International
ExxonMobil sees natural gas as the world’s fastest growing fuel to 2020
Photo: ©istockphoto.com/MsLightBox
By Pat Roche
ExxonMobil expects natural gas to fuel more than a quarter of global electricity generation by 2030.
Natural gas will be the world’s fastest growing major energy source in the next two decades, overtaking coal as the second-largest global energy source behind oil, says energy giant ExxonMobil Corporation. The company made the prediction on Jan. 27 in releasing the 2011 edition of its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030. Asia is forecast to have the largest growth with gas demand almost tripling by 2030. Substantial growth is also expected in Europe and North America. “The forecasts...show a shift toward natural gas as businesses and governments look for reliable, affordable and cleaner ways to meet energy needs,” said Rex Tillerson, ExxonMobil’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Newly unlocked supplies of shale gas and other unconventional energy sources will be vital in meeting this demand.” U.S. President Barack Obama’s new plan to double U.S. clean power output is expected to help boost gas usage. U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said the plan represents roughly a doubling of electricity generation from cleaner power
sources in less than 25 years. The plan, introduced by Obama in his State of the Union speech on Jan. 25, would require power plants to generate 80 per cent clean electricity by 2035. Ex xonMobil expects total global energy demand to be about 35 per cent higher in 2030 than in 2005 and energy demand in the developing nations to rise more than 70 per cent. However, global growth would be far higher without projected efficiency improvements, the forecast says. Efforts to ensure reliable, affordable energy—while also limiting greenhouse gas emissions—will lead to policies in many countries that put a cost on CO2 emissions, the report predicts. As a result, gas will become increasingly competitive as an economic fuel for electricity generation as its use results in up to 60 per cent less CO2 emissions than coal in generating electricity. Demand for gas for power generation is expected to rise by about 85 per cent from 2005 to 2030 when gas will provide more than a quarter of the world’s electricity needs. Gas demand is rising in every
region of the world and is strongest in developing countries, particularly China, where demand in 2030 will be about six times what it was in 2005. ExxonMobil said its outlook is based on a detailed analysis of about 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 fuel types, and it is underpinned by economic and population projections and expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technology advancements. Rising electricity demand—and the choice of fuels used to generate that electricity—represent a key focus area, which will have a major impact on the global energy picture over the next 20 years, the company says. ExxonMobil expects the number of cars and trucks on the road to increase by 400 million vehicles by 2030—and oil will remain the main transportation fuel source. “No technology has been able to outperform gasoline and diesel as convenient and economic fuels for consumers,” said Bill Colton, Ex xonMobil’s vicepresident of corporate strategic planning. “The weight of a fuel is critical for transportation.... Even for cars, it’s hard to beat the high energy density of gasoline. A typical car gas tank contains...only 100 pounds of gasoline, yet it can motor a 3,000-pound car for 400 miles at 60 miles an hour,” he said. Nuclear also shows strong growth. “We believe nuclear is an attractive alternative, yet we acknowledge there’ll be practical limits as to how fast new nuclear plants can be sited and built,” Colton said. And while solar and biofuels will be the fastest-growing fuel sources—almost 10 per cent growth—by 2030 they’ll still account for only 2.5 per cent of the global energy demand, ExxonMobil predicts. CO2 emissions are expected to increase by about 25 per cent by 2030, significantly less than overall energy demand increases. Efficiency gains across all sectors of economies worldwide should curb energy demand growth through 2030 (compared to historical trends) by an estimated 65 per cent. — DAILY OIL BULLETIN OIL & GAS INQUIRER • MARCH 2011
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