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I m p a c t   R e p o r t   -­‐   2 0 1 1    

  Execu've  summary   Ubuntu  Educa'on  Fund  was  founded  in  1999  with  the  goal  of  helping  the  most  vulnerable   children  of  Port  Elizabeth,  South  Africa  access  higher  educa'on  and  eventually   employment.  Over  the  past  12  years  we  have  refined  our  cradle  to  career  model  and   believe  our  comprehensive  approach  is  truly  working.         In  2011,  as  part  of  our  process  to  develop  Ubuntu’s  ins'tu'onal  capacity,  we  entered  into   an  engagement  with  McKinsey  &  Company  to  help  us  beNer  measure,  review,  and   communicate  our  impact.  With  Mckinsey’s  assistance  we  were  able  to  narrow  in  on  a  set   of  integra've  outcome  measures  of  Ubuntu’s  objec'ves  to  track,  asses  and  generate   insight,  around  our  impact.    Our  findings  speak  to  the  high  social  returns  generated  by  an   investment  in  Ubuntu  while  comparing  such  an  investment  to  “the  alterna've”.  The   following  report  is  a  summary  of  the  methodology  and  impact  of  Ubuntu  Educa'on  Fund.  

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Key  Findings   • 

of  Uobuntu   clients   adhere   to  their   HIV  H drug   egimens,   compared   to  57%   n  the   ity  coity   f  Port   • 96%  96%   f  Ubuntu   clients   adhere   to  their   IV  drrug   regimens,   compared   to  5i7%   in  cthe   of  Port   Elizabeth   and  a7nd   5%  7i5%   n  all   South   Africa.       Elizabeth   in  oaf  ll   of  South   Africa.  

• 

of  Uobuntu   clients   are  sauccessful   with  wtith   heir   TB  treatment   at  Uabuntu,   compared   to  41%   n  the   • 94%  94%   f  Ubuntu   clients   re  successful   their   TB  treatment   t  Ubuntu,   compared   to  4i1%   in   Eastern   ape  Province,   76%  in  S7outh   Africa,   80%  and   globally.   the  ECastern   Cape  Province,   6%  in   South  aAnd   frica,   80%  globally.  

• 

of  Uobuntu   clients   are  taracking   towards   the  uthe   l'mate   goal  gooal   f  a  opf  roduc've   career   within   four  years   • 82%  82%   f  Ubuntu   clients   re  tracking   towards   ul'mate   a  produc've   career   within   of  joining   Ubuntu.   four  years   of  joining  Ubuntu.  

• 

years   of  progress   gained   by  children   in  Ubuntu’s   academic   program   for  efach   year  yeear   nrolled.   • 1.2    1.2    years   of  progress   gained   by  children   in  Ubuntu’s   academic   program   or  each   Children   who  Cahildren   Nend  public   nd  are   not  in  aU buntu   ain   half  gaain    year   for  healf   ach   hey  are   enrolled.   who  aschools   Nend  paublic   schools   nd   are  ngot   in  oUnly   buntu   only   a  year  ftor   in  school,   hus  tfhey   alling   behind   one  tghus   rade   level  beehind   very  two   each  ytear   are   in  school,   falling   one  ygears.   rade  level  every  two  years.  

• 

of  Uobuntu   clients   pass  atre   he  pM atric  t(he   Grade   12)  (eGrade   xam  w1hile   hose   in  at  7he   community   • 72%  72%   f  Ubuntu   clients   assing   Matric   2)  etxam   at   2%   rate  while  stchools   hose  in  ptass   he   at   only  community   a  37%  rate.  s  chools  pass  at  only  a  37%  rate.    

• 

net  lnife'me   contribu'on   to  society   by  ab  cy   hild   who  whho   as  ghraduated   buntu  cPlient.   rogram.   • $195,000   $195,000   et  life'me   contribu'on   to  society   a  child   as  grown  furom   p  as  tahe   n  UUbuntu  

• 

cost  ctost   o  society   of  a  ocf   hild   from   our  coommunity   who  wis  ho   not   client.   • $9,000   $9,000   to  society   a  child   from   ur  community   is  ann   ot  Uabuntu   n  Ubuntu   client.  

• 

net  gnain   o  society   from   every   dollar   invested   in  Ubuntu.   • $2.20   $2.20   et  gtain   to  society   from   every   dollar   invested   in  Ubuntu.  

• 

real  rleal   ife'me   earnings   for  efvery   $1  invested   in  an   child.   • $8.70   $8.70   life'me   earnings   or  every   $1  invested   in  Uabuntu   n  Ubuntu   child.   3

Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Economic impact analysis

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MISSION AND OBJECTIVE

Ubuntu’s  mission  and  objec've  

Mission

Objective

Transform the lives of children in Port Elizabeth, South Africa living in vulnerable circumstances to enable them to become adults with stable health and incomes

Provide integrated, individual support to clients to stabilise their environment and improve their quality of life through: •  Health Support: Ensuring their physical and emotional well-being; •  Household Stability: Providing household security, stability and support; •  Education Support: •  Providing academic, extra-curricular, vocational support; •  Offering ongoing support through higher/further education to secure a career.

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Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Economic impact analysis

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CONTEXT

Ubuntu  clients  are  highly  vulnerable  in  terms  of  health,  home  and   educa'on  (1/2)  

Health issue

Incoming clients who fit the description Percent

Education issue

HIV infected or affected

Household stability issue

100

▪  100% incoming clients are infected with or directly affected by HIV

Vulnerable child Highly unsafe, unstable home1

▪  75% of clients come from highly unsafe or unstable homes

Adult male present in home

▪  None can read at

1 or more years older than correct age for grade *Reading at correct age level2

the correct age level 0

1 Defined as home which is not secure against intrusion of persons or the elements, is highly unhygienic, and requires significant support to progress 2 As measured on Kip McGrath proficiency assessments

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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CONTEXT

Ubuntu  clients  are  highly  vulnerable  in  terms  of  health,   home  and  educa'on  (2/2)   Ubuntu client fitting description upon joining Individuals per group of 100

Fits  descripCon   Does  not  fit   descripCon  

HIV  infected  or  affected  (100%)  

Highly  unsafe,  unstable  home1  (75%)  

1  or  more  years  older  than  correct  age  for  grade  (40%)  

Reading  behind  correct  age  level2  (100%)  

1 Defined as home which is not secure against intrusion of persons or the elements, is highly unhygienic, and/or requires significant support to progress 2 As measured on Kip McGrath proficiency assessments

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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CONTEXT

The  prevalence  of  HIV  infec'on  is  much  higher  than  in  other  geographies  and   communi'es   HIV+

High Ubuntu client HIV prevalence HIV prevalence in group of 100 age 15-24 USA: ~0.02% infected

South Africa: ~ 8.7% infected

HIV-

Ubuntu clients1: 62% infected

1 This reflects the percentage of those joining Ubuntu who are known to be positive within a year of joining, out of total joining who by the end of their first year know their status

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; Centre for Disease Control; Avert

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Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Economic impact analysis

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Ubuntu’s  innova've  model  is  based  on  five  core  principles  

Core principles Core service areas

1   ▪  Nurturing and ▪  ▪ 

development of staff Training, upskilling, mentoring Staff “grow with Ubuntu”

▪  Support services Individual cradle-career care

BUILDing a sustainable institution

5 5  

Health

▪  Transformation

▪ 

requires deep involvement in clients’ lives A focused Ubuntu means better client service

Scale in impact through depth, not breadth

Clients

▪ 

tailored to client specific Individual development plans to ensure optimal progress

2   Integrated Client services

▪  Comprehensive, holistic support

▪  Health care, household security and stability, education

4 4  

Based in the community 3 3  

▪  Long-term commitment rooted in the community ▪  People from community, permanence through building, ownership through mobilisation

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Ubuntu’s  theory  of  change  guides  the  way  we  measures  impact   “We  do  not  measure  success  by  the  number  of  classes  taught  or  meals  served,  but  rather  by  the  number   of  lives  that  have  fundamentally  been  changed.”          –Jacob  Lief,  President  and  Founder  Ubuntu  EducaCon  Fund  

Deliver impact… Inputs

Activities

Outputs

▪  High

▪  Education:

▪  Graduates of

quality, skilled staff (largely local)

▪  Ubuntu

Centre: Our facility based in Zwide township offering holistic, high-quality services

▪  Motivated clients

Early Childhood Development, After School Programme, scholarships

▪  Health care: physical (clinical care and nutrition) and psychosocial support for clients and their families

▪  Gov’t services: facilitated access

educational programmes

▪  Health care

for clients and families

▪  Safe, monitored homes

▪  Gov’t

services allocated and distributed

Intermediate outcomes

Final outcomes

§  Healthy individuals

§  ‘North star’: develop clients into healthy adults with stable incomes

§  Stable households/ environments §  Education path completed: § 

Early Childhood Development

§ 

Primary

§ 

Secondary

§ 

Post-secondary (university, technical college, apprenticeships)

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Ubuntu’s  ul'mate  goal  –  our  “north  star”  –  is  to  help  our  clients  develop  into   adults  with  stable  health  and  incomes  

Stable  health  

Stable  income  

Success Health

▪ 

Reduce health risks (keep clients on track to achieve sustainably good health)

Income

▪  ▪  ▪  ▪ 

University FET/vocational Apprenticeship Entrepreneurship/ direct to work

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Ubuntu  has  iden'fied  intermediate  outcomes  that  lead  to  our  ul'mate  goal     Measurements Intermediate outcomes

Physical  health  

Vision  

▪  Adherence to treatment ▪  Co-infection with TB managed ▪  Receiving adequate nutrition ▪  Within acceptable weight band (as defined by WHO) ▪  Vision correction/eye conditions

Dental  

▪  Oral hygiene/dental conditions

HIV/Aids   Developmental  

Stable,  healthy   individuals  

Stable,   suppor've   environment  

Progress   through  the   educa'on   system  

Mental  health  

▪  Emotional health

Stability  

▪  Vulnerable children receiving support services ▪  Household hygiene (rats, etc.)

Safety/security  

▪  Security of home (doors, burglar bars) ▪  Alcohol abuse/domestic violence1

Support  

▪  Caregiver attendance at Ubuntu events

ECD  

▪  Basic proficiency in literacy and development ▪  Annual progress

Primary  

▪  Literacy/numeracy ▪  Annual progress ▪  Student on track to meet requirements for at least 1 of 3 paths

On  track   Secondary  

(university, FET, apprenticeship)

Making  progress  

▪  Yearly progress based on Kip-McGrath metrics

Access  

▪  Student follows 1 of 3 routes to success after secondary school

Progress  

▪  Student is on track to complete study in chosen route

Post-­‐secondary  

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Ubuntu  supports  clients  in  an  integrated  way  across  three  areas:  health,   household  stability  and  educa'onal  progress   ▪ 

▪ 

▪ 

▪ 

▪ 

Early childhood development education programme for 3-5-year-olds (new) Primary afterschool programme (under development) Secondary school after-school programme (feeding, numeracy, literacy, homework support, extra-curricular activities) Scholarship programme for tertiary education at university or vocational training college Ongoing support (tutors, financial, etc.) for clients accessing higher education

▪  BUILDing a sustainable institution

I  

Individual cradle-career care

▪  ▪  ▪ 

Health

▪  ▪ 

Scale in impact through depth, not breadth

Clients

2 Integrated client services

3

▪ 

▪  ▪  Based in the community

▪ 

▪  ▪ 

Comprehensive health screening through world-class clinic offering HIV & TB testing and treatment, adherence support (accreditation pending) Nutritional support; food provision and supplementation Vision and dental screening (hearing screening pending) Psycho-social counselling and care for clients and families Sexual and reproductive health education; post-exposure prophylaxis for rape victims Ante-natal care for pregnant mothers and infant care programmes

Home security and stability assessments Assistance for families to access government services Security improvement for homes (installation of doors, burglar bars, etc.) and occasional reconstruction of inadequate housing Ventilation, TB and hygiene assessment and education Support for families, especially those affected by alcohol abuse or domestic violence

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Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Methodology for impact assessment Pathway outcomes Comparative outcomes Economic impact analysis

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Ubuntu  has  created  specific  tools  to  measure  metrics  that  enable  us     to  assess  our  impact   Issues

Intermediate outcomes

Ubuntu tool

Avail.

▪  ▪ 

Adherence to treatment Co-infection with TB managed

▪ 

Clinic visit data

▪ 

Therapy Edge

Develop-­‐mental  

▪  ▪ 

Receiving adequate nutrition Within acceptable weight band (as defined by WHO)

▪ 

Clinic visit data

▪ 

Therapy Edge

▪ 

Vision correction/eye conditions

▪���

Optometrist visit data

▪ 

Therapy Edge

▪ 

Oral hygiene/dental conditions

▪ 

Optometrist visit data

▪ 

Therapy Edge

▪ 

Emotional health

▪ 

Mental health assessment▪  Case review

Stability  

▪  ▪ 

Vulnerable children receiving support services Household hygiene (rats, etc.)

▪ 

Home visit

▪ 

Home assessment

Safety/security  

▪  ▪ 

Security of home (doors, burglar bars) Alcohol abuse/domestic violence1

▪ 

Home visit

▪ 

Home assessment

Support  

▪ 

Caregiver attendance at Ubuntu events

▪ 

Home visit

▪ 

Home assessment

ECD  

▪  ▪ 

Basic proficiency in literacy and development Annual progress

▪ 

Proficiency assessment

▪ 

PALS, Ages and Stages, Numeracy TBD

Primary  

▪  ▪ 

Literacy/numeracy Annual progress

▪ 

Proficiency assessment

▪ 

PALS

▪ 

Student on track to meet requirements for at least 1 of 3 paths (university, FET, apprenticeship)

▪ 

Education plan

▪ 

IEP

Making  progress  

▪ 

Yearly progress on KM metrics

▪ 

Education plan

▪ 

IEP

Access  

▪ 

Student takes 1 of 3 routes to success after secondary school

▪ 

Survey

▪ 

Scholarship / ‘alumni’ tracking

Progress  

▪ 

Student is on track to complete study on chosen route

▪ 

Survey

▪ 

Scholarship status programme

Stable,  healthy   individuals  

Vision   Dental   Mental  health  

Progress  through   the  educa'on   system  

Anticipated but incomplete Method

HIV/AIDS   Physical  health  

Stable,  suppor've   environment  

Complete and in use

On  track   Secondary  

Post-­‐Secondary  

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Impact  ques'ons  to  guide  impact  analysis   Context setting ▪  How do incoming clients’ health, household, and education compare with those of other communities in South Africa and other geographies?

Aggregate outcomes ▪  What percent of Ubuntu’s former clients over 22 are healthy with a stable income, and how does that compare to community stats? ▪  Are Ubuntu’s current clients on track to achieve stable health and incomes? Healthy individuals ▪  How does physical health improve over time? ▪  What is the incidence of new HIV and TB vs. that of the overall population? ▪  What is treatment adherence vs. that of the overall population? ▪  What is treatment success rate vs. that of the overall population?

Economic case ▪  What does it cost to raise an Ubuntu child vs. a child in other geographies? ▪  What is the net economic contribution of a successful Ubuntu client vs. an adult without stable health and income?

Household Stability ▪  How quickly does Ubuntu secure the home against physical or health risks? Educational progress ▪  How do clients’ progress over time compared to where they would have been without Ubuntu? ▪  How does clients’ annual yearly progress compare to that of comparable students (e.g. same community) ▪  How do clients’ matric results compare to those of others in their schools? ▪  How do Ubuntu clients perform in tertiary education?

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We  conduct  two  types  of  analysis:  progress  tracking  and  benchmark   comparison   Questions this addresses A

▪  Is the individual on track to On/off track

becoming a healthy adult with a stable income? ▪  What is the aggregate trend over time?

Impact target vs. baseline

§  At any point, how do clients’ health, household and education indicators compare to those outside Ubuntu: - vs. external population? - vs. Ubuntu client starting point?

Correction required?

Eye conditions?

Correction?

Uncorrected

Minor None Corrected

Not required Vision Minor

Uncorrected

Major

Corrected

Major

Not required

B

B ART adherence %

*

*

*

*

19

A  

On/off  track  measurement  methodology  

On/off track

Approach

▪  Define what it means to be ‘on’ or

▪  Develop a logic tree for each metric

‘off’ track –  A client who is “on track” is a client who is heading along a trajectory that leads Ubuntu to believe he/she will reach ultimate success –  This means that the client is sufficiently healthy, in a sufficiently stable and secure household and making sufficient educational progress to be heading towards success

HIV status?

Treatment?

Adherence?

CD4 count?

Adherent Negative

ART adherence

On treatment

Positive

Unknown

Few missed doses

>350

Non-adherent

250-350

Not on treatment <250

▪  Automate (build into model) so user answers only one row of questions per client

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B  

When  appropriate  external  comparisons  are  unavailable,  an  internal   baseline  is  developed  to  measure  Ubuntu’s  impact  on  clients’  lives  by   aggrega'ng  the  star'ng  posi'ons  of  clients  when  they  join  Ubuntu  

Imaginary client: Thuli Health Environmental stability Educational progress Thuli’s actual progress

Educational environment

•  Aggregating the gains across Ubuntu’s clients produces an aggregate measure of impact Ubuntu impact on Thuli Baseline: progress Thuli would have made without Ubuntu

Thuli’s starting point on joining Ubuntu 10

•  ‘Indexing the starting point’ allows for the fact that clients start at different points below and above the baseline

11

12

13

14

15

•  This enables deeper strategic analyses, e.g., how do clients progress if they join Ubuntu below vs. above the baseline?

Age

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Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Methodology for impact assessment Pathway outcomes Comparative outcomes Economic impact analysis

22

HEALTH

Key  findings  of  health  impact   With Ubuntu’s support, clients live more stable, healthy lives Clients whose health is on/slightly off/significantly off track Percent

100%

96%  

of clients adhere to ART vs. 57% in Port Elizabeth and 75% in SA

0.9%  

incidence of HIV at Ubuntu is lower than SA average of 2.2%

92%  

of clients adhere to TB treatment vs. 56% in the Eastern Cape

On track Slightly off track

22 Significantly off track

76 *

* 55 * 38

0

1

2

* 22 3

* 18 4

94%  

of TB treatment at Ubuntu is successful, vs. 41% in the Eastern Cape, 76% in SA, 80% globally

Years with Ubuntu 1 Only clients with records for both HIV and TB contribute to the data set for overall health outcomes

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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AGGREGATE HEALTH

With  Ubuntu’s  support,  clients  live  more  stable,  healthy  lives   Clients whose health is on/slightly off/significantly off track1 Percent 100%=

▪  Within 4 years,

On track

82% of Ubuntu clients are tracking towards success vs. 24% on joining

Slightly off track

2 Significantly off track

▪  The longer a

76 55 38

0

1

2

22

18

3

4

client spends with Ubuntu, the greater his/her chance of becoming a healthy, stable adult

Years with Ubuntu 1 Only clients with records for both HIV and TB contribute to the data set for overall health outcomes

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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HEALTH

Ubuntu  ensures  that  HIV-­‐infected  clients  can  live  stable  lives   Clients whose management and awareness of their HIV status causes them to be on/slightly off/significantly off track Percent 100% =

▪  Within 4 years, 85% of Ubuntu clients are managing the disease or their status well vs. 24% on joining

On track Slightly off track

0 0

Significantly off track

1

76

2 55

0

▪  The longer a

1

49

2

36

0 15

3

4

client spends with Ubuntu, the greater his/her chance of managing HIV effectively

Years with Ubuntu SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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HOUSEHOLD STABILITY

Clients  join  Ubuntu  from  unstable,  unsafe  homes   On/off track households Percent

On track1

100% =

Significantly off track

Slightly off track

▪  76% of Ubuntu Current data set and relatively recent introduction of home assessment forms means that baseline can be created, but time series is not yet available

76

0

clients join from unsafe and/or unstable homes

▪  Ubuntu helps clients secure their homes, e.g., install burglar bars, doors

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

4

Years with Ubuntu 1 Defined according to security against intrusion of persons and/or the elements, hygiene, and receipt of support services

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

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Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Methodology for impact assessment Pathway outcomes Comparative outcomes Economic impact analysis

27

HEALTH

Ubuntu  helps  to  prevent  new  HIV  infec'on   HIV incidence rate at Ubuntu vs South Africa Percent of HIV- client who become HIV+ vs. annual incidence rate

Ubuntu incidence age 15-24

▪ 

2.4x  

SA incidence age 15-24

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; HRS 2005

Ubuntu clients contract HIV at less than half the rate of other young South Africans

2.2

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HEALTH

Ubuntu  clients  treated  for  TB  show  a  higher  success  rate  than  in   other  popula'ons   TB treatment success rate1 Percent

Ubuntu

Eastern Cape average

94

-­‐53%  

South Africa average

-­‐18%  

World average

-­‐8%  

▪  Ubuntu clients show the highest rate of success in TB treatment

1 Treatment success refers to elimination of TB infection by the end of the course of treatment

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; WHO; Thom A: Poor TB control equals XDR TB

29

HEALTH

Ubuntu  clients  adhere  much  beNer  to  HIV  and  TB  treatment    than  those  without  Ubuntu   support   TB treatment adherence Percent

ART adherence Percent

Ubuntu

961 Ubuntu

PE average

92

-­‐39%  

KS District Eastern Cape SA average

-­‐21%  

§  Ubuntu clients are more adherent than other

§  Ubuntu clients are more adherent than other

§ 

§ 

communities 96% of clients are above the threshold required to keep viral load undetectable

communities Clients are kept from developing resistant strains through Ubuntu’s intensive support

1 Calculated as share of clients on treatment who are fully adherent to treatment; non-adherent clients became adherent within 1 year; each of these clients in the 96% is fully adherent – and hence above the individual adherence threshold of 95% to keep viral load at undetectable levels

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; 2010 Avert; NMMU thesis; USAID; Kandel TR et al: The prevalence of and reasons for interruption of anti-tuberculosis treatment by patients at Mbekweni Health Centre in the King Sabata Dalindyebo (KSD) District

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EDUCATION

Key  findings  of  educa'onal  impact   Ubuntu clients pass matric at more than twice the rate of their school peers Matric pass rate Percent 37%  

1  year  

2  years  

72

35

Ubuntu clients1

16%  

Ubuntu clients gain 1 year in English proficiency in a school year vs 0.5 year in the community

Clients are 2 years closer to reading at age level than nonclients

Improvement in 1 year in mathematics proficiency by clients

Community2

1 % of Ubuntu’s After School Programme clients passing matric 2 Weighted average of schools (from which Ubuntu clients are drawn) pass rates excluding Ubuntu clients

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; Department of Education 2009 matric pass rate schools figures

31

EDUCATION

On  average,  Ubuntu  clients  are  two  years    ahead  of  their  peers  in  reading   Distribution of scores in community survey

Distribution of student years behind age level for reading1 Percent ~2  years  

Community school1 average (7.5 years behind age level)

Ubuntu client average (5.5 years behind age level)

Share of students %

Ubuntu clients outperform their community peers by ~2 reading years equivalent

14

13 12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Years behind reading at age level 1 Kip McGrath assessment of >1000 students from community schools

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data;

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EDUCATION

Ubuntu  students  improve  their  English  proficiency  at  twice  the  rate  of  other  students  in   the  community   No. of students making gains in 1 year of Ubuntu English support1 No. of students (% of total students) 92 (45%) Students outside of Ubuntu typically gain ~0.5 years per year of schooling2

▪ 

45% of Ubuntu clients get gain 1+ years per year of support, far above the gains made by students without Ubuntu support

▪ 

Average gain of Ubuntu clients is 1 year per year of schooling

50 (25%)

23 (11%)

22 (11%) 16 (8%) No. of Students

Negative

0 – 0.25

0.25 – 0.5

0.5 - 1

1+

Gains made in English proficiency level over 1 year1 Years 1 According to Kip McGrath proficiency assessments in 2010 2 Calculated from proficiency and school grade in >1000 student survey by Ubuntu

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; After School Programme 2010 register

33

EDUCATION

Ubuntu  clients  progress  a  full  year  in  one  year  vs.   0.5  years  for  other  students  in  the  community   Average gains made by students in 1 school year for English proficiency Years

Ubuntu clients overtake students without Ubuntu to achieve greater academic success1 Progress from 10 to 18

-­‐.5  

Reading age

Ubuntu Clients

Non-Ubuntu Clients in the community

1 Assuming client joins Ubuntu at age 10, at same starting point as other student (reading age of 5)

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; After School Programme 2010 register

Age

34

EDUCATION

Ubuntu  clients  also  out-­‐perform  their  peers  in  mathema'cs   Distribution of students years behind age level for reading1 Percent

Community school1 average (~9%)

Distribution of scores in community survey

Ubuntu client average (~11%)

Share of students %

▪ 

TLTA2

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ubuntu clients out-perform their community peers in mathematics

50

Score on mathematics assessment %

1 KipmacGrath assessment of >1000 students from community schools 2 Proficiency too low to assess

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; After School Programme register

35

EDUCATION

Ubuntu  students  achieve  large  gains  in  a  year  in  mathema'cs   No. of students scoring in range for Kip McGrath math assessment 100% = 75+ 50-75

176 2

176

5

9

25-50

▪ 

Average gain made in 1 year is 16%

▪ 

In 1 year, the number of clients achieving above 50% grew from 7 to 25

16

0-25

84

60 11

12 Grade

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data; After School Programme 2010 data

36

Contents   Ubuntu’s mission and objective Context of the Ubuntu community The Ubuntu model Ubuntu’s impact Economic impact analysis

37

Economic  analysis  approach   What does it cost to raise an Ubuntu child relative to other geographies?

What is the benefit/cost to society from his/her success?

Lifetime cost of raising a child (middle income family)

Lifetime contribution/cost of individual

+Y  

+Z   Contribution

+X  

vs Cost Ubuntu JHB

USA

▪  Ubuntu cost bottom-up vs. top-down

▪ 

Ubuntu

UK

benchmarks of cost of raising children in UK and US and JHB (bottom-up) Ubuntu cost added to existing cost to family/society of raising a child

▪  Two hypothetical lives with/without ▪ 

Ubuntu transformation Calculated cost/contribution to society of hypothetical lives

Bottom-up: modelled using summation of costs of major Components in raising a child (education, housing, healthcare, food, clothing); Top down: existing total cost estimate from life insurer or other institution

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data;

Non-Ubuntu

38

ECONOMICS

In  other  geographies,  it  costs  1.5  -­‐  4  'mes  more  to     raise  a  child  than  with  Ubuntu  (USD  basis)   Total cost per child1 $’0006

Cost to raise with public college

 4x   500

2.5x  

1.8x   230 40 35

Private college/ College in residence

2.5x  

Public college

320

1.5x  

300

190

50

Ubuntu2

Ubuntu programme cost Private college incl. residence

3.5x   450

125

Scholarship

Johannesburg3

UK4

USA5

Middle-income families

1 Cost of raising child from age 0 through 22, including four years of university education (private college in residence and public college) 2 Programme cost divided over no. of clients accessing activity/service + cost to raise a child in SA in low-income family from Stats SA; Ubuntu client joining Ubuntu at age 14 3 Modeled bottom-up using assumptions of middle-income family (monthly food, rental, clothing, health insurance, education - KES school Johannesburg - for family with annual income over R200k pa) 4 Taken top-down for middle-income cost to raise a child in London, including university tuition fees of £9k pa (capped for local students) and additional residence cost (cost of private, in residence college for foreign students - ~$30k pa) 5 Taken top-down for middle income cost to raise a child in US, including public college ($9k pa from USDA) or private college such as Amherst(~$60k pa) 6 Using exchange rate $1 US = R7.868

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

39

ECONOMICS

It  costs  Ubuntu  ~USD5,500  a  year  to  provide  a  client  with  a  comprehensive   service  offering1,  excluding  ter'ary  studies  (USD  basis)   Scholarship programme costs

Total annual programme operating cost per client with full suite of services2 $ 000, 2010 14.5 0.1

0.1

0.5

0.1

9

0.1

For college (average 4-5 years)

1.2

3.4 5.5

Education support

Health

Household stability

M&E

Finance

Programmes

1 Not all clients require this full suite of services 2 For primary client receiving full suite of services from Ubuntu 3 Programme operating costs exclude development cost (External relations) 4 R7.868 – 1$ US

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

Human Resources

Admin

From joining to career

Total

Support services3

40

ECONOMICS

A  child  raised  by  Ubuntu  has  a  significant  posi've  economic  impact  on  society   (USD  basis)   Net lifetime contribution/(cost) to society excluding Ubuntu cost $’0001, Real 2010 195 “Thuli” – Ubuntu client

▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪ 

HIV+ Adherent to ART University degree – BCom Accounting Starts working age 22 Pays for own home Stays safe from TB Lives to 50 Supports own children Pays taxes Increases earnings rapidly in 20s, tapering off by 40

“Mandla” – non-Ubuntu

▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪  ▪ 

HIV+ Non-adherent to ART Doesn’t get a job Receives an RDP house at age 25 Gets TB 3 times Lives to 35 Has 1 child by age 24, for whom he receives child support grants

-2 Ubuntu client

1 R7.868 – 1$ US

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data

Not Ubuntu client

41

OUTPUT

The  cost  of  raising  a  child  through  the  Ubuntu  Model  is  small  rela've  to  the  benefit   of  that  child  growing  into  a  healthy  adult  with  a  stable  income  (USD  basis)   Cost/benefit comparison $’0001, real 2010 204 90 9

Lifetime cost of Ubuntu programme support (age 14-22)

50 40

Net societal contribution of successful Ubuntu client

Cost of Ubuntu support

114

Lifetime cost of Ubuntu scholarship programme (age 18-22)

Net “value creation” from investing in Ubuntu

•  A  $1  investment  in  Ubuntu  (including  the  scholarship  programme)   produces  a  net  gain  for  society  of  $2.20     •  A  $1  investment  in  an  Ubuntu  Child  results  in  real  lifeCme  earnings   of  $8.70  for  the  client   1 R7.868 – 1$ US

SOURCE: McKinsey and Company Analysis: Ubuntu Education Fund Data;

42


Ubuntu Impact Report 112811