8
Hi-Line
Nov. 2013
FARM & RANCH
www.havredailynews.com
Moisture on the Hi-Line: Unsure what winter will bring ■ Continued from page 7
Planting, moisture up for much of Big Sky Country The statewide average also is up for both soil moisture and for winter wheat conditions. Listed on the Montana drought committee map are the statewide levels for soil, with topsoil and subsoil moisture levels greater than both last year and the five-year average. Topsoil moisture is listed as 74 percent adequate and surplus compared with 24 percent last year and t h e f i ve - ye a r ave ra ge o f 5 8 p e rc e n t . Subsoil moisture was 71 percent adequate and surplus compared to 15 percent last year and the five-year average of 48 per-
cent. The timing of the moisture also seems to be helping, with winter wheat planting listed as nearing completion and emerging just ahead of the five-year average due to timely moisture, the site reports. Much of the rest of the country still is not in as good a shape as Montana. The U.S Drought Monitor, which lists part of southwestern Montana as abnormally dry or in moderate drought with none in the rest of the state, shows much of a region from California and the southern half of Oregon through parts of Nebraska and Kansas and all of Texas, extending into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi as dry to in drought. Those listings include a few spots of “exceptional drought” — a rating created early last decade to describe the conditions in northcentral Montana.
What will winter bring? Exactly what moisture the winter will bring to north-central Montana is up in the air, with varying forecasts by different predictors ranging from farmers’ almanacs to National Weather Service. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts that the central part of the United States — including Montana — will be piercingly cold through the winter with about-normal snowfall. Meanwhile, the Old Farmers’ Almanac predicts colder-than-normal winter temperatures here, with lower-than-normal precipitation and snowfall. Accuweather reports on its website that Montana should expect significantly higherthan-normal precipitation, in rain and snow, while Montana temperatures will be below normal. Weather Service and The Weather Channel have fairly similar projections for winter in this part of the United States — anything could happen. The Weather Channel forecasts “variable” conditions across Montana through most of the winter, while Weather Service says that, with neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific not expected to bring either an El Niño or a La Niña weather pat-
tern, the chances for this region to see a severe, normal or mild winter are about the same. In an El Niño pattern, Montana typically sees a warmer, dryer winter, while La Niña typically brings cooler, wetter winters. With neutral patterns in the equatorial Pacific, neither of those is more likely.
Snow already hitting Even if the long-range forecasts for winter in north-central Montana are contradictory or uncertain, some winter already has hit, both in Montana and the rest of the country. The first snowfall hit in the Havre area starting Sunday, Oct. 27, a few weeks after a severe storm hit that touched parts of Montana and Wyoming and dumped several feet of snow in South Dakota, killing two people and tens of thousands of head of cattle. More storms blew in a week before the snow hit northern north-central Montana, bringing cold temperatures and snow across the Dakotas through the Great Lakes region then pushing east. But, again, what the duration of the season will bring is unknown.
5
Hi-Line
FARM & RANCH
Nov. 2013
Much of the drought conditions map released at the end of October is washed with blue and green, indicating slightly moist to moderately moist conditions, though still showing dry conditions in the southwest corner of Montana. Even that area has improved from listings on the September map. While Madison and Gallatin counties are listed on the current map as dry and in drought alert, and southwestern Montana and parts of western Montana are listed as slightly dry, in September Madison was listed as extremely dry — in drought — and six other counties were listed as in drought alert. One year ago, the October 2012 map had a completely different story. While parts of northern Montana, including along parts of the Hi-Line, were listed as near normal moisture conditions in October of last year, the southern tier of the state was listed as in drought and most of the central tier of the state, along with northern Rocky Mountain Front counties, were listed as in drought alert. Precipitation in the late fall and early last winter helped bump up moisture in north-central and northeastern Montana, although much of the rest of the state still was looking at drought conditions. Then heavy rains — that also led to federal flood disaster declarations across the state, including for Blaine, Chouteau and Hill counties — started jacking up precipitation, although not in all parts of the state.
Havre Daily News/File photo Water flows over a road June 4 on Rocky Boy’s Indian Reservation. While the heavy rain in May and June led to a presidential disaster declaration due to flooding including in Blaine, Chouteau and Hill counties, the moisture then and through the year has led to high levels of soil moisture and listings of moist to very moist conditions for most of the Hi-Line. While flood disasters were declared for parts of the state, a drought disaster later was declared in for Butte-Silverbow. But the precipitation in the last few months has turned much of the state around, Continued precipitation in this part of the state has led to high levels of moisture, with Havre recording its seventh-wettest year through mid-October — 17.31 inches Oct. 28, with the norm for that day 10.31 inches and the normal amount for the entire year about 11.2 inches — and the chance for more moisture to set a record year for precipitation by Dec. 31. The moisture seemed to help crops in north-central Montana, with some producers saying they saw the best crops ever grown in this region. At the same time, hail, spotty in some parts of northcentral Montana to wide swaths in other parts of the region, wiped out some of those crops.
■ Continued on page 6
www.havredailynews.com