FUTUROLOGY
Predetermined elements like growing populations, ageing of the developed world, increased sensitivity to environmental issues, increased stress between society and technology will have great influence during the coming years. Some critical uncertainties like the effects of dramatically advancing technology, advancements in the materials science, globalization, terrorism, rapid climate change, energy sources, togheter with global epidemics will be the most relevant in the next decade.*1 The increasing complexity of high-tech systems, like electric grids, the Internet, satellites and the risk of them failing can have a great impact to the way we live our lives. They are created of too many moving parts and they produce incredible amounts of data that had to be observed, analyzed, and managed. In case things go wrong, people will need to have a quick response, perhaps to quick to manage. Systems in future need to be designed in a way that will give the people adequate time to manage failure. They will need to be flexible enough, so that parts of the system will continue to operate if something gets wrong. Systems need to be designed within the human limits of management.*2 In the near future, the importance of design as an innovation tool and a driver of commercial success and social change, is more likely to increase. Ironically, the increasing importance of design has also become it’s potential threat. The field has been attracted by other professions, that in the opinion of some, are better equipped to deal with complex business and social problems than the traditional designers from the arts and crafts schools. Therefore, designers will need to improve their analytical skills and their ability to collaborate with other fields in order not to get marginalized.
*1 Petersen, John; INDEX: Magazine; Imagine The Impossible – Key Trends In Human Life; Publisher: INDEX: Design To Improve Life; September Issue, 2004 (Pg. 21) *2 Nussbaum, Bruce; Business Week, Technology: Just Make It Simpler; McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. September Issue, 2003 (Cover Story)
The new generation of designers is just as likely to engage in energy-saving products and processes, creating human-friendly environments, and even encouraging political participation. Perhaps the only obstacle to designers becoming more involved in solving social problems is the challenge to overcome the traditional mindset of design. Designers rarely think of complex social problems in terms of design, but design has often made difference in fields where is not expected to the part of the solution.
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