.7

11.3 0.3

10.9 -3.2

11.0 1.3

11.2 1.3

11.2 0.0

11.4 2.3

11.8 2.8

12.1 3.1

12.5 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.0 31.1

33.1 31.4

33.9 31.1

32.5 29.9

33.3 30.0

34.4 30.2

34.7 30.0

35.5 30.3

36.7 30.8

37.9 31.4

39.4 32.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 2.8

38.5 3.6

39.2 1.8

39.5 0.7

40.2 1.7

41.2 2.5

42.0 2.0

43.2 2.8

44.4 2.8

45.6 2.9

47.0 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

176.1 2.5

178.0 1.1

176.4 -0.9

171.4 -2.8

169.3 -1.2

168.2 -0.6

166.2 -1.2

166.6 0.2

168.4 1.0

171.1 1.6

174.2 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -9.8

3.3 -2.0

3.3 1.6

3.4 2.1

3.4 1.6

3.5 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

171.6 2.4

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.5 -2.7

165.6 -1.1

164.9 -0.4

163.0 -1.2

163.3 0.2

165.0 1.0

167.7 1.6

170.7 1.8

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3.0

8.6 -9.7

7.0 -18.1

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.0

5.8 -5.6

5.8 -0.1

6.3 8.6

7.1 13.1

7.9 10.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 0.9

25.1 -1.2

24.0 -4.5

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.2 -0.1

21.4 -3.3

21.5 0.2

21.5 0.3

21.7 0.9

22.1 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 19.4 2.2

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.6 18.5 1.9

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.2 1.6

3.3 16.5 1.6

3.3 16.5 1.6

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.5 16.8 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 -5.2

3.6 2.8

3.6 0.5

3.4 -6.0

3.1 -9.1

3.2 2.5

3.2 2.3

3.2 0.1

3.3 1.0

3.3 2.1

3.4 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -2.9

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 2.1

7.7 1.4

7.7 1.2

7.8 1.1

7.8 0.1

7.8 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 5.2

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.5 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.6 2.7

18.9 1.2

19.5 3.5

20.3 4.0

21.5 6.0

22.6 5.0

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 3.3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4.0

19.5 1.4

19.5 0.2

19.8 1.4

20.1 1.5

20.3 0.8

20.7 2.0

21.0 1.6

21.5 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 3.3

16.9 3.6

16.7 -1.5

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16.0 -1.1

16.3 1.8

16.4 0.8

16.3 -0.6

16.2 -0.9

16.1 -0.8

8.5 5.9

9.0 5.9

9.8 8.8

9.9 2.0

9.6 -3.4

9.1 -5.8

9.1 0.8

9.2 0.2

9.2 0.9

9.3 0.2

9.3 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0.0

2.0 3.9

2.0 1.2

2.1 5.0

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -1.6

1.8 -3.1

1.8 -2.8

1.7 -2.0

1.7 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

60.9 1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1.0

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0.0

60.4 -0.8

58.6 -3.1

57.9 -1.2

57.7 -0.2

57.9 0.3

58.3 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12609.7

13071.6

12946.6

12628.2

12640.4

12561.2

12555.9

12617.1

12855.6

13225.6

13631.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

351.5 1.8

357.7 1.8

361.6 1.1

365.2 1.0

368.0 0.8

370.2 0.6

373.5 0.9

377.1 1.0

381.2 1.1

386.2 1.3

391.6 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

182.0 2.3

188.3 3.5

191.3 1.6

191.7 0.2

192.0 0.1

192.4 0.2

191.2 -0.6

191.9 0.4

194.1 1.1

195.5 0.7

196.4 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

2.7

3.1

4.7

7.3

8.3

8.3

7.3

6.6

6.1

5.8

5.5

3110.7 2547.6 563.0

2765.9 2181.4 584.0

1235.5 961.9 274.0

827.9 612.9 215.0

658.5 603.0 56.0

759.8 563.4 196.0

858.4 660.2 198.0

1224.5 864.7 360.0

1798.0 1232.6 565.0

2358.9 1628.4 730.0

2635.3 1781.2 854.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Ta l l a h a s s e e

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13 1.6 7 6

13.1 2.8 7.1 6

13.2 2.6 7.1 6.1

13.3 3.8 7.2 6.1

13.5 3.8 7.3 6.2

13.6 3.8 7.3 6.3

13.8 4.3 7.4 6.4

13.9 4.3 7.5 6.4

14.1 4.4 7.5 6.5

14.2 4.5 7.6 6.6

14.4 4.4 7.7 6.7

14.6 4.6 7.8 6.8

14.7 4.8 7.9 6.8

14.9 5 8 6.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 0

11.3 1.3

11.3 1.5

11.4 2.5

11.5 2.7

11.5 2.4

11.7 2.8

11.7 2.7

11.8 2.7

11.9 2.8

12 2.8

12.1 3

12.2 3.2

12.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.7 29.9

34.9 30.1

35.2 30.2

35.4 30.3

35.7 30.4

35.9 30.5

36.3 30.7

36.5 30.8

36.8 30.9

37.1 31

37.5 31.2

37.8 31.3

38.1 31.5

38.4 31.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.1 1.3

42.4 2.6

42.7 2.8

43 2.8

43.3 2.8

43.6 2.8

43.9 2.7

44.2 2.7

44.5 2.8

44.8 2.8

45.1 2.8

45.5 2.9

45.8 2.9

46.1 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

165.3 -1.2

165.6 -1.3

165.9 -1.7

166.4 0.7

166.8 0.9

167.3 1

167.7 1.1

168.1 1

168.5 1

169.2 1.1

169.9 1.3

170.7 1.5

171.5 1.8

172.3 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 0.3

3.3 -0.2

3.3 1.1

3.3 1.3

3.3 1.8

3.3 2

3.4 2.6

3.4 2.1

3.4 2

3.4 1.9

3.4 1.5

3.4 1.6

3.4 1.6

3.5 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

162.1 -1.2

162.3 -1.3

162.7 -1.7

163.1 0.7

163.5 0.9

164 1

164.3 1

164.7 1

165.1 1

165.8 1.1

166.5 1.3

167.2 1.5

168.1 1.8

168.9 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -5.5

5.7 -7.1

5.7 -6

5.7 -0.6

5.8 2

5.9 4.4

6.1 6.1

6.2 7.9

6.4 9.4

6.6 11

6.8 12.2

7 13.1

7.2 13.7

7.4 13.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -5

21.3 -1.1

21.4 -2.5

21.4 1.1

21.5 1.2

21.5 1.1

21.5 0.7

21.5 0.3

21.5 0.1

21.6 0.2

21.6 0.4

21.7 0.7

21.8 1.1

21.9 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 16.3 1.6

3.3 16.4 1.6

3.3 16.4 1.6

3.3 16.5 1.6

3.3 16.5 1.7

3.3 16.6 1.7

3.3 16.5 1.7

3.3 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.4 16.5 1.7

3.5 16.6 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 1.5

3.2 -0.6

3.2 -2

3.2 1.3

3.2 0.8

3.2 0.3

3.2 0.1

3.3 0.9

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.8

3.3 2.1

3.3 1.8

3.3 2

3.4 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 1.4

7.7 1.5

7.7 0

7.7 1.5

7.8 1.5

7.8 1.6

7.8 1.3

7.8 1.3

7.8 1.1

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.1

7.8 0.1

7.8 0.1

18.8 1.1

19 0.5

19.2 1.5

19.4 4.2

19.6 4.1

19.8 4.2

19.9 3.6

20.2 3.6

20.4 4.1

20.7 4.6

21 5.4

21.4 6

21.7 6.4

22 6.3

20 0.5

20.1 0.4

20.1 -1.1

20.2 1.1

20.3 1.7

20.4 1.6

20.6 2.1

20.6 2

20.7 1.8

20.8 1.9

20.9 1.5

21 1.6

21.1 1.8

21.2 1.6

16.3 2.2

16.4 4.1

16.4 0.6

16.4 1.5

16.4 0.8

16.4 0.4

16.4 0.2

16.4 -0.5

16.3 -0.9

16.3 -1.1

16.3 -1.1

16.2 -1

16.2 -0.8

16.1 -0.8

9.1 0.3

9.1 -0.8

9.1 -1.5

9.1 0.4

9.2 1

9.2 1

9.2 0.9

9.2 1

9.3 0.9

9.2 0.5

9.2 0.3

9.3 0.2

9.3 0.1

9.3 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -1.6

1.9 -3.1

1.8 -4.1

1.8 -2.4

1.8 -2.9

1.8 -3.1

1.8 -3

1.8 -2.9

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -2.7

1.7 -2.5

1.7 -2.2

1.7 -1.9

1.7 -1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.2 -2.3

58 -3.9

57.9 -3.1

57.9 -0.7

57.8 -0.6

57.8 -0.3

57.8 -0.2

57.8 -0.2

57.7 -0.3

57.7 -0.2

57.8 0.1

57.9 0.2

57.9 0.4

58 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12496.1

12522.8

12556.6

12598.2

12629.7

12683.8

12738.2

12813.3

12886.4

12984.7

13074.5

13175.7

13277.1

13375.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

373.9 0.9

374.9 1

375.7 0.9

376.6 1

377.6 1

378.6 1

379.6 1

380.6 1.1

381.8 1.1

382.9 1.2

384.2 1.2

385.5 1.3

386.9 1.3

388.2 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

190.2 -0.9

190.5 -1

191 -1.3

191.6 0.7

192.2 1.1

192.9 1.2

193.3 1.2

193.8 1.1

194.4 1.1

194.9 1.1

195.1 0.9

195.4 0.8

195.8 0.7

195.9 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.3

7.1

6.8

6.6

6.5

6.3

6.2

6.2

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

828 681 147

915 719 196

1012 755 257

1144 823 321

1302 909 393

1440 972 468

1558 1054 503

1695 1178 517

1883 1292 591

2056 1405 651

2192 1499 693

2315 1599 715

2430 1683 746

2499 1732 767

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

T a mp a – St . P e t e r s bu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summ a r i e s

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.6 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 34.5 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level will be 49.5. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 110,514.48 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,294,005 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2012. This amounts to 110,492 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application)

Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 employees • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 employees • Pasco County School District – 9,289 employees • Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 employees • University of South Florida – 8,353 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,060 employees • Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 employees • Publix Food Centers – 5,823 employees

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

Employment growth is expected to be 1.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 8.4 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Professional and Business Services, growing 5.2 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. The Other Services and Federal Government sectors will be the only sectors that will experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -0.3 and -2.3 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e w s Summ a r i e s Bayfront Health System accepting Aetna insurance again

• Aenta Insurance members will again receive innetwork rates for all Bayfront services.

• This summer, after a contract impasse, Bayfront stopped accepting Aenta Insurance in most cases. • Aenta insures 300,000 members across the Tampa Bay region. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 12, 2012

T a mp a – St . P e t e r s bu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Mayor Buckhorn vows to save Tampa’s struggling streetcars

• Mayor Buckhorn, a chair on the Tampa Port Authority Board, vowed to help turn around the struggling electric trolley system. The line links downtown, Channelside, and Ybor City.

• The mayor plans to appoint new members to the board of Tampa Streetcar Inc. to help it draft new plans for business, finance, and marketing. • Buckhorn envisions the trolleys running every few minutes for free. Currently, they only run every 20 minutes and cost $1.25 for seniors, $2.50 for regular admission, and $5.00 for an all-day pass.

• The trolleys will continue to receive a $100,000 subsidy this year. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 19, 2012

Pasco County pledges incentives to lure 75 manufacturing jobs from China

• Pasco county commissioners approved a tax-incentive packaged aimed at enticing a manufacturer of aluminum castings to bring 75 jobs manufacturing jobs to Pasco. The jobs currently are being done in China.

• Increasing the capacity of the power plant will allow Tampa Electric to phase out some of its purchase power agreements. Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 23, 2012

Ocean exploration, medical technology, defense businesses examples of innovation in Tampa Bay

• The Center for Advanced Medical Learning and Simulation, known as CAMLS, is an extension of USF that opened in March as a training facility for robotic surgery. CAMLS will be an economic boon to Tampa as it attracts doctors from across the country for multiday training programs. • Crystal Clear Technologies in St. Petersburg is one of the fastest growing private companies in the nation as a provider of IT and cybersecurity services to the U.S. military. • Odyssey Marine Exploration is finding an emerging niche mining the ocean floors for metals and phosphate.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 26, 2012

• Under Florida’s Qualified Targeted Industry program, the project qualifies to receive tax refunds and gets a bonus for creating jobs in a brownfield industrial site.

• To qualify for incentives, the company will need to commit to average wages of $40,000, 126% of the average wages in Pasco. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 11, 2012

TECO to nearly double output of Polk natural gas power station • Tampa Electric, a subsidiary of TECO Energy, is planning a $700 million expansion of its Polk County power plant to meet growing demand. If approved by the State, it is expected to be online in 2017.

• The company expects 500 jobs to be created at the peak of construction.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

T a mp a – St . P e t e r s bu r g – C l e a r w a t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

115000.0

12.0%

110000.0

10.0%

105000.0

8.0%

100000.0 95000.0

6.0%

90000.0

4.0%

85000.0

2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

80000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment

(percent change year ago)

(Thousands)

8.0%

1250.0

6.0%

1200.0

4.0% 2.0%

1150.0

0.0% -2.0%

1100.0

-4.0%

1050.0

86

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

T a mp a – St . P e t e r s bu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL October 2012 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2

102.4 4.0 54.1 48.4

104.8 2.3 53.6 51.2

100.2 -4.4 51.3 48.9

103.2 3.0 51.6 51.5

107.8 4.5 53.5 54.3

111.0 3.0 55.3 55.7

116.2 4.6 57.8 58.3

122.2 5.2 60.6 61.6

128.8 5.4 63.8 65.0

136.2 5.7 67.1 69.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

95.9 4.9

97.1 1.3

96.2 -0.9

91.9 -4.4

92.9 1.0

94.7 2.0

95.9 1.3

99.2 3.4

102.7 3.6

106.6 3.7

110.7 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.4 35.5

37.5 35.6

38.1 35.0

36.2 33.2

36.9 33.2

38.1 33.5

38.7 33.5

40.0 34.1

41.4 34.8

42.9 35.5

44.7 36.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.9 4.3

43.4 3.5

44.5 2.5

45.2 1.7

45.9 1.5

46.7 1.7

47.6 1.9

48.9 2.6

50.1 2.6

51.5 2.7

52.8 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1235.6 2.1

1234.4 -0.1

1192.8 -3.4

1122.4 -5.9

1112.0 -0.9

1132.0 1.8

1149.2 1.5

1171.3 1.9

1195.9 2.1

1226.4 2.6

1258.5 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

78.5 1.1

75.9 -3.4

71.5 -5.8

61.9 -13.4

58.2 -6.0

59.2 1.8

59.3 0.2

60.0 1.2

61.2 2.0

62.0 1.4

62.6 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1157.1 2.1

1158.5 0.1

1121.3 -3.2

1060.5 -5.4

1053.9 -0.6

1072.8 1.8

1089.9 1.6

1111.4 2.0

1134.7 2.1

1164.4 2.6

1195.9 2.7

94.4 6.3

87.8 -7.0

76.4 -13.0

60.1 -21.3

52.9 -12.1

51.8 -2.1

46.5 -10.1

47.1 1.3

51.7 9.6

59.1 14.4

65.5 10.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

236.6 0.9

235.0 -0.7

227.3 -3.3

210.4 -7.4

209.4 -0.5

212.8 1.6

213.6 0.4

217.8 2.0

220.8 1.4

224.6 1.7

229.4 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

54.0 151.9 30.7

54.3 151.7 29.0

52.9 146.7 27.8

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

45.9 141.4 25.5

45.0 143.1 25.4

46.5 145.1 26.1

47.8 145.8 27.0

49.3 146.7 27.9

50.6 149.0 28.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 -0.2

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.5 -9.0

25.7 -6.6

25.7 -0.1

26.0 0.9

26.4 1.9

26.9 1.6

27.4 1.8

27.6 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

104.2 3.2

103.2 -0.9

98.6 -4.5

93.2 -5.5

89.4 -4.1

90.7 1.5

91.9 1.4

93.0 1.2

93.8 0.8

93.9 0.1

94.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

199.0 4.5

199.0 0.0

185.6 -6.7

173.2 -6.7

178.2 2.9

187.9 5.5

198.1 5.4

208.1 5.0

217.6 4.6

230.3 5.8

242.6 5.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

161.5 2.3

168.6 4.4

173.0 2.6

174.4 0.8

177.9 2.0

180.6 1.6

185.0 2.4

187.9 1.6

192.5 2.4

197.4 2.6

203.9 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

131.9 1.7

132.1 0.1

128.2 -3.0

122.0 -4.8

121.4 -0.5

124.4 2.5

129.8 4.3

132.3 1.9

132.7 0.3

132.4 -0.2

132.3 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.4 -4.5

49.1 1.4

48.9 -0.5

45.2 -7.5

44.2 -2.3

44.3 0.3

43.2 -2.5

43.4 0.4

43.8 0.9

43.8 0.0

43.8 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.0 1.2

21.1 0.4

21.9 3.9

22.7 3.7

24.0 5.6

22.9 -4.6

22.5 -1.8

22.0 -2.3

21.4 -2.7

21.0 -1.9

20.7 -1.1

128.1 0.7

130.6 2.0

131.1 0.4

131.7 0.4

130.9 -0.6

131.7 0.6

133.3 1.2

133.4 0.1

133.7 0.2

134.6 0.6

135.8 0.9

107049.0 107663.6 103986.1

98735.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

99476.2 100604.5 102519.3 104797.0 108023.1 112244.1 116651.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2701.9 1.7

2728.9 1.0

2748.9 0.7

2767.7 0.7

2794.5 1.0

2829.2 1.2

2866.2 1.3

2907.5 1.4

2954.0 1.6

3002.0 1.6

3049.7 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1270.6 1.8

1305.3 2.7

1308.4 0.2

1292.8 -1.2

1289.1 -0.3

1308.4 1.5

1313.1 0.4

1318.6 0.4

1326.1 0.6

1337.2 0.8

1354.8 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.4

4.2

6.6

10.8

11.8

10.9

9.0

8.6

8.3

7.8

7.1

22786.9 19530.0 3257.0

11541.2 8570.7 2970.0

9275.5 5276.9 3999.0

5876.8 3975.9 1901.0

6306.2 4511.0 1795.0

6847.7 4492.1 2356.0

8255.2 6057.7 2197.0

11886.1 7770.4 4116.0

16427.6 10951.1 5476.0

20750.5 14887.1 5863.0

23583.3 17022.7 6561.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

T a mp a – St . P e t e r s bu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL October 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

111.6 2.9 55.6 56

113 4.1 56.2 56.8

114.2 4.6 56.9 57.3

115.6 4.6 57.5 58.1

116.9 4.7 58.2 58.7

118.2 4.6 58.8 59.3

120 5.1 59.5 60.5

121.4 5 60.2 61.2

122.9 5.2 60.9 62

124.5 5.4 61.7 62.9

126.4 5.3 62.5 63.8

128 5.5 63.3 64.6

129.7 5.5 64.2 65.5

131.2 5.4 65 66.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

96.2 1.3

97.2 2.7

98 3.5

98.9 3.4

99.6 3.6

100.4 3.3

101.5 3.6

102.2 3.4

103.1 3.6

104.1 3.7

105.2 3.6

106.1 3.8

107.1 3.9

107.9 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.9 33.5

39.2 33.7

39.5 33.9

39.8 34.1

40.1 34.2

40.4 34.3

40.9 34.6

41.2 34.7

41.5 34.8

41.9 35

42.3 35.2

42.7 35.4

43.1 35.6

43.4 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.8 1.3

48 2.5

48.4 2.7

48.7 2.6

49 2.6

49.3 2.6

49.6 2.6

49.9 2.5

50.3 2.6

50.6 2.6

51 2.7

51.3 2.7

51.6 2.8

52 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1150.8 1.3

1156.4 1.1

1162.4 1.7

1168.2 1.9

1174.3 2

1180.5 2.1

1186.1 2

1192 2

1198.7 2.1

1206.9 2.2

1214.5 2.4

1222.2 2.5

1230.3 2.6

1238.8 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

59.1 -0.9

59.3 -1.1

59.4 -0.8

59.9 1.5

60.2 1.9

60.5 2.1

60.9 2.5

61 2

61.3 1.8

61.6 1.8

61.8 1.5

62 1.5

62.1 1.3

62.3 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1091.8 1.5

1097.1 1.3

1103 1.9

1108.3 1.9

1114.1 2

1120 2.1

1125.3 2

1131 2

1137.4 2.1

1145.3 2.3

1152.7 2.4

1160.2 2.6

1168.2 2.7

1176.5 2.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

46.1 -12.5

46 -7.4

46.2 -2.8

46.7 0.2

47.3 2.8

48.3 5.1

49.4 7

50.8 8.8

52.3 10.5

54.2 12.2

56.2 13.7

58.2 14.6

60.1 15

62 14.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

213.7 -0.1

214.8 0.7

216.3 1.4

217.2 2.2

218.4 2.2

219.2 2

219.7 1.6

220.3 1.4

221.1 1.2

222.2 1.4

222.9 1.5

223.8 1.6

225.1 1.8

226.6 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

45.3 143 25.4

45.5 143.5 25.6

46 144.3 25.8

46.3 144.8 26

46.7 145.5 26.2

47 145.8 26.4

47.3 145.7 26.6

47.6 145.7 26.9

47.9 145.9 27.1

48.4 146.1 27.3

48.8 146 27.6

49.1 146.3 27.8

49.5 146.8 28.1

49.9 147.6 28.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26 1.7

26.1 0.5

26.4 1.9

26.5 2.4

26.5 1.9

26.4 1.3

26.5 0.5

26.9 1.4

27 2

27 2.4

27.2 2.5

27.3 1.8

27.4 1.5

27.5 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

92.1 1.6

92.4 1

92.6 1.2

92.8 1.1

93.1 1.1

93.5 1.2

93.6 1

93.8 1

93.9 0.8

93.9 0.5

93.9 0.4

93.9 0.1

93.9 0

93.9 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

200 6.1

202.2 5

204.6 6.3

206.9 4.6

209.2 4.6

211.6 4.6

213.3 4.3

215.7 4.2

218.9 4.6

222.5 5.2

225.7 5.8

228.7 6

231.8 5.9

234.8 5.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

185 2.6

186.1 1.8

186.5 1.4

187.4 1.3

188.4 1.9

189.5 1.8

191 2.4

192 2.5

192.8 2.3

194.1 2.4

195.2 2.2

196.7 2.5

198.2 2.8

199.6 2.9

130.4 4

131.1 2.2

131.7 2.6

132.2 2.2

132.4 1.6

132.8 1.3

133 1

132.8 0.5

132.6 0.1

132.5 -0.2

132.6 -0.3

132.4 -0.3

132.3 -0.2

132.4 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

42.9 -4.4

43 -2

43.2 -1.4

43.3 0.6

43.4 1.2

43.5 1.2

43.7 1.1

43.8 1.1

43.8 1

43.8 0.5

43.8 0.3

43.8 0

43.8 -0.2

43.7 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -1.8

22.3 -2.1

22.2 -1.5

22 -2.3

21.9 -2.6

21.7 -2.7

21.6 -2.8

21.4 -2.7

21.3 -2.6

21.2 -2.5

21.1 -2.3

21 -2

20.9 -1.8

20.9 -1.5

133.3 1.4

133.2 0.4

133.3 0

133.4 0.1

133.4 0.1

133.6 0.2

133.6 0.2

133.6 0.2

133.7 0.2

134 0.3

134.2 0.4

134.5 0.6

134.8 0.8

135 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

102706

103243

103860

104471

105048

105809

106540

107484

108450

109618

110631

111708

112786

113852

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2871 1.3

2881.1 1.4

2891.2 1.4

2901.8 1.4

2912.6 1.5

2924.2 1.5

2936 1.5

2947.9 1.6

2959.9 1.6

2972.1 1.6

2983.9 1.6

2996.1 1.6

3008 1.6

3019.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1314 0.1

1315 -0.4

1315.6 0.4

1317.3 0.3

1319.4 0.4

1322 0.5

1323.7 0.6

1325.1 0.6

1327 0.6

1328.7 0.5

1330.9 0.5

1334.8 0.7

1339.8 1

1343.3 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

8.9

8.8

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

8

7.9

7.7

7.6

8576 6271 2305

9237 6557 2680

10294 6828 3466

11368 7365 4003

12523 8151 4372

13359 8737 4621

14488 9383 5105

15765 10370 5395

17113 11453 5661

18344 12599 5745

19303 13588 5715

20347 14563 5785

21334 15407 5927

22018 15991 6027

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2012

I n du s t r y L o c a ti o n Q u o ti e n t

E x p l a n a ti o n a n d I n t e r p r e t a ti o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a ti o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

S e a n M . S n a ith , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r a l F l o r id a College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

F AX 4 0 7 . 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u