Figure 22: Indicative estimates of the trend in balance of trade based on a stylised model, 20032011 (£ million) 1,200 1,000 800 600
400 200 0 2003
2004
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Source: Capital Economics' indicative estimates calculated with States of Jersey and Office for National Statistics data
Turning to tourism, Jersey attracted 685,000 foreign visitors in 2010, who spent an estimated £230 million on the island – which, among others, boosted hotel and accommodation revenues by £110 million and pubs’ and restaurants’ takings by £50 million.14 Conversely, Jersey residents travel abroad for work and pleasure, with their spending offsetting the local earnings from visitors. There are limited data on outbound travel and spending patterns, so it is not possible to draw any firm conclusions on the scale of tourism imports but it is likely that overall Jersey is a small net exporter of tourism. Two or more decades ago, tourism would likely have been a substantial net export for the island but budget airlines, more stable currencies and a growing British taste for more distant and exotic destinations has limited the export potential here. There is two-way trade in other services too but, typically, Jersey is a net importer of services other than finance and tourism. For transport, for example, air services operating to the island are disproportionately crewed, fuelled, maintained and operated by firms off-island. Almost all electricity is supplied by a submarine interconnector from France. Meanwhile, there will likely be a trade deficit on healthcare and education, with Jersey residents making use of the United Kingdom’s private healthcare facilities and their children attending British universities and colleges (often at the expense of States of Jersey coffers).
Although Jersey runs a trade surplus with the rest of the world overall, its balance with the United Kingdom alone is quite different. 14
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Sources: Capital Economics’ analysis of Jersey Tourism annual report 2010.