Florida & Metro Forecast April 2013 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2013-2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published April 2013

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About the College of Business Administration

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2013 - 2016 April 2013 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Caleb Leedy, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a H i g h l i g ht s

H i g h l i g ht s o f the A p r i l 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 1 6 F l o r i d a F o r eca s t • Florida’s housing market continues to improve, restoring wealth and triggering job creation in the construction sector. Housing finance, however, remains hamstrung. As of February, 51% of single-family and 77% of townhomes and condominiums transactions are cash sales. This is a threat to a sustained housing recovery. • Upwardly revised payroll job growth year-over-year should average just 1.8% in 2012, 1.6% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.4% in 2016. It will be the 1st quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is still the wildcard in predicting the future path for the unemployment rate in Florida. Labor force growth will average close to 1.3% during 2013-2016 and this will slow the pace of the decline in the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates have fallen from their peaks, in part due to a low labor force participation rate, and they will continue to decline through 2016. The pace of decline will moderate when labor force growth picks up; despite this headwind the unemployment rate should hit 6.0% in the second half of 2016. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market slack than headline unemployment (U-3), came in at 16.4% for 2012. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2013-2016 are Construction (6.1%); Professional and Business Services (5.6%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.0%); Education & Health Services (2.4%); and Information (1.7%). • Housing starts jumped higher in 2012. Total starts will be over 125,000 in 2014, just over 160,000 in 2015, and then hit 171,500 in 2016. This is the highest level since 2006, but still nearly 32,000 fewer starts than that in that final year of the housing boom. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 1.8% in 2012 and 2013, then accelerate to 3.3% in 2014, and 4.1% in 2015 before easing to 3.4% in 2016. Average growth will be 3.2% during 2013-2016 compared to average growth of -0.6% over the preceding four years. • Real personal income growth for 2012 slowed to 1.3%. From 2013-2016, real personal income growth will average 3.4%, and will accelerate to 4.1% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will accelerate in 2013 and beyond. By 2016, the growth rate will be at 1.7%, the fastest growth rate since 2006. As the economy continues to strengthen, job creation and Baby Boomers’ retirements will expand net migration. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 3.7% during 2013-2016, after growing 4.6% in 2012.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

like they have bounced off a well-established bottom after lingering near that bottom for the better part of two years. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by more than $13,000. This recovery in the housing market is a key part of Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s continued economic recovery, and if this momentum can be maintained, it will help boost growth in the years to come. Homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they had seen at the peak of the housing market (median prices are $107,800 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have pulled to the surface many homeowners who had previously been underwater in their mortgages. This lost wealth is going to continue to be a drag on Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumers. To get a sense of how much of a burden this lost wealth is, consider the following: median household income in Florida is $47,827. If the median household saved 5% of that income and got a 10% annual return on this savings, admittedly a challenging feat on both accounts, it would take the household 17 years to save what the housing collapse took away in home equity. Early in 2013 we continue to see encouraging signs from the housing sector in Florida, including evidence that new home building is picking up again. As the

Flor i daâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s H o u s i n g Mar k et Data recently released by Florida Realtors depicts a housing market that continues to mend. Median sales prices for single-family homes increased $17,000 in February year-over-year and stand at $150,000. The once stagnant townhome/condominium market is also showing gains as the median sales price increased $20,000 year-over-year and came in at $115,000 in February. Figure 1, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. Sales have been on an upward path from their nadir in late 2007-08. While the overall trend is upward, monthly sales have wobbled at times as the economic and demographic underpinnings of the housing market are still shifting from low gear into high. As these underpinnings of a healthy housing market continue to solidify, we can expect that the upward trend in sales will become more consistent and stable, with one caveat that we will discuss shortly. Figure 2, displays median sales prices for singlefamily existing homes. While housing prices have not followed the upward trend in sales, it appears that the bottom may have been reached for prices. Prices look

Figure 1.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes

30000

25000

Realtor Sales Total Moving Average RS

20000

15000

10000

5000

Source: Florida Realtors 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Year

Florida Summary Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes 300000

250000

Median Sales Price Dollars Moving Average MHP

200000

150000

100000

50000

Source: Florida Realtors

economy in Florida strengthens over the next several years, housing will benefit from the more robust growth as population growth and employment growth provide solid foundations for the housing market. One potential fly in the ointment, however, is housing finance. While sales and prices have continued to both move higher, a large percentage of the transactions in single-family and condo markets have been cash. In February of this year, 50.8% of single-family home sales and 77.4% of condominium sales were cash transactions. Much of this may be due to investor purchases, but the availability of mortgages, despite record low interest rates, is a contributing factor. The housing marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recovery may be threatened if credit flows do not ease in the years to come. The share of single-family homes that were cash purchases in February 2013 is nearly double what it was in 2008. The bottom line is that the housing market is finally showing signs of a recovery from deep and protracted collapse, but we still have a long road ahead for the state before we can declare that the sector has fully recovered. If housing finance does not recover, the average homebuyer cannot come up with enough money to pay cash for a house; thus, demand for housing will be constrained, and the marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recovery will weaken as a result.

Year

Ou tlook for Flori da 201 3- 201 6 Employment Revisions Reveal a (Somewhat) More Resilient Recovery

The year 2012 was a year of lost momentum for the national recovery. The U.S. economy entered the year from a platform of 4.1% growth in the 4th quarter of 2011 only to end on a low note with growth of 0.4% for the 4th quarter of 2012. The national economy has been unable to shake the burden of uncertainty driven by fiscal policy action and inaction in the U.S., uncertainties surrounding healthcare reform, as well as a global economic environment that has lost momentum; all have the potential to hinder the recovery in the U.S. The fiscal cliff was partially avoided, but the economy will be slowed by components of the cliff that were not avoided and have formed a fiscal speed bump. The 2% payroll tax reduction was allowed to expire and provided a January surprise to millions of wage earners as they saw their take home pay shrink. The sequester, the embodiment of political failure to address the fiscal woes we face as a nation, is proceeding as originally legislated. The economic impact will become more apparent in the 2nd quarter of 2013. We may have avoided the recession that the full fiscal cliff would have entailed, but we will feel the fiscal speed bumpâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s effects Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

as the year plays out. In Florida, 2012 looked like another year of subpar growth, but it was still much better than 2010 and 2011. Economic growth in Florida for 2012 was 1.8%, and payroll employment growth for 2012, revised higher by the annual benchmarking process, expanded to 1.8% (in our December forecast we estimated payroll job growth for 2012 of 0.9 %.) Florida’s economic growth will accelerate in 2014 and 2015, thereby allowing the labor market to build further momentum in its own recovery, with job growth in the construction sector accelerating to double digits in 2015 and 2016. The only sector expected to lose jobs consistently through 2016 is the federal government. Fiscal austerity has come home to roost as the sequester will continue to erode federal government spending. As belt-tightening at the federal level continues through 2016, job growth will continue to be negative. The economic recovery in Florida is feeding into retail sales and more discretionary spending by consumers in general, thereby easing the budget crunches that have plagued state government in Tallahassee and providing revenue sorely needed for strategic investments (education and infrastructure) in Florida’s economy. As we have discussed in previous Florida forecasts, the housing market’s recovery will feed into, and be fed by, the labor market’s recovery. This will eventually ease budget woes at the local government as well, and by 2014 employment in state and local government will begin to slowly expand. Florida’s economy is poised to break away from the lackluster U.S. economic recovery, provided the fiscal shocks or the Euro crisis does not sabotage the state’s improving growth. As we stated in the December Florida & Metro Forecast, 2013 is shaping up to be the crossover year when Florida goes from lagging the national recovery to outperforming it.

Gross State P r o d uct Real Gross State Product (RGSP) in Florida, now known as State GDP, the state-level analogue to Real GDP at the national level, started to grow again in 2010 after two years of sharp contraction. State GDP growth was modest in that first year of recovery (0.9%), and became even more so in 2011 with full year growth coming in at just 0.5%. To put that growth in perspective, in 2000-2007 Real GSP grew at an average rate of 3.9%. The peak year for growth was 2005 as the economy grew 6.2%. During 2008-2009 the economy contracted at an average rate of -4.5%. In 2009 the state’s economy shrank by -5.4%, an astounding 11.6 point swing in the growth from peak to trough. By 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

comparison, the national economy saw a peak to trough swing in real GDP growth of 6.5 points. Economic growth in Florida has been underwhelming thus far in the recovery. 2012 and 2013 will be an improvement over 2010 and 2011, but they hardly qualify as robust growth. We expect the economy expanded at 1.8% in 2012 and will expand at 1.8% in 2013. In 2013, rising confidence, an improving housing market and a growing labor market recovery will be a springboard for the economy in the years that follow. These factors should finally help generate faster growth in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.3%, 4.1%, and 3.4% respectively. In most cases, the burden of lost housing wealth Florida’s consumers have to overcome is substantially higher than consumer’s burdens in other states around the nation. While housing prices have shown signs of upward movement, the damage to Floridian’s balance sheets has been profound (see the savings example in the housing section above). Realistically, it will take many years, if not a decade or more, to reclaim that lost home equity wealth. The residual effects of the housing market’s historic fall will be with Floridians for years to come and will serve to subdue consumer spending just as the housing market’s historic climb stoked consumption in the years before its fall. However, as 2013 gives way to 2014, Florida’s economy will begin to grow more rapidly, labor markets will improve, and housing prices will benefit from the improving fundamentals. Economic and demographic growth will provide a solid foundation upon which a housing sector can once again grow in a healthier manner. Once these key drivers are back in place for Florida, the state’s economic outlook will be rosy once again. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $948 billion in 2016. The state will cross the trilliondollar threshold for nominal GSP in 2017. Florida’s economy, as measured by GSP, will have grown tenfold in size from 1980 to 2017. Favorable demographics, specifically faster rates of domestic (the baby boomers are not getting any younger) and international migration (Central and South America), will continue to fuel the state’s economic growth. In addition to population growth, international trade, tourism, healthcare, and ongoing efforts to invest in and diversify the state’s economic base in life sciences will all help broaden the economic base of the state and provide additional sources of economic growth, helping to push the economy forward for decades (get that infrastructure ready!).

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

P ers ona l I n co m e , Retai l Sale s , a n d Auto Sal e s Personal income growth in Florida is expected to lose some momentum in 2013 as the sequester, payroll tax increase, and uncertainty all weigh on income growth this year. Looking forward, momentum will build in 2014 and persist through the end of 2016. Year-overyear growth lost a bit of speed in 2012, and will again this year, but personal income growth will surge in 2014 with growth of 5.7%, and will continue to expand in 2015 when it is expected to grow 5.5%, and then will maintain this robust pace in 2016 when growth will be 5.6%. Personal income growth in Florida lagged behind the nation as a whole in 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the year we have been calling the crossover year, the positions reverse, and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.5% higher than the national rate through 2016. Personal income growth during 2013-2016 will average 4.8%; during the preceding four years (2009-2012) that average growth rate was just 1.4%. Personal income will reach nearly $940 billion in 2016, a year that will see personal income grow by $50 billion. Real disposable income growth, weighed down by the Great Recession and the slow pace of recovery, increased by 1.0% in 2011. In 2012, disposable income growth averaged 1.1%, and in 2013 growth will be just 0.8%, suppressed by higher payroll taxes, the sequester, and persistent uncertainty. Average growth during 2014-2016 will be a more robust 4.0%. Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will be a drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon and beyond. Addressing the nation’s deficit and debt cannot be achieved through spending cuts alone and will ultimately necessitate higher tax burdens for more than just the highest tax bracket. Financial markets have made a strong recovery from the nadir of the financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since climbed back above the 14,500 level. The bond market has also performed very strongly, and as a result, the overall value of financial assets held by U.S. households has now exceeded their pre-crisis highs. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth held by households, which is still $5 trillion lower than in 2005. The housing market in Florida, unlike financial markets, is just in the early phases of recovery, though housing prices do appear to have bounced off the bottom. The trillions of dollars in home equity lost nationwide could take many years, if not a decade

or more, to recover. In Florida, this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the horizon of this forecast and for many years beyond. Florida’s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. If national healthcare reform pushes more companies to rely on part-time workers, the underemployment problem in the state stands a good chance of worsening over the next couple of years. Generally, as the labor market shifts into a phase with private sector job creation accelerating, it will boost consumer confidence and spending. Retail sales in Florida grew at 4.6% in 2012, part of which is due to higher gasoline expenditures because of rising prices, but it is also the result of the ongoing venting of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and visitors. As the labor market recovery gains momentum, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the economy. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 3.7% during 2013-2016. In 2013, growth will be the slowest of these years at 2.9%. Although retail sales growth will not soar as they did during the height of the housing and economic boom, the ongoing economic improvement will boost sales tax revenues and continue to lessen budget constraints in Tallahassee. Austerity, however, will remain a necessary element in budget planning at both the state and local level. As the economy has recovered, consumer’s replacement need for automobiles and light trucks has been driving automobile sales. This replacement demand is reflected in national sales data as confidence in the stability of the economy, and despite the tepid nature of the recovery, has fueled demand. Vehicle registration growth will be healthy during 2013-2016, averaging around 8.0%. In 2016, Florida registrations will reach 1.37 million, representing an increase of over 677,000 registrations from the 2009 low point, but still below the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom of 1.45 million in 2005.

E m ploym ent After three years of losses, payroll job growth in Florida turned positive in 2011. In 2012, job growth accelerated, but did not fully blossom. After a better start to the year, 2012 job growth has decelerated in the second half. The overall economic environment nationally has slowed significantly, and in this larger environment, Florida’s employment growth has struggled to gain momentum. Full year job growth for Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

2011 averaged 1.1%. In 2012, job growth was revised higher, and is expected to come in at 1.8%. In 2013, the labor market will continue its weak expansion with job growth of 1.6%. Payroll job growth will reach 2.5% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015 before settling at 2.4% in 2016. The Construction sector, after five straight years of job losses, actually added jobs in 2012, finally joining in the labor market’s recovery. The sector lost jobs in a dramatic manner after peaking during the whitehot housing boom at 619,900 jobs. The sector shed nearly half of those jobs by 2011. Job growth will build momentum over the next couple of years before hitting double digits in 2015 and 2016. Construction job growth is expected to surge to 3.5% in 2013, 9.4% in 2014, 15.6% in 2015, and 11.5% in 2016. The gaudy pace employment growth will at first glance appear large, but these growth rates are calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. In 2016, average employment in this sector should be back at levels previously seen in 2001. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s 2nd fastest growing sector through 2016, behind Construction. However, growth rates in the Professional and Business Services sector are not from such a depleted base. Job growth in this sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 5.6% during 20132016. Job gains here in the first years of Florida’s recovery have averaged 2.4%, but will continue to accelerate. After three years of more modest growth, job growth will accelerate and reach 6.9% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015, and ease slightly to 4.6% in 2016. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment in the first few months of 2014. The Information sector continued to lose jobs in 2012. Ongoing structural changes in the industry continue to roil this sector, as technology and the delivery of information evolve, becoming more widely dispersed. Although the traditional print news industry is still under pressure, other sources of growth within this sector, such as software development and data processing, will eventually help compensate for the loss of jobs in old-style industries. Job growth should return to the Information sector year-over-year in 2014, just the second year of job growth in this sector in thirteen prior years, including eight straight years of net job losses leading up to 2014. After 0.5% growth in 2014, job growth will jump to 1.4% in 2015 and will hit 2.3% in 2016.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

The one sector that has consistently created jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to expand through the end of 2016 is the Education and Health Services sector. During 2013-2016, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.4%. School budgets will likely be a drag on employment growth in the education side of the sector as schools still face revenue constraints because of depressed housing prices and the impact it has had upon the property tax based revenue that funds school districts. The housing sector has shown some signs of recovery and as discussed above prices have started to recover, but there are lags before any recovery in housing values actually filter down to stronger school budgets. The gains have been modest in housing prices, but as that sector recovers, budget positions in the state’s school systems will benefit. It is still uncertain as to precisely how healthcare reform will ultimately affect healthcare in Florida. Many states, including Florida, are struggling to establish healthcare exchanges that are a necessary part of implementing federal healthcare reform. The resultant federal and state efforts continue to put Medicare and Medicaid expenditures in the spotlight. The focus will necessarily be on gaining efficiency and controlling the cost of delivering these services. It is not clear that the process will be ultimately viable and there are likely to be both anticipated and unanticipated diffuse problems. However, with expanded coverage and the aging of our population, demand for health services in Florida will remain strong in the near-tointermediate term. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at 1.1% in 2011, and in 2012 growth was 1.4%. Global competition and efficiency gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade, and as a result, the sector is as productive as it has been for years. This improved competitiveness, despite a weakening of expansions in emerging economies and an ongoing European recession, will help drive job growth as exports should nonetheless continue to rise, albeit at a diminished pace. After stumbling out of the gate this year, we are expecting to see job growth of 0.6% in manufacturing for the full year in 2013, followed by a slightly stronger year of job growth in 2014, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.5%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to gain jobs in 2015 and 2016, when job growth is expected to average 1.7%.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

The budget-crippled Government sector is set upon by revenue crunches that run from the state level down to counties and small cities. Job losses will persist in the State and Local Government sector through 2013 when growth will be -0.4%. From that point, growth will turn weakly positive and average 0.8% during 2014-2016. As Florida’s economy continues to expand, the need for state and local government services will grow as well, and employment growth will be part of the solution to the expanding demands of a growing economy. No such turnaround will materialize for Federal Government employment growth. As we stand at the door of sequester spending cuts and are awaiting a longterm solution to our federal deficit and debt problems, cuts in federal spending will be necessitated. Job losses are expected through the end of 2016 and beyond as the U.S. begins to come to grips with these massive budget deficits and a ballooning national debt. Federal Government employment in Florida will contract at an average rate of 1.6% during 2013-2016.

Une mp loym e n t The unemployment rate in Florida remains elevated, and stands at 7.7% as of February 2013. It has come down substantially from its peak. At first glance, this appears to be good news for the labor market in the state. However, a deeper look at the data reveals some flaws in this image. Part of the problem is that these declines in the unemployment rate have been in a large part driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate that in February 2013 stood at 60.4%. This is down from 60.7% a year ago, and below the national participation rate that stood at 63.3% in March 2013. The March national participation rate was the lowest since 1979. Lower U-3 unemployment rates can be deceiving if you don’t look beyond this headline number. Florida’s economy as measured by Real Gross State Product has grown continuously since the 1st quarter of 2010, but only at an average growth rate of 1.0% through 2012. Robust economic growth can bring down the unemployment rate quickly, and labor force shrinkage notwithstanding, we have not yet experienced the type of growth that can do more than reduce the unemployment rate gradually. The February unemployment rate in Florida stood at 7.7% in March of 2013, a 3.7 point decline from peak level of unemployment in 2010. Robust growth will not arrive in Florida until 2014. The labor market will need this faster growth to continue to drive meaningful declines in the rate

of unemployment that to date have been driven by a shrinking labor force. Going forward, the faster growth will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging proposition. As payroll job growth finally gains momentum in 2013 it will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search during this lengthy labor market cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not materialized, will make reducing the unemployment rate a more difficult and longdrawn-out process. When discouraged workers reenter the job hunt there will be upward pressure on the unemployment rate, the reverse of what we have seen for much of the recovery. If the unemployment rate is rising because of this reentry, it will be, ironically, a good sign and an indication that the labor market is healing. The unemployment rate is expected to continue a gradual, drawn-out decline that will push it down to 6.1% by the end of 2016. This problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers—those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months, and those who have given up searching for a job entirely—remains significant. When adding these workers to the toplevel unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and it averaged 16.4% for 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This paints a much grimmer picture of the state of the labor market in Florida than does the current headline unemployment rate of 7.7%. Underemployment nationally and in the state will bear watching in the months and years to come, as there have been indications that companies may rely more upon part-time workers to fill their labor needs, to avoid the costs of providing healthcare or the penalties for not doing so for full-time employees. Unintended consequences of healthcare reform will become more prevalent as the law is rolled out over the next few years. One thing we know is that changing the rules of the game changes the behavior of the players in the game as well. Healthcare reform in this sense is clearly a “gamechanger.”

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

721.1

740.7

687.3

Personal Income and GSP 722.4 755.4 778.7 798.0

843.2

889.7

939.7

4.5 5.7

2.7 4.6

-7.2 -4.8

5.1 3.8

4.6 5.1

3.1 3.5

2.5 2.4

5.7 5.2

5.5 5.1

5.6 4.8

683.5

679.9

630.6

650.2

663.8

672.5

682.3

711.1

739.2

768.5

1.7 2.9

-0.5 1.3

-7.2 -4.8

3.2 1.9

2.1 2.6

1.3 1.7

1.5 1.3

4.2 3.7

4.0 3.5

4.0 3.2 695.1

609.0

617.2

581.5

600.2

605.8

612.5

617.2

642.0

667.7

Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

1.7

1.3

-5.8

3.3

1.0

1.1

0.8

4.0

4.1

U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

2.4

-2.8

1.8

1.3

1.5

760.9 4.0 714.6 1.0

748.1 -1.7 689.4 -3.5

726.2 -2.9 652.0 -5.4

736.1 1.4 657.7 0.9

754.3 2.5 661.1 0.5

782.7 3.8 672.7 1.8

0.6 809.2 3.4 684.7 1.8

3.6 851.9 5.3 707.3 3.3

3.6 901.8 5.9 736.1 4.1

3.4 948.3 5.2 761.4 3.4

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -2.3 -5.6 -0.1 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 0.1 -1.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 6.3 10.4 11.3 10.3 8.6 7.6 7.0 6.3

1.6 1.3 6.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.0 3.7 4.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.8

7.2

6.4

6.0

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

-0.7

1.2

1.7

1.4

1.8

2.0

1.7

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

0.2 1.6 -8.7 -4.2 -1.5

-3.5 -7.8 -17.2 -7.0 -6.2

-6.3 -11.5 -23.1 -12.7 -10.0

-0.8 -0.6 -11.3 -4.5 -3.6

1.1 4.0 -4.3 1.1 0.8

1.8 -0.1 1.8 1.4 1.3

1.6 0.4 3.5 0.6 0.7

2.5 -0.2 9.4 1.5 -0.3

2.8 -0.8 15.6 2.1 -0.2

2.4 -1.6 11.5 1.2 -0.5

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

-5.4 0.1 1.5 0.4 -1.0

-7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -4.6

-14.1 -6.6 -7.9 -6.6 -7.3

-4.9 -2.0 -2.8 0.2 -1.9

1.3 3.7 -0.3 2.3 1.8

1.5 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3

0.6 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.2

2.4 3.4 2.3 0.8 1.1

3.3 3.5 2.7 0.9 0.7

2.1 3.8 2.7 1.0 -0.2

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-6.4 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-8.2 1.2 -4.5 -8.5

1.3 1.9 0.5 -4.6

3.0 1.9 2.8 -1.0

3.0 1.8 4.2 -1.8

2.1 2.2 2.9 -0.5

6.9 2.2 1.4 0.5

6.8 2.0 1.1 1.4

4.6 2.9 0.0 2.3

Federal Gov't.

0.2

1.3

2.3

7.2

-5.4

-0.9

-1.6

-1.8

-1.9

-1.1

State & Local Gov't.

2.4

0.2

-1.5

-1.2

-1.1

-1.5

-0.2

0.3

0.7

1.1

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

117.7 -34.6

84.2 -29.1

107.7 43.9

169.1 71.8

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

101.4

61.6

33.6

75.2 26.2

40.9 20.7

3.4

4.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch Year ago)

Population and Migration 18,385.1 18,540.8 18,682.3 18,879.5 19,111.5 19,348.6 19,608.9 19,899.3 20,216.0 20,555.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

198.7 20.9

207.6 4.4

235.9 13.6

258.2 9.5

277.4 7.5

293.4 5.8

38.2

Housing 41.4 61.1

87.3

125.2

160.3

171.5

26.8 6.9

31.8 6.4

31.9 9.5

44.0 17.1

61.0 26.3

86.4 38.9

115.2 45.1

122.7 48.8

-0.2

1.2

Consumer Prices 3.0 2.0

1.4

1.8

1.7

1.8

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

782.7 1.8 1.9

793.2 2.5 2.4

802.9 3.3 3.0

813.1 2.2 2.2

828.7 5.9 5.3

837.8 5.6 5.1

848.0 5.6 5.1

858.4 5.6 5.2

873.0 5.4 5.0

884.0 5.5 5.1

895.1 5.6 5.1

906.6 5.6 5.1

921.8 5.6 5.0

933.4 5.6 4.8

671.8

679.3

685.9

692.3

702.7

707.7

713.8

720.2

729.6

736.1

742.5

748.7

758.7

764.9

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

0.8 0.8 608.7 0.3 0.2

1.4 1.3 614.6 0.8 0.5

2.4 2.0 619.9 1.5 1.2

1.3 1.2 625.8 0.5 0.3

4.6 4.0 634.0 4.2 3.6

4.2 3.7 639.0 4.0 3.6

4.1 3.6 644.6 4.0 3.6

4.0 3.6 650.3 3.9 3.6

3.8 3.5 658.5 3.9 3.5

4.0 3.6 664.5 4.0 3.6

4.0 3.6 670.9 4.1 3.6

4.0 3.4 676.9 4.1 3.6

4.0 3.4 685.6 4.1 3.6

3.9 3.2 691.5 4.1 3.4

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

796.4 3.2 679.0 1.6

803.5 3.3 681.3 1.6

813.3 3.1 686.5 1.7

823.6 3.9 692.2 2.3

834.3 4.8 697.6 2.7

846.2 5.3 703.9 3.3

857.6 5.4 710.3 3.5

869.4 5.6 717.2 3.6

882.8 5.8 724.8 3.9

895.7 5.9 732.6 4.1

908.4 5.9 740.2 4.2

920.2 5.8 746.8 4.1

931.3 5.5 752.5 3.8

942.1 5.2 757.9 3.5

2.3 1.0 7.8 7.9

2.3 1.0 7.7 7.9

2.1 1.4 6.4 6.5

2.1 1.4 6.3 6.3

2.1 1.4 6.2 6.2

1.8 1.3 6.1 6.1

1.6 1.3 6.1 6.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.2 7.5 7.7

1.9 1.3 7.5 7.7

2.1 1.4 7.2 7.4

2.1 1.4 7.1 7.2

2.1 1.4 7.0 7.1

2.0 1.4 6.9 7.0

2.1 1.4 6.5 6.6

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida

1.4 1.6

1.3 1.4

1.4 1.6

1.4 1.9

1.7 2.2

1.9 2.5

1.9 2.6

1.9 2.7

2.0 2.8

2.1 2.9

2.1 3.0

1.9 2.7

1.7 2.4

Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

1.2 2.3 0.5 1.0 0.3

-0.2 3.5 0.7 1.1 0.5

0.0 4.1 0.8 0.7 0.8

0.6 4.2 0.4 -0.1 0.7

-0.1 6.3 0.8 -0.3 1.4

0.0 8.2 1.2 -0.5 2.1

0.0 10.3 1.7 -0.4 2.7

-0.5 12.6 2.3 -0.2 3.6

-0.6 14.5 2.3 -0.2 3.5

-0.6 15.6 2.2 -0.2 3.5

-0.9 16.4 2.0 -0.3 3.1

-1.1 16.0 1.9 -0.3 3.0

-1.3 14.7 1.5 -0.5 2.5

-1.7 12.6 1.3 -0.5 2.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services

3.1 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.9

3.2 2.2 1.7 0.0 0.9

3.9 2.8 1.6 -0.3 1.6

3.7 2.7 0.9 0.4 3.9

3.3 2.3 1.1 0.7 5.9

3.6 2.6 0.9 1.3 7.1

3.4 2.2 0.6 1.4 7.6

3.1 2.1 0.6 1.2 7.0

3.2 2.3 0.5 1.2 6.9

3.3 2.6 0.7 0.8 6.9

3.6 2.8 1.2 0.6 6.8

3.8 2.9 1.5 0.2 6.7

3.9 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.8

3.8 2.7 1.1 -0.4 4.8

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

2.3 3.6 -2.3 -1.1

2.0 3.1 -1.0 -2.4

2.3 2.6 -0.1 -1.1

2.1 2.3 1.5 -1.9

2.2 1.8 2.1 -1.6

2.4 1.5 0.4 -0.7

2.0 1.3 -0.4 -2.5

2.0 1.0 -0.3 -2.5

1.7 1.3 0.4 -2.3

1.8 1.2 1.5 -2.0

2.1 1.1 1.9 -1.8

2.3 0.8 2.0 -1.5

2.6 0.2 2.1 -1.3

2.8 -0.1 2.3 -1.2

State & Local Gov't.

-1.0

-0.4

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Population and Migration 19,506.0 19,573.5 19,642.6 19,713.5 19,786.1 19,860.4 19,936.5 20,014.3 20,093.5 20,174.2 20,256.3 20,339.9 20,424.9 20,510.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

Net Migration (thous)

56.9

58.3

59.7

61.1

62.5

63.9

65.2

66.6

67.7

68.8

69.9

71.0

72.1

72.6

(%Ch Year ago)

12.5

14.1

13.9

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.1

8.4

7.7

7.1

6.5

6.4

5.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

76.9 55.4

81.6 58.4

90.3 62.4

100.3 67.7

109.7 73.7

120.9 82.9

130.9 90.8

139.4 97.9

149.3 105.6

158.5 114.0

165.9 120.4

167.4 120.8

169.2 121.5

170.7 122.3

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

21.5

23.2

27.9

32.6

36.0

37.9

40.1

41.5

43.7

44.5

45.5

46.6

47.7

48.4

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.6

Consumer Prices 1.8 1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.8

Housing

(%Ch Year ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,468.6 7,496.4 7,536.1 7,582.5 7,636.3 7,684.4 7,727.8 7,776.2 7,838.7 7,898.2 7,955.3 8,009.4 8,053.1 8,091.4

Manufacturing

318.4

319.0

319.3

319.0

321.0

322.8

324.6

326.3

328.4

330.0

331.0

332.5

333.4

334.2

Durable Goods

210.0

210.3

210.9

212.9

214.7

216.6

218.4

220.4

222.1

223.4

224.9

226.0

226.9

Wood Products

9.0

9.2

9.5

9.8

10.2

10.7

11.3

11.9

12.5

13.0

13.4

13.7

13.8

13.9

Computer & Electronics

42.8

42.7

42.4

42.5

42.4

42.5

42.6

42.7

42.8

42.9

43.1

Transportation Equipment

35.6

35.3

35.4

35.6

35.9

36.1

36.3

36.6

36.8

37.0

37.2

37.3

37.4

108.4

108.6

108.4

108.1

108.0

107.9

107.7

107.6

107.5

107.3

29.6

29.7

29.8

29.9

29.8

29.7

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,150.2 7,177.4 7,216.8 7,263.5 7,315.2 7,361.7 7,403.2 7,449.9 7,510.3 7,568.3 7,624.2 7,677.0 7,719.6 7,757.2 5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

Construction

346.6

351.0

355.7

361.1

368.6

379.7

392.3

406.6

422.1

439.0

456.5

471.8

484.1

494.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

246.1

247.2

249.3

252.1

254.1

256.2

257.8

259.9

262.2

264.6

267.1

269.9

272.4

274.8

Wholesale Trade

332.3

335.0

338.1

340.1

342.1

344.2

346.1

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

355.0

356.1

Retail Trade

991.8

994.8

996.1

997.8 1,002.8 1,003.3 1,002.6 1,003.6 1,007.6 1,009.9 1,014.2 1,018.6 1,018.5 1,020.5

Information

131.2

132.5

133.3

133.9

Prof. & Bus. Services

133.9

133.0

132.7

133.5

134.4

134.9

135.3

136.1

137.3

138.1

1,071.9 1,079.4 1,092.6 1,114.0 1,135.3 1,156.0 1,175.6 1,192.5 1,213.9 1,235.5 1,255.7 1,272.5 1,284.1 1,294.3

Admin. & Support

534.3

539.3

547.9

562.8

580.4

596.9

613.8

627.8

646.3

664.2

681.3

695.3

707.4

718.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

453.3

455.8

460.3

466.6

470.2

474.2

476.9

479.8

482.6

486.3

489.3

492.0

491.5

491.0

84.2

84.3

84.4

84.5

84.8

84.9

85.0

85.1

85.2

85.3

Financial Activities

498.1

498.0

498.8

500.6

501.7

504.3

505.8

506.7

507.6

508.5

508.7

507.9

507.5

506.4

Real Estate & Rent

162.6

162.8

163.2

163.9

164.7

166.1

167.3

168.5

169.4

170.1

171.0

171.6

172.0

Fin. & Insurance

335.5

335.2

335.6

336.7

337.0

338.2

338.5

338.1

338.3

338.4

337.7

336.3

335.6

334.4

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,126.4 1,130.4 1,138.3 1,142.9 1,151.7 1,157.9 1,161.1 1,166.0 1,171.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,192.5 1,202.1 1,211.8

Education Services

142.5

142.4

142.2

Health Services

983.9

988.1

996.1 1,000.8 1,009.8 1,016.6 1,020.4 1,025.6 1,031.1 1,039.1 1,046.1 1,053.6 1,063.3 1,073.5

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

142.1

141.9

141.3

140.8

140.4

140.0

139.6

139.3

138.9

138.7

138.3

1,019.1 1,024.6 1,027.7 1,033.2 1,037.3 1,039.5 1,040.7 1,043.9 1,050.6 1,052.2 1,051.7 1,052.6 1,052.9 1,051.4 316.3

317.3

318.2

319.1

319.6

320.1

320.6

320.4

320.6

320.7

321.1

321.6

322.4

323.1

1,073.6 1,072.5 1,074.2 1,074.1 1,073.6 1,073.6 1,074.2 1,075.1 1,075.9 1,077.5 1,079.6 1,081.9 1,084.6 1,086.8

Federal Gov't.

131.5

129.5

131.1

130.2

129.4

128.6

127.8

127.0

126.4

125.9

125.5

125.1

124.8

124.5

State & Local Gov't

942.1

943.0

943.1

943.9

944.2

945.1

946.4

948.1

949.5

951.6

954.1

956.8

959.8

962.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,010.8

7,727.2

7,243.2

7,186.1

7266.7

7,401.1

7,520.9

7,706.2

7,925.4

8,114.5

Manufacturing

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

312.5

317.0

318.9

323.7

330.5

334.5

Durable Goods

269.3

249.4

214.4

203.5

206.2

209.3

210.5

215.7

222.7

227.3

Wood Products

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.4

11.0

13.1

13.9

Computer & Electronics

49.2

48.0

44.7

43.0

42.6

42.7

42.5

42.8

43.2

Transportation Equipment

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.3

35.4

36.0

36.9

37.4

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

106.3

107.7

108.4

108.0

107.8

107.3

31.4

29.6

27.9

27.5

28.7

29.3

29.7

29.8

29.9

29.7

7,611.7

7,356.1

6,919.3

6,877.1

6,954.1

7,084.1

7,202.0

7,382.5

7,594.9

7,780.0

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

Construction

622.8

515.9

396.6

350.7

335.6

341.6

353.6

386.8

447.4

498.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

253.5

248.2

231.8

227.1

235.4

240.4

248.7

257.0

266.0

276.0

Wholesale Trade

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

356.6

1,028.6

999.3

933.6

935.4

956.8

980.6

995.1

1,003.1

1,012.6

1,022.4

162.7

157.2

143.8

137.1

135.7

133.3

132.7

133.3

135.2

138.3

1,155.9

1,082.5

993.2

1,006.0

1,036.0

1,067.3

1,089.5

1,164.9

1,244.4

1,301.9

Admin. & Support

614.7

543.4

481.9

494.5

516.7

535.1

546.1

604.7

671.8

725.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

460.2

456.3

431.4

432.4

437.9

448.4

459.0

475.3

487.5

490.7

81.0

82.9

79.9

79.0

81.4

83.8

84.4

84.9

85.1

85.3

Financial Activities

551.1

526.0

487.3

478.0

486.6

497.7

498.9

504.6

508.2

507.3

Real Estate & Rent

178.1

169.8

154.9

150.3

153.1

160.4

163.1

166.7

170.5

172.6

Fin. & Insurance

373.0

356.1

332.4

327.7

333.5

337.3

335.8

337.9

337.7

334.7

1,016.5

1,038.0

1,050.7

1,070.6

1,091.1

1,110.3

1,134.5

1,159.2

1,181.9

1,215.9

Education Services

118.8

122.7

127.7

134.6

136.7

140.8

142.3

141.1

139.5

138.1

Health Services

897.7

915.3

923.1

936.0

954.4

969.4

992.2

1,018.1

1,042.5

1,077.8

Leisure & Hospitality

983.9

970.5

926.8

931.4

957.3

997.4

1,026.1

1,040.3

1,051.8

1,051.4

Other Services

345.6

335.4

312.6

309.4

308.5

314.1

317.8

320.2

321.0

323.6

1,123.2

1,126.8

1,115.0

1,112.8

1,093.5

1,078.0

1,073.6

1,074.1

1,078.7

1,087.9

Federal Gov't.

128.0

129.7

132.7

142.3

134.0

132.7

130.6

128.2

125.7

124.4

State & Local Gov't

995.2

997.1

982.3

970.5

959.5

945.3

943.0

946.0

953.0

963.6

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

782.7

793.2

802.9

813.1

828.7

837.8

848.0

858.4

873.0

884.0

895.1

906.6

921.8

933.4

Wages & Salaries

348.3

351.0

355.9

360.5

365.6

370.4

374.9

379.7

385.4

390.9

396.3

401.5

406.5

411.2

Other Labor Income

81.6

82.5

83.3

84.5

86.0

87.1

88.2

89.4

90.8

92.2

93.7

95.2

96.8

98.1

Nonfarm

48.9

49.5

50.4

51.3

52.3

53.5

54.4

55.4

56.5

57.6

58.5

59.3

60.1

60.9

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

Farm Property Income

195.3

200.3

202.7

205.4

207.9

209.3

212.3

215.3

218.2

220.8

223.6

226.8

230.8

234.6

Transfer Payments

160.0

161.7

163.3

164.9

171.8

173.3

174.7

176.0

180.9

182.2

183.4

185.0

190.8

192.5

54.8

55.2

56.0

56.8

58.2

59.2

59.9

60.7

62.2

63.1

63.9

64.7

66.7

67.4

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

671.8

679.3

685.9

692.3

702.7

707.7

713.8

720.2

729.6

736.1

742.5

748.7

758.7

764.9

Wages & Salaries

298.9

300.6

304.0

306.9

310.0

312.9

315.5

318.5

322.1

325.5

328.7

331.6

334.6

337.0

Other Labor Income

70.1

70.6

71.2

71.9

72.9

73.6

74.3

75.0

75.9

76.7

77.7

78.6

79.7

80.4

Nonfarm

41.9

42.4

43.0

43.6

44.3

45.2

45.8

46.5

47.2

48.0

48.5

49.0

49.4

49.9

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

Farm Property Income

167.6

171.5

173.1

174.9

176.3

176.8

178.7

180.6

182.4

183.9

185.5

187.3

190.0

192.2

Transfer Payments

137.3

138.4

139.5

140.4

145.7

146.4

147.1

147.6

151.2

151.7

152.1

152.8

157.1

157.8

47.1

47.3

47.9

48.3

49.4

50.0

50.4

50.9

52.0

52.6

53.0

53.4

54.9

55.2

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1100.07 1121.14 1149.42 1170.81 1216.13 1248.77 1275.91 1300.28 1317.81 1334.47 1344.78 1358.15 1368.45 1370.79 Retail Sales (Billions $)

281.4

283.6

284.9

287.1

289.8

292.8

295.7

298.3

301.3

304.3

307.5

311.3

314.1

317.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

241.5

242.9

243.4

244.5

245.7

247.3

248.9

250.3

251.8

253.3

255.1

257.1

258.5

260.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

721.1

740.7

687.3

722.4

755.4

778.7

798.0

843.2

889.7

939.7

Wages & Salaries

344.7

339.8

321.6

324.2

334.0

343.3

353.9

372.6

393.5

413.8

Other Labor Income

73.1

74.4

73.8

75.1

77.8

79.9

83.0

87.7

93.0

98.8

Nonfarm

43.7

41.0

38.5

44.8

46.3

47.9

50.0

53.9

58.0

61.1

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

Property Income

196.5

211.2

161.8

176.4

187.3

194.5

200.9

211.2

222.4

236.7

Transfer Payments

111.2

122.5

138.2

149.0

153.3

157.6

162.5

173.9

182.9

193.6

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.0

46.3

47.6

55.7

59.5

63.5

67.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

683.5

679.9

630.6

650.2

663.8

672.5

682.3

711.1

739.2

768.5

Wages & Salaries

326.7

311.9

295.0

291.9

293.5

296.5

302.6

314.2

327.0

338.3

Other Labor Income

69.3

68.3

67.7

67.6

68.4

69.0

71.0

73.9

77.2

80.8

Nonfarm

41.4

37.6

35.3

40.3

40.7

41.3

42.8

45.5

48.2

50.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

Property Income

186.3

193.9

148.5

158.8

164.6

168.0

171.8

178.1

184.8

193.6

Transfer Payments

105.4

112.4

126.8

134.2

134.7

136.1

138.9

146.7

152.0

158.3

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.0

40.7

41.1

47.6

50.2

52.7

55.4

1242.2

952.0

697.1

849.2

899.0

1012.4

1135.4

1260.3

1338.8

1374.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

262.3

255.6

230.1

246.2

264.3

276.4

284.3

294.1

306.1

319.6

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

248.7

234.6

211.1

221.6

232.3

238.7

243.1

248.0

254.3

261.3

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 60%

(% change year ago)

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Population (Thousands)

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

Florida Minimum Wage Increases by 12 Cents • Indexed to cost-of-living adjustments, the Florida minimum wage will increase to $7.79 per hour, an increase of 12 cents per hour. • Of the 7.4 million workers in the state of Florida, only about 210,000 will be affected by the increase in the minimum wage. • Since young people under the age of 24 make up 50 percent of minimum wage employees, the wage increase will likely make the greatest impact for them. Source: Pensacola News Journal December 31, 2012 Florida Tourism Sets Records in 2012 • In 2012, the state of Florida drew 89.3 million visitors, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous year. • Additionally, the number of jobs directly related to travel also hit a record 1.03 million people. • Tampa Bay helped leisure and tourism grow faster than any other industry in Florida with the Republican National Convention in August. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 18, 2013 Florida School Enrollment Gets Big Boost • With almost 30,000 more students, the State of Florida’s public education system increased 1.1 percent. This is the largest increase since 2005-06. • The increase in enrollment is expected to continue in 2013. Over 20,000 students are expected to be added to the public education system in 2013. • However, funding for public schools is at its secondlowest level in eight years. With an increase in enrollment, legislators would have to find $130 million just to keep up with the growth. Source: The Palm Beach Post, January 6, 2013 Florida Senate Deals Final Blow to Medicaid Expansion • Instead of expanding Medicaid, Florida legislators decided to come up with a plan that relies on private insurance to help the state’s poor. • Florida has until the start of 2014 to create a plan because that is the same time the federal health exchanges are instituted. • The alternative Florida plan would still access $51 billion of federal Medicaid dollars over a ten-year period. The federal government would still have to approve the Florida plan. Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 12, 2013

Governor Rick Scott Floats New Tax Break for Manufactures • Governor Rick Scott is planning to cut more taxes for manufacturers as a way to create more jobs and boost the state’s manufacturing industry. • Governor Scott wants to provide a sales tax exemption for manufacturers that purchase industrial equipment and machinery. • Already, manufactures have a tax exemption on machinery they purchase if the machinery helps improve production by 5 percent annually. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 9, 2013 Citrus Sees Increase in Orange Juice Sales • The Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow showed U.S. orange juice sales rose 5.5 percent in early January. • This was the first monthly increase in orange juice sales in more than two years. • Citrus growers could see higher farm prices for their oranges because 95 percent of oranges go into making orange juice. Source: The Ledger, February 8, 2013 Florida Population Booming Again • Emerging strongly from the recession, Florida is set to pass the state of New York as the third most populous state in the union. • Florida grew by 235,000 people in 2012 and is expected to add over 250,000 people in 2013. New York, however, is expected to add only 100,000 new residents in 2013. • With an expected population growth of over 2 percent, the state of Florida is expected to grow at about twice the national average. Source: The Herald-Tribune, March 14, 2013 Florida Banks Improve, But Lag Behind the Rest of the Country • At the highest level since 2007, nearly 70 percent of banks nationwide are recommended by the Coral Gables financial rating agency Bauer Financial. • However, less than 39 percent of banks in Florida are recommended. This is still an improvement from the 25 percent that were recommended last year. • Florida still had 19 zero-star banks, but this is an improvement over the 25 zero-star banks last quarter. Source: Tampa Bay Times, March 15, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Met r o s

Apr il 2 013

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.4 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will be $30,800. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at $39,900. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 2.6 percent. Population growth will be 1.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,705.48 million dollars.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 • Halifax Medical Center – 3,957 • Volusia County Government – 3,280 • Publix – 2,486 • State of Florida – 2,361 • Daytona State College – 1,797 • U.S. Government – 1,422 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.0 percent each year. Unemployment will average 7.3 percent, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 9.7 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 4.8 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector and Information sector follow with an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent each. The Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors are the only sectors expected to experience a decline at -2.3 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Bike Week Brings Mixed Results

• Hotels near Bike Week hotspots like Daytona Beach’s Main Street and Bruce Rossmeyer’s Destination Daytona in Ormond Beach are reporting that business was up over last year’s Bike Week. • However, those in other parts of the county, such as some parts of Volusia and Flagler counties, are saying that revenues were flat or even down compared to last year. • The annual 10-day event kicked off March 8 and ended on March 17. The final weekend with its motorcycle parade and other festivities generally draws the event’s largest crowds.

• More bikers might be taking day trips to the Daytona Beach rally and consequently not needing Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

hotel rooms. It’s also possible that bike rallies, highways and attractions in nearby communities like St. Augustine are pulling bikers away from Daytona Beach for at least a few days during Bike Week. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 18, 2013

Fuego del Mar latest eatery to call Flagler County home • Nicholas Kimball, owner of Burrito Works Restaurant, is renovating the former Mother’s restaurant at 608 State Road A1A in Flagler Beach to open a new restaurant, Fuego del Mar.

• This large establishment plans to hire 100 full and part-time workers. But the project has hit a snag with the need to install an elevator onsite to provide full access to the expansive upper deck Kimball installed on the beachfront facility, pushing back the planned Feb. 28 opening date. • Kimball said another challenge has been finding qualified people to work at the restaurant, a task that was harder than he expected.

• Flagler Beach Chamber of Commerce Chairman Mark Gerling said Kimball’s project and the recent opening of the Funky Pelican and the Flagler Beachfront Winery encourage him.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 16, 2013

Parent’s frustration leads to launch of thriving business

• Cazella’s Toddler Tech USA, which moved from Oregon to Port Orange in 2009, has grown into a thriving company that employs 10 workers and manufactures Dapper Snappers, which are sold in more than a dozen countries.

• After deciding to make and sell her product back in 2008, Michelle Cazella spent nearly the next two years researching the market and materials, a decision that experts say contributes to the success of any small business.

• Much of her research time was spent hunting American manufacturers and suppliers who would meet her standards. • Most of the marketing is done online, and Cazella uses innovative ways to reach potential customers.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

• She said she often picks out popular “mom” bloggers and sends them free samples. They write about the product, and the orders roll in. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 17, 2013

Deltona job fair draws hundreds of applicants

• When the recession forced thousands of workers into unemployment, the city responded last year by partnering with the Center for Business Excellence — the workforce development board for Volusia and Flagler counties — to host a job fair. • The job market has improved since then, but Deltona’s unemployment rate has remained higher than the county, state and nation so city officials held a second job fair March 15. • The turnout this time around was much lower, estimated at about 500 people, as compared to the 1,200 who attended last year’s job fair.

• Some job-seekers who also attended in 2012 were heartened to see fewer lines and more of a chance to schmooze with prospective employers. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 15, 2013

Port Orange receives high credit rating

• Despite recent water-billing woes, the city has received the second highest credit rating from a prestigious national company.

• Fitch Ratings of New York City reaffirmed last year’s AA- credit rating — a “stable outlook.” Port Orange approved a $15.7 million general obligation bond in 2006 for a new police station and two new fire stations. • Like other rating agencies such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, Fitch reviews a city’s financial health and determines its ability to meet financial commitments. Credit ratings by those companies help investors determine the likelihood of being repaid according to the contract.

• According to Fitch, an AA rating denotes “expectations of a very low default risk” and a “very strong capacity for repayment.” In addition, the credit-rating company predicted a downturn in the economy would not make a city like Port Orange, given that ranking, “significantly vulnerable.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 14, 2013

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

12500.0 12000.0

8.0%

11500.0

6.0%

11000.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

10500.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0 9500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Deltona Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.1 5.4 6.1 10.0

16.6 2.8 6.0 10.6

15.3 -7.5 5.6 9.7

16.0 4.3 5.7 10.3

16.5 3.4 5.7 10.8

17.0 2.9 5.9 11.2

17.4 2.3 6.1 11.3

18.3 5.1 6.4 11.9

19.2 4.9 6.7 12.5

20.2 5.4 7.0 13.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 2.7

15.2 -0.4

14.1 -7.6

14.4 2.3

14.5 1.0

14.7 1.1

14.9 1.3

15.4 3.7

16.0 3.4

16.6 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

32.4 30.7

33.4 30.6

31.0 28.4

32.4 29.2

33.4 29.4

34.2 29.6

34.8 29.7

36.2 30.5

37.6 31.2

38.9 31.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.5 3.8

36.0 1.5

35.7 -0.7

36.7 2.7

36.9 0.5

37.5 1.7

38.2 1.9

39.3 2.8

40.4 2.8

41.6 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

171.7 -0.8

166.1 -3.3

156.5 -5.8

153.7 -1.8

154.3 0.4

155.5 0.8

158.0 1.7

161.1 1.9

164.6 2.2

168.0 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -14.0

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.5

8.3 2.5

8.4 0.7

8.6 1.7

8.7 2.2

8.9 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

161.4 -0.7

157.0 -2.7

148.7 -5.3

146.2 -1.7

146.1 -0.1

147.1 0.7

149.6 1.7

152.6 2.0

155.8 2.2

159.1 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 -10.3

11.4 -20.1

8.9 -22.0

7.9 -11.6

7.4 -6.3

7.6 2.4

7.9 4.2

8.6 9.1

9.9 14.6

10.9 10.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.3

30.0 -0.5

30.0 0.1

30.5 1.6

31.3 2.6

31.4 0.5

31.7 0.8

32.2 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.9 2.4

4.9 23.1 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.4 1.8

4.7 23.9 1.9

4.7 24.3 2.1

4.8 24.5 2.1

4.9 24.6 2.2

5.1 24.8 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2.0 -10.9

2.0 -1.6

2.0 -1.0

2.0 1.9

2.0 0.4

2.1 1.8

2.1 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.0 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.3 2.2

7.6 3.8

7.7 1.3

7.8 1.5

7.9 0.6

7.8 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 -7.7

15.9 -3.5

16.0 0.2

15.4 -3.3

15.7 1.7

16.1 2.6

16.5 2.2

17.5 6.1

18.5 6.2

19.4 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.2

31.6 0.4

32.1 1.6

32.2 0.3

32.8 1.8

33.5 2.0

33.9 1.3

34.6 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.0 4.5

22.9 -0.2

21.6 -5.7

21.5 -0.4

22.2 2.9

22.7 2.6

23.6 3.6

23.7 0.5

23.8 0.3

23.6 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1.0

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.7 -5.9

7.6 -1.1

7.6 0.9

7.7 0.9

7.7 0.3

7.8 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0.0

1.4 2.3

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.9

1.1 -11.3

1.1 -3.6

1.1 -2.7

1.0 -2.5

1.0 -0.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 1.4

22.4 -3.9

21.3 -5.0

20.9 -1.7

20.5 -2.0

19.7 -3.9

19.2 -2.6

19.3 0.4

19.4 0.6

19.6 1.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

498.4 0.7

497.0 -0.3

494.6 -0.5

493.5 -0.2

494.7 0.2

497.3 0.5

500.9 0.7

505.7 1.0

511.6 1.2

519.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

253.3 2.5

254.7 0.5

252.0 -1.1

251.2 -0.3

254.1 1.2

250.5 -1.4

246.1 -1.8

243.0 -1.3

241.3 -0.7

241.1 -0.1

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.0

6.5

10.6

11.5

10.8

9.0

8.0

7.5

6.9

6.7

2184.2 1594.7 590.0

1398.7 1036.8 362.0

662.1 602.2 60.0

720.2 659.3 61.0

1031.8 504.6 527.0

750.2 659.1 91.0

1235.1 1122.7 112.0

2826.7 2294.2 533.0

4224.1 3311.9 912.0

4489.9 3490.5 999.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.1 2 6 11.1

17.3 2.3 6 11.3

17.5 3.1 6.1 11.4

17.7 1.7 6.2 11.5

18 5.5 6.3 11.8

18.2 5.1 6.3 11.9

18.4 5 6.4 12

18.6 4.9 6.5 12.1

18.9 4.7 6.6 12.3

19.1 4.9 6.6 12.4

19.3 5 6.7 12.6

19.6 5.2 6.8 12.7

19.9 5.2 6.9 13

20.1 5.3 7 13.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 0.9

14.8 1.2

15 2.1

15.1 0.8

15.3 4.2

15.4 3.7

15.5 3.5

15.6 3.4

15.8 3.2

15.9 3.4

16 3.5

16.1 3.6

16.3 3.6

16.5 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.3 29.4

34.6 29.7

34.9 29.8

35.2 30

35.8 30.4

36 30.4

36.3 30.6

36.6 30.7

37.1 31

37.4 31.1

37.7 31.3

38 31.4

38.5 31.7

38.8 31.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.8 1

38 1.9

38.3 2.4

38.6 2.4

38.9 2.8

39.2 2.9

39.4 2.8

39.7 2.8

40 2.8

40.2 2.8

40.5 2.8

40.8 2.8

41.1 2.9

41.4 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

156.9 1.4

157.7 1.4

158.4 1.9

159.2 2

160 2

160.8 2

161.4 1.9

162.2 1.9

163.1 1.9

164.1 2.1

165.1 2.3

166.1 2.4

166.9 2.3

167.6 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 1.6

8.4 1.3

8.4 0.2

8.4 -0.2

8.5 1.1

8.5 1.4

8.6 1.9

8.6 2.5

8.7 2.3

8.7 2.4

8.8 2.2

8.8 1.7

8.9 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.5 1.3

149.3 1.4

149.9 2

150.8 2.1

151.5 2

152.2 2

152.9 1.9

153.6 1.9

154.4 1.9

155.4 2

156.4 2.3

157.3 2.4

158 2.4

158.7 2.2

7.7 3.8

7.8 2.7

7.9 4.9

8 5.5

8.2 6.2

8.5 7.9

8.7 9.9

9 12.2

9.3 13.7

9.7 14.6

10.1 15.3

10.4 14.9

10.6 13.7

10.8 11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 2.1

31.3 2.4

31.3 3.5

31.4 2.3

31.4 1

31.4 0.5

31.4 0.4

31.5 0.3

31.6 0.6

31.8 1.1

32 1.4

32 1.8

32.2 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 24.2 2.1

4.7 24.3 2.1

4.8 24.4 2.1

4.8 24.5 2.1

4.8 24.4 2.1

4.9 24.5 2.1

4.9 24.6 2.2

5 24.7 2.2

5.1 24.8 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.7

2 2

2 1.6

2 2.3

2 2.1

2 0.3

2 -0.5

2 -0.2

2.1 0.5

2.1 1.7

2.1 2.4

2.1 2.6

2.1 2.8

2.1 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 1.2

7.7 0.7

7.7 1.6

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.2

7.8 1.7

7.8 1.8

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.2

7.9 0.8

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.2

7.8 -0.1

7.8 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 1.5

16.3 1.2

16.5 2.3

16.8 3.8

17.1 5.7

17.4 6.4

17.6 6.7

17.8 5.8

18.1 5.6

18.4 5.9

18.7 6.3

19 6.8

19.2 6.1

19.3 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.5 0.9

32.7 2.2

32.9 1.8

33 2.3

33.3 2.3

33.4 2.2

33.5 1.7

33.6 1.7

33.7 1.2

33.8 1.2

33.9 1.3

34.1 1.3

34.3 1.7

34.5 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 5.6

23.5 4

23.6 3.1

23.7 1.8

23.7 1

23.7 0.6

23.7 0.4

23.7 0.2

23.8 0.4

23.7 0.3

23.7 0

23.7 -0.5

23.6 -0.8

7.6 0.9

7.6 0.7

7.7 1

7.7 1.3

7.7 1.1

7.7 0.9

7.7 0.4

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.2

7.8 0.4

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -6.7

1.1 -4.5

1.1 0.2

1.1 -3.3

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.5

1.1 -4

1.1 -3.6

1 -2.9

1 -2.6

1 -2.3

1 -2

1 -0.6

1 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 -4.2

19.2 -4

19.2 -1.9

19.2 -0.3

19.3 0.5

19.3 0.4

19.4 0.5

19.4 0.6

19.5 0.7

19.5 0.9

19.6 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

499.2 0.6

500.3 0.7

501.5 0.8

502.6 0.8

503.9 0.9

505.1 1

506.3 1

507.5 1

508.9 1

510.5 1.1

512.4 1.2

514.5 1.4

516.6 1.5

518.7 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

247.6 -2

246.6 -1

245.6 -2.4

244.8 -1.6

244 -1.4

243.3 -1.3

242.7 -1.2

242.1 -1.1

241.7 -1

241.4 -0.8

241.2 -0.6

241 -0.5

240.9 -0.3

240.9 -0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

804 767 37

1033 992 41

1357 1225 132

1747 1507 240

2134 1791 344

2639 2175 464

3068 2469 598

3466 2741 724

3905 3050 855

4186 3286 901

4394 3458 936

4412 3455 957

4444 3465 979

4469 3477 992

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth will see a 4.3 percent growth, the third lowest of the MSAs studied. Real per capita income level is expected to average $33,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, the second highest of the 12 forecasted MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $45,800. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.6 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 9,317.92 million dollars. Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.3 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 5.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 9.5 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent. Information, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will all experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2, -0.2, and -1.8 respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 employees • Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Gainesville Regional Airport pursuing direct flights to NYC

• Gainesville Regional Airport (GNV) officials are asking community members for input regarding the potential for a nonstop flight from Gainesville to New York City. This input will help build a case to present to legacy airline route planners. • GNV is pursuing a direct flight to NYC as Gainesville expands technology, biotech, and other creative-service industries that require frequent travel to the northeast.

Gai n e s v i l l e

• According to consultant Boyd Group International, GNV passenger analytics show an average of 70.8 daily passengers to New York or Newark. Source: Business Report of North Central Florida, February 7, 2013

Plan Board supports most of Butler Plaza revisions

• The Gainesville Plan Board approved most of the changes Butler Enterprises suggested to a project that more than doubles the size of Butler Plaza northwest of the intersection of Archer Road and Southwest 34th Street. • Butler Enterprises said some of the requirements the city commission approved in the project over a year ago were unworkable.

• The Board resolved such issues as the entranceway to the town center and parking. Other issues, such as how many buildings will have windows, will be resolved before the plan is sent to the city commission. Source: Business Report of North Central Florida, February 19, 2013

UF connects to Internet2, expanding power 10-fold

• On January 30, UF activated a 100 Gbps connection to the ultra-high-speed Internet2 Innovation Platform. This computer network is only offered in three other places in the United States, and UF was chosen to be one of the pilot sites. • This move is expected to unleash scientific discovery and collaboration on a scale not possible at 10 Gbps, the current research standard. The platform is designed to be the quickest and easiest way to move research data between laboratories, even internationally.

Sears partners with UF, Gainesville to launch new internship program • Sears Holding Corp. has chosen Gainesville as the base for its new internship program, the Technology Undergraduate Educational Partnership, partnering with the Council for Economic Outreach and the University of Florida.

• Twenty-five slots are available for the first class. Applications will be open for students in computer engineering, industrial engineering, digital arts, statistics, and mathematics.

• Students will be placed on project teams in San Jose, Texas, or Chicago, Illinois, for the summer. When they return in the fall, they will continue correspondence through a planned Sears office in Innovation Square. Source: Business Report of North Central Florida, March 17, 2013

CordaRoy’s owner swaps over half of business for “Shark Tank” investment

• Local businessman Byron Young gave retail maven Lori Greiner 58 percent stake in his bed-in-a-beanbag company, CordaRoy’s, in exchange for a $200,000 investment on ABC’s “Shark Tank.”

• Last year, CordaRoy’s had $1.4 million in sales, but it should be at $5 million. Young netted $100,000 in profit. • On the evening 7.45 million people watched “Shark Tank,” CordaRoy’s website crashed after going from 23 visitors to 25,000. Within 24 hours, the website was back up and taking orders by the hundreds. Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 11, 2013

• The new computing power represents an investment of $2.4 million, with $1.9 million in National Science Foundation grants and $500,000 in institutional funding.

Source: Business Report of North Central Florida, February 7, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

10000.0

8.0%

8500.0

6.0%

8000.0 7500.0

4.0%

7000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

6500.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment

(Millions 2000 $)

9500.0 9000.0

136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 5.2 5.2 4.0

8.7 -5.8 5.2 3.5

9.1 4.8 5.2 3.9

9.5 3.6 5.3 4.2

9.8 3.1 5.5 4.3

10.1 3.3 5.8 4.3

10.5 4.5 6.0 4.5

11.0 4.4 6.3 4.7

11.5 4.8 6.5 5.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 2.8

8.5 1.9

8.0 -5.8

8.2 2.8

8.3 1.2

8.4 1.3

8.6 2.3

8.9 3.1

9.1 2.9

9.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.8 32.1

35.3 32.4

33.0 30.3

34.5 31.0

35.5 31.2

36.3 31.4

37.3 31.9

38.7 32.7

40.2 33.4

41.9 34.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.3

40.3 3.1

40.9 1.4

41.4 1.4

42.1 1.7

43.9 4.1

45.2 2.9

46.5 2.9

47.9 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.7 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

127.0 0.0

128.9 1.5

130.7 1.4

132.3 1.2

134.0 1.3

135.8 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 2.0

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16.0

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -0.9

4.4 0.4

4.5 1.2

4.5 2.0

4.7 2.5

4.7 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

128.4 1.4

127.9 -0.3

123.0 -3.9

122.5 -0.4

122.6 0.1

124.5 1.5

126.3 1.4

127.7 1.1

129.3 1.3

131.0 1.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9.0

3.9 -8.7

4.2 9.3

4.5 5.9

4.8 7.6

5.5 13.9

6.1 10.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.0 4.0

19.4 -2.9

18.0 -7.1

17.7 -1.8

17.9 1.0

18.1 1.2

18.2 0.7

18.2 0.1

18.3 0.3

18.5 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.5 14.9 2.6

2.5 14.2 2.7

2.3 13.3 2.4

2.2 13.2 2.3

2.2 13.4 2.3

2.3 13.4 2.4

2.4 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.4 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 2.5

1.9 -7.0

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -0.5

1.5 -1.1

1.4 -4.5

1.4 -0.1

1.4 1.2

1.5 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6.0 -3.1

6.0 -0.4

6.1 2.0

6.4 5.3

6.5 0.5

6.6 1.4

6.6 0.5

6.6 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.8

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.8 3.7

11.4 5.6

11.9 5.0

12.7 6.0

13.4 6.0

14.0 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -0.6

22.3 2.9

22.4 0.2

22.6 0.8

22.8 1.2

23.5 3.0

24.1 2.7

24.5 1.5

24.7 0.8

25.1 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 4.0

14.7 3.6

13.6 -7.1

13.2 -3.0

13.3 0.7

13.5 1.4

14.0 3.5

14.1 0.5

14.1 0.2

14.0 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 3.9

4.5 -0.6

4.2 -6.5

4.1 -2.8

4.1 0.7

4.0 -2.0

4.1 1.9

4.1 0.5

4.1 -0.2

4.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 3.1

4.0 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.9

4.4 -6.1

4.4 -0.9

4.3 -1.3

4.2 -2.1

4.1 -2.3

4.1 -1.7

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.4 -1.0

37.2 -0.6

37.1 -0.2

37.1 -0.1

37.1 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.5 0.6

264.5 0.4

266.6 0.8

268.5 0.7

270.4 0.7

272.0 0.6

273.4 0.5

275.1 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

137.0 3.7

139.2 1.6

137.5 -1.3

138.2 0.6

138.3 0.0

136.8 -1.1

133.9 -2.1

132.3 -1.2

131.0 -1.0

130.0 -0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2.9

4.3

7.1

8.0

7.8

6.9

5.9

5.4

4.9

4.8

1450.1 766.8 683.0

1057.4 517.0 540.0

510.8 363.7 147.0

512.4 406.9 105.0

448.1 299.5 149.0

574.1 377.0 197.0

842.0 597.6 244.0

1124.7 751.4 373.0

1413.5 913.8 500.0

1492.3 951.1 541.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.9 3.5 5.7 4.2

10 3.8 5.7 4.3

10.1 4.4 5.8 4.3

10.2 1.8 5.8 4.4

10.4 4.7 5.9 4.5

10.5 4.6 6 4.5

10.6 4.5 6 4.5

10.7 4.4 6.1 4.6

10.8 4.1 6.2 4.7

10.9 4.4 6.2 4.7

11.1 4.5 6.3 4.8

11.2 4.7 6.4 4.8

11.3 4.7 6.4 4.9

11.5 4.8 6.5 5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 2.4

8.6 2.7

8.6 3.4

8.7 0.9

8.8 3.4

8.9 3.1

8.9 2.9

9 2.8

9.1 2.6

9.1 2.9

9.2 3

9.2 3.1

9.3 3.1

9.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.8 31.6

37.1 31.8

37.4 31.9

37.7 32.1

38.3 32.5

38.6 32.6

38.8 32.7

39.2 32.9

39.7 33.2

40 33.3

40.4 33.5

40.8 33.7

41.3 34

41.7 34.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.5 4.1

43.7 4.3

44 4.7

44.3 3.5

44.7 2.6

45 3.1

45.3 3

45.6 3

46 2.9

46.3 2.9

46.6 2.9

47 2.9

47.3 3

47.7 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.2 1.7

130.5 1.8

130.9 1.8

131.3 0.4

131.8 1.2

132.1 1.2

132.4 1.2

132.7 1.1

133.2 1.1

133.7 1.2

134.3 1.4

134.7 1.5

135.2 1.5

135.5 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 1.8

4.5 3.5

4.5 0.8

4.5 -1.1

4.5 1.3

4.5 1.6

4.6 2.1

4.6 2.8

4.6 2.5

4.6 2.6

4.7 2.4

4.7 1.9

4.7 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 1.7

126 1.8

126.4 1.8

126.9 0.4

127.3 1.2

127.6 1.2

127.8 1.1

128.2 1

128.6 1.1

129.1 1.2

129.6 1.4

130.1 1.5

130.5 1.5

130.8 1.3

4.4 9.1

4.4 7.9

4.5 5

4.5 2

4.6 4.8

4.7 6.5

4.9 8.5

5 10.7

5.2 12.4

5.4 13.6

5.6 14.7

5.7 14.6

5.9 13.6

6 11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 0.9

18.2 0.8

18.2 1.5

18.3 -0.5

18.2 0.5

18.2 0

18.2 -0.2

18.2 0.1

18.3 0.6

18.4 0.9

18.4 1.2

18.5 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.4 2.4

2.4 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.4 2.5

2.5 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.3 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -6.9

1.4 -6.4

1.4 -3.7

1.4 -1

1.4 1.3

1.4 0

1.4 -0.7

1.4 -0.8

1.4 -0.3

1.4 1

1.4 1.8

1.4 2.2

1.4 2.4

1.5 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.9

6.5 0.8

6.5 -0.4

6.5 1

6.6 1.5

6.6 1.7

6.6 1.3

6.6 1

6.6 0.7

6.6 0.3

6.6 0

6.6 -0.2

6.6 -0.7

11.8 4.8

11.9 6

12 5.1

12.2 4.3

12.4 5.5

12.6 6.2

12.7 6.5

12.9 5.6

13.1 5.5

13.3 5.7

13.5 6.1

13.7 6.6

13.9 5.9

13.9 4.8

24 3.2

24.1 3.6

24.2 3

24.3 1

24.4 1.9

24.5 1.8

24.5 1.2

24.6 1.2

24.6 0.7

24.7 0.8

24.7 0.9

24.8 0.9

24.9 1.2

25 1.4

13.9 4.7

14 4.3

14.1 0.7

14.1 1.1

14.1 0.6

14.1 0.3

14.1 0

14.1 0.3

14.1 0.2

14.1 0

14 -0.6

14 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 1.4

4.1 3

4.1 2.4

4.1 1

4.1 0.9

4.1 0.6

4.1 0.4

4.1 -0.1

4.1 -0.3

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.3

4.1 0

4.1 0.1

4.1 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 1.2

4.3 -2.3

4.3 -1

4.3 -3.2

4.3 -2

4.3 -1

4.2 -2.6

4.2 -2.7

4.2 -2.4

4.1 -2.2

4.1 -1.9

4.1 -1.8

37.2 -0.9

37.2 -1

37.2 -0.2

37.2 -0.4

37.1 -0.2

37.1 -0.1

37 -0.1

37.1 -0.1

37.1 0.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

269.8 0.7

270.2 0.7

270.7 0.7

271.1 0.7

271.5 0.7

271.8 0.6

272.2 0.5

272.5 0.5

272.8 0.5

273.2 0.5

273.5 0.5

274 0.5

274.4 0.6

274.9 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

134.7 -2.3

134.2 -2.4

133.7 -2.2

133.3 -1.5

132.8 -1.3

132.4 -1.3

132.1 -1.2

131.7 -1.2

131.4 -1.1

131.1 -1

130.9 -0.9

130.6 -0.9

130.3 -0.9

130.1 -0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.3

5.2

4.9

4.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

759 553 206

800 580 219

873 611 262

936 645 290

1001 679 322

1080 737 344

1175 780 395

1242 810 432

1311 842 469

1402 907 494

1469 956 513

1473 950 523

1479 948 531

1486 949 537

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

J ac k s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.9 percent. The real per capita income level is the third highest of the 12 forecasted MSAs at $37,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent, the second lowest of the studied areas, while average annual wage level is expected to be $50,500. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 60,240.83 million dollars.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of 2012. This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 Naval Station Mayport – 12,670 City of Jacksonville – 8,820 Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) – 5,000 Mayo Clinic – 4,970 United Parcel Service – 4,100

Employment growth is expected to be 2.5 percent annually. Unemployment will average 6.6 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 8.7 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 6.0 percent, and then the Education and Health Services sector with a growth rate of 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s UnitedHealth to hire 300 for new call center

• UnitedHealth Group has leased and plans to remodel 7159 Corklan Drive in Jacksonville, an existing 47,000-square-foot building. The project is expected to cost $1.5 million.

• The renovation will house a call center and is expected to bring 150 jobs to Jacksonville at its initial late spring opening. That number is expected to increase to 300 by the end of this year.

• Call center positions will be entry-level and have salaries ranging from $27,000 to $30,000 per year. The company plans to hire locally and will not pay relocation costs to applicants. Source: Florida Times-Union, January 10, 2013

Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Hoegh Autoliners will move its U.S. headquarters to Jacksonville • Hoegh Autoliners, an international vehicle transportation services provider, will move its U.S. headquarters from Jericho, N.Y., to Jacksonville.

• The company currently has 20 employees at its Blount Island terminal Jacksonville branch. The number is expected to increase to 35 with the move and will include many top-level executive positions. • Jacksonville is the busiest U.S. port for the Norway-based company. The move is expected to finish by the end of June. Source: Florida Times-Union, February 6, 2013

Jaxport board votes to pursue deeper dredging requiring local funds • The Jacksonville Port Authority Board of Directors voted on a plan to dredge the St. Johns River shipping channel to 47 feet, an increase from its current 40-foot depth.

• The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recommended that the river be dredged to 45 feet, but board members believe that a 47-foot depth would be necessary to service large cargo ships from Asia and keep Jacksonville’s port competitive against other East Coast ports.

• The federal government will pay 75 percent of the costs to dredge up to the 45-foot level. Any additional dredging over this level could be paid for through state and local funds, or private funding. • The plan is tentative as the Army Corps finishes its review process. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 25, 2013

Jacksonville JetPort wins $49M defense contract to supply aircraft fuel • JetPort LLC, a fixed-base operator at Cecil Airport that services corporate, military, and general aviation, won a contract to supply aircraft fuel services to the Navy, the Army,

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

the Air Force, the Marine Corps, and federal civilian agencies.

• The $48.8 million contract was awarded by the Defense Logistics Agency Energy at Fort Belvoir, Va., and will last through March 31, 2017. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 11, 2013

Waste Pro to build CNG station in Jacksonville

• Garbage hauler Waste Pro USA Inc. plans to open a compressed natural gas fueling station in Jacksonville in order to operate a compressed natural gas vehicle fleet. • The company is one of four waste haulers in Jacksonville, and services about 70,000 households. It will be the first to use compressed natural gas.

• The switch to compressed natural gas will yield cheaper operating costs than using diesel, and quieter vehicles. This will be the second fueling station for the company, who already operates one in Ft. Pierce. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 12, 2013

J ac k s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 65000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

45000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0

1.4

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0

8.0%

660.0

1.2

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.9 2.9 28.8 25.2

50.7 -5.9 27.3 23.4

52.9 4.3 27.9 25.1

55.4 4.6 28.6 26.8

57.4 3.6 29.6 27.8

58.9 2.6 30.4 28.4

62.4 6.0 32.1 30.3

65.9 5.6 33.9 32.0

69.5 5.5 35.6 34.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.7 1.5

49.5 -0.4

46.6 -6.0

47.7 2.4

48.7 2.1

49.5 1.8

50.3 1.6

52.6 4.5

54.8 4.1

56.8 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.1 38.0

40.7 37.4

38.0 34.8

39.2 35.3

40.6 35.7

41.6 35.9

42.1 36.0

44.1 37.2

45.9 38.1

47.6 38.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 3.0

45.0 1.2

45.3 0.7

46.5 2.5

47.2 1.6

48.1 2.0

48.4 0.6

49.8 2.9

51.2 2.8

52.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

631.8 1.4

619.3 -2.0

584.4 -5.6

580.8 -0.6

587.0 1.1

595.9 1.5

610.7 2.5

627.2 2.7

644.3 2.7

658.0 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 -2.2

32.4 -1.9

29.2 -9.9

27.4 -6.0

27.4 -0.1

27.9 1.9

27.9 0.1

28.4 1.5

29.0 2.2

29.4 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

598.8 1.6

586.9 -2.0

555.1 -5.4

553.3 -0.3

559.6 1.1

567.9 1.5

582.8 2.6

598.9 2.8

615.3 2.7

628.7 2.2

49.8 -1.7

43.6 -12.5

33.4 -23.4

29.1 -12.7

27.5 -5.6

27.5 0.0

28.8 4.8

31.1 7.8

35.2 13.2

38.4 9.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

139.2 1.7

136.3 -2.1

126.9 -6.9

124.4 -2.0

124.1 -0.2

125.8 1.4

128.2 1.9

130.4 1.7

132.7 1.8

135.3 2.0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.4 32.3

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.8 30.0

24.8 69.0 30.3

24.8 70.4 30.6

25.4 71.0 31.5

26.0 71.6 32.6

26.7 72.1 33.8

27.4 72.8 34.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -5.6

9.2 -4.0

9.1 -1.8

9.1 0.3

9.2 1.1

9.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

60.2 0.5

59.7 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.7 0.0

58.0 4.1

60.1 3.7

61.7 2.5

62.8 1.9

63.3 0.7

63.1 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

90.6 -1.2

84.3 -6.9

79.4 -5.7

82.4 3.7

87.6 6.3

91.1 4.1

97.0 6.4

104.2 7.4

110.8 6.4

115.0 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

77.9 4.5

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.5

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.9 1.7

90.0 1.3

91.9 2.1

93.7 2.0

96.6 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.5 6.0

67.9 2.0

65.3 -3.8

65.0 -0.4

66.3 2.0

69.3 4.5

73.0 5.3

74.2 1.7

75.0 1.1

75.0 0.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24.0 -9.6

23.9 -0.7

22.5 -5.5

21.3 -5.5

21.3 0.2

21.5 0.7

21.5 0.1

21.7 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.0 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18.0 2.9

17.3 -3.8

17.3 -0.3

17.1 -1.0

16.9 -1.2

16.6 -1.6

16.4 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.2 3.6

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.1

59.1 0.4

59.2 0.2

57.4 -3.0

56.7 -1.2

56.9 0.3

57.3 0.7

57.9 1.0

1308.2 1.8

1324.0 1.2

1337.0 1.0

1350.0 1.0

1363.3 1.0

1380.1 1.2

1397.9 1.3

1416.1 1.3

1436.9 1.5

1460.6 1.6

677.0 4.1

688.1 1.6

680.0 -1.2

684.9 0.7

692.5 1.1

693.9 0.2

701.1 1.0

712.2 1.6

721.8 1.4

730.5 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.8

9.8

10.9

10.1

8.3

7.5

6.9

6.2

5.8

10453.4 7515.7 2938.0

7053.2 5172.1 1881.0

4933.7 3399.8 1534.0

3715.5 3563.6 152.0

3562.0 3173.2 389.0

6716.6 4707.6 2009.0

9499.2 6328.9 3170.0

11187.3 7343.6 3844.0

12746.9 9032.5 3714.0

13413.7 9533.7 3880.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

57.7 1.8 29.9 27.8

58.5 2.6 30.2 28.3

59.3 3.4 30.6 28.6

60.1 2.6 31.1 29

61.2 6.1 31.5 29.7

62 6 31.9 30

62.8 5.9 32.3 30.4

63.6 5.8 32.8 30.8

64.7 5.6 33.2 31.4

65.5 5.7 33.7 31.8

66.3 5.7 34.1 32.2

67.1 5.6 34.6 32.6

68.2 5.5 35 33.2

69.1 5.5 35.4 33.7

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.5 0.7

50.1 1.5

50.6 2.5

51.1 1.7

51.9 4.8

52.3 4.5

52.8 4.3

53.3 4.3

54 4.1

54.5 4.2

55 4.1

55.5 4

56.1 3.9

56.6 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

41.5 35.6

41.9 35.9

42.3 36.2

42.8 36.4

43.4 36.8

43.8 37

44.3 37.3

44.7 37.5

45.3 37.8

45.7 38

46.1 38.2

46.5 38.4

47 38.7

47.4 38.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48 -0.9

48.1 0.3

48.6 1.1

49 1.7

49.3 2.8

49.7 3.1

50 2.8

50.3 2.8

50.7 2.8

51.1 2.8

51.4 2.9

51.7 2.8

52.1 2.8

52.5 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

605.8 2.5

608.5 2.5

612.1 2.5

616.5 2.4

621 2.5

625.4 2.8

629.2 2.8

633.3 2.7

637.8 2.7

642.3 2.7

646.6 2.8

650.6 2.7

653.7 2.5

656.4 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.9 0.4

27.9 -0.4

28 0.3

28 -0.1

28.1 0.9

28.3 1.2

28.4 1.7

28.6 2.3

28.8 2.4

28.9 2.3

29 2.1

29.2 2

29.3 1.7

29.3 1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

578 2.6

580.6 2.6

584.1 2.7

588.5 2.6

592.9 2.6

597.1 2.8

600.8 2.9

604.7 2.7

609 2.7

613.4 2.7

617.6 2.8

621.4 2.8

624.4 2.5

627 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 3.5

28.7 4.4

29 5.3

29.3 6.1

29.8 5.2

30.6 6.8

31.4 8.5

32.5 10.7

33.5 12.2

34.6 13.1

35.8 13.8

36.8 13.4

37.6 12.2

38.1 10.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.1 1.5

127.9 1.7

128.4 2.3

129.3 2

129.6 2

130.1 1.7

130.6 1.7

131.3 1.5

131.6 1.6

132.2 1.6

133 1.9

133.9 2

134.4 2.1

135 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.2 70.7 31.1

25.3 71 31.3

25.5 71.1 31.6

25.7 71.3 32

25.8 71.5 32.2

25.9 71.6 32.5

26 71.6 32.8

26.2 71.7 33.1

26.4 71.8 33.4

26.6 71.9 33.7

26.8 72.2 33.9

27 72.5 34.2

27.2 72.5 34.5

27.4 72.6 34.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9 -4.4

9 -2.3

9.1 -1

9.1 0.4

9.1 1.8

9.1 0.3

9 -0.5

9.1 -0.5

9.1 0

9.2 1.1

9.2 1.7

9.2 1.8

9.3 2

9.4 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

61.3 3.7

61.5 2.4

61.7 2.5

62.1 1.6

62.4 1.7

62.8 2

63 2.1

63.2 1.7

63.3 1.4

63.3 0.9

63.3 0.5

63.2 0.1

63.1 -0.2

63 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.3 6.2

96 6.5

97.3 5.9

99.3 7

101.4 6.5

103.4 7.7

105.2 8.1

106.6 7.4

108.4 6.9

110.2 6.6

111.8 6.3

113 6

113.8 4.9

114.4 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

89.4 2.1

89.7 0.8

90.3 0.7

90.6 1.6

91.3 2.1

91.8 2.4

92 1.9

92.4 1.9

92.8 1.6

93.5 1.8

94.1 2.2

94.7 2.5

95.5 2.9

96.3 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

72.4 6.1

72.8 6.4

73.1 5.8

73.6 3.1

73.9 2.1

74.1 1.8

74.2 1.5

74.5 1.3

74.9 1.4

75 1.3

75 1

75.1 0.8

75.1 0.2

75 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 0.2

21.3 0.4

21.4 0.1

21.4 0

21.5 1.1

21.5 0.8

21.5 0.7

21.5 0.3

21.5 0.1

21.5 0

21.5 0.2

21.6 0.4

21.6 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 0.3

17 -1.4

17.1 -1.2

17 -1.8

17.1 -1.3

16.9 -0.2

16.8 -1.6

16.7 -1.8

16.7 -2

16.6 -1.8

16.6 -1.5

16.5 -1.2

16.4 -1.6

16.4 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

56.6 -2.5

56.7 -0.8

56.7 -0.7

56.8 -0.8

56.8 0.3

56.9 0.4

57 0.4

57.1 0.5

57.2 0.6

57.4 0.8

57.5 0.8

57.7 1

57.8 1

1391.3 1.3

1395.7 1.3

1400 1.3

1404.5 1.3

1409 1.3

1413.6 1.3

1418.3 1.3

1423.3 1.3

1428.6 1.4

1434 1.4

1439.7 1.5

1445.5 1.6

1451.5 1.6

1457.6 1.6

697.6 0.3

699.7 1.2

701.9 1.3

705.2 1.3

708.1 1.5

710.9 1.6

713.6 1.7

716 1.5

718.2 1.4

720.6 1.4

723.2 1.3

725.3 1.3

727.2 1.3

729.3 1.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

6.9

6.8

6.4

6.3

6.1

5.9

9161 6381 2781

9283 6229 3054

9581 6260 3322

9972 6446 3525

10499 6666 3833

11085 7195 3891

11449 7576 3873

11716 7937 3779

12148 8383 3765

12603 8929 3674

13065 9388 3678

13171 9429 3742

13277 9459 3818

13359 9502 3857

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. The Detroit Tigers also conduct spring training in Lakeland.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 4.5 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will be at $30,800, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $43,900, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.1 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 15,912.14 million dollars.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of 2012. This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 11,063

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,005

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Summit Consulting – 654

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to be 1.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 7.5 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.6 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 4.3 percent a year, and the Manufacturing sector averaging 1.7 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -2.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Lakeland commissioners pushing on with Tiger Town rehab

• City commissioners gave approval for staff to continue with conceptual drawings of the Detroit Tiger’s spring training and minor league facilities at Tiger Town and Joker Merchant Stadium. • The proposed changes include renovations to the stadium for fans and training facilities for the Tiger organization. The upgrades could cost between $20 and $30 million. • Mark Jackson of the Central Florida Tourist Development Council has noted four potential sources of funding: the Detroit Tigers, Lakeland, the Tourist Development Council,

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

La k e l a n d

and partnering businesses. The state of Florida has also financially supported spring training facilities in the past because of the economic return in tourism and employment. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 19, 2013

Winter Haven commissioners agree to talks with Landings developers • City commissioners gave The Landings developers another month to reach an agreement that will satisfy the city’s concerns. This comes after a January 28 letter gave The Landings 30 days to vacate the property.

• There are three possible outcomes of the meeting: a new agreement will emerge for consideration, no agreement will be reached, or there will be another extension.

• The city’s letter cited multiple failures including not closing on a 0.33 acre city-owned land purchase, not submitting declaration of covenants, conditions, and restrictions by May 5, 2012, and not advancing the project in a time manner consistent with the project agreement. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 11, 2013

Economic Council sought for Lake Wales

• Local business leaders have proposed creating an economic development council to encourage more economic development in Lake Wales.

• Under the proposal, the city would contribute $100,000 a year to the council. The proposal also plans for the economic development council to be a division of the Chamber of Commerce.

admission to Legoland Florida and Legoland Water Park with no blackout days.

• Also included in the pass: free regular parking, 10 percent retail and dining discount, admission to special Legoland events, guest discounts, and unlimited admission to other U.S. Merlin properties. • The new pass will put Legoland in more competition with other Central Florida theme parks and attractions. The announcement comes one week after Legoland announced variable pricing options with discounts for prepurchased tickets. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 20, 2013

Polk foreclosures down in February

• According to RealtyTrac total filings in Polk County were down 26 percent on an annual basis and fell 11.3 percent in January.

• Nationally filings dropped 25.4 percent from last year, and increased 2.3 percent from January. Florida had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate in February for the sixth consecutive month, with one in every 282 homes received a filing.

• Winter Haven real estate agent Michael Stone notes that investors have been aggressively buying up distressed properties in anticipation of a continued recovery in local home values. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 14, 2013

• The council will use a mixture of public and private funds, with public funds paying for economic development salary, benefits, budgeting, and marketing, and private funds paying for client and business services. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 17, 2013

Legoland introduces $99 annual pass with free parking plus retail and dining discounts • A new Florida Resident Annual Pass was announced by Legoland. The pass gives

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

17000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 13000.0 12000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0

2.5

15000.0

210.0

170.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.4 4.0 8.1 11.3

18.3 -5.7 7.7 10.6

19.5 6.7 7.7 11.8

20.4 4.4 7.8 12.6

21.1 3.5 8.0 13.1

21.6 2.4 8.3 13.3

22.7 5.2 8.7 14.1

23.9 5.0 9.1 14.8

25.1 5.2 9.5 15.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 2.8

17.8 0.7

16.8 -5.8

17.6 4.7

17.9 1.9

18.2 1.7

18.5 1.4

19.2 3.7

19.8 3.4

20.5 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.8 30.2

32.6 29.9

30.5 28.0

32.3 29.1

33.4 29.3

34.2 29.5

34.7 29.6

36.1 30.4

37.5 31.2

39.0 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.2 2.0

38.7 1.3

39.0 0.9

40.0 2.4

40.7 1.8

41.4 1.7

42.2 1.9

43.3 2.6

44.4 2.6

45.6 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

210.6 0.0

207.3 -1.6

196.4 -5.2

191.7 -2.4

190.7 -0.5

192.8 1.1

195.0 1.1

198.7 1.9

203.2 2.2

207.4 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.1

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.3

14.2 0.0

14.5 1.9

14.7 1.3

14.9 1.4

15.2 2.2

15.5 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

193.4 0.4

190.9 -1.3

181.6 -4.9

177.5 -2.3

176.5 -0.6

178.3 1.0

180.3 1.1

183.9 2.0

188.0 2.2

191.9 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.4

11.0 -8.8

10.4 -5.9

10.2 -1.8

10.4 2.2

11.3 8.2

12.8 13.8

14.1 10.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -6.0

44.9 -0.9

46.0 2.4

46.9 2.1

47.6 1.5

48.0 0.8

48.6 1.1

49.5 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12.0

8.7 24.2 12.0

9.0 24.5 12.5

9.2 24.5 13.2

9.3 24.5 13.7

9.4 24.5 14.0

9.6 24.6 14.4

9.9 24.7 14.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7.0

1.7 -6.6

1.6 -3.0

1.6 0.7

1.6 0.1

1.6 1.3

1.7 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.0 2.4

12.4 2.8

12.0 -3.4

11.8 -1.7

11.6 -1.4

11.4 -1.8

11.4 0.5

11.6 1.5

11.7 0.6

11.6 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24.3 -5.3

25.2 3.7

25.5 1.2

27.0 5.9

28.6 6.0

29.8 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 5.0

29.4 4.0

29.0 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.6 1.5

29.3 -1.0

29.6 1.3

30.2 1.8

30.5 1.1

31.1 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.3 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.8 6.1

18.9 6.1

19.2 1.6

19.3 0.5

19.3 0.2

19.2 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -6.4

7.0 -4.9

6.7 -4.6

6.5 -3.5

6.1 -6.1

6.0 -1.0

6.1 1.0

6.1 0.3

6.1 -0.3

6.1 0.0

1.4 1.2

1.4 0.0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -24.6

1.1 -7.6

1.1 -1.3

1.0 -5.5

1.0 -4.3

1.0 0.0

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.0 -1.6

27.7 -0.8

27.7 0.0

27.8 0.2

27.9 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

586.5 2.8

595.0 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.6 1.1

617.0 1.0

623.9 1.1

630.4 1.1

636.4 0.9

643.6 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

269.0 3.0

273.5 1.7

272.6 -0.3

276.1 1.3

274.5 -0.6

273.7 -0.3

273.2 -0.2

272.7 -0.2

272.4 -0.1

272.6 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

6.7

11.1

12.2

11.6

9.7

8.4

7.7

7.1

6.9

4376.9 4029.9 347.0

3222.7 2364.5 858.0

1203.1 1190.0 13.0

1226.7 1169.3 57.0

1112.3 1059.4 53.0

1500.4 1441.3 59.0

2240.0 2161.7 78.0

4035.2 3641.2 394.0

5671.5 4916.7 755.0

6031.8 5119.8 912.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.2 2.3 8.2 13.1

21.5 2.6 8.2 13.3

21.7 2.9 8.3 13.4

22 1.9 8.4 13.6

22.4 5.5 8.5 13.9

22.6 5.1 8.6 14

22.9 5.1 8.7 14.2

23.1 5 8.8 14.3

23.5 4.8 8.9 14.6

23.7 5 9 14.7

24 5 9.1 14.9

24.3 5.2 9.3 15

24.7 5.1 9.4 15.3

25 5.2 9.5 15.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 1.3

18.4 1.5

18.6 2

18.7 1

19 4.2

19.1 3.7

19.2 3.6

19.4 3.5

19.6 3.3

19.8 3.5

19.9 3.5

20.1 3.5

20.3 3.5

20.5 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.2 29.3

34.5 29.6

34.8 29.7

35.1 29.9

35.6 30.2

35.9 30.3

36.2 30.5

36.5 30.6

37 30.9

37.3 31.1

37.7 31.2

38 31.4

38.5 31.7

38.8 31.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.8 1.3

42 2.1

42.3 2.3

42.6 2.1

42.9 2.5

43.1 2.7

43.4 2.6

43.7 2.6

44 2.6

44.3 2.6

44.5 2.6

44.8 2.6

45.2 2.7

45.5 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 1.3

194.6 1.1

195.3 0.8

196.3 1.4

197.4 1.8

198.3 1.9

199.2 2

200.1 1.9

201.3 2

202.5 2.1

203.9 2.4

205.1 2.5

206.1 2.4

206.9 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 3

14.7 2.2

14.7 0.5

14.7 -0.4

14.8 0.8

14.8 1.1

14.9 1.6

15 2.3

15.1 2.2

15.2 2.3

15.2 2.2

15.3 2.2

15.4 1.9

15.4 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

179.2 1.1

179.9 1

180.6 0.8

181.7 1.5

182.6 1.9

183.5 2

184.2 2

185.1 1.9

186.2 1.9

187.4 2.1

188.6 2.4

189.8 2.5

190.7 2.5

191.5 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 1.6

10.3 2.6

10.5 2.6

10.6 2.2

10.8 5.3

11.1 7.1

11.4 9

11.8 11.3

12.2 12.7

12.6 13.7

13 14.5

13.4 14.1

13.7 13

14 11.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

47.4 1.8

47.6 1.7

47.7 1.1

47.9 1.4

48 1.3

48 0.9

48 0.8

48.2 0.5

48.4 0.9

48.7 1.4

49 1.7

49.2 1.9

49.4 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.3 24.4 13.6

9.3 24.5 13.6

9.3 24.5 13.7

9.4 24.5 13.9

9.4 24.6 14

9.4 24.5 14

9.4 24.4 14.1

9.5 24.4 14.1

9.5 24.5 14.2

9.6 24.5 14.3

9.6 24.6 14.4

9.7 24.7 14.6

9.8 24.6 14.7

9.8 24.6 14.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0

1.6 1.4

1.6 1.3

1.6 0.2

1.6 1.5

1.6 0.1

1.6 -0.6

1.6 -0.7

1.6 -0.1

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.9

1.6 2.2

1.7 2.3

1.7 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 0.9

11.4 0.4

11.4 -0.1

11.5 0.8

11.5 1.1

11.6 1.6

11.7 1.9

11.7 1.4

11.7 1.1

11.7 0.8

11.7 0.4

11.7 0.1

11.7 0

11.6 -0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 1.6

25.3 0.8

25.6 -0.6

26 3

26.5 5.2

26.9 6.2

27.2 6.5

27.5 5.6

27.9 5.5

28.4 5.7

28.9 6.1

29.3 6.5

29.5 5.6

29.6 4.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.4 0.4

29.6 0.8

29.8 1.9

29.8 2.3

30.1 2.2

30.2 2

30.2 1.5

30.3 1.5

30.3 1

30.5 1

30.6 1.1

30.8 1.5

31 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 2.6

19.2 1.4

19.2 1.3

19.3 1

19.3 0.5

19.3 0.3

19.3 0.1

19.4 0.4

19.3 0.3

19.3 0.2

19.3 -0.1

19.2 -0.7

19.2 -0.9

6.1 1.3

6.1 -0.5

6.1 1.2

6.1 2

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.4

6.1 0.3

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.2

6.1 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -4.7

1.1 -1.5

1.1 1.4

1.1 -0.2

1 -3.4

1 -3.9

1 -7.8

1 -6.6

1 -4.8

1 -4.5

1 -4.2

1 -3.9

1 -0.2

1 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.7 -0.4

27.7 0.2

27.7 -0.2

27.8 0.1

27.7 0.1

27.8 0.1

27.7 0

27.8 0

27.8 0.1

27.8 0.2

27.8 0.3

27.9 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

621.3 1.1

623 1.1

624.8 1.1

626.5 1.1

628.2 1.1

629.7 1.1

631.2 1

632.6 1

634.1 0.9

635.6 0.9

637.2 0.9

638.9 1

640.7 1

642.6 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

273.4 0.2

273.2 0.1

273.1 -0.9

273 -0.2

272.9 -0.2

272.7 -0.2

272.6 -0.2

272.5 -0.2

272.4 -0.2

272.4 -0.1

272.5 0

272.4 0

272.5 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.7

8.5

8.3

8.2

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.9

1729 1704 25

2033 2017 15

2390 2299 91

2809 2627 182

3245 2993 252

3842 3509 333

4317 3872 445

4737 4191 546

5190 4535 655

5619 4881 738

5931 5135 796

5946 5115 831

5993 5113 880

6011 5110 901

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, and the real per capita income level, at $39,200, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.4 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $54,900, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.5 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 255,695.57 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.2 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at 6.9 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 10.3 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 5.1 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 2.0 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with annual growth rate of -1.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Port Everglades ranks No. 1 exporting foreigntrade zone in the U.S.

• The Foreign-Trade Zone Board’s 73rd annual report to Congress names Port Everglades as the 2011 top exporting foreign-trade zone for warehousing and distribution activity. • Foreign trade zone No. 25 saw a 68 percent increase in merchandise received during 2011, and exports increased by 66 percent. Merchandise received and exported reached $3.7 billion. • Port Everglades, Florida’s first and largest foreign trade zone, serves 75 businesses and supports over 500 direct jobs in the local economy.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 23, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Dolphins stadium bill gets Florida Senate committee approval

• The Senate’s Commerce and Tourism Committee voted 11-0 to move a bill benefiting the Miami Dolphins stadium upgrade forward.

• The bill could provide as much as $200 million in public subsidy from the state, offering $3 million tax rebates annually to sports teams undertaking a $250 million stadium upgrade (as long as the owner is paying a minimum of $125 million), and grants authority to Miami-Dade County to raise the mainland hotel tax from 6 to 7 percent. • Owner Stephen Ross has said the purpose of the upgrades is to seriously compete for future Super Bowls, including their bid for 2016.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, February 5, 2013

Hialeah sugar firm Banah files for bankruptcy

• Banah Sugar International Group Inc., a sugar processing company that moved into a 300,000-square-foot facility last July, filed for bankruptcy protection.

• The company had promised to hire up to 300 workers, prompting the city to rename a stretch of Southeast 10th Avenue “Banah Sweet Way” in its honor. Upon filing for bankruptcy, the company had only 15 employees and owed between $1 million to $10 million to 232 people or companies. • Banah filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing for an attempt to reorganize the company and maintain day-to-day operations. However, the bankruptcy court must make all the company’s important decisions.

Source: The Miami Herald, February 26, 2013

Miami Beach Convention Center site upgrade could cost $1B

• Miami Beach Commissioner Ed Tobin estimated the potential renovation price to be between $500 million and $1 billion based on plans presented by two groups competing for the job.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

• The groups, South Beach ACE and Portman CMC, are vying for the project contract that is planned to encompass 52 acres and include City Hall and the Fillmore Miami Beach at the Jackie Gleason Theatre.

• The top-range projected costs have derailed the project in the past. Ideas for financing the project include city-sold bonds, tourist tax dollars, and long-term leases with the developer. Miami Beach residents will have to approve the final plan through a referendum. Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 1, 2013

Jorge Perez, Sam Nazarian to build $300M SLS condo-hotel in Miami • The Related Group and SBE Entertainment Group plan to develop a $300 million SLS Brickell condo-hotel.

• The Wall Street Journal has reported the groups will develop the 133-room hotel together, and Related Group will develop the 450 SLS branded condos on top.

• The condos will have a price tag of more than $500 per square-foot for an average of $600,000 per unit, and are anticipated to be purchased mostly by foreigners. The hotel rates will be set in the high $200s per night. Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 13, 2013

Mia m i â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P o m pa n o B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 280000.0

6.0%

220000.0

4.0%

200000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

180000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

1.2

(Millions 2000 $)

240000.0

8.0%

2500.0

260000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Miami Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

238.3 4.1 114.3 124.0

242.9 1.9 113.0 129.9

222.8 -8.3 106.4 116.5

233.4 4.7 107.4 126.0

244.2 4.6 111.3 133.0

252.7 3.5 115.9 136.9

258.9 2.4 119.4 139.4

273.4 5.6 125.6 147.7

288.1 5.4 132.6 155.6

303.9 5.5 139.3 164.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

225.9 1.4

223.0 -1.3

204.5 -8.3

210.1 2.7

214.6 2.2

218.3 1.7

221.3 1.4

230.5 4.1

239.4 3.9

248.5 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.9 41.6

44.5 40.8

40.4 37.1

41.7 37.5

42.9 37.7

43.8 37.8

44.2 37.8

46.0 38.8

47.8 39.7

49.6 40.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.0 2.8

47.7 1.5

47.9 0.4

48.7 1.8

49.6 1.8

50.5 1.8

51.3 1.5

52.7 2.8

54.2 2.8

55.6 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2419.3 0.9

2355.8 -2.6

2207.1 -6.3

2189.5 -0.8

2228.8 1.8

2280.2 2.3

2315.3 1.5

2369.5 2.3

2433.0 2.7

2489.5 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

99.5 -2.0

93.4 -6.1

80.5 -13.8

76.0 -5.6

76.3 0.5

77.0 0.8

76.6 -0.4

77.5 1.2

78.9 1.8

79.6 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2319.8 1.1

2262.4 -2.5

2126.6 -6.0

2113.5 -0.6

2152.4 1.8

2203.2 2.4

2238.7 1.6

2292.0 2.4

2354.1 2.7

2409.9 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

161.6 -2.0

135.5 -16.2

102.9 -24.0

89.1 -13.5

85.7 -3.7

87.8 2.4

92.8 5.8

101.4 9.3

116.9 15.2

129.9 11.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

550.3 1.1

541.5 -1.6

505.7 -6.6

504.9 -0.2

520.4 3.1

538.0 3.4

551.2 2.5

559.3 1.5

568.0 1.6

578.9 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

148.4 306.1 95.8

145.2 301.0 95.3

135.4 281.1 89.1

132.6 283.9 88.4

134.5 294.9 91.0

139.6 304.2 94.2

144.5 308.6 96.6

147.8 310.5 100.2

151.4 312.5 103.9

154.8 314.9 108.0

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3.0

44.1 1.2

45.0 2.0

45.2 0.5

45.5 0.6

46.1 1.2

46.9 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

182.4 -1.2

171.9 -5.8

156.2 -9.1

153.3 -1.9

156.4 2.0

161.5 3.3

162.8 0.8

163.9 0.7

164.7 0.5

164.2 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

365.4 0.6

348.6 -4.6

320.7 -8.0

324.2 1.1

337.8 4.2

348.7 3.2

354.4 1.7

379.0 6.9

405.5 7.0

424.9 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

318.9 3.5

326.3 2.3

330.6 1.3

335.4 1.5

339.9 1.3

341.6 0.5

346.7 1.5

353.4 1.9

359.8 1.8

370.0 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

258.6 2.5

257.7 -0.4

248.2 -3.7

252.2 1.6

262.1 3.9

274.8 4.8

281.8 2.6

286.1 1.5

289.2 1.1

288.9 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

106.1 1.4

106.2 0.1

98.7 -7.0

98.2 -0.5

101.5 3.3

107.2 5.7

106.5 -0.7

106.9 0.4

106.9 0.0

107.4 0.5

34.0 -0.3

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -6.9

33.8 -1.0

33.2 -1.7

32.5 -2.2

31.7 -2.2

31.4 -1.1

291.2 1.4

291.2 0.0

284.5 -2.3

275.9 -3.0

270.4 -2.0

264.9 -2.0

263.9 -0.4

264.0 0.0

265.3 0.5

267.4 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5429.3 0.0

5462.0 0.6

5517.5 1.0

5602.4 1.5

5695.7 1.7

5772.6 1.3

5855.1 1.4

5944.5 1.5

6033.7 1.5

6124.0 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2877.0 4.7

2872.9 -0.1

2800.7 -2.5

2836.2 1.3

2890.5 1.9

2911.6 0.7

2933.7 0.8

2968.9 1.2

3003.0 1.1

3034.7 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

6.0

10.3

11.2

10.4

8.6

7.8

7.2

6.4

6.1

14672.5 7636.3 7036.0

7434.2 3536.5 3898.0

3464.6 2217.0 1248.0

5064.1 3268.2 1796.0

7291.1 4123.1 3168.0

11520.7 5418.0 6103.0

15963.4 7910.5 8053.0

25431.9 13083.1 12349.0

33480.8 19193.8 14287.0

36846.5 21308.1 15538.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

253.8 1.7 117.5 136.3

257.3 2.4 118.5 138.8

260.5 3.2 120.1 140.4

263.8 2.4 121.6 142.2

268.6 5.9 123.2 145.4

271.6 5.5 124.9 146.7

274.9 5.5 126.4 148.5

278.3 5.5 128 150.3

282.8 5.3 129.9 153

286.3 5.4 131.7 154.6

289.9 5.5 133.5 156.4

293.5 5.5 135.2 158.3

298.3 5.4 136.9 161.4

301.9 5.4 138.5 163.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

217.8 0.7

220.4 1.3

222.5 2.2

224.6 1.4

227.8 4.6

229.4 4.1

231.4 4

233.5 3.9

236.4 3.8

238.4 3.9

240.5 3.9

242.4 3.8

245.5 3.8

247.4 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.6 37.4

44 37.7

44.4 37.9

44.8 38.1

45.4 38.5

45.8 38.7

46.2 38.9

46.5 39.1

47.1 39.4

47.5 39.6

48 39.8

48.4 39.9

49 40.3

49.4 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 0.4

51 1.4

51.5 2.1

51.8 2.2

52.2 2.7

52.5 3

52.9 2.8

53.2 2.8

53.6 2.8

54 2.8

54.4 2.8

54.7 2.8

55.1 2.7

55.5 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2299.9 1.6

2308.4 1.2

2319.3 1.4

2333.7 1.9

2348 2.1

2362.7 2.4

2376.2 2.5

2391.1 2.5

2407.6 2.5

2424.9 2.6

2441.7 2.8

2457.9 2.8

2471.1 2.6

2482.8 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

76.6 -0.9

76.7 -0.2

76.7 -0.3

76.5 -0.4

77 0.5

77.3 0.9

77.7 1.4

78.1 2

78.5 2

78.9 2

79.1 1.7

79.3 1.6

79.5 1.3

79.6 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2223.3 1.7

2231.7 1.3

2242.6 1.5

2257.2 2

2271 2.1

2285.4 2.4

2298.5 2.5

2313.1 2.5

2329.1 2.6

2346 2.7

2362.6 2.8

2378.5 2.8

2391.6 2.7

2403.2 2.4

90.9 5.6

92.2 6.8

93.4 6.2

94.8 4.5

96.8 6.4

99.7 8.1

102.8 10.1

106.5 12.3

110.5 14.1

114.8 15.2

119.3 16

123.1 15.6

126.3 14.3

128.8 12.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

547.4 2.6

550.3 2.4

552.1 2.4

555.2 2.5

556.4 1.6

558.2 1.5

560 1.4

562.4 1.3

563.6 1.3

566 1.4

569.4 1.7

572.9 1.9

575.1 2

577.5 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

143.2 307.6 95.5

143.8 308.5 96

145 308.8 96.9

146 309.3 98

146.8 310.5 98.9

147.4 310.6 99.8

148.1 310.3 100.5

149.1 310.5 101.4

150.1 311.3 102.4

150.9 311.8 103.4

151.7 313 104.4

152.7 314.2 105.5

153.6 314 106.6

154.3 314.5 107.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

44.7 -0.2

45.1 0.4

45.3 0.4

45.6 1.4

45.7 2.2

45.4 0.7

45.3 -0.1

45.5 -0.2

45.8 0.2

46 1.3

46.1 1.7

46.3 1.7

46.6 1.7

46.9 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

163 1.9

162.7 0.7

162.7 0

163 0.7

163.2 0.1

163.9 0.7

164.2 0.9

164.3 0.8

164.6 0.9

164.8 0.6

164.8 0.4

164.6 0.1

164.4 -0.1

164 -0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

348.8 1.4

351.2 0.2

355.4 1.2

362.3 3.8

369.2 5.8

375.9 7

382.5 7.6

388.5 7.2

395.6 7.2

402.6 7.1

409.1 6.9

414.7 6.7

418.7 5.8

422.4 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

344.8 1.3

345.6 1.1

347.7 1.6

348.9 2

351.3 1.9

353.1 2.2

353.9 1.8

355.2 1.8

356.6 1.5

358.9 1.6

360.8 2

363.1 2.2

365.9 2.6

368.8 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

279.7 3.2

281.4 2.8

282.3 2.2

283.9 2

285.1 1.9

285.9 1.6

286.3 1.4

287.2 1.2

289 1.4

289.3 1.2

289.1 1

289.4 0.8

289.4 0.1

288.9 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

106.3 -0.3

106.5 -1.3

106.6 -1.1

106.7 0.1

106.8 0.5

106.9 0.4

107 0.4

106.8 0.1

106.8 0

106.8 -0.1

106.9 -0.1

107 0.1

107.1 0.3

107.3 0.5

33.4 -1.5

32.9 -2.7

33.4 -0.9

33.1 -1.7

32.8 -1.9

32.6 -1.1

32.4 -3

32.2 -2.9

31.9 -2.6

31.8 -2.3

31.7 -2.1

31.6 -1.8

31.5 -1.2

31.4 -1.1

264.2 -0.7

264 -0.6

263.7 -0.2

263.6 -0.2

263.8 -0.1

264.1 0.2

264.4 0.3

264.6 0.4

265 0.5

265.5 0.5

266 0.6

266.6 0.7

267.1 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5822.4 1.4

5843.7 1.4

5866 1.5

5888.4 1.5

5910.7 1.5

5933.1 1.5

5955.8 1.5

5978.4 1.5

6000.7 1.5

6022.5 1.5

6044.6 1.5

6067 1.5

6089.7 1.5

6112.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2921.4 0.4

2929.3 0.7

2937.6 0.9

2946.6 1

2956 1.2

2964.6 1.2

2973.5 1.2

2981.4 1.2

2990.2 1.2

2999.4 1.2

3007.1 1.1

3015.4 1.1

3023 1.1

3030.8 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.6

6.5

6.3

6.2

6.1

13099 6652 6448

14438 7434 7004

16855 8258 8597

19461 9298 10162

21888 10534 11354

24348 12291 12057

26738 13971 12767

28754 15536 13218

31060 17175 13885

32997 18900 14097

34639 20221 14418

35227 20479 14748

35901 20785 15116

36526 21133 15394

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”. It is the largest county in Florida, geographically.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 5.7 percent. Real per capita income level, which is expected to be $54,900, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $51,100. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 2.1 percent, the second highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 14,078.55 million dollars.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 151,357 in April 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau). • An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,255 unemployed people (U.S. Census Bureau). Top Area Employers: • Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,100 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,100 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056 • Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800 • Marriott – 700 • Naples Grande Beach Resort – 760 • Downing Frye Realty – 550 • Golf Bay Group Co. – 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 2.8 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 9.1 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector and Education and Health Services sector follow with growth rates of 4.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline this quarter at -3.1 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Lights! Camera! Renovate! Pavilion theater about to receive makeover

• Deerfield Beach-based Paragon Theaters has acquired Pavilion Cinemas, which first opened in the 1980’s, and will receive a $3 to $4 million renovation. • The luxury theater will be open for the next several months until closing for renovations. The Paragon Pavilion is expected to open again in time for the holiday season. • The current six auditoriums will all be remodeled, and the goal is to build a seventh, which will be a 300-seat Imax theater.

Source: Naples News, March 19, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

New home construction under way at Vineyards

• Award-winning master-planned community Vineyards is introducing new single-family luxury estate homes in Venezia Grande Estates and Hammock Isles neighborhoods. • Construction models include Tuscany II, Santorini, Portofino, Seville II, St. Croix, and Isabella. The latter two floor plans have been revised due to market demand. All homes include an enclosed, heated pool and spa, landscaping, and a full golf membership for a limited time.

would be reduced by $1.75 million to $618,000. Marketing would receive an additional $1.9 million per year for a total of $5 million, and beach renourishment would receive an additional $500,000 for a total of $5.3 million. Source: Naples News, February 26, 2013

• Vineyards Development Corp. and its subsidiary, Premier Builders Inc., remain debt free. Source: Naples News, March 17, 2013

Compromise will keep Naples Bay Resort open, obtain loan and pay debt

• Under a plan negotiated by about a dozen attorneys, Texas-based investor EFO Financial Group will provide a $7.1 million dollar loan to get Naples Bay Resort out of bankruptcy. The same group gave nearly $4 million of capital last year to keep the resort from closing. • The project employs over 100 people over 20 acres, 85 hotel rooms, 30 residencies, and 97 boat slips.

• Under the plan, the resort will remain open and be sold to Antamarian Properties, which will pay back the loan. Source: Naples News, February 27, 2013

Beaches, marketing to get more Collier tourist dollars, museums get less

• A plan by Collier County commissioners to divvy up the 4 percent tax on hotel stays and short-term rentals cuts the share going to museums and beach parks in favor of more advertising and beach renourishment projects. • Museums would get $1.4 million annually from tourist tax revenues, which is $200,000 less. Money for new beach park amenities

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0

11000.0 10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

120.0 110.0 100.0

1.4

12000.0

130.0

90.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

9000.0

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

13000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

21.0 5.5 5.6 15.4

17.5 -16.9 5.0 12.4

18.5 5.8 5.1 13.4

19.4 5.1 5.3 14.1

20.2 4.1 5.6 14.6

20.8 2.9 5.9 15.0

22.2 6.6 6.2 16.0

23.6 6.4 6.6 17.0

25.3 7.0 7.0 18.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 1.5

19.3 2.2

16.0 -16.9

16.7 3.8

17.1 2.6

17.5 2.3

17.8 1.9

18.7 5.2

19.6 4.8

20.7 5.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

63.4 60.1

66.4 61.0

54.8 50.3

57.2 51.5

59.3 52.1

60.8 52.5

61.5 52.6

64.4 54.3

67.1 55.7

69.8 57.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 4.1

46.2 -1.8

45.7 -1.3

46.5 1.9

46.8 0.7

47.5 1.5

48.8 2.7

50.3 3.1

51.8 3.0

53.4 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

128.8 -2.3

120.3 -6.6

110.0 -8.6

109.9 -0.1

113.4 3.3

117.5 3.6

119.4 1.6

123.0 3.0

127.2 3.4

131.2 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 -1.3

3.0 -9.7

2.6 -11.2

2.5 -6.7

2.5 1.4

2.6 6.3

2.7 2.5

2.8 2.0

2.8 2.5

2.9 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.6 -2.3

117.3 -6.6

107.3 -8.5

107.4 0.1

110.9 3.3

114.9 3.5

116.7 1.6

120.2 3.0

124.3 3.4

128.3 3.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -27.9

9.1 -12.9

9.0 -1.0

9.4 4.3

9.8 4.4

10.5 7.0

11.9 13.8

13.2 11.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 -1.2

23.2 -4.9

21.4 -7.7

21.6 1.0

22.5 4.0

22.9 1.9

22.9 -0.1

23.3 1.8

23.8 2.0

24.4 2.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 19.4 1.6

3.3 18.4 1.5

3.1 16.9 1.5

3.1 17.0 1.5

3.2 17.9 1.4

3.2 18.3 1.4

3.2 18.2 1.3

3.3 18.6 1.4

3.4 18.9 1.4

3.6 19.3 1.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -8.9

1.5 -4.1

1.5 -4.8

1.4 -2.0

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.0

1.5 2.2

1.6 3.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -9.8

6.5 -1.0

6.7 3.6

6.8 1.1

6.9 2.5

7.1 1.6

7.1 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 -8.2

11.0 -4.9

10.5 -4.6

11.1 5.8

12.1 9.3

13.6 12.1

13.7 1.0

14.7 7.1

15.7 6.5

16.4 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.3

17.1 2.8

17.9 4.4

18.0 1.0

18.5 2.4

19.1 3.2

19.5 2.3

20.1 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 4.9

22.8 -2.0

21.0 -8.2

21.3 1.7

22.6 6.0

23.6 4.6

24.2 2.5

24.6 1.8

25.0 1.5

25.1 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.0 3.2

6.0 0.4

5.7 -5.3

5.7 0.0

5.6 -1.9

5.6 1.1

5.5 -2.0

5.6 1.9

5.7 1.2

5.8 1.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.2

0.8 14.7

0.7 -10.6

0.7 -7.1

0.6 -8.3

0.6 -2.7

0.6 -2.2

0.6 0.6

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1.6

12.7 0.3

12.9 1.5

13.2 2.5

13.4 1.4

13.6 1.6

13.9 2.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.2 0.8

323.5 1.3

328.1 1.4

333.1 1.5

338.6 1.6

344.8 1.8

352.3 2.2

362.1 2.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

152.4 1.2

148.4 -2.7

143.1 -3.6

144.5 1.0

148.3 2.6

150.8 1.6

151.9 0.7

154.1 1.4

156.6 1.7

159.6 1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

6.9

10.9

11.6

10.3

8.5

7.6

7.3

6.8

6.6

1984.9 1165.7 819.0

966.3 669.1 297.0

833.0 633.4 200.0

1205.5 804.3 401.0

1209.2 922.5 287.0

1559.4 1323.0 236.0

2163.8 1772.6 391.0

3459.3 2168.6 1291.0

4952.6 2897.3 2055.0

5324.2 3079.1 2245.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s - Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.4 2.7 5.7 14.6

20.7 3.1 5.8 14.9

21 3.9 5.9 15.1

21.3 2 6 15.3

21.8 7.1 6.1 15.7

22.1 6.6 6.2 15.9

22.4 6.5 6.3 16.1

22.7 6.4 6.4 16.3

23.1 6 6.4 16.6

23.4 6.3 6.6 16.9

23.8 6.5 6.7 17.1

24.2 6.7 6.8 17.4

24.7 6.7 6.9 17.8

25.1 6.9 7 18.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 1.6

17.7 1.9

17.9 2.9

18.1 1.1

18.5 5.8

18.6 5.1

18.8 5

19 4.8

19.3 4.4

19.5 4.8

19.7 4.9

20 5.1

20.3 5.1

20.5 5.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

60.5 51.9

61.3 52.5

61.8 52.8

62.5 53.2

63.7 54

64.1 54.2

64.7 54.4

65.2 54.7

66.2 55.3

66.8 55.6

67.4 55.9

68 56.2

68.8 56.7

69.5 56.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.2 1.8

48.6 2.6

49 3.4

49.4 3

49.7 3

50.1 3.2

50.5 3

50.8 3

51.2 2.9

51.6 3

52 3

52.4 3

52.8 3.1

53.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

118.1 1.4

119 1.4

119.7 2

120.7 1.5

121.7 3

122.6 3

123.4 3.1

124.3 3

125.4 3

126.6 3.3

127.8 3.6

128.8 3.7

129.8 3.5

130.7 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.7 3.6

2.7 3.8

2.7 2.9

2.7 0

2.7 1.4

2.7 1.6

2.8 2.1

2.8 2.7

2.8 2.6

2.8 2.7

2.8 2.5

2.9 2.4

2.9 1.8

2.9 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

115.4 1.4

116.3 1.3

117 2

118 1.5

118.9 3

119.8 3.1

120.6 3.1

121.5 3

122.6 3.1

123.8 3.3

124.9 3.6

126 3.7

126.9 3.5

127.8 3.2

9.7 5.6

9.7 4.1

9.8 4.9

9.9 3.3

10.1 3.8

10.3 5.7

10.6 8

10.9 10.2

11.2 11.9

11.7 13.4

12.2 14.7

12.5 15

12.8 14.1

13.1 12.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 -0.3

22.9 0

22.9 -0.3

23.1 0.1

23.2 2.3

23.2 1.7

23.3 1.7

23.5 1.5

23.7 1.8

23.9 2.3

24 2.5

24.2 2.8

24.4 3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 18 1.3

3.2 18.2 1.3

3.3 18.3 1.3

3.3 18.5 1.3

3.3 18.5 1.4

3.3 18.6 1.4

3.4 18.6 1.4

3.4 18.8 1.4

3.4 18.9 1.4

3.4 19 1.4

3.5 19.1 1.4

3.5 19.2 1.4

3.6 19.3 1.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 3.5

1.5 4.4

1.5 0.6

1.5 -2.7

1.5 2.3

1.5 1

1.5 0.4

1.5 0.2

1.5 0.7

1.5 2

1.5 2.8

1.5 3.1

1.5 3.3

1.6 3.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 1.1

6.8 1.1

6.8 1.3

6.9 2.3

6.9 2.8

7 2.7

7 2.3

7 2.2

7.1 1.8

7.1 1.5

7.1 1.1

7.1 0.8

7.1 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.5 0.6

13.6 -1.7

13.8 1.6

14.1 3.4

14.4 6.9

14.6 7.6

14.8 7.6

15 6.4

15.3 6

15.6 6.3

15.8 6.7

16.1 7.1

16.2 6.2

16.3 5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 2.5

18.4 2.5

18.6 3.3

18.7 1.6

18.9 3.4

19 3.4

19.1 3

19.2 3

19.3 2.3

19.5 2.3

19.6 2.4

19.7 2.4

19.9 2.7

20 2.9

24 2.1

24.2 3.2

24.3 2.9

24.4 1.7

24.6 2.4

24.6 1.9

24.7 1.6

24.7 1.3

25 1.6

25 1.5

25 1.3

25.1 0.6

25.1 0.4

5.5 -4.1

5.5 -3.1

5.5 -0.8

5.6 0

5.6 2.3

5.6 2.1

5.6 1.9

5.6 1.4

5.7 1.3

5.7 1.2

5.7 1.1

5.7 1.4

5.8 1.7

0.6 -14.6

0.6 -13.1

0.6 -1.5

0.6 -2.5

0.6 -1.5

0.6 -1.4

0.6 -4.3

0.6 -3.7

0.6 -2.6

0.6 -2.3

0.6 -2

0.6 -1.8

0.6 0.3

0.6 0.5

13.2 2.7

13.2 2.4

13.3 3.2

13.3 1.9

13.3 1.4

13.4 1.4

13.4 1.3

13.5 1.3

13.5 1.5

13.6 1.5

13.6 1.6

13.7 1.6

13.8 1.8

13.9 1.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

336.3 1.5

337.8 1.6

339.3 1.7

340.8 1.7

342.4 1.8

343.9 1.8

345.6 1.8

347.4 1.9

349.1 2

351.1 2.1

353.2 2.2

355.5 2.4

358.1 2.6

360.7 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

151.1 0.3

151.6 0.8

152.1 0.6

152.7 1.3

153.2 1.4

153.8 1.4

154.4 1.5

154.9 1.5

155.6 1.5

156.3 1.6

157 1.7

157.7 1.8

158.3 1.8

159.1 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.2

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

1867 1663 204

1962 1729 234

2268 1810 458

2558 1889 669

2834 1935 899

3210 2047 1162

3679 2254 1426

4114 2439 1676

4574 2642 1932

4892 2864 2028

5147 3039 2108

5198 3045 2153

5243 3049 2194

5287 3064 2224

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.5 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income level is the third lowest of the twelve metros at $30,900. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $41,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, the highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,903.78 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 131,340 in December of 2006 (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).

• An unemployment rate of 9.7% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 118,600 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,725 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.7 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. However, unemployment rate is estimated to be 8.3 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 10.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and Education and Health Service sector with 5.7 percent and 3.1 percent annual growth rate, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience negative growth, with an average annual rate of -1.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s City to consider new Publix plaza proposal

• On March 19 the Ocala City Council will consider approving an amended developer’s agreement for a three-phase project to include a Publix grocery store across from Trinity Catholic High School on the former Stolen Hours Farm property. • The council approved the conceptual plan in 2011 for the project that sits on a 71.47-acre site at the northeast corner of Southwest 27th Avenue and Southwest 42nd Street.

• The first phase, which is 84,000-square-foot of commercial development, includes building a Publix to front on Southwest 42nd Street Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

and developing three out parcels to front on Southwest 27th Avenue.

• Because the property is on a steep incline, a number of El Dorado residents had raised concerns that water could cascade and flood areas of the neighborhood already susceptible to flooding. Source: Ocala.com, March 17, 2013

Cafeteria soon will become law office

• The Piccadilly Cafeteria on East Silver Springs Boulevard in Ocala closed on Sunday, Aug. 14, 2011. Randy Klein and law partner Fred Roberts Jr. bought the former restaurant last month through their jointly owned company KR1602, LLC.

• The plan is to divide the former 10,000-squarefoot Piccadilly restaurant in half and convert the back, which used to be the kitchen, into new law offices. Klein said the front of the business will be rented and could again be a restaurant again if that’s what the renters wanted to do with their share of the building. • Piccadilly Restaurants LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in September 2012 after it couldn’t come to terms with its debt holder.

Source: Ocala.com, March 10, 2013

Hiers-Baxley hosts lunch, raises nearly $1,000 for Veterans Council • On the fourth Friday of every month (except May, November and December), the longtime Marion County funeral company, HiersBaxley, hosts a catered picnic at its picturesque Highland Memorial Park in Northeast Ocala. • The free events are open to the public. Donations of any amount are welcomed and given directly to the featured charity of the month. • To date, nearly $27,000 has been raised for various local charities.

• In January, Hiers-Baxley kicked off 2013 with a charity picnic to benefit the Ocala-Marion County Veterans Council. Nearly 150 people attended, and donations totaled $910. 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Source: Ocala.com, February 17, 2013

Silver Springs’ restoration depends on money from Palace • While the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has identified $6.3 million worth of work it would like to do at Silver Springs, any efforts to reverse the deterioration at the springs will have to come from the $4 million Palace agreed to pay the state to buy out its lease, according to a department spokesman.

• The $6.3 million wish list drawn up by the state is bound by the fiscal reality of the state budget and what Palace is willing to dole out, DEP press secretary Pat Gillespie suggested.

• Gillespie added that Gov. Rick Scott’s proposed budget for 2014 contains $19 million for improvements at all of Florida’s state parks — a network of about 170 parks, trails and recreation areas. • The bulk of Palace’s funding will finance a park wide face-lift, spent removing and replacing or reworking buildings and infrastructure that time and a lack of attention have turned into eyesores. Source: Ocala.com, March 17, 2013

UF/IFAS Marion County Master Gardeners Hold Spring Festival • The annual Spring Festival takes place March 9 and March 10 at UF/IFAS Marion County Extension Service, 2232 NE Jacksonville Road, Ocala. • There were approximately 70 vendors in 130 vendor booth spaces. • This year the Master Gardeners added a 4,800-square-foot Kids Gardening Zone.

• Marion County 4-H members operate a tote service at the event to help haul purchases to a pick-up area. They work for tips. Most of them do this every year and save their money to purchase supplies for 4-H projects, college, or even a car. Source: Ocala.com, February 1, 2013

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0

6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

0.8

6500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Ocala Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.5 3.6 3.7 6.8

9.9 -5.4 3.4 6.6

10.4 4.9 3.3 7.1

10.9 4.3 3.4 7.5

11.3 3.9 3.5 7.8

11.7 4.0 3.8 8.0

12.4 5.9 4.0 8.5

13.2 5.9 4.2 9.0

14.0 6.3 4.4 9.6

9.6 2.8

9.7 0.3

9.1 -5.5

9.4 2.9

9.6 1.8

9.8 2.1

10.0 3.0

10.5 4.5

10.9 4.3

11.5 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

31.2 29.5

31.9 29.3

30.1 27.6

31.5 28.4

32.7 28.7

33.7 29.1

34.7 29.7

36.2 30.5

37.6 31.2

39.1 32.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.9 1.2

35.9 2.8

36.0 0.3

36.3 0.9

37.1 2.1

37.9 2.3

39.7 4.6

40.8 2.9

42.0 2.9

43.3 3.0

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

106.8 0.5

102.0 -4.5

93.1 -8.7

90.9 -2.4

90.3 -0.7

91.7 1.6

94.3 2.8

96.6 2.4

99.3 2.8

102.0 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -3.1

8.3 -13.8

6.7 -19.4

6.4 -3.7

6.4 0.4

6.7 3.7

6.8 1.8

6.9 1.4

7.0 2.0

7.1 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

97.2 0.9

93.7 -3.6

86.5 -7.7

84.5 -2.3

83.9 -0.8

85.0 1.4

87.5 2.8

89.7 2.5

92.2 2.9

94.9 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.9

7.3 -24.4

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.4 -5.9

5.6 3.9

6.1 9.6

7.0 15.1

7.8 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.4

20.5 -9.7

20.1 -1.9

20.6 2.4

21.2 3.1

21.9 2.9

22.1 1.2

22.5 1.5

23.0 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.8 2.9

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.4

3.3 14.7 2.6

3.4 14.8 3.1

3.5 15.0 3.2

3.6 15.2 3.3

3.6 15.4 3.4

3.7 15.6 3.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 -7.2

1.9 -2.9

1.7 -12.0

1.5 -9.4

1.6 3.4

1.5 -5.8

1.5 2.6

1.5 0.2

1.5 1.5

1.6 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.0 3.6

5.9 -0.5

5.1 -13.4

4.2 -19.1

4.1 -0.4

4.3 3.8

4.4 2.0

4.4 1.1

4.4 0.0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 -8.3

8.2 -4.5

7.7 -5.0

7.4 -4.7

7.4 -0.3

7.9 7.4

8.2 3.6

8.7 6.9

9.4 6.9

9.9 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 4.7

13.5 1.6

12.9 -4.4

13.4 4.2

13.8 2.7

14.5 4.8

15.1 4.5

15.6 2.9

15.9 2.1

16.3 2.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 9.4

10.4 -1.9

10.0 -3.9

10.1 0.9

10.1 0.5

10.3 2.2

10.7 3.3

10.9 1.6

11.0 1.3

11.0 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.5

3.6 -7.7

3.7 1.6

3.5 -5.4

3.1 -10.0

3.2 2.8

3.3 1.3

3.3 0.6

3.3 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.0

0.7 2.4

0.7 1.0

0.9 27.6

0.7 -24.2

0.7 0.0

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -4.4

0.6 -3.3

0.6 0.6

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.2

16.9 0.3

16.4 -3.0

16.3 -0.7

16.3 0.2

16.5 0.8

16.6 1.0

16.9 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.8 0.3

331.1 0.1

332.9 0.5

335.5 0.8

338.8 1.0

343.7 1.5

350.4 2.0

358.2 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

137.7 3.8

138.3 0.5

135.0 -2.4

134.2 -0.6

134.0 -0.1

132.9 -0.8

131.8 -0.9

131.1 -0.5

131.0 0.0

131.7 0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

7.8

12.5

13.4

12.3

10.1

8.9

8.5

8.0

7.8

3164.1 2821.1 343.0

1211.1 1189.4 22.0

408.5 391.1 17.0

494.5 492.2 2.0

359.3 356.2 3.0

419.7 417.5 2.0

980.2 952.3 28.0

2396.5 2270.7 126.0

3609.0 3413.1 196.0

3787.3 3585.0 202.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.5 4.1 3.7 7.8

11.7 4.3 3.7 7.9

11.8 4.8 3.8 8

12 2.9 3.8 8.1

12.2 6.2 3.9 8.3

12.4 5.8 3.9 8.4

12.5 5.9 4 8.5

12.7 5.8 4 8.6

12.9 5.5 4.1 8.8

13.1 5.8 4.2 8.9

13.3 5.9 4.2 9

13.5 6.2 4.3 9.2

13.7 6.2 4.4 9.3

13.9 6.3 4.4 9.5

9.9 3

10 3.1

10.1 3.8

10.2 2

10.4 5

10.4 4.4

10.5 4.3

10.6 4.3

10.8 4

10.9 4.3

11 4.4

11.1 4.5

11.3 4.6

11.4 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.1 29.3

34.5 29.6

34.9 29.8

35.2 30

35.8 30.3

36.1 30.5

36.4 30.6

36.7 30.7

37.1 31

37.4 31.2

37.7 31.3

38.1 31.5

38.6 31.7

38.9 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.3 4.5

39.5 4.9

39.8 5.2

40.1 3.7

40.4 2.8

40.7 3

41 3

41.3 3

41.6 2.9

41.9 2.9

42.2 2.9

42.5 2.9

42.8 3

43.2 3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

93.4 2.8

94 2.7

94.5 2.7

95.1 2.8

95.7 2.4

96.3 2.4

96.8 2.4

97.4 2.5

98.1 2.5

98.9 2.7

99.7 2.9

100.4 3.1

101.1 3

101.7 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 2.7

6.8 1.6

6.8 2.2

6.8 0.5

6.8 0.7

6.9 1

6.9 1.6

6.9 2.2

7 2

7 2.1

7 1.9

7.1 1.9

7.1 1.5

7.1 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

86.6 2.8

87.2 2.8

87.7 2.8

88.3 2.9

88.9 2.6

89.4 2.5

89.9 2.5

90.5 2.5

91.1 2.5

91.9 2.7

92.6 3

93.4 3.2

94 3.2

94.6 2.9

5.4 1.4

5.5 4

5.6 4.8

5.7 5.3

5.8 6.6

6 8.4

6.2 10.4

6.4 12.7

6.6 14.2

6.9 15.1

7.2 15.8

7.4 15.4

7.6 14.2

7.7 12.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 2.9

21.8 2.4

21.9 3

22 3.3

22.1 1.7

22.1 1.2

22.1 1.1

22.2 0.9

22.3 0.9

22.4 1.2

22.5 1.8

22.7 2.1

22.8 2.4

22.9 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 14.9 3.2

3.5 15 3.2

3.5 15.1 3.3

3.6 15.2 3.3

3.6 15.2 3.4

3.6 15.3 3.4

3.7 15.4 3.4

3.7 15.5 3.5

3.7 15.6 3.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 -0.4

1.5 6.1

1.5 1

1.5 4.1

1.5 1.7

1.5 0.2

1.5 -0.5

1.5 0.1

1.5 1.4

1.5 2.1

1.6 2.4

1.6 2.6

1.6 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 5.3

4.3 5.2

4.3 2.7

4.3 2.1

4.3 1.7

4.4 2.3

4.4 2.2

4.4 1.8

4.4 1.7

4.4 1.3

4.4 1

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.4

4.4 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8 4.1

8.1 1.4

8.2 4

8.4 5

8.5 6.5

8.7 7.2

8.8 7.4

8.9 6.5

9.1 6.4

9.3 6.6

9.4 7.1

9.6 7.5

9.7 6.9

9.8 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15 4.8

15.1 5.1

15.2 4.5

15.3 3.8

15.4 3.1

15.5 3.1

15.6 2.7

15.7 2.7

15.7 2

15.8 2

15.9 2.1

16 2.2

16.1 2.5

16.3 2.7

10.6 3

10.7 4.3

10.7 3.4

10.8 2.5

10.8 2.2

10.8 1.7

10.9 1.4

10.9 1.2

11 1.4

11 1.5

11 1.4

11 1.1

11 0.5

11 0.2

3.2 1.7

3.2 3.7

3.2 3.9

3.3 1.7

3.3 1.8

3.3 1.5

3.3 1.2

3.3 0.7

3.3 0.6

3.3 0.5

3.3 0.9

3.3 1

3.3 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -0.8

0.7 1.5

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -2.5

0.7 -2.9

0.7 -6.5

0.7 -5.5

0.6 -3.8

0.6 -3.5

0.6 -3.2

0.6 -2.9

0.7 0.5

0.6 0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 0.7

16.3 -0.1

16.3 -0.6

16.4 0.7

16.4 0.9

16.4 0.8

16.5 0.7

16.6 0.9

16.6 1.1

16.7 1.1

16.8 1.3

16.8 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

337.3 0.9

338.2 0.9

339.3 1

340.4 1.1

341.6 1.3

342.9 1.4

344.4 1.5

346 1.6

347.7 1.8

349.5 1.9

351.3 2

353.2 2.1

355.2 2.2

357.2 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

132.1 -0.9

131.8 -0.4

131.6 -1.5

131.4 -0.8

131.2 -0.7

131.1 -0.6

131 -0.5

130.9 -0.4

130.9 -0.3

130.9 -0.1

131.1 0.1

131.2 0.2

131.3 0.3

131.5 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.9

8.8

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

580 571 9

812 805 7

1090 1057 33

1439 1377 62

1775 1691 85

2240 2127 113

2610 2468 142

2961 2797 164

3345 3153 192

3581 3384 197

3752 3555 197

3758 3561 197

3769 3569 200

3774 3573 200

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Predators arena football team. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.3 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to be $32,000. Average annual wage growth will be 2.2 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of $46,000. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 2.3 percent, the highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 104,173.15 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.7 percent annually. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.5 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 8.9 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3 percent, and the Education and Health Services sector at 3.2 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -0.7 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,021,183,903 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,109,000 in April 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to about 98,701 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,000 Orange County Public Schools – 20,949 Advent Health System (Florida Hospital) – 16,771 Universal Orlando Resort – 16,000 Orlando Health – 13,666 UPS – 12,680 University of Central Florida – 10,386 Lockheed Martin Corp. – 9,000 Orange County Government – 7,654 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 7,000

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Book of Lists 2012 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Orange County libraries now offer free online high-tech courses

• Orange County Public Library officials launched a “DIY Learning Page” on the library’s website. • Library cardholders in good standing can register a free account with Treehouse, a local Orlando software instruction firm, to gain access to more than 650 videos, quizzes, and code challenges through classes in HTML, CSS3, Java Script, PHP, Ruby on Rails, and iOS and Android app building.

• Users can take courses at home or at library computers. Cardholders can also access Lynda.com video tutorials, featuring experts in Photoshop, Illustrator, web design, and digital video and audio, at kiosks located inside any of the 15 Orange County libraries. Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 20, 2013

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Orange leaders put sick-time measure to voters

• Obeying a judicial ruling, the Orange County Board of Commissioners voted 6-1 to place a sicktime referendum on the primary ballot in August 2014.

• If approved, the measure would require employers to provide paid time off to workers who are ill or caring for a sick family member, with one hour of sick time for every 37 hours worked, to a maximum of 56 hours annually. Employers with fewer than 15 workers would not have to provide sick pay but could not penalize workers who took unpaid time off for being sick. • Critics such as Walt Disney World and Darden Restaurants argue that the measure will hurt the economy and cause job losses. Proponents argue that other communities with such measures have not had such effects and that it would provide families with more job security and reduce healthcare costs.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 27, 2013

UCF to receive $1.4 million grant to open entrepreneurial center

• This summer, the University of Central Florida will open the Blackstone LaunchPad, an entrepreneurial center modeled off a similar program at the University of Miami. • Blackstone Charitable Foundation is granting UCF $1.4 million to develop and staff the center. UCF will be the tenth location and the second in Florida of such a center that is being replicated across the country.

U.S. deal with Saudis means $253 million for Lockheed’s training unit

• Lockheed Martin Corp. received a $253 million deal to build fighter-jet simulators and other training systems for Saudi Arabia’s armed forces.

• The work will be performed at Lockheed’s Training Solutions unit in Orlando and operated in Akron, Ohio. • Delivery of the systems will take place through 2020. Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 11, 2013

Google acquires Celebration software firm for $125 million

• Google acquired Celebration-based software company Channel Intelligence for $125 million cash.

• Channel Intelligence develops technology that streamlines the online-buying process, giving Google a boost in an e-commerce strategy against eBay and Amazon. • Officials at ICG Group, a venture capital firm that has supported Channel Intelligence, say the company tracks nearly 15 percent of U.S. online transactions and drives $2 billion annually in referred sales online.

• Both Channel Intelligence and Google declined to comment on how many were employed at Channel Intelligence or the post-acquisition status of the workers. Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 20, 2013

• UCF students will be able to meet with consultants for free to get feedback on their ideas, develop skills, and be paired with industry mentors. Blackstone estimates that the UCF LaunchPad could generate 300 companies and 780 jobs after five years. Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 11, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

110000.0

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1100.0

6.0%

1050.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0%

950.0

-3.0%

900.0

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

850.0

1.4

90000.0

8.0%

1150.0

1.2

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

73.4 5.0 45.5 27.9

75.1 2.3 45.2 29.9

70.3 -6.4 42.1 28.2

73.6 4.7 42.5 31.1

77.2 4.8 44.0 33.2

80.2 3.9 45.8 34.4

82.5 2.9 47.2 35.3

87.6 6.1 49.8 37.8

92.9 6.0 52.6 40.2

98.4 6.0 55.4 43.0

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.6 2.2

68.9 -0.9

64.5 -6.4

66.3 2.7

67.8 2.3

69.2 2.1

70.6 1.9

73.9 4.7

77.2 4.5

80.5 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.6 33.8

35.9 33.0

33.2 30.5

34.3 30.9

35.4 31.1

36.0 31.1

36.2 30.9

37.6 31.7

38.9 32.3

40.3 33.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.6 2.2

42.0 0.9

41.6 -0.8

42.3 1.5

43.1 2.0

43.8 1.6

44.3 1.2

45.5 2.6

46.6 2.5

47.8 2.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1091.0 2.5

1072.8 -1.7

1006.0 -6.2

1001.3 -0.5

1015.1 1.4

1039.8 2.4

1059.8 1.9

1089.9 2.8

1125.4 3.3

1156.0 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.6

38.0 -1.8

38.0 0.1

38.0 -0.1

37.7 -0.6

38.3 1.6

39.1 2.1

39.6 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1046.4 2.7

1030.0 -1.6

967.3 -6.1

963.3 -0.4

977.0 1.4

1001.8 2.5

1022.1 2.0

1051.6 2.9

1086.3 3.3

1116.4 2.8

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25.0

47.7 -12.5

45.2 -5.2

45.9 1.4

46.6 1.7

50.5 8.2

57.9 14.8

64.3 11.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

204.0 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186.0 -7.4

186.0 0.0

192.0 3.2

197.5 2.9

201.3 1.9

204.9 1.8

209.4 2.2

215.0 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.2 123.7 33.0

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.5 123.3 30.2

39.0 127.5 31.0

39.2 129.1 32.0

40.5 130.8 33.2

42.0 132.8 34.6

43.5 134.8 36.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 3.7

26.2 -1.8

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4.0

24.0 0.9

23.6 -1.8

23.4 -0.7

23.6 0.9

24.1 1.9

24.8 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

70.8 1.1

69.5 -1.8

65.8 -5.3

65.1 -1.1

65.9 1.1

66.8 1.5

66.9 0.1

67.8 1.4

68.6 1.2

68.9 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

180.5 4.8

176.4 -2.2

164.1 -7.0

161.1 -1.8

161.9 0.5

169.4 4.6

173.8 2.6

186.0 7.0

199.0 7.0

208.1 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.4 1.7

120.9 2.0

123.5 2.2

127.9 3.5

131.7 3.0

135.7 3.0

139.6 2.8

144.9 3.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

193.6 3.6

199.5 3.1

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

203.5 4.1

210.3 3.3

217.3 3.3

220.4 1.4

223.3 1.3

223.8 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48.0 -6.7

47.5 -1.0

46.0 -3.2

44.4 -3.5

44.8 0.9

45.4 1.4

45.9 1.1

46.6 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 0.3

11.8 2.7

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.8

12.0 -6.0

12.3 2.6

12.3 0.3

12.2 -1.3

12.0 -1.3

12.0 -0.3

105.5 3.4

105.2 -0.3

103.6 -1.5

102.9 -0.7

103.1 0.2

103.8 0.6

103.9 0.2

105.0 1.0

106.4 1.3

108.1 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2061.0 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116.1 1.2

2146.0 1.4

2182.0 1.7

2230.0 2.2

2280.5 2.3

2329.9 2.2

2385.0 2.4

2441.1 2.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1102.6 5.1

1120.2 1.6

1104.6 -1.4

1113.0 0.8

1122.4 0.9

1130.4 0.7

1155.0 2.2

1176.1 1.8

1199.8 2.0

1224.2 2.0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.9

10.3

11.2

10.4

8.6

7.5

6.8

6.0

5.6

18018.7 12621.9 5397.0

10403.5 5568.4 4835.0

4487.6 3762.8 725.0

5007.0 4412.1 595.0

5702.9 4480.1 1223.0

10655.4 7389.0 3266.0

15214.9 9940.2 5275.0

19155.5 13124.6 6031.0

23339.9 17243.2 6097.0

24802.2 18261.1 6541.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

80.7 2 46.4 34.4

81.9 2.9 46.8 35.1

83.1 3.8 47.5 35.6

84.3 3 48.1 36.2

85.9 6.4 48.8 37.1

87 6.2 49.5 37.5

88.1 6 50.1 38

89.3 5.9 50.7 38.6

90.9 5.8 51.5 39.4

92.2 6 52.3 39.9

93.5 6.1 53 40.5

94.8 6.1 53.7 41

96.4 6.1 54.5 42

97.7 5.9 55.1 42.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.3 0.9

70.2 1.8

71 2.8

71.8 2.1

72.9 5.1

73.5 4.7

74.2 4.5

74.9 4.4

76 4.3

76.8 4.5

77.6 4.6

78.3 4.5

79.4 4.5

80.1 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.7 30.6

36 30.8

36.3 31

36.7 31.2

37.2 31.5

37.4 31.6

37.7 31.8

38 31.9

38.5 32.1

38.8 32.3

39.1 32.4

39.4 32.5

39.8 32.8

40.1 32.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44 0.1

44.1 1.1

44.5 1.8

44.8 1.8

45.1 2.5

45.4 2.7

45.6 2.5

45.9 2.4

46.2 2.4

46.5 2.5

46.7 2.5

47 2.5

47.3 2.5

47.6 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1050.3 1.7

1055.8 1.8

1062.3 1.9

1070.8 2.3

1078.5 2.7

1086.3 2.9

1093.6 2.9

1101.5 2.9

1111.2 3

1121 3.2

1130.4 3.4

1139 3.4

1146.3 3.2

1152.5 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.6 -1.6

37.7 -1.2

37.8 -0.1

37.8 0.3

38 1

38.2 1.3

38.4 1.7

38.6 2.3

38.9 2.2

39.1 2.2

39.2 1.9

39.4 1.9

39.5 1.6

39.6 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1012.7 1.8

1018 1.9

1024.5 2

1033 2.3

1040.4 2.7

1048 2.9

1055.1 3

1062.9 2.9

1072.4 3.1

1082 3.2

1091.2 3.4

1099.7 3.5

1106.8 3.2

1112.9 2.9

45.8 1

46.3 4.2

46.9 1.7

47.5 0.2

48.4 5.5

49.7 7.3

51.2 9.1

52.7 10.9

54.7 13

56.9 14.4

59.1 15.6

61.1 15.9

62.6 14.5

63.8 12.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

199.5 1.6

200.8 1.7

201.7 1.9

203 2.5

203.6 2

204.4 1.8

205.3 1.8

206.5 1.7

207.2 1.8

208.5 2

210.2 2.4

211.9 2.6

213 2.8

214.3 2.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

38.8 128.4 31.6

39 128.9 31.8

39.4 129.3 32.2

39.8 129.7 32.5

40.1 130.6 32.8

40.3 130.7 33.1

40.6 130.7 33.4

41 131 33.7

41.4 131.9 34

41.8 132.4 34.4

42.2 133.1 34.7

42.6 133.9 35.2

43 134.1 35.5

43.3 134.5 35.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 -2.8

23.4 -1.3

23.5 -0.1

23.7 1.5

23.7 2.4

23.6 1

23.5 0.3

23.7 0.1

23.9 0.7

24 1.9

24.1 2.5

24.3 2.6

24.5 2.6

24.7 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

66.8 0.5

66.8 -0.2

66.9 -0.4

67.2 0.7

67.4 0.9

67.8 1.5

68 1.6

68.2 1.4

68.4 1.5

68.6 1.3

68.8 1.1

68.8 0.8

68.8 0.6

68.7 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

170.8 1.6

172.1 1.6

174.4 2.7

177.8 4.4

181.1 6

184.5 7.2

187.8 7.7

190.6 7.2

194 7.1

197.6 7.1

200.9 7

203.4 6.7

205.2 5.8

207 4.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

130.5 3.9

131.1 2.3

132.2 2.7

133 3

134.5 3.1

135.5 3.3

136.1 2.9

136.8 2.8

137.7 2.4

139 2.6

140.2 3

141.4 3.4

142.8 3.7

144.3 3.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

215.7 3.7

216.9 3.8

217.7 3.3

218.9 2.5

219.7 1.8

220.2 1.5

220.5 1.3

221.3 1.1

222.8 1.4

223.3 1.4

223.4 1.3

223.8 1.1

224 0.5

223.7 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 0.7

44.7 0.8

44.9 0.8

45.1 1.3

45.2 1.7

45.4 1.5

45.5 1.4

45.6 1

45.7 1

45.8 1

46 1

46.1 1.3

46.3 1.4

46.5 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 1

12.2 -0.3

12.4 0.8

12.3 -0.4

12.3 -0.9

12.2 -0.1

12.2 -2.1

12.1 -2

12 -1.8

12 -1.5

12 -1.2

12 -0.9

12 -0.5

12 -0.4

103.5 -0.7

103.8 0.3

104.1 0.3

104.4 0.8

104.6 1

104.8 1

105.1 1

105.5 1.1

105.8 1.2

106.2 1.3

106.6 1.4

107 1.5

107.5 1.6

107.9 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2261.9 2.3

2274.6 2.3

2286.8 2.3

2298.7 2.2

2310.8 2.2

2323.1 2.1

2336.1 2.2

2349.6 2.2

2363.6 2.3

2377.9 2.4

2392.2 2.4

2406.3 2.4

2420.3 2.4

2434.2 2.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1147.5 2.2

1152.1 2.8

1157.4 2.1

1163 1.6

1168.3 1.8

1173.5 1.9

1178.7 1.8

1183.7 1.8

1189.7 1.8

1196.5 2

1203.5 2.1

1209.6 2.2

1215.4 2.2

1221.2 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

13955 9374 4580

14527 9632 4894

15593 10057 5536

16785 10698 6088

17634 11412 6222

18711 12667 6044

19682 13714 5968

20595 14706 5889

21829 15815 6015

23070 17050 6019

24131 18017 6114

24330 18091 6238

24546 18158 6388

24705 18216 6490

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.6 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $35,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $51,500, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17,236.13 million dollars.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 267,597 in December of 2011 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.1% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,662 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County School Board- 9,140 • Health First Employees - 6,350

• Harris Corporation Employees - 6,130

• United Space Alliance, LLC Employees – 3,830 • Brevard County Board of County Comm. – 2,390 • Department of Defense - 2260

• Health Management Associates – 2,220 • NASA – 2,210

• Brevard Community College – 1,580

• Rockwell Collins, Inc. Employees - 1,500 • DRS INC – 1,440

• Northrup Grumman – 1,400

• Florida Institute of Technology – 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.0 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 7.2 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 10.2 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest annual growth rate at 4.8 percent, followed by the Education and Health Services sector at 2.0 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -2.1 percent annually.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Bonefish Grill, Chipotle Mexican Grill coming to Viera • Bonefish Grill, owned by the Tampa-based restaurant company that also operates Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill, is opening its second Brevard County restaurant, this one at The Avenue Viera.

• Bonefish opened its first Brevard location on Merritt Island last November. The company was founded 13 years ago. • Chipotle Mexican Grill will open its first Brevard County location on March 26 at 2322 Harnett Drive, just south of The Avenue Viera and north of Walmart. • The 2,385-square-foot restaurant features seating for about 90 guests and will be open daily from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. The restaurant

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

opening will bring approximately 30 new jobs to Viera.

• The company also is opening a restaurant in West Melbourne, across from Melbourne Square mall. Source: Floridatoday.com, March 15, 2013

Brevard officials authorize extension of impact fees moratorium

• Brevard County commissioners decided on March 14 against reinstating impact fees on commercial and residential construction projects that Realtors and developers told them would put their industry back into a tailspin. • Commissioners unanimously authorized county staff to prepare legislation to extend a moratorium on transportation impact fees until the end of 2014. • The county since March 2009 has had a moratorium on those fees, which previously were $4,353 for a single-family home. The fees can reach tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for large commercial projects. • Since 2009, the amount of fees waived has totaled $21.7 million, including $11.5 million for residential projects and $10.2 million for commercial projects.

Source: Floridatoday.com, March 14, 2013

New aerospace company planning to locate in Melbourne

• A subsidiary of a Brazilian aviation company has plans to come to Melbourne International Airport, a project expected to create at least 50 jobs during the next three years.

• The investment by Archo Solutions Engineering USA Corp. could also lead to at least 36 spinoff jobs, representing a total annual payroll of $3.87 million.

• The Melbourne Airport Authority must approve the agreement with Archo. • Avila credited officials at the airport, the Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast, and others with creating a supportive environment that convinced Archo 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

to choose Melbourne over other suitors. Source: Floridatoday.com, March 18, 2013

Brevard School Board unanimously approves $30 million in cuts

• Brevard School Board members unanimously approved a $30 million list of cuts with the caveat that it’s a “living document” and can be adjusted if additional state money comes in next school year. • Before it ended, Superintendent Brian Binggeli told officials they were putting together a group of community members – roughly eight or nine people – to look “strategically” at the district and its policies. • Board Member Andy Ziegler brought up the possibility of instituting a fee-based corridor busing proposal.

• Chair Barbara Murray suggested, when making a motion, to extend authority to adjust the list pending new revenue that would come from the state. Source: Floridatoday.com, March 18, 2013

Cocoa Beach prefers to avoid rowdiness of other locations during Spring Break • Cocoa Beach has about 11,000 residents and receives, by one estimate, about 30,000 extra visitors seeking a much quieter spring break.

• Spring break brings a very welcome financial boost to Brevard County. Space Coast Office of Tourism executive director Rob Varley doesn’t have current figures, but he estimates the spring break period creates about 20 percent of Brevard’s annual income from tourism.

• Cocoa Beach City Manager Bob Majka believes the city’s reputation is more valuable in the long run. • “Being known as a spring-break destination can restrict your ability to sell yourself as a familyoriented place,” said Majka, who brings 17 years in fire and emergency services as well as six years’ experience as assistant manager in Bay County to his current position. Source: Floridatoday.com, March 16, 2013

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Me l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

(Thousands)

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.4 3.5 9.5 11.0

19.5 -4.5 9.2 10.3

19.9 2.2 9.3 10.7

20.7 3.6 9.3 11.3

21.2 2.7 9.5 11.7

21.7 2.4 9.9 11.9

22.8 5.1 10.4 12.5

24.0 5.3 10.9 13.1

25.4 5.8 11.5 13.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 1.8

18.8 0.2

17.9 -4.5

18.0 0.2

18.2 1.2

18.3 0.9

18.6 1.4

19.3 3.6

20.0 3.7

20.8 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.6 34.7

37.7 34.6

36.0 33.0

36.7 33.1

37.9 33.3

38.7 33.5

39.4 33.7

41.0 34.6

42.6 35.4

44.4 36.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 2.5

45.1 2.9

46.1 2.1

47.0 1.9

47.3 0.7

48.0 1.4

49.2 2.6

50.7 3.1

52.2 2.9

53.8 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

213.7 -1.2

207.3 -3.0

196.7 -5.1

194.9 -0.9

194.6 -0.1

195.2 0.3

197.8 1.3

201.6 2.0

206.6 2.5

211.5 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8.0

20.5 -6.0

20.8 1.1

20.9 0.8

20.8 -0.5

21.1 1.4

21.5 1.7

21.8 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

189.6 -1.1

183.6 -3.2

174.8 -4.8

174.3 -0.3

173.9 -0.3

174.3 0.2

176.9 1.5

180.5 2.0

185.1 2.5

189.7 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 -15.0

13.0 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.2 -5.8

8.4 2.7

8.8 5.2

9.6 9.2

11.1 15.1

12.3 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.8

33.0 -6.9

32.7 -1.0

34.0 4.1

34.6 1.5

34.8 0.7

34.9 0.3

35.2 0.9

35.9 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.6 28.0 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.0 24.6 3.0

5.2 25.1 3.8

5.1 25.5 4.0

5.2 25.5 4.1

5.4 25.6 4.2

5.6 25.8 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -3.0

2.5 2.7

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.9

2.2 -9.0

2.1 -3.4

2.1 0.0

2.1 1.4

2.2 3.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.6

7.5 -1.4

7.6 1.4

7.6 0.0

7.7 1.5

7.8 0.9

7.8 -0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.8 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.5 0.6

31.6 -2.8

29.6 -6.5

30.2 2.1

32.0 6.0

34.0 6.3

35.7 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 4.0

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.8

32.2 3.3

32.6 1.1

32.7 0.4

33.4 2.0

34.1 2.1

34.6 1.6

35.5 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4.1

21.3 -4.0

21.2 -0.5

21.5 1.6

23.0 6.5

23.6 2.8

23.7 0.4

23.8 0.4

23.7 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.0 -1.1

7.9 -1.5

7.4 -5.7

7.6 2.7

7.8 2.9

8.0 2.5

8.2 1.7

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.2

8.3 0.7

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.3

6.4 -5.3

6.2 -2.3

6.1 -2.9

5.9 -2.0

5.8 -2.0

5.7 -1.6

22.8 1.0

22.8 0.0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.9

22.0 -2.8

22.1 0.5

22.2 0.5

22.2 0.2

22.4 0.6

22.6 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.3 0.0

543.0 0.1

544.8 0.3

547.7 0.5

551.4 0.7

556.9 1.0

564.5 1.4

572.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

266.7 1.6

268.9 0.9

266.3 -1.0

266.7 0.1

267.7 0.4

267.1 -0.2

265.5 -0.6

264.9 -0.2

265.1 0.1

266.1 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

6.5

10.2

11.1

9.4

8.0

7.4

6.8

6.6

2861.6 2219.2 642.0

1668.2 1283.4 385.0

973.9 868.7 105.0

1083.9 995.1 89.0

962.7 843.0 120.0

1142.9 1137.6 5.0

1878.4 1769.2 109.0

3587.4 3028.6 559.0

5105.6 4135.6 970.0

5405.5 4349.0 1056.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.4 2.1 9.7 11.7

21.6 2.5 9.8 11.8

21.9 3.3 9.9 11.9

22.1 1.8 10.1 12

22.5 5.2 10.2 12.3

22.7 5.1 10.3 12.4

22.9 5 10.4 12.5

23.2 5 10.6 12.6

23.6 4.9 10.7 12.9

23.9 5.2 10.9 13

24.2 5.4 11 13.2

24.5 5.7 11.2 13.4

24.9 5.7 11.3 13.6

25.3 5.7 11.5 13.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 1

18.5 1.4

18.7 2.3

18.8 0.9

19.1 4

19.2 3.6

19.3 3.5

19.5 3.5

19.7 3.3

19.9 3.7

20.1 3.9

20.3 4

20.5 4.1

20.7 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.9 33.4

39.2 33.6

39.6 33.8

39.9 34

40.6 34.4

40.8 34.5

41.1 34.6

41.5 34.8

42 35.1

42.4 35.3

42.8 35.5

43.2 35.7

43.8 36

44.2 36.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.7 1.9

48.9 2.5

49.4 3.3

49.8 2.8

50.2 2.9

50.5 3.3

50.9 3

51.3 3

51.6 2.9

52 2.9

52.4 2.9

52.8 3

53.2 3

53.6 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.6 1

197.3 1.3

198.1 1.5

199.1 1.4

200.2 1.9

201.1 1.9

202.1 2

203.1 2

204.4 2.1

205.9 2.4

207.4 2.6

208.8 2.8

209.9 2.7

210.9 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 -0.7

20.8 -0.5

20.9 -0.1

20.8 -0.7

21 1

21.1 1

21.2 1.4

21.3 1.9

21.3 1.6

21.4 1.8

21.5 1.8

21.6 1.8

21.7 1.7

21.8 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

175.8 1.2

176.5 1.5

177.2 1.7

178.2 1.6

179.2 1.9

180.1 2

180.9 2.1

181.9 2.1

183.1 2.1

184.4 2.4

185.9 2.7

187.2 2.9

188.2 2.8

189.1 2.5

8.6 6

8.7 7.1

8.9 4.2

9 3.5

9.2 6.2

9.4 8

9.7 10.1

10.1 12.4

10.5 14.1

10.9 15.1

11.3 15.8

11.7 15.4

12 14.2

12.2 12.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34.7 0

34.8 0.3

34.8 1.2

34.9 1.4

34.9 0.7

34.9 0.2

34.9 0.3

35 0.2

35 0.3

35.1 0.7

35.3 1.2

35.5 1.6

35.7 1.9

35.8 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 25.4 4

5.1 25.5 4

5.2 25.5 4

5.2 25.5 4.1

5.2 25.6 4.1

5.2 25.5 4.1

5.3 25.5 4.1

5.3 25.5 4.2

5.4 25.6 4.2

5.4 25.7 4.2

5.5 25.8 4.3

5.6 25.8 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 -0.9

2.1 0.3

2.1 0.5

2.1 0.1

2.1 1.2

2.1 0

2.1 -0.6

2.1 -0.7

2.1 -0.2

2.1 1.2

2.1 2.2

2.2 2.5

2.2 2.8

2.2 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 -1.2

7.6 -0.3

7.6 -0.1

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.6

7.8 1.8

7.8 1.5

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.1

7.8 0.8

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.3

7.8 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.7 0.2

30 1.5

30.3 3

30.8 3.7

31.3 5.4

31.8 6.2

32.2 6.5

32.6 5.8

33.1 5.7

33.7 6.1

34.3 6.5

34.9 7

35.2 6.3

35.5 5.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 1.9

33.3 1.8

33.5 2.3

33.6 1.9

33.9 2.3

34 2.2

34.1 1.9

34.3 2

34.4 1.4

34.6 1.5

34.7 1.7

34.9 1.8

35.1 2.1

35.4 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 3.5

23.6 3.7

23.6 2.6

23.7 1.2

23.7 0.8

23.7 0.3

23.7 0.2

23.7 0.1

23.8 0.5

23.8 0.6

23.8 0.5

23.7 0.2

23.7 -0.3

23.7 -0.5

8.2 2

8.2 1.9

8.2 2.2

8.2 1

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.2

8.2 0.1

8.2 0.4

8.3 0.4

8.3 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -1.8

6 -2.8

6 -3.3

6 -3.6

6 -2.1

6 -1

5.9 -2.3

5.9 -2.4

5.9 -2.5

5.8 -2.2

5.8 -1.8

5.8 -1.5

5.7 -1.8

5.7 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 0.9

22.2 0.4

22.2 0.2

22.2 0.5

22.2 0.2

22.2 0.1

22.3 0.2

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.5

22.4 0.7

22.4 0.8

22.5 1

22.6 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

549.8 0.6

550.8 0.6

551.9 0.7

553.2 0.8

554.5 0.9

556 0.9

557.7 1

559.5 1.1

561.4 1.2

563.5 1.4

565.4 1.4

567.5 1.4

569.4 1.4

571.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

265.8 -0.3

265.6 -0.6

265.4 -1.1

265.3 -0.4

265.1 -0.3

264.9 -0.2

264.8 -0.2

264.9 -0.1

265 0

265.2 0.1

265.3 0.2

265.5 0.2

265.8 0.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.4

7.3

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

1399 1374 25

1632 1627 5

2019 1884 135

2464 2192 272

2851 2488 363

3386 2901 485

3849 3221 628

4263 3504 759

4712 3811 901

5062 4105 957

5317 4318 999

5331 4309 1022

5357 4318 1039

5379 4332 1047

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.2 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to be $32,700. The average annual wage growth rate should be 2.4 percent, the third lowest of the studied areas, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $43,100. Population growth will be at a rate of 1.0 percent, the second lowest of the studied metro areas. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 13,337.19 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 206,530 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2012. This amounts to 16,239 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857 employees

• Federal Government – 7,162 employees

• Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • State Government – 5,253 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 employees

• Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,365 employees

Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent each year, the third lowest of the twelve MSAs, and the unemployment rate will average 6.4 percent, also the third lowest.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 9.1 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector and Education and Health Services sector follow with a growth rate of 4.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience negative growth with an average annual growth rate -2.1 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Scott Awards Santa Rosa, Escambia Counties $635,000 in Military Grants

• Santa Rosa County and Escambia County received $635,000 of the $2.6 million in military grants distributed throughout the state of Florida. • The three grants received were: a $250,000 grant to the Greater Pensacola Chamber to stimulate science and technology research, a $160,000 grant to the Santa Rosa County Commission to construct a fence separating Whiting Field Naval Air Station and Whiting Aviation Park, and a $225,000 grant to the Andrews Institute in Gulf Breeze to support wounded veterans.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 18, 2013 74

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

No Toll for Pensacola Bay Bridge

• The state of Florida will provide $670 million for transportation improvements including almost $600 million for a new toll-free bridge.

• Additionally, state money would go to add two lanes to U.S. 29, expand State Road 87 to four lanes, and improve the rail line in the Port of Pensacola. • Experts predict that over 15,000 jobs will be created in the Panhandle as a part of these projects.

• One of the biggest problems with Medicaid in Escambia County is to presence of “transfers in”—people who live in Mississippi and Alabama who come to Pensacola because of its numerous health care resources.

• One possible solution would be for Escambia County to forego receiving state-shared revenue for Medicaid in exchange for the state handling Medicaid costs. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 8, 2013

Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 31, 2013

Santa Rosa Getting $1.2 million Arena in East Milton

• The 205-by-300 feet arena will be built by A.E. New Jr. Inc. and it is expected to take six months to complete.

• The open-air, covered arena will be in East Milton Recreation Park and rodeos, equestrian, and other agriculture-related events are the most likely users. • The proposed facility hopes to complement Escambia County’s Equestrian Center.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, January, 23, 2013

Community Maritime Park $270,000 in the Red

• Beginning this year, Pensacola’s Community Redevelopment Agency must make $1.3 million yearly payments to the ECUA. • This debt came from the $58 million bonding debt on the Community Maritime Park project. • The park is home to the minor league baseball team, the Blue Wahoos.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 10, 2013

Escambia Taxpayers Hit with Medicaid Costs

• Local Medicaid costs have risen 118 percent over the last year. In 2012 Escambia taxpayers paid $2.33 million compared to $1.07 million in 2011.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

14000.0

8.0%

12500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11500.0

4.0%

11000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10500.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0% 0.0%

160.0

-2.0%

155.0

1.6

12000.0

6.0%

150.0

1.4

13500.0 13000.0

175.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.9 5.1 7.0 7.9

15.3 3.3 7.0 8.4

15.0 -2.2 6.8 8.2

15.5 3.4 6.9 8.6

16.4 5.3 7.1 9.2

16.9 3.2 7.3 9.6

17.3 2.4 7.6 9.7

18.1 4.8 7.9 10.2

18.9 4.6 8.2 10.7

19.9 5.0 8.6 11.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.4

14.1 0.1

13.8 -2.2

14.0 1.5

14.4 2.8

14.6 1.4

14.8 1.4

15.3 3.4

15.7 3.1

16.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.5 31.7

34.4 31.6

33.5 30.8

34.4 30.9

35.8 31.5

36.5 31.5

36.9 31.6

38.4 32.4

39.8 33.1

41.4 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.5 2.7

38.8 3.4

39.8 2.7

39.8 0.0

40.7 2.3

41.6 2.1

42.4 1.9

43.5 2.7

44.6 2.5

45.8 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

172.8 0.0

165.3 -4.3

157.2 -4.9

159.3 1.4

161.1 1.1

162.0 0.5

164.8 1.7

167.7 1.8

171.1 2.0

174.2 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.0 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.5 2.6

5.5 0.1

5.6 1.3

5.6 1.0

5.7 1.7

5.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.8 0.2

158.9 -4.2

151.8 -4.5

153.9 1.4

155.6 1.1

156.5 0.6

159.2 1.7

162.1 1.8

165.3 2.0

168.5 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 -4.0

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.8 -6.7

9.5 -3.4

9.8 2.6

10.6 8.7

12.1 14.3

13.4 10.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.8 1.3

30.0 0.9

31.0 3.4

31.1 0.3

31.3 0.6

31.7 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

4.9 20.8 4.1

4.9 21.1 4.0

5.0 21.9 4.0

5.1 21.9 4.1

5.2 22.0 4.2

5.3 22.1 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 -6.1

3.3 -2.7

3.0 -7.2

3.1 1.7

2.7 -12.5

2.3 -13.3

2.3 -1.2

2.3 -0.1

2.3 1.1

2.4 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 2.9

9.0 -3.6

8.8 -2.8

8.7 -1.1

8.7 0.0

8.9 2.9

9.3 3.8

9.4 1.3

9.4 0.4

9.4 -0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 -4.6

19.1 -7.0

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

21.1 7.1

21.5 2.2

21.5 -0.2

22.7 5.9

24.1 5.9

25.2 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 4.5

26.0 -1.6

25.7 -1.1

26.7 3.7

27.2 2.0

27.5 1.0

28.4 3.2

28.9 1.9

29.2 0.9

29.7 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.0 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.4

19.6 1.7

19.9 1.7

20.0 0.5

20.0 0.2

19.9 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -0.4

9.7 -4.9

9.1 -6.4

8.8 -3.3

8.6 -2.4

8.5 -0.4

8.5 0.3

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.0

8.6 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -2.6

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.3

6.9 -4.7

6.8 -0.9

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -1.6

6.4 -2.1

6.3 -2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1.0

22.3 -1.7

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -0.8

21.7 0.4

21.8 0.6

21.8 0.0

21.9 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.4 0.4

451.5 0.9

456.2 1.0

462.0 1.3

467.8 1.3

471.9 0.9

475.7 0.8

480.9 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

211.2 2.7

208.6 -1.2

206.9 -0.8

210.8 1.9

213.7 1.4

209.4 -2.0

204.6 -2.3

201.1 -1.7

198.9 -1.1

197.7 -0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.8

9.4

10.0

9.8

8.4

7.3

6.6

6.0

5.8

2424.7 1786.9 638.0

1326.9 1127.4 200.0

1035.6 954.9 81.0

1825.2 1369.8 455.0

1195.2 1194.3 1.0

1518.3 1498.5 20.0

2033.7 1918.2 116.0

2207.2 1960.5 247.0

2503.4 2206.2 297.0

2612.4 2303.4 309.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17 2 7.5 9.5

17.2 2.5 7.5 9.7

17.4 3.2 7.6 9.8

17.6 1.8 7.7 9.9

17.9 5.1 7.8 10.1

18 4.9 7.9 10.1

18.2 4.7 7.9 10.2

18.4 4.6 8 10.4

18.6 4.3 8.1 10.5

18.8 4.6 8.2 10.6

19 4.7 8.3 10.7

19.3 4.9 8.4 10.9

19.5 4.9 8.5 11.1

19.8 4.9 8.6 11.2

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 0.9

14.7 1.4

14.8 2.3

15 0.9

15.1 3.8

15.2 3.5

15.3 3.2

15.4 3.1

15.6 2.8

15.7 3.1

15.8 3.2

15.9 3.3

16.1 3.3

16.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.5 31.3

36.7 31.5

37.1 31.7

37.4 31.8

38 32.2

38.2 32.3

38.5 32.4

38.8 32.6

39.3 32.9

39.7 33

40 33.2

40.4 33.3

40.8 33.6

41.2 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.1 1.2

42.1 1.8

42.6 2.6

42.8 2.2

43.1 2.5

43.4 3

43.7 2.6

43.9 2.6

44.2 2.5

44.5 2.5

44.8 2.5

45 2.5

45.4 2.6

45.7 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

163.8 1.4

164.3 2

165 2

165.9 1.5

166.7 1.8

167.4 1.9

168 1.8

168.7 1.7

169.6 1.7

170.6 1.9

171.6 2.1

172.5 2.2

173.2 2.2

173.8 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 1.7

5.6 2

5.6 1.7

5.6 -0.1

5.6 0.4

5.6 0.7

5.7 1.2

5.7 1.9

5.7 1.7

5.7 1.8

5.7 1.6

5.8 1.6

5.8 1

5.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

158.2 1.4

158.8 2

159.4 2

160.3 1.5

161.1 1.8

161.8 1.9

162.3 1.8

163 1.7

163.9 1.7

164.8 1.9

165.8 2.1

166.7 2.3

167.5 2.2

168.1 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -1.3

9.7 0.8

9.8 6.4

9.9 4.7

10.2 5.8

10.4 7.6

10.7 9.5

11.1 11.8

11.5 13.3

11.9 14.2

12.4 15

12.7 14.6

13 13.4

13.3 11.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 3.5

31 4.1

31 3.5

31.2 2.3

31.1 0.8

31.1 0.3

31.1 0.2

31.2 0

31.1 0

31.2 0.3

31.4 0.8

31.5 1.2

31.6 1.5

31.7 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 21.8 4

5 21.9 4

5.1 21.9 4.1

5.1 22 4.1

5.1 21.9 4.1

5.2 21.9 4.2

5.2 22 4.2

5.2 22.1 4.2

5.3 22 4.2

5.3 22.1 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -0.6

2.3 -1.5

2.3 -2.9

2.3 0.4

2.3 1.4

2.3 0

2.3 -0.7

2.3 -0.9

2.3 -0.4

2.3 1

2.3 1.8

2.4 2.1

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 6.1

9.3 4

9.3 3.1

9.3 2.1

9.4 1

9.4 1.5

9.4 1.1

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.5

9.5 0.2

9.4 -0.1

9.4 -0.3

9.4 -0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 -2.2

21.3 -1.4

21.5 0.5

21.9 2.4

22.3 5.5

22.6 6.1

22.9 6.3

23.1 5.4

23.5 5.3

23.9 5.6

24.3 6

24.6 6.5

24.9 6

25.1 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 3.6

28.3 4.4

28.5 3

28.6 1.7

28.8 2.3

28.9 2.1

29 1.6

29 1.5

29.1 0.9

29.2 0.9

29.2 1

29.3 1

29.4 1.3

29.6 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 2.3

19.9 2.7

19.9 0.8

20 0.9

20 0.5

20 0.4

20 0.1

20.1 0.4

20 0.3

20 0.2

20 -0.1

19.9 -0.6

19.9 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 -0.4

8.5 0.1

8.6 0.8

8.6 1

8.6 0.8

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.1

8.6 0

8.6 -0.1

8.6 0.2

8.6 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -1.7

6.6 -2.6

6.6 -3.2

6.6 -1.9

6.6 -0.6

6.5 -1.8

6.4 -2.2

6.4 -2.6

6.4 -2.2

6.4 -2

6.3 -1.7

6.3 -2.4

6.3 -2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 0

21.8 1

21.8 1.3

21.8 0.1

21.8 0

21.8 -0.1

21.8 0

21.8 -0.1

21.8 0

21.9 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

465.8 1.3

467.2 1.3

468.5 1.2

469.6 1.2

470.6 1

471.5 0.9

472.3 0.8

473.2 0.7

474.1 0.7

475.1 0.8

476.2 0.8

477.5 0.9

478.8 1

480.2 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

206.1 -2.3

205 -2.1

204 -2.8

203.2 -2

202.3 -1.9

201.5 -1.7

200.8 -1.6

200.1 -1.5

199.5 -1.4

199 -1.2

198.7 -1

198.2 -0.9

197.9 -0.8

197.7 -0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

7.4

7.2

6.8

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

2104 2045 60

1992 1935 57

2013 1875 138

2027 1818 208

2076 1851 225

2188 1949 239

2270 2012 258

2294 2030 264

2317 2035 282

2485 2189 296

2606 2302 304

2605 2299 307

2605 2297 309

2606 2297 309

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.2 percent each year, the lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income levels should average $31,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent. The average annual wage level will be $44,100. Population growth will be at 1.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 12,889.98 million dollars.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 369,758 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 189,722 in April 2012 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.7% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,720 unemployed people for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 30,918 • Florida State University – 6,450 • Leon County Schools – 4,444 • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130 • City of Tallahassee – 2,708 • Publix Super Markets – 2,084 • Leon County – 1,918 • Florida A&M University – 1,888 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent each year, the second lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 5.4 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.6 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.6 percent. The Financial, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.1, -0.1, and -1.9 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Ability 1st breaks ground for expansion

• Monday, March 18 marks the groundbreaking of a 400-square-foot expansion to Ability 1st’s facility on Buford Court near Capital Circle NE.

• Ability 1st is the only nonprofit of its kind in the Big Bend that offers opportunities for lowincome individuals with physical disabilities to maintain independence.

• Due to a 40 percent increase in the number of individuals requesting assistance from its Access to Independence program, the organization started a campaign to raise $65,000. • The organization is currently renting storage facilities around the city to compensate for limited space. Employees have sometimes had

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

to turn away several donations because of a lack of space.

• The nonprofit’s Access to Independence program provides services like loaning out durable medical equipment and supplies, building wheelchair ramps in homes, and providing disposable medical supplies. Source: Tallahassee.com, March 19, 2013

Internet cafe ban passes hurdle

• After hearing two hours of Internet cafe owners pleading for regulation rather than a ban, the Senate Gaming Committee unanimously passed a bill written to shut the businesses down. • Internet cafes across the state offer casino-style electronics that state Sen. John Thrasher said were against the law.

• Internet cafes drew the attention of lawmakers after a multi-agency investigation revealed that roughly 60 cafes operated by Allied Veterans of the World raised $300 million but only donated 2 percent to veterans groups. Source: Tallahassee.com, March 19, 2013

FSU launches new research vessel, the RV Apalachee

• The RV Apalachee, Florida State University Coastal & Marine Lab’s new research vessel, is the only one of its kind in this region of the Gulf of Mexico.

• The custom-built, 64-foot catamaran-hulled boat was a nearly two-year project completed in January with $1.6 million of funding approved by FSU Vice President of Research Kirby Kemper. • Wet and dry laboratories, sediment coring gear and a remotely-operated vehicle are among its features used to study the chemistry, geology and biology of the Gulf. • Initial projects aboard will be aimed at BP Deepwater Horizon spill-related research. Source: Tallahassee.com, March 18, 2013

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Tallahassee is first new bakery in Bruegger’s major corporate expansion • A bakery in Tallahassee is the first in the new wave of Bruegger’s Bagels shops the company is opening in a two-year expansion effort.

• The company, based in Burlington, Vt., has 304 locations in North America. “Our plan is to add approximately 100 across the country over the next few years by 2015. In that growth we are focusing on the markets where we already are,” said David Austin, president and CEO, during a visit Thursday to help open the new Bruegger’s in the Mahan Village shopping center. • Bruegger’s began in 1983 and has had a Tallahassee presence for more than half the time the company has been in business.

• The new Mahan Drive restaurant is the fourth Bruegger’s Bagle shop in Tallahassee. There is one at the Carriage Gate shopping center on Thomasville Road, one at 1216 N. Monroe St. and one at 1625 W. Tharpe St. Source: Tallahassee.com, March 15, 2013

T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

13500.0

8.0%

12000.0

6.0%

11500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

4.0%

10500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0% -2.0%

160.0 155.0

13000.0 12500.0

180.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.8 5.5 6.9 5.0

12.3 3.5 6.9 5.3

11.7 -4.6 6.8 4.9

12.5 6.5 6.8 5.7

12.8 3.0 6.8 6.0

13.1 1.7 6.8 6.2

13.4 2.4 7.1 6.3

14.0 4.8 7.4 6.6

14.7 4.7 7.7 7.0

15.4 5.1 8.1 7.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 2.7

11.3 0.3

10.7 -4.6

11.2 4.5

11.3 0.6

11.3 -0.1

11.4 1.4

11.8 3.3

12.2 3.1

12.6 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.1 31.4

33.9 31.1

32.0 29.4

33.8 30.4

34.6 30.4

34.8 30.0

35.2 30.1

36.5 30.8

37.7 31.4

39.1 32.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.0 3.6

39.7 1.9

39.9 0.3

40.5 1.6

41.0 1.1

41.6 1.5

42.6 2.5

43.8 2.8

45.1 3.0

46.5 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

175.7 1.1

174.0 -0.9

169.0 -2.9

167.0 -1.2

165.6 -0.8

163.6 -1.2

165.2 1.0

167.3 1.3

170.0 1.6

172.6 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 2.8

4.2 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -11.2

3.2 -3.8

3.2 1.6

3.3 1.7

3.3 2.4

3.4 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

171.1 1.1

169.8 -0.8

165.2 -2.7

163.3 -1.2

162.3 -0.6

160.5 -1.1

162.0 1.0

164.1 1.3

166.6 1.6

169.2 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -3.0

8.6 -9.7

7.0 -18.0

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.5

5.8 -4.4

5.9 0.8

6.4 8.5

7.3 14.3

8.1 10.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 -1.2

24.0 -4.5

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.3 0.7

22.1 -0.9

22.2 0.5

22.3 0.1

22.4 0.5

22.7 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.6 18.5 1.8

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.5 1.6

3.2 17.4 1.6

3.2 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.4 1.7

3.4 17.5 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 2.8

3.6 0.5

3.4 -6.0

3.1 -9.1

3.2 3.6

3.3 2.2

3.2 -0.9

3.2 -0.1

3.3 1.3

3.3 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -3.0

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 0.9

7.1 -4.7

7.0 -1.2

7.1 1.1

7.1 0.4

7.1 -0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.4 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.4 1.4

18.0 -2.5

18.3 1.7

19.4 5.9

20.5 6.1

21.5 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 3.8

19.2 4.0

19.5 1.4

19.5 0.2

19.8 1.2

19.9 0.8

20.4 2.4

20.8 1.7

21.0 1.1

21.4 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 3.6

16.7 -1.5

16.4 -1.6

16.2 -1.3

16.2 0.0

16.8 3.4

17.6 4.8

17.6 0.4

17.7 0.3

17.6 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 8.1

7.5 11.9

7.6 2.1

7.3 -4.4

6.6 -8.9

6.8 3.3

7.1 4.1

7.2 0.8

7.2 0.3

7.3 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 0.0

2.0 3.9

2.0 1.2

2.1 5.0

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -0.4

1.9 -1.4

1.8 -2.5

1.8 -2.4

1.8 -1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1.0

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0.0

60.3 -1.1

58.7 -2.6

58.4 -0.5

58.3 -0.1

58.4 0.1

58.6 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

357.7 1.8

361.6 1.1

365.4 1.0

369.1 1.0

371.7 0.7

375.9 1.1

380.3 1.2

384.2 1.0

388.8 1.2

394.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

188.2 3.5

191.4 1.7

191.8 0.2

191.9 0.1

192.4 0.3

191.0 -0.7

187.2 -2.0

185.2 -1.1

183.6 -0.9

182.4 -0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.1

4.7

7.3

8.3

7.3

6.1

5.4

5.0

2765.7 2182.3 583.0

1235.9 962.5 273.0

827.8 613.3 214.0

659.3 603.4 56.0

782.8 563.1 220.0

961.1 613.3 348.0

1349.5 848.8 501.0

1946.0 1286.9 659.0

2418.7 1693.4 725.0

2522.5 1737.2 785.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.2 2 7 6.2

13.3 2.9 7 6.3

13.4 3 7.1 6.3

13.6 1.7 7.2 6.4

13.8 4.9 7.3 6.6

13.9 4.7 7.3 6.6

14.1 4.8 7.4 6.7

14.2 4.7 7.5 6.7

14.4 4.5 7.6 6.9

14.6 4.6 7.7 6.9

14.7 4.7 7.8 7

14.9 4.9 7.8 7.1

15.1 5 7.9 7.2

15.3 5 8 7.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 0.9

11.4 1.8

11.5 2.1

11.6 0.8

11.7 3.6

11.8 3.2

11.9 3.3

11.9 3.2

12.1 3

12.1 3.1

12.2 3.2

12.3 3.3

12.5 3.4

12.6 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.8 29.8

35.1 30

35.3 30.2

35.6 30.3

36.1 30.6

36.3 30.7

36.6 30.8

36.9 30.9

37.3 31.2

37.6 31.3

37.9 31.4

38.2 31.5

38.6 31.8

39 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.2 2.2

42.5 2.5

42.7 2.7

43 2.5

43.3 2.6

43.7 2.8

44 3

44.3 3

44.6 3

45 3

45.3 3

45.6 2.9

46 3

46.3 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

164.5 0.5

165 1.7

165.4 1

166 0.7

166.6 1.2

167.1 1.3

167.5 1.3

168.1 1.3

168.8 1.4

169.6 1.5

170.4 1.7

171.1 1.8

171.8 1.8

172.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 3.5

3.2 2.4

3.2 1.5

3.2 -0.8

3.2 1.1

3.2 1.4

3.3 1.9

3.3 2.5

3.3 2.4

3.3 2.5

3.3 2.3

3.4 2.3

3.4 1.9

3.4 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

161.3 0.5

161.8 1.7

162.2 1

162.8 0.8

163.3 1.2

163.8 1.3

164.3 1.3

164.8 1.2

165.5 1.3

166.3 1.5

167 1.7

167.8 1.8

168.4 1.8

168.9 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.8

5.9 0.4

5.9 1.5

6 1.9

6.1 5.5

6.3 7.3

6.5 9.3

6.7 11.6

6.9 13.2

7.2 14.2

7.4 15

7.7 14.7

7.9 13.5

8 11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 -0.2

22.2 0.8

22.3 0.5

22.2 0

22.3 -0.1

22.2 -0.1

22.3 0.2

22.4 0.8

22.5 1.1

22.6 1.4

22.6 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 17.3 1.6

3.2 17.4 1.6

3.2 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.7

3.3 17.4 1.7

3.3 17.5 1.7

3.4 17.5 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -3.1

3.2 -2.2

3.2 0.4

3.2 1.6

3.2 1.3

3.2 -0.2

3.2 -0.9

3.2 -0.8

3.2 -0.2

3.3 1.2

3.3 1.9

3.3 2.2

3.3 2.4

3.3 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7 -2.3

7 -1.8

7 -1.6

7 0.8

7.1 0.8

7.1 1.2

7.1 1.4

7.1 1.1

7.1 0.9

7.1 0.5

7.1 0.2

7.1 -0.1

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.8

18 1

18.1 1.3

18.3 1.3

18.7 3.2

19 5.5

19.2 6.2

19.5 6.5

19.7 5.7

20 5.6

20.4 5.9

20.7 6.3

21 6.7

21.2 6.1

21.4 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 2.5

20.4 3

20.5 1.7

20.5 2.2

20.7 2

20.7 1.9

20.8 1.4

20.8 1.5

20.9 1

21 1

21 1.2

21.1 1.2

21.2 1.5

21.3 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 7

17.6 7.7

17.6 3.6

17.6 1.4

17.7 0.9

17.6 0.4

17.6 0.2

17.6 0

17.7 0.3

17.7 0.4

17.7 0.3

17.6 0

17.6 -0.5

17.6 -0.7

7.1 5.6

7.1 4.8

7.1 4

7.2 2.2

7.2 1

7.2 0.9

7.2 0.8

7.2 0.4

7.2 0.3

7.2 0.2

7.2 0.4

7.2 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -1.5

1.9 -1

1.9 -0.6

1.9 -2.5

1.8 -2.1

1.8 -1.3

1.8 -3.3

1.8 -3.2

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -2.5

1.8 -2.2

1.8 -1.9

1.8 -1.4

1.8 -1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 -1.7

58.4 0.5

58.4 -0.1

58.4 -0.8

58.3 -0.2

58.3 -0.1

58.4 -0.1

58.4 0.1

58.4 0

58.4 0.1

58.5 0.2

58.5 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

378.8 1.2

379.9 1.2

380.7 1.1

381.7 1.1

382.7 1

383.6 1

384.6 1

385.7 1

386.9 1.1

388.1 1.2

389.4 1.2

390.7 1.3

392 1.3

393.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

188.1 -2.7

187.4 -2

186.9 -2

186.4 -1.3

185.9 -1.2

185.4 -1.1

185 -1

184.5 -1

184.1 -0.9

183.8 -0.9

183.5 -0.8

183.1 -0.8

182.7 -0.8

182.4 -0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.5

6.2

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.3

5.2

5.1

1117 735 382

1247 806 442

1422 882 540

1612 973 639

1736 1082 654

1872 1243 629

2033 1361 672

2143 1462 681

2252 1570 682

2402 1684 718

2510 1766 744

2512 1754 758

2516 1745 771

2517 1737 780

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.7 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $36,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level will be $50,200. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 112,229.20 million dollars.

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,294,005 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2012. This amounts to 110,492 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application)

Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 employees • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 employees • Pasco County School District – 9,289 employees • Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 employees • University of South Florida – 8,353 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,060 employees • Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 employees • Publix Food Centers – 5,823 employees

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

Employment growth is expected to be 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 6.9 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 9.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and the Education and Health Service sector with average annual growth rates of 5.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector will be the only sector to experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Global Shipping Company links with Port of Tampa Bay

• Mediterranean Shipping Co., the second-largest shipping container line in the world, has linked Tampa to its global shipping network. • The Port of Tampa already reaches the east coast of South America and the Mediterranean, but MSC will connect the port to the South American west coast, the Middle East, and via the Suez Canal, the Indian subcontinent.

• The deal will likely increase the number of cargo containers that move through Tampa Bay. The increase in cargo containers and potential shipping destinations will likely spur economic growth in the surrounding area. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 10, 2013

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

HMA pays $162 million to take over St. Petersburg’s hospital

• Bayfront Medical Center, Pinellas County’s last independent hospital, agreed to a sales price of $162 million with Health Management Associates. • HMA receives an 80 percent controlling interest in Bayfront, which will become a forprofit hospital.

• HMA will continue to keep Bayfront’s charity care and trauma center, and plans to invest an additional $100 million dollars in the hospital in the next five years. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 14, 2013

Duke Energy Closes Crystal River Nuclear Power Plant

• After three years of trying to fix the damage workers caused when they cracked the 42-inch thick concrete containment building during an upgrade to the plant’s generating capacity, Duke Energy has finally closed the nuclear power plant. • The Crystal River plan is the first nuclear plant in Florida and in the entire Southeast to be shutdown.

Tampa Bay to the rest of the country because drivers will be able to avoid downtown Ybor traffic.

• PCL/Archer Western, the contractor of the road, faces a $24,000-a-day penalty for each day the project is over the original deadline, but the penalties could be waived if such delays are considered unavoidable. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 14, 2013

Morgan Stanley Adding 110 Jobs, Building Facility in Temple Terrace

• Financial services company Morgan Stanley is expanding in Hillsborough County, investing $6.6 million in a new Temple Terrace facility and adding up to 110 jobs.

• The state of Florida, Hillsborough County, and Temple Terrace combined to provide Morgan Stanley with $550,000 worth of incentives or about $5,000 per new job.

• Morgan Stanley’s move to the area could provide even bigger deal to come to the Tampa Bay area according to the Tampa/Hillsborough EDC. Source: Tampa Bay Times, January 15, 2013

• Thus far, the Crystal River plant has created $1.3 billion in costs to customers since becoming idle in 2009. The cost includes $450 million for operation and maintenance costs that include personnel, security, and federal nuclear fees as well as $450 million to upgrade the amount of electricity the plant can produce. Source: Tampa Bay Times, February 3, 2013

The I-4/Selmon Expressway Connector Toll Road Delayed to the End of 2013 • The most expensive road ever built in Tampa Bay, the $400 million I-4/Selmon Expressway, has been pushed back 190 days from June 12 to December 19.

• While the bridges over I-4 and the Selmon are completed, bridges over State Road 60 have not been finished. Once complete, the expressway will ease the transportation of goods from Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; St . P ete r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1200.0 1150.0 1100.0

1.2

100000.0

1250.0

1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

80000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0

0.8

110000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

April 2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

102.4 4.0 54.1 48.4

104.8 2.3 53.6 51.2

99.0 -5.5 51.3 47.8

106.1 7.1 51.5 54.6

110.9 4.5 53.2 57.7

114.8 3.5 55.3 59.5

117.9 2.7 57.4 60.5

124.3 5.4 60.4 63.8

131.0 5.4 63.9 67.1

138.0 5.4 67.2 70.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

97.1 1.3

96.2 -0.9

90.9 -5.5

95.5 5.1

97.5 2.1

99.2 1.7

100.8 1.7

104.8 4.0

108.8 3.8

112.9 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

37.5 35.6

38.1 35.0

35.8 32.8

38.0 34.2

39.2 34.5

40.4 34.9

41.1 35.1

42.7 36.0

44.3 36.8

46.0 37.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.4 3.5

44.5 2.5

45.2 1.6

45.8 1.4

46.6 1.7

47.3 1.6

48.2 1.7

49.5 2.9

50.9 2.8

52.3 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1234.4 -0.1

1192.9 -3.4

1122.7 -5.9

1112.1 -0.9

1129.8 1.6

1155.4 2.3

1179.7 2.1

1207.4 2.3

1242.7 2.9

1273.1 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

75.9 -3.4

71.5 -5.7

61.9 -13.4

58.2 -6.1

58.8 1.1

59.3 0.9

59.2 -0.2

60.2 1.6

61.4 2.1

62.2 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1158.5 0.1

1121.4 -3.2

1060.7 -5.4

1053.9 -0.6

1071.1 1.6

1096.0 2.3

1120.5 2.2

1147.3 2.4

1181.3 3.0

1210.9 2.5

87.8 -7.0

76.4 -13.0

60.2 -21.3

52.9 -12.1

52.7 -0.3

53.9 2.2

55.7 3.4

60.2 7.9

68.8 14.3

75.8 10.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

235.0 -0.7

227.3 -3.3

210.5 -7.4

209.4 -0.5

213.4 1.9

218.8 2.5

223.9 2.3

226.1 1.0

229.3 1.4

233.5 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

54.3 151.7 29.0

52.9 146.7 27.8

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

46.3 141.3 25.8

48.2 144.2 26.3

48.2 148.4 26.5

49.4 149.1 27.3

50.8 150.4 28.1

52.1 151.7 29.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.5 -9.0

25.7 -6.6

25.9 0.6

25.6 -0.9

25.6 -0.2

25.6 0.1

25.9 1.1

26.4 2.0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

103.2 -0.9

98.6 -4.5

93.2 -5.5

89.4 -4.1

91.6 2.5

95.1 3.8

95.2 0.2

95.7 0.5

96.2 0.5

96.0 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

199.0 0.0

185.7 -6.7

173.2 -6.7

178.2 2.9

187.2 5.1

196.1 4.7

201.7 2.9

216.0 7.1

231.3 7.1

242.1 4.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

168.6 4.4

173.0 2.6

174.4 0.8

177.9 2.0

180.3 1.4

182.7 1.4

190.3 4.1

194.0 1.9

198.1 2.2

204.2 3.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

132.1 0.1

128.2 -3.0

122.1 -4.8

121.4 -0.5

123.0 1.3

128.3 4.3

132.1 3.0

133.6 1.1

135.0 1.1

135.0 0.0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

49.1 1.4

48.9 -0.5

45.2 -7.5

44.2 -2.3

43.6 -1.2

43.6 -0.2

45.0 3.2

45.2 0.6

45.2 0.1

45.5 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 0.4

21.9 3.9

22.7 3.7

24.0 5.6

22.9 -4.6

22.6 -1.3

22.4 -0.9

22.0 -1.8

21.6 -1.7

21.4 -1.0

130.6 2.0

131.1 0.4

131.7 0.5

130.9 -0.6

130.4 -0.4

129.4 -0.8

128.6 -0.6

128.8 0.2

129.7 0.7

131.0 1.0

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2728.9 1.0

2748.9 0.7

2767.5 0.7

2794.6 1.0

2827.2 1.2

2845.1 0.6

2868.4 0.8

2908.5 1.4

2955.5 1.6

3003.6 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1305.3 2.7

1308.3 0.2

1292.7 -1.2

1288.5 -0.3

1308.2 1.5

1318.7 0.8

1333.0 1.1

1343.4 0.8

1358.8 1.2

1376.3 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

6.6

10.8

11.7

10.9

8.9

7.8

7.1

6.5

6.1

11536.4 8572.1 2964.0

9265.2 5277.8 3987.0

5878.0 3974.9 1903.0

6317.5 4513.2 1804.0

6866.6 4492.7 2374.0

9636.5 6109.7 3527.0

14366.4 8817.6 5549.0

17884.2 11949.8 5934.0

21078.8 15500.7 5578.0

22600.3 16593.1 6007.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

April 2013

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

115.8 2.2 56.5 59.3

117.3 2.8 57 60.3

118.6 3.6 57.7 60.8

120 2.2 58.5 61.5

122.1 5.5 59.3 62.9

123.5 5.3 60.1 63.4

125 5.4 60.8 64.2

126.6 5.5 61.6 64.9

128.6 5.3 62.6 66.1

130.2 5.5 63.5 66.7

131.8 5.5 64.4 67.4

133.3 5.3 65.2 68.1

135.5 5.3 66 69.4

137.1 5.3 66.8 70.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

99.4 1.1

100.4 1.7

101.3 2.6

102.2 1.2

103.6 4.2

104.3 3.8

105.2 3.9

106.2 3.9

107.5 3.8

108.4 4

109.4 3.9

110.1 3.7

111.5 3.7

112.4 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40.5 34.8

41 35.1

41.3 35.3

41.6 35.5

42.2 35.8

42.5 35.9

42.9 36.1

43.3 36.3

43.8 36.6

44.2 36.8

44.5 36.9

44.8 37

45.4 37.3

45.8 37.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.7 0.6

47.9 1.6

48.4 2.4

48.7 2.4

49 2.8

49.4 3.1

49.7 2.8

50 2.7

50.4 2.8

50.8 2.8

51.1 2.8

51.4 2.8

51.8 2.7

52.1 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1172.5 2.1

1176.4 1.9

1181.5 2.3

1188.5 2

1195.6 2

1203.5 2.3

1211.2 2.5

1219.4 2.6

1228.6 2.8

1238.3 2.9

1247.7 3

1256.2 3

1263 2.8

1269.1 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

59.1 -0.8

59.2 -0.4

59.3 0

59.2 0.3

59.6 1

60 1.3

60.3 1.8

60.7 2.4

61.1 2.4

61.4 2.3

61.6 2

61.8 1.9

62 1.5

62.1 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1113.4 2.3

1117.2 2.1

1122.3 2.4

1129.2 2.1

1136 2

1143.5 2.4

1150.8 2.5

1158.7 2.6

1167.5 2.8

1177 2.9

1186.1 3.1

1194.4 3.1

1201 2.9

1207 2.5

54.9 2.3

55.4 3

56 3.8

56.7 4.5

57.6 5

59.1 6.7

60.9 8.7

63 11.2

65.2 13.1

67.6 14.4

70.1 15.1

72.2 14.7

74 13.5

75.3 11.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

222.7 2.1

223.8 2.5

224.1 2.5

225 2.2

225.2 1.1

225.8 0.9

226.4 1

227.2 1

227.5 1

228.5 1.2

229.9 1.6

231.3 1.8

232 1.9

232.9 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.8 148.1 26.3

48 148.5 26.4

48.3 148.5 26.5

48.7 148.6 26.8

49 149.2 27

49.2 149.2 27.2

49.5 149.1 27.3

49.8 149.2 27.5

50.2 149.7 27.8

50.6 150 28

50.9 150.6 28.2

51.3 151.2 28.5

51.6 151.2 28.7

51.9 151.4 29

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.3 -1.8

25.6 -0.6

25.7 0.3

25.8 1.2

25.8 1.7

25.6 0

25.5 -0.8

25.6 -0.5

25.8 0.1

25.8 1.1

25.9 1.5

26 1.5

26.2 1.7

26.4 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

95.3 1.2

95.1 0.3

95.2 -0.5

95.3 -0.2

95.3 0

95.7 0.7

95.9 0.8

96 0.7

96.1 0.8

96.3 0.6

96.3 0.4

96.1 0.1

96 -0.1

95.8 -0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

198.7 2.5

199.8 1.7

202.2 3

206.2 4.2

210.2 5.8

214.3 7.2

218.2 7.9

221.5 7.4

225.7 7.3

229.7 7.2

233.5 7

236.5 6.8

238.5 5.7

240.4 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

189.2 4.6

189.7 4.5

190.9 5

191.4 2.5

192.7 1.9

193.7 2.1

194.3 1.8

195.2 1.9

196.1 1.8

197.5 2

198.8 2.3

200.1 2.5

201.8 2.9

203.6 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

131.4 3.9

132 3.4

132.2 2.7

132.8 1.9

133.2 1.3

133.5 1.1

133.7 1.1

134.1 1

134.9 1.3

135 1.2

135 1

135.2 0.8

135.2 0.2

135 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.8 3.6

44.9 3.7

45 3.5

45.1 2.2

45.2 0.8

45.2 0.6

45.3 0.6

45.2 0.3

45.2 0.2

45.2 0

45.2 -0.1

45.3 0.1

45.4 0.3

45.4 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 -0.2

22.2 -1.5

22.4 -0.2

22.3 -1.6

22.2 -1.7

22 -0.8

21.9 -2.3

21.8 -2.3

21.7 -2.1

21.6 -1.8

21.6 -1.6

21.5 -1.3

21.5 -1.2

21.4 -1.1

128.5 -1

128.6 -1.4

128.5 -0.3

128.6 0.2

128.5 0

128.6 0

128.9 0.3

129.1 0.4

129.3 0.6

129.6 0.7

129.9 0.8

130.2 0.9

130.5 1

130.9 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2856.8 0.6

2863.8 0.7

2871.8 0.9

2881.1 1

2891.1 1.2

2902.6 1.4

2914.2 1.5

2926.1 1.6

2937.7 1.6

2949.6 1.6

2961.4 1.6

2973.2 1.6

2985.1 1.6

2996.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1330.6 1.2

1331.9 1.6

1333.5 1.1

1336.1 0.5

1338.7 0.6

1341.5 0.7

1345 0.9

1348.2 0.9

1351.9 1

1356.5 1.1

1361.4 1.2

1365.6 1.3

1369.8 1.3

1374.2 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

13156 8121 5035

13750 8509 5241

14724 8994 5730

15835 9646 6189

16676 10371 6305

17592 11544 6049

18328 12510 5819

18940 13375 5565

19856 14319 5537

20828 15364 5464

21707 16147 5560

21924 16173 5751

22232 16335 5898

22495 16497 5998

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2013

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Sea n M . S n aith , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u