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Long Beach Business Journal
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mand influenced by government policy initiatives to clean up litter and pollution. This type of equipment is now more in demand than other U.S. exports like medical devices, Vitner said, mostly because of the global economy slowdown and competition from Europe. The economic slowdown in Europe has caused a domino effect. For example, California companies that import Asian goods used in products destined for Europe are experiencing a reduced demand. “Europeans are still sinking in the swamp,” Drobnick said, noting the French economy is likely to shrink and Germany will see minimal growth. On the imports side, Drobnick said sequestration is beginning to impact consumer demand. Individuals who have been unemployed for six months or more will start seeing cuts to assistance, and even low-income earners will have to stretch their dollars further because sequestration cuts to programs will impact services. “Consumer spending is going to be lower,” Drobnick said. Ben Hackett, principal at international maritime research and advisory consultancy Hackett Associates, LLC, told the Business Journal the sequester is the biggest fear fac-
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tor in what may or may not happen to trade numbers this year. “Growth is slightly weaker, but we expect more constant growth than declines,” Hackett said. “The only danger is if this sequester gets out of hand. Who knows what will happen three or four months down the road.” For now, Hackett said projections are for 3.5 percent growth this year over last year across the U.S. Vitner noted that, while California may be faring slightly better than the nation economically, the state isn’t a driving force behind the growth of imports. “U.S. domestic demand seems to be holding up well,” he said. “GDP [gross domestic product] growth in the first quarter looks like it’s going to be close to 3 percent. Private sector growth should be stronger. That should keep imports relatively strong.” Vitner noted that the industry is approaching its busiest season of the year – summer – when companies are restocking their shelves for fall (back-toschool) and winter (holiday) shopping. While the latest outlook by the LAEDC predicts 2013 and 2014 to be positive years for global economic improvement and increased trade volumes among the ports’ partners, an updated forecast is being prepared. LAEDC’s Colin Maynard said to expect significant changes in growth projections. ■