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SEE APPENDIX IN THIS ISSUE FOR UPDATED ODDS FROM WYNN!
C2C: When the odds line moves on a horse, is it an adjustment on your part because of observation or a reaction to betting action?
AVELLO: It could be either of the two. Certainly if there’s a race coming up that involves that horse and he runs very well, I may change the odds even if I haven’t taken a bet on him yet. Sometimes it’s a slight drop, sometimes it’s drastic. Sometimes I’ll raise the odds – if a horse is life and death going seven furlongs and we’re looking at a mile and a quarter for the Derby – he could be raised even in an unimpressive victory. C2C: Last year, you had Palace Malice at just 35-1 in January before his 3-year-old return. Did you have intuition on him being a Belmont Stakes winner, a classics-quality horse early on, or was that about a ton of play on him? AVELLO: Yeah, that was all about play. I don’t let my personal emotions get in the way of booking horses. I don’t know who the winner of the Derby is. My job is to get money in that pot on all the horses. What I need to do as an oddsmaker is to raise some as I’m lowering some, trying to make sure the ones I’m raising are now attractive. C2C: What sized plays are typical on the Derby Futures? And what’s the high-end? AVELLO: We’ve had a lot of guys win $100,000 on a horse, sometimes more. Most come in to win $25,000 on a horse. Some don’t want to bet that high. They want to bet a couple hundred on a 20-1 shot to get $4,000. It depends on the individual. Some want to get as much as they can possibly get to win on a horse, and that’s in the 25 to 30 (thousand)
range. After a person makes that wager, we’ll adjust the odds and they’re allowed to bet it again at those new odds. C2C: Who are some horses who took a boatload of money in the past that stand out? AVELLO: Funny Cide took a lot. I didn’t know them at the time, but Jack Knowlton and Gus Williams came in and bet their horse pretty good. Here I was, saying, “He’s by Distorted Humor … he’s a gelding … he’s a New Yorkbred … C’mon, how’s that gonna happen?!” Those guys made quite a bit of money in our Future book, and we became good friends over the years. Sometimes that happens, you give up some money, but you make some friends along the way. I recall Fusaichi Pegasus grabbing money after his first race. I was in a little bit of trouble after that first race. I had a lot of people come in and bet him at a high number, around 200-1, so I got burned on him. Empire Maker was another one; I took a lot of money on him before even his first start. People were right on him – he just didn’t win the Derby.