EUROPE THE FUTURE OF THE V4
– dependence of given countries from the group on larger EU countries, which is about integrating their own statehoods into the bodies of larger countries. Of course, it does not cover all aspects. Culturally, from the point of the identity, smaller countries will always remain distinct. Still, their key interests could be subordinated to interests expressed, for instance, by large countries in the European forum, and it is difficult to suppose in advance that these interests would be identical. In other words, a shared future, or precisely a collaboration of medium and small countries, provides the chance for a non-confrontational instrument to satisfy particular interests. It is about guaranteeing negotiating countries an equal status, in order to let them express their voice on the forum. In the European Union, currently emerging from the crisis, an apparent distinction of different groups of countries – Scandinavian, Baltic, possibly Mediterranean, and perhaps also those which boast a high rating from the credit agencies – is necessary and natural also for countries functioning in the framework of the Visegrad Four. What is more, the latter group must aspire to enlarge the circle of its supporters when negotiating any given interest. Nevertheless, the enlargement of the group might be a longer process, for potential members, such as Ukraine or parts of Balkans, which are in different phases of European integration. Coalitions built upon the Visegrad structure could also include countries, which today stay in the middle, such as Romania and Bulgaria – in the EU but without full rights. Natural supporters are also Slovenia and Croatia, as well as the Baltic states, which have already worked out a common
position with Poland several times in the past. It is imaginable that they could be tied with Scandinavian countries and Central Europe at once. Central Europe is a concept that is different locally. For instance, during one conference at Oxford, Timothy Snyder demonstrated how this notion was used by those struggling for their own identity. These days, the concept has moved to the East – it is frequently and voluntarily used by the Ukrainians and by all wishing to find themselves in a “real” Europe. To put it differently, we need to think not only in categories of the four, but a larger group. It would seem to me even more natural, as it could help to resolve conflicts between the four countries. The current situation, particularly in Hungary, can provoke group paralysis. In the end, every country is undergoing another phase of its internal political development. Putting these processes in the wider framework of multinational cooperation would not influence the rest of the group to such a serious extent. Obviously, we are not talking about closer integration of these countries. Besides, closer integration, if the political process in the EU will eventually take shape, going further by means of one currency and some progress in fiscal and political integration. This larger European integration will not be substituted by regional developments. Nevertheless, groups of countries – such as the Visegrad Group – could later on reinforce the integration by strengthening common cultural and energy projects. Thus the quadruple has a wide space for investment projects and can make negotiating a common stance in the European Union easier. Translated by Anna Wójcik
Is the Dream of Visegrad Dead?
MARTIN BÚTORA
Slovak sociologist, writer, professor and diplomat.
I
f we speak about the EU crisis over the past three years, there has not been any Visegrad cooperation”, says Jacques Rupnik, one of the most prominent experts on Central Europe. According to him, each V4 country has faced different political situations – a Czech inclination towards British style euroscepticism, a Hungarian emphasis on sovereignty and national values, and a Polish wish to participate in finding solutions to the crisis. Edward Lucas from “The Economist” goes even further: “Look at the European Union and NATO from the East in 2012 and disappointment, not admiration, will be the dominant emotion,” he writes. “In 2012 the Easterners will start looking elsewhere.” 8
Not exactly a very promising prospect, at least for those who believed that the Visegrad model helped to bring Central European states into the community of Western democracies. To paraphrase the famous words of Lord Ismay, the first secretary general of NATO, Visegrad served the same goals for Central Europe as NATO had for Western Europe: “To keep the Russians out”. Securing the departure of Soviet troops and the abolition of the Warsaw Pact, and keeping “the Americans in” instead of the Germans, helping to stabilize the American presence in Europe by entering NATO. And finally, keeping “the demons of Central Europe” – aggressive nationalist populists – under control. Is it all over? Not quite, the advocates of the V4 claim. In the past several years, new projects have appeared on the scene: the “Visegrad plus” format, aimed at broadening the horizons and impact of the V4; support of EU’s enlargement, with the focus on Western Balkan countries; and a plan to create a new military battlegroup of the Visegrad Group led by Poland. Moreover, there are still common interests – like energy security; conditions of the next financial framework of the EU after the year 2013; the accent put on a strong and effective cohesion policy primarily focused on the less developed regions of the EU. Visegrad has also served as a platVISEGRAD INSIGHT 1|2012