51 PAIVAND Vol. 18 Issue 1121 Friday August 2, 2013
1392 مرداد11 جمعه1122 شماره.سال هجدهم
Iran president’s inner circle has Western accent (AP) — Just days after Hasan Rouhani’s election victory in Iran, his top advisers and allies gathered for a closed-door strategy session at a think tank run by the new president. The group, lugging spread sheets, notes and policy papers, also carried something new into the mix — an array of degrees from Western universities. Soon after Rouhani’s swearingin Sunday, he is expected to unveil key members of his government and give more clarity about his behindthe-scenes brain trust. In all likelihood, the core of his team will include figures whose academic pedigrees run through places such as California, Washington and London. The Western-looking credentials of Rouhani’s inner circle are no surprise. Rouhani himself studied in Scotland. What remains unclear, however, is how much they could actually influence Iranian policies and foster potential outreach diplomacy such as direct talks with the U.S. or possible breakthroughs in wider negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. “Studying in the West doesn’t mean you would make concessions to the West,” said Rasool Nafisi, an Iranian affairs analyst at Strayer University in Virginia. “What it does mean is that the level of understanding and ability to pick up nuances are much higher. The next step is seeing how much of that can translate into changes at the top with the ruling clerics, where it really counts.” On many levels, this is the fundamental question as the clock starts on Rouhani’s presidency after eight years of the hectoring style of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. There is little doubt that Rouhani will bring a far calmer and more measured approach. That alone may help with efforts to rebuild strained ties with Europe and open new possibilities for deal-making after the expected restart of nuclear talks with world powers. But Rouhani’s Westerneducated political entourage is not about to steer Iran in a completely new direction after his election victory last month. Rouhani, a cleric and former top nuclear negotiator, does not stand against the Islamic system or the firm controls at the top: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard. Khamenei has final say in all key matters, including Rouhani’s selections for key Cabinet posts such as the foreign and intelligence ministers. That leaves Rouhani — effectively the international face of Iran — with the task of projecting a new image of dialogue rather than diatribes on the world stage. Inside Iran, Rouhani has to adopt the role of salesman: trying to get Khamenei and the ruling clerics to buy into his views that interaction with Washington and its allies could bring dividends such as steps to ease tightening economic sanctions.
Many of those being considered for Cabinet posts share Rouhani’s approach, including a former deputy foreign minister, Mahmoud Vaezi, who holds degrees in electrical engineering from California State University, Sacramento and San Jose State University. He began his doctorate in foreign relations at Louisiana State University but finished the degree in Poland. Vaezi was head of the foreign ministry’s European and American affairs section from 1990-97 under reformist President Mohammad Khatami. In recent years, Vaezi has been a senior figure at Rowhani’s Center for Strategic Research. “The potential candidates ... are those who understand international relations and understand the language of the West,” said Tehran-based political analyst Behrouz Shojaei. “This shows Rouhani is serious in seeking to ease tensions with the outside world and improve Iran’s economy.” Another potential contender for foreign minister is Mohammad Javad Zarif, who did postgraduate studies at San Francisco State University and obtained a doctorate in international law and policy at the University of Denver. Zarif also raised his profile in the U.S. as a diplomat at Iran’s U.N. Mission in New York during a five-year posting that ended in 2007. In one of his last public events, Zarif was a headline speaker at a conference in New Brunswick, New Jersey, on conflict resolution whose participants included the current U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. Meanwhile, Hossein Mousavian, currently a research scholar at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, is likely to hold a key foreign policy adviser role. Mousavian also graduated from Sacramento State. Officials with academic roots in the West are nothing new in the Middle East. Many Gulf Arab leaders and top officials studied in Europe or the U.S. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to high school outside Philadelphia and returned to study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Jordan’s King
Abdullah II attended boarding schools in England and Massachusetts and then moved on to Britain’s royal military academy Sandhurst. But Iran’s elected leadership — the presidency and top parliamentary posts — has had far fewer Western-educated figures. In the years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Western credentials were viewed with suspicion. Ahmadinejad, who studied in Iran, has strongly favored advisers who also have homegrown academic backgrounds. Rouhani’s administration could mark a strong break and include advisers whose connections with the West straddle before and after the Islamic Revolution. Among them is Rouhani’s younger brother, Hossein Fereidoun, who is helping the president-elect put together his Cabinet list. Fereidoun was a member of the security team when the Islamic Revolution’s leaders, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, returned from exile in France in 1979. He later served in Iran’s U.N. Mission. Rouhani previously went by the family name Fereidoun, but dropped it in an apparent attempt to hide from authorities before the Islamic Revolution. The review of potential candidates for economic roles includes Chamber of Commerce president Mohammad Nahavandian, who holds a doctorate in economics from George Washington University, and Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, who holds an economics doctorate from Paisley in Britain, and was spokesman of Rouhani’s campaign office. A possible candidate for the critical oil ministry post is Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, a former deputy oil minister and president of Iran’s state oil company, who has an engineering degree from California State Polytechnic University. But speculation was growing that Rouhani could look to a former oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, who was ousted when Ahmadinejad took office in 2005. Some semiofficial Iranian news agencies, including ISNA, cited sources saying that Rouhani will tap a former
defense minister, Mohammed Forouzandeh, as the chief nuclear negotiator. Such a choice would bring a relative novice in international dialogue into a critical role. Rouhani’s aides have not commented on the report, and other names such as former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati have been raised in the Iranian media. Other noteworthy possibilities include Ali Jannati as head of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, where the wide-ranging mandate includes oversight of foreign media in Iran. Jannati is considered a moderate, but his father, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, is an ultra hard-line cleric who often leads the nationally broadcast Friday prayers from Tehran University.
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Iran may achieve nuclear breakout capability in mid-2014 Bloomberg- Iran may achieve the “critical capability” to process low-enriched uranium into fuel for a nuclear weapon without detection by international inspectors by mid2014, according to a report by a research group. Iran would reach this capability by acting on plans to install thousands of additional enrichment centrifuges at its Natanz and Fordow sites, according to David Albright, a former nuclear inspector, and Christina Walrond of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. Preventing Iran from achieving the capability to break out from nuclear safeguards will require international efforts to limit the number and type of centrifuges built by the nation, according to the report issued yesterday. “Although increasing the frequency and type of inspections at the enrichment plants is important, it is by no means sufficient to prevent Iran from achieving critical capability,” according to the analysts. President Barack Obama has said the U.S. will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. America and other world powers are seeking an initial agreement halting Iran’s production of 20 percent enriched uranium -- one processing step short of weapons-grade -- and removing the stockpile of such mediumenriched uranium so that it can’t
be diverted for weapons. Enrichment Focus The institute’s report focuses instead on Iran’s production of low-enriched uranium, usable as reactor fuel for power generators, which may be further enriched to bomb grade given time and sufficient centrifuges. Albright and Walrond cited scenarios in which current safeguard measures would be insufficient to detect quickly an Iranian decision to divert enough low-enriched uranium to make weapons-grade material for one or more nuclear weapons. “Breakout times at critical capability would be so short that there simply would not be enough time to organize an international diplomatic or military response,” the analysts said. Iran’s leaders have said its nuclear program is for civilian purposes. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hasn’t made a decision to produce a bomb, though the nation is developing its capability to do so. Enrichment facilities in Fordow, near the holy city of Qom, and Natanz, 130 miles southeast of Tehran, are run by Iran and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran says the 20 percent enriched uranium, which has been of the most immediate global concern, is being processed to provide fuel for a research reactor used
Iran seeks key position on U.N. disarmament committee
(Reuters) - Iran is campaigning for a key position on a U.N. General Assembly committee that deals with disarmament and international security amid strong criticism from Israel and others who accuse Tehran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Iran is competing against Kuwait to be the rapporteur of the U.N. General Assembly’s
First Committee for its 68th session, which begins in October, U.N. diplomats said. The rapporteur reports on the proceedings of the 193-member committee. A spokesman for Iran’s U.N. mission confirmed the country’s bid on Tuesday. Asked why Tehran was interested in the position, he said: “It’s a normal routine by a member state.”
Iran grants Syria $3.6 billion credit to buy oil products
(AFP) — Iran has agreed to supply Damascus with $3.6 billion in oil in exchange for the right to invest in the country, Syria’s state news agency SANA said on Tuesday. “An agreement was signed (on Monday) in Tehran... by the Iranian and Syrian central banks, granting Syria a credit line worth $3.6 billion,” it reported. The deal stipulates that Syria will pay back the cost of the oil loan “through Iranian investments of various kinds in Syria”, said SANA. It did not elaborate on what kind of investments Tehran would make. Iran is the main regional backer of Syrian President Bashar alAssad, whose regime has fought for more than 28 months to crush a protest movement that morphed into a bloody insurgency after the army cracked down against dissent. Oil production in Syria has crashed over the course of the country’s war, which the United Nations says has killed more than 100,000 people. Previously a small energy exporter, Syria is now forced to import oil and by-products, Oil Minister Sleiman Abbas said in May.
The First Committee considers all disarmament and international security matters, cooperation in the maintenance of international peace and security, as well as principles governing disarmament and the regulation of armaments. Western powers accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for generating electricity and other peaceful purposes. Iran says U.N. sanctions imposed over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs are illegal and refuses to comply with them. “Allowing Iran to be on the U.N. committee dealing with nuclear disarmament and weapons proliferation is like inviting Assad, the Syrian dictator responsible for the death of 100,000 of his own people, to be the head of the population census bureau,” Israeli U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor said in a statement. Israel is widely believed to possess the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal. Earlier this month Iran withdrew its candidacy for the U.N. Human Rights Council without explanation. Tehran’s bid for a spot on the 47-nation Geneva-based human rights body was sharply criticized by the United States and Israel. Syria is still in the race for a seat on the Human Rights Council amid criticism by Western states. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government and rebels are locked in a civil war that started more than two years ago.