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Labour Market News

July 06, 2012

Jobs Overview — Second Quarter 2012

2012-06

2012-03

2011-12

Canada Ontario SWO 2011-09

2011-06

2011-03

2010-12

2010-09

2010-06

2010-03

2009-12

2009-09

2009-06

2009-03

2008-12

The most noticeable change on the Ontario labour mar- 63.5 ket is the sharp decrease in the employment rate among 63 the cities in the South-Western Ontario. During the 62.5 May, 2012 the employment rate in SWO dropped by 62 0.29%. Moreover, April has demonstrated even sharper decrease This issue: 61.5 in employment rate (0.46%). Although the overall decrease in the employment rate during the last two months of the second quar- 61  Employment ter was 0.76%, during the first month of the quarter the market 60.5 drops 0.59% in SWO experienced an increase in employment by 0.16%. The employ- 60 ment rate in SWO is now at 62.04%. Taking into account all the Looking at second quarter se monthly changes, we can conclude that the overall quarterly labour market change in this labour market indicator has been -0.59%. This is Fig 1. Employment rate trends news by indus- the largest drop in the employment rate in South-Western Ontartry io since the fourth quarter of 2010. During that time the employment rate dropped by 0.89%.

Special feature: The overall employment rate in Canada has been increasing throughout the most of the second quarter.  Some Health However it stayed the same at 61.9% over June, 2012. The overall increase in the second quarter has been Related Facts 11 0.2%. Although there has been a substantial increase in the emin the Waterloo ployment rate in SWO, the indicator for Ontario did not change 10 Region 9 8

Canada Ontario

2012-06

2012-03

2011-12

SWO 2011-09

2011-06

2011-03

2010-12

2010-09

2010-06

2010-03

2009-12

2009-09

2009-06

2009-03

2008-12

Labour Market 7 News is published 6 quarterly, provid- 5 ing an economist’s 4 view of labour market trends and policy issues. Fig 2. Unemployment rate trends

over the second quarter of 2012. Ontario employment rate remains at the level of 61.3%, which indicates a reduction in employment rate in the other parts of Ontario. While the unemployment rate in South-Western Ontario has increased since the first quarter by 0.28%, the participation rate dropped by 0.45%. Similarly, the unemployment rate in Ontario has increased by 0.2% and became 7.8% which is above Canadian unemployment rate by 0.6%. Unlike in Ontario, the federal unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2% reaching 7.2%.

Changes in Ontario Employment by industry sector, April - June 2012 The quarterly change in the employment in Ontario can be broken down by industry sector. Figures 3 and 4 show the percentage change in the employment in each sector in Ontario. Clearly, the increase in employment in the goodsproducing sector is about

twice as large as in the service-producing sector. Agricultural sector and Business, Building and other support services sector experienced the largest increases in the employment in Ontario this quarter – 34.2% and 29.15% respectively. Professional, scientific and technical services industry demonstrated the largest drop in employment this quarter – by 9.36%, while there has not been any employ-

Utilities

2.75%

Manufacturing

3.06%

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas

5.29%

Total Change in Goodsproducing sector

5.58%

Construction

Agriculture

9.64%

ment reduction in the goods-producing industries. These changes are calculated based on the changes in number of employees in each sector. Since the unemployment rate in Ontario has not really changed this quarter, the increased employment is a sign of an increase in the labour force and the number of job seekers.

Professional and technical services Trade Transportation and warehousing Health care and social assistance Public administration Culture and recreation Total Change in Services-producing sector Finance, insurance, real estate Other services Educational services 34.20% Building and other support services

Fig 3. Changes in Employment in Goods-producing sector

-9.36% -0.90% -0.60%

Fig 4. Changes in Employment in Service-producing -0.51% sector

-0.46% 0.99% 2.18% 2.88%

3.09% 8.52%

29.15%

The Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis is an international association of academic and professional economists, based at the School of Business and Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. www.lcerpa.org

Labour Market News Some Health Related Facts in the Waterloo Region There is a growing concern about a shortage of primary care physicians all over Canada in recent years. This concern is not only applied to rural areas, but also to urban areas. We surely hear stories that anyone new to the Waterloo region has some difficulty in finding a family doctor. In this issue of the LCERPA labour market news, I would like to lay out some facts relevant to this concern in the Waterloo region.

Fig 2. Family Physicians per 1000 Population

Fig 1. Trends related to health in Waterloo vs. Canada

Figure 1 shows some trends related to health and accessibility to family physician services in the Waterloo region and Canada during the 2000s, based on the Canadian Community Health Surveys, where the Waterloo region refers to the Waterloo Health Unit. The left panel shows the proportion of individuals who reported either “excellent” or “very good.” There appears to be a stable trend: about 62% and 60% of the population perceived their health being “very good” or “excellent” in the Waterloo and Canada, respectively. The right panel shows the proportions of individuals who have a regular medical doctor. This graph shows that the vast majority of the population in the Waterloo region have a family doctor at one point in time.

Now I turn to some facts on the supply side of family physician services. Figure 2 shows the number of family physicians per 1000 population in 2001 and 2007 (2001 data is from the National Family Physician Workforce Survey and 2007 data is from the National Physician Survey). It clearly shows that the Waterloo/Wellington region1 has fewer physicians per population than the national average. One possible explanation for this is that the people in Waterloo have their physician visits less frequently than the national average. This probably corresponds to better labour market condition in the region. Especially, during the 2000s, the unemployment rates were much lower than the rest of Canada (the average unemployment rate is 6.24% in the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo metropolitan area, compared to the national average of 7.09%).

___________________ 1

Due to the confidentiality reason, the Waterloo Health Unit and the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health Unit are combined.

This issue of the LCERPA Labour Market News was prepared by Dr. Hideki Ariizumi, Associate Professor at Laurier’s Department of Economics and Kirill Savine, LCERPA research assistant. Contact Dr. Ariizumi at 519-884-0710 ext. 2277 or email: hariizumi@wlu.ca


LCERPA Labour Market News - July 2012