Pacific Sun Weekly 08.26.2011 Section 1

Page 11

original sales-tax estimates. (Critics have said SMART has been too optimistic from the start and the over-optimism continues.) Arnold raised another caution about the district’s plan to raise about $160 million in bond money. “It’s a critical issue,â€? Arnold said. “How much more in interest rates,â€? he asked the board, “is it going to cost to issue bonds while there is a repeal measure that is likely to be on the ballot in June 2012? That is a clear risk to [the ďŹ nancing forecast] and you need to take account of it.â€? That’s a reference to the RepealSMART effort to collect enough signatures to qualify a measure on the ballot that would give voters the choice to rescind the quarter-cent sales tax in the SMART district. The board did not discuss possible interest rate issues. SMART would like to go to MTC in September and also proceed with its plan to seek bond funds and issue a call for bids on its construction program in the coming months. Mansourian noted in his presentation that following that timeline could mean that SMART will create about 1,000 jobs this autumn, which could be part of an economic-beneďŹ t talking-point list to counter critics who want the sales tax repealed. Exactly how many signatures Repeal SMART needs to qualify for the ballot is an open question—as is the percentage of votes a measure to rescind the sales tax would need to pass. When the ballot-measure plan ďŹ rst went public, the number was 37,314—a threshold

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projects across the country face virtually the same challenges as SMART—and some of the same criticisms. Those same criticisms also were leveled at BART and even the Golden Gate Bridge before and during their construction. To balance the budget for MTC, Mansourian projected delaying the start of operation by up to two years. If bids come in under budget estimates, which he says is likely, the saved money can go toward shortening the time before trains operate. Brown says she thinks most people will continue to support the train vision, despite the high-decibel criticism. “I think people are saying some questions have been raised, and I didn’t want it to be an initial operating segment, I wanted it to be a full [line], but I understand the economy, and just because I can’t get the whole loaf, I don’t want you to stop moving toward the whole loaf.â€? Creating an immutable ďŹ nancial and operating forecast may be unattainable in the early stages of the project. It may be undesirable. Wait for the bids, say Mansourian and board members. It may be that SMART needs to move constantly and adjust as it goes, or, as one woman at the Aug. 17 meeting said, the district can become caught in a paralysis by analysis. ✚

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serious questionsâ€? about the voter threshold. She says SMART is looking for guidance from Sacramento. “When Proposition 218 was passed, it was a very serious move to make sure that the two-thirds majority held to pass taxes.â€? It makes little sense to require a two-thirds vote to pass a tax but only a simple majority to rescind one, say Brown and other SMART supporters. But Mitchell says the intent of Propositions 13 and 218 “was to make it more difďŹ cult to raise taxes than to lower them.â€? Mitchell and RepealSMART say they just want voters to have another chance to approve or reject the tax measure that funds SMART because the project isn’t what voters cast ballots for in 2008. Even if SMART presents a balanced funding plan for the initial segment (which Mansourian has accomplished), Mitchell says he can’t support a train that runs just from Santa Rosa to San Rafael because the ridership will be too low to provide a ďŹ nancial foundation. But a look at the estimated return on fare box revenue for a SMART system is in the same ballpark as Golden Gate Transit. And all public transit projects need subsidies. Rescinding the sales tax, say Repeal SMART backers, would force SMART to rethink funding alternatives and its vision for the train system. SMART supporters say the train system is like many other large public works projects, especially ones that encounter a tough economy. Rail projects and other public works

of 10 percent of the votes in the SMART district in the previous gubernatorial election. But RepealSMART did some legal digging and came up with a lower bar. Included in the wording of Proposition 218, a follow-up to Proposition 13, may be language meaning only 5 percent of voter signatures are needed. Clay Mitchell, a member of Repeal SMART, says his group is looking for a deďŹ nitive answer, but at least for now is shooting for the 10 percent target within the six months allowed for collecting signatures. Even the election ofďŹ cials in Marin and Sonoma counties are uncertain about the signature threshold and are researching what is being called vague wording in Prop. 218. Also vague and uncertain is whether a ballot measure to rescind a sales tax in the SMART district, which covers two counties, needs a simple majority or a two-thirds majority to pass. “It’s an open question about the 5 percent,â€? says Marin County Registrar of Voters Elaine Ginnold, “because there is the elections code and the [state] constitution, with Proposition 218.â€? In addition to researching the threshold to get on the ballot, the county counsels in Marin and Sonoma “are exploring the issueâ€? of whether a rescind measure would need a two-thirds vote or a simple majority. “This kind of a measure is rare,â€? says Ginnold. “There are a lot of unanswered questions. The attorneys are looking at all of the ramiďŹ cations.â€? Valerie Brown, SMART board chairwoman and Sonoma County supervisor, “has

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AUGUST 26 - SEPTEMBER 1, 2011 PACIFIC SUN 11

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