McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report | Fourth Quarter 2014 by McGuire Real Estate

FOURTH QUARTER 2014 Q U A R T E R LY R E P O R T

* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 1 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Page 2 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Table of Contents Letter from the President

Page 4

Regional Market Trends

Page 5

The Luxury Market

Page 8

San Francisco County

Page 12

San Mateo County

Page 16

Marin County

Page 18

Napa County

Page 20

Sonoma County

Page 22

Alameda County

Page 24

Contra Costa County

Page 26

Counties Represented

Napa Sonoma Marin

Alameda San Francisco

Contra Costa

San Mateo

Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Letter from the President Prices Up, Sales Low But Stable in Q4 2014 Much like the third quarter of 2014, the fourth quarter showed few surprises. Both high average sales prices and low sales volume—products of strong demand and depleted inventory—continued across the Bay Area. For sellers, these combined trends continued to spell major profits. All seven counties we represent saw year-over-year average home sales price gains of at least 7 percent. Meanwhile, inventory shortages continue to be a major factor for prospective buyers. This quarter’s sales volume numbers were, by and large, very similar to those of Q4 2013. An emerging trend found in Q4 2014 was that of buyers’ increased due diligence, taking the time to thoroughly investigate the market more so than they did earlier in the year. This was reflected in the average days on market (DOM), which rose to 40 days this quarter—a slight jump from the average 36 DOM in Q3—but in line with the seasonal equilibrium of the previous year. San Francisco rebounded nicely from a down third quarter, leading the Bay Area with a $1.535 million average home sale price, up an impressive 12 percent from Q3 2014 and 14 percent from Q4 2013. This also occurred as the city saw a 9 percent sales volume gain from Q3. Average condominium sales prices in the city stayed above the $1 million mark for the fifth straight quarter, although sales volume was slightly down both from the previous quarter and from Q4 2013. With a host of massive construction projects underway, the condominium market is expected to open up nicely by 2016. Looking forward, we feel confident that the market will continue to act in very much the same fashion as it has over the past few years. What this means is sales prices will continue to rise as inventory remains very tight. A recent report from the California Association of REALTORs® (CAR) predicted a 5.2 percent rise in the state’s median home price in 2015, down from more than double that figure as predicted prior to 2014. However, CAR Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young added, “The state will continue to see a bifurcated market, with the San Francisco Bay Area outperforming other regions, thanks to a more vigorous job market and tighter housing supply.” Bay Area sellers are well aware that they can fetch record prices for their homes, but the uncertainty remains as to where they would move once transitioned to the buyer side of the fence. In all, this market remains red hot, and will continue to generate great returns for sellers for the foreseeable future. Still, opportunities are certainly at hand for those buyers willing to pay top dollar.

Charles Moore President and CEO

view this report on our web site: mcguire.com/quarterly_report

“An emerging trend found in Q4 2014 was that of buyers’ increased due diligence, taking the time to thoroughly investigate the market more so than they did earlier in the year.”

Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Regional Market Trends The fourth quarter of 2014 displayed little variation from the familiar, pervasive trends that have defined the Bay Area as the country’s hottest real estate market. Average home sales prices were up by at least 7 percent year-over-year in all seven counties we represent. This combined for an average home sales price of $879,131 across the Bay Area—up 11 percent from Q4 2013.

ALL REGIONS

While strong prices persisted, so did the dearth of inventory which has been another main story featured over the boom of the past few years. Sales volume, as a whole, was almost exactly in line with Q4 2013, with the 8,379 total homes sold declining just two percent yearover-year. Yet neither fourth quarter figure was impressive, and even the strong gains haven’t completely offset the past year’s reduction in available properties. The average 40 days on market (DOM) before a sale for the all seven counties combined remained tight, but did experience a subtle rise in overall turnaround time. This was mainly

due to buyers practicing a bit more due diligence than during the feeding frenzy of previous quarters. San Francisco was an area highlight with its average home sale reaching $1.535 million in Q4 2014, a 12 percent rise from the previous quarter and 14 percent rise from the previous year. This monetary gain was further bolstered by a 9 percent gain in sales volume from Q3 2013. San Mateo County, on the other hand, saw a 28 percent drop in sales volume from Q3. While there’s typically a drop-off from the more popular fall selling season, this number was rather severe. Peninsula homes continue to gain large offers. The problem is that home owners aren’t listing as frequently due to the legitimate concern of finding nearby homes to transition to. In all Q4 2014 was a rather ordinary quarter within a very extraordinary market.

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Quantity

Q4 2014

$879,131

$469

8379

change

-1%

16%

-17%

Q3 2014

$890,520

$464

10071

Q4 2014

$879,131

$469

8379

change

11%

-2%

Q4 2013

$792,431

$424

8564

23+24283047484949+21284852+24315049+24304750+22294546+20265149+23304748+22284649+21274548+20275357+24315652+25305264+253358+26316468+323865+32386268+31387270+37417477+36407069+344068 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

East Bay

North Bay

Mid-Peninsula

San Francisco

Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Market Share

8+13+2356A 14+21+44A Market Share by Unit

Despite its low sales volume, the Bay Area market still posted $7.366 billion in total sales this quarter. This number was up from $6.786 billion in Q4 2013. The East Bay led the way with 4,822 units sold for 56 percent of market share by unit and 43 percent of market share by cash volume. The North Bay posted 23 percent by unit and 21 percent by volume; MidPeninsula posted 13 percent by unit and 21 percent by volume; and San Francisco posted 8 percent by unit and 14 percent by volume. All of these regional percentages from Q4 2014 were almost identical to those of Q4 2013.

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 8%

San Francisco 14%

Mid-Peninsula 13%

Mid-Peninsula 21%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 21%

East Bay 56%

East Bay 44%

Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 1,898 Marin, Napa, Sonoma

East Bay: 4,722 Contra Costa, Alameda

San Francisco: 652

> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000

Mid-Peninsula: 1,107

< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000

Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

The Luxury Market

The Bay Area luxury market—defined by the top 10 percent of all homes sold—performed somewhat similarly to the rest of the regional market. Average home sale prices were up across the board, and even saw higher percentage gains than non-luxury properties. At the same time, low inventory caused sales volume to drop, offsetting gains from the market’s massive closings.

patterns with 111 closings this quarter. The average sales price of $4.082 million also bested all other regions with its 15 percent year-over-year gain. This included five sales above $12 million, including a $16.95 million sale in Woodside—the Bay Area’s largest transaction this quarter. The average 54 DOM hastened just slightly from recent trends.

San Francisco showed the most dominant performance, with its $4.53 million average home sale leading the way. This figure was a healthy rebound for the city’s luxury sector, equating to an 18 percent rise in average sales price from Q3 2014. The $4.53 million average was also a 9 percent gain year-over-year, making San Francisco the Bay Area’s only luxury region to see both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter gains. The 27 average DOM was a lightning-fast turnaround time for a market with homes at such high prices, and was 36 percent faster than Q4 2013. The 68 homes sold were consistent with Q4 2013 and were a 17 percent improvement on Q3 2014. Standout sales included $14 million and $11.75 million closings, both in Pacific Heights.

East Bay luxury homes averaged $1.633 million this quarter in what remains the most popular option for those looking for luxury living in the Bay Area, but without the big city price tag. The 479 homes sold—while not a thrilling number—was steadily in line with the previous year. The average 30 DOM remained low, as is always the case in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties.

Inventory remains glaringly scarce in the Mid-Peninsula, but the luxury sector showed little deviation from previous sales volume

The North Bay was perhaps the hardest hit by the inventory shortage, as showed in its 189 total sales, which fell 6 percent year-over-year and 16 percent quarter-over-quarter. Despite this setback, sales prices continued to rise, with the average luxury sale of $2.594 million up 14 percent from Q4 2013. The average 97 DOM was fairly typical.

Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

SAN FRANCISCO MID-PENINSULA EAST BAY NORTH BAY

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$4,529,507

$1,132

change

18%

17%

Q3 2014

$3,828,448

$1,055

Q4 2014

$4,529,507

$1,132

change

-1%

-36%

Q4 2013

$4,157,739

$1,042

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$4,081,716

111

$986

change

-4%

-15%

-2%

Q3 2014

$4,232,632

131

$955

Q4 2014

$4,081,716

111

$986

change

15%

-8%

12%

Q4 2013

$3,539,325

109

$884

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$1,633,500

479

$497

change

-3%

-14%

11%

-3%

Q3 2014

$1,687,743

555

$510

Q4 2014

$1,633,500

479

$497

change

11%

-1%

-14%

10%

Q4 2013

$1,475,750

486

$453

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$2,593,621

189

$770

change

-16%

13%

-3%

Q3 2014

$2,583,511

224

$793

Q4 2014

$2,593,621

189

$770

change

14%

-6%

-7%

Q4 2013

$2,281,423

202

104

$720

Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Bay Area Luxury Market Share The East Bay accounted for $782.447 million of the Bay Areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s $2.03 billion in luxury sales this quarter, claiming 39 percent market share by cash volume. The North Bay and Mid-Peninsula tallied 24 percent and 22 percent of market share by volume, respectively. San Francisco totaled 8 percent of all sales and 15 percent of all cash volume.

15+22+2439A 8+13+2257A Sales Volume

Quantity Sold

San Francisco 15%

San Francisco 8%

Mid-Peninsula 22%

Mid-Peninsula 13%

North Bay 24%

North Bay 22%

East Bay 39%

East Bay 56%

Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Sales Trends Luxury Homes

Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K

$500K-$1M

$1M-$2M

Price Per Square Foot

$2M-$3M

$3M-$5M

> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft

$5M+

>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft

San Francisco Single-Family Homes

Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013

< $500/sqft

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=40+510320 + 60 + 50 + 21+ =10460 + +39090 + 40+20+ =40+510320 + 60 + 50 + 21+ 4%

51%

32%

46%

39%

51%

32%

2.1%

1.9%

2.1%

Mid-Peninsula 0%

Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=30460 + 370 + 90 + 30+17+ =20430 + 380 + 100 + +5020+ =60470 + 343 + 73 + 43 + 13+ 3%

46%

37%

43%

38%

47%

9% 3%

1.7%

10%

34%

1.3%

East Bay 0%

Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=400450 + 140 + 14+2+1 =350470 + 160 + 14++101+ =460430 + 100 + 10+10+1+ 40%

36%

45%

46%

14%

47%

16%

43%

10%

1.42% .21% .02% 1.34% .21% .04% 0.87% .15% .06%

North Bay 0%

Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2013

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=370450 + 120 + 30+20+10+ =370450 + 120 + 30+20+10+ =430430 + 100 + 20+10+4+

37%

46%

11% 3%

2% 1%

37%

46%

11% 3%

2% .3%

11%

2% 1% .4%

43 %

Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

The San Francisco market deviated from patterns across the rest of the Bay Area, as is often the case. This had its upsides for both sellers and buyers in Q4. The average home sale price of $1.535 million increased 12 percent from Q3 2014 and 14 percent from Q4 2013. It was also the second-highest average sales price in the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s history, as well as a high among all seven Bay Area counties we represent. Sales volume also rebounded with the 652 homes sold equating to a 9 percent gain from Q3 2014. Despite being down 4 percent in sales volume from Q4 2013, the $3.381 billion in total yearly sales was a slight gain from 2013 and a 20 percent gain from 2012. The average 33 DOM this quarter was typical for the area and season.

SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$1,534,805

$747

change

12%

18%

Q3 2014

$1,368,721

$729

Q4 2014

$1,534,805

$747

change

14%

-8%

12%

Q4 2013

$1,350,104

$667

Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

64+ 46+ 65+ 57+ 59+ 47+ 65+ 59+ 65+ 51+ 69+ 62+ 68+ 49+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

49+ 52+4950+4649+4849+4857+5264+5868+6568+7077+7077 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted a strong 14 percent on top of initial asking price, up from 11 percent in Q4 2013. Sellers who tested the market still received 91 percent of their initial offer—a sign of just how in demand this market is—even as sellers continue to push its ceiling.

Sales Q4 2014 Q4 2013

without price change

with price change

14 11%

-9% -10%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Multimillion-dollar properties helped boost several year-over-year averages to heights that were more reflective of a few high sales impacting small data pools than a massive uptick in valuation. Such was the case in Cow Hollow, where a home sold for $6.9 million; Sea Cliff, where a home sold for $6 million; and the North Panhandle, had its biggest sale yet at $4.995 million. The 53 percent year-overyear gain in St. Francis Wood was part of a persistent trend that has seen a strong increase in $2 million properties sold over the past year.

Neighborhood

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Pacific Heights

$5,502,733

$5,695,143

-3%

Presidio Heights

$5,293,750

$5,751,200

-8%

Sea Cliff

$4,369,833

$2,683,750

63%

> $1000/sqft

Cow Hollow

$4,329,725

$3,464,083

25%

< $1000/sqft

Clarendon Heights

$3,955,000

$2,400,000

65%

North Panhandle

$3,595,000

$1,156,500

211%

Ashbury Heights

$3,476,286

$3,004,167

16%

Marina

$3,457,500

$3,013,500

15%

Mission Dolores

$3,204,750

N/A

St. Francis Wood

$2,898,500

$1,893,000

53%

San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

The condominium sector continued its strong upward trajectory, with its average sales price of $1.116 million up 10 percent from Q4 2013. This figure was also the second-highest in the market’s history. With 598 units closed, sales volume was down 10 percent year-over-year—a byproduct of the inventory shortage that has continued to push prices up all year. The average 39 DOM for the area was relatively in line with what one would expect of this fast-paced market. It should be noted that thousands of condominium units are currently under construction, with several of these projects expected to come on the market sometime in 2016. The $2.743 billion in net sales for condominiums during 2014 was a 7 percent gain from 2013 and 28 percent gain from 2012.

SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco County Condominiums

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$1,116,435

$909

change

16%

-2%

Q3 2014

$1,103,615

$924

Q4 2014

$1,116,435

$909

change

10%

Q4 2013

$1,017,701

$848

Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

5136+ 56+ 45+ 43+ 46+ 55+ 48+ 45+ 46+ 69+ 66+ 58+ 50+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

39+3836+3837+3935+4035+3938+41 +46 +5049+5152+5854+55 Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Units that required no price change took in 107 percent of their initial offer, while sellers who tested the market still recouped 94 percent of their initial price. Both of these were improvements for sellers from Q4 2013.

Sales Q4 2014 Q4 2013

without price change with price change 7% 6%

-6% -7%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

The 83 percent jump in Sea Cliff was an aberration due to just one sale, and the 82 percent gain in Cow Hollow came largely from three units selling in a new luxury building. Glen Park, Lake Street and the Financial District all posted impressive year-over-year gains of 50 percent, 46 percent and 41 percent, respectively.

Neighborhood

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Sea Cliff

$2,050,000

$1,120,000

83%

Presidio Heights

$1,988,333

$1,744,333

14%

Cow Hollow

$1,808,102

$993,375

82%

Financial District

$1,750,143

$1,243,500

41%

Lake Street

$1,586,875

$1,088,000

46%

> $1000/sqft

Russian Hill

$1,579,500

$1,643,545

-4%

< $1000/sqft

Glen Park

$1,485,000

$988,875

50%

Marina

$1,478,333

$1,215,004

22%

Pacific Heights

$1,466,190

$1,450,057

Clarendon Heights

$1,438,000

N/A

San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Extremely low inventory levels continue to persist in the MidPeninsula, where the total of 1,107 homes sold was down 28 percent from the previous quarter. Prices remain high as the average home sale of $1.394 million was up 12 percent year-overyear. The dilemma that area sellers face is that while massive profits are immediately at hand, the options for finding new homes in this tight market are not. The county continued to show less than a 30-day supply of homes this quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;a large reason why the average DOM is less than a month in this vastly in-demand market.

SAN MATEO COUNTY

San Mateo County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$1,394,157

$698

change

-2%

Q3 2014

$1,420,535

$680

Q4 2014

$1,394,157

$698

change

12%

-12%

11%

Q4 2013

$1,245,201

$627

Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

4733+ 51+ 46+ 46+ 36+ 55+ 54+ 36+ 40+ 64+ 53+ 55+ 41+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 76+ 55+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

47+47 48+ 48+ 50+ 47+ 45+ 51+ 47+ 46+ 45+ 53+ 56+ 52+ 58+ 64+ 66+ 63+ 75+ 78+ 70+ Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 5 percent on top of initial list price, while those that required a price change only took in 88 percent. This latter number has much to do with sellers simply shooting for astronomical figures—a strategy that has certainly worked for some.

Sales

without price change with price change

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Atherton posted a hefty 42 percent year-over-year gain on average sales price, with the affluent neighborhood seeing an average transaction of nearly $6 million. The largest of these 20-plus sales was a $14.8 million closing on Mandarin Way.

Q4 2014

-12%

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Q4 2013

-10%

Atherton

$5,982,609

$4,225,511

42%

Hillsborough

$3,793,532

$3,415,759

11%

Woodside

$3,015,250

$3,042,691

-1%

Portola Valley

$2,334,500

$2,681,333

-13%

Menlo Park

$1,966,697

$1,823,742

Burlingame

$1,775,898

$1,623,152

> $1000/sqft

San Carlos

$1,418,458

$1,263,951

12%

< $1000/sqft

Foster City

$1,400,639

$1,253,826

12%

Belmont

$1,320,670

$1,138,854

16%

Millbrae

$1,312,895

$1,235,942

San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Like the Peninsula, Marin County posted strong average sales price figures that were slightly offset by low inventory and belowaverage sales volume totals. The $1.37 million average home sale was up 15 percent from Q4 2013, and was the third-highest figure in the marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s history. These homes experienced an average 65 DOM, an 18 percent rise from the previous quarter as buyers have exercised a bit more restraint after the feeding frenzy that consumed much of 2014. The total of 519 homes sold was down 16 percent from the previous quarter and 6 percent from Q4 2013. This was the second-lowest sales volume total for the area in the past seven quarters.

MARIN COUNTY

Marin County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$1,370,066

$575

change

18%

-2%

Q3 2014

$1,365,749

$584

Q4 2014

$1,370,066

$575

change

15%

10%

Q4 2013

$1,195,275

$524

Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

5235+ 57+ 47+ 45+ 37+ 55+ 52+ 44+ 43+ 67+ 66+ 59+ 42+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

49+5451+ 47+5350+4847+5350+5253+6162+6070+6968+69 Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

$1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

When no price change was required, homes netted a modest 2 percent on top of initial list price, which has been a fairly typical number for the area. Sellers who tested the market took in 90 percent of initial asking price, which was a 2 percent gain from Q4 2013.

Sales Q4 2014 Q4 2013

without price change with price change 2% 2%

-10% -12%

Average Sales Price by City The Top Ten

Belvedere posted a 63 percent year-over-year average sales price gain as all six properties sold this quarter went above $2 million. Stinson Beach also posted a strong 37 percent gain, with an arearecord $8 million closing among its seven transactions.

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Belvedere

$3,823,333

$2,344,333

63%

Ross

$3,740,385

$4,242,389

-12%

Tiburon

$2,929,481

$2,402,739

22%

Stinson Beach

$2,901,429

$2,119,014

37%

Kentfield

$1,971,100

$2,147,746

-8%

Larkspur

$1,629,667

$1,499,115

Nicasio

$1,604,123

N/A

< $900/sqft

Mill Valley

$1,575,178

$1,402,093

12%

< $700/sqft

Corte Madera

$1,492,568

$1,178,940

27%

< $500/sqft

Sausalito

$1,480,000

$1,384,925

Marin County Single-Family Homes Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft

Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Napa County continued to display great market strength after posting an all-time average sales price high in Q3 2014. The $734,931 average home sale this quarter was both an 8 percent gain from Q4 2013 and the strongest fourth quarter in Napa Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s history. The area remains a popular option for those priced out of the seven-figure regions of Marin County, MidPeninsula and San Francisco. However, Napa County was no exception to this quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s inventory shortages. The 269 homes sold in total was down 13 percent from Q4 2013 and was the lowest sales volume among the seven counties we represent. The average 88 DOM was a standard figure for the area.

NAPA COUNTY

Napa County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$734,931

$371

change

-11%

-9%

Q3 2014

$827,855

$406

Q4 2014

$734,931

$371

change

Q4 2013

$681,692

$352

Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

3326+ 34+ 33+ 28+ 29+ 36+ 34+ 32+ 31+ 42+ 38+ 36+ 26+ 36+ 38+ 30+ 21+ 34+ 29+ 27+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

500 400 300 200 100 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

46+ 42+ 45+ 55+ 45+ 43+ 49+ 43+ 51+ 49+ 50+ 53+ 64+ 53+ 67+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

As sellers tested the market’s ceiling, initial list prices were typically not met. Homes that required a price change netted 89 percent of initial asking price. Coupled with a higher DOM than most Bay Area counties, these trends should give some hope to prospective buyers.

Sales

Average Sales Price by City

Yountville saw the strongest gains this quarter. Its 33 percent yearover-year gain managed to push its average home sale above the $1 million mark. Napa proper also performed well with a 16 percent gain from Q4 2013.

without price change with price change

Q4 2014

-2%

-11%

Q4 2013

-12%

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Angwin

$2,240,000

$825,571

171%

St. Helena

$1,053,544

$1,457,503

-28%

Yountville

$1,010,015

$762,083

33%

Calistoga

$823,488

$709,417

16%

Napa

$687,798

$592,954

16%

American Canyon

$422,370

$390,482

Oakville

N/A

$1,800,000

-100%

< $1000/sqft

Pope Valley

N/A

$215,000

-100%

< $900/sqft

Rutherford

N/A

$11,250,000

-100%

Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Sonoma County was one of the few regions to post both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year average sales price gains, with an average home sale of $604,819. This figure was up 10 percent from Q4 2013. Additionally, it was the first time Sonoma County homes have averaged above $600,000 since the first quarter of 2008. Although considered one of the Bay Areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most affordable options, these numbers should only continue to grow. Sales volume was not strong, but the 1,110 homes sold was at least in line with the previous fourth quarter. The average 73 DOM rose a bit as the trend of buyers being less hasty was widespread this quarter. Overall Napa County finished 2014 with an average yearly sales price 13 percent higher than what was seen in 2013.

SONOMA COUNTY

Sonoma County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$604,819

$332

change

18%

-2%

Q3 2014

$594,730

$337

Q4 2014

$604,819

$332

change

10%

Q4 2013

$550,186

$306

Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

5746+ 62+ 57+ 50+ 49+ 58+ 63+ 61+ 58+ 74+ 71+ 63+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+

42+44 4445+ 4240+ 4241+ 3840+ 4544+ 4746+ 5455+ 59+ 59+ 60 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Average Sales Price by City

Homes that required no price change saw minimal gains, while sellers who tested the market were able to recover 91 percent of their initial asking price.

Kenwood continued to surge after a strong third quarter. Its average home sales price of $1.112 million led the county and was a 129 percent gain from Q4 2013. This data comes from seven sales, none of which were major outliers.

Sales Q4 2014 Q4 2013

without price change

with price change

-9%

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

-10%

Kenwood

$1,111,929

$486,067

129%

Glen Ellen

$963,012

$883,857

Sebastopol

$892,381

$641,143

39%

Healdsburg

$891,900

$878,707

Bodega Bay

$835,445

$720,865

16%

Sonoma

$830,182

$747,099

11%

Occidental

$758,218

$708,000

Geyserville

$735,567

$1,123,500

-35%

< $1000/sqft

The Sea Ranch

$669,222

$621,683

< $900/sqft

Petaluma

$586,708

$552,330

Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

The East Bay continued to post strong sales prices, as Alameda County’s $739,297 average home sale was a 12 percent year-overyear gain. It was also the third-highest average in county history. The average 27 DOM before a sale—while up slightly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter—was still the fastest selling pace in the Bay Area. Home sales volume was low here, as inventory shortages continue in this extremely hot market. The 2,397 homes sold was the highest figure among all seven counties, but was still a 5 percent decline year-over-year.

ALAMEDA COUNTY

Alameda County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$739,297

$407

change

-2%

18%

-3%

Q3 2014

$752,599

$418

Q4 2014

$739,297

$407

change

12%

Q4 2013

$657,896

$374

Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

5442+ 60+ 50+ 50+ 43+ 58+ 56+ 53+ 47+ 65+ 59+ 52+ 37+ 52+ 58+ 51+ 36+ 52+ 57+ 48+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

48+4652+5150+4649+4845+4351+54 +5668+ 66+ 79+7574 Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 106 percent of initial asking price. This was a significant jump from Q4 2013 when that figure was 5 percent lower. Sellers who tested the market also fared well, receiving 93 percent of their initial listing.

Sales Q4 2014 Q4 2013

without price change with price change 6% 1%

-7% -4%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Alameda County showed stability across the region, with eight areas posting year-over-year average sales price gains of 10 percent or higher. Chief among these was Albany, which saw a 30 percent year-over-year gain on the average home sale.

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Piedmont

$1,925,414

$1,680,150

15%

Pleasanton

$1,110,409

$1,010,177

10%

Berkeley

$1,059,537

$961,686

10%

Dublin

$911,596

$835,622

Fremont

$910,197

$784,606

16%

Albany

$868,941

$669,544

30%

Alameda

$825,097

$751,799

10%

Livermore

$678,729

$643,918

< $700/sqft

Union City

$657,403

$603,987

< $500/sqft

Castro Valley

$651,040

$582,625

12%

Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

Contra Costa posted its third-highest average sales price ever, with $632,261 realized on the average home. This was a 7 percent gain year-over-year, and helped the county finish 2014 with $6.348 billion in total yearly salesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;up 10 percent from 2013. These gains occurred even as sales volume stayed rather low. The 2,325 total sales in Q4 were down 17 percent from the previous quarter, and up just slightly from Q4 2013. The average 32 DOM rose slightly, but will continue to stay low in 2015 as Contra Costa County remains one of the most affordable options in Bay Area housing.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2014

$632,261

$303

change

-8%

21%

-6%

Q3 2014

$684,636

$323

Q4 2014

$632,261

$303

change

13%

Q4 2013

$592,632

$286

Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

36+ 2435+ 2927+ 2532+ 28+ 2634+ 3025+ 2027+ 2923+ 1827+ 2823+ 38+33 43+ 4439+ 3641+ 37+ 46+ 47+ 4962+ 6361+ 5969+ 63 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200

Q4’09 Q1‘10 Q2‘10 Q3‘10 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change took in 102 percent of initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market netted 93 percent of their initial offer. These numbers would indicate that Contra Costa was one of the most well-balanced counties in terms of what buyers were willing to spend and what sellers were willing to accept.

Sales

without price change with price change

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

There were no major gains year-over-year on a granular level. Yet Walnut Creek, Orinda and Alamo posted average sales price gains of 16 percent, 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively

City

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

change

Q4 2014

-7%

Diablo

$1,934,256

$2,391,333

-19%

Q4 2013

-9%

Alamo

$1,602,367

$1,473,250

Blackhawk

$1,576,280

$1,601,105

-2%

Lafayette

$1,367,643

$1,341,206

Orinda

$1,366,622

$1,209,152

13%

Danville

$1,243,536

$1,179,027

Moraga

$1,150,056

$1,095,640

Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

Walnut Creek

$965,388

$828,813

16%

< $1000/sqft

Kensington

$945,429

$896,613

San Ramon

$941,798

$895,932

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014

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Page 28 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2014